NFL Draft 2010 -- Underclassmen Impact
Actually, this should be titled "Special Eligibility Impact," but it doesn't really have the same ring. Leading up to the Senior Bowl, we'll be talking a lot about some great Senior players in the Draft, but not to be ignored is a look at the underclassmen and others who require special eligibility to enter the 2010 Draft. Special Eligibility includes 4th- and even 5th-year seniors who still have the option to return for another year, usually due to a medical exemption.
Today we'll just get an overview of these players, where they are ranked, and how they are valued. We'll start looking at the offensive side of the ball tomorrow, and continue throughout the following weekend and week.
Let's lead off with a chart to quickly evaluate relative value:
*all numerical rankings refer to nfldraftscout rankings.
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | |
| QB |
Sam Bradford(7) Jimmy Clausen(9) |
Jevan Snead(103) | ||
| RB |
Jonathon Dwyer(18) Jahvid Best(30) |
Ryan Matthews(35) |
Toby Gerhart(86) Joe McKnight(71)
|
|
| WR |
Dez Bryant(11) Golden Tate(16) |
Damian Williams(39) Arrelious Benn(55) Demaryius Thomas(50) |
Dezmon Briscoe(70) Carlton Mitchell(68) |
Mike Williams(114) |
| TE | Jermaine Gresham(37) |
Rob Gronkowski(42) Aaron Hernandez(53) |
||
| OT |
Anthony Davis(20) Bruce Campbell(27) Bryan Bulaga(24) |
|||
| OC | Maurkice Pouncey(38) | |||
| DE |
Carlos Dunlap(13) Derrick Morgan(8) Everson Griffen(14) |
Jason Pierre-Paul(43) | Jason Worilds(67) | Thaddeus Gibson(125) |
| DT | Gerald McCoy(3) | Brian Price(34) | ||
| LB | Rolando McClain(10) | Navorro Bowman(46) | Rennie Curran(89) | |
| CB | Joe Haden(5) |
Dominique Franks(51) |
Donovan Warren(75) Amari Spievey(91) Kareem Jackson(69) |
|
| S |
Eric Berry(2) Earl Thomas(19) |
Morgan Burnett(57) Chad Jones(47) |
Major Wright(78) |
| Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | CFA | |
| RB | Darius Marshall(268) |
Toney Baker(441) Shawnbrey McNeal(392) |
||
| WR | Antonio Brown(206) | Chris Bell(308) | ||
| DE | Kevin Basped (170) | Clifton Geathers(216) | Jerome Hayes(--) | |
| DT | Linval Joseph(180) | Abe Koroma(419) | ||
| CB | Joshua Moore(160) |
Dennis Rogan(416) Jerrell Norton(616) |
||
| S | Reshad Jones(141) |
|
4 recs |
37 comments
|
Comments
Great stuff, thanks for your work
I love looking at all the different draft stuff. I think the Broncos could/will be major players for a lot of these guys.
Anybody have an opinion on whether Price has potential as a 5-tech?
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 3:44 PM MST reply actions
I think he will be a really go 5 Tech
I actually think he is strong enough to play NT at the next level if we needed him to. Brian Price is ranked in the 1st round by most and I would take him over Dan Williams or Mt Cody
by gnarlybroncodude on Jan 21, 2010 4:10 PM MST up reply actions
That's what I was thinking.
Brian Price plays with tremendous leverage and strength, so I think he’d be a solid fit at NT. Don’t know if I’d takehim before Dan Williams, cause I think Dan has a lot more potential to dominate the position as both a rusher and run stopper. Consistency (in his effort mostly) seems to be the big problem at the moment.
Anyway, I don’t see any reason he couldn’t play out there. Especially, if he continues to develop as a pass rusher. I was disappointed to see Marvin Austin, UNC, return to school as I thought his combination of quickness and power were excellent fits at 3-4 DE.
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
Thoughts on Price
I won’t get to him for a few days, so I’ll share some thoughts here and then readdress them later on, too.
He has that quickness and instinct that will make him valuable, no matter where he goes or what he is asked to do. All things being equal, that will always set him apart from the majority of his peers. I love that he has also mastered leverage, as that is the most fundamental tool a player can have. To have a natural grasp of it speaks volumes about where he can be in a few years.
That said, to compete at NT, or at 5-tech, I think he needs some serious tutoring over a period of time, like maybe a full year, similar to what Chris Baker is getting right now. Out of the box I think it would be a lot of fun to just sort of set him lose in certain packages, but as a one-gapper I don’t know how effective he would be in fitting in with our scheme (whatever it ends up being) if he is also allowed to play the way he has been.
But since the majority of good 5-techs are projects anyways, I say why not. His upside is fun to contemplate.
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 21, 2010 5:06 PM MST up reply actions
I still don't feel comfortable with understanding what DT's project to 3-4...
…DE’s, which don’t, so thanks for the information.
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 5:37 PM MST up reply actions
I have the same problem
I hope we can get Steve Nichols or one of our other ‘Xs and 0s’ guys to jump on the question. My approach is to view somatotype and technique/skills as the two basic criteria. Another consideration is talent level. An added consideration is whether we’re looking to fill the strongside or weakside, and the specialization is not as pronounced in the 3-4 but some DE34 candidates are clearly stronger at either run defense or pass rushing so projecting them to a DE34 would take these attributes into consideration, and a minimal level rule still applies since they ‘must’ be able handle more than one blocker and/or defense the run at a minimal level of competency.
Some thoughts on Price — my impression is that he’s suited more to undertackle but he sounds like a reasonably good fit for the weakside DE34, since speed may be his strong suit. Firstly, I’ve never watched him play (that I recall) so I’m going to be putting a lot of emphasis on this all-star and combine performances. Matt McGuire’s scouting on him make him sound very good. Things like hands, instincts, ability to keep defenders off his body, body control, etc., all sound like assets that would make him a fine DE34.
Curiously, I looked for information to answer this question before (regarding him). I believe I was dealt with the impression that he was a 4-3 type and wouldn’t be a good fit for us, which I found somewhat unsatisfactory because of the lack of knowledge factor mentioned in a previous post. I could understand why a player might be more suited to the 4-3 but I didn’t know enough to rule out re-training him for the 3-4.
The crucial trait that I see as important is the ability to handle more than one defender (which some penetrating one-gapper can’t do) and this requires strength, size and and good lower frame. It also requires the skills that come with these responsibilities, so players who show good hand technique and have shown the ability to take on more than one blocker project well in the 3-4. My heuristic is DT/DE hybrid characteristics, so DTs who can pass rush and DEs who can run defend are good projects, and they also need the somatotype, too.
Again, I admit to my ignorance on this subject, and I invite comments by anyone else on the subject. I just so happens that I’ve also wondered about how you determine whether a DL can play the 3-4 before and specifically regarding Price’s suitability.
no goats, no glory.
Thanks!
That helps. I get the distinct impression on Price that he doesn’t project as a guy that can successfully take on two blockers, as there are questions about his lower body strength. So he probably isn’t a strong side DE.
However, his athleticism and quickness seems to make him a viable WS candidate— although at 6-2 its not clear to me that he has the length (or how much height matters, for that matter…)
I love his motor, work ethic and intangibles, though. So I’ll be keeping him on my own personal short list of favorites until somebody convinces me otherwise.
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 9:43 PM MST up reply actions
Thoughts
I have never formalized the problems, but I look at it a lot like Colinski does, where DE3-4 and NT both start from a fundamental point, based on the nature of their assignment:
Assignment: Take on two blockers(perhaps more specifically, free up the LBs)
Requirements: Primary, Strength. Secondary, Size. Also should exhibit certain intangibles, relating to attitude (taking on 2 blockers means no stats for you). A proven technician is a plus, especially as the player tends towards a 5-technique, where handwork becomes more critical.
The thing about strength, is that it doesn’t matter how you have it, as long as you have it. Price is a good example of a player that uses his natural leverage to increase his strength: he plays like a bigger guy(being smaller stature wise helps). But he still needs to be of a certain size or the raw physics of handing off a block come into play. A 260 6-2 NT would just get batted around like a billiard ball. Also, size translates to energy (stored energy) and a larger player can take a pounding longer than a small one. I have no idea how much of an offset is caused by conditioning issues, though. Obviously being large and fit is better, since it is the best of both worlds. Unfortunately, some players are no longer large after they get fit…
Often, size trumps strength, but only because it is a passive form of force, usually in the form of gravity and momentum, but you can only gain so much momentum in a small space, and gravity can be turned against the player if he is rolled or cut. A guy like McCoy is a very nice balance of size and strength, who doesn’t suffer significantly from size problems.
Asking a NT to take on 2 blockers is the first assignment, his second assignment is to play a technique that allows him to get his hands free and wrap a ball carrier on the way by. Only the best NTs are asked to do this. 5-Techs are expected to be able to do this, but not necessarily all of the time against doubles. But when they can get a free side, they are expected to shed 100% of the time.
So to carry out work above and beyond his primary purpose, he now needs to be a technique guy. Not only must he tie up two blockers, he must also keep their hands away from his interior. LOTS of ways to do this, but only two ways to get it started: get your hands into them first, or keep their hands off you. (things like altering the timing of your jump, handwork, altering your gap responsibility are all methods of achieving those two goals).
When I am evaluating a DT for NT or DE3-4 worthiness, I usually check first to see if they have any experience with two blockers. Players that are usually one gap all the time, need to next be evaluated to see if they wear down easy or are pushed out of plays or laterally, both signs that they are kept off of two blocks for a reason. Sometimes guys just don’t play in a scheme or play with certain types of players that never give them the opportunity to show their strength. DTs with powerful bull rushes often have the ability to transition to a 5-tech, but if they don’t have sound technique, they often can’t make the transition because they get tied up too early.
This is starting to ramble… anyways, Strength, by hook or by crook, with naturally stronger and larger players being favored.
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 21, 2010 10:42 PM MST up reply actions
Size is actually directly related to force and momentum, assuming that accleration and velocity aren't compromised.
size trumps strength, but only because it is a passive form of force, usually in the form of gravity and momentum
Newton’s second law is Force (F) = Mass (m) X Acceleration (a)
So, Force is linearly related to the increase in mass, assuming a constant acceleration. So, saying that a 260 lb guy is moving at 1 ft/s. That is 260 lb-f of force. If a guy is 300 lb, he can exert 40 lb-f more than the 260 lb guy, assuming he moves with the same acceleration.
Momentum (P) = mass (m) X velocity (v)
This is the similar to Force, except Momentum includes only the existing velocity. So, accleration isn’t included. Momentum is still linear related to mass, assuming that velocity remains constant.
Like you said, it can be hard to get up a big head of steam in a short distance, which is why Force is probably the entity you would use. The D lineman would have to accelerate using his initial burst out of his stance to propel his full body weight into the offensive lineman.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Why has nobody made a live-action game of Chutes and Ladders? I'd be first in line.
by kentuckybronco on Jan 21, 2010 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
I toyed with doing this a few years back
I wanted to get a good stopwatch and time Tackles coming off the line of scrimmage. Use this number to calculate speed, and since it is such a short, imprecise measurement, go ahead and treat it like a vector so it can be plugged into the Momentum equation with the player’s weight.
Not exactly precise, but by comparing THOSE numbers, you could get a good idea of comparative “power” from one lineman to another.
To make it even more fun, track them through a game, and find a value for the variance in their play. Then do the same for a few games, or an entire season. That would give you a comparative example of different linemen’s realtime endurance. THEN go through and adjust for double teams, one on ones, specific Olinemen…
Whee.
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 21, 2010 11:17 PM MST up reply actions
Wow, that would be tons of work. Would you even be able to get a time measurement that small?
You’d probably have a better opportunity if you measured the length of time it took to reach the quarterback. I think that would be pretty tough to get an accurate reading during game day. Different offensive linemen would output different forces when they are opposing the force of the defensive linemen. If one offensive lineman is more susceptible to a bull rush than a swim move, then the times may be different.
That’s a very interesting idea, though. The most accurate way I could think of would be to compare and contrast the forces from our guys against other guys who have faced the same offensive lines. For a smaller sample size, analysis could be done on the AFC West games, only. Then you’re focusing on 4 teams and have 8 games for each to crunch numbers.
That would be pretty tough to do outside of a physics lab or something. It would be easier to calculate the force of a Brian Dawkins collision, since his resistance isn’t hindered by any force except the ball carrier.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Why has nobody made a live-action game of Chutes and Ladders? I'd be first in line.
by kentuckybronco on Jan 22, 2010 8:24 AM MST up reply actions
hehe
actually, the setup I had in mind was to be able to play the video on a computer screen, and have a timer running on the screen as well, preferably one that read out to 1000ths of a second. It wouldn’t even have to zero, though that might be preferable to noting a start and end point and then doing repetetive math.
You would get a high frame rate screen capture of the snap + timer, and then analyze the data by stopping on individual frames, with the closest yard mark as a reference. In practice, it might be tough to consistently get an equal yard per snap, or even a good enough view (the pros use a sideline camera shot at ground level, good stuff) to accurately gauge it.
I think you end up measuring a different, though no less valuable, set of criteria if you measure the time it takes to get into the backfield or to the QB.
You make a good point about limiting data collection to the AFC West. Lots of times when I am considering some kind of data, and want to increase the sample size, stay relevant to a Broncos blog, and also not work too hard (last is very important), the 12 games-in-common of the AFC west seem like a good target. It equals 24 total games in terms of analysis, and there is a familiarity to the contests that promotes consideration of minutiae…
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 22, 2010 9:17 AM MST up reply actions
Ahhhhh, that makes much more sense.
The wonders of computers. I was thinking about using the old school stop watches. lol, silly me. I’ve been doing too much paperwork, it must have slipped my mind how powerful computers are for analysis like that……
That would be very interesting. I think that if you did it that way, it seems very possible. Defensive ends or OLBs from the edge would be a perfect target for analysis like this. Often, when they are coming around the edge, the LT or RT backpedals before contact is made, creating the pocket. During that window of time, using your computer timer and video setup, you could get a pretty legit measurement of momentum.
That would be a very interesting study, Jeremy. Just for giggles, I think it would be fun to do a Brian Dawkins Force study, as well, to see how much force it takes to separate a wide receiver from the ball. Oh the fun….
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Why has nobody made a live-action game of Chutes and Ladders? I'd be first in line.
by kentuckybronco on Jan 22, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions
I really like the guy, and, by all indications, he has the McX intangibles...
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 4:27 PM MST up reply actions
I think he'd be much better in a 4-3
CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
Nice
This is a deep rich draft. Another reason to kind of hope for more draft picks via trade.
Anyway, thanks for the breakdown.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Thanks Jeremy
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Its funny how many different websites
rank the prospects differently. I have seen Demaryius Thomas ranked in the 4-5th round by some sites.
by gnarlybroncodude on Jan 21, 2010 4:12 PM MST reply actions
As I understand it...
…NFLDraftScout uses one of the two scouting services used by NFL teams (NFL.Com uses the same reports), so they’re usually a pretty solid indicator.
I’ve found the War Room pretty reliable, too— although they view McClain and Berry completely different than the norm. McClain just moved up to #47 on their board, while Berry checks in at #16.
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 4:27 PM MST up reply actions
How reliable have they been in the past?
Are their top picks busts? Or have they been fairly reliable…and if so, why so low on McClain?
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
for draftscout's reliability
it is very…..consistent. they don’t write editorially about their rankings, so they have little interest in being right or wrong. they just list it how they see it. Scott Wright is along these lines as well, though I still stay with Draftscout. I started reading their rankings about 3 years ago when they were the only place that listed a full 750 player database. that was important to me then, just so I could organize the back half of my draft database, you know, the part iwht the cobwebs and dust on it.
I noticed that they do a great job of keeping track of and being consistent with players, and in what I suppose is a vote of confidence, last year was my first year not entering the freshman class into my database. Instead, I am relying on draftscout’s rankings of those players to keep track of them, and then I will enter them into my database when they finish their sophmore years. Juniors are MUCH easier to track than entering freshman, and I am estimating that I will save at least 30 hours a year by not doing it myself. That is worth about 5 mid level scouts, or one really thorough scout. This year I invested that time in seasons one and two of The Wire…maybe next year I will actually use it to watch a player or two. If there is a draft….
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 21, 2010 5:20 PM MST up reply actions
They're (War Room) not perfect by any means....
…but over the last few years, I’ve found them to be very solid. They don’t rank in terms of where they think they’ll be drafted, but rather how good of NFL players they think they’ll be. Their Top 15 this year are, in order:
Suh, Spiller, De. Thomas, Hayden, Kindle, Bradford, Morgan, T. Williams, Okung, B. Campbell, Bryant, Spikes, Iupati, Dwyer, Price.
They haven’t done a written evaluation of McClain yet, but he just moved from #51 to #47…so obviously they are aware.
Interestingly, they don’t think Berry can play S in the NFL. They describe him more as a nickle corner with the athletic ability to become a special CB…not so good S.
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 5:24 PM MST up reply actions
Campbell a top 15 guy?
Wierd. Is this ranking supposed to inform us as to the top quality attainable by a prospect, or are they actually trying to say Campbell could be one of the top 15 rookies when all is said and done at the end of 2010?
I ask, because I don’t necessarily dislike Campbell, but it would be a stretch to think that he will be able to reach his potential in his rookie season…but over several years I think he could develop into quite a good starter, and worth the money.
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 21, 2010 5:28 PM MST up reply actions
No.
They evaluate based on the player that they think they can become…not necessarily how good of rookie they will be be.
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 5:30 PM MST up reply actions
War Room analysis
Run blocking: Is not dominant, but uses quickness to reach defenders and control them. Tends to struggle to be bend knees and gain proper leverage; doesn’t get a great push off the line. Is best at creating seal blocks. Will stop moving feet upon contact, and does not drive defenders off the line. Is a finesse blocker; lacks nastiness. Plays to whistle.
Pass blocking: Among the best. Has prototypical size and strength; is effective against bull rushers. Uses athleticism and quick footwork to dominate speed rushers. Shows fluid hip movements to counter secondary moves. Could struggle against shorter speed rushers unless he improves ability to bend knees. Must improve hand punch; needs to be more violent and jolting.
Initial quickness: Should be effective, if not dominant. Is good at getting on defenders when firing off the snap. Shows speed to reach linebackers and box out safeties on the second level. Gets set quickly in pass protection, before defenders can take second or third step. When misses with hands, shows the agility to recover in time to protect his QB. Is smooth.
Strength: Can be dominant at point of attack, but must use strength more often. Must learn how to use his ability; when he does, could become a top tackle in run and pass blocking. Must play with a mean streak and intimidate defenders on every play. Has huge upside. Should be able to build his frame to be even stronger.
Mobility: Is elite in this area. Works well in the open field; gets downfield to make blocks for big gains. Knows when to release from defenders to lead on screen passes. Must improve on getting pad level down to keep safeties from getting around him. Must learn not to get his feet too close together on open-field blocks. Has uncanny speed but raw fundamentals.
Bottom line: Campbell, a junior, is among the draft’s most athletically gifted players regardless of position. He should make an immediate impact in the NFL. He is at his best in setting the edge in pass protection and is sound in run blocking. Campbell will need seasoning. He struggled to stay on the field because of nagging injuries and sometimes loses focus. But his upside makes him a definite top-10 selection who could develop into a Pro Bowl left tackle.
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 5:33 PM MST up reply actions
Oops...accidently hit post...
But here’s Campbell’s evaluation as an example of how War Room does it….
So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson
by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 21, 2010 5:34 PM MST up reply actions
Is it just me or does it seem WR's seem to have a higher proportion of extravagant names?
Where are all the Rod Smith’s, John Taylor’s, and Cris Carter’s of the world?
I can’t even pronounce these names anymore! Phonetically anyway… Demaryius…. ary and ari have the same sounding sound…how the F do I wrap my tongue around that?! I will just pronounce it De-mary-us. Or De-mari-us. I can’t do De-mary-i-us…I just can’t, sorry.
Anyway…no wonder WR’s are such primadonnas….give me some Dan Williams or Rolando McClain! Give me some blue collar guys on the team…
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
by Tim Lynch on Jan 21, 2010 4:22 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Well at least future Bronco
Dez White is easy to pronounce! ;)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
You mean Dez Bryant
or are you thinking of another player of whom I’m not aware?
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
Noooooooo
The Mile-High Magic must be rediscovered!
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
Hah, Sorry, yes Bryant
I accidentally thought of the other WR named Dez, whose career didn’t amount to all that much.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.

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