Brad's NFL Picks - Week 6 - 2010

Brad's Picks was just 6-8 last week. Here's the good, bad and ugly from the week:

     the good:

Detroit 44, Rams 6. A 105 yard kick off return by the Lions didn't hurt, but it sure wasn't the difference in this game.

Falcons 20, Cleveland 10. It was 13-10 with 4 minutes left when Falcons' DE Kroy Biermann deflected a Jake Delhomme pass, made a diving catch of the ball, jumped up and raced 31 yards for the final score of the game.

Jaguars 36, Buffalo 26. It was 13-3 Bills early in the 2nd quarter.

Undy 19, Chiefs 9. Chiefs had been averaging 22 points per game. Colts had been giving up 22 points per game. I guess the Chiefs were more rusted than rested after their bye.

New York Jets 29.  Vikings 20. Vikings had the ball with a couple minutes to go, down by two. Then Favre threw an INT that was returned for a TD.

Baltimore 31, Broncos 17. Kyle Orton tied a Broncos record by passing for 300 yards or more in four consecutive games. Only one other Bronco QB has ever done that. Guess who? Outside of that, this was a predictable, and predicted, Broncos loss on the east coast to a very good team.

     the rest after the jump:

     the bad:

Washington 16, Packers 13. OT. Packers were leading 13-3 after three quarters.

Buccaneers 24, Cincinnati 21. Carson Palmer's 3rd INT led to a Buc FG with one second left.

Titans 34, Dallas 27. Cowboys committed 12 penalties and Tony Romo was sacked 6 times.

Oakland 35, Chargers 27. This put an end to a 13 game losing streak to the Chargers. Once upon a time, the Raiders beat the Chargers 18 straight times. Raiders blocked two punts in the game, and scored a safety on the first and a TD on the second.

Eagles 27, San Francisco 24.   Niners turned the ball over five times. Eagles turned it over once.

     the ugly:

Giants 34, Houston 10.   Giants Defense! Houston was held to just 24 yards rushing on 15 carries, and 171 yards passing. Texans O has been one of the best in the league.

Bears 23, Carolina 6. Carolina lost despite intercepting Bears' backup QB Todd Collins 4 times.

Arizona 30, Saints 20. Cards undrafted rookie QB Max Hall played cool and got a little lucky to boot - he fumbled twice, but one ended up as a Cards TD as Cards' tackle Levi Brown grabbed it and ran 2 yards for a TD. The other bounced right and the Cards gained ten yards on the play.

AFC 2, NFC 3 last week. On the year, it's AFC 13, NFC 9. Home teams split with the visitors 7-7. On the season it's H 43, V 33. Brad's Picks is 39-37 on the season. George is 1-6 on the season.

Off with a bye last week were Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. Off with a bye this week are Buffalo (0-5), Cincinnati (2-3), Arizona (3-2), and Carolina (0-5).

     this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Seattle (2-2) at Chicago (4-1) - Seahawks off a bye. Bears defense is off a demolition job on the Carolina offense. Bears get Jay Cutler back. Take the Bears.

Miami (2-2) at Green Bay (3-2) - Miami is off a bye. Packers got beat up last week in the loss at Washington. They lost their leading receiver, TE Jermichael Finley, maybe for the season. They also lost their best pass rusher, LB Clay Matthews, DE Ryan Pickett, and special teams ace Derrick Martin. QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion but will likely play this week. But how well? Packers still have O line problems, and aren't running the ball well without Ryan Grant, at least not in the red zone. I'll take the Dolphins.

Kansas City (3-1) at Houston (3-2) - This should be an interesting game. Both teams lost last week, but to good teams. Peyton Manning had a poor game last week, 1 INT and zero TD's. Was it the Chiefs' defense or did Manning just have an off day? Texans offense was pitiful, but I do put that down to the Giants defense, which is playing like the Giants defense of a couple years ago. Anyway, what about this week? I'm taking the Texans. They've been a good team for awhile (longer than the Chiefs), and they are at home.

Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-1) - Steelers are off a bye. Ben Ratberger returns from his well-deserved suspension to discover that his team did pretty good without him. The bye worked pretty good for him, letting him practice for two weeks after his four game suspension. Cleveland will start rookie QB Colt McCoy, since Seneca Wallace suffered a high ankle sprain last week. Wallace was playing okay. You gotta feel sorry for McCoy - the Steeler's defense has been fierce this year.

San Diego (2-3) at St. Louis (2-3) - Rams got demolished last week in Detroit. They are at home this week, but that won't help against the Chargers.

Detroit (1-4) at New York Giants (3-2) - Lions are moving up in the world. Only five games in and they have a win. Which stopped a ten game losing streak. Yes, the win was over the Rams, but it was by 38 points. But their super WR Calvin Johnson injured his shoulder late in that game, and may not play. Giants have been up and down this year, but up the last two games, with a thumping of the Bears and then a thumping of Houston. Take the Giants.

Baltimore (4-1) at New England (3-1) - New England is off a bye, which will mean they are rested. Bill Belichick's teams don't get rusty during an off week. But the Patriots traded Randy Moss to the Vikings a week ago, and then brought in Deion Branch from Seattle. At best, a lateral move, and all about money. And the Patriots are 25th against the pass, and Joe Flacco is playing pretty good, as is Anquan Boldin. And the Patriots are 25th against the run, and here comes Ray Rice. And remember what the Ravens did in New England last January in the playoffs - a 33-14 beatdown. And Flacco was ailing at the time, but is healthy now. I'm taking the Ravens.

Atlanta (4-1) at Philadelphia (3-2) - Tough call here. Vick is out for the Eagles, but Kolb played good in San Francisco last week (21-31-0-253 and a TD) but the Falcons have a much better defense than the Niners. Falcons are 4-0 (Cardinals, New Orleans, Niners, Cleveland) after an opening loss (15-9) in OT at Pittsburgh. Eagles played a Sunday night game last week on the west coast, but the Falcons are on the road for the second week in a row. Real tough call. Let's ask George. George says take the Eagles. But I don't know. The little bird in my ear is saying Falcons.

New Orleans (3-2) at Tampa Bay (3-1) - Division game. Drew Brees threw three INT's last week at Arizona. Bucs QB Josh Freeman threw one at Cincinnati. Freeman is playing real well for a second year guy, but we all know what Brees can do. But these aren't the Saints of last year. And even the old Saints went 2-4 against the Bucs the last three years. The 2010 Saints are really missing Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, so much so that they signed Julius Jones, who used to play at Dallas, then at Seattle, but was released when the Hawks picked up Marshawn Lynch from Buffalo. Confused? Me too, but I'll take the Bucs at home this week.

     the 2:05 MDT games:

New York Jets (4-1) at Denver (2-3) - Kyle Orton completed 23 - of - 38 passes (60.5%) for 314 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a QB rating of 104.5 at Baltimore last week, despite no running game. Some of those yards were in garbage time, but there's no denying the two long TD passes to Brandon Lloyd. Orton and Lloyd have been lights out this season, even without a running game to keep defenses honest. Broncos have a lot of injuries on defense though, and will be without starting CB Andre Goodman, S Brian Dawkins, and LB Robert Ayers, plus situational LB Wesley Woodyard and S Darcel McBath. But the O is basically healthy, and I'll go ahead and take the Broncos. They've had two long road trips in a row and went 1-1, and will enjoy a beautiful football day at Mile High. And this is a long road trip for the Jets, after a close win over the Vikings on MNF.

Oakland (2-3) at San Francisco (0-5) - Aargh. How you gonna call this one? Maybe the Raiders' bus will have a flat tire on the Bay Bridge? For some reason the Niners are the Vegas favorite (by 6.5), but that's just the way the betting is going. Jason Campbell starts at QB for the Raiders, but Bruce Gradkowski (shoulder) is healthy enough to suit up and be the back up. Raiders D is terrible against the run, Niners D is terrible against the pass. I'd love to be at the stadium tomorrow to watch this game. There might be a rain shower or two, but San Francisco is lovely this time of year. I have no idea how to call this game, so I'll figure that if it does rain a bit, it might favor the Forty Niners against the lousy Raiders' run D.

     the 2:15 MDT game:

Dallas (1-3) at Minnesota (1-3) - Dallas last traveled to Minnesota last January and got pasted 34-3. Brett Favre and Randy Moss have had another week to work on timing and anything else that quarterbacks and receivers work on. Vikings lost by 9 last week to the Jets at New York. Cowboys lost by 7 last week to the Titans at Dallas. Neither team is playing as good as the 09 version. So take the Vikings at home.

     the SNF game:

Undianai (3-2) at Washington (3-2) - Redskins have been living on the edge this year. Two OT games, and two others decided in the last seconds. I'm guessing another close one - the Colts are not as dominant as they used to be, especially on the road. I'm guessing another clutch win by the Reds in Washington. If the game was in the Unplace, I'd take the Colts in a heartbeat.

     the MNF game:

Tennessee (3-2) at Jacksonville (3-2) - Division game. Interesting that the AFC South is all knotted up at 3-2. I'm taking the Jags at home. Titans are a dirty team, but as a division opponent, the Jags are used to that. And dirty only gets you so far. Titans RB Chris Johnson, who ran for over 2,000 yards last year, is averaging less than 100 per game so far in 2010.

     Oh, the only other Broncos QB to pass for 300 plus yards in four consecutive games? Besides Kyle Orton? Brian Griese.