Last week, I was prescient ... when I warned of the week when you only get 6 picks right. Actually, only 5 of my picks panned out. In theory, I would have had better luck assigning teams a side of a penny and flipping it. But where would be the entertainment in that. Admit it, you enjoy watching people fail in their picks and basking in your own superior judgment. Anyway, on to week 6 picks and thoughts.

Week 5 Picks

If you missed my power rankings this week, you can find them here

 

This week, I'm going to post all the rank comparisons at the bottom. That way they won't smell up my post. Ba dum dum. (Thank you Word spellchecker for trying to mess up my onomatopoeia.) Actually, I get the sense that not everyone wants to see them, although the few lone people who commented last week actually liked the stats most. Who knows? I can do no right.

**As always, the concept of stat comparison is that a team's unit (offense/defense) has a significant advantage if their rank is at least 15 lower than the opponent's unit that faces them (offense A vs. defense B, etc.). These advantages will be in bold. Since all rankings given are stats that are either per game or percentage of attempts, bye weeks should have no effect on the matchups.**

On to last week's results:

 

To break down the format, Pigskin Pickem fav's is the record you would have if you picked the favored team in ESPN's Pigskin Pickem. Busted Bandwagons are favored teams I picked to win that lost. Triumphant Underdogs are non-favored teams I picked to win that did win. If agentj007 posts his results again, I will put them in here.

Week 3 results: 5-9

Pigskin Pickem fav's: 7-7

Busted Bandwagons: Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers

Triumphant Underdogs: Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans

(Note: It was a relatively good week for underdogs, but I just didn't pick the right ones.)

Now, let's get started making some picks!

 

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

 

Watchabillity

B

To me, this looks pretty even despite the Jets having a 3-1 lead in statistical advantages. One of those advantages is their run defense over our run. Anyone who really thought the Broncos would be running effectively, raise your hand. Okay. That makes it more like 2-1, in which case it is close enough for a Homer pick. I am now sipping my can of Duff and reaching for that box of doughnuts. (No, Jamarcus! My doughnuts! Bad Jamarcus Russel! Bad!)

Pick: Denver Broncos

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Watchabillity

C

This looks like a battle between two fair to middling teams. They're not bad. Tennessee has a significant scoring advantage. Note that this is a divisional matchup, so given teams of relatively equal talent, I will go with the home team. Prepare for media on how either Del Rio or Young are in trouble after this game.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins

Watchabillity

C

Not much  to say about this matchup. The Colts are like the farina of football, and the only thing that isn't boring on the Redskins is Donavan McNabb. Gee, the Colts game this week is another snooze bowl. The only thing that could be more boring would be Colts vs. Falcons. If you're watching this, I guess you just have to hope for a cheerleader nip slip or something. Good luck.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts

 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Watchabillity

B

There's nothing really to make you think this would be terribly exciting. Both teams look good on paper. Both teams are on the verge of having their chances of making the playoffs made scant. Call this the Fear Bowl. Which team is going to be more motivated by the prospect of not making it to the playoffs? The NFC East looks more open than the NFC North, so maybe the Vikings should have more motivation. It's hard to say what the Vikings' chances are of catching up to the Bears and Packers. I'm not sure either of these teams will be in the playoffs.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings

 

Oakland Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers

Watchabillity

C

This battle of the bay smells worse than the battle a Chinese ferryman fights against incontinence in the Bay of Hong Kong. You really want to predict a winner for this game? Define "winner." The only thing that makes this not terrible is the level of the playing field. Unfortunately that level is Sewer-level. Both teams field veteran turds at QB. Neither one is likely to be a factor unless they start throwing interceptions. Oakland has a slight statistical advantage, but the game is played in Candlestick Park. I really want to pick the Iocane Powder on this one.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

Watchabillity

B

The lone matchup advantage involves the Texans defense on 3rd downs against the Chiefs, but anyone who thought the Chiefs would be marching the ball up and down the field at will obviously hasn't seem them play this year. They aren't excelling in winning pretty right now. Anyway, this seems like a pretty evenly matched game. My gut kind of tells me to pick the Chiefs, but since the Texans are at home I am going to have to pick against my gut. Like when I eat my stepmother's cooking.

Pick: Houston Texans

 

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Watchabillity

B

This looks like a fairly even match. The Saints look good on paper, and of course they're coming off a Super Bowl win, but the Buccaneers seem like an afterthought after a couple mediocre seasons and are playing rather well. I'm still not ready to give the Buccaneers any credit until they win this game. And unlike some media wags, I will actually give them the credit instead of making next week once again the week the Buccaneers are once again playing for the dubious honor of my esteem. In other news, more cowbell!

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams

Watchabillity

B

My greatest exultation last week, since the Broncos lost, was watching the Chargers blow the game against the Raiders. Oh my, how I cheered and cheered-while one young Chargers fan screamed aloud his loathing for the Raiders, heck, for football in general. I'm not one to take joy in the suffering of toddlers, but I can't help but crack a smile when they're Chargers fans. Much as I would cackle with delight once again to see the Chargers lose again, I don't think it will happen this week. But I can always hope.

Pick: San Diego Chargers

 

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers

Watchabillity

B

The Packers have the clear-cut advantage here in a very significant area: scoring. Of course, you're going to wonder how that's going to change if Aaron Rogers isn't playing this week. Well, you wouldn't think things would change on defense much. Of course, I couldn't honestly tell you who the backup QB is. (Anyone who can name the majority of backup QBs in this league is hard core.) If he sucks bad enough, he could lose the game for the Packers easy. Rogers is Probable, so maybe we won't find out.

Pick: Green Bay Packers

 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Watchabillity

C

I didn't realize how bad the Browns were until I saw the matchup. The Browns aren't bottom of the barrel bad, and you're not crazy to pick them against a mediocre team. As for this game, well, last year the Browns won this matchup. I think both teams are better than they were last year for that game, but the Steelers are Troy Polamalu better. Look for Peyton Hillis to have another poor game in this one. The Steelers are a brick wall against the run. We'll at least get one week without folks airing out their tampons on MHR. Whew.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Watchabillity

B

This is going to be the game where the Eagles really miss Michael Vick. They could barely hang in with the 0-5 49ers last week. The only way I can watch this game is if Kolb wears a visor. Aside from Jimmy Clausen, he's got to be the ugliest QB in the league (Jamarcus Russel isn't playing, remember). I predict a close game, just because the Falcons don't seem to have it in them to blow anyone out right now (nor do I think the Broncos do, honestly), but I don't see the Eagles coming out of this with a win.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons

 

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

Watchabillity

C

There are some impressive things about the Detroit Lions, like their scoring offense, but overall this is pretty cut and dry. Obviously, I'm not saying the Lions can't win. But it doesn't seem likely. How unlikely? It's about as unlikely as Jamarcus Russel seeing a doughnut without eating it. Yeah, sorry Lions fans, but that's about how it is.

Pick: New York Giants

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

Watchabillity

C

Although the Ravens only have a statistical advantage in one category, they are clearly a more complete team than the Patriots. The Patriots are a good team, but they are not so great on defense. The game is played in New England (dur), so it seems pretty even. Uh, how egotistical is it to call your team the "New England" Patriots? What if the Broncos were the American West Broncos? Forget Arizona, forget California, the Broncos represent the west. Er...

Pick: New England Patriots

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears

Watchabillity

C

Predictor of a boring game: all the advantages are on defense. Honestly, I would rather spend 4 hours with my head in the toilet (occupado) than watching this game. I'm feeling a serious case of hatin coming on over the Bears, as that really doesn't feel like a team that deserves to be 4-1. We all know how they won week 1, and last week they won despite their QB throwing 4 picks. Do the Bears seriously have the easiest schedule up to this week? Come on.

Pick: Chicago Bears

 

Game of the Week: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

There was no game rated A this week, so despite this game being rated C I am picking it as the game of the week. These teams are both on a roll.

 

Statistical Matchups

New York Jets	(4-1)	vs.	Denver Broncos			(2-3)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
New York Jets	(off.)	4th	15th	25th	1st	20th	13th	New York Jets
Denver Broncos	(def.)	25th	19th	16th	25th	29th	22th	13th
New York Jets	(def.)	6th	11th	23th	4th	26th	14th	Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos	(off.)	15th	4th	2nd	32th	12th	13th	17th

Statistical Advantage: New York Jets (3-1)

 

Seattle Seahawks	(2-2)	vs.	Chicago Bears			(4-1)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Seattle Seahawks	(off.)	20th	28th	23th	29th	7th	21th	Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears	(def.)	5th	6th	17th	3rd	3rd	6th	20th
Seattle Seahawks	(def.)	12th	26th	31th	2nd	28th	19th	Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears	(off.)	23th	27th	24th	23th	32th	25th	15th

Statistical Advantage: Chicago Bears (3-0)

 

Baltimore Ravens	(4-1)	vs.	New England Patriots			(4-1)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Baltimore Ravens	(off.)	22th	19th	18th	14th	5th	15th	Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots	(def.)	26th	29th	28th	20th	32th	27th	9th
Baltimore Ravens	(def.)	4th	3rd	2nd	10th	1st	4th	New England Patriots
New England Patriots	(off.)	1st	11th	15th	13th	1st	8th	17th

Statistical Advantage: Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

 

Detroit Lions	(1-4)	vs.	New York Giants			(3-2)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Detroit Lions	(off.)	6th	17th	6th	27th	13th	13th	Detroit Lions
New York Giants	(def.)	14th	1st	1st	9th	5th	6th	18th
Detroit Lions	(def.)	23th	25th	24th	26th	18th	23th	New York Giants
New York Giants	(off.)	14th	5th	9th	11th	23th	12th	9th

Statistical Advantage: New York Giants (3-0)

 

Atlanta Falcons	(4-1)	vs.	Philadelphia Eagles			(3-2)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Atlanta Falcons	(off.)	10th	7th	16th	2nd	3rd	7th	Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles	(def.)	19th	15th	8th	24th	26th	18th	9th
Atlanta Falcons	(def.)	2nd	10th	19th	8th	16th	11th	Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles	(off.)	7th	8th	13th	10th	21th	11th	14th

Statistical Advantage: Atlanta Falcons (2-0)

 

Pittsburgh Steelers	(3-1)	vs.	Cleveland Browns			(1-4)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Pittsburgh Steelers	(off.)	12th	29th	32th	8th	28th	21th	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns	(def.)	13th	21th	18th	23th	24th	19th	14th
Pittsburgh Steelers	(def.)	1st	4th	20th	1st	12th	7th	Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns	(off.)	30th	25th	22th	20th	16th	22th	20th

 Statistical Advantage: Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)

 

Miami Dolphins	(2-2)	vs.	Green Bay Packers			(3-2)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Miami Dolphins	(off.)	28th	16th	12th	16th	2nd	14th	Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers	(def.)	8th	13th	15th	15th	17th	13th	14th
Miami Dolphins	(def.)	24th	7th	4th	21th	15th	14th	Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers	(off.)	8th	12th	10th	15th	17th	12th	12th

 Statistical Advantage: Green Bay Packers (2-0)

 

San Diego Chargers	(2-3)	vs.	St. Louis Rams			(2-3)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
San Diego Chargers	(off.)	2nd	1st	1st	12th	14th	6th	San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams	(def.)	11th	20th	22th	16th	8th	15th	7th
San Diego Chargers	(def.)	20th	2nd	3rd	7th	14th	9th	St. Louis Rams
St. Louis Rams	(off.)	27th	20th	17th	21th	15th	20th	17th

 Statistical Advantage: San Diego Chargers (3-0)

 

New Orleans Saints	(3-2)	vs.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers			(3-1)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
New Orleans Saints	(off.)	18th	10th	5th	31th	4th	13th	New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	(def.)	15th	18th	9th	30th	10th	16th	14th
New Orleans Saints	(def.)	18th	9th	7th	22th	21th	15th	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	(off.)	21th	21th	19th	18th	9th	17th	16th

Sta-testicle Advantage: Barf (0-0)

 

Kansas City Chiefs	(3-1)	vs.	Houston Texans			(3-2)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Kansas City Chiefs	(off.)	19th	24th	27th	3rd	29th	20th	Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans	(def.)	29th	31th	32th	5th	9th	21th	15th
Kansas City Chiefs	(def.)	3rd	16th	25th	6th	7th	11th	Houston Texans
Houston Texans	(off.)	9th	6th	14th	5th	11th	9th	15th

Statistical Advantage: Houston Texans (1-0)

 

Oakland Raiders	(2-3)	vs.	San Francisco 49ers			(0-5)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Oakland Raiders	(off.)	11th	14th	20th	7th	24th	15th	Oakland Raiders
San Francisco 49ers	(def.)	27th	17th	21th	18th	18th	20th	19th
Oakland Raiders	(def.)	28th	24th	10th	31th	23th	23th	San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers	(off.)	31th	23th	11th	30th	21th	23th	21th

Statistical Advantage: Oakland Raiders (1-0)

 

Dallas Cowboys	(1-3)	vs.	Minnesota Vikings			(1-3)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Dallas Cowboys	(off.)	16th	2nd	3rd	24th	8th	10th	Dallas Cowboys
Minnesota Vikings	(def.)	7th	5th	6th	14th	6th	7th	10th
Dallas Cowboys	(def.)	21th	8th	12th	12th	2nd	11th	Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings	(off.)	29th	18th	21th	9th	19th	19th	13th

Statistical Advantage: Dallas Cowboys (1-0)

 

Indianapolis Colts	(3-2)	vs.	Washington Redskins			(3-2)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Indianapolis Colts	(off.)	3rd	3rd	4th	28th	6th	8th	Indianapolis Colts
Washington Redskins	(def.)	9th	32th	30th	19th	11th	20th	13th
Indianapolis Colts	(def.)	16th	23th	13th	29th	18th	19th	Washington Redskins
Washington Redskins	(off.)	24th	16th	7th	25th	31th	20th	20th

Statistical Advantage: Indianapolis Colts (2-0)

 

Tennessee Titans	(3-2)	vs.	Jacksonville Jaguars			(3-2)
		Rank
Team (off./def.)		Pts.	Tot.	Pass	Rush	3rd %	Avg. rtg.	Overall
Tennessee Titans	(off.)	5th	26th	28th	6th	18th	16th	Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars	(def.)	30th	30th	29th	13th	25th	25th	16th
Tennessee Titans	(def.)	10th	22th	27th	11th	4th	15th	Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars	(off.)	13th	22th	26th	4th	9th	14th	20th

Statistical Advantage: Tennessee Titans (1-0)

 

As usual, please comment and let me know how bad I suck. Or not.