Denver Broncos News: Horse Tracks - 10/30/10
by John Bena on Oct 30, 2010 7:31 AM MDT
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Broncos take to cricket ground and forget rout by the Raiders - The Denver Post
With a mighty wallop, Broncos guard Chris Kuper laid down the wood.
Paige: Trying to find a clue in London - The Denver Post
As the handsome, middle- aged man and his entourage strolled down the Park Lane Mews (alley) on Friday night, a proper English chap off to the side stopped, stared and said, "Who are they?"
Embattled coaches, potential successors - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
• Denver Broncos: Up until a week ago, I’d have told you there was no way owner Pat Bowlen would get rid of Josh McDaniels after two years. Then the Broncos lost at home to the Raiders by the unseemly score of 683-11 (OK, it was 59-14, but same difference), and Bill Belichick’s protégé was suddenly on this list. I still think he’ll survive, but he’d better show some improvement in the coming months. Possible replacement: John Fox. My dark horse scenario? Bill Parcells comes to the Rockies, either as football czar (and hires one of his ex-assistants as coach – maybe Chiefs assistant head coach Maurice Carthon? – as he did with Tony Sparano in Miami), or in a return to the sideline. If it’s the latter, given Parcells’ history, look for the Broncos to make the playoffs in 2011.
And now, a musical interlude. R.I.P Joe!!!
Royal, Dawkins both are expected to play - The Denver Post
Coach Josh McDaniels said he expects all the players who made the trip to be healthy enough to play Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers, including wide receiver Eddie Royal and safety Brian Dawkins.
Q&A: Squandering draft picks not the way to move forward - The Denver Post
Q: My issue with Josh McDaniels is that he has squandered too many draft picks. He has blown several first-round selections, and he has traded multiple picks to move up and take players who aren't playing on game day or are not even on the team. Is there a serious issue with Josh McDaniels and/or Brian Xanders when it comes to recognizing talent?
Broncos must start quickly against 49ers - The Denver Post
A somewhat drowsy-looking Broncos team got down to business in London on Friday afternoon — England time — and it was clear the local media here are extremely curious about the Broncos' schedule this week.
Chat with commissioner Goodell: Decertification puts 2011 in jeopardy | All Things Broncos
A few newspaper writers from San Francisco and Denver had a roundtable discussion this morning with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.
Coach says English soccer players a bunch of boozers | All Things Broncos
I checked out three of London’s daily newspapers today to see what the people here were learning about the Denver Broncos.
NFL.com news: Make no mistake: Life without Romo will hurt the Cowboys
With all due respect to wide receiver Roy Williams, the Cowboys, as an organization, are about to learn what life without quarterback Tony Romo will be like.
NFL.com news: Chargers WR Jackson ends holdout, signs $583,000 tender
Disgruntled Pro Bowl wide receiver Vincent Jackson signed his contact tender with the stumbling, turnover-prone San Diego Chargers on Friday.
NFL.com news: Texans owner McNair orders locker room sweep for supplements
Houston Texans owner Bob McNair ordered a sweep of the locker room to make sure none of his players are using banned substances.
NFL.com news: Panthers' Williams doubtful, misses third straight practice
Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams has missed his third straight practice and is doubtful for Sunday's game at St. Louis with an unspecified foot injury.
NFL.com news: Wells in, Hightower out as primary ball carrier for Cards
Beanie Wells will get the starting nod at running back when the Arizona Cardinals meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in Tempe, Ariz.
NFL.com news: Grand jury doesn't indict ex-Raiders QB Russell on drug charge
An Alabama grand jury declined Friday to indict former Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell on a felony drug possession charge related to a drink containing codeine syrup found at his home.
NFL.com news: Favre’s iron-man streak tops Week 8 storylines to follow
As we reach the midway portion of the season, the drama is building. We could see a historic streak could come to an end. Meanwhile, as a few preseason contenders continue to falter, the NFC playoff picture is full of surprises.
NFL.com news: Clutch QB Freeman a young Buc who's growing up fast
Most coaches who look out their office window in January and see a player working on the practice fields, with no playoff game on the docket, would say that particular guy is working ahead.
NFL.com news: Vikings WR Moss among four players fined in Week 7
The NFL fined the Minnesota Vikings' star wide receiver on Friday for failing to cooperate with the news media. Players' contracts specify they must make themselves available to the media at specific times each week. Moss last spoke to the media on Oct. 13, then declined interviews after a win over Dallas on Oct. 17, throughout last week leading up to a loss at Green Bay, and after the defeat.
NFL Videos: Losing it in London?
How close are Josh McDaniels and Mike Singletary to losing their jobs? Trent Green and Rod Woodson debate.
Final Word: AFC West - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Playing time has to be earned in Haley’s world: It will be interesting to see if Kansas City receiver Chris Chambers and defensive end Tyson Jackson play this Sunday against Buffalo. Both players have been healthy scratches in recent weeks, but Jackson did play some last week. Jackson was the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2009 and Chambers was re-signed at a healthy price this offseason. Still, that’s the way it works on Todd Haley’s team. If you don’t produce, you don’t play, no matter when you were picked or how much money you make. It is working because the Chiefs are 4-2 and a very united team. So, unless Jackson and Chambers start working harder in practice, the team will move on without them.
New England Patriots' Patrick Chung, Deion Branch questionable vs. Minnesota Vikings - ESPN Boston
- New England Patriots safety Patrick Chung and receiver Deion Branch are both listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings, which means they have a 50-50 chance of playing.
Final Word: NFC East - NFC East Blog - ESPN
Can the Washington Redskins avenge last season's embarrassing 19-14 loss to the Detroit Lions? Redskins Pro Bowl outside linebacker Brian Orakpo told the NFC East blog on Thursday that Washington's loss to the Lions, which ended a 19-game losing streak, has been on his mind every day since. There's no way Mike Shanahan will let his team take the Lions lightly. Early in this game, the Skins' front seven must do a good job on Lions rookie running back Jahvid Best, who is capable of home run plays on the ground and in the passing game. Linebacker Rocky McIntosh is playing at a high level and that must continue. I'm eager to see if defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is able to put back-to-back solid performances together. He's facing his old defensive coordinator from Tennessee in Jim Schwartz, so you may see him bring a little something extra.
Final Word: NFC West - NFC West Blog - ESPN
Too early to sit down Hall. Kurt Warner generously said he saw a little of himself in new Arizona Cardinals quarterback Max Hall. That was before Hall played in a game. Hall hasn't led a touchdown drive in any of his 25 possessions. Warner, meanwhile, tossed 21 touchdown passes with only three interceptions in his first eight NFL starts. Even so, the Cardinals are right to stick with Hall in Week 8 amid negative reviews. Once the Cardinals made the decision to give Hall a chance, they needed to give him more than two games. Hall does own a 1-1 starting record. There's a decent chance that record will hit 2-1 after facing Tampa Bay. Plenty of time remains to bench Hall if he doesn't improve. It could happen Sunday if Hall falters.
Final Word: NFC South - NFC South Blog - ESPN
Passing the torch. Tampa Bay’s release Friday of starting guard Keydrick Vincent is yet another reminder of how serious the Buccaneers are about building with youth. With that in mind, keep a close eye on how the Bucs, who play Arizona on Sunday, handle their running back situation. I’m not saying Cadillac Williams is ready to be shipped off. He did catch the game-winning touchdown pass last week, and he probably will remain the starter. But the Bucs started giving undrafted rookie LeGarrette Blount carries last week and he responded nicely. That’s going to earn him more time on the field and more carries.
Final Word: AFC East - AFC East Blog - ESPN
Tom Brady should emerge Sunday night with his streak still intact. There are contradictory reports about whether Brett Favre or Tarvaris Jackson will be Minnesota's starting quarterback. But it's safe to say Favre's incredible streak of 291 games (315 counting the postseason) has never been in more jeopardy. Brady is working on his own streak. He has won 23 straight home games. A victory over the Vikings in Gillette Stadium would put him one away from Favre's NFL record set from 1995 to 1998.
Final Word: AFC North - AFC North Blog - ESPN
Big-play Ben: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a chance to make a lot of big plays in Sunday's prime-time matchup against the New Orleans Saints. According to ESPN's Stats and Information, Roethlisberger leads the NFL in passer rating (140.1) and yards per attempt (11.1) against the blitz, which consists of five or more rushers. Roethlisberger is not afraid to hold the ball an extra second or two against pressure to allow his receivers to get downfield. Four of Roethlisberger's five touchdowns passes this year have come against the blitz. The Saints and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams are a blitz-heavy team, which could play into Roethlisberger's hands Sunday.
Final Word: AFC South - AFC South Blog - ESPN
Blitz pick up: If RB Joseph Addai (shoulder) is out for the Colts against the Texans, Indy loses a big piece of its pass protection. Addai is superb at pickups. Donald Brown, also hurt, is not nearly as good. And Mike Hart and Javarris James have not played enough for us to know. It might be a spot for Houston to try to attack, but can the Texans afford to blitz much considering their coverage issues and Peyton Manning’s tendency to find the open guy?
Final Word: NFC North - NFC North Blog - ESPN
Brick wall: Whether it's an injured Brett Favre or backup Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback Sunday for the Minnesota Vikings, you would have to assume the play calling will be the same: A whole lot of tailback Adrian Peterson. Peterson ranks second in the NFL with 684 rushing yards despite having played only six games, and he might be the team's safest option at Gillette Stadium. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the New England Patriots recently made a personnel shift that has tightened up their run defense substantially. After moving Vince Wilfork from nose tackle to defensive end, the Patriots have limited their past two opponents -- the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers -- to a combined 2.6 yards per carry. That's the lowest mark in the NFL over that stretch. The Vikings will have their hands full, no matter what direction they turn, as they attempt to end a seven-game losing streak on the road.
How Brad Childress will make the Brett Favre decision - Peter King - SI.com
The Minnesota Vikings do not know if Brett Favre will make his 316th straight NFL start (including playoffs) Sunday in Foxboro against the Patriots, and that's the truth. This is how it's going to work with Favre and his injured ankle this weekend: Coach Brad Childress will watch him at practice Friday in Eden Prairie, Minn., and then again Saturday in the team's walk-through practice before flying to Massachusetts in the afternoon, before deciding whether Favre or Tarvaris Jackson will play in the vital game at New England.
Ex-assistants proving there's only one Belichick - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
The image of Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels pumping his fist and exhorting the home crowd after a 20-17 overtime victory over the New England Patriots and former boss Bill Belichick on Oct. 11, 2009 is still fresh in the minds of many.
Friday new$ and note$ | National Football Post
The ramping up of fines, ejections and suspensions by the NFL with the violent hits is about many things. Above all, however, it is about the business of the NFL.
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I can't believe Woodson gets paid for his blathering.
What a completely uninformed waste of air time….
Officially on record with a 10-6 prediction for 2010! (8/21/10)
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
how to dismantle a team in 2 years?
because a decade of mediocrity was top for the organization when josh took over.
same tired argument, woodson is clueless.
is J Mcd on the hotseat? absolutely. as is every coach in this league. there is a premium on winning and the broncos are doing less and less of it lately. but i would think it has almost nothing to do with the reasons woodson listed (cutler, marshall, Nolan).
The poster formerly known as "Denver_Diaspora"
by Jay Fin Anderson on Oct 30, 2010 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the tracks! I'll be happy when we start racking up some wins....
and get these people to layoff the hoodie crap LOL
Officially on record with a 10-6 prediction for 2010! (8/21/10)
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
That Parcells rumor is already annoying
Over/under on time of first DP Online comment calling for Parcells?
Silver is smoking something
In good times and bad times, I'm a Bronco fan. Sucka.
by broncosmontana on Oct 30, 2010 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t have any issue with him being GM
by Todd Jewell on Oct 30, 2010 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions
Me neither
I was taken aback by the suggestion. Frankly, I question how Silver would arrive at that (wildly hypothetical) solution.
However, I’ll give in and say this: I am a huge supporter of knowing what you have (or don’t have) before cutting bait and have been a staunch McDaniels supporter. But if Bill Parcells wanted to come to Denver, I would think Bowlen and anyone else in the organization would move mountains for it to happen and I’d be happy as a clam.
WHy do they say happy as a clam? eing a clam would suck! Sand in your mouth mall day. Yeck.
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Go Broncos!
Ew.
In good times and bad times, I'm a Bronco fan. Sucka.
by broncosmontana on Oct 30, 2010 11:22 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
It was orgienally
“Happy as a clam at high tide.” Which was when clams were safe from birds and other animals because they were completely sumbmerged by the higher tides. Then people just shortened it to happy as a clam
by Warren Todd on Oct 30, 2010 7:18 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
If nothing else...
Parcells around would mean more time on ESPN. So there’s that.
Clash in the morning
What a flippin great way to start a Saturday morning! Thanks for that!!!!!!!
In good times and bad times, I'm a Bronco fan. Sucka.
ahhh, joe strummer and co.
nice add, john! go broncs. get off your respective butts.
I'm not sugarcoating this.
Thoughts
I’ve made peace with loss last season and after thinking over it, here is what’s been on my mind. Keep in mind that I haven’t been here much this week, and the radio hate for Josh McDaniels has started to drive me a little crazy.
When you lose a game that badly, part of it falls on everyone involved, not just the coach like many have tried to make it out to be. Certainly McDaniels has to be criticized for not being able to settle his team down and get them to focus after a bad start, but the players really let down this week in terms of mental toughness. With that said-
On the first offense play(Orton Pick), there were 2 other open options, and Orton didn’t make any other reads, staring down and forcing the pass in on the quick slant. Anyone who knows McDaniels offense knows what makes the QB successful is making the right reads. Orton did not do that on our first play of the game, for whatever reason. He must have more focus at the beggining of the game about what he needs to do. My one gripe about Orton has always been in game leadership(his work ethic in practice is great) and I think this kinda falls into it. When you’re down 7-0 early, you need to start off with a completion and make sure your team at least gets 3, you must protect the ball.
Once we were down 14-0, got the ball back, and ran that reverse to Thomas, who fumbled, the game was 21-0 in under 8 minutes. Thomas has shown us all glimpses of what could be a GREAT wideout, but he’s also shown that he’s a rookie with a lot to learn at this level still. How he holds the ball is terrible.
With the misfortune of being down that quickly with only running 2 offensive plays is unheard of. The team had to of been in shock, and the only person(s) that can fix that, that early, IN-GAME, are the players. On our team, it needed to be Dawkins on the defense, and Kyle Orton on the offense. Dawkins was gone due to injury, and I promise you with him in the lineup he mentally and emotionally gathers the team down 21-0 and gets them to hold the Raiders to about 20-25 pts less in the game. On offense, KO had his worst game of the year, over and under throwing, throwing behind the wr, no top QB- “I don’t give a **** we’re down 21, there’s a ton of time left and you have to stop ME now”(hate to say it but don’t we have that guy on the bench?). When we got Orton we knew he wasn’t that guy, some of us thought he could become that guy with McD’s guidance, he’s certainly become a much better Qb, but he’s still not that guy.
This week decides the year and maybe(don’t want to put tooooo much on it) Josh McDaniels fate in Denver(i still think he gets next year no matter what). If we win, it shows positives for Josh being able to calm the storm after an awful week, and be able to fuel his team by the loss. If we lose, and look lifeless, it may mean that this team has quit on Josh, or that they aren’t buying into his schemes or coaching style, etc. Which down the road will play it self out, once that decisions made in the locker room, there’s rarely a time where a coach is able to win his guys back quickly. I’m certainly hoping we win, and win big, with the players executing. GO Broncos!!!! 31-13.
by Iwasfn47 on Oct 30, 2010 11:12 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
I think you're right
Start the game with the goal of getting a first down on the first series. Then build from there.
I am thinking that the Jets game was emotionally draining for the team and that they thought they should have won it. What I don’t understand is why the players didn’t prepare for a division rival game.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
by KaptainKirk on Oct 30, 2010 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
I really can't overstate how important Dawkins is to the D
Mentally and as a player. Moreso mentally at this point though.
Great post
The idea that a team can be down 21-0 only 5 minutes into the game is crazy and even nuttier is the idea that Denver had run 2 plays on offense and Oakland’s offense (nobody should have been surprised considering the past few years of performance) was cutting through Denver’s defense like a hot knife through butter.
Thing is, Denver did kinda quit. The other thing is, I didn’t think Denver had a snowball’s chance in hell of overcoming a 21-0 lead and to make matters worse, Oakland scored 2 more TDs in the next 20 minutes. The game was over by the end of the 1st quarter. In some sense, I wanted Denver to throw out the white flag and call it a day, put in the backups and live to fight another day. So I guess I kinda wanted them to quit.
The 2007 Pats wouldn’t have been able to come back from 35+ points down in the 2nd quarter with the way Oakland’s O-Line was blocking. No F’n chance.
Yeah, it was a bummer and more than anything – I was ready to see the fans and media commit to the fire McD bandwagon after the game, which happened. Let’s just say it, in the minds of more than half of the fans and most of the media, McD is done.
He still absolutely controls his own fate and he can overcome what’s happened so far and like you, I think he, at VERY least gets the first half of next year to get this thing going in a good direction.
Now, a loss this week will sink him further.
A few other assorted notes on this post (rec’d btw):
-Orton often throws to his first read if his first read is on the right sideline and running an out or a go and has man coverage. The Raiders knew this.
-For all the improvement in Orton, he still has the same core deficiency he’s always had: inability to operate at a high level when things aren’t going well, in the face of a blitz, or at the end of a close game. This is the #1 reason why people are talking about Tebow playing. It’s less about Tebow and more about NOT using Orton. I know his numbers have been great and he’s playing at the highest level of his career, but when the chips are in the middle of the table and we’re throwing on every play, I have ZERO faith that our Orton led offense will deliver.
-Like you, I’m watching to see how Denver’s players rebound after last week. No coach is perfect and no team is perfect, and eventually everybody falls off of their horse. What matters is how they pick themselves up and dust themselves off that counts to me. This coach in Denver has to follow Mike Shanahan, who for all of his warts, was the coaching equivalent of John Elway, to Denver fans anyway. McD’s job is similar to Griese’s. To follow a legend. That’s a very tough job.
-The one thing nobody, not football fans, not the press, not anyone in this country has, is patience. Unfortunately, if you are a Broncos fan, you MUST be patient for then next 2 to 3 seasons. I don’t care if Bellichick or Shanahan or Gruden or Parcells showed up to coach next week, this team’s at least 2 seasons away from being a dangerous team IN THE PLAYOFFS.
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Go Broncos!
The first quarter Sunday is what I am looking for
Denver didn’t respond well after the loss to the Jets, so maybe getting destroyed will wake them up…..I hope. I know McD defers when winning the toss, however I would like to get the ball first and put 7 on the board right away. Either way, how we start out is key.
Floyd Little: HOF Class of 2010.
2009-10 back-to-back NBA Champions L.A Lakers
2009-10 NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant
Yeah - I hope so
Last year Denver couldn’t have responded worse to the Baltimore loss…
Subscribe FREE to my weekly PODcast on iTunes. The Denver broncos Podcast (http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-denver-broncos-podcast/id393488394)
Go Broncos!
Troy, NY wants to know if I think the Broncos are rethinking drafting Demaryius Thomas over Dez Bryant.
this was a question asked on the AFC West blog on espn. i thought it was funny.
by tiderfootball09 on Oct 30, 2010 1:19 PM MDT reply actions
........ fwiw, I am not the Troy they are referring to. I am not, now, nor have I ever resided in New York.
Okay. I feel better. And no, I don’t think that the Broncos are rethinking Thomas, either.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by Troy Hufford on Oct 30, 2010 1:46 PM MDT up reply actions
troy
why didn’t you tell me you moved to ny?
Follow me on Twitter: ballinnickcast
Xbox360 gamertag: SnipeMeHarder
"I'm really not this fat. I'm looking at myself on the screen and that 14 looks huge. Jeez dude, do a sit up." -John "Guru" Bena
I was trying to get further away from you.
Didn’t work, did it? :)
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by Troy Hufford on Oct 30, 2010 9:02 PM MDT up reply actions
if we got parcells here
it wouild be like winning the super bowl best case a super bowl s worst case AFC west champs every year for 5 years or a team like dallas if we got parcells we are a team to be feared right now sure it wouild only be 2-3 years but he wouild bulid a souild foundation i like McD but i think he wantes the N E job when bill b reites and beside ESPN and NFL N wouild kiss our butts insted of bashing us we allready run the 3-4 parells is great at finding 3-4 guys the dream ser is parcells coach for a year or two then gm a year or two
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
Am I the only one?
who is wondering while in the hell, after getting beat 59-14 at home by oakland, that we are practicing crickett?
I think they need some time practicing football. American football.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
Thanks John!
Always appreciate the Tracks…
Take my advice... I'm not using it!
"If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague."
Let
Parcells be GM, no coach should be a GM, Andy Reid is the exception rather than the rule but eventually the two jobs will get him fired just like Shanny
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Oct 30, 2010 11:18 PM MDT reply actions
I agree
I don’t think it’s usually a good idea for the coach to wear too many hats. They’re to busy during the season to be watching the endless hours of film on college players necessary to effectively evaluate draft prospects. I don’t think anyone would have the time. Let the GM deal with personnel. Let the coach coach.
re: Legwold column
" – Q: My issue with Josh McDaniels is that he has squandered too many draft picks. … "
And the Broncos have had some draft issues. The first is all of the trades the team has made — and there have been plenty — when they have targeted players they’ve wanted.
When using a draft-value chart that is commonly used by teams around the league, the Broncos have routinely surrendered picks that are worth more in the point value on that chart than the picks they’ve gotten in return.
Legwold provides a number of caveats, such as the fact that we’re still going to see value for our high picks but it’s just too early. I’m not here to defend Thomas, Moreno, et al, but there’s some mathematical ideas that nearly everyone misses when looking at our drafts. And I wanted to point them out.
Our retention of value has been good the last two years despite the prevailing attitude among some fans that there has been an excessive amount of busts. Moreover, the most significant point that fans need to be aware of is that the trades of Culter and Marshall divested our roster of experienced talent and replaced it with rookies, who rarely make significant immediate contributions. However, fans nearly always expect too much when it comes to rookies (and 2nd year) players, so being disappointed is typical, but this does not mean that they won’t contribute in time.
I’ve seen arguments framed illegitimately to compare the older and more established Cutler and Marshall with the players we picked in trade. The best way of examining this idea is to compare both players to the younger versions of themselves. Neither player produced at a high level early in his career so, for instance, a comparison between a rookie Cutler and a 4th year Cutler would produce the same reaction of disappointment if we used the ‘how come he hasn’t produced yet? metric to the rookie Cutler. There’s no way to avoid this disappointment unless you take the apples and oranges experience aspect of the comparison into account. Moreover, having younger players may disappoint some fans (especially those looking for instant results) but all players have to have rookie years. Don’t complain about it unless you want to forgo the dividend that comes later. The argument essentially casts being a rookie in a negative light rather than considering it as stepping stone to better things.
My real reason for posting — however — is to examine the idea of waste, as is presented in the following excerpt:
.. the Broncos have had some draft issues. The first is all of the trades the team has made — and there have been plenty — when they have targeted players they’ve wanted.
When using a draft-value chart that is commonly used by teams around the league, the Broncos have routinely surrendered picks that are worth more in the point value on that chart than the picks they’ve gotten in return.
Let me call this idea which relates to ‘pinching [draft] pennies’ WASTAGE. There’s psychological reasons for why we see wastage and ignore other areas of the bottom line but a quick answer would be that we don’t do math involving complex calculations very well off the tops of our heads. All teams waste some pick value. It can even be a sign that the roster is stacked and doesn’t have spare room. Firstly, we actually haven’t wasted much pick value, so it’s merely a mistaken belief. Mostly, it comes from incessant criticism of the trades for Smith and Quinn, which has shaped perceptions. The mathematical problem of reducing wastage could be compared to an idea in engineering called the angle of repose.
Engineers building the Panama canal discovered that loose material can only be stacked to a certain height before it slides back down and spreads out. This is the angle of repose. The problem with the perception of wastage is that that there’s an upward bound to the amount of talent that can be kept. Teams are continuously shedding a certain amount of talent so keeping every single draft pick is not necessarily a sign of anything other than a poor level of veteran talent. It’s pointless to get too excited about keeping all your draft picks if it merely means that you have to cut FAs, and vice versa. Teams reach an angle of repose that limits how much talent they can keep, and the only thing that really matters is if that talent is superior.
We’ve retained a tremendous amount of draft talent AND FAs in the last two years so the wastage has been quite minimal. Concern over the premium we’ve paid for inducing trades is somewhat misplaced because the ‘juice’ that we’ve paid is equivalent to cutting some late round draft picks — which almost all teams do. Moreover, much of the pick value that teams acquire is merely unaccounted for, such as the equivalent pick value for FAs. Much of our entire value budget is simply ignored because there is no trade value chart point value assigned to FA vets. What people see as wastage is in many cases superfluous talent that can’t be carried on the 53 man roster anyways. I can’t get worked up about wasting a 6th round draft pick’s point value if a dozen or more players each having equivalent value are cut in the final cut because we don’t have room.
There’s a huge reservoir of talent out there but it doesn’t mean anything unless you can find a good fit for your roster. The 53 man limit is like the angle of repose. The only thing that matters is whether you’ve maximized the talent level on your roster, but the mathematical formula for this becomes devilish because there are limits to the number of players that each position and area can carry. For instance, a good 3rd stringer at one position may never be active while a competent reserve elsewhere may become crucial if there’s an injury. It’s a heterogeneous environment in which values are often not fungible. For instance, drafting the highest rated player can be useless if he’s eventually going to be cut but drafting a player who fills a need can hold far more utility. The difference in Big Board point value is irrelevant since the better decision is to take the player with the lower point value.
A final problem with our concept of a talent budget is that it’s not cumulative even though fans conceive of it that way. A number of players might be tried at a position, and each of them can be equivalent to the ‘juice’ we spend to entice a trade. The total value of the all those players is quite large but it’s meaningless since they inhabit the roster sequentially. The fact that we’ve ‘lost’ that pick value is utterly meaningless even though it would mean something if our wastage theory made sense. Teams often need to sift through a number of players before finding the right one, and sifting through more is usually better than sifting through less even though it seems to create greater wastage.
Spending a lot of pick value on players you don’t need is a great way to create wastage. The concept has some validity but it’s misunderstood. We spend years looking for deals in the early zeros in the hope of finding one gem in the rough. This is one of the most common mistakes that teams make, and that do it in the name of frugality.
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
by Colinski on Oct 31, 2010 12:22 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
That is a terrific analogy C
The 53 man limit is like the angle of repose. The only thing that matters is whether you’ve maximized the talent level on your roster, but the mathematical formula for this becomes devilish because there are limits to the number of players that each position and area can carry.
This is a rare instance where I think extending the analogy helps. Angle of repose contains several specific factors that can assessed, and which translate to ‘piling up’ the roster. Density of particles could be considered a measure of intangibles, shape of the particle is its roster position, surface area of the particle is a measure of how much room there is on the roster for a position, and those factors all interplay to create a coefficient of friction, which translates to the level of competition experienced by any given ‘particle’.
If I needed to calculate angle of repose on a project, the best/fastest way to do so (unless there is already collected data for reference, as is the case with a lot of foundation materials—the concrete ‘slump test’ is an impromptu angle of repose calculation) is to make a quick pile and let the particles fall where they may. In practice, this is the McX (and many other coaches) roster strategy: Make an 80 man pile, and let ‘particle competition’ sort out the final makeup of the pile. What is interesting is how it contrasts with the Shanny strategy, which often amounted to a Sisyphusian effort to get players like Moss, Marshall, and others not to roll off the pile. That is energy that could be spent elsewhere. Certain particle properties lend themselves to problems in creating a pile that maxes out the 53 number but maintains enough equilibrium not to shed particles. A player like Cutler is akin to throwing a dense electromagnet into the pile. Its density almost guarantees that it will stay on most any pile it is thrown on, but if a charge goes into it, watch out, because particles will scatter everywhere…
Great perils have this beauty, that they bring to light the fraternity of strangers.
by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 31, 2010 8:23 AM MDT up reply actions
whoops
Density of particles could be considered a measure of intangibles
I have no idea why I said that, what I meant to say was that particle density could be represented by the overall “talent level” of the player. In a draft a lot of the first round players would be considered to be very dense particles. throw them on any given pile, and even if the pile is already maxed out, the heavier particle will merely displace lighter particles, creating “mini” angles of repose around it that force particles to shed. Big name free agents also represent major density additions, and the analogy gives a clue as to why their addition is not always a good thing. If you have a solid 53 and you throw a dense FA on the pile, it just may displace enough other material to leave your 53 more deficient than before they were added. In this sense the pile needs to be sculpted or ‘massaged’ in order to receive a dense addition with minimal disruption.
Great perils have this beauty, that they bring to light the fraternity of strangers.
by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 31, 2010 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions
late response
I don’t know how much I can add to the formal aspects of the problem, but I’ve previously written about analogous situations such as “replacing a temporary structure,” which to me encompasses aspects of the repose metaphor.
What I can say — few fans ever bother to assign values to the team’s many acquisitions other than draft picks. I’d say that Bannan, Jamal Williams and Vickerson represent a savings (or the opposite of wastage) over the players they replaced (Holliday, Peterson & Baker). I’d also say that Hunter & Mays represent a savings over Reid and Davis. We could talk about other areas, too, such as RB. Is Maroney so bad that we’d take Jordan back in his place? We’ve had OL problems, particularly at OT, but do we miss Gorin and Polumbus?
I see a lot of upgrades that have yet to translate into team success. I trust in analysis based on evaluations of individual areas even though win/loss record should be the final measuring stick. These area-based analytics mostly show that we’re getting younger, which comes with all the usual problems but it’s not the inexperience that’s most disruptive. Despite the apparent upgrades, we’re still dealing with a lot of change and that tends to get lost in the personnel issues. Our injuries haven’t just taken some of our better players off the field, they’ve also severely limited the time that players have spent working together. We will be reducing amount of change as we add fewer player in the future.
Bringing in a large amount of talent in a short period of time has a price, as rebuilding teams find out. Talent level can be a misleading metric unless you factor in experience playing together. Our talent level has been brought back up to par with a few exceptions, which we can address in the offseason, but we’ve yet to develop any synergy because of all the changes and injuries.
I think the rebuilding process is done once we add FAs and the next draft crop. The repose problem isn’t so much about static structures but about change. Stable structures are well-configured but any structure that undergoes continuous stresses and strains has trouble staying in a stable configuration. The problem is that you have to make a lot of changes to replace the parts of the old team with new and better parts. The transition period is what’s called “rebuilding a boat as you cross a lake.”
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
more on the analogy...
obviously you’ve struck a chord with me…
Has anyone ever done one of those programs or classes where you build a little stick bridge or tower and then subject it to a testing device where it is strained to failure? This is poor preparation for real life engineering problems because the building of the little bridge is always constrained by relatively arbitrary factors, such as weight, materials, but ultimately, the fact that you HAVE to build the little bridge, since in real life overengineering is allowed and common (many codes have very specific percentages by which you must over-engineer something, and ultimately, if you don’t feel you have the materials to create the perfect structure, you can opt-out, and build nothing.
The NFL is similar to the classroom test in that factors are arbitrary (limited player pool, ‘pile limits’, etc) with the same result that you HAVE to field a product, even if the dog really DID eat it…. The 80 man pile is built in a completely static environment, where it is put under none of the dynamic stresses that are required of its final form. This is a unique dilemma that leads to building rosters on principles, i.e. based on theoretical ideas, rather than existential stress tests. If your principles aren’t right, than your 80 won’t be right, and if your 80 isn’t right, your 53 can’t be right, if your 53 isn’t right your gameday 45 can’t be right, and if the gameday 45 isn’t right, the score isn’t going to be right. This is a difficult chain to build properly when the ‘rules’ of pile building essentially force you to start blind….
Great perils have this beauty, that they bring to light the fraternity of strangers.
by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 31, 2010 9:11 AM MDT up reply actions
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