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How long does program building take?

Currently I'm in graduate school pursuing a policy degree.  In one of my classes, we have been discussing general policy questions that got me to thinking about the Broncos and Coach McDaniels (though typically I'm zoned out in this 3 hour class thinking about the Broncos anyway).

Today we talked about program implementation and issues associated with it.  We discussed how difficult it can be to institute new programs and complicating factors that can increase implemetation time or foil change efforts.  Anyways, It made me wonder: how long should an NFL coach have to implement his system/philosophy/players before he can be considered ineffective or a failure?

 I firmly believe in what Coach McD is doing and think that we won't have to wait too long before we start seeing consistent results from him, but I wonder how much patience the rest of the Denver fan base and Mr Bowlen will have.

 

So I pose the question:  How long does McD get to take this team to the playoffs?  I hope he gets us there this year, but if he doesn't this question will become quite prominent.

Apologies if I missed prior discussions about this topic. 

Go Broncos!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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This year, hopefully.

In all honesty, though, it’s different for different positions. Many quarterbacks claim that it takes for an offensive scheme to “click”, depending on the complexity. On the other hand, you could have a runningback come in and blow up the statbook in his rookie year. It all depends on the players you have and the complexity of the scheme you’re trying to introduce.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by Troy Hufford on Oct 19, 2010 5:40 PM MDT reply actions  

Good (tough) Question

It seems like its a matter of buy in to me. So the conventional ‘time’ factor can be variable. If you have guys that get into the offseason workouts, and want to be better, it can be a relatively quick turnaround (1 – 2 years). But the age of the team has to have alot to do with it. If you have a veteran team with guys who’ve had a bunch of sucess under other systems, it might be harder to get through.

Where I work, we typically look for young, moldable, employees. This way we can implement the policy and tendancies we like. If you get an older more experienced employee, they have already figured out how to do many things their way. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks style.

If you have a young team (like we do) and some vets who buy in, you’re in luck.

by _Atwater27 on Oct 19, 2010 5:40 PM MDT reply actions  

How long?

I say based on how great the change that was needed – no discipline, total control of Shanahan, rebellious core, how many players cut that no one else wanted (35ish), how different the new scheme is, how well it was presented and received by Bowlen and Bowlen’s history of giving his coaches longer than most NFL teams – 5 years.

by pastordan on Oct 19, 2010 5:41 PM MDT reply actions  

I did two articles on this before I joined here

And then reposted them when I joined. The first talked about growth in the coaching position as time passes. The second talked about dynasties, and how they are formed. In the second one I attached a poll, and 78% of members here said 3-4 years. So around 2012 or 2013 at the latest. That would be if the coach is average or progressing. If each season gets respectively worse, it could be shorter. But one note, teams that build decade long success, Eagles, Pats and Colts this past decade, coaching stability is just one key, you need player stability. Teams that succeed long term have one or two QB’s a decade, they don’t drop a QB over one or two bad games. They keep defensive leaders, don’t ship them away. Stability is key, in coaching and player personnel.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 19, 2010 6:04 PM MDT reply actions   2 recs

Not too sure about shipping defensive leaders

Pats got rid of Richard Seymour, almost all their DB’s, Willie McGinist, etc..
Steelers routinely let their guys walk, see the long line of LB’s that have left the Steelers
Colts have let alot of their defensive players go over the years

To me the thing that I see as a common theme to the dynasty is that most have a top flight hall of fame QB and most have stability in the head coach and assistant coaches, for the most part.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Oct 20, 2010 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions  

It may change from team to team

But for teams that have continued success, leadership is key, Dawkins in Philly or Sanders in Indy are examples of teams that defenses aren’t the same without them. But that’s just what I found when doing the research.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 20, 2010 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

With the amount of time Sanders actually plays,

Maybe it would be better stated that they aren’t the same defense with him, but for the better.

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 9:53 AM MDT up reply actions  

I suppose you could say that

But ask the Colts if they want Sanders on the field and they’ll likely say yes. Just an example I suppose, not worth arguing about.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 20, 2010 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions  

Depends on how awful things were when the new guy took over...

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 19, 2010 6:47 PM MDT reply actions  

11 or 12

okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider

by j-man on Oct 19, 2010 7:25 PM MDT reply actions  

no

lol 2011 or 2012 we will not get bit by inj bug so hard

okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider

by j-man on Oct 20, 2010 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

let me put to this way

in 2011 we shouild be AFC WEST fav if there is a senson let say KC wins the div i think Nexy year we play the AFC east let say BAIT wins the north and INDY wins the south well kc wouild play them insted of cle and buff let say den is 2 they wouild play pitt and HOU/TEN 3 wouild be ciny and TEN/HOU oh we wouild play the NFC North

okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider

by j-man on Oct 19, 2010 7:31 PM MDT reply actions  

It'll take about 9 or 10 games to get us to the playoffs :-)

But seriously, even if he doesn’t get us to the playoffs this year, he will have at least one more year to implement his system.

You can take the man out of Colorado, but you can't take Colorado out of the man.

by manbearpig5000000 on Oct 19, 2010 8:44 PM MDT reply actions  

3 years

Some harp that he has to get to the playoffs this year, but I completely disagree. I think next year is the deciding year for McDaniels. If he doesn’t sniff the playoffs by then, then we are in trouble.

"Bombs dropping down overhead. Underground. It's instilled to want to live." -EV

by sadaraine on Oct 19, 2010 9:18 PM MDT reply actions  

I agree. If his team is worse or the same in year 3 as it was in year 1. Then the dude is pretty clueless and it’s time to cut bait.

The answer is three years.

Josh McDaniel's Broncos are 10-12. He holds a career .454 winning percentage. We better freaking destroy the sorry as ever Raiders.

by McGeorge on Oct 19, 2010 10:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

A timeline would be interesting

Coach Haley in KC recently said they are still building the foundation (in year 2). It would be interesting to get a coach to lay out, what that means, how long it should take, and what the next steps are, and how long the should take. Denver and KC are building the same way, so it should be a similar answer for either one of them.

by cpa913 on Oct 19, 2010 10:59 PM MDT reply actions  

I do think

that Haley and McDaniels are probably the two strongest coaches in the division, so it would make sense, over time, if we were the two strongest teams in the division.

by tunesmith on Oct 20, 2010 12:12 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think it would be interesting

But I also think a coach is going to extend the timeline, whereas an owner would shorten it.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 20, 2010 12:32 AM MDT up reply actions  

I also think it is safe to assume a franchise progression timeline was part of McD's "sales pitch" to Mr Bowlen

during the interview process. I am sure Coach had to give an honest opinion of the franchise as an outsider saw it at the time, the plusses, the weaknesses, what he would do to change it and how long it would take.

As long as Mr Bowlen is satisfied with the progression (yes, I do think there is obvious progression), I think Coach is safe.

I may skank around and visit my other favorite teams' SBNation blogs, but I always come home to St Louis Gametime and my beloved St Louis Blues.

Also...St. Louis Cardinals. Denver Broncos. Univ of Denver Hockey and Lacrosse. Colorado Mammoth and Colorado Outlaws Lacrosse.

by HockeyHippie on Oct 20, 2010 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think he will be as well, unless this season ends under .500

But McD isn’t alone, every coach has a plan, to say McD is a genius for actually having a direction to go in isn’t quite fair. Morris had a plan, or does now that he is HC, when he took over the job in KC. Haley and Spag have plans, even Mangini had a plan, but plans don’t always work out. I like McD, like the mentality he brings, and hope he finds success, but he’s not alone when if comes to team plans and a vision.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 20, 2010 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for all the responses

I guess my follow on question would be, then:

Regardless of schedule, injuries, free agency and draft (ridiculous, I know) where should this team be after 6 games next season? (Another way to think about this might be to assume a decent draft and FA class though nothing blockbuster with a moderate schedule and average injuries when compared with the rest of the league.)

Obviously all these assumptions are nuts, but I think this is the next logical question related to the topic.

by HBobbyT on Oct 19, 2010 11:02 PM MDT reply actions  

I guess I'm trying to eliminate...

Factors outside of the Coach’s control.

 One of the key assumptions that lies in the hiring/firing of head coaches is that they will be able to do something to produce a winning program in spite of the constantly changing nature of the league. If owners didn’t think this, then coaches would be pretty much interchangable.

( I know talent evaluation is a major piece of the puzzle but one could argue that luck may play as important a role as skill in this area. Anyways, that’s an entirely different topic for another discussion.)

by HBobbyT on Oct 19, 2010 11:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'd say Brady was luck...

You don’t draft a guy that late with hopes he turns into a HOF QB. Maning was probably the safest draft pick in the last 20 years (for sure the safest QB pick). Two elite teams, one was awful enough to be fortunate enough to have the top pick that year, and another who got flat out lucky with a late round throw-away pick on a QB.

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

4 year contract

4 year plan.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.

by KaptainKirk on Oct 19, 2010 11:36 PM MDT reply actions  

I agree 4 years....

He may show he deserves an extension before then, but I don’t think you can cut him loose before that. I think we still have one more offseason of bringing in the type of players that McD wants, and then I’ll give him two years to show what he can do with them.

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 9:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

How long has Jeff Fisher been with the Titans? How many rings do they have? What's your point? Do you want him fired? Is there another prospective head coach out there who isn't an analysis?

Why torment ourselves with irrational thinking? We’re REBUILDING a team! I remember the ones that said we weren’t rebuilding and THEY have been awfully quiet around here regarding it…It takes time to put the key positions together and the players to acclaimate with eachother…Be patient

by bfree2bronc on Oct 20, 2010 12:46 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

Who are you talking to?

Cause the author had a positive tone in his post, and I don’t think I read one comment saying “fire McD!”

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 20, 2010 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions  

Ah shucks...You mean we don't want him fired? LOL...

Look, you can’t start over from scratch and expect it to click in a couple of years, it might take 3-4 years with a revamped system…After year 3 then Bowlen needs to sit down and study where this team is headed with what it has…If it doesn’t look like a Championship is possible then maybe it’s time to move on…

by bfree2bronc on Oct 20, 2010 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions  

And that's the way to do it

Unless your team goes 2-14 or something, then it might come sooner. McD shouldn’t have that problem though, but it really is a case by case situation.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 20, 2010 11:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

I like the question about Fisher...

I remember early in the past decade when PIT fans were calling for Cowher’s head. Then he wins one SB (thanks to us knocking the Pats out and then laying a huge egg against them) and now he’s an all-time great and at the top of most teams wishlist (teams who need a coach anyway).

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

Strange things happen in the NFL as we are seeing things this young season we would have never thought would happen...

San Diego losing to the Rams? Wow…Is one (Bradford) player the difference maker nowadays? Or are the Chargers decaying? I think a little of both. There are other surprises too and we aren’t done by a long shot. We’re only a game and a half out of first place with 10 games to go…

by bfree2bronc on Oct 20, 2010 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think AJ has an amazing eye for talent...

But he’s killed the morale in that locker room. As a boss, the only time a ‘my way or the highway’ mentality works is when your employees have no other options. In the NFL these guys can go play for 31 other teams, and they are paid well enough that it doesn’t hurt them that badly to sit out.

I also think they lack a team mentality. They have a bunch of talented players who don’t mesh well. That’s why I love what McD is doing. We have players who buy into the program and buy into the team. If we have another draft like this past one I think we could definitely be on the verge of being an elite powerhouse in the next couple years. I think our system and team is great, we just need a little more talent in the trenches.

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 10:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

This is the NFL, which stands for Not for Long

Look, there is no more “rebuilding” programs, this is a win now league. Here is my guess, if the Chiefs make the playoffs this year and we don’t make the playoffs by next season, McDaniels will be gone next season. The only stat that means anything at the end of the day is wins and losses. He signed guys like Dawkins, Goodman, Jamaal Williams, Bannan, etc… to win now, not to “build a program”, this is an old team, outside of the O-line, it is pretty much vetren dominated. This team needs to win now or McDaniels will be looking for another job.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Oct 20, 2010 9:19 AM MDT reply actions  

You don't sign veterans simply to win now....

I agree our team does not have a rebuilding mentality, but even if we don’t make the playoffs this year I can’t say that Dawking, and Williams are bad pickups. These are the types of guys who groom younger players and show them how it’s done. that is a very important part of a team. That’s why you need young up and comers, and older guys who can show them the ropes.

If we never sniff the playoffs with Dawking he was still McD’s best FA pickup. It’s invaluable to have guys like Doom or Ayers see what it takes to be a leader both vocally and on the field. Our defense has lacked that since Al Wilson left the game.

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions  

I agree.

I think those signings of “veteran” players like BDawk were obviously a bridge until the younger guys are ready. But more importantly, they are teaching McX’s recently-drafted players the “right” way to play the game, which will hopefully be seen as just as important as all the talent these players have: young guys, team first, playing the game the right way here in Denver for the next 3 or 4 years hopefully.

But this isn’t anything you all don’t already know….;)

I may skank around and visit my other favorite teams' SBNation blogs, but I always come home to St Louis Gametime and my beloved St Louis Blues.

Also...St. Louis Cardinals. Denver Broncos. Univ of Denver Hockey and Lacrosse. Colorado Mammoth and Colorado Outlaws Lacrosse.

by HockeyHippie on Oct 20, 2010 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

yeah don't agree with that...

You don’t go out and sign a veteran of Dawkins caliber and tell him “we are rebuilding…come play for me”. I’m sure Dawkins had other offers to look at. Why go to a rebuilding team? No…I don’t buy that one bit. As the course of things went along…it became apparent that the Broncos were in full rebuild mode. Dawkins being the uberpro that he is…has rolled with the punches.

I do have to agree with the idea that if the Chiefs make the playoffs before we do…McD’s seat gets hotter. We are talking about a team that has won 4, 2, and 4 games the last 3 years…and if they are ahead of where the Broncos are now…then something is smelly.

"They are who we thought they were!"

by gcman on Oct 20, 2010 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

also...as an example...

think Champ Bailey (assuming he doesn’t get a new contract from the Broncos) would want to go to a team next year that is rebuilding? Or you think that he would want to go to a team that is ready to win now?

"They are who we thought they were!"

by gcman on Oct 20, 2010 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

My point had nothing to do with why a veteran would sign anywhere...

He had stated that our veteran FA’s weren’t signed to build a program and I disagreed. Obviously we want to win now, but any program that has staying power is always building. The team benefits from these veterans, and even if we don’t win when they are here, their impact will be felt in the future because of what they can offer younger players.

by Kgrone on Oct 20, 2010 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

see my reply below...

"They are who we thought they were!"

by gcman on Oct 20, 2010 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

sorry for the misunderstanding...

The idea, though, that Dawkins was brought in to server as a bridge until the younger guys stepped up isn’t logical in my mind. He doesn’t have much time left in the league and I bet he would prefer to do it with an organization that had a chance to get to and win a superbowl. I don’t see that in Denver in the next 2-3 years and I wonder if he privately regrets his choice to play in Denver.

"They are who we thought they were!"

by gcman on Oct 20, 2010 6:01 PM MDT reply actions  

I think maybe we're arguing semantics.....

Nobody expected us to win last year and yet we still signed Dawkins. I think we expect to win while Dawkins is still with us, however, my point is that even while we have been building the core of our team he has been invaluable. This was not a situation like Minnesota where they paid Favre 20mil and put all their chips in for one year. I was simply arguing the point that the only reason Dawk was brought in was for an immediate shot at a SB.

I also disagree that we are veteran dominated. I think you would be hard pressed to find another team that has more rookies contributing as strongly as ours. Outside of our front 7 I don’t think there’s any position that we don’t have a strong infusion of youth, and fortunately, front 7 is a very strong area in the upcoming draft. I like the youth, and I like where we’re headed.

by Kgrone on Oct 21, 2010 6:10 AM MDT up reply actions  

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