While I have not posted often, I regularly read other opinions on this site to see what other Broncos fans are thinking. I have a website dedicated to unique statistics that are unlike football outsiders or other complex statistics websites.
You can view it at www.queuestats.webnode.com
I simply take the numbers and manipulate them to tell the truth. Unfortunately, Denver has struggled in every key area that I measure. After the jump, I will show a few examples of what I mean and how Denver has performed.
I first want to state a truth: there are two kinds of false statistics.
The first: A stat can be deemed "incorrect"
Under this example, journalists and fans use a number that actually does not represent what each person says it does.
Right now, NFL.com lists total points per game as offensive points. Fans, journalists and announcers would all state Tennessee is the #1 scoring offense with 28.0 PPG. However, not all of their points have come on offense as we all know. They scored on a kick return against Denver and have a total of 18 non-offensive points this year.
Tennessee actually comes in at #2 with 25.8 offensive PPG, while the New York Giants lead the league with 27 offensive PPG.
While some would say that non-offensive scoring takes away from the offense, that occurrence has little effect on how many points an offense scores. Against several teams, New England and Green Bay have put up over 24+ points against their opponents while notching double non-offensive touchdowns. Finally, Seattle failed to score much on offense against San Diego, not because they scored 2 touchdowns on returns, but because their offense failed to do much of anything.
The second: A stat can be deemed "misinterpreted"
When listing the best offenses, NFL.com organizes it automatically by total yards. For this reason, yards have been the common number correlating to offensive success. The same goes with a defense.
The truth is, offensive points scored and allowed are much better indicators of a unit's success.
Right now, Denver is #8 in total offense, but tied for #18 with 19.3 offensive PPG. Simply put, better offenses score more points, not gain more yards.
The Moral of the Story
Well, other than trying to convince each of you to view my updated website, my goal is to simply provide a guide to correct and accurate statistical analysis. Stats don't need to be complex, they just need to represent the truth.
If people had known this two years ago, maybe Cutler and co. wouldn't have been considered to run one of the best offenses with nearly 400 yards per game. That unit only scored 23.1 PPG on offense.
KC @ DEN
You can view this on the homepage, but here it is.
Kansas City @ Denver
Kansas City's loss to Oakland now leaves the division in question as to which team will take charge and become AFC West champs. Denver had a much needed bye week to accomplish 3 things - get healthy, regroup and establish an identity.
For some teams, like Philadephia, a bye week is wonderful. With the win over Indianapolis, Andy Reid's Eagles moved to 12-0 after the bye week. Unfortunately for Denver, the only stat for them in comparison is winning the home opener. Well, this is at home and against the division leader who is every bit as tough as Oakland for many of the same reasons.
If Denver is going to compete, they must focus on the fundamentals, play with passion and get the crowd into the football game.
By The Numbers
In almost every category, Denver appears to have no chance. The Chiefs own the advantage in each of these categories:
|Net QB Rating||9.2||8||-5.5||24|
The only advantage Denver owns is with Orton. His 70.2 quarterback rating slightly edges Cassel's 69.9 quarterback rating. The telling statistic that measures this is the last stat on the chart above. Denver is last place in the NFL is turnovers + penalty average + net third down percentage. This will be where the game is won or lost for this team, who at times has actually performed far better than the numbers indicate. Costly penalties and turnovers have wiped away numerous touchdowns.
For this team to win, it must learn to play disciplined football. Thankfully, my predictions are only around 60 percent accurate. Therefore, that means Denver can be a part of that 40 percent that win against apparent superior opponents. The one stat going their way - favored road teams only win 55 percent of the time. Its time for Denver to demonstrate they can perform in front of their home crowd.
Even though my statistic has Kansas City favored, and for good reason, my belief is a healthy and aggressive Denver team can not only compete, but defeat most teams in the NFL. Hopefully, that holds true.
Areas of Focus
O-Line: Protect Orton and help Moreno average 4.0 YPC
D-Line: Utilize same run-blitzing scheme that worked effectively against Chris Johnson
Key Stat for a Victory
Miscellaneous: No Turnovers. Limit Penalties. Convert on 3rd downs.