I Ran (So Far Away) -- The Story of the Broncos Running Game in 2009

Thanks for your efforts

If Denver should keep Hochstein over Kuper? I guess that has to do with pass protection which I assume will be in your next article. Maybe a center like Pouncey will make both of them better? Probably should try to upgrade all 3. Otherwise that is pretty much what I saw watching the games.

I totally love the way you lay all of this out. Helps us see what Denver does well & what they need to do to improve.

2 observations, not directly related to your research:

1)Buckhalter’s first name is Correll not Cornell. ;-p

2)It’s helpful to remember that Denver’s running struggles are not a one year phenomenon. Our rushing attack has been declining steadily since 2005:
2005 2546 yards
2006 2152 yards
2007 1957 yards
2008 1862 yards
2009 1836 yards

It might be interesting to see if your method could be applied to each of those years to see if there is any discernible pattern to the decline. :)

It’s worth noting that Knowshon’s fourth down expected points is over 2 because one of the fourth downs was run for a TD against KC, if I remember correctly. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that would certainly explain why his expected points were so high on fourth down. 2 carries isn’t a noteworthy sample size, but it may throw some people if they just glance at it (like I did).

Can you get Walter to get Ryan Harris a toe? With nail polish on it, preferably.

This is why MHR is the best out of both the traditional media and the alternative media.

We even keep our bread-and-butter fans accountable. I am a big believer in statistics, and these are definitive. I like the conclusions you draw from them, and anyone who even insinuates that there is no place on MHR for criticism of the coach has henceforth been proven wrong.

I like it; keep ’em coming!

This confirms a lot of the suspicion/supposition I had even halfway through the ‘09 season. Here’s my take (opinion):

Let’s just come out and say a few things:

1 – Buckhalter, when healthy (that’ll always be the knock on him), was by far the best back to have on the field.

2 – Harris was by far our best run blocker in 2009. Any talk of drafting an OT in the first few rounds is crazy. I understand that he’s a health risk, but with a player as effective as Harris, you go for depth or developmental talent for now.

3 – Denver’s offensive success is predicated on running. We became somewhat one dimensional last year after the Baltimore game. Denver doesn’t have the right QB or the right pass blocking personnel to be a one-dimensional passing offense. Not many teams do.

4 – Casey Weigmann is done. I know that contractually he has a year left, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver saw replacing him as priority #1 as it relates to the offense this offseason.

5 – Hamilton and Kuper are absolutely replaceable. So long as Denver has them as starting guards, they will NOT likely have an elite interior line. Hamilton rode pine and is small, he’s likely out. I would be surprised to not see Kuper back next year in the starting rotation though. I think he’ll get one more year to prove it.

6 – Denver must get far better production from their guards and center and they must hope that Ryan Harris gets healthy and stays healthy. If they can do that, they can run with anyone in the NFL.

7 – Moreno will become a better decision maker, but he doesn’t run to space like Buckhalter. Knowshon has a ways to go and a lot to learn. Knowshon looks like he’s thinking too much and trying to be crafty and elusive. He’s better served to hit a hole hard and then get elusive in the secondary, a la Buckhalter.

8 – I’d bet that Denver drafts yet another running back in the first half of the draft. They need depth behind Moreno (got dinged up a bit last year) and Buckhalter (a career full of injuries). Buck won’t be here for more than a few more years and there aren’t many teams without a couple of talented backs in their rotation.

9 – BShrout did a great job pulling old yardage from past years and I think more than anything, the steady decline is a combination of 2 factors: 1 – aging offensive line and turnover to new and inexperineced players and 2 – a new scheme and a much more passer oriented offense (not to mention that the whole league is becoming more passer oriented).

10 – We have to get away from the ‘thunder & lighning’ or ‘power & speed’ idea when it comes to having a few backs in your rotation. Buck & Knowshon aren’t that different. Nobody’s the ‘short yardage guy’, not that we need one. They are both good backs that can break a tackle. Denver simply needs 3 backs that are good enough to consistently pick up yards and break a few tackles as well as block in the passing game and be able to catch the ball well assuming that the O-line can do thier job at a passable level. That’s it. We don’t need a feature back, but we also don’t need the ‘mauler’ and the ‘speedster.’ That just limits what we can do on offense with certain players on the field. McDaniels wants utility players that can do everything. The perfect back for our offense would be Marshall Faulk. Dangerous in every facet. Let’s be honest, I don’t think we have that type of guy.

Actually, I can’t think of any. I don’t know how you do it but what an awesome job. Thanks

a lot to digest but really good. The first word that came to mind was predictable. And as the season wore on and injuries prevailed even more predictable. Opposing teams knew what the Broncos were going to do, which, means you have to be completely flawless in excecution on every play. And the Broncos weren’t.

That was excellent, of course. I guess that the off-their-meds crowd at DPO was right about the runs behind center. Shame on McD — I didn’t realize the extent to which the team tried to run up the gut behind an, er, declining interior OL. Yuck.

Dude, I’d like to hear a little bit more about the issue of how runs break down in different directions. The interesting thing to me in these numbers is that there is no “pure” measure of a lineman’s contribution. You had an EPV of .378 running around left end, 0.72 behind left tackle, and .2-something behind left guard.

Realistically, Ryan Clady is a part of all three types of plays. And yet on the type of run that most directly measures the left tackle’s contribution, the EPV is lowest. Maybe because he doesn’t have help? Maybe the left guard’s numbers are inflated because the left guard always has help from the tackle? Maybe McGeorge is right and Clady is a lazy disinterested quitty quitter?

This isn’t criticism of the method of course. There is probably no good way to deal with this. But I’d like to hear your thoughts.

By the way, if the Broncos draft Rolando McClain, can you work in a reference to John Coltrane’s Alabama? It doesn’t have any words, so it might present something of a challenge. But I’m sure you’re up to it.

I’m curious to see what the breakdowns are for both backs before and after the Harris injury. Did either back do significantly worse after the injury? How did each back do in comparison to down and distance? Did Moreno have more runs on predictable running plays?

I’m a big fan of both backs, but it seemed to me that Moreno progressed during the season, but also was having to break tackles in the backfield.

Great work and highly rec’d!

I really like the expected points value. Could you give a little more information about where the expected points value comes from and how it is determined?

I’d like to see some comparisons of Moreno’s rookie season to TD’s rookie season. Just for comparison’s sake.

TD is the benchmark afterall.

I also wonder if Buckhalter’s “greatness” here would have been significantly reduced had he carried the ball as often as Moreno.

Moreno, being a rookie, needed a season to learn the NFL. Here’s to hoping next season shows a marked improvement in his value…

I am totally not willing to throw him under da bus just yet. ;-)

This is a very nice statistic you’ve worked up. It nicely clarifies the values without being too arcane.

I’m not sure I see your conclusion about the running patterns pre- and post-Harris. To me, the increase in activity for the left side is coming from the middle, not from the right. In fact, the right tackle saw more activity, despite the horrible performance by Polombus. It looks to me as if the shift was from the inside to the outside. I wonder if we would see a trend if you looked at the run distribution for each of the four quarters of the season.

I also wonder if we’d see changes in the running back values looking at them in light of the Harris injury and the quartered season. My general impression was that the running game in general was much better earlier than late. It’d be interesting to see if the decline in overall line play across the course of the season correlates with Moreno’s performance.

Just from watching the games, it was obvious that running up the middle wasn’t working, but the stats show just how bad it really was. I’m not sure if the answer is a better run blocking center, getting a big bruiser back, or some combination, but the numbers again tell us it is critical for our offense to get those 2-3 yrd plays up the gut working again.
it’s also interesting to see impact of Harris and just how valuable he really is. I’ve never really been on the Kuper wagon, so the fact he was mediocre doesn’t shock me.

Very informative.

I have 2 easy solutions.

1. Sign Eugene Amano – Free Agent – Tennessee – who can play center or guard. Comes from great running team.

2. Draft one of the following – Mike Iupati , Maurkice Pouncey , Vladimir Duccasse , John Jerry.

Problem solved.

Awesome, TJ!

One other thing this makes me think of is that it reinforces to me that McDaniels is pretty darn good. In general it appears he was reacting in the right direction – he could have done even more, but he’s got a good head on his shoulders.

I wonder what the effect would be when there is a play called over tackle, the tackle makes a great block, a safety blows up the running back in the backfield. The tackle (though he made a great block) looks bad in the statistics. Just wondering…

Thanks and rec’d!

with focus articles like these based on you breaking down every single play from the season. I’m so excited.

I’m not a stats guy, but I do enjoy your posts of humor & commentary…Rec"d

To break down this into it’s granular parts is astonishing. I appreciate all the hard work you put into your analysis everytime.

If I could ask for a breakdown… I know that Moreno started out pretty horrible than had some solid games after. I wonder if there’s any correlation in his numbers relating to the rookie curve he had.

and my black curly locks are gone. NOOOOOOOOOOO! In any case, I agree with you on Buckhalter. Other than Dawk and Eddie Royal, he is perhaps my favorite Bronco. When you analyze the stats, there is little to blame Orton for so Orton haters need to stick their fingers where the sun doesn’t shine and shut up forever. Let’s keep Ryan Harris healthy and place Moreno in positions where he can excel. I’m looking forward to a solid season in 2010. GO BRONCOS!!!

This is good stuff and just show you why MHR is growing in size.

I am not totally surprised by the numbers you came up because they back up what we all saw as the season played out. I know the numbers on Moreno aren’t great, but he is a rookie and needs time to get things together and I am sure with better lineman he will get better.

Two questions:

A. Any insight from your stats and/or film viewings as to effectiveness of the single set vs. using a fullback? I know the TE can serve as the battering ram but I felt like they should’ve used a fullback more often none the less—mabye especially on those failed moreno attempts up the gut. Just wondering if you’ve got thoughts on that.

2. Did Flock of Seagulls introduce the Keytar to the world, or maybe was it DEVO? These things keep me up at night.

This is fun diving this far into the numbers.

the heck with him, tool. He was allegedly a fan back in the Floyd Little era Chalk him up to the area of scumbags who think Mr. Bowlen’s losing it. We don’t need pieces of trash like that in Bronco Country. Thank goodness he’s gone. Of course, being the Christlike Mormon I am, I told him I’ll save room for him on the bandwagon if he wants to come back. I’m just tired of all the friction from fans who are glad when we fail in the McX era just because it gives them vindication.

Especially when it comes to Raider/Raider fan burns :D

Thanks TJ!

My two cents is that Moreno was only a college senior and still can grow. My first impression when I say him in camp is that he is a little puny.

Kuper was hurt bad in the preseason (high ankle sprain) and probably was never 100%. Kudo’s to him for playing one legged.

Harris is a beast and anyone could see our goose was cooked without him. Hope he heals up.

What amazed me in some of your findings was the performance of Ben Hamilton. It turns out, he wasn’t that bad in run blocking. The question is, how did he do when man blocking vs zone blocking?

I bet the ZB saw more success, given his familiarity and size.

I admit I am surprised to hear that Russ Hochstein was our best guard! Like you said, most of us thought it was Kuper. That doesn’t mean I’d like to see Kuper leave, but I do agree with you that he should not be overpaid. If McD drafts a guard in the 2nd round, I can just see the upheaval the move will cause, if the new guy takes Kuper’s spot while Hochstein mans the LG position. Ouch.

Finally and without a doubt, we do need a new center. Wiegmann did well for us in 2008 and dropped off last season. I’d be happy if he’s retained for depth, but am hopeful we can upgrade at this critical spot.

Rec’d your post, Dude!!!

I wasn’t able to read this entire article, because I don’t have enough time. I do find it interesting though. I think Moreno will improve with time. I would like to see him put on a few lbs. I think that might give him some added strenght and leverage. He was running stronger at the end of the season. He has all the tools, just needs to break more tackles. Buckhalter is awesome, and I would make him the starter. His biggest downfall is being injury prone, so it is important to have another healthy back (Moreno) to share the load.

I sipping on the Koolaid, hope it gets better!

I definitely abide.

i’m not much of a stats guy, either, but this analysis and it’s conclusions make a lot of sense. buck is clearly the better back right now, moreno needs some time. he could definitely get stronger, also, he looks a little slight to me, and i’m concerned with his durability at a very hazardous position. he has a lot to work on, given he was drafted for his versatility. the kid’s a worker, though, and he will certainly improve in all areas. the dancing/celebrations have to go, though. right now, buck is just better at decision-making and hitting the hole with authority. too bad with his injury history, you could just see he can be special. these are 2 really good backs, and should both do better with a little help(inside blocking, passing game, …), as noted above. i’m all for upgrading the 3 interior line positions, although kuper may work out. c and lg we have to improve now, this scheme just doesn’t suit them. do you have a stat for the percentage of runs hamilton ended up on his butt? stats aside, i disagree he was an asset in the running game, especially short-yardage, where we really need him to be.

it would be very interesting to see this sort of feature related to our defense, and where the biggest improvement would be needed there. i suppose you would have to include the front-7, as the linebackers were designed to make the tackles in most cases. it seems we got burned the most right up the gut, at least later in the season. this may be even more complex to figure out, i imagine. great points in the comments by all, several areas need to be addressed here. personally, i would like to see a bigger/stronger back(wanted shonne greene) rotated in . breaking tackles and moving/falling forward are more of a rb attribute than the line, i would think. we don’t have a short-yardage back, most teams do. blame the line/blocking if you will, but some guys just get it done on 2nd effort, running low, and moving the pile. we’re not going to have huge maulers in there to pave the way, in any case, just an upgrade. versatility be damned, we need to convert. period. since we’re going power-style anyway…

Thanks for this great breakdown of our running game.

Others above have already stated alot of what I got from this. The stat that blew me away was the run success…I mean failure.. over center. After looking at that, I’d almost have to say that center is a bigger need than OG, but both are badly needed.

I feel that Buck appears to be the better player, but defenses feel like he’s more of a recieving threat so they back off a bit….might explain his better numbers. I REALLY hope that Josh will use more dumpoffs to both backs this year.

I think Knowshon will be fine, and will go on to a very nice career once he’s comfortable behind the blocking scheme.

showing Harris being carted off, it sure looks like he has a real small foot for a big guy. I’m the same height as him and my feet are a lot bigger. Is this going to be a chronic problem for Harris (foot injuries?)

As always, awesome work! I really appreciate all the time and energy that you put into your posts- keep ’em coming!

The only thing I can take from the 2009 running attack was like a cadbury egg…solid on the outside, soft in the middle. I kept screaming and cussing when they would run up the gut on short yardage to only to get stuffed and lose possessions.

Keep these coming ;-)