Answers in Search of a Question: 2009 Impact Rookies

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 11:15 AM MST in 2010 Denver Broncos Offseason

“We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself." -- Lloyd Alexander

I've said many times that my ability to accurately predict which rookies the Broncos (or anyone else) will draft is laughable, at best. The process of free agency and the draft is as mystifying to me as trying to figure out what choice my wife is going to make in any given situation.

That said, I thought it might be fun to look back at some of the rookies drafted in 2009 and see if they were able make an impact on their team in that rookie year. Vic Carrucci of NFL.com published an article in which he offered up a list those rookies who were popularly expected to have the greatest impact on their teams. That article may be found here:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d81025951&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

I merged Carrucci's list with the player ratings generated by Pro Football Focus. If you'd like to see the charts for yourself, they may be found at:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/home.php?tab=home

Pro Football Focus uses a fairly complex system for rating players. If you would like to see their full explanation of how they arrive at their ratings, you may go to their article at:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/about.php?tab=about#grad3

Put simply, PFF uses a scale of -2.0 to 2.0 to rate each play a player is on the field for, then normalizes that data to provide a single rating score for various "jobs" the player is expected to perform. An average score would be 0.0. The higher the rating, the better the performance, the lower the rating, the worse. Positive ratings are displayed in green. Average ones in white. Negative ones in red.

I have included the following ratings/data:

Position	Ratings
QB	Overall	Pass	Run	Penalty
HB/FB	Overall	Pass	Run	Block	Penalty
WR	Overall	Pass	Run	Block	Penalty
TE	Overall	Pass	Pass Block	Run Block	Penalty
O-Line	Overall	Pass Block	Screen Block	Run Block	Penalty
Defense	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty

The charts that follow apply these ratings to the rookies and incumbents listed in Carrucci's article:

Baltimore -- ROT Willie Anderson vs Michael Oher

Baltimore		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass Blk	Screen Blk	Run Blk	Penalty
Incumbent	Willie Anderson	OT	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Michael Oher		1067	3.5	2.5	1.5	8.5	-9.0

It should be noted that Willie Anderson was cut by Baltimore prior to the season, and was not picked up by any other team in 2009.

Buffalo -- DE Aaron Schobel/Chris Kelsay vs Aaron Maybin

Buffalo		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Aaron Schobel	DE	849	2.3	2.5	1.5	1.3	-3.0
Incumbent	Chris Kelsay		932	-20.3	-10.4	2.5	-11.9	0.0
Rookie	Aaron Maybin		231	-13.6	-6.3	1.0	-7.3	-1.0

Maybin saw limited duty and ended up 4th on the depth chart.

Buffalo -- OL Brad Butler/Langston Walker/Jason Peters vs Eric Wood

Buffalo		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass Blocking	Screen Blocking	Run Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Brad Butler	OT	84 (IR)	3.3	0.0	0.0	3.3	0.0
Incumbent	Langston Walker		xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Incumbent	Jason Peters		xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Eric Wood	OG	613	-7.7	-1.4	0.0	0.2	-6.5

Walker moved to Oakland, Peters to Philadelphia
Butler played OT and ended up on IR, while Wood played OG. Wood did not post particularly good numbers.

Carolina -- DE Julius Peppers vs Everette Brown

Carolina		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Julius Peppers	DE	806	12.3	12.9	5.0	-2.6	-3.0
Rookie	Everette Brown		401	0.2	2.8	3.0	-4.6	-1.0

Brown made a good showing when in the game, though he was significantly worse in run stopping than Peppers.

Cincinnati -- OT Levi Jones vs Andre Smith

Cincinnati		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass Blocking	Screen Blocking	Run Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Levi Jones	OT	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Andre Smith		115	0.1	2.3	0.0	-2.2	0.0

Jones ended up in Washington; Smith still did not break into the starting lineup.

Cincinnati -- LB Dhani Jones vs Rey Maualuga

Cincinnati	LB	Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Dhani Jones	ILB	1015	-5.1	-0.2	0.9	-3.8	-2.0
Rookie	Rey Maualuga	OLB	476	5.2	-2.1	-2.4	9.7	0.0

Jones ended up playing an ILB position while Maualuga was an OLB

Cleveland -- C Hank Fraley vs Alex Mack

Cleveland		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass Blocking	Screen Blocking	Run Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Hank Fraley		306	1.6	1.8	-0.5	0.3	0.0
Rookie	Alex Mack		1016	16.3	0.6	2.0	15.2	-1.5

Fraley was moved to G while Mack stayed at C

Cleveland -- WR Donte Stallworth vs Brian Robiskie

Cleveland		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Donte Stallworth	WR	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Brian Robiskie		221	-3.2	-2.4	0.0	-0.8	0.0

Stallworth was suspended for the season; Robiskie ended up 6th on the depth chart.

Denver -- RB Correll Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan vs Knowshon Moreno

Denver		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Correll Buckhalter	RB	413	-1.4	-0.2	3.3	-3.5	-1.0
Incumbent	LaMont Jordan		59	-4.5	-0.8	-2.7	-1.0	0.0
Rookie	Knowshon Moreno		611	0.7	-4.2	4.5	1.9	-1.5

Moreno was able to take over the starting position; Moreno was better in run situations while Buckhalter was better in passing situations; Jordan was a non-factor.

Green Bay -- DT Ryan Pickett vs B J Raji

Green Bay		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Ryan Pickett	DT	346	-0.6	-2.2	-0.5	4.1	-2.0
Rookie	B. J. Raji		144	-3.5	-2.9	-0.5	-0.1	0.0

Raji seemed to underwhelm.

Green Bay -- LB Brady Poppinga/Brandon Chillar vs Clay Matthews

Green Bay		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Brady Poppinga	LB	264	-8.6	-4.8	0.4	-2.0	-2.0
Incumbent	Brandon Chillar		11	-0.4	-0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0
Rookie	Clay Matthews		860	19.7	8.8	2.7	10.2	-2.0

Matthews came in and seized control of his position.

Houston -- LB Zac Diles vs Brian Cushing

Houston		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Zac Diles	LB	511	6.4	-0.9	7.0	0.3	0.0
Rookie	Brian Cushing		1025	15.4	7.3	5.5	7.6	-5.0

Cushing was able to establish himself as the more dominant LB.

Indianapolis RB Joseph Addai vs Donald Brown

Indianapolis		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Joseph Addai	RB	682	3.1	0.0	-0.6	3.7	0.0
Rookie	Donald Brown		242	-1.2	1.9	-3.6	1.5	-1.0

Brown was used situationally as Addai remained the stronger running back.

Jacksonville OT Tra Thomas/Tony Pashos vs Eugene Monroe

Jacksonville		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass Blocking	Screen Blocking	Run Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Tra Thomas	OT	154	-6.6	-3.8	0.0	-1.8	-1.0
Incumbent	Tony Pashos		xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Eugene Monroe		895	-9.8	-12.4	-0.5	7.1	-4.0

Pashos ended up with San Francisco; Monroe established himself as the stronger choice.

Miami -- CB Jason Allen/Eric Green/Nate Jones/Joey Thomas vs Vonte Davis
/Sean Smith

Miami		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Jason Allen	CB	329	2.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	-3.5
Incumbent	Eric Green		xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Incumbent	Nate Jones		448	-1.1	-1.0	2.3	-1.4	-1.0
Incumbent	Joey Thomas		xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Vonte Davis		709	1.9	0.4	3.7	2.8	-5.0
Rookie	Sean Smith		914	0.8	0.0	-1.6	2.9	-0.5

Green and Thomas were both cut; Green was picked up by San Francisco; Davis and Smith became the dominant pair.

Minnesota -- WR Bobby Wade/Sidney Rice vs Percy Harvin

Minnesota		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Bobby Wade	WR	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Incumbent	Sidney Rice		950	18.4	22.0	0.0	-0.6	-3.0
Rookie	Percy Harvin		520	9.7	12.6	2.0	-0.9	-4.0

Wade ended up with Kansas City; Harvin played an important role, but Rice had the stronger season.

Minnesota -- OT Artis Hicks/Ryan Cook vs Phil Loadholt

Minnesota		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass Blocking	Screen Blocking	Run Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Artis Hicks	OT	86	-1.7	-2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0
Incumbent	Ryan Cook		7	-1.8	-0.8	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Rookie	Phil Loadholt		1068	-7.9	9.1	0.5	-8.5	-9.0

Loadholt established himself as the starter.

New England -- S Rodney Harrison vs Patrick Chung

New England		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Rodney Harrison	S	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx
Rookie	Patrick Chung		194	1.8	0.9	0.8	1.1	-1.0

This was a strange situation. Harrison retired prior to the start of the off-season training sessions. Chung still ended up 4th on the depth chart.

NY Giants -- WR Steve Smith/Domenik Hixon, Sinorice Moss, Mario Manningham vs Hakeem Nicks

NY Giants		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Steve Smith	WR	908	6.1	12.8	0.0	-2.7	-4.0
Incumbent	Domenik Hixon		234	3.6	0.3	0.0	3.3	0.0
Incumbent	Sinorice Moss		54	-0.4	-0.1	0.0	-0.3	0.0
Incumbent	Mario Manningham		680	3.5	7.1	0.0	-2.6	-1.0
Rookie	Hakeen Nicks		528	5.1	4.9	-0.4	0.6	0.0

Moss ended up being the odd-man out in this group as Nicks was able to establish himself as the solid #3 receiver.

NY Jets -- RB Thomas Jones vs Shonn Greene

NY Jets		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Blocking	Penalty
Incumbent	Thomas Jones	RB	643	-7.9	-3.6	-2.8	-0.5	-1.0
Rookie	Shonn Greene		170	-2.6	-1.4	-1.8	0.6	0.0

This was an interesting set of ratings, since the running game was seen as a strenght of the Jets. Perhaps it shows the importance of strong o-line play.

Tampa Bay -- QB Byron Leftwich vs Josh Freeman

Tampa Bay		Position	Snaps	Overall	Pass	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Byron Leftwich	QB	181	2.0	3.0	-1.0	0.0
Rookie	Josh Freeman		590	-3.0	-4.0	2.0	-1.0

Freeman was able to win the starting spot away from Leftwich.

Washington -- DE Phillip Daniels vs Brian Orakpo

Washington		Position	Snaps	Overall	Rush	Coverage	Run	Penalty
Incumbent	Phillip Daniels	DE	627	-5.0	-9.3	1.5	2.8	0.0
Rookie	Brian Orakpo	OLB	922	0.5	10.0	-5.0	-2.5	-2.0

Both Daniels and Orakpo saw significant playing time; the difference in the official listing of their positions may indicate they were used situationally.

From these ratings, we can see where some rookies came in and had very good showings, while others did not do as well. From this, we can see that a team can not be completely certain as to what they will get with their draft picks. Below, are some of the names that I recall having been advanced as good choices for Denver, along with a brief comment about their year:

Oher - a solid year after the incumbent was cut prior to the start of the season.
Maybin - did not see much action and struggled when he did.
Maualuga - saw situational play and overall did well though he struggled in rush and pass coverage.
Raji - did not see much action and did not post strong ratings when he was in.
Matthews - a solid year and took control of his position.
Cushing - a solid year in control of his roster spot.

If there are others on Carrucci's list that I've omitted, please feel free to list them and comment on them in the comments section.

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Comments

I have a problem with a lot of their rankings in this instance… some just seem “off”.

by Todd Jewell on Feb 16, 2010 12:05 PM MST reply actions

I'm entirely sold on PFF's system

But it seemed like an interesting discussion starter.

There’s a lot of different systems out there, and the biggest thing I wanted to do was find a single system that addressed not only the skill positions, but the guys in the trenches as well.

I also wanted to avoid the overly simplistic, fantasy-football style over-reliance on points and yards.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 12:10 PM MST up reply actions

but I love that you put it together, great job

by Todd Jewell on Feb 16, 2010 12:05 PM MST reply actions

Thanks

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 3:20 PM MST up reply actions

Nice

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Feb 16, 2010 12:06 PM MST reply actions

Kern and Berger

Name Team P Rating No. Yards LG Avg. Max. HT %Ret. BK TB OB Dn FC Ret Ret Yds In 20 Net Yds

Brett Kern DEN 6 5.1 27 1245 64 46.1 5.00 48.1 0 6 2 2 4 13 194 9 34.5
Mitch Berger DEN 10 0.4 51 2145 65 42.1 5.20 43.1 0 2 4 10 13 22 169 14 38.0

If a punter is most beneficial if they have good net yards, hangtime, percent returned, return yards and within the 20, Berger is ahead of Kern. Kern is ahead in average. Why does Kern get 5.1 overall, a pretty high grade?

I love this site!

broncorat

"Our word for the week has been accountability...and anyone that showed any indifference to that, we’ll play without them, and we’ll play well anyway."

by broncorat on Feb 16, 2010 1:01 PM MST reply actions

Good question

I didn’t really look at punters, and looking at those stats it’s hard to see where PFF is placing an emphasis.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 3:24 PM MST up reply actions

Excellent work

I happened across a few players situations – players who some of the fans wanted badly for the Broncos. I found their circumstances revealing. For instance, but Fili Moala and Terrance Taylor were held up by fans as the kind of DL players we should have drafted, had McD “known what he was doing”. I found this on Scott Wright’s website @ http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-B.php

<This may sound like a broken record but the Colts still need help at defensive tackle. It looked as though Indy had finally solved this problem by re-signing Ed Johnson and drafting Fili Moala and Terrance Taylor but those moves haven’t worked out. Johnson was released (again), Taylor didn’t make it out of training camp and Moala has been a major disappointment thus far. Needless to say the Colts haven’t gotten much production from the interior of their d-line.

Since Moala and Taylor were among the players that many dunned McD for passing up on, this one interested me as much as Rey Maualuga. I’m looking forward to the article! By the way, it’s interesting that this is what Wright sees, but Jim Caldwell felt that it was actually the O-line that let them down in the SB. Food for thought…..

Rey Maualuga was cast as a guy with some serious character problems and he dropped to the second round on that issue more than any other. He is currently in Betty Ford for detox and will be there a minimum of 30 days. While I wish for him nothing but the best and some folks in his position unquestionably turn their lives around, the character issues that were mentioned are already a major distraction – he’s not working out in a proper facility 5 or 6 days a week, and that’s what he really needed to be doing, professionally speaking. He can turn this around, but the issues were appropriately seen and measured. I hope he can overcome it, and my thoughts are with him.

Great work, Brian. Players in the draft are always going to be a gamble, no matter how good the rating system. Thanks for showing this so clearly. Rec’d!

Don't say rebuild - say reload...

by Doc Bear on Feb 16, 2010 1:03 PM MST reply actions 3 recs

orakpo was the obvious skip, he was the one we screaming for with our first pick... how'd he do?

C Mathews was another.
Of course Rey Maualuga was up there too… we’ll see how that one pans out.
Moala and Taylor “fans wanted badly?” Not.

by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 16, 2010 1:44 PM MST up reply actions

Moala & Taylor?

You dug deep for those names… what about the list at the end of the article? Those were the names I heard bandied about the most. Add Sanchez and T Jackson to that list. “had McD known what he was doing” Indeed!

by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 16, 2010 2:05 PM MST up reply actions

Great post BS

This is precisely the reason that I dont automatically believe that Moreno will be a great back.

Just cause your drafted in the 1st round doesnt entitle you to greatness

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Feb 16, 2010 1:13 PM MST reply actions

Like that quote:

Just cause your drafted in the 1st round doesnt entitle you to greatness

The flip side of that is “Just cause you’re drafted in the later rounds doesn’t deny you the chance to be great.”

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 1:22 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

I happen to like yours better. lol

And I will say that Denver has as good a record as anyone drafting in the later rounds.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 16, 2010 1:31 PM MST up reply actions

Good stuff.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Feb 16, 2010 1:43 PM MST reply actions

Good work!

I think that Moreno and Ayers will have a much better year next year. Especially Moreno because Denver is bound to get some new guards and a new center in there.

Nice post! :)

"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".

"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.

by broncoholic on Feb 16, 2010 1:52 PM MST reply actions

Don 't love the scale but it sure makes for interesting discussion...

It looks like most of the picks we fans begged for turned out better than our actual picks! (Rey M played well we’ll see if he can controll his issues), even Sanchez! Raji or Tyson Jackson weren’t available but looked ok…. I’m thinking McX better do better this year, what do you’all think?

by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 16, 2010 2:00 PM MST reply actions

Love the Lloyd Alexander quote.

: )

by NedBronco on Feb 16, 2010 2:28 PM MST reply actions

Thanks

It captures my approach to most discussions. :)

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 3:26 PM MST up reply actions

It's really hard to believe

that teams can say with any athority that this player or that player will be their savior of the future. Drafting in the first round is always a risk and from number 1 to 32 the risk grows slighter in terms of wasting good money after a bad selection, IMO. Why teams would even want a top 10 pick is beyond me, because the risk is greater to number 1. Take the Rams for instance, they had the #2 pick last year and now the #1 pick. That’s alot of money for two players in just 2 years and there is no guarantee that those 2 players won’t be busts down the road. That’s where team scouts become a very valuable asset to the team. Their ability to evaluate college prospects is what makes or breaks a team in building the future and gaining a winning combination.

If we take a look at a few teams that seem to win on a constant basis we can go even deeper and look at the people who have evaluated and graded prospects and see how valuable these people are. Pittsburg, New England and Indianapolis come to mind and hopefully now that McDaniels/Xanders have a full year under their belt they too will make great decisions in evaluating our prospects. From what they had and the time alotted them last year showed me a glimpse of the things to come in a brighter sense. I believe we will be one of those elite teams that wins on a constant basis. Thanks Brian for the post…

by bfree2bronc on Feb 16, 2010 2:45 PM MST reply actions

Cushing and Matthews had solid seasons? Didn’t they both make the Pro Bowl as rookies.

Moreno had what can be described as a solid season.

Those two were outstanding.

San Diego Super Chokers – The annual preseason Champs, eternal post season chumps. Stay Classy

by McGeorge on Feb 16, 2010 3:42 PM MST reply actions

I did use the words “solid” season in reference to both of them; largely because I did not look at them in comparison to the rest of the league — only in comparison to the incumbent player they were supposed to challenge.

Plus, if you look under the charts, my first comments were:

Cushing was able to establish himself as the more dominant LB.
Matthews came in and seized control of his position.

The purpose of the article was not to assess how they did in comparison to the league, but rather, did they come in and have the impact on their team alluded to in Carrucci’s article.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 3:50 PM MST up reply actions

thats a great point Brian

The purpose of the article was not to assess how they did in comparison to the league, but rather, did they come in and have the impact on their team alluded to in Carrucci’s article

And one that I do not think can be taken lightly. At some point in the next year its going to be enough about how bad the OLine is or how we need another ILB. Its going to be about stop making excuses and make some plays for your team. Because they’re no perfect teams in this league and if you think one can be built people are sadly mistaken. Sure we can upgrade, but there is no guarantee that the guards or center we bring in is going to play better then what we have now.

At some point Moreno is going to have to break a tackle, or Orton is going to have to stare down a DT running full steam at him and deliver a strike. or so on and so on.. These rooks are drafted to make a difference and at some point it needs to be made.

Like Josh McDaniels said.. I’m just trying to win a Mother F@#king game…. and I dont want no excuses nor any stats. I just want a win and to make the playoffs.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 16, 2010 4:07 PM MST up reply actions

good stuff Brian

measuring “impact” is one of the main goals of a fanbase such is represented here by MHR. In outlining “impact”, however, we need to establish many things, which is why these long protracted discussions are needed (and why no “all-knowing answer” ever succeeds as thoroughly as it seems like it should).

What are we measuring?

First we need to frame the limits and scope of what constitutes impact, while identifying clearly current states that are to be impacted. Are we drafting a RB (or OG or WR) with the intention of rounding out a roster? Raising our ypc or yac? What are we trying to accomplish?

How do we measure?

This is a process of gathering and analysing info that you and others have made such a popular pasttime at MHR. While no “ultimate” measuring process comes into play, we need to constantly expand our comfort levels with salaries, positional responsibilities, and in knowing overall “impact” factors, such as just what exactly wins you a game or two in the NFL.

In all of this process, discovering and identifying “indicators” is the most pressing business, as most of the work comes down to accurately rendering decisions based off of indicators. These can be either quantitative or qualitative:

quantitative: How many? How often? How much?
qualitative: Who? What? Why? When? Which? How? Where?

Part of the process of acquiring players is establishing indicators for them, so we know whether they helped us or not. In general, we all say “Did we win more games or go to the Superbowl?” which is fine as far as it goes, but it just isn’t clear enough for the business of hiring and firing players. We have to be specific, about what we expect with impact, or else no player will ever be good enough for us… Our dreams have no trouble outpacing us or our realities.

Of course, as a teacher, you probably have seen the above plenty of times….

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's MR.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 16, 2010 6:36 PM MST up reply actions 5 recs

You're absolutely right, Jeremy

I rec’d your response, because it says a lot of what I believe.

It is a process; one for which there probably is never going to be a final, definitive all-encompassing “answer.”

The questions you pose are precisely why I chose the title that I’m going to be using for my articles, and the quote at the beginning.

As fans, all we can see are the “answers” — roster moves, rookies drafted, plays called, statistical results, team record, etc. From these, we are left to try and infer what the questions were. It does precious little good to know the answer is “42” if we don’t know what the question was.

I absolutely love this quote:

We have to be specific, about what we expect with impact, or else no player will ever be good enough for us

What frustrates many fans is the fact that we’re on the outside looking in: we see the results (answer) but we don’t know what questions the coaches were asking. Or even more troubling for some, we assume we know the both the question and the answer and feel frustrated when the results don’t match the expectation.

So we compare, we analyze, we discuss, then we sit down, have a beer and good laugh. :)

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 16, 2010 8:52 PM MST up reply actions

very true. !@#$

by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 16, 2010 8:58 PM MST up reply actions

LB is not nearly as dependant on other players performances as RB is...

Had our OL been intact and healthy all year, Moreno would have been in the ROY running as he was halfway through the year….just my opinion however. :)

"Brandon Marshall will be a happy BRONCO WR in 2010"
Broncotodd - 2009

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

by Broncotodd on Feb 17, 2010 7:50 AM MST up reply actions

Sure it is

Maybe you jsut dont see the results as distinctly as you would with a RB but LB play is directly influenced by the DL’s ability to keep blockers off the Linebackers.

And once again, like I mentioned earlier, Eventually the excuses for why this team cant make the playoffs or why Moreno didnt have a great year need to stop. If you believe some posters here on MHR then Orton had a great year, we have a very good receiver in Marshall and two of the best tackles in football. Thats a lot more then the St.Louis RAms have and Stephen Jackson still managed to get his yards.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 17, 2010 9:42 AM MST up reply actions

Great post B

I’ve never seen profootballfocus’ site before. I found it very interesting. I read in the comments that a few sort of aren’t fans of the actual system (although it appears most accept it as a jump off point). I was wondering if you’re aware of any other ‘systems’ like this you could point me at to compare with?

Anyway, great post. Looking forward to your “Answers” about our rookies, too.

Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!

by Alex on Feb 16, 2010 11:48 PM MST reply actions

The only other I've taken any kind of look at is pro-football-reference.com

They have an “average value” rating for each player in a year, and an overall “career average value” rating. They also have a fairly lengthy treatise explaining the system they use — from what I can tell, they attempt to factor in the play of everybody else on the unit (i.e. when looking at a QB, they factor in line play, RB, WR, TE play etc).

I loved Jeremy’s comment above about evaluating systems (I don’t know if you caught it). There’s a lot of different ways to look at/present data and a lot of what answers we arrive at are dependent on the questions that are being asked. PFF gives some interesting data and like you said:

most accept it as a jump off point

Which, IMHO, is what it’s all about — presenting a topic as a jumping off point & seeing what grows out of it.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 17, 2010 12:08 AM MST up reply actions

Thanks a lot!

I’ll be sure to check it out.

Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!

by Alex on Feb 17, 2010 6:38 PM MST up reply actions

Bottom Line...players need more than one year to get up to speed.

Nobody on that list above is a bust. If you call them a bust after one year, you have no patience, and would make a very bad coach/GM.

Thanks for the article B!

"Brandon Marshall will be a happy BRONCO WR in 2010"
Broncotodd - 2009

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

by Broncotodd on Feb 17, 2010 7:44 AM MST reply actions