This chart is pretty straightforward, though I would like to note that it is in NO WAY an 'official' chart in use by the NFL. This chart does, however, make a good starting off point for evaluating pick-for-pick trade values. I do believe that NFL teams are moving away from this model of pick valuation, especially in the last year, as this model has historically rated mid-round picks far less valuable than the contributions gained from individuals chosen at those spots, though it is closer to being accurate when the production from those spots is averaged. Until the NFL teams start talking about newer ways of ranking draft slots, however, this chart will serve us well.
Other Links of note:
Thaler Massey Study: The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence and Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.
1. There is no such thing as a perfect TVC. Ultimately, every TVC can be criticized. You are assigning a point value next to a pick. "How do you go about giving a pick a certain value?" This is something that must be accepted because it is what the TVC is. How did Jimmy Johnson determine how much each pick is worth? I am doing the exact same thing, except I am solving the problem of not handcuffing the top five picks to their teams.
All I am saying is, if you are going to criticize my TVC, then just realize we can find faults with every TVC. The bottom line is we need to find a better solution to how we go about determining pick value. My TVC is absolutely open to criticism, but instead of complaining about it, make your own TVC and try to improve it.
2. While it is important to have fluidity at the top of the NFL Draft, it is also important teams are well compensated for their high picks. It does no good to put together a TVC that is not top-heavy, if the teams at the top of the NFL Draft are still getting ripped off in their deal.
For example, Scouts Inc. in ESPN the Magazine put out their own TVC. To move up from No. 2 to No. 1, it merely cost a team their seventh-round pick. Seventh-round picks never really pan out, often used as camp fodder. The top picks need to have some value, or it is better more for the teams trading up than the teams trading down. The idea here is to find a balance.