Wanting Doesn't Equal Having!

Ah, the NFL offseason. That magical time when all is possible and everyone's team will make miraculous choices that put them on the verge of Superbowl glory! With the exception of New Orleans and Indianapolis (and probably Detroit), NFL cities around the nation enter this wondrous candy store of possibility with eyes wide and hands grabbing for their favorite quick-fix jellybeans, candy bars, and licorice whips. That some of the treats may be on shelves to high to reach, might be too expensive, or are just not a good deal doesn't easily penetrate fanbases' initial drooling exuberance. Unfortunately, like a stern mother, reality tells us that even though we want both the bubble gum and the M&Ms we might have to choose one or the other. Bitter disappointment not withstanding. 

I'm going to jump into the role of practical-minded parent to address one of the unrealistic Bronco repairs that I keep seeing on MHR and other sites that talk about our team. While there are a number of tasty treats that have come up with regards to saving Broncos, two of the delicacies we seem to crave most are available in the NFL Draft aisle of the candy store. The Broncos didn't run the ball well, the interior line was a big reason why, and Broncos fans in the know want them some sweets called Mike Iupati and Maurkice Pouncey to patch the problem. The idea that we need to draft both of these guys is one that's been popping up all over the Orange and Blue blogworld. Well children, I'm here to tell you that the chances of our enjoying that yummy feast are pretty dang slim. 

Don't get me wrong, I like both players and would be immensely satisfied if they both ended up with horses on their helmets. Unfortunately, we are poorly positioned to come up with both guys given the way the draft works. In fact, if we stand pat with the picks we have we probably can't land either guy. It's basically a function of the value of the picks we currently have held up next to the rankings of the players. We have pick #10 or #11 in the first round and then don't pick again until pick #45 in the second round. Neither Iupati or Pouncey are worthy our current first round pick. Both would be monumental reaches barring a major shift of opinion during the draft evaluation process. Even if the stock of one (or both) of them shoots up from Senior Bowl to Combine to Pro Days, NFL teams almost never take interior offensive linemen in the top half of the first round. I'm confident that we won't take either one with the #10/11 pick.

On the flip side, both players are the consensus top prospects at their respective positions. We don't select again until thirteen picks into the second round. Is it really likely that either of those guys is going to last that long? I'll tell you right now that Iupati will definitely not be there. He will come off the board somewhere in the 20s. There is an outside chance that Pouncey might last that long, but I doubt it. So if we don't make any moves, we have a very small chance to end up with Pouncey. More likely we get neither. In order to get one or both, we have to do some wheeling and dealing.

To get an idea of what kind of scenarios might work, we have to decide where the players are likely to go. First, though centers are usually more highly valued than guards because of versatility, in this draft it looks like Iupati is the more highly regarded prospect. He's already getting oooohs and aaaahs at the Senior Bowl. Heck, his weigh-in was generating the textual equivalent of man goo across the blogosphere. Big and fit with the longest arms and largest hands of anyone invited to the game. Realistically, if no one reaches very much and he doesn't inexplicably fall very far, I expect he'll go somewhere between picks 18-30. Pouncey is less highly regarded so far, though part of that is less time to get a buzz going since he only recently declared. My initial guess is that he's like to go somwhere between picks 25 and 37/38. And no, I'm not accounting for team needs just yet. So what are our options to get picks in that range?

The most likely scenarios for picking up at least one later first round pick are to trade/allow to be signed Brandon Marshall or trade back from the #10/11 pick. As far as Marshall goes, we would need to find a WR needy team willing to trade for him or pay the tendered compensation to sign him. While he is not the elite receiver people seem to think he is, Marshall is likely worth a second half of the first round pick. Teams that might look at a WR like him are:

#17 Tennessee: If Marshall goes to the Titans I think it might still be too early to look at Iupati and it's definitely too early for Pouncey. This is especially true in that a player like DT Dan Williams has a good chance to be available. He represents a better match of need and value than Iupati. A 3-4 DE like Jared Odrick might also be a better choice. 

#21 Cincinatti: Between the free agent departure of TJ Houshmenzadah, the untimely death of Chris Henry and the on-going drama that is Chad Johnson, this once WR rich team is now in the pass-catching poor house. This pick is about where I'd expect Iupati's value to start matching up with our OG need. Still too early for Pouncey.

#25 Baltimore: Marshall going here would present the most likely scenario for our having to choose between Iupati and Pouncey. There's a good chance both will be here and both are worthy of this selection in terms of value. Of the two Iupati is the more likely to be gone. I'm almost certain that Maurkice will still be here. My biggest yuck with Marshall going to Baltimore is we're likely to have to deal with him in games that mean something at some point.

#27 Dallas: Brandon Marshall is what Dallas wanted to get in Roy Williams. Would they be willing to give up another first rounder for a WR talent with red-flags? Maybe. By this pick the availabilty of Iupati is going to be iffy. My gut tells me he's gone. That or Dallas keeps the pick and takes him :). Pouncey will be here and is worthy. If we ended up with Dallas' pick I'd jump on either of them if they're available. 

#29 NY Jets: Braylon Edwards is a disappointment. Marshall's hands may be a bit on the iffy side, but Edwards should have been a DB. Rex Ryan has shown he'll take chances to improve his team. Could be a match. Iupati is going to be gone by now. Pouncey should be available and I'd be happy to take him.

As far as a trade back scenario goes, the thought process is the same. Can we trade back to a point where either Iupati or Pouncey are available and also not a reach. I haven't done a full breakdown on team needs so I won't go into detailed scenarios. Basically, in order to end up in the 20s from 10/11, a player from one of the premium positions needs to fall and a team needs to be willing to jump to get him. If Sam Bradford is still there when we pick someone very well might take a chance on coming up. Someone may also be willing to come up for a top LT prospect or pass rushing threat. A trade back could get us either Pouncey or Iupati.

The other possibility for getting Pouncey is to jump up in the second round to nab him if he falls out of the first. As we know from the Alphonso Smith trade last year, the asking price for a high second round pick can be pretty stiff. Is Pouncey worth it? That's a debate for another stream of consiousness exercise.

In order to land both Iupati and Pouncey for certain, we'd have to get a late first rounder for Marshall AND trade back from the #10/11 spot. Is it possible? Of course. Is it likely? Hmmmmm. Even if the Broncos do exactly that, the Iuputi/Pouncey bandwagon could be disappointed if another player at a position of need looks like a better value. If Dan Williams is still there at 21 do you still take Iupati? Will he last a few more picks? See what I mean?

The other scenario that would give us a good opportunity to land both, though it depends a lot on what happens to Pouncey's stock, is to get a pick between 20-25 for Marshall or the 10/11 pick and to trade up to the early second. Iupati in the first and Pouncey in the second. Once again, too many variables to say this is super likely.

What my long-winded (as usually) post is getting at is that we don't have a prayer of getting either much less both of these guys without some fanagling. In addition, McXanders will have to determine that such haggling is what they want to do, particularly if they really like someone like Dez Bryant or Rolando McClain. Basically, its just not as simple as saying, "I think we should take Mike Iupati and Maurkice Pouncey in the first two rounds."

Would I like it? Yes. Do I think it's going to happen? Probably not.