Third Down...and Out

Glad to see them posted. I’ve honestly come to expect Orton to fail in those situations. What makes it worse is that its not that it ends in a close play or a 4th down conversion, it usually ends in a turnover.

I just hope Tebow will give us hope in the clutch, cuz Orton provides none for me. I’ve been with you all year on Orton’s lack of clutch. The one close game we won because of Orton was in tennesse, where the drive was only succesful on a PI call, where we preceeded to have karma bite us right back and lose to the Jets on the same thing

If the reviews are even half accurate (Elway raved about him, Dilfer called him the best QB prosepect) I don’t see how we could pass on him if he dropped. However I don’t see Carolina pasing, and if they did then I would think they would just trade their pick.

Now if Tebow was to start and he did poorly over the 4 games I don’t think that would really be enough time to evaluate him and decide that a 1st round QB should be a need.

Luck will not make it past #1 overall and that won’t be Denver.

I’d be shocked if Tebow doesn’t see a few series in the next few weeks, especially vs Houston and the Fing Dolts.

I think the new coach will try to win vs the Cardinals so he’ll play Orton. Arizona sucks so we might ambush them because our guys are going to be playing for future jobs. The Cards have already mailed it in if you’ve seen them play recently. They also want a Top 5 pick so they can draft their QB of the future.

the same numbers for Carolina, Buffalo, Arizona, Cincinnati or Detroit?

I have always felt and known Orton would never do us any good when the clutch play was needed.
He has never been charged up enough or taken charge of this team for my liking. I hope we move past this experiment and find out if Tebow is this man. If not lets get a QB to lead this team.
Shame, we might just have that guy right now. What the hell?? I don’t care about playing Orton anymore this year and I don’t buy it that the next 4 worthless games are going to improve his value. He is what he is and I am sure every team that wants a QB knows it.
Lets not waste the last 4 games of the year. Lets use it to see if we are on the clock for another QB.

Given, Kyle Orton has been sacked too many times. Given, the Denver Broncos offense has been pathetic at converting third downs. Agreed, there is a corrolation and probable cause link between sacks and failure to convert third downs. Not revealed, the distance for each third down attempt or success at different distances. Also not reveiled, the presence or absence of blitzing defender on such sacks or if such blitzer was picked up or not. You do make the assumption that sacks are intrinsicly the fault of the quarterback whereas the general assumption among fans it that sacks are the fault of those assigned to block.

Try this for a more rounded conclusion … we have deep problems with our team that are not limited to defense. Last in the league in rushing until last week probably plays a larger role than the actual sacks. Rookies at center and gaurd, center and tackle, center gaurd and tackle, and then recovering tackles with rookies in the middle likely are a huge contributor as well. Blocking from the TE and RB have not always been steller. Twice I can recall sacks because the Mike was coming fast and Gronk could not cross infront of Orton in time to pick up – that is a more of a formation problem. The problems are much deeper than calling out Orton.

I’m glad you did the research. We’ve all seen this, and known it. But it is just painful to see it proven in black and white. Ugh. I’m a fan of the guy’s work ethic… but I remember me some Elway, and I MISS feeling comfortable when the game is on the line. It’s the feeling Colts fans must have had until a month ago. It sucks to have that gift, and then not. And it’s so rare.

I really have hope that Tebow can do that for us. I think he will throw interceptions and make sloppy throws. But I believe he will be clutch. I hope he gets a shot, if not now, then next season.

these final four games, at least we’ll know that a Top 5 quarterback is where this team will need to go in next years draft.

Any stat that is important is going to look bad. When you start to draw conclusions, things can get tautological. You’re looking at stats, and behind those stats are correlations. You’re drawing up one scenario for cause and effect, which is relatively simple, focusing largely on one player. Our O-Line has been porous, recovering from injury. Our running backs have been injured. Our tight ends are either regressing or unproven. There are so many things that have come into play to blow up drives. It’s true that Orton often looks like a deer in the headlights when there’s penetration in the backfield, but he hasn’t been killing drives by himself. Orton is not the only reason, and maybe not the primary reason, why we are 3-9.

I am not exactly shocked to see what you have there stat wise. It’s telling for sure. But, all that being said, and I respect your opinion a great deal, I think perhaps you may read a bit too much into stats. To put the blame on Orton in all the cases you mention is wrong I believe. He may have problems in the clutch but by the time it gets to that point so many other aspects of the game have gone into the toilet it’s ridiculous. I think if the rest of the team was up to par level Orton would be just fine. Sure, we’re gonna trade him and most likely Mr. Tebow will be the future. But I think Orton will go on to have a decent career. How will you feel if he goes to Arizona and makes it into the NFC Championship game? That would make us all a bunch of chumps. I liked Jake Plummer. He was ran out of town more or less, so we could play our qb of the future Cutler. Lets fix the problems we have that are glaring at us. The DLine! I think our offense will be juat fine next season. If we can field a team that has a decent DLIne we stand a great chance next season to be the winning team we used to be. I’m just sayin’. Great post Tim
Go Denver

Fun discussing this with you here and the other thread. It has been a frustrating season. It is not over yet so more frustration is likely to follow. Starting Sunday everything is different – for better or worse. Our hope right now is in the front office, do they find the right combination of managers and coaches. Once we have that part of the picture solved I think the rest will work itself out.

Kyle Orton in the Rams game was disturbing, there is no way Tebow would mope with his head down during a game. Players feed off that which is why I wish Josh would of yanked him and let Tim show him how to carry himself when things don’t go your way. When Orton was playing well the team played well, I now understand why we drafted a QB in the first round I just hope it’s the right one.

This was my impressions of Orton all along, at least since training camp. I was always hoping for Orton to suceed, but there are some things that are needed physically to be a good/great QB. It just is what it is, and Orton doesn’t posses it.

And it is just unreasonable and irrational to believe any football team will play flawless football (all 11 players) in unison, for more than 70% of the game or even season.

I think what has always been suggested and I know Kaptain Kirk puts forth the arguement that it is a team effort which I do believe, but to expect flawless play is I believe to high of an expectation, for any team and for Orton, unless those expectations are meet regularly, then he is an average QB at best.

Zero or very little escape ability almost 50% of last week TD passes were the direct result of a play making QB escaping pressure before throwing Orton cut you out of 50% of your TD opportunities.

Not to mention it is not exciting God I miss Elway and want Tebow to get a shot

Luck is just this years Locker

Good stuff. Well researched.

It’s TOTALLY cliche, but I love love love the phrase “pass the eye (you can say ‘smell’ too) test”

I haven’t missed a Broncos game in more than 25 years (I’m 33 and count my first real year of fandom as when I was 7 – 1984 – yes I was at the botched divisional playoff game vs the Steelers that year) and have had season tix most of my life. I’ve calculated that I’ve seen well over 1000 gamesof NFL football in my life (at least 3 games per week -sometimes 4 – for 20 weeks a year – for 25 + years) and I can say with 100% certainty that Kyle Orton doesn’t pass the eye test for me.

He’s a guy who needs a lot to go right to have a great play. He’s incredible in play action situations because he has an extra tick or 2 to make up his mind, not to mention that he’s rarely under pressure in those situations. You can make a living like that. But only for a while. Under pressure or when his first read is not there, he tends to throw into the ground or get rid of the ball or take a sack. He’s a QB who’s best in a timing offense. Unfortunately on 3rd downs, timing offenses tend to come up short because there’s blitz disruption or a zone dog or something abit more exotic going down. When Denver really needs yards, we usually run a play where Orton’s reads are up the sideline and throws of the low percentage variety.

I HATE that it seems like KO drops back and has limited choices/possibilities. Its as though they’ve coached him out of making decisions or ‘making a play’ or ‘creating’. There were a few games there where Kyle was moving around in and outside of the pocket and that’s when I felt like the offense was at its best.

I enjoy football much more when my QB can create. I am NOT neccessarily talking about escape-ability, look at Phil Rivers – dude can’t run for sh**, but he creates just fine, Brady too, but if my QB can create, then I feel like the offense has a chance on every play. With KO at the helm, Denver has a guy I like and a player that the other players respect, but they DO NOT have a guy that can make something out of nothing or create a play with things crashing around him or make something happen under bigtime pressure.

Frankly, I’m SURPRISED when Denver makes a big play on 3rd down, especially in the 2nd half when the game is close.

I know I said the same thing that Tim said, but with ZERO facts, but that’s my point – that I don’t need stats to tell me that Kyle Orton is an average QB on an average offense with a creative playcaller. The passing offense was put together by a real technician who knows what to do and when to do it (McD). McD did his best to call the the game the best he could, but he couldn’t win the game from the sidelines or in practice with preparation. The players must do that on the field – and they couldn’t- just like Shanny couldn’t win games from the sidelines with Griese at the helm. You can’t hide a lack of talent behind clever X’s and O’s for more than 4 or 5 games. Eventually the NFL will catch you and eat you alive if you don’t have real talent on your Offense or Defense.

Amazing stats and effort.
Orton in the “clutch” is really eye opening, but anyone who watched last weeks game probably saw what they needed to see.

I don’t believe playing Orton is for trade value, or at least it shouldnt be. He is only going to do damage to his trade value if he keeps playing like he did last week. At this point as well, he is what he is, and noone is going to offer a full round higher because of his play in 4 weeks. If I had to guess, I would say that someone may offer a third for him (I have a tough time thinking he will go for a second). It may even be worth it to keep him around a year anyways and just take the compensatory pick.

Someone in the front office, if there is anyone even in there using half of their brain….. they should tell the team to just play Tebow.
I have mentioned before that Tebow will have no impact on who is hired in the offseason, that’s just not how things work.
With that being said, he is going to be on the team for awhile so you might as well get him out there a bit. Plus it will make the games a bit more interesting to watch as a fan.

In the draft I really have my heart set on one of those two interior lineman (Fairley or Dareus), I really want to see some teeth added to the middle of our defense. Especially with the impact that Suh has had for the Lions.

There will be plenty of stories to watch in the coming weeks, hopefully they are far more positive than the recent Broncos stories

Really great article Tim. I’m glad you did that so we can all confirm the truth about Orton. There is a tiny bit of wiggle room for play calling, oline, etc, but Orton isn’t an answer. I was wrong at the beginning of this season to get my hopes up so much on pretty numbers. My review at the end of last season was correct…Orton’s ceiling is too low and he’s already about at it if not there….

Lack of mobility, lack of poise under pressure…two biggest knocks on the guy.

He locks on one and ultimately throws to that guy or takes a sack. Last year he did a better job of reading through a couple of checks then would either make a playor throw it away. This year he either is cockier or was told to make plays rather than waste a play. I have noticed the difference and haven’t heard anyoneon here or elsewhere say anything bout it. I think alot of Kyle’s troubles were injured OLine, injured RBs and playcalling by McD…

This one was not. There was one factor you seemed to have forgotten . . . or ignored: Down & distance. The Broncos had far more 2nd- and 3rd-and-longs than the average in the league. Could Tebow have done better on those third downs? To say he could would be to say he is better than Peyton Manning because stats were produced to compare Orton against Manning, and several other top QBs, under similar 3rd down situations, and the others had the same problems as did Orton.

You have Orton failing, then, over the same problems others are having . . . top quarterbacks. Now that the Broncos apparently are manufacturing a running game, and the new coach has implied the offense will be more balanced, Orton should find himself in improved situations on 3rd downs. Let’s see how he does not.

All I’m asking is for you to be fair to him, not to furtively root for Tebow’s takeover.
-

Where is the comparison to other teams/quarterbacks or at least league average? These numbers are useless in a vacuum.

Why don’t you say the offense did poorly in these situations and not single out one player? You mentioned Orton 21 times and the offense in general just once.

No mention of distances either, this makes a big difference.

We all know you’re biased on this issue from your previous posts but you kill your credibility when you lay it on so thick. You would have been better off stating your findings then making done your “indictment on Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow is our Savior” point once in a conclusion paragraph rather than stating it 21 times throughout the post.

It really shows where Denver has lost its magic. I’m wondering if its not the wide receivers. Orton is definately better in play action but when he is in the shotgun and the defense doesn’t quite have to worry about the run Orton is a lot more ineffective. I’m thinking the adjustment Kansas City made was that they ignored the play action and played as though Denver was going to throw. Could it be that Denver’s receivers are too poor at getting open when there is no play action?

that i got to be rec #10

This ship sailed for me a long time ago. All these stats did was prove everything I already thought. There have been a few others that have been adamant as well, namely Boydy and Palehorse78.

I’m glad “we” all see this now, I just wish the front office would get the freaking memo.

people are gonna think Orton will somehow morph into some other quarterback now that McD is gone. Hello – it’s the same guy.

If you want to continue setting our team back further and further by the second, by all means, continue playing Orton.

Besides Lloyd who else has had a good season on our team, Um UM, oh probably no one. Teams win and lose together. The O-line has gotten Orton destroyed most of the year, receivers have dropped passes, and yes Orton has missed some throws. The Defense is terrible. All in all we haven’t played well, and that has lost us games. Kyle Orton is not John Elway, but neither is Tim Tebow.

You would know better than to blame the season on Orton. This is ignorant. I’m not saying Orton is the future of the broncos, and im not saying that that he doesn’t deserve some of the blame, but this is just silly, go back and watch the game film.

Anyone is “blaming” Orton, face it football is a team sport but the QB position is the most important position on the team, if you have a good one you can hide alot of other “team” deficiencies if you have a bad one those deficiencies can be exasorbated.

This is more of an indictment of Orton at the QB position and not that he is the sole owner of a bad broncos season.

I consider myself someone who has been an Orton apologist up to this point, but that’s more due to the fact that his overall game has improved and there has been no better option so to me at least, the question of replacing him seemed pointless to consider.

However, when you consider the state this team is in right now, we need to know what we’ve got so we have a better idea of how to position ourselves for the draft.

I think all options should be on the table. We’re not going to the playoffs, we’re not going to win the division. We need to be taking stock and auditing ourselves as an organization from top to bottom these last games.

Very good food for thought, all of this.

Running a predominance of passing plays out of the shotgun can certainly be effective, but I think some of this data points to the fact that it’s effectiveness can be very limited when you don’t have a truly excellent QB running the system. A couple of things really jumped out at me:

When Kyle Orton throws a second down incomplete pass, the Broncos convert just 6.25% of their third downs. Yes, SIX POINT TWO FIVE.

and

The unwillingness to run the ball during close games continues to vex me.

The first stat has been hugely frustrating. It really seems like, if the broncos have good first down, then they’re OK. but if not, and they’ve got a 2nd and long, things spiral downward too quickly. McD won’t call a run on 2nd and long, and that leaves the O in an obvious passing situation. Opposing D’s seem to have figured out how to answer our passing game by pressuring the QB and playing the WR’s agressively. So the 2nd and longs tend to be incompletion’s, leaving us with 3rd and longs (penalties have also played a role in this). There are some QB’s that can complete 3rd and longs when the D knows they’re throwing on a consistent basis – Brees, Manning, Brady, Phillips (it pains me to say it, but we all know it’s true). Orton’s simply not one of them. It seems to me that McD’s system is a little too “Feast of Famine” when things are going well, the offense can just kill the other team. when things are going poorly… well, we all know the answer to that.

The second thought I had was that, if we could run more passing plays from under center, the running game would have more options – opposing defenses would have a harder time guessing if the play was running vs passing, and there would be more different runs that could be used. it’s kinda the opposite of the play-action pass – run some more passing plays from under center so the D knows that you don’t only pass from the shotgun, and they won’t be able to crowd the line too much when you do run. Knowson’s really been developing as a running back now that he’s healthy, and I’d like to give him the opportunity to show he can carry the offense from time to time, wear down Defenses, and help control the pace of the game (something the Bronco’s offense hasn’t done consistently in several years, despite their statistical appearance to the otherwise)

I haven’t had a chance to really digest all the numbers, because of this whole pesky “job” situation. However, it’s clear you put a lot of time and work into this one, Zappa. To me, THIS is the kind of work that makes MHR the place it is. Great work, sir!

   In addition; I believe Orton’s tendency to lock on to one receiver until he feels pressure and then look for the safest way to the ground are what drives these 3rd down numbers. “The Film Don’t Lie” is a popular phrase and if you watch much tape on KO you see this time and again. I believe this is part of the reason why after the 6-0 start teams quickly figured out how to defend KO and Mcdaniels successfully.
    In contrast look at QB’s like Brady, Rothlesberger, Manning, Brees and of course ELWAY, you will see the stark contrast. Each of these guys keeps their head up constantly scanning the field for an opening, even as they’re being contacted. KO on the other hand looks primary and occasionally secondary but as soon as the pocket starts to shift (as it always does in the NFL) instead of shifting within it and continuing to scan you see his head drop and the search for safety begin. His mobility is certainly limiting but other QB’s are equally slow footed but are still able to make the subtle shifts within the pocket to buy time while continuously looking for the open. KO does not appear to have this ability and I don’t think it can be easily developed as it appears to be a more instinctive rather than learned behaviour.

Must be a reason Tebow isn’t playing. Studes said Orton will start. Is it because he’s keeping to the status quo? He’s gonna want to do well coaching in the next few games. If he does then he might get his shot. You all will have to be patient! Watch and see…
I’m just sayin"

Success Rate (SR) – The proportion of plays in which a player was directly involved that would typically be considered successful. Specifically, SR is the percentage of plays resulting in positive Expected Points Added (EPA).
Expected Points Added (EPA) – The difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the start of a play and the EP at the end of they play. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty.

Looking at where Orton ranks in SR% helps to get into the main criticisms that has been raised here: to go on the down and the other 10 players on the team during the play.

Orton’s SR% is 45.3. That is comparable to Bradford, Farve (this year), Freeman, Flacco, Young and Henne. Better than a few full time starting QBs, but still in the bottom third fo the league. The top five in the league (not surprisingly) are Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady and Manning with the best SR% being 53.9%

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

The worst in the league for a QB that has played 12 games is Anderson at 41.9%.

So when Orton throws the ball we are only successful less than half of the time. Success is different in different situations (success on a first down throw is gaining 4 or more yards, while success on ANY 3rd down is converting). Again, how you interpret this data depends largely on how much of the blame on an unsuccessful passing play rests with the QB (which is ironic since rarely does the praise on a successful pass play go to someone other than the QB).

A great quarterback is made NOT when the offense works perfectly, but what the quarterback does when the offense breaks down. This is where you see guys like Manning, Brady….even Big Ben and Rivers make their bones. Being able to create when the “safety” of the offense isn’t there to guide them.

This is why Orton will never lose you games, but won’t win you them when the game is on the line. End of game situations call for quick decision making and decisive judgment. It seems like Kyle has trouble making quick decisions and can only function within the confines of the offense.

I’d call Orton a chameleon. He changes his approach to adapt to the offense he’s in. Problem is he only exists within the context of an offense which, to me, indicates he has trouble with field command. Which is why I’ve drawn the conclusion that Orton is not the answer at QB…

Trouble is finding a quarterback who IS the answer.

That’s a lot of stuff to go through and break down. Kudos on pulling it all together here. Something’s been off with Orton all year, and I don’t know what it is, maybe the league just got enough tape on him or McDaniels offense. Somehow we could put up yards but not when it came to the Red Zone or when the game was on the line. I had a feeling and this article and the stats behind it just confirm that for me.

Tim, I am a big fan of yours, despite our differences on Orton. I have always enjoyed you writing and have emphatically told you so many times. Hell, I accepted your friendship request on this board.

However, this one was really bad because you ignored some very significant factors, not the least of which is down and distance. And unfounded suggestions that Orton was responsible for the down and distance does not make up for that. As I mentioned, if we are going to bring 1st and 2nd down into the discussion, then let’s analyze it. If we are not going to analyze 1st and 2nd down, then let’s stick to 3rd down.

And, looking solely at 3rd down, Orton faced 3rd and 8+ yards far too much. Hoopforia provided above statistics to show that none of the QBs are very good at 3rd-and-long. As I mentioned, I want to see how Orton does under more
normal circumstances and then make a judgment. But a blanket statement that he is not good on 3rd down, as it stands right now, is not fair to Orton. McDaniels said just as much, and so have several others with and outside of the Broncos . . .

Orton has had turnovers with the game on the line – granted.
The thing is, EVERY QB gets turnovers with the game on the line, unless they are spectacularly lucky! When you are no longer able to play it safe, you can’t take the check down, the defense is playing vs the pass (pass rushers coming hard, extra DBs in the game, nobody buys the play action) – these factors lead to turnovers. 6 on the year with the game on the line is bad – but when I look at our team I see a million reasons why this is true besides “Orton sucks”.
-Running game was HORRIBLE, especially toward the beginning of the season when several of the close games went down. Without Moreno… Orton HAD to throw. Anybody who watched Malroney run knew that.
-No reliable “big target”. Our WRs are good – but we can’t rely on a TE or a big WR to make a big target for Orton to have safer throws. This especially hurts on 3rd down. Demayrus Thomas isn’t consistent enough yet, and our TEs were bad. No easy target for short to mid range throws. This means more “take a chance” throws, so more INTs.
-Orton is the King of Play Action. The best in the league at selling the fake. 3rd Down play action isn’t usually very effective, unless it is 3rd and short. It also isn’t effective in hurry-up “clutch” situations, unless we have a lead or lots of time (and Moreno is in the game). The noted shotgun formation also makes play action ineffective.
-Rookies and injuries on the O-line. That equals hurries, sacks, and sack/fumbles. Especially combined with the issues in the running game

your analysis before I leave to go bowling and then to work, Tim, but I do have time for a quibble. We know McDaniels is gone and don’t need oh-so-clever cross outs to remind us. It just looks snide. But the effort you put in on the stats and analysis is truly impressive and I look forward to studying and commenting on it when I get home from work in the morning. I wish I could do it right now. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

Tebow: " Coach! Can I play? C’mon man, we’re 3-9!"

Coach: “Uh, no Tim. Not yet.”

Tebow: “Aww man, but why not?”

Coach: “-———————————————————-”

so was receptive to your statistical treatment as well as impressed by the effort you put into it. But after a closer look, as well as a look at some other stats, I have to agree with those who think you’re cherry picking to support your preconceived notion that Orton fails in clutch situations. A link to some of those stats was supplied by Broncos15, who apparently thought they support your argument. Maybe that’s because he looked only at 2010. I looked at the last four years in an attempt to answer the question, how has Orton developed in his ability to produce under pressure? What I see is an anomalous 2010, not a career pattern of being unable to rise to the occasion. Here are the stats: In 2007 when the score was close Orton’s QB rating was 59.5. When it was close late in the game his rating was 44.9. His overall QB rating that year was 73.9. At this point your impression that his play deteriorates in clutch situations seems justified. But in 2008 the relevant figures were 79.0, 68.2 and 79.6. There was almost no drop-off when the score was close, and a much more modest drop-off when the score was close late in the game. In 2009 the relevant figures were 98.4, 106.8 and 86.8. His play was significantly better when the score was close, and decisively better when it was close late in the game. Against this background of continued improvement his 2010 figures of 85.6, 58.4 and 93.0 are an anomaly that needs to be explained before it can serve as an indictment..

Next I went to nfl.com to compare his 3rd down conversion rate to that of other QBs. Since he didn’t have any passes in 2006 and not enough in 2007 to be listed, I used 2005 as the first year. His conversion rate that year was 25%, better only than J.P. Losman among QBs with enough attempts to qualify. In 2008 his rate improved to 30.3%, in 2009 to 34.2%, and in 2010 so far to 35.7%, a middle of the pack result that I now suspect understates his improvement.

The closest equivalent to that stat in your piece is the 39.7% conversion rate during “regular game action” which you label as “putrid”. But that rate, if it refers to the quarterback’s conversion rate, is actually very good. The league leader is normally around 41% or 42%. I suspect you’re actually referring to the team’s conversion rate, running and passing, in which case you’re in effect arguing that when Moreno gets stuffed on 3rd and short it’s because Orton choked. Now I don’t think statistically attrubuting running game failures to Orton is a deliberate sleight-of-hand, but it is cherry-picking with a vengeance.

It should strike an unbiased observer as odd that Orton, who has improved year by year in his play in pressure situations, who was apparently extremely good in the clutch last year, and who has shown dramatic improvement in his mastery of the offense this year, has suddenly become a choke artist. So odd that perhaps we should question it and try to explain why it seems so rather than assuming it is so. The answer, as plain as a wart on your face and already suggested by several posters, is the lack of a running game. I think the improvement in in blocking and thus in the run game, while real, is not as dramatic as the numbers suggest. Teams are selling out to stop the Broncos’ most dangerous weapon, the passing game, daring the Broncos to beat them on the ground. So far they can’t. The recent relative success of the running game hasn’t helped take pressure off the passing game because it’s largely the result of teams selling out against the pass.

As for the Broncos almost always failing to get a first down after an incomplete pass on 2nd down, that’s because our runners have so often been stuffed on 1st down. If you gain five or six yards on 1st down (as teams regularly do against us) the opponent doesn’t know if you’re going to pass or run on 2nd down, which makes it easier to gain enough yards on a running play to make it 3rd and short, or to pass for enough yards to get a 1st down or make it 3rd and short. It’s actually pretty amazing that Orton has done as well as he has with teams coming after him on every play, and with their secondaries concentrating almost solely on our receivers, letting the front seven deal with the run. With all this is mind I think the appearance of Orton being unable to perform in the clutch is an illusion, or else Peyton Manning, who has similarly been unable to rise above a spate of injuries to the tune of 11 interceptions in the last three games, is also a choke artist and a mediocre quarterback.

Despite the effort you put into your analysis, Tim, which I appreciate, I can’t help thinking that your choice of stats and your interpretation of them was driven by your very strong bias against Orton rather than by a true desire to examine the facts in order to understand, without prejudice, why things are as they are. I think Tebow will become a good quarterback, conceivably a great one, and that with his work ethic he might be able to be effective as soon as next year. But I almost hope we play him now because, just as happened when Simms played, it will shut people up. If he’s as ineffective as I suspect he will be it won’t mean he’s a bust in the making. It’ll mean that there’s a lot more to quarterbacking than most people realize, and that while a talented prospect can become an effective NFL quarterback he can’t do it instantaneously.