FanPost

Digging for Orange Gold -- Week 6 Picks and Predictions

 

Last week, I was prescient ... when I warned of the week when you only get 6 picks right. Actually, only 5 of my picks panned out. In theory, I would have had better luck assigning teams a side of a penny and flipping it. But where would be the entertainment in that. Admit it, you enjoy watching people fail in their picks and basking in your own superior judgment. Anyway, on to week 6 picks and thoughts.

Week 5 Picks

If you missed my power rankings this week, you can find them here

 

This week, I'm going to post all the rank comparisons at the bottom. That way they won't smell up my post. Ba dum dum. (Thank you Word spellchecker for trying to mess up my onomatopoeia.) Actually, I get the sense that not everyone wants to see them, although the few lone people who commented last week actually liked the stats most. Who knows? I can do no right.

**As always, the concept of stat comparison is that a team's unit (offense/defense) has a significant advantage if their rank is at least 15 lower than the opponent's unit that faces them (offense A vs. defense B, etc.). These advantages will be in bold. Since all rankings given are stats that are either per game or percentage of attempts, bye weeks should have no effect on the matchups.**

On to last week's results:

 

To break down the format, Pigskin Pickem fav's is the record you would have if you picked the favored team in ESPN's Pigskin Pickem. Busted Bandwagons are favored teams I picked to win that lost. Triumphant Underdogs are non-favored teams I picked to win that did win. If agentj007 posts his results again, I will put them in here.

Week 3 results: 5-9

Pigskin Pickem fav's: 7-7

Busted Bandwagons: Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers

Triumphant Underdogs: Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans

(Note: It was a relatively good week for underdogs, but I just didn't pick the right ones.)

Now, let's get started making some picks!

 

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

 

Watchabillity

B

To me, this looks pretty even despite the Jets having a 3-1 lead in statistical advantages. One of those advantages is their run defense over our run. Anyone who really thought the Broncos would be running effectively, raise your hand. Okay. That makes it more like 2-1, in which case it is close enough for a Homer pick. I am now sipping my can of Duff and reaching for that box of doughnuts. (No, Jamarcus! My doughnuts! Bad Jamarcus Russel! Bad!)

Pick: Denver Broncos

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Watchabillity

C

This looks like a battle between two fair to middling teams. They're not bad. Tennessee has a significant scoring advantage. Note that this is a divisional matchup, so given teams of relatively equal talent, I will go with the home team. Prepare for media on how either Del Rio or Young are in trouble after this game.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins

Watchabillity

C

Not much  to say about this matchup. The Colts are like the farina of football, and the only thing that isn't boring on the Redskins is Donavan McNabb. Gee, the Colts game this week is another snooze bowl. The only thing that could be more boring would be Colts vs. Falcons. If you're watching this, I guess you just have to hope for a cheerleader nip slip or something. Good luck.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts

 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Watchabillity

B

There's nothing really to make you think this would be terribly exciting. Both teams look good on paper. Both teams are on the verge of having their chances of making the playoffs made scant. Call this the Fear Bowl. Which team is going to be more motivated by the prospect of not making it to the playoffs? The NFC East looks more open than the NFC North, so maybe the Vikings should have more motivation. It's hard to say what the Vikings' chances are of catching up to the Bears and Packers. I'm not sure either of these teams will be in the playoffs.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings

 

Oakland Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers

Watchabillity

C

This battle of the bay smells worse than the battle a Chinese ferryman fights against incontinence in the Bay of Hong Kong. You really want to predict a winner for this game? Define "winner." The only thing that makes this not terrible is the level of the playing field. Unfortunately that level is Sewer-level. Both teams field veteran turds at QB. Neither one is likely to be a factor unless they start throwing interceptions. Oakland has a slight statistical advantage, but the game is played in Candlestick Park. I really want to pick the Iocane Powder on this one.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

Watchabillity

B

The lone matchup advantage involves the Texans defense on 3rd downs against the Chiefs, but anyone who thought the Chiefs would be marching the ball up and down the field at will obviously hasn't seem them play this year. They aren't excelling in winning pretty right now. Anyway, this seems like a pretty evenly matched game. My gut kind of tells me to pick the Chiefs, but since the Texans are at home I am going to have to pick against my gut. Like when I eat my stepmother's cooking.

Pick: Houston Texans

 

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Watchabillity

B

This looks like a fairly even match. The Saints look good on paper, and of course they're coming off a Super Bowl win, but the Buccaneers seem like an afterthought after a couple mediocre seasons and are playing rather well. I'm still not ready to give the Buccaneers any credit until they win this game. And unlike some media wags, I will actually give them the credit instead of making next week once again the week the Buccaneers are once again playing for the dubious honor of my esteem. In other news, more cowbell!

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams

Watchabillity

B

My greatest exultation last week, since the Broncos lost, was watching the Chargers blow the game against the Raiders. Oh my, how I cheered and cheered-while one young Chargers fan screamed aloud his loathing for the Raiders, heck, for football in general. I'm not one to take joy in the suffering of toddlers, but I can't help but crack a smile when they're Chargers fans. Much as I would cackle with delight once again to see the Chargers lose again, I don't think it will happen this week. But I can always hope.

Pick: San Diego Chargers

 

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers

Watchabillity

B

The Packers have the clear-cut advantage here in a very significant area: scoring. Of course, you're going to wonder how that's going to change if Aaron Rogers isn't playing this week. Well, you wouldn't think things would change on defense much. Of course, I couldn't honestly tell you who the backup QB is. (Anyone who can name the majority of backup QBs in this league is hard core.) If he sucks bad enough, he could lose the game for the Packers easy. Rogers is Probable, so maybe we won't find out.

Pick: Green Bay Packers

 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Watchabillity

C

I didn't realize how bad the Browns were until I saw the matchup. The Browns aren't bottom of the barrel bad, and you're not crazy to pick them against a mediocre team. As for this game, well, last year the Browns won this matchup. I think both teams are better than they were last year for that game, but the Steelers are Troy Polamalu better. Look for Peyton Hillis to have another poor game in this one. The Steelers are a brick wall against the run. We'll at least get one week without folks airing out their tampons on MHR. Whew.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Watchabillity

B

This is going to be the game where the Eagles really miss Michael Vick. They could barely hang in with the 0-5 49ers last week. The only way I can watch this game is if Kolb wears a visor. Aside from Jimmy Clausen, he's got to be the ugliest QB in the league (Jamarcus Russel isn't playing, remember). I predict a close game, just because the Falcons don't seem to have it in them to blow anyone out right now (nor do I think the Broncos do, honestly), but I don't see the Eagles coming out of this with a win.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons

 

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

Watchabillity

C

There are some impressive things about the Detroit Lions, like their scoring offense, but overall this is pretty cut and dry. Obviously, I'm not saying the Lions can't win. But it doesn't seem likely. How unlikely? It's about as unlikely as Jamarcus Russel seeing a doughnut without eating it. Yeah, sorry Lions fans, but that's about how it is.

Pick: New York Giants

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

Watchabillity

C

Although the Ravens only have a statistical advantage in one category, they are clearly a more complete team than the Patriots. The Patriots are a good team, but they are not so great on defense. The game is played in New England (dur), so it seems pretty even. Uh, how egotistical is it to call your team the "New England" Patriots? What if the Broncos were the American West Broncos? Forget Arizona, forget California, the Broncos represent the west. Er...

Pick: New England Patriots

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears

Watchabillity

C

Predictor of a boring game: all the advantages are on defense. Honestly, I would rather spend 4 hours with my head in the toilet (occupado) than watching this game. I'm feeling a serious case of hatin coming on over the Bears, as that really doesn't feel like a team that deserves to be 4-1. We all know how they won week 1, and last week they won despite their QB throwing 4 picks. Do the Bears seriously have the easiest schedule up to this week? Come on.

Pick: Chicago Bears

 

Game of the Week: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

There was no game rated A this week, so despite this game being rated C I am picking it as the game of the week. These teams are both on a roll.

 

Statistical Matchups

New York Jets

(4-1)

vs.

Denver Broncos

(2-3)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

New York Jets

(off.)

4th

15th

25th

1st

20th

13th

New York Jets

Denver Broncos

(def.)

25th

19th

16th

25th

29th

22th

13th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New York Jets

(def.)

6th

11th

23th

4th

26th

14th

Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos

(off.)

15th

4th

2nd

32th

12th

13th

17th

Statistical Advantage: New York Jets (3-1)

 

Seattle Seahawks

(2-2)

vs.

Chicago Bears

(4-1)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Seattle Seahawks

(off.)

20th

28th

23th

29th

7th

21th

Seattle Seahawks

Chicago Bears

(def.)

5th

6th

17th

3rd

3rd

6th

20th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seattle Seahawks

(def.)

12th

26th

31th

2nd

28th

19th

Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears

(off.)

23th

27th

24th

23th

32th

25th

15th

Statistical Advantage: Chicago Bears (3-0)

 

Baltimore Ravens

(4-1)

vs.

New England Patriots

(4-1)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Baltimore Ravens

(off.)

22th

19th

18th

14th

5th

15th

Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots

(def.)

26th

29th

28th

20th

32th

27th

9th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens

(def.)

4th

3rd

2nd

10th

1st

4th

New England Patriots

New England Patriots

(off.)

1st

11th

15th

13th

1st

8th

17th

Statistical Advantage: Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

 

Detroit Lions

(1-4)

vs.

New York Giants

(3-2)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Detroit Lions

(off.)

6th

17th

6th

27th

13th

13th

Detroit Lions

New York Giants

(def.)

14th

1st

1st

9th

5th

6th

18th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Detroit Lions

(def.)

23th

25th

24th

26th

18th

23th

New York Giants

New York Giants

(off.)

14th

5th

9th

11th

23th

12th

9th

Statistical Advantage: New York Giants (3-0)

 

Atlanta Falcons

(4-1)

vs.

Philadelphia Eagles

(3-2)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Atlanta Falcons

(off.)

10th

7th

16th

2nd

3rd

7th

Atlanta Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles

(def.)

19th

15th

8th

24th

26th

18th

9th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atlanta Falcons

(def.)

2nd

10th

19th

8th

16th

11th

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles

(off.)

7th

8th

13th

10th

21th

11th

14th

Statistical Advantage: Atlanta Falcons (2-0)

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

(3-1)

vs.

Cleveland Browns

(1-4)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Pittsburgh Steelers

(off.)

12th

29th

32th

8th

28th

21th

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns

(def.)

13th

21th

18th

23th

24th

19th

14th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

(def.)

1st

4th

20th

1st

12th

7th

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns

(off.)

30th

25th

22th

20th

16th

22th

20th

 Statistical Advantage: Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)

 

Miami Dolphins

(2-2)

vs.

Green Bay Packers

(3-2)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Miami Dolphins

(off.)

28th

16th

12th

16th

2nd

14th

Miami Dolphins

Green Bay Packers

(def.)

8th

13th

15th

15th

17th

13th

14th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miami Dolphins

(def.)

24th

7th

4th

21th

15th

14th

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers

(off.)

8th

12th

10th

15th

17th

12th

12th

 Statistical Advantage: Green Bay Packers (2-0)

 

San Diego Chargers

(2-3)

vs.

St. Louis Rams

(2-3)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

San Diego Chargers

(off.)

2nd

1st

1st

12th

14th

6th

San Diego Chargers

St. Louis Rams

(def.)

11th

20th

22th

16th

8th

15th

7th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Diego Chargers

(def.)

20th

2nd

3rd

7th

14th

9th

St. Louis Rams

St. Louis Rams

(off.)

27th

20th

17th

21th

15th

20th

17th

 Statistical Advantage: San Diego Chargers (3-0)

 

New Orleans Saints

(3-2)

vs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(3-1)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

New Orleans Saints

(off.)

18th

10th

5th

31th

4th

13th

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(def.)

15th

18th

9th

30th

10th

16th

14th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Orleans Saints

(def.)

18th

9th

7th

22th

21th

15th

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(off.)

21th

21th

19th

18th

9th

17th

16th

Sta-testicle Advantage: Barf (0-0)

 

Kansas City Chiefs

(3-1)

vs.

Houston Texans

(3-2)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Kansas City Chiefs

(off.)

19th

24th

27th

3rd

29th

20th

Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans

(def.)

29th

31th

32th

5th

9th

21th

15th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kansas City Chiefs

(def.)

3rd

16th

25th

6th

7th

11th

Houston Texans

Houston Texans

(off.)

9th

6th

14th

5th

11th

9th

15th

Statistical Advantage: Houston Texans (1-0)

 

Oakland Raiders

(2-3)

vs.

San Francisco 49ers

(0-5)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Oakland Raiders

(off.)

11th

14th

20th

7th

24th

15th

Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ers

(def.)

27th

17th

21th

18th

18th

20th

19th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oakland Raiders

(def.)

28th

24th

10th

31th

23th

23th

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers

(off.)

31th

23th

11th

30th

21th

23th

21th

Statistical Advantage: Oakland Raiders (1-0)

 

Dallas Cowboys

(1-3)

vs.

Minnesota Vikings

(1-3)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Dallas Cowboys

(off.)

16th

2nd

3rd

24th

8th

10th

Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings

(def.)

7th

5th

6th

14th

6th

7th

10th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys

(def.)

21th

8th

12th

12th

2nd

11th

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings

(off.)

29th

18th

21th

9th

19th

19th

13th

Statistical Advantage: Dallas Cowboys (1-0)

 

Indianapolis Colts

(3-2)

vs.

Washington Redskins

(3-2)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Indianapolis Colts

(off.)

3rd

3rd

4th

28th

6th

8th

Indianapolis Colts

Washington Redskins

(def.)

9th

32th

30th

19th

11th

20th

13th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

(def.)

16th

23th

13th

29th

18th

19th

Washington Redskins

Washington Redskins

(off.)

24th

16th

7th

25th

31th

20th

20th

Statistical Advantage: Indianapolis Colts (2-0)

 

Tennessee Titans

(3-2)

vs.

Jacksonville Jaguars

(3-2)



 

 

Rank



Team (off./def.)

Pts.

Tot.

Pass

Rush

3rd %

Avg. rtg.

Overall

Tennessee Titans

(off.)

5th

26th

28th

6th

18th

16th

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars

(def.)

30th

30th

29th

13th

25th

25th

16th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tennessee Titans

(def.)

10th

22th

27th

11th

4th

15th

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars

(off.)

13th

22th

26th

4th

9th

14th

20th

Statistical Advantage: Tennessee Titans (1-0)

 

As usual, please comment and let me know how bad I suck. Or not.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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