How the Broncos Win the West
I believe.
I believe that the Broncos can win the AFC West. I believe that Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno are going to kick the battered and bruised San Diego Chargers defense squarely in the teeth and I'm of the opinion that Philip Rivers will get a face full of Joe Mays.
Some might call my opinion optimistic. Others will ask me how much extra sweetener I am putting in my Kool Aid.
You can say what you want, but I am not afraid of the current position the Broncos hold in the AFC West standings. If they play like they did against Kansas City, I don't see any reason why they can't win the division.
Before you throw up your hands and say "but KB, that's impossible"... just let me show you how the Broncos can win the AFC West.
It doesn't take a PhD in Mathematics to figure out that the Broncos are in a hole. In fact, the Broncos have only 7 weeks to surpass 3 teams in the division standings. Furthermore, they are 1 game behind the Chargers, 2 games behind the Chiefs, and 2 games behind the Raiders.
Here are the remaining games on the Broncos' schedule:
@ San Diego Chargers
Monday, November 22 20106:30 PM MST
St. Louis Rams
Sunday, November 28 20102:15 PM MST
@ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 05 201011:00 AM MST
@ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, December 12 20102:15 PM MST
@ Oakland Raiders
Sunday, December 19 20102:15 PM MST
Houston Texans
Sunday, December 26 20102:05 PM MST
San Diego Chargers
Sunday, January 02 20112:15 PM MST
You'll notice that of the 7 games, 4 of those are against division opponents. This means that the Broncos can put a major dent in the AFC West standings before the year is out.
How to pass the Chargers
This one isn't very complex. With a Broncos win on Monday night, they are tied in the division standings with the Chargers but will have the head-to-head tiebreaker. Another win against the Chargers in week 17 and we are theoretically a game up on the Bolts (barring the results of the other 5 games on the schedule).
In any case, the Broncos still control their own destiny against the Chargers. With that said, it is very important that we beat the Chargers because I don't see many losses upcoming. They have the Colts, Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Bengals and Broncos to end the year. Without the Broncos two victories, it could become an uphill battle in a hurry.
How to pass the Chiefs
Against the Chiefs, the Broncos are in a less favorable but still manageable position. The Broncos have already beaten destroyed the Chiefs, this season. If they can win again at Arrowhead Stadium in week 13, they are ensuring at least a 4-6 record for the Broncos and a 5-5 record for the Chiefs (barring the results of the other games, of course).
That means that the Broncos will just need to pick up one more game on the Chiefs and, all of a sudden, we are ahead of the Chiefs because of our head-to-head tiebreaker. I could see a couple more losses for the Chiefs. They have the Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, Rams, Titans and Raiders to finish off the season.
Now that we're ahead of the Chiefs and Chargers, we've only got one more team in our sights.
How to pass the Raiders
The Raiders have already beaten us, this season. It was in our own back yard and it was also an epic beat down. Fortunately for us, we will see them again. With a win in Oakland, the Broncos will essentially be one game back and the head-to-head tiebreaker will be a wash since the season series will go to 1-1. Next on the list of tiebreakers would be division record. With the Raiders at a 3-0 division record, currently, the Broncos are at a disadvantage. Denver has a 1-1 record, right now.
However, if the Broncos can beat the Raiders, the Raiders go to a 3-1 division record and the Broncos rise to 2-1. Since we'll need the other division games, anyways, the Broncos will need to be 5-1 to have a chance at winning a tie against the Raiders.
The Broncos best option would be to win outright, unless the Chiefs and Chargers can help us out, a bit. This means that they'll need to beat the Raiders in Oakland and then pick up 2 extra games on the Raiders. That is very possible considering they play the Steelers, Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Colts before the season is over. I could see numerous losses mounting for the Raiders.
Non-Divisional Games
There are 3 more games for the Broncos that we haven't discussed. They are all outside of the division and only one of them is an AFC conference game (Houston). These games are the bonus games, all of which appear winnable. The Rams, Cardinals and Texans are all beatable, especially if the Broncos play like they did against the Chiefs last week.
Final Thoughts
The Broncos are far from out of the race. The rest of the division has a handful of games that could result in losses. Most important to the Broncos playoff hopes are the 4 remaining divisional games. They must take advantage of those games and get 4 victories. Those victories will go a long way in helping the Broncos climb the standings. Although there are a guaranteed total of 3 losses that will be tallied between the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders because they must play each other one more time before the end of the season.
It could be a wild winter, Broncos fans. Of course, all of this speculation will depend on whether the Broncos play like the Broncos of a month ago or the Broncos from last week. Hopefully, it's the latter.
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Keep those pumping those good vibrations into the Universe KB!
Crazier things have happened before, that’s for sure.
10-6 until we aren’t! Go Broncos!
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination."
- Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by c_style on Nov 19, 2010 10:07 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
For the rest of the season I'm happy enough if we stay competitive in our remaining games and see progress from our rookies.
I think a playoff berth is highly unlikey. Yes we can win the division – but are we likely to do so? Well probably not. Winning all 5 division games (3 on the road) is extremely difficult. Excessive kool-aid means that disapointments are less easily beared when they occur.
Having said all that – there is a strong argument that football is won in the trenches and right now I love where our offensive line is at. So who knows….)
What would Blackie Lawless do?
by British Bronco on Nov 19, 2010 10:14 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
YES
Good article, Troy. We can win these games. We have proven that we are capable, now we just need to execute. One game at a time. The season starts Monday with San Diego, and it starts over the next weekend. Gotta beat the Chargers!!
1-0.
follow me on Twitter: @Sayre_Bedinger
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XBox LIVE gamer tag as suggested by XBox: SoppiestKibbles
yep....that's for real
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 19, 2010 10:17 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Great article
Has there ever been a greater statistical anomaly than the Chargers defense. The number 2 defense in the league yardage wise but there is good reason for this. For one, special teams is so atrocious than teams don’t need to rack up a lot of yards scoring points.
The other issue is they have had outsanding defensive statistical performances against the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Chiefs, yet lost 2 of those games.
I think we can run and throw on this team, final score will be in the 30’s for both teams.
Being a Broncos fan is more than wins and losses. Its loving something unconditionally. It's loving something so much that at times you heart aches, but in the end it's worth it because the feelings of joy cannot be matched.
by RockyMountainThunder on Nov 19, 2010 10:38 AM MST reply actions
If we lose the Chargers
We are out of the race. This game is a must win for us. 3-7 with a “best case” of 9-7 isn’t going to cut it.
NFL Sunday Ticket: $300
#88 Thomas Jersey: $120
Big Screen TV: $1200
Watching Your Broncos Lose Every Week: Devestating.
Not in this division.
Sure, the Broncos would need help, but mathematically, the way these teams are playing and their records, they’re not done. One thing is very likely though: if you don’t finish first in this division, there probably isn’t a wild-card possibility.
What’s more important is to win this game to show that this team has the right players, the right staff, and the right strategy. Now that they’re almost 100% healthy on both sides of the ball, we can evaluate this team with no uncertainty.
by jtomasik on Nov 19, 2010 11:18 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting situation we're in.
A new (relatively speaking) coach, an essentially “new team” in some aspects, as there are those who are returning after a long layoff, a beat down by the Raiders that left us all wondering if the Broncos were a lot worse than their record indicated, then a beat down of the division leaders that has us scratching our heads whether it was the return of the intended O-line and some new faces and positions on the defense that gave us the win, or the leader of the division isn’t all that good, or a combination of both.
I do think the Dolts’ stats are inflated and don’t expose that they’re really not as good as everyone thinks.
I think McDaniels might’ve learned something about using a scripted approach, as well as found a few good players who he didn’t know he had in the linebacking corp.
I think that Moreno might’ve found an extra step, partially due to the O-line.
I think the Broncos can win at San Diego. One week at a time, boys…one week at a time.
SD vs Denver 2010 Predictions
1. Moreno breaks off a long TD
2. Royal breaks off a long TD
3. Orton goes for over 400 yards
4. Cox gets his 2nd INT
5. Haggan realizes he can do what he did last week every week and puts up 1.5 sacks.
6. Mays gets a penalty and nobody gets mad at him.
7. Gaffney pretends he’s washing his face 5 times.
8. Moreno goes for over 100 again.
9. Thomas gets his 2nd TD
10. Gruden compliments both Rivers and Orton. Alot.
11. Royal gets a kick return TD
12. Broncos win
Someone remind me to check these after the game to see how I do.
NFL Sunday Ticket: $300
#88 Thomas Jersey: $120
Big Screen TV: $1200
Watching Your Broncos Lose Every Week: Devestating.
Nice work again
Love the little star links, nice touch.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I have a wait and see attitude about this one...
I just don’t know how to feel. That game last week… it was like a completely different team than we’ve seen all season. I just hope that same team shows up on Monday, because if they don’t, we won’t win this game on the road. It must be another complete game in all 3 phases. Pretty much zero room for error.
All I want to see from the team at this point is continued progress and consistency.
It’s too much to hope for playoffs at this point and will only result in disappointment. Just play some good ball that’s not painful to watch and I’ll be happy.
Some people got nothing to be angry about so they're angry about nothing. - Doug Stanhope
I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever in religion, in philosophy, in politics, or in anything else where I was capable of thinking for myself. - Thomas Jefferson
Destroy the Chargers
Nothing would be sweeter than to watch the total destruction of the fumbling Chargers on their own field in San Diego. Go Broncos!
Lets DO IT!!!
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison
"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble
Good post
Just took a quick look. Lets say the Broncos win out which is there best chance to make the playoffs (this means each other AFC West team has one extra loss), then…
The Broncos win the AFC West of any of the following happen…
1.) SD wins out
2.) Each AFC West team goes 1-1 in their remaining AFC West schedule
3.) KC wins out their remaining AFC West schedule but loses one other game
4.) Oak wins out their remaining AFC West schedule but loses one other game
The Broncos do not make the playoffs, even if they win out if…
1.) KC wins the rest of their games (baring the DEN game)
2.) Oak wins the rest of their games (baring the DEN game)
Goals for the remainder of the season…
1.) Broncos need to win out.
2.) Broncos fans should root for SD against KC and OAK
3.) Broncos fans should root against KC and OAK in all cases
by NYCBroncoFan on Nov 19, 2010 12:15 PM MST reply actions 4 recs
These Games
which remain are all winnable and finally we are healthy. To win the AFC West in a supposed rebuilding year would be HUGE. The next step in our journey begins Monday at San Diego. Beat the Dolts (incidentally I’ve been blocked from their blog but who cares)
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Nov 19, 2010 12:55 PM MST reply actions
"Mathematically"
I could shoot a fly off a fencepost at 50 yards with a good rifle.
“Realistically”, probably not so much.
I’d love for the Broncos to somehow win the division and I am not saying they can’t or won’t. If they continue to play as well as they did last week it is a distinct possibility.
But realistically, let’s just beat San Diego Monday night. Then we’ll talk.
Tebow: Winning hearts and minds, five yards at a time.
One game at a time
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Weirder things have happened.
And who wouldn’t love to look back on our division win and say Elway’s speech was the moment that turned everything around. This season could easily turn legendary if just a few select things go our way. The way I see it, if we do our part, the odds are in our favor.
None of us go out and play for stats. You just do whatever you can to help the team out. -- Eddie Royal
by Poster_Formerly_Known_As_Royal_Fan on Nov 19, 2010 1:28 PM MST reply actions
Wouldn't that be something?
What if the Broncos start playing lights out and end up in the playoffs (and anything can happen in the playoffs) 10+ years from now, when the broncos are a yearly top contender :) we can look back at ‘The Speech’ from John Elway as the turning point…
by Broncos808 on Nov 19, 2010 9:21 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks KB
And I love the optimism man.
I swear I must have some disease that barely ever lets me be pessimistic about the Broncos.
That's quite a long handle there, G Funk. - That's what she said.
First (and only, in our lifetimes) team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! ( =
by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Nov 19, 2010 1:35 PM MST reply actions
I agree there is a chance
And obviously it isn’t likely.
We need to win vs SD – probably both games.
We need to beat Oakland.
On the whole – I say we have MAYBE 1 loss to spare – and it can’t come vs SD or Oakland. Losing to KC would hurt too – but we might overcome it if we win every other game.
What could happen vs what probably will
With realistic optimism, I see 2 losses for Denver. Earlier in the year, I thought 8-8 might win it – but the Raiders and Chargers look like they’re getting hot. Unless we beat them both in the 3 games left vs them… I don’t see them winning less than 8. We
Losing the optimism – Most likely, we hit about 6 wins. All remaining games are winnable – but we haven’t shown consistency yet. And that is the key – not what is our ceiling (which is fairly high) but how often do we perform poorly. To win almost every game (when we have shown we can lose any game) is a tough order. I’d love to see us finish out with only 1 more loss – but that is highly unlikely. We can expect 1 of the other 3 in our division to collapse – but not all 3. If we lose Monday, it’s officially “wait until next year” time.
What if the Chiefs and raiders lose on sunday, and we lose monday, were still only 2 games back, and we know that lead is not safe till wk 17
by Broncos808 on Nov 19, 2010 9:25 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I will be drinking from my lucky Broncos glass from Arby's tonight.
lol. I figure the team needs all the help they can get.
Bronco Champions are being forged as we speak.
Great Post
I’m also thinking we have a chance, but again let’s take this thing one game at a time. The big IF in all of this, is that we win out the division. If we loose 1 in the division, it’s not going to be good. I also like all the haters who i have not seen on the boards the last week, it’s been nice not having to deal with them and wanting heads to roll.
Does anyone know what the Dolt’s opponents starting field position is? That would tell us alot on their defense. If there opponents are starting near the 40 or 50 yard lines all the time of course their defesne is going to look good.
Not likely...
But I’m an eternal optimist too. Really, I’m curious to see how KC reacts to their destruction last week. If they start to sink as a result of those back to back losses, they could struggle despite their easy remaining schedule. Oakland I’m not worried about at all. They have too many tough teams still to come on their schedule… if they manage to win the division with the opponents they have left, they will certainly have earned it. SD is the one who constantly worries me. They have a late run pretty much every year, and their offensive / defensive yard numbers are very impressive.
Current records aside, the path to winning the west still has to go through san diego, and Monday’s game will go a long way in determining whether or not we have a shot at finishing ahead of them this year. If we can beat San Diego, all bets are off.
I liked this post
I agree with KK, Max and many of the others. For me the bottom line is win this game! And I honestly believe we can do exactly that. Let me tell ya, I would love to go into work on Tuesday wearing my Bronco orange hat and hear silence (some of you out there probably know I live in SD). We can worry about next week starting Tuesday. I would love to see us in the post season and if Denver stays healthy, gets a few breaks, and help from the other AFC teams (by them losing) I can picture it.
We bought this teritory with our body and souls then we watered it with our tears.
Thanks Kentucky!
With a healthy team and a little luck, I believe as well!
Take my advice, I never use it.
problem is we play 4 of 6 road games. while SD plays 4 of 6 home games.
Always remember Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David.
-- Shug Jordan
by Orange and Blue on Nov 19, 2010 4:57 PM MST reply actions
They play TOUGH and with ATTITUDE the rest of the season I will be stoked....THEY ALL NEED TO BRING MAYS MENTALITY!!!
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Come to think of it
We did win 6 in a row a long long time ago.
We bought this teritory with our body and souls then we watered it with our tears.
THe part that worries me
is that we split all the division games last year. AND we lost al the home games, and coincidentally all the second games. That shows me that when McD wins, he doesn’t adjust well, and allows the other team to adjust in the following game. Of course, that correlation is very suspect, but it worries me nonetheless.
The thing I’m optimistic about is that Ryan Harris is back, baby. Think about it… he hasn’t been healthy since game 6 of 2009 right? We were undefeated with a healthy RyHair (How’s that for a nickname?). THe game he comes back we thoroughly dismantle the chiefs.
Here’s to 6-0 going to 2-8 becoming 2-6 going to 8-0!
-Harvey J. Neptune
Cutler is more than a tool...hes a frickin HOME DEPOT!
-Boydy
Gotta start that numbers progression
by winning on Monday.
We bought this teritory with our body and souls then we watered it with our tears.
Good post
I totally agree we still got a shot and I think McD and the guys know that and will play hard the rest of the season
GO BRONCOS Orange Crush 4ever

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