2010 NFL Draft Watch: Centers
(Note: This is the continuation of a series of articles looking in-depth at each position category in the 2010 NFL Draft. All players will be evaluated based on their fit in the Broncos' scheme and quality of player preference)
Now on to what is generally considered the Broncos' #1 area of need and priority upgrade: Center. In compiling this list, I was struck by just how horrendously thin the 2010 crop is at this position. After the top guy there is a massive drop-off in talent, and after the top 3 opinions vary from 4th round to better off selling cell phones. Due to that dearth of prospects and variety of "expert" opinion, I will expand the parameters to all 7 rounds of the draft. Again, I will be using the position designations on NFLdraftscout.com for a starting point.
In addition to positive personal qualities (i.e., hard worker, good football IQ, tough, leader, versatile), I will be operationally defining an "ideal" center for the Broncos' power running scheme with the following: big, low center of gravity, excellent at anchoring, good with his hands, solid footwork, mean streak preferred. Less important will be agility or pure athletic talent. Obviously, run-blocking will be a priority over pass-blocking (but this must also be solid), and they absolutely cannot be often pushed back or blown off the ball.
Like on the defensive line, Vortex7 has a great post on the Offensive Line that is excellent reading in a similar vein. Again, I am indebted to PredominantlyOrange for his use of the War Room information.
| PROSPECT NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| Maurkice Pouncey | 5 stars | OC |
| Erik Cook | 5 stars | OC |
| J. D. Walton | 4.5 stars | OC |
| Kenny Alfred | 3.5 stars | OC |
| Kevin Matthews | 3 stars | OC |
| Eric Olsen | 2.5 stars | OC |
| Ted Larsen | 3.5 stars | RG |
| Chris Hall | 3.5 stars | RG |
| John Estes | 3 stars | RG |
| Matt Tennant | 2.5 stars | LG |
| Jeff Byers | 2.5 stars | LG |
Maurkice Pouncey (6-5, 318 lbs) Florida
2nd round
Scout.com: 5-star prospect
The man, the myth, the legend. The twin. If you come to MHR much at all, you know this guy's name. The unquestioned top prospect at center, he screams versatility, which might allow us to upgrade several positions in the middle with one pick:
Three year starter and possesses the versatility to line up at both center and guard at the next level... Possesses good height and bulk for any of the three interior OL positions. Speed and athleticism are adequate for size [Scouts, Inc.]
In fact, he started at RG his freshman year at Florida for 11 of 13 games. When asked by the Orlando Sentinel why a team should draft him, he replied, "I'm a competitor, a leader... I'm all for the team." His weight is excellent for our power scheme, and the only question might be with his height if he can get anchored properly. Apparently, yes:
-Uses his hands extremely well, possesses violent hands
-Very good strength
-Good anchor versus the bull rush
-Controls the POA
-Good run blocker
-Plays with good leverage
-Good physical toughness
-Very good balance, seldom on the ground [Sideline Scouting]
The War Room has some concerns about his technique, stating he must improve this before he will be ready to start in the NFL, and notes, "For a lineman with his size, athleticism, and strength, he ends up on the ground too much." Still, this guy has few weaknesses and fits our player mold as well as our scheme to a "T".
FINAL EVALUATION: 5 stars
J. D. Walton (6-3, 300 lbs) Baylor
3rd round
Scout.com: 4-star prospect
If we can't/won't get Pouncey, this is the next... maybe only other choice for us. Scott Wright of Draft Countdown summarizes him very well:
Tough and physical --- Finisher who plays with a nasty demeanor and has a killer instinct --- Excellent leadership qualities --- Gets a big push in the run game --- Stout at the point of attack
Doesn't possess eye-popping physical tools but makes up for it with top-notch intangibles and by doing all the little things
Sideline Scouting raves about his abilities in run blocking, as well as his intelligence and "good football IQ." He played in a zone-blocking system at Baylor, but in the Senior Bowl he held up well to both Terrance Cody and Dan Williams, so he has the ability to succeed in our system. He certainly has the low center of gravity and size to do so. This really caught my eye:
Works hard throughout the play, and agitates his defender even when on the ground. Gets low in goal-line and short-yardage situations to take out his man [NFLdraftscout]
The major knock against him is his lack of athletic ability, to which I say: So? The War Room raises some questions about his pass blocking, calling him "adequate at best". Still, he has great instincts and he can improve with good coaching.
FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars
Ted Larsen (6-3, 302 lbs) N.C. State
4th round
Scout.com: 3-star prospect
via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com
A one-year starter at center after being converted from defensive tackle, he is an intriguing physical prospect who is nonetheless very raw. He displayed a tendency to give high snaps especially early on, particularly in important and high-stress situations. He also was underwhelming at the Senior Bowl, allowing Cody and Williams both to get solid push into the backfield. Still,
-Hard worker, competitive
-Mean streak
-Works well blocking in tandem [Sideline Scouting]
He has good leverage and strength, so it was likely the jump in talent that threw him. The War Room calls him a "smart, instinctive player". He projects best into a zone blocking system as a center, but I think that he is a solid late-round developmental prospect at RG for the Broncos, although he will have to get much better at pulling (he has a tendency to lunge on the move) before he can start. I like his natural desire and talent, though:
Improving with his hand placement and is generally able to knock his opponent out of the lane, as he keeps his legs chugging with quick power steps. Flashes some nastiness as a run blocker. Looks to knock the defender to the ground with an intimidating pancake when he senses the advantage... High-intensity player. [NFLdraftscout.com]
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars
John Estes (6-2, 295 lbs) Hawaii
5th round
Scout.com: 3-star prospect
An extremely durable prospect who has started all 54 games of his career (NCAA record), he is very athletic and excellent in run support as well as being solid in pass-blocking:
Strong understanding of pass-protection schemes shows up on film. Quickly diagnoses and reacts to stunts, games and blitzes. Does a nice job staying on combo block until linebacker flows to one side or the other and can slide off block in time to get into the second level [Scouts, Inc.]
Unfortunately, he is undersized and while he has good upper-body strength lacks the lower body strength desirable at center, especially in a power-running scheme.
Flashes the ability to anchor and knows how to use leverage, proper hand placement and good balance. Lacks the bulk, strength and long arms to hold up consistently against a bull rush [NFLdraftscout.com]
I think that with his awareness, leadership, tenacity, and mean streak he can do well as developmental prospect at RG.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 stars
Kenny Alfred (6-2, 290 lbs) Washington State
6th round
Scout.com: 3-star prospect
I want to see what his actual weight is before we draft him. I've seen everything from 286 to 300 lbs. Outside of that, however, he is a very interesting prospect as demonstrated by this piece in the Spokane Spokesman-Review:
What really rings the eclectic English major's bell is discussing the relative merits of novels, or music, or, thankfully for Cougar fans, the satisfaction of knocking a big ol' defensive lineman back a few yards. "Run blocking is a lot of fun," the 6-foot-2, 289-pound Alfred said. "That's when you actually get to grind your feet into somebody and push and push and push" ... [offensive line coach Harold Etheridge says] "he's our leader, not only at the position but throughout the whole football team"
His snapping is "flawless", and he pops out of his stance quickly. He is equally adept at run and pass blocking. The major question is his limited ability to anchor and hold up to NFL bull rushes. That's a biggie. But, his hard work and possibility of putting on more bulk makes him a possible solid backup.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars
Kevin Matthews (6-4, 298 lbs) Texas A&M
6th round
Scout.com: 2-star prospect
via media.scout.com
There is much to like about Matthews: he was a former walk-on at Texas A&M, sat behind current 49ers center Cody Wallace for two years, and then when he stepped into a full-time starter role in 2008 was instrumental in transforming a horrific offensive line into a unit that gained the 3rd-highest passing yards/game in school history. He got himself on the preseason watch list for the Rimington Trophy, and garnered All-Big 12 Honorable mention in 2009. Intriguingly, he is the cousin of current Packer linebacker Clay Matthews III (Kevin's father is an NFL Hall-of-Famer).
Sideline Scouting notes some of his good qualities:
-Gets good leverage
-Good technique
-Solid knee bend
-Very solid and reliable run blocker
-Uses his suddenness and good leverage to open up holes
-Seals well
-Good awareness, works well with the Guards
-Tenacious, works hard to finish his assignments
His coaches describe him as "hard-nosed", so when combined with his obvious work ethic and moderate athletic ability, as well as good size, he sounds like a good fit for us. He would be a backup only at first -- he needs to get much stronger in the upper body and develop better anchoring technique -- but here is a solid depth guy at center.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 stars
Erik Cook (6-6, 320 lbs) New Mexico
6th-7th round
Scout.com: 2-star prospect
The most versatile center prospect not named Maurkice Pouncey. He has played both guard positions and at RT, plus he has good football IQ, is very intelligent, and has been "extremely reliable" (Scouts, Inc.) his past two seasons at C. NFLdraftscout.com says, "Coaches and teammates call him a leader by words and example on the field, in the weight room and in the locker room." That's quite an endorsement for our system.
His size and weight are excellent for a power scheme, and while he has adequate agility for his size he will never be mistaken for a pulling guard. Still, his strength is run blocking but he also has long arms and good pass-blocking technique. His anchor is "superb" against a bull rush, and he only gave up one sack and one penalty all season long.
For the coup de grace,
Few centers in college football win the Most Valuable Offensive Player and Most Valuable Player awards for their team to go along with Most Valuable Lineman. In part, that speaks to the lack of playmakers on the 1-11 Lobos' offense in 2009, but Cook's strength and leadership should not be overlooked.
Even in a losing cause, he continues to fight all-out. Look for him to get drafted and NOT cut.
FINAL EVALUATION: 5 stars
Chris Hall (6-4, 298 lbs) Texas
6th-7th round
Scout.com: 3-star prospect
He certainly sounds like a good fit:
-Versatile
-Physical
-Heady and intelligent, good football IQ-Gives a good effort, hard worker, competitive
-Good mental toughness
-Natural leader [Sideline Scouting]
He has started at least one game at every position on the line. He blocks with good leverage but needs to have much better strength before he can be a full-time NFL starter. He displays some really good agility and is very intriguing for RG, where his excellent initial quickness would allow him to get into good position and negate his strength disadvantages. He is a project right now but is solid depth for multiple line positions. The War Room compares him very favorably to the Colts' Ryan Lilja, which I find to be quite a compliment.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars
NOTICEABLY ABSENT
Matt Tennant (6-5, 290 lbs) Boston College
2nd-3rd round
Scout.com: 4-star prospect
A very good athlete, most scouts give him plenty of praise for his "good football IQ" and his "flawless" snaps, as well as his "excellent" technique. His leadership qualities are also top-notch: in 2009, he was a team captain and a finalist for the Rimington Trophy. Besides, what was the name of that other BC center who played for the Broncos?... Tom something... Nalen? Walen? But wait:
Does not have the ideal bulk that you look for --- Not overly strong or powerful --- Gets pushed back --- Has trouble sustaining and will fall off blocks --- Won't get huge push in run game --- Plays too high at times [Draft Countdown]
Due to his somewhat undersized weight and less-than-desirable strength, plus his tendency to get pushed back by big defensive tackles, and finally him being primarily a pass-blocker, I just can't justify it. He's a zone-blocking guy only.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 1/2 stars
Eric Olsen (6-4, 310 lbs) Notre Dame
4th-5th round
Scout.com: 3-star prospect
If you don't already know, Olsen's father was a NYC firefighter who was at Ground Zero after 9/11. That's a great story, but it's also one that motivates Olsen to do his best on the field. He certainly does:
Charlie Weis called Olsen the line's "heart and soul." Durable lineman who fights through pain. Smart enough to make line calls. Plays with a nasty streak - knows his toughest opponent and goes after him all game long [NFLdraftscout.com]
His strength by far is pass-blocking -- he only allowed 1 sack in 450 attempts. Unfortunately, he just doesn't cut it in run blocking:
-Struggles to anchor against bigger defenders
-Can be walked back [Sideline Scouting]
His versatility (started both G positions as well) is useless to us, since our guards must pull/trap often -- which requires good agility, change of direction ability, and good angles. Olsen has none of those qualities. If he goes undrafted, he is absolutely worth a look for our PS, but that's about it.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 1/2 stars
Jeff Byers (6-4, 285 lbs) USC
6th round
Scout.com: 2-star prospect
I wish I knew why he is listed at center, since he's spent much more time at LG. He has plenty of experience -- he's had 6 years of college eligibility -- he does great in pass protection and has great agility allowing him to pull and trap well. He is very competitive, has good mental toughness, and works to the whistle.
But, this is a killer:
-Narrow base
-On the ground too much
-Plays too upright and loses too many battles for leverage
-Not real strong at POA, can be walked back into the pocket [Sideline Scouting]
Ultimately, he doesn't have the leverage to be a center for us, and he doesn't have the bulk to be a guard for us.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 1/2 stars
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Comments
Excellence again, Tackster
Even though I saw a huge decline in Wiegman this year, I actually like the idea of Pouncey playing LG next to him next season. He’d get to learn side-by-side from a seasoned vet who’s seen everything there is to see form the center spot and be ready to step in either later in the season or next year.
Unfortunately, as a fan of ND, I’d have to agree with you on Olsen. Love the guy and his story, but his weaknesses were evident on the field. Could he be coached up? Don’t know, there was definitely turnover in OL coaches at ND during his time there. I wasn’t super high on John Sullivan when he came out either, but he had a really solid season for the Vikings.
Step aside, my friend, I been doin' it for years.
Said sit on down, open ya eyes, say open up ya ears....
Thanks!
Pouncey at LG is a suggestion we don’t see a lot, but it makes sense. If we get an upgrade over Hamilton/Hochstein, it could render Weigmann adequate.
I really wanted to give Olsen the pass. He is great practice squad material, but I don’t see him as anywhere near an answer at C.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 15, 2010 5:57 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
This is great!
Your two highest rated guys (Pouncey and Cook) are the two guys I want on this squad. Seems like Cook will be a bargain starter in the 5th round on, so I say we should go for it!
by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 15, 2010 10:55 AM MST reply actions
Didn't even know about Cook until I did this
That’s why I do it!
We’ll have to see where the other Cs go, but if we miss out on Pouncey and Walton, there is no reason I can see why not to target Cook at that late in the draft.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 15, 2010 6:01 PM MST up reply actions
I like the sound of Cook.
Pouncey would be great, but I just don’t know if McD will see it as enough of a need to move up/down to be in a position to get him. In fact, I’m not even sure he sees it as as big of a need as we do. There is the possibility Olsen or someone else is the plan.
Another superb prognosis SaaT. Rec’d.
"Just trying to win a MF game."
Yep
This draft will tell us a lot more about McD’s drafting/team building tendencies, not only because of one more year of experience but also because of more time to properly evaluate prospects.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 15, 2010 6:02 PM MST up reply actions
Lupati and Pouncey
Surf and turf, lobster and steak, Lupati and Puncey man, am I salivating over that draft dish. Some kind of combination of trades for picks (Marshall, Schefler, Hillis, and compensation for RFAs) lands us those two picks, a 2nd round DT, and a solid LB (1st through 4th). Talk about a smorgasbord. Alas, nothing but dieting on low cal snacks (the dead time between now and the draft). Little sweet teasers to build our appetite, like “sharp as a tack” posts, and I will be ravenous by the time the combine starts. Keep em coming ST. There’s no harm looking at the menu while whine is being served.
"Peace, a journey without distance to a place we have never left."
Nice play on words.
There has been plenty of whine served. I think a few fans are getting a bit tipsy. :)
"Just trying to win a MF game."
Don't customize a Lupati jersey
You might get odd looks, lol. Mike Iupati is a very solid prospect, but I’m not as high on him as I once was. He was caught holding five or six times in the Senior Bowl, and he was cited as saying he’d rather play RT in the NFL because tackles make more money. Not that there is anything wrong with wanting more money, it’s just, I would want my guys to want to play whatever position they can to help the team win.
by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 15, 2010 7:17 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice write ups
I disagree with the Tennant evaluation, I think this kid has a nice nasty streak in him like Nalen did. Word at the Senior Bowl was he did a more than adequate job holding the point of attack. And I thought he was about 290lb, so I think he has more than adequate bulk for a center, maybe a better zone guy, but I still think you need a center that can pull and trap in the power scheme McDaniels.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
Tennant is an on-the-fence guy
I almost gave him the benefit of the doubt. Boston College has some great O-linemen lineage, and the War Room at least seems to think he has the frame to bulk up.
I’m very concerned with his run blocking — several sites noted that as a weakness of his, mostly due to his height and not-quite-adequate center of gravity. After our power run blocking problems last year, that’s a big issue.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 15, 2010 5:54 PM MST up reply actions
OC Kevin Matthews...That's good enough for me.
Intriguingly, he is the cousin of current Packer linebacker Clay Matthews III (Kevin’s father is an NFL Hall-of-Famer).
I thought some guys here would like that!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 15, 2010 5:55 PM MST up reply actions
Before
this post I was on the we have to get Pouncey bandwagon. I just didn’t see many good prospects at the C position. Thank you for giving me great perspective on the other possibilities. I like Cook and Matthews alot. Cook already has the size desired, but Matthews has potential to bulk up a bit and has the pedigree to be a great C for many years.
"Just trying to win a MF game."
It's always a dangerous proposition when you get "tunnel vision"
I’ve found so many “alternatives” already through this series; I can’t wait to find more!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 3:25 PM MST up reply actions
If Pouncey can play center and guard
he won’t last until the 2nd round.He played at a big school,in a strong conference and still is a 5 star rating.I hope we get him with a pick in the early 20’s but to do that coach would have to be specifically targeting him.So can’t get our hopes up too much.
If
He has snaps at G in Florida, but not a significant amount. It’s mostly speculation at this point, and especially after speculating Iupati could play tackle and then seeing him not do well at that in the Senior Bowl, I think GMs will be reluctant to pull the trigger on speculation.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 6:10 AM MST up reply actions
You're welcome!
thanks for the time you take to read them.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 6:08 AM MST up reply actions
This is excellent
Thanks for bringing some attention to alternatives in our selection of offensive linemen. It’s good to know that in case another team reaches for Pouncey, the Broncos will not be dead in the water. Eric Cook could be a steal, based on the scouts’ description of his talent.
Rec’d your post SAT.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
Thanks!
It is good to know there are other options, yes. That’s one of the many reasons I do these posts.
Glad they’re helping!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 6:08 AM MST up reply actions
Awesome post, SaaT. Rec'd.
You’ve given some order and precision to the OC that are available this year. Why draft someone who doesn’t fit for us?
I could see trading down with, say Arizona, so that they could take Dez Bryant at 10/11 and we could grab Pouncey at #27. Add an OG later and we have 2 guys who could push Fry/McChesney/Hamilton/Weigman for starting positions. If we got a 1st and 2nd/3rd for our high pick, we could fill 2 spots with possible starters.
Thanks for your time and energy.
Sayre had a great post recently
about how we may end up staying in-house (largely) for our line issues. We want to be careful of pinning all our hopes on a line-heavy draft (defense or offense). It is likely that most of them will not be ready to significantly contribute their rookie season, and we could end up reaching and being stuck with a Jarvis-Moss-type player in the process.
Even Pouncey might not be a play-right-away kind of player, according to some.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 6:07 AM MST up reply actions
Wow...Pouncey has no fat at all...
That is one solid dude.
In my dreams, he falls to us in the 2nd round…..I don’t think it’s gonna happen unless we make a selection trade in the 2nd.
It would be hard to ignore the talent at 10/11 just to drop and get Pouncey…
What an intersting draft it’s going to be!
"Brandon Marshall will be a happy BRONCO WR in 2010"
Broncotodd - 2009
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
Interesting indeed
I have at least two solidly possible guys I would take at 10/11, and then 3 more that I would strongly consider taking… all before I would trade down.
Still, I want to have as many picks as possible in this year’s draft. Those two are incompatible. We’ll see what Josh has to say in April.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 3:28 PM MST up reply actions
I like Pouncey a lot from the long-view...
…but tend to see this idea that an early-entry linemen— especially a Center— is going to step in and be a significant difference maker in 2010. Denver runs an extremely complex offensive system and puts a great deal of mental pressure on the center. If Pouncey ends up being the guy, I’m going to be excited, but I’m also going to strap on my own helmet and get ready for the He’s-a-Bust Wars, circa 2011 offseason. I suppose he might be able to step in at left guard, but I will maintain until I’m blue in the face that with Pouncey and Iupati sitting on the board, it’d simply be insane to draft a future center at the expense of one of the most promising LG prospects in ages.
I hope a solid veteran C can be mined from FA and that they look at Walton starting around round 4. If they do go oline in the first round, Iupati and Bulaga both seem like far better ideas to me. In each, you got a guy ready to step into the far less complicated G role with the real ability to become, at the very least, a nice 3rd T option.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Feb 16, 2010 8:12 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
dang
meant to say…“— is going to step in and be a significant difference maker in 2010 as a little crazy.”
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Feb 16, 2010 8:13 AM MST up reply actions
It isn't just Denver either
since about 1998 or so, the numbers of centers drafted, let alone early, has dropped significantly, from around twenty a year to single digits in recent years. Several other positions have seen this same dynamic, and no team seems to be free of this dynamic.
Basically, there are many positions which take significant time to develop, and center is one of them, regardless of scheme played. Add in that these slow developers last a long time once they “get it” and you have recipe which drives down value at particular positions for the draft. There will always be the super talented players that will step right in and make veterans expendable, but on average, teams cultivate centers from CFAs.
The positions that need to be targeted early in the draft? WR, RB, CB, TE, by a heavy margin. These are also the purest athletes out of all the players on the field. So, in a nutshell, you draft “youth” in the draft, in its most essentialized incarnation.
In a “win-now” production oriented entertainment business, they use the first days of the draft as a means to acquire the one thing that you simply can’t find elsewhere in the market: youth. All the rest, including scheme fit, experience, developed players have better competing markets, namely CFA and UFA.
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 16, 2010 2:51 PM MST up reply actions 7 recs
I would add QB to that group of players you listed as he is the one who handles the ball more than anyone else.
That the reason if I were the coach I wouldn’t draft a quarterback just for the sake of drafting him. The QB I would target would have to have to skillset to fit my scheme and system. That’s what I hope Mcdaniels does when he goes after a QB and I am sure he is smart enough to do that. We often see teams draft quarterbacks that don’t fit their scheme and then they have to build around them causing a slow down in the progress in the teams.
by bfree2bronc on Feb 16, 2010 3:05 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Fantastic comment, Jeremy
It caused me to think about the economics of the draft in a totally different light.
From that perspective, I wonder if it ever makes sense to call one of the “workmen” positions can’t-miss.
I wonder how the current valuation of tackles (especially left) and pass-rushers plays into that. I noticed that QB was left off of your list — was that intentional? QB, LT, and DE(/OLB) all seem to be intertwined.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 3:40 PM MST up reply actions
intertwined -- yes
They all relate to the passer. Value in many cases relates to their ability within or against the passing game. LT is one of the highest paid positions. And it’s not about “can’t miss” but about impact. Their role on the team is more valuable.
That’s also why I advise (directly below) looking for quality athletes at other OL positions. It’s not athleticism in the sense of the ZB somatotype, since athleticism is still a good thing, but they need to be bigger & more powerful.
no goats, no glory.
ditto
I thought about posting something along the lines of what you’ve said, JB. Last year’s draft crop was dubbed The Year of the Center by one analyst (and it was) for the depth of what later yielded seven Centers, eight if you include Max Unger. And two of those were 7th round picks and another, a 6th rounder, is actually a LS.
I was actually looking at this crop as being very good while O’Dowd and Wisniewski were rumored as possible early entrants.
I still think that we should redirect our attention to other sources, such as OTs or OGs. I haven’t seen many people (none, besides myself — actually) who’ve examined the idea of finding an OC in other places. Seth Olsen has talked about playing OC, and moving Kuper there is an intriguing idea. A little outside-the-box thinking seems to in order for this problem. I won’t lobby for any particular solution but the one guiding principle seems to be translating ZB OL personnel to a more power scheme (speaking loosely). BTW — Kuper is our PC and KC so it’s not that far-fetched (and kudos to whoever came up with it).
no goats, no glory.
I'd add QB, but you've got a great point
I found this list of the first three draft choices from 1998 to 2009. All the picks were quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, offensive tackles or defensive ends. For the most part, I think this supports your idea – TE and CB are also necessarily best in the higher rounds.
NFL Draft Year with the first three picks
No.1 2 3
2009
QB OT DE
2008
OT DE QB
2007
QB WR OT
2006
DE RB QB
2005
QB RB WR
2004
QB OT WR
2003
QB WR WR
2002
QB DE QB
2001
QB OT DT
2000
DE OLB OT
1999
QB QB QB
1998
QB QB DE
I’ve seen an article that claimed that WRs can be found in any round, and it cited players such as Welker, etc. It didn’t do a good stat analysis on the idea, though – just made the statement and backed it with a few examples. Not exactly stellar work – I only add this because I find the idea of working out the balance between the jump that WRs have to make and how many of them fail to be an interesting problem. Intelligence and hard work are as essential as physical gifts – finding all of them is tough. The first few taken aren’t always the ones that make it, even without Al Davis picking.
One thing that it shows – Eric Berry is often found in the 3rd slot, but while I’d understand the pick, it’s unlikely he’ll go that high. Stranger things have happened, though.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
You've made me wonder about something
Indeed our offensive system is complex, and if it puts the requirements on the Centers that you say it does, perhaps we should afford Wiegmann the same courtesy we do pretty much everyone else:
“He’s learning a new system, give him time.”
Maybe C will be much improved next year without any impact additions.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 16, 2010 3:32 PM MST up reply actions
I didn't get the idea that Wiegmann struggled with assignments...
…and such, but rather that he wore down. I don’t know if its age or innate ability, but he simply seemed to lack the strength to drive block and anchor against bull rushers. I think father time has caught up with him, and he’s in steep decline. I honestly don’t anticipate him getting better.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Feb 16, 2010 4:48 PM MST up reply actions
Pure speculation
I have no idea.
It just hit me that I have never had the argument advanced that Wiegmann was learning our new offensive system. Then I wondered why — was it because his physical skills were so obviously lacking, or was that just a simple enough explanation to cause people to not look further?
Just trying to see if anyone has any pro- or con- evidence to that idea. If your eyes saw wear and tear, then that’s helpful to know.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 17, 2010 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
don't kick him to the curb yet
I’ve been saying all along that he’s not done yet, and his experience is still quite valuable to us. We need to have someone in place for when he’s gone, with 2011 being the target year.
I think people misjudge the tone of my comments (not that this revolves around me). I BOTH talk about replacing players before most other people do and I resist the idea of letting go too soon. These aren’t contradictory ideas, what I’m saying is that transition should be kept as gradual as possible. I’ve even suggested that Hamilton could still be of use (once his contract is re-worked) as a Center. Also, I strongly prefer vets on the OL but I’m always one of the first to advocate finding a future replacement for a point still years away when they’ll be needed.
I’d be quite happy to work (primarily) with our existing resources and use the draft for the future, which is how it should be used. Every OL draftee needs a good 3-year period to learn his position. And they can also be lower picks if they have this apprenticeship period. I don’t mind middle round picks because I’m not trying to rush them into the lineup.
no goats, no glory.
This has beeen on my mind a bit
what about this as a potential solution: resign Hamilton at a reworked contract, and move him at 292 to C, with Weigmann at backup as a 280lb player?
When Josh talks about the Oline, the guy who stands out as not fitting the most, in terms of measurables, is Weigmann, who we only got in the first place because KC moved to a bigger lineup.
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 16, 2010 7:15 PM MST up reply actions
whoops
just reread your comment and moving Hamilton to Center is exactly what you said. Missed the center part the first time through…
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 16, 2010 7:17 PM MST up reply actions
that's the idea
I don’t think we should be anxious to discard veteran talent, especially on the OL. I proposed using Hamilton at OC (exclusively barring injury) at mid-season, when I also starting writing on the theme of fixing the OL. I believe we benched Hamilton shortly after that. And I’m not tooting my horn for noticing what had become all too obvious.
Just noticed your followup.
To extend my comments — we shouldn’t be reluctant to use Hamilton & Wiegmann as a continuing solution at Center. A fix at LG (and at RT) would go a long ways towards helping the overall situation as we work towards grooming replacements. My point is to keep the vets where we can and work towards a gradualist solution. Two vets at Center is better than a speculative solution involving rookies. Besides, an offseason of rest can do wonders sometimes. The two of them should be able to handle OC alright and only one position — LG — is slated for immediate replacement.
no goats, no glory.
I don't know...
…I can see the logic, I guess. But both were getting blown up routinely last year. Love their character and intangibles, but I have serious doubts that either is up to it physically anymore.
That said, with teams trimming rosters already, it goes without saying that they’d probably have been waived already if the organization had a similarly dim view of them.
Hamilton to Center might be an intriguing experiment, though— if my memory is correct, he was initially drafted with an eye towards eventually replacing Nalen. Then when he turned into a heck of a LG, Kuper was drafted with an eye towards replacing Nalen. Maybe the C solution is, indeed, in house.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Feb 16, 2010 9:19 PM MST up reply actions
the basic idea
If they are truly done then they’ll be gone. I tend to see breakdowns as not strictly an individual phenomenon, and we had both Hamilton and Wiegmann playing alongside each other. Shoring up the neighboring position — LG — and allowing them to split Center might have better results than anything else we have right now.
We don’t have an alternative at OC right now so we may have to use at least one of them, but I"m not sure who’s the better candidate. Platooning them would distribute the physical burden and they could also still contribute by being the backup at several positions. My hunch is that we have better results if we simply add size elsewhere and limit our exposure at OC. Experience counts more at OC so I’d rather have vets there while we work towards a long term solution. The critical point is that we can’t solve the problem until we have a solution is place, so we don’t really have a choice until then.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Feb 17, 2010 12:20 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
Thanks for the discussion, guys. It’s really helped me think critically about some assumptions that get bandied about frequently here and in the MSM.
I’ll make sure I do L/RG next on this series, since that seems to be the consensus next problem. After that, it’s (O)tackles and then on to linebackers!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 17, 2010 12:23 PM MST up reply actions
Don't forget to mention FAs (Mawae)
I see that Mawae is going to be cut. Age is obviously a concern but that was true for Dawkins, too.
I actually like the idea of using an older (39) but still productive player while we’re developing the future starter. It’s fixes the problem for a year or two and allows us to go about developing draftees at a more leisurely pace, besides giving us the leeway to add OLs later in the draft — assuming we bring in a free agent OG. These are solutions that we can accomplish. We then get to take the BPA in the draft without being as restricted.
no goats, no glory.
I like the idea.
To be able to address any issue in house seems to be the path of least resistance. I hope one or both is up to the challenge.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Feb 17, 2010 12:54 PM MST up reply actions
Lonie Paxton
6’2"-281,10 years in NFL.4 year starter on offensive line and long snapper in college.Why can’t we beef him up at play him at guard or center?He did both jobs(Oline and LS) in college.
He knows coach’s system.Is that too farfetched?
I would be very skeptical of the success of that
“bulking up” is always a bit of a dicey proposition. They can lose athleticism, endurance, stamina, and technique when they put on weight. Plus, maybe their frame just isn’t cut out for it. Finally, ideally we would have a center who is 300+ lbs — 295 is really the bottom limit. That’s a LOT of extra weight to put on.
Also, even if Paxton did play C in college, he is 10 years and lots of coaching removed from that. It might have a negative effect all over if we try to return to that state of affairs.
With his experience and pedigree, however, he is indeed an intriguing option.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 17, 2010 12:28 PM MST up reply actions
Sorry it took me so long to get to this
Another fine effort Sharpe. Keep up the good work.
And thanks.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Thank you!
that’s fine — I haven’t even started on the next installment yet — we’re all busy people!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 19, 2010 8:42 AM MST up reply actions
Joe Hawley
Scott Wright has this guy in his underrated listing so I wouldn’t ignore him — and I realize this is a late posting. Hopefully, more traffic will be generated once the rest of the OL is posted.
I’ve continued to ponder the situation at OC and I’ve been on the lookout for sleeper prospects who will be available late.
no goats, no glory.
When I find time to breathe
I may have to truncate the rest to get it all done — this is the first spare moment I’ve had in a while!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 25, 2010 2:48 PM MST up reply actions
Great job Sharpe! Rec'd.
I like any kid from a football family, They have lived and breathed football their whole lives…and the Matthews clan has good pedigree all ways around. Would love to pick this kid up!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Absolutely
That certainly helps. It shows they’re in it for the love, not the money.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 25, 2010 2:49 PM MST up reply actions
Please!
Any Chance we can get some other positions? I really enjoyed your focus on specific locations for the Denver Broncos.

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