Brad's NFL Picks - Week 7 - 2010

     Brad's Picks was 7-7 last week, and here's the good, bad and ugly from that:

     (As always, the home team goes by it's City, State, or Region, while the visiting team goes by it's team name)

     the good:

Dolphins 23, Green Bay 20. OT. Second straight OT loss for the Packers.

Houston 35, Chiefs 31. Houston needed a TD run by Arian Foster and an 11 yard TD catch by Andre Johnson after being down 21-31 with 7 minutes left in the game. But the win came at the cost of losing their very good LB DeMarcus Ware for the season with an achilles tear.

Pittsburgh 28, Browns 10. Ben Rapelsberger passed for 257 yards, about 120 more than his various standins passed for in the Steelers first four games.

New York Giants 28, Lions 20. Lions played tough, even though backup QB Shaun Hill left the game with a broken arm late in the 1st half. His backup, Drew Stanton, did pretty good against the Giants, going 19-34-1-222 and an 87 yard TD pass. Lions get a bye next week, and expect to have Matthew Stafford back by then.

San Francisco 17, Raiders 9. Raiders managed 69 net yards passing.

Minnesota 24, Cowboys 21. Tony Romo threw two INT's, Brett Favre threw none, and Percy Harvin ran a kick off 95 yards for a TD.

Colts 27, Washington 24. Joseph Addai gave the Colts a bit of a running game for a change, getting 128 on 17 and a 13 yard TD run.

     the rest after the jump:

     the bad:

Jets 24, Denver 20. Lots of penalties and other mistakes by both teams. Good game though.

Seahawks 23, Chicago 20. Hawks used their bye week to good advantage.

St. Louis 20, Chargers 17. Rams sacked Philip Rivers 7 times.

New England 23, Ravens 20. OT. This game almost ended in a tie. The winning FG came with 13 minutes elapsed in OT.

     the ugly:

Philadelphia 31, Falcons 17. George was right on this one. Eagles really outplayed the Falcons.

Saints 31, Tampa Bay 6. Saints are rounding into 09 form, but it didn't help the Bucs to turn it over twice.

Titans 30, Jacksonville 3. Both teams lost their starting QB's early. But the Titans got better play out of their QB's, as Vince Young threw a TD pass on the first series, and then Kerry Collins went 11-16-110 and a TD with no INT's. Trent Edwards replaced David Garrard and threw two INT's.

     AFC and NFC each won two games last week. On the season, it's AFC 15, NFC 11. George is 2-6 on the season. Home teams won 8, Visitors won 6. On the season it's H 51, V 39. Brad's Picks is 46-44 on the season.

     Off last week with a bye were Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Carolina. Off this week are Undee (4-2); Jets (5-1); Detroit (1-5); and Houston (4-2).

     this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Buffalo (0-5) at Baltimore (4-2) - Take Baltimore. 'Nuff said. Even though Buffalo had an extra week to get ready. And even though Baltimore had a tough OT loss at New England last week. Bills are terrible defending the run, and here comes Ray Rice.

Washington (3-3) at Chicago (4-2) - Ryan Torain ran for 100 yards on 20 carries and 2 TD's vs the Colts last week. Good to see. Torain had two injury filled seasons with Denver, and is now back with Mike Shanahan. Also back with Shanahan this week (sort of) is Bears' QB Jay Cutler, drafted by Denver in the first round in 06. Redskins defense is the worst in the league, but Chicago's O line is pretty bad, and Jay Cutler is taking a beating. Torain is averaging 4.2 per carry, but the Bears do have a good defense. Meanwhile, Bears' RB Matt Forte is averaging a healthy 3.9, and the Reds have no defense. I'll take the Bears at home.

Cincinnati (2-3) at Atlanta (4-2) - Bengals are off a bye, while Atlanta is off a beating in Philadelphia. Matt Ryan is 15-1 at the Georgia Dome, which is in Atlanta.

Philadelphia (4-2) at Tennessee (4-2) - Eagles played great at home against the Falcons last week, while the Titans are off an MNF beatdown of the Jags at Jagville. Vince Young may be available to play, but will almost certtainly back up Kerry Collins. TE Bo Scaife is quite iffy. Eagles will be without DeSean Jackson, who suffered a mean concussion last week. Micheal Vick is iffy for the Eagles, but Kevin Kolb is the man anyway (QB rating of 119 in the last two games, 9.6 yards per attempt). Jeff Fisher's Titans are 3-0 vs. Andy Reid's Eagles, but I'm taking the Eagles. If only because the Titans played a Monday night game on the road.

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (3-2) - This should be a great game. Miami is unbeaten on the road (Buffalo, Minnesota, and Green Bay), but winless at home (Jets, Pats). These two teams met in Week 17 last year, when both were still in the playoff hunt. Steelers won 30-24, but young Chad Henne was 16 of 20 for 140 yards, with one TD and one INT. Henne's a little more experienced this year, and has Brandon Marshall as a big go-to receiver. That's a good thing, because the Steelers are very good against the run. Ben the R is back for his second game. He did OK against the Browns last week, but the Dolphins have a much better defense, and that was at home with a friendly crowd. Let's see how the Miami crowd greets a jerk who gets a young girl drunk, then leads her down the hall to a lavatory, and pushes himself on her. Dolphins play a good game, with just 21 penalties so far - the fewest in the league. Tough call, but I'll take Miami.

St. Louis (3-3) at Tampa Bay (3-2) - Bucs lost at home by 25 points last week, but that was to the Saints. Rams are looking pretty good this year, at least compared to last year, when they only had one win all year. But the Bucs have already matched their win total from last year, after just five games. Both teams are kind of mediocre in terms of yards for/against. I guess I'll take the home team over the dome team - weather looks to be sunny and around 90 at game time.

Cleveland (1-5) at New Orleans (4-2) - With Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush out last week, the Saints turned to RB Chris Ivory, a rookie free agent from Tiffin University which happens to be in Tiffin, Ohio. Ivory responded with 158 yards on 15 carries last week at Tampa. Take a nanosecond to consider this before you take the Saints.

Jacksonville (3-3) at Kansas City (3-2) - Jags are off an MNF beatdown by the Titans, but that's the least of their worries. QB David Garrard is out. His backup, Trent Edwards, was abysmal last week against the Titans, and hurt his hand in the process. So, the probable starter is Todd Bouman. Never heard of him? Neither had I, so I figured he was a rookie or something, but no. Dude is 38 years old and has been kicking around the league since 1997, but has almost no game time experience. Probably a reason for that. Chiefs played real tough at Houston last week.

San Francisco (1-5) at Carolina (0-5) - Carolina is off a bye. Niners managed an 8 point win last week, finally, against a pretty inept Raiders team. Raiders QB Jason Campbell managed a QB rating of 10.7 (he was 8-21-2-83). Carolina is probably not much, if any, better than the Niners, but they've had a week off. Matt Moore will start, instead of rookie Jimmy Clausen, who hasn't been very good, and the Panthers are at home and it's a long trip from San Francisco.

     the 2:05 MDT game:

Arizona (3-2) at Seattle (3-2) - Division game. Arizona is off their bye, Seattle is off a huge win in Chicago, which came after their bye week. AZ is not the team they were a couple years ago. They're 31st on offense, 28th on defense. Seattle is pretty good at home, and they are 2nd vs. the run, and will be facing a rookie QB in Max Hall. Forecast is for rain.

     the 2:15 MDT games:

Oakland (2-4) at Denver (2-4) - Division game. Raiders have won the last two at Mile High. But Denver wins this one. Spread is at 7 or 8, depending on who you read, and that may be about right.

New England (4-1) at San Diego (2-4) - Pats off a tough OT win against the Ravens. Chargers are likely to be without WR Malcom Floyd and WR Legeduu Naanee and PK Nate Kaeding on Sunday. And TE Antonio Gates is hurting (toe). But the Chargers do lead the league in offense and defense - in yards, but not in points. But that's in the past. Patriots have little or no D (30th) but they had an impressive win at Miami three weeks ago (41-14) with all kinds of points off turnovers and such. Then a week off, and then the win over the Ravens. In OT, after 13 minutes. Now they have to go from Massachusetts to Southern California. I'll take the Patriots here - they're playing tough football, the Chargers aren't and the Chargers have too many injuries.

     the SNF game:

Minnesota (2-3) at Green Bay (3-3) - Division game. Packers last four games have been decided by 3 points or less, against teams with a combined record of 11-12. Packers are really beat up. Favre's Vikings were 2-0 against the Packers last year, and I'm thinking it will be 3-0 by Monday.

     the MNF game:

New York Giants (4-2) at Dallas (1-4) - Division game. Can the Giants make it 4 in a row? Yes, they can. Giants were 2-0 last year against the Boys, and the Giants are better this year while the Boys are worse, for some unknown reason. But watch your money here - Giants only beat the Lions by 8 last week, in New York, and the Cowboys could break out of their funk this week.