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Brad's NFL Picks - Week 11 - 2010

 

Brad's Picks was 8-6 last week.

     the good:

Atlanta 26, Ravens 21. Zero points scored in the first quarter. Both teams scored two TD's in the 4th. Ravens took the lead with a minute left, but the Falcons scored the game winning TD with 20 seconds left.

Denver 49, Chiefs 29. - Not counting the first 19 minutes of the game, the Chiefs outscored the Broncos 29-14. Anyway, Kyle Orton turned 28 last Sunday, and his O line gave him the best birthday present a quarterback could ask for - no KC player laid a hand on him.

Buffalo 14, Lions 12. Lions have now lost 25 straight road games, beating the old record of 24 which was also set by the Lions.

Undeplis 23, Bengals 17. - Manning had a QB rating of less that 70 for the second week in a row, but the Colts scored 17 points off five turnovers by the Bengals - one of the Colts TDs was on a 31 yard INT return.

Tampa Bay 31, Panthers 16. - It was really a closer game than the score might show. But Cadillac Williams broke free late in the game with a 45 yard TD run on a third and ten play.

Seahawks 36, Arizona 18. I have to thank George for making this pick.

Patriots 39, Pittsburgh 26. - Tom Brady's Patriots are now 6-1 against the Steelers, and 4-1 in Pittsburgh.

Eagles 59, Washington 28. Eagles must have thought it was pretty cool when the Broncos went up 35-0 over the Chiefs early in the second quarter so they did the same thing to Washington.

     the rest after the jump:

     the bad:

Jacksonville 31, Texans 24. It was 24-24 with just seconds left. A Hail Mary pass by David Garrard was knocked down in the end zone by a Texan, but it flew into the knees of a Jag at the one yard line. He bobbled it for a bit, then stepped into the end zone. Texans have now lost 4 in a row to the Jags.

Jets 26, Cleveland 20. OT. This almost ended in a tie, but with 16 seconds left, Santonio Holmes reeled in a 37 yard TD pass. Second Jets OT win on the road in two weeks. Jets are now 5-0 on the road. (2-2 at home).

San Francisco 23, Rams 20. OT. - Troy Smith is 2-0 as the starting QB for the Niners. Rams are now 0-4 on the road.

     the ugly:

Chicago 27, Vikings 13. - Neither of Vikings receivers Sidney Rice nor Bernard Berrian played, and Vikings' center John Sullivan left the game after the first possession. Jay Cutler threw three TD's and two INT's. Brett Favre threw one TD and three INT's.

Miami 29, Titans 17. Miami lost it's first two quarterbacks but still got a win over a good team. Miami finally won a home game, and is now 1-3 at home.

Cowboys 33, New York Giants 20. Not even Jerry Jones expected this. Giants had won five in a row but only one of those wins was to a team with a winning record. No team has won 6 in a row this year.

     It was AFC 1, NFC 1 last week. On the season, it's AFC 22, NFC 18. Home teams won 9, Visitors won 5. On the season it's H 84, V 60. Brad's Picks is 79-65. George picked the Seahawks to win, and George is now 2-6 on the season.

     Off with a bye last week were Green Bay (5-3), New Orleans (5-3), Oakland (4-4), and San Diego (3-5). And that will do it for byes this season.

     this week's games: the Thursday night game:

Chicago (6-3) at Miami (5-4) - Both Chad Pennington and Chad Henne were knocked out of the game last week. Pennington is done for the year, and Henne won't be able to play this Thursday on a sore knee. But Tyler Thigpen played pretty good last week when he went in (4-6-0-64 and a nine yard TD to seal the win). But the Dolphins LT Jake Long suffered a dislocated shoulder last week - he'll need surgery but hopes to put it off until after the season. As of now, he plans to give it a go Thursday night, probably wearing a harness of some sort. Center Joe Berger sat out Tuesday's practice with a sore knee. Not good news when you're facing Julius Peppers and the rest of the Bears D line. I expect to see the Dolphins dust off the Wildcat formation - it's hard for a defense to prepare for on a short week. Bears looked good last week against a Vikings team that didn't. Should be a good game. I'll take Cutler and his Bears over Thigpen and his Dolphins, who are 1-3 in Miami.

     the Sunday 11:00 MST games:

Baltimore (6-3) at Carolina (1-8) - Not a good time to be a Carolina fan. Ravens have had an extra three days to get ready and aren't going to lose two in a row to an NFC South team.

Buffalo (1-8) at Cincinnati (2-7) - Cincinnati has now lost 6 straight, and they'll be looking ahead to a Thanksgiving evening game at the New York Jets, who beat them in the playoffs last January 9. But the Bengals defense looked pretty good at the Unplace last week, holding the Colts offense to one TD and three FG's. But the Bills got a run game going at home against a good Lions D line, gaining 151 on 33 carries. Bills have been decent on the road (an OT loss at Arrowhead for example) and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been better than steady at QB. This is a tough call. Bengals were 10-6 last year, but the Bills were 6-10. Bills have been playing tough lately under the new coaching staff, while the Bengals seem to have lost something. I'm taking the Bills.

Detroit (2-7) at Dallas (2-7) - These two teams will play again next Thursday in the Thanksgiving Day thing. Why is that? Detroit and Dallas every year? Both will lose on Thanksgiving, Detroit to the Patriots and Dallas to the Saints. But what about this game? Dallas looked good last week in beating the Giants. Jon Kitna was 13-22-1-327 and 3 TD passes. Rookie WR Dez Bryant is playing great. I'm taking Dallas.

Cleveland (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4) - Cleveland has played the toughest schedule in the NFL this year - their opponents have a combined 52-29 record. Jacksonville has been playing pretty good lately. David Garrard only has 1,440 yards, but with Maurice Jones-Drew running the ball he doesn't need to throw a lot. He does have 15 TD's and 7 INT's and a QB rating of 104. Browns will be without return man and WR Joshua Cribbs, so I'll take the Jaguars at home.

Arizona (3-6) at Kansas City (5-4) - Derek Anderson is the Cardinals QB by default. He's thrown 6 TD's and 8 INT's and has a QB rating of 68. Cards got pounded at home last week by the Seahawks. Chiefs got pounded at Mile High by the Broncos. Chiefs are probably the better team, and they are at home.

Green Bay (6-3) at Minnesota (3-6) - Division game. Green Bay is off a bye.  Vikings took a pounding last week in Chicago and I'll take the Packers.  This could be Brett Favre's last game - if the Vikings lose, there will be seven NFC teams with at least a 3 game lead on them (even if all seven lose this week). That might mean Tarvaris Jackson becomes the starting QB, getting ready for next year.

Houston (4-5) at New York Jets (7-2) - Houston has now lost 3 in a row, and 4 of the last 5. Jets have won two OT games in a row (both road games - Detroit and then Cleveland). After this game, they'll play the Bengals on Turkey Day Evening. Rex Ryan is 2-0 against the Texans, once as the Ravens DC, and last year as the Jets HC, a 24-7 win in Week One at Houston. But the Texans have found a run game since then - Arian Foster is averaging 5.3 per carry. Peyton Hillis cranked out 82 on 19 last week against the Jets. So I expect the Texans offense to put up some yards and points. But the Jets offense will do the same against the Texans very bad defense. I'm taking the Jets at home.

Oakland (5-4) at Pittsburgh (6-3) - Raiders are off a bye, while the Steelers are nursing yet another loss to Tom Brady. But not counting losses to Brady, the Steelers are the best at winning home games. But the Steelers O line problems are huge, having recently lost their LT for the season and LG Chris Kemoeatu will likely miss this game, or at least be much less than 100% with a bum knee. And here comes Richard Seymour. And Tommy Kelly. Raiders are much improved, having won five games already this year, as many as all of 2009. I won't be surprised if the Raiders pull out a road win. They did it last year in Pittsburgh in Week 13, 27-24. Raiders have injuries of their own despite the week off. Nnamdi Asomugha is limping, as is TE Zack Miller. I've gone back and forth on this one. In the end I'll take the Steelers at home in the eastern time zone.

Washington (4-5) at Tennessee (5-4) - Vince Young should be healthy. Reds D is pretty bad, especially against the run, and here comes Chris Johnson. Take the T's.

     the 2:05 MST games:

Seattle (5-4) at New Orleans (6-3) - Saints are off a bye. Seahawks are off a big win at Arizona last week. But before last week, the Seahawks were outscored 74-10 in the previous two games. Teams off a bye playing at home are 13-3 this year. Saints are rounding into 2009 form.

Atlanta (7-2) at St. Louis (4-5) - Two dome teams go at it. If this game were in Atlanta, I wouldn't hesitate to pick the Falcons. Rams are a decent team and they play better at home (4-1 there) but you still have to take the Falcons - they're just the better team.

Tampa Bay (6-3) at San Francisco (3-6) - Niners needed OT to beat the Rams last week, and the Buccaneers are a lot better than the Rams. Josh Freeman is playing really well at QB for them and LeGarrette Blount is coming on at RB.

     the 2:15 MST game:

Undee (6-3) at New England (7-2) - Peyton Manning is 4-1 against Tom Brady since 2005. Patriots D is not very good but has held up against opponents because of Bill Belichick's schemes, but I bet Manning can read them OK. I'd take the Colts because of Manning but losing TE Dallas Clark has hurt, and Austin Collie will likely miss another game because of his concussion. RB's Joseph Addai and Mike Hart are also likely out, as is LB Clint Session. Their back up TE's are hurting (sore ribs, sore back). Patriots have had their share of injuries also this year, but they were mostly early in the season. These teams played in the UnPlace last year, and the Colts won 35-34. Weather should be nice for November - upper 30's for the game. Take the Patriots at home.

     the SNF game:

New York Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia (6-3) - Division game. Giants have to be ticked off after losing a division game to the Cowboys. Eagles have to be elated after winning a division game at Washington. Giants had a five game win streak broken by the Boys last week, but most of those wins were against teams with poor records. The smart money is to take the Eagles at home.

     the MNF game:

Denver (3-6) at San Diego 4-5) - Division game. Chargers off a bye, Broncos off a big easy win over the Chiefs at Mile High. Broncos played at San Diego on MNF in Week Six last season and won 34-23. Philip Rivers and Kyle Orton are the two leading QB's in the league, at least in the stats department. Rivers has 2,944 yards with 19 TD's and 8 INT's, and a rating of 103. Orton has 2,806 yards with 16 TD's and 5 INT's and a rating of 96. Rivers has been playing great with a lot of receivers out, but he should get Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee back this week. TE Antonio Gates says it's 50-50 whether he'll play, but he's barely able to walk so I doubt it. Broncos O line got healthy last week, and it showed. Chargers special teams are pretty bad, and I bet the Broncos get at least one kick return for 7. That might be the difference in what should be a high scoring game.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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