MHR 2010 Draft Pick Trade-Value Resource

This chart is pretty straightforward, though I would like to note that it is in NO WAY an 'official' chart in use by the NFL. This chart does, however, make a good starting off point for evaluating pick-for-pick trade values.  I do believe that NFL teams are moving away from this model of pick valuation, especially in the last year, as this model has historically rated mid-round picks far less valuable than the contributions gained from individuals chosen at those spots, though it is closer to being accurate when the production from those spots is averaged.  Until the NFL teams start talking about newer ways of ranking draft slots, however,  this chart will serve us well.

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 30001 58033 26565 11297 43129 27161 14.2193
2 26002 56034 26066 10898 42130 26.6162 13.8194
3 22003 55035 25567 10499 41131 26.2163 13.4195
4 18004 54036 25068 100100 40132 25.8164 13196
5 17005 53037 24569 96101 39.5133 25.4165 12.6197
6 16006 52038 24070 92102 39134 25166 12.2198
7 15007 51039 23571 88103 38.5135 24.6167 11.8199
8 14008 50040 23072 86104 38136 24.2168 11.4200
9 13509 49041 22573 84105 37.5137 23.8169 11201
10 130010 48042 22074 82106 37138 23.4170 10.6202
11 125011 47043 21575 80107 36.5139 23171 10.2203
12 120012 46044 21076 78108 36140 22.6172 9.8204
13 115013 45045 20577 76109 35.5141 22.2173 9.4205
14 110014 44046 20078 74110 35142 21.8174 9206
15 105015 43047 19579 72111 34.5143 21.4175 8.6207
16 100016 42048 19080 70112 34144 21176 8.2208
17 95017 41049 18581 68113 33.5145 20.6177 7.8209
18 90018 40050 18082 66114 33146 20.2178 7.4210
19 87519 39051 17583 64115 32.6147 19.8179 7.0211
20 85020 38052 17084 62116 32.2148 19.4180 6.6212
21 80021 37053 16585 60117 31.8149 19181 6.2213
22 78022 36054 16086 58118 31.4150 18.6182 5.8214
23 76023 35055 15587 56119 31151 18.2183 5.4215
24 74024 34056 15088 54120 30.6152 17.8184 5216
25 72025 33057 14589 52121 30.2153 17.4185 4.6217
26 70026 32058 14090 50122 29.8154 17186 4.2218
27 68027 31059 13691 49123 29.4155 16.6187 3.8219
28 66028 30060 13292 48124 29156 16.2188 3.4220
29 64029 29261 12893 47125 28.6157 15.8189 3221
30 62030 28462 12494 46126 28.2158 15.4190 2.6222
31 60031 27663 12095 45127 27.8159 15191 2.3223
32 59032 27064 11696 44128 27.4160 14.6192 2224

 

Other Links of note:

Thaler Massey Study:  The Loser's Curse:  Overconfidence and Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.

Walter Football Re-evaluated TVC:

1. There is no such thing as a perfect TVC. Ultimately, every TVC can be criticized. You are assigning a point value next to a pick. "How do you go about giving a pick a certain value?" This is something that must be accepted because it is what the TVC is. How did Jimmy Johnson determine how much each pick is worth? I am doing the exact same thing, except I am solving the problem of not handcuffing the top five picks to their teams.

All I am saying is, if you are going to criticize my TVC, then just realize we can find faults with every TVC. The bottom line is we need to find a better solution to how we go about determining pick value. My TVC is absolutely open to criticism, but instead of complaining about it, make your own TVC and try to improve it.

2. While it is important to have fluidity at the top of the NFL Draft, it is also important teams are well compensated for their high picks. It does no good to put together a TVC that is not top-heavy, if the teams at the top of the NFL Draft are still getting ripped off in their deal.

For example, Scouts Inc. in ESPN the Magazine put out their own TVC. To move up from No. 2 to No. 1, it merely cost a team their seventh-round pick. Seventh-round picks never really pan out, often used as camp fodder. The top picks need to have some value, or it is better more for the teams trading up than the teams trading down. The idea here is to find a balance.

  Matttvc2_medium

via www.walterfootball.com

Matttvc3_medium

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