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Brad's NFL Picks - Week 4 - 2010

     Brad's Picks was a dismal 7-9 last week. Here's the g,b &u from that:

     the good:

New England 38, Bills 30. Buffalo is 0-14 against the Patriots lately. But notice how many points the Patriots gave up.

Baltimore 24, Browns 17. Browns Peyton Hillis ran for 144 yards on 22 carries against the once-vaunted Ravens D.

Titans 29, New York Giants 10. Giants turned the ball over three times. Titans none.

Bengals 20, Carolina 7. Sloppy game. Carson Palmer threw two INT's but Panthers rookie QB Jimmie Clausen threw one and the Panthers lost three fumbles to the Bengals.

Minnesota 24, Lions 10. Lions have lost 22 in a row on the road.

St. Louis 30. Redskins 16. St. Louis ended a 14 game home losing streak.

Arizona 24, Raiders 23. Sebastian Janikowski missed three field goals for the Raiders in the game. Raiders also committed 11 penalties (Arizona committed 7).

      the rest after the jump:

     the bad:

Falcons 27, New Orleans 24. OT. Saints missed a 29 yard FG in OT. Minutes later the Falcons made a 46 yard FG. Pretty close game.

Seattle 27, Chargers 20. Leon Washington averaged 100 yards on his two kickoff returns for TD's in the second half. Pretty much the difference for the Seahawks, who didn't do much else right.

Jets 31, Miami 23. A close game in every way. Braylon Edwards catching a short pass and then going 67 yards for a TD was the difference.

Chicago 20, Packers 17. Packers set a team record with 18 penalties.

     the ugly:

Eagles 28, Jacksonville 3.  Jags have lost by 25 points for two weeks in a row now - last week at San Diego.

Steelers 38, Tampa Bay 13. 35 year old Charlie Batch threw for 186 yards (12 of 17, but two INT's) and Rashard Mendenhall ran for 143 yards to make the Bucs disappear.

Kansas City 31, Forty Niners 10. It was 10-3 Kansas City at the half. But then the Chiefs speed on O (Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster) took over.

Dallas 27, Texans 13. Texans O just was not in sync.

Colts 27, Denver 13. Denver put up more yards but the Colts put up more points.

     It was AFC 4 and NFC 4 last week. On the season it's AFC 10, NFC 6. Home teams won 9 and the Visiting teams won 7. On the season it's Home 28, Visitors 20. George was 1-0 last week, calling St. Louis over the Redskins. George is now 1-5 on the season. Brad's Picks is 25-23 on the season.

     this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Denver (1-2) at Tennessee (2-1) - Denver's O line is really raw, and you can't get a run game going with a raw O line. Denver is averaging just 2.5 per run. Broncos held the Colts to just 40 yards on 22 carries, despite playing 5 or 6 DB's most of the time. Anyway, here comes Chris Johnson, the best RB in the league right now. Vince Young is no Peyton Manning at QB, so it will be a whole different defensive alignment for the Broncos, aiming mostly at stopping the run instead of stopping the pass.

Kyle Orton and his receivers are putting up huge numbers of yards, but no one is getting it done in the red zone. You gotta take Tennessee at home.

Detroit (0-3) at Green Bay (2-1) - Division game. Detroit is a better team than the last several years, but they will be without 2nd year QB Matt Stafford for at least one more game. Packers are not happy with all their mistakes at Chicago last week, and will win this game. Lions will go to 0-23 on the road.

New York Jets (2-1) at Buffalo (0-3) - Division game. Bills put up 30 points last week, but the Patriots don't have a good defense while the Jets do. If the Jets can win in Miami, they can win in Buffalo.

Seattle (2-1) at St. Louis (1-2) - Division game. Hawks gave up 455 passing yards to Philip Rivers last week. Rookie Sam Bradford isn't as good as Rivers, but he's getting pretty good. Rams beat the Redskins at home last week, so I'm taking the Rams who are at home again.

San Francisco (0-3) at Atlanta (2-1) - Matt Ryan is 14-1 in his home dome. Niners are in total disarray and have a new O coordinator and have to travel across the continent. Take the Falcons.

Baltimore (2-1) at Pittsburgh (3-0) - Division game. Baltimore RB Ray Rice is hurting. Ravens are 1-9 in Pittsburgh. Ravens gave up 173 ground yards on 29 carries to the Browns last week. Steelers gained 209 rush yards on 32 carries last week at Tampa. 35 year old Charlie Batch has another decent game in him (he was 12-17-2-186 and two TD's last week).

Carolina (0-3) at New Orleans (2-1) - Saints won't lose two in a row at home.

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3) - Division game. Bengals were 6-0 in their division last year. They beat the Ravens in Week Two 15-10, but Flacco threw four INT's and had a QB rating of 23.8. Some of that was undoubtedly due to a stout Bengals defense, but some was because Flacco had an off day. This is a harder call than it first appears. Browns have established a heck of a run game with Peyton Hillis mostly - they're averaging 4.5 per carry. Carson Palmer has been looking almost inept lately, but the Browns' QB situation isn't good either, with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace taking turns at mediocrity. Bengals are the better team (really good defense) but something keeps whispering Browns at home.

     the 2:05 MDT games:

Houston (2-1) at Oakland (1-2) - Texans had a bad day at Dallas last week, but they are the better team. Raiders are giving up 4.6 per on the ground. Texans Arian Foster is averaging 5.9 per on the ground.

Undianapolis (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2) - Division game. Colts. Jags have lost both of their last two games by 25 points per game. But you knew that.

     the 2:15 MDT games:

Arizona (2-1) at San Diego (1-2) - It probably won't be long before Cardinals' undrafted rookie QB Max Hall (BYU) starts playing for the Cardinals. Take the Chargers here.

Washington (1-2) at Philadelphia (2-1) - Division game. Donovan McNabb returns to the City of Brotherly Love. Does his experience against the Eagles D benefit him or the Eagles D more? Probably McNabb since he's playing a new system and the Eagles D isn't. Eagles have a bit of a youth movement going, but seem to have remained a good team. And (even though I hate to say it) QB Dog Killer Michael Vick is playing extremely well for the Eagles. Redskins couldn't beat the Rams last week.

     the SNL game:

Chicago (3-0) at New York Giants 1-2) - Tough call. Giants aren't playing well, but they are, or should be, better than they've looked. Bears are the only undefeated team in the NFC. They're doing it without much of a run game, but Jay Cutler is playing very well. And the Bears D is back to its norm. Last week's game against the Packers was looking like a loss with the score tied and the Packers moving the ball. But Brian Urlacher forced a fumble, and a 19 yard FG with 4 seconds left provided the win for the Bears. I'm taking the 3-0 Bears over the 1-2 Giants, whose only win is against the winless Panthers.

     the MNF game:

New England (2-1) at Miami (2-1) - Division game. Patriots had trouble winning in Buffalo last week. Take Miami.

Off this week with the first byes of the season are Kansas City (3-0); Dallas (1-2); Minnesota (1-2); and Tampa Bay (2-1).

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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