Brad's NFL Picks - Week 9 - 2010

Brad's Picks was 7-6 last week.

Here's the good, bad and ugly from that: (as always, the home team is designated by City or State, Visiting team by the team name).

     the good:

Detroit 37, Redskins 25. Mike Shanahan took a healthy Donovan McNabb out in favor of Rex Grossman in the last two minutes, with the score 30-25. Grossman promptly fumbled the ball and Ndamukong Suh picked it up and ran it 17 yards for a TD.

Kansas City 13, Bills 10. OT. Both teams missed a FG in OT, then the Chiefs made one. As time expired in OT. A moral victory for the Bills, but they're still 0-7.

St. Louis 20, Panthers 10. Rookie QB Sam Bradford was 25-32-191 with 2 TD's and 0 INT's. And second year HC Steve Spagnuolo's defense forced 4 turnovers. But I look at the stats (didn't see the game) and have to wonder why just a ten point differential? Rams didn't turn it over at all while Panthers' QB Matt Moore had about the same numbers as Bradford except for his three picks. A hand for the Panthers' defense?

Dolphins 22, Cincinnati 14. Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter was 5-5 in FG attempts. Chad Henne led the Fins on a 96 yard TD drive in the 4th to close out the scoring.

San Diego 33, Titans 25. I read that Norv Turner got a bit irate in the locker room at the half when the Chargers were down 19-14.

Bucs 38, Arizona 35. Bucs came from behind (31-35) in the 4th quarter for the 4th time this year.

New Orleans 20, Steelers 10. - It was Steelers 3, Saints 6 after 3 quarters. Then Drew Brees threw a 16 yard TD to Marques Colston. Then Steeler Rashard Mendenhall scored on a 38 yard TD. Then Brees threw an 8 yard TD to Lance Moore.

     The rest after the jump:

     the bad:

San Francisco 24, Broncos 16. This was a fun game to watch if you had no stake in it. Plenty of action and a long bomb by each team.

     the ugly:

Jaguars 35, Dallas 17. Did the Boys mail it in or what? And don't blame this on Jon Kitna. He did throw 4 INT's but 3 of them hit the hands of his receivers. Dallas fans are starting to wear bags over their heads.

Packers 9, New York Jets 0. First shutout of the season. Epic defensive battle. Really, it was fun to watch. The battle weary Pack out did the rested Jets. Way to go, Packers. Hats off.

New England 28, Vikings 18. It was 7-7 at the half, and 21-18 with two minutes to go.

Oakland 33, Seahawks 3. Raiders have been winning big the last couple weeks.

Undeap 30, Texans 17. Both teams were able to run the ball, but pressure on Matt Schaub was intense and caused an INT that was returned for a TD.

     It was AFC 3, NFC 3 last week. On the season, it's AFC 20, NFC 15. Home teams won 9, Visitors just 4. On the season it's H 68, V 49. Brad's Picks is 61-56 on the season.

     Off last week with a bye were the Giants (5-2); Eagles (4-3); Bears (5-2); Falcons (5-2); Ravens (5-2); and the Browns (2-5). Off this week are Denver (2-6); Washington (4-4); St. Louis (4-4); Jacksonville (4-4); San Francisco (2-6); and Tennessee (5-3).

     I just read somewhere that teams off a bye win 53% of their games the next week. That's probably not real relevant statistically.

     this week: the 11:00 MST games:

Chicago (4-3) at Toronto (0-7) - This is actually the Bears vs the Bills, who are playing in Toronto for reasons known only to the bean counters. Bears were off with a bye last week. Bears have lost 3 of their last 4. Bills had a very long game in Kansas City last week. Jay Cutler leads the league with 27 sacks, but the Bills only have 11 sacks as a team. But 7 of those have come in the last 3 games. Maybe the Bills' new defense is catching on. Ryan Fitzgerald only has 11 sacks. I think I'm looking for a reason to pick the Bills here.

New York Jets (5-2) at Detroit (2-5) - Lions rookie DT Ndamukong Suh has 6.5 sacks, 4.5 in the last 4 games. As a contrast, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers and Albert Haynesworth have 5 sacks between them. This a tough call. Lions QB Matt Stafford is looking good for a sophomore, but he's only played a couple games this year, and Rex Ryan's defenses can be tough to figure. But the Jets QB Mark Sanchez is also a sophomore. Lions put up 37 points last week, but the Redskins have a terrible defense. I dunno about this one. I'd like to take the Lions, partly because the Jets really got pushed around last week, and have to be tired. But the Jets are the better team and you have to figure they can rebound.

Miami (4-3) at Baltimore (5-2) - Baltimore is off a bye. Dolphins are now 4-0 on the road, but I think that streak stops here. This is the second road game in a row for the Fins, and I don't think Ray Lewis will let the Ravens be rusty after the week off.

San Diego (3-5) at Houston (4-3) - Chargers great TE Antonio Gates tore his plantar fascia on his right foot. He was already limping with toe and ankle injuries on his left the last couple weeks. Chargers are really scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to receivers. Malcolm Floyd will miss another game, as will Legedu Naanee. Vincent Jackson isn't ready to play after ending his holdout. Texans are a pretty bad defensive team - they've allowed 95 points the last three games (Giants, Chiefs, Undee). Texans lost at Undee last week 30-17, and the Colts are much like the Chargers right now - very good QB's with lots of receivers out. I think the game will be a shootout - Texans RB Arian Foster leads the league with a 5.6 per carry average. Andre Johnson was limping after last week's game, but he's a gamer and should play. Chargers lead the league in offense and defense. Texans are 7th on offense and last on defense. So why take the Texans? Chargers have managed to lose 5 games because of poor ball handling and terrible special teams. And the game is in Houston.

Tampa Bay (5-2) at Atlanta (5-2) - Division game. Atlanta is off a bye. Matt Ryan is 15-1 in the Georgia Dome.

New Orleans (5-3) at Carolina (1-6) - Division game. Saints are a much better team.

New England (6-1) at Cleveland (2-5) - Cleveland is off a bye. Seneca Wallace is close to being back at QB but it looks like Colt McCoy will get the start again - Jake Delhomme is still not practicing.. McCoy is doing OK for a rookie - he has a QB rating of 76 in two games, which is about 28 points better than Delhomme's rating (but 10 points less than Wallace' rating). Browns have had a bit of success this year with wins over the Bengals and Saints, and 4 of their losses were by a total of 22 points. Tough running by Peyton Hillis has helped. But the Patriots continue to amaze - best record in the NFL, even though they are 28th on defense and 19th on offense.

Arizona (3-4) at Minnesota (2-5) - Vikings traded for Randy Moss a month ago, giving up a couple draft choices. But they waived him this last week. I'm not sure why, although I heard a rumor that he referred to HC Brad Childress as "Old Baldy". Percy Harvin was held out of practice early in the week with an ankle injury but practiced on Friday. Vikings have a lot of internal dissension and there is talk that Old Baldy's job is in serious danger (owner Zygi Wolf was furious that OB had waived Moss without consulting him). But Arizona doesn't have a quarterback and the Vikings are a much better team.

     the 2:05 MST game:

New York Giants (5-2) at Seattle (4-3) - Giants are off a bye, and they have not been real good after their bye week. Seattle is very good at home, but I'll take the Giants because Seattle's starting LT Russell Okung won't play and the Giants defense can be fierce - they're 2nd in the league right now.

     the 2:15 MST games:

Kansas City (5-2) at Oakland (4-4) - Division game. Chiefs speedy WR Dexter McCluster is not practicing because of an ankle injury. But Raiders super CB Nnamdi Asomugwha also has a bum ankle. Neither is expected to play, so maybe it balances out. This a tough call. Should be a fun game to watch, like division games usually are. Chiefs needed OT to beat the winless Bills last week at Arrowhead so I'll pick the Raiders at home.

Undiana (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-3) - Philadelphia is off a bye. Eagles should get DeSean Jackson back after missing some time with a concussion. Colts should get Austin Collie (thumb surgery) back. Two good teams here. I'll take the Eagles because they are at home; the Colts played on Monday night; Colts' RB's Joseph Addai and Mike Hart won't play, leaving the running to 2nd year RB Donald Brown; but mostly because the Eagles are 11-0 off a bye.

     the SNL game:

Dallas (1-5) at Green Bay (5-3) - Packers won a hard fought battle in New York last week but you'd have to indulge in a lot of sophistry to come up with a reason to believe the Cowboys will start winning this week at Lambeau.

     the MNF game:

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Cincinnati (2-5) - Division game. Bengals swept the Steelers last year. Steelers are the better team this year and will get a little payback in prime time.