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Why we must pay Doom

I am hearing some chatter on this board about trading Elvis Dumervil (Doom).  I think this is a very bad idea and here is why.


Star-divide

The one thing that has hampered the Broncos defense for years is pass rush.  No matter, how good the DBs, they become very vulnerable if there is no pass rush.  This is true of the best of the best cornerbacks.  In my opinion, Shanahan placed too little value on a good pass rusher refusing to pay those that performed well for us (Pryce, Bertrand Berry, and Reggie Hayward) and trying to patch the problem with other teams cast offs (all Brown cast offs as an example).  Sure Pryce was not playing great for us the year before we let him go to the Ravens but he clearly still had something left in the tank (4 sacks for Denver in 2005 and 13 sacks for Ravens in 2006).  Pryce did average 9.6 sacks for the six years before his injury year.  Trevor missed all but 2 games in 2004....I believe that was because of a back injury.  It may have taken him most of 2005 to get back to health.  Bertrand Berry put up 11.5 sacks in 2003 for the Broncos and then we let him go to the Cardinals where he put up 14.5 sacks the next year.  Reggie Hayward put up 10.5 sacks for the Broncos in 2004 and then 8 sacks for the Jaguars in 2005.  The point is that Shanahan refused to pay for pass rushers. I don't want McD to make the same mistakes.  Just look at the years when we didn't have a good pass rusher, the defense was generally poor against the pass.  Doom has his flaws....basically against the rush.  But he is young and learning a new position.  Give me the risk of paying Doom vs the risk of trading for draft picks and hoping we can find another good pass rusher.  Denver hasn't had too many in the last decade; they don't grow on  trees. 

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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One of the only reasons

I would think trading Doom would be considered is that we just signed Haggen to a new deal and we just drafted Ayers. I definitely don’t agree with the idea, I’m just saying it’s not like if we lost him we would be playing some horrible backups.

Eddie Royal will have a breakout season in 2010. Count on it.

by stedtfeld on Jan 27, 2010 3:01 PM MST reply actions  

I think you are right...

And I think its hilarious that every utterance by Adam Scheffter is treated like Moses just descended from the mountain top. The guy is a master at coming up with plausible speculation and repacking it as hard news. He’s even better at somehow getting all his misses to slide off like bacon grease.

So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson

by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 27, 2010 3:13 PM MST reply actions  

The archetypal Schefter moment came the day before the Bailey-Portis trade—he wrote a column speculating on this craaaayyyzeeee deal that might, maybe, possibly could happen…and then, lo, 24 hours later, it does.

He was clearly clued in in advance, but not that he’d ever cop to it. Better to look like Football Nostradamus.

by Remember Keith Kartz! on Jan 27, 2010 3:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Or when he smuggly 'predicted' picks...

…during the draft two years ago and then it came out that the picks are always posted about 2 minutes before they are announced…dude basically got fired by NFL Network for it.

So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson

by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 27, 2010 3:45 PM MST up reply actions  

Did he really do that? That's classic!

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 3:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Yep

So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson

by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 27, 2010 3:51 PM MST up reply actions  

The only way I see us trading Doom is if he wants to be closer to his family in Haiti.

I’ve said this before and I think it still holds true. The Broncos love having Doom on their team, but if Doom tells McDaniels that he wants to go to Miami because it is close to his family, I absolutely believe that he should go. There are things that are bigger than football and this is one of them.

That being said, hopefully we would get good value for him if he did happen to get traded.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Why has nobody made a live-action game of Chutes and Ladders? I'd be first in line.

by Troy Hufford on Jan 27, 2010 3:15 PM MST reply actions  

Rats! You came with a point that I totally agree with... :)

If being closer to Haiti is important, at this time I understand.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 3:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed. Maybe Bowlen will just give Elvis a private jet, instead. That way he can visit his family whenever he wants and he'll still be in denver.

I’ll even throw in 5 bucks if I had to.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Why has nobody made a live-action game of Chutes and Ladders? I'd be first in line.

by Troy Hufford on Jan 27, 2010 3:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Bonaire, first, respeeeeeect to Roadhouse

Good post. I agree and think we should try to keep Dumervil. The trick will be walking the line between value and production. I’ve looked at each of Dumervil’s sacks and have determined that all together they represent a a point value of about 26 points. (will probably post on this soon) for the full year. Is the 26 points of value, plus his 49 tackles, sufficient to warrant the kind of deal he will want?

Part of the answer to this question is his growth potential. Can we assume that he is done growing as a player? Does his value as a rush defender suck away all of the points he generates through sacks. Given his proximity to Kenny Peterson against the run, I am betting the answer is no.

So when Xanders has his total cap number on one side of the equation and the points values of all of the Broncos players on the other side, do the points values roughly equal the % of total salary that his number eats up?

The answer to that question is where I believe they will go.

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Jan 27, 2010 3:20 PM MST reply actions  

I love the analyses you do....

I can’t wait to hear more about the sack point system and see the write up.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 3:31 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't think this can be a simple numbers issue

I’m not sure how you come up with the point value, so you may have this somehow factored in, but what’s the talent drop off? If can no longer rush the QB and have no real alternatives to replace him with, how would you quantify that? Do we just assume that a draft pick will take over and apply a specific amount of pressure? And what about simply pressures and not sacks? Are they figured in?

How about how it affects the locker room and fan base to let Doom go? Is there a number to plug in for lost merchandise or team morale?

Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!

by Alex on Jan 27, 2010 6:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Hope your right

It would be sad to see Doom go but it wouldn’t surprise me if McD were to work out a good trade while his stock is so high. Hope he can stay in Orange and Blue (and on the odd occasion brown) for the rest of his career. Does anyone know if he has lost any family members in the tragedy?

by JAYson G on Jan 27, 2010 3:26 PM MST reply actions  

I wrote about this yesterday..

No doubt he is a great player, but would you be comfortable paying him 10+ million a year if thats what his production determines? Top sack guys ALWAYS get paid lots of money. If he gets into Dwight Freeney salary would everyone be cool with that?

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Jan 27, 2010 3:27 PM MST reply actions  

That is the hitch...

I’m always amazed at the dollars thrown at the top pass rushers and it does tend to scare me. I think we need to rank the positions and decide where the money should go. All I know is that when we cannot generate pressure on the QB with basic packages, we have to try tricks and lots of blitzes that seem to get exposed as the year goes.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 3:33 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree...

And I think thats the point we need to think about here. Is he worth the top money. We saw last year when Tennessee walked away from Haynesworth. We all want to keep him here but there fiscal responsibility may keep that from happening.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Jan 27, 2010 3:38 PM MST reply actions  

Fortunately he's restricted...

But if someone offers $100 million like Haynesworth got? Uh. I’d have to say farewell to Doom as much as it pains me. I think he should be paid very well as far as LB are concerned, but he’s still no the top LB in the league. A big pay day is in order, as long as it doesn’t get too out of hand.

by Kgrone on Jan 27, 2010 5:48 PM MST up reply actions  

I say we franchise Doom or extend him.

We have many holes to fill, let’s not add another one

Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!

by Alex on Jan 27, 2010 6:01 PM MST reply actions  

No need to franchise tag him

He’s restricted so give him one the highest tender. I doubt many teams would consider trading a 1st and 3rd for him. If anyone does we can match the offer and keep him. Then work a new deal during the season. Ideally though they will resign him before all that begins.

by Timimus on Jan 27, 2010 6:30 PM MST up reply actions  

I wouldn't want to take the chance of someone offering

something that we can’t reasonably match. There’s no cap this year, and while I don’t think teams will spend wildly, there’s always one or two idiots in a group.

If we franchise him, that risk is severely lessened. We can also remove it when a new contract is in place, a la Cassell last year. So the price becomes of the franchise tag becomes at least somewhat irrelevant.

Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!

by Alex on Jan 27, 2010 11:04 PM MST up reply actions  

As I mentioned before

At some point in time we need to start taking care of our players. I do not know if Doom would be upset with a 1 year deal but generally most franchised players don’t like it even with the big pay day it represents. We need to lock up some of our players long term.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Jan 28, 2010 6:21 AM MST up reply actions  

pay doom now

that would be smart. moving on to the o-line, d-line, receiver,…

taste my blitzkrieg!
2009-year of the defense

by davecheffy on Jan 27, 2010 7:43 PM MST reply actions  

About the Broncos and money....

I’m sure many on this board could shed some light on this pretty quick, but most teams have a few players that are payed very well. It seems that the Broncos really do not have too many of those right now. We need to pay a few guys big bucks in my opinion to keep them. I think it is not bad for team morale either to let the players know we are willing to pay for performance as opposed to just trade or let go once the price tag gets too steep for a player because of superior performance.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 7:59 PM MST reply actions  

I think thats part of the problem

We need to start taking care of our players and not just waiting till the last minute to do so.. Doom has never said anything but if you franchise him you run the risk of alienating him. Most players hate the franchise tag (Wilfork went off on it yesterday). Low balling him on a 1 year deal sets up the possibility of a splintered locker room. I’m not going to apologize for all of Marshalls past transgressions, but I’d like to think if he had some money in the bank he would be in a much better position..

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Jan 27, 2010 9:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Sorry JohnnyStar,

the post titled “good point” was in reference to your last post. I swear sometimes, I click the right reply button but it still doesn’t put in under the comment I want it to.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 9:47 PM MST up reply actions  

Good point..

It seems that waiting for a player in the last year of the contract (a la Shanahan, I believe), before rewarding for performance often leads to players that become too expensive. We need some forsight as a team and reward players a bit earlier which will come a bit cheaper. Sure we will miss on some by paying early and then not panning out, but it seems a better and cheaper insurance policy then always waiting until the last of the contract and then getting sticker shock.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Jan 27, 2010 9:46 PM MST reply actions  

Say we extend Doom for what market value is for him today..

Say maybe like $6M per year, five years. Then once the new CBA is agreed upon next year, revenue sharing with the players will almost certainly be lowered. That’s the issue at hand, it’s why the owners opted out of the last agreement, and it’s why we’re facing a lockout next year… so I find it very likely that concessions are made and salaries are lowered.

So in essence, there’s a very real chance that by extnding Doom to market value today, could mean he’ll be making 15-20 percent above what market value is lowered to next year and the remainder of the contract. Make this mistake with just two players and the team would stand to lose up to $12M. Do that more than twice and we’re not only burning money, but we could find ourselves in real cap trouble.

Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!

by Alex on Jan 27, 2010 11:22 PM MST reply actions  

Good analogy

And its good to think ahead. However, with all the variables we have no clue how teams will proceed (it seems like they dont either). With a rookie salary cap put in place and tv revenue increasing the salary cap could in theory stay the same but the owners could be taking in more of the pie.

I have read some talk though that for the most part if they play within the general parameters of what they already have in place they should be good. If some rogue team such as the Cowboys and Redskins go off and start trying to sign everyone above cost they will be screwed when everything is said and done.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Jan 28, 2010 6:27 AM MST up reply actions  

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