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Running To Win: Broncos Need Ground Game To Beat Titans

Last week's loss was a very hard one for me to swallow. In fact, I went into a fitful rage of whiny negativity that was based purely on emotion. Most of which was entirely unbecoming. As a fan I tend to live and die with each play, which makes my thought process unpredictable and, yes, embarrassing. Of all the people I could have ripped into for that loss, I chose Kyle Orton! Wha? Yes, I know. Crazy. For whatever reason I lose all objectivity and reason during the really tough losses. Then by Wednesday or Thursday the fog begins to clear and I reflect only to question just about everything I thought I believed. It doesn't always happen that way, but this loss brought out the worst knee-jerk I've experienced in quite a while.

During my self analysis, I've concluded that the cause of the massive knee-jerk is because the Denver Broncos should have won their game against the Indianapolis Colts. I focused on Kyle Orton because he was our only hope on offense and he didn't pull the rabbit out of his hat down in the red zone. Was I wrong? Maybe, but would the Broncos have had any chance in that game without Orton? I doubt it. I've decided the best course of action for me is to write my own satirical knee-jerk post each week. Win or lose, I'm going to knee-jerk the heck out of the game and make it fun rather than demoralizing as it was for me in the hours after the last game.

For now, I'm going to lay out for you why I believe my first knee-jerk post will be all about how the Broncos will be going 13-3 baby! Yes, that's right, the Denver Broncos are in the perfect position to go into Nashville and stun the upstart Titans. And they're going to do it without relying solely on the noodled arm of Kyle Orton.

Star-divide



The Offense


On Wednesday's airing of MHR Radio, John Bena stated his belief that if the Denver Broncos throw for 180 yards they will lose against the Titans on Sunday. This is the general assertion opined from just about every credible media source.  Though I agree with John's statement in the context given, I also believe that if the Broncos remain a pass-happy team, Kyle Orton will most certainly end up with around 180 yards passing tomorrow. Why you ask?

Well, using my years of experience attempting to decipher coach-speak from the master, Mike Shanahan, I have come to the realization from listening to Jeff Fisher that the Titans focus will not necessarily be on stopping the passing attack as much as it will be putting the hurt on one Kyle Orton. The key to beating Orton - indeed, any quarterback - is to make them as uncomfortable as possible whenever they drop back to pass.

This makes for a perfect storm of sorts for the Denver Broncos. A crossroads if you will. You might argue that because the Broncos stopped Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis last week that our offensive line will have no problems against the relatively no-name pass rush of the Titans. The thing is, past success does not guarantee future success. This is especially true in the NFL. One week you are the hero, next week the goat. The reason I think the Titans will succeed where the Colts failed is that the Colts rely more on superior talent making plays than on a superior scheme, whereas the Titans employ a superior scheme through excellent coaching and good execution. The Broncos were able to defeat the Colts two superior players, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will succeed in stopping a superior scheme in the Titans. Which is why I believe Kyle Orton will be under serious duress if he drops back to pass 40+ times tomorrow.

So the key for the Broncos is to catch the Titans completely off guard by running the ball. I know this is something the Broncos have yet to do, but I assure you they will not be anemic all season long. Even when the Colts were dead last in rushing a few years ago, their running backs had a couple of big games during the year. I have a feeling the perfect storm is now and the Broncos run game is going to have a huge day. I would like to see Josh McDaniels, during the first couple of possessions, call run plays on each first and second down - regardless of the outcome. I have faith in our defense to stop the Titans offense in this game as I will explain later, but I expect the Titans to come after Orton early and often. Which would be the most perfect time to exploit their game plan by running through it.

One thing is certain, if the Broncos continue to be one dimensional on offense they will lose this game and the next two. For the defenses of their next three opponents are far to elite to get beat by a young, inexperienced one dimensional football team. However, there is one saving grace that might allow the Broncos to win tomorrow in spite of their obvious one dimensional handicap on offense. That saving grace is none other than the improved and improving defensive unit.

The Defense


Suffice to say, I have been a strong critic of this defensive unit since mid pre-season. I didn't like what I saw and I was rightfully worried heading into the season, much to the chagrin of my fellow MHR members. However, I believe I saw a corner turned over the last two weeks. In fact, I skipped writing an article last week because I needed to see the defense play against the Colts.

People like to point out the holes on defense in the passing game, but if you really take it into context the Broncos defense was frustrating Peyton Manning all game long. They were the reason the Broncos were still in the game at 13-10, in spite of several turnovers and not one, but two failures to convert fourth downs in the red zone(not counting the last one which happened at the end of the game).  The defense finally succumbed to the Colts, thanks in large part to the lackluster performance from the offensive unit. Two of Manning's three touchdowns came late in the fourth after the Broncos second failed fourth down conversion attempt in the red zone. Teams feed off each other and the defense had little to feed off of by that time, so I cannot blame them for finally faltering. I think that if the Broncos had scored on that drive, the defense would have responded.

So back to why I am happy with the improvements the defensive unit has made. First, they are playing with a much higher intensity which saps the energy away from your opponent. Second, they are tackling much better than at the start of the season and third, the run defense is making strides. Granted, tomorrow will be their biggest test of the year and will be an excellent measuring stick for the future. Holding Chris Johnson to less than 125 yards and less than one touchdown would be a victory for the Broncos defense. 

The key for the Broncos is as obvious as the rising sun. Stop the Titans rushing attack. I think the best thing to do for this game is to bring the old 5-2 defense out of mothballs. Against a mediocre quarterback like Vince Young, the Broncos would do well stacking the line with big men and leaving their cornerbacks on islands to cover equally mediocre wide receivers. As many of you have read, Steve Nichols wrote a solid article last year on the 5-2 defense and how Denver employed it early during the 2009 season. In short, here is what the 5-2 looks like on the big white board:

5-2base_medium

The idea is to utilize Robert Ayers and Jason Hunter on the edges to contain Chris Johnson and corral him back into the middle where the beef is. I don't see much use for Jarvis Moss in this game other than in third and long situations. Also, task someone in the backfield with spying Chris Johnson and Vince Young as well. Containment is the most important goal for the defense in this game.

I think they are stacked up perfectly to just that. The Titans don't respect their record against the run and their game plan will likely be running the ball - a lot. This is Josh McDaniels' chance to out coach Jeff Fisher and beat him by playing to the weaknesses of the other team. In the Titans case, their weakness on offense is a lack of a passing game and on defense is their desire to pressure Kyle Orton. That is how I see it anyway.

Even if the Broncos beat the Titans by throwing the ball every down, they cannot rely on it indefinitely and certainly not against the likes of the Ravens or Jets. They'll chew Orton up and spit him out after the first quarter. Now is the time to regain the two dimensional offense. Give the Ravens something to chew on for next week.

My prediction for this week, the Broncos stun the Titans 27-16.

Comment 48 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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Game day running has been too inconsistent for McD to game plan with. I do think that LM having contact last week and a week to watch film and work on his mistakes will make him more effective this week. Ryan Harris returns, but this will be his first contact in a month. All said, I do expect the Broncos to run more and more effectively this week than in weeks past. The bread and butter of this offense is the high percentage passing game. The running game will be in support of that passing game. We also have big play potential in the passing game, we do not in the running game. My prediction – Orton over 300 yards and 3 TDs – each from about the 30. We close in on 100 yards rushing but miss the mark.

On Defense ….. The feet of Vince Young scares me more than Johnson. You know that CJ is going to come at you hard, he is fast, and he can make you miss. We have such outstanding talent in the secondary that we can put 8 in the box and be OK. Our front 7 without help have grown to the point I believe they can limit CJ to under 100 yards.

Broncos 24 Tenn 14

by Flunkie on Oct 2, 2010 4:04 PM MDT reply actions  

Close to 100 yards...

Would be a stellar day for us. And we are probably going to have to run the ball at least that well to win this game.

VY is a rushing threat but he’s not Mike Vick. They’re going to pound the rock with Johnson and pound it some more, and then some more, wash rinse and repeat. That’s what they do.

If we can contain Johnson and make Young beat us, we stand a far better chance than if we let CJ2K have a field day.

Madden be trippin' on my speed.

by TheMastermind on Oct 2, 2010 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

You're probably asking too much

Orton has thrown 3 TDs in a game exactly twice in his career, and never had more than that.

by improv88 on Oct 2, 2010 8:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

By the same token

Prior to the last game of 2009, Orton had never thrown for more than 334 yards in a single game. In fact, he had only topped 300 yards three twice in his career. In the last four games (3 in 2010 and 1 in 2009) Orton has topped 300 yards 3 times and 400 yards twice.

So, I find it somewhat premature to suggest that he is incapable of reaching a 3 TD game.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Oct 2, 2010 10:07 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree....but Improv is not an Orton fan. History gives us nothing but trends, but is not an indicator of future success...especially in a moving target game like NFL.

You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!

"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"

Harv Neptune.

by boydy2669 on Oct 3, 2010 6:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

He also never had Thomas, Royal, Gafney ....

Three TDs is more than possible with our receiving core, and will likely happen a few times this year. These guys each give it up for each other, throwing blocks and hustling down field. Orton has shown an increasing ability to read the defense and deliver the ball on target and in stride. Harris returning will buy him just that little extra time he needs to find the right target.

by Flunkie on Oct 3, 2010 8:20 AM MDT up reply actions  

Great article Tim!

I feel your frustrations. I feel sorry for that poor pillow that I beat into oblivion after the Colts game…

Hopefully this is the game that Denver gets the running game going.

I always predict the Broncos to win—and just like Han Solo, I never listen to the odds!

"I used to fight the pain, but recently this became clear to me: pain is not my enemy; it is my call to greatness."--Henry Rollins

"Victory belongs to the most persevering." --Napoleon.

by Dustin Maul on Oct 2, 2010 4:06 PM MDT reply actions  

We won't stop CJ...

but I hope we can slow him down.

My take is that CJ will get his yards (approach 200), but will only have 2 TDs. The titans can’t beat us in the air (they’ll really struggle when the field is shortened in the redzone) and will settle for a few fgs.

Orton has to give us 3 TDs and bring us in range for a pair of field goals. I don’t see our running game doing very much.

Broncos 27 Titans 20

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by Troy Hufford on Oct 2, 2010 4:11 PM MDT reply actions  

CJ gets 200 yards, we're toast

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 2, 2010 5:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

ditto that

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Oct 2, 2010 7:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

Reasonable argument.

I am sure the Broncos are looking at the game in a similar light. I have a hard time imagining us limiting Johnson to under 100 yards, but if we can keep him under 130 and counter with some good run offense of our own, we can force Young into some turnovers and let our prolific passing game do what it does when we need it to.

Fingers crossed. I have a feeling things will start to come together for us this week.

Madden be trippin' on my speed.

by TheMastermind on Oct 2, 2010 4:13 PM MDT reply actions  

We also need to SCORE.

Early and often. If we can get an early lead on them and force them to play our game then we have a great chance of coming out of there with a win.

Madden be trippin' on my speed.

by TheMastermind on Oct 2, 2010 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don't buy it

I don’t think the Tennesee pass rush has seen a pass protecting O-line or a QB like ours yet this season, so I’ll have to see it to believe it. That being said, I think we still need to be more balanced, and actually show that we can pass to set up the run. I think the real key to this game is if our OLB’s can contain CJ to between the tackles.

You can take the man out of Colorado, but you can't take Colorado out of the man.

by manbearpig5000000 on Oct 2, 2010 4:15 PM MDT reply actions  

Rest assured, the Titans are no Ravens...but they are a good test before next week

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 2, 2010 5:55 PM MDT up reply actions  

Agreed

You can take the man out of Colorado, but you can't take Colorado out of the man.

by manbearpig5000000 on Oct 2, 2010 6:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

To be honest, I rank them the same....I am disappointed in the Ravens this year. I dont think they as ELITE as everyone says they are.

You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!

"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"

Harv Neptune.

by boydy2669 on Oct 3, 2010 6:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

Nice post.

I agree with you. A knee jerk reaction is often grounded in truth. If I had to bet, I would say our offense tomorrow will be using tons of screen passes. I would use Maroney tomorrow for my fantasy football team if I had him.

by swg777 on Oct 2, 2010 4:27 PM MDT reply actions  

I do so as well.

If the Titans are planning on coming at Orton, a screen pass just may be what the Doctor ordered!!

"I used to fight the pain, but recently this became clear to me: pain is not my enemy; it is my call to greatness."--Henry Rollins

"Victory belongs to the most persevering." --Napoleon.

by Dustin Maul on Oct 2, 2010 4:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good stuff Tim

Admirable that you recognize your initial reactions as knee-jerk.

I think you are right about the 5-2. I’d be surprised if we don’t see a lot of that. Also, would love to see McD dictate to the Titans that we are going to run the ball.

I too dabbled in pacifism once...

by waltersobchakbronco on Oct 2, 2010 4:48 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

We squandered a golden opportunity last week and who is the blame?

Most blame the running game, some Kyle Orton for not taking the bull by the horns, but when a COACH leaves at least 15 points on the field in a contest like this it is obvious who the blame must fall on. McDaniels’ mistrust of the defense cost us the game and he stated much the same when he said taking a field goal wouldn’t matter against the likes of a Peyton Manning. Hind sight is 50-50 coach when those 15 points or 5 field goals would have given us a total of 28 points counting the 13 we already had. They made a total of 27…Hmm…Coach Caldwell didn’t hesitate to take a couple of FGs early in the contest because he knew it might not be easy for the Colts’ offense. Caldwell out coached McD and that doesn’t set to well with me, our coach failing against theirs. The old addage is to take the points when the time arises and leaving 15 possible points on the field is ridiculous. So, what do we do with our dismal short yardage failures?

I have an idea of how we can be successful against Tennessee and I got it from jeremy’s post, Red Zone +25. When or if our offense approaches the RZ they need to take shots to the end zone more even if they don’t work. if they do we get 6, if they don’t try for 3. We have struggled with the short yardage game and I don’t see any cure any time soon. Our illustrious head coach has to trust our defense to make the plays to keep us in the game, playing catch up makes it much tougher especially in the 4th quarter when anything can happen and it’s usually bad…

Great post Tim and much appreciated my friend…

by bfree2bronc on Oct 2, 2010 5:05 PM MDT reply actions   2 recs

+1

"I used to fight the pain, but recently this became clear to me: pain is not my enemy; it is my call to greatness."--Henry Rollins

"Victory belongs to the most persevering." --Napoleon.

by Dustin Maul on Oct 2, 2010 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

There Weren't 15 Points Left On The Board...

Aren’t you double counting here?

We had 5 red zone trips. 2 FGs for 6 points. The 4th and 1 stop. The 4th and 3 stop. The 4th down when the Broncos were down 2 TDs wiith about 3 minutes left.

So, really, there’s SIX points left on the board, not 15. Even in your scenario, where McD takes all points he can, it’s 27-19 for the last one and I don’t think any fan would suggest kicking a FG down 8 with 3 minutes to go.

by MD413 on Oct 2, 2010 5:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

Everyone keeps skipping to the end when talking about these scores however . ...

If we kick the one in the first half then when Orton throws that bomb to Lloyd its a TIED GAME 13-13 which changes everything we do and they do from that point on.

instead

After that bomb we get a 3 and out from the defense and a great punt return nullified by a penalty and McD then calls 3 straight short passes from our own 30 . We punt it back and they score and its now 20-10 .

Thats why you take the points because AT HOME maybe ….just maybe your team actually could generate a couple of plays on offense and defense to get back in it .

instead Joshs decisions kept us playing catch up all night basically ruining all the big plays we had thru the air by coming away with nothing at all.

by Hoopforia on Oct 2, 2010 5:55 PM MDT up reply actions  

Wasn't it five trips to the RedZone with zero points?

Sure we got 2 FGs and a TD I realize that, but my take has been off of others offerings is, we made 5 RZ trips and NO points…You can’t walk away from the RZ without points, I don’t care what the situation is and it clearly showed McD didn’t trust the defense to keep us in the game. Somebody correct me if I’m wrong but all of the writings I’ve read and believe said we had 5 without pts…Zero, zilch, nada, nothing…That makes the difference in the game. Our old nemesis John Madden always stressed you never leave the endzone without something and he has a Championship to prove his worth…

by bfree2bronc on Oct 2, 2010 8:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

the 0-5 in the redzone

was a TD conversion stat. There were still two FGs in there.

Great perils have this beauty, that they bring to light the fraternity of strangers.

by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 2, 2010 8:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

thanks bud

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 2, 2010 5:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

+100!

You hit the nail on the head! We have been completely outcoached in the red zone this year on BOTH sides of the ball. It’s the difference between 3-0 and 1-2. McDaniels is the bottomline, and he’s not cutting it in the red zone. Imo, it’s both play design and playcalling. The red zone issues surfaced in the 1st quarter of the 1st preseason game in 2009.

by rocko1 on Oct 2, 2010 7:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

At this point I'm really concerned that he isn't capable of coming up with the right plays.

I see a lot of great things McD has done for the team, but if he struggles in that area then maybe we need a playcaller who can make plays. I’ve seen teams with a lot less talented players than we have have success down there. It’s a big red flag against our coaches abilities in the pinch and so far he hasn’t come through.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 2, 2010 8:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

I love what McD has done, and for the most part I like his play calling; but 4 straight run plays from the 4 yard line!! Come on now McD! You can call other plays besides a halfback dive!

"I used to fight the pain, but recently this became clear to me: pain is not my enemy; it is my call to greatness."--Henry Rollins

"Victory belongs to the most persevering." --Napoleon.

by Dustin Maul on Oct 2, 2010 10:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

Big McD fan but he screwed the pooch...and that fae that orton threw to DT needs to be shelved....very low % play.....play action etc has much better odds.

You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!

"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"

Harv Neptune.

by boydy2669 on Oct 3, 2010 6:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

Turnovers, Red zone offense, and special teams are what matter tommorow

we’re going to get a lot of passing yards. they’re probably going to get a lot of rushing yards. so it’s gonna be up to who can do better in the red zone and who makes less dumb mistakes.

by black_knight101 on Oct 2, 2010 5:26 PM MDT reply actions  

We Don't

have to be dominant in the ground game, we just have to run enough to give KO and our explosive wideouts some support. Also, Chris Johnson might get his 100, but there won’t be any big runs (I hope). I don’t believe in predicting final scores, but if we execute, we could win this one going away. GO BRONCOS!!!

Brad James

by the new Bradfather on Oct 2, 2010 8:53 PM MDT reply actions  

I don't predict scores either....

Because whenever I do seem to predict scores, it blows up in my face like a science project gone wrong!

"I used to fight the pain, but recently this became clear to me: pain is not my enemy; it is my call to greatness."--Henry Rollins

"Victory belongs to the most persevering." --Napoleon.

by Dustin Maul on Oct 2, 2010 10:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

Dink and Dunk

I see the Titans game planning to stop our deep ball threat – lot’s of dime packages. I see them not paying much attention to our anemic running, and successful at limiting that. But I see our strategy for lots of flats/short routes in front of their deep concern, giving us a great TOP edge. I see a close win for us. I think I’ll go see some more kool-aid. GO BRONCOS!!!!!

Give a man a fish, and he'll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat for a lifetime.
"Losing stinks" - Josh McDaniels

by azbroncomaniac on Oct 2, 2010 9:20 PM MDT reply actions  

Best post ever.

IMHO
Tim, you key in laserly onto each of my subconscious inclinations; “…faith on the running game” “5:2” “…not entirely on Orton…” while I lack the chutzpah to reckon 13:3 (until we ain’t ?) it was a pure delight to read a knee jerking so synchronously. Cheers.

"Aggression, discipline, accountability, effort" Brian Dawkins 9/29/2009
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing." Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace

by PositivIntegral on Oct 3, 2010 1:39 AM MDT via mobile reply actions  

Thanks man! lol

I typically kneejerk the other way, but what fun would it be just to write negative kneejerk posts? :)

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 3, 2010 9:14 AM MDT up reply actions  

Run early and often...but

if it ain’t working in the 1st quarter, AIR IT OUT BABY!!! We can’t force ourselves to be something we’re not. Not to say we won’t get there with the running game. We are handcuffed a bit without KM in there. IMHO, he is far and away a better RB than Maroney.

They have a rookie starting in the secondary….much like Cox did for us last week. That matchup should be exploited all day long! I really hope that DT gets at least equal opportunities as Gaff and Lloyd. He could be the X factor in this game.

And for the love of Pete (who is Pete anyway) don’t be afraid to take shots at the endzone from 20+ out.

I’m right there with you Brian. I was devastated last week because we SHOULD have won that game. I knew it would be hard to beat them, but we did everything we needed to, except score in the RZ.

I also have knee-jerk reactions in games, and I’ve started jotting down notes when I see good/bad plays. I pretty much gave up posting in the game day threads because that’s basically all that is….a knee-jerk thread. No offense to those who comment there, but my typing skills suck to the point of not being able to enjoy the game and comment at the same time.

Once a day or 2 has passed, I re-watch the game on Sunday ticket shortcuts, and pick it apart. Usually, at least 3-4 of my notes proves to be wrong due to someone else missing an assignment etc.. The next day analysis is always better than the same day analysis. It takes emotion out of the equation!

Officially on record with a 10-6 prediction for 2010! (8/21/10)

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

by Broncotodd on Oct 3, 2010 7:28 AM MDT reply actions  

I’m right there with you Brian

oops…I meant Tim ;)

Officially on record with a 10-6 prediction for 2010! (8/21/10)

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

by Broncotodd on Oct 3, 2010 7:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

I like to say For Pete's sake!

Why are we forsaking Pete?

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 3, 2010 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions  

And repeat!

Well done Tim.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.

by KaptainKirk on Oct 3, 2010 10:51 AM MDT reply actions  

Broncos need running game to beat the Titans - NOT!

Wouldn’t have expected it either.

"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"

by littletinybroncos on Oct 4, 2010 8:14 AM MDT reply actions  

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