Orton Theories

It’s difficult for me to accurately analyze Orton in the back half of the season. The QB I saw in the first half of the washington game is not the same guy I saw in week 17 against KC. The washington Orton looked like it finally clicked and he was comfortable in the offense and he understood exactly what was going on. The KC Orton looked hurried and desperate, like he knew it was such a big game that maybe effort would will his team to victory. I don’t know if the injury just hurt his mobility or his comfort level or what, but I have a hard time believing that we will see the KC Orton next season. I have some theories about this, but I’ll address those later, as I feel this comment is already getting rather lengthy. In short, I think that the longer he is in this system, the more comfortable and relaxed he will be and I think we can expect his level of play to only increase next season.

This was an excerpt from a comment I posted on Brian Shrout's post found here. The post was about "the long ball", but my brain drifted to Kyle Orton's whole body of work, as you can see from the comment I posted(or part of the comment, anyways). Well, it is "later", so let's get into some theories. Jump.

I've been wrestling with some questions for quite some time, now. It was hard to make definitive analysis right after the season is over, because emotions were still high, so I just stored some ideas in the old memory bank and let them collect interest. I feel like I've given it enough time and there have been numerous discussions about this topic recently, so it is time to lay it all out there.

Why did Kyle Orton play with increasing effectiveness from week 1 up until week 10 but he didn't play with as much effectiveness after week 10? How much, if at all, are Orton's problems related to other units on the offense?

First of all, let's qualify what "effectiveness" means, because I'm sure that I'll get comments about how I lack details and my post is too short. For the sake of this post, effectiveness means knowing the offensive gameplan, knowing the tendencies of the defense, performing at a high level on Sunday to capitalize on your preparedness throughout the week and winning the MF game. If you want statistics, it can mean getting the W, throwing for a high completion percentage, throwing more TDs than INTs, etc.

Here's one stat that emphasizes "effectiveness" and also helps all you stat guys to better understand where I'm coming from and why I even asked myself those questions. Kyle Orton had 5 games with a QB rating over 96. Of those five games, exactly ZERO of them happened after week 10. Of course, QB rating is loved by some and hated by others, however, for the general purposes of evaluating Orton's performance over the entire season, it's worth noting.

For the purposes of this post, I'm going to stay away from stats, for a little bit, because we already have TJ and BS that dominate and out-stat me any day of the week. This won't be a primarily stats post, but I will use a few stats from time to time if they help clarify a point, in some way.

So, back to the questions. Why did Kyle Orton play with increasing effectiveness from week 1 up until week 10 but he didn't play with as much effectivness after week 10? How much, if at all, are Orton's problems related to other units on the offense?

I think a lot of members have danced around some answers to Kyle Orton's problems, but haven't put it all together. I think is a collection of things. Nothing about the game of football can be explained by pointing out one particular thing. It's normally a collection of things that contribute to the whole. Kyle Orton's struggle is a multi-variable problem, with not all of the variables stemming from his ability (or inability, as some members have stated). The simple answer would be "he was injured". While this is an obvious event that did happen in week 10 and does play some part in the downfall at the end of the season, it doesn't explain everything. The issue is much deeper than just his ankle.

Week to week

We'll start at the beginning, as most stories do, and quickly go through and see if we can find some trends or tendencies throughout the season that contributed to the downfall of Orton and the offense. I'll try to be as brief, as possible, so we can get to the analysis, but I also want to make sure that we get a chronological idea of some major events that are happening.

(Feel free to skip over this section if you feel confident about recalling the basic events of each game of the season. If you are like me and have a spotty memory, at times, then soldier on. You can do it. I believe in you. It will be brief and painless, I promise.)

The preseason game we all remember. Orton threw all kinds of interceptions and was boo'd out of the stadium. He didn't pass the stats test, but he didn't pass the eye test, either. He looked like a deer in the headlights, which was to be expected since he was that new to McD's system. As the preseason continued, he started to settle down and his TD/INT ratio began to improve. Then he hurt his finger. Oh boy.

Then came week 1. Orton had that awesome finger brace and played decent. The game was about field position. The offense didn't move very much, but the defense kept us in the game and we were saved by the miracle pass. The physical ability, alone, for a guy to throw the ball that far with a finger that looked like a mangled hot dog is very impressive to me. But I digress.

Weeks 2 and 3 go by, Orton is developing in the system, learning more and more, while his finger improves. The running game kept us afloat and our offensive line was playing really well.

Weeks 4 and 5 came and went, where Orton actually put up some respectable numbers (4 TDs and 1 INT that was a hail mary thrown to Randy Moss at the end of the first half). He even had a 98 yard scoring drive to take the NE game to overtime and a 56 yard drive to win the game in overtime.

Week 6 against the chargers, Orton put up 2 TDs with 0 picks. Respectable.

Then the bye week. This was a turning point in the team's confidence. I'll go into more detail later, but overall, the Broncos grew overconfident, up to this point, and after their loss to Pittsburgh, they became discouraged. Again, I'll go into more depth, but let this just marinate in your mind for a little bit.

Weeks 8 and 9, we were blown up by the Steelers and Ravens. It was dismal. We were beat up on both sides of the ball. The bottom line is that you can't lose the line of scrimmage on offense and defense. You will lose 99.9% of the games you play. Ryan Harris suffers a toe injury. More on that later.

Week 10 was THE WEEK. This game was played in Washington and marked the turning point of the Broncos season. Coming off 2 tough losses, the Broncos aired it out early. Kyle Orton threw two bombs for TDs and threw 2 feet too far on another pass, missing on a 3rd bomb in the first half. Kyle Orton looked comfortable. He was looking off defenders, throwing very well, putting up a 134 QB rating and 193 yards before halftime. Unfortunately, at the end of the first half, Orton suffered a nasty ankle injury.

Week 11, Orton was thrown to the wolves in SD. He was obviously limited in mobility and power (you throw with your legs, as much as with your arm), not to mention that Simms put Orton in a major hole by making early mistakes..... and being inept as a Broncos QB. 

Weeks 12 and 13, Orton did okay. The ankle was still bugging him, but he did what he had to do to win the games. The broncos never trailed in these two games.

Week 14 against Indy, his completion percentage was 70%, due to Indy's zone defense and Marshall's record setting receptions. He dinked and dunked, but the early deficit was too much to overcome. In this game, I think that Orton did all that he could, but since the Broncos were behind early, Orton had to go short when he wanted to go deep because that's what the Indy defense dictated. I could go on and on, but there are all kinds of fanposts about this back in the archives. Look for the series "Upon Further Review". That's always a good one if you want to see matchups, team strategies, tendencies and all that fun stuff. 

Week 15 against the raiders, Orton threw 1 TD and 0 INTs. So, it was a pedestrian day for Orton. It didn't help that the defense couldn't stop the Raiders running game and the Broncos running game was...... bad. 2.9 yards per carry versus 7.1 yards per carry. That pretty much tells the tale. 

Week 16 against the eagles, the Broncos had that game won. McNabb somehow got the first down on a third and 25 from the Philly 15 yard line. That was bad and it changed the field position battle in the fourth quarter. Orton played pretty well, though. 3 TDs and 1 INT. 65.9 percent completion percentage. . 

Week 17 against KC was bad. There's no two ways about it. 3 picks with 2 of them returned to the house is a bad day. It would have helped if the Broncos could have stopped Jamaal Charles from rushing for 259 yards, though.

So, week by week, we've seen a very broad picture of what Orton has done, throughout the season. Let's get specific, diagnose what happened and answer the questions. I'll ask them again, in case you forgot and so you don't have to scroll back to the top. Why did Kyle Orton play with increasing effectiveness from week 1 up until week 10 but he didn't play with as much effectiveness after week 10? How much, if at all, are Orton's problems related to other units on the offense?

The System

Kyle was learning a new system. He slowly started to understand it and get more comfortable in it. In week 10, Orton had his best game of the season and seemed very comfortable executing the offense, before his injury. After that, a number of variables factored into him being less effective than he had been, previously. There have been estimates that the system can be fully learned in 2 years. Orton has been in it for about six months. He's got room to grow into this system and improve by studying and practicing in the offseason. I think that he has the potential to be even better than he showed in the Washington game,.

Confidence

During the bye week, the team, as a whole (including Orton), played differently. Maybe they all took a trip to Tahiti during the bye and their minds didn't return with them? Maybe their egos got the best of them and they thought they were better than they actually were? I tend to think it is the latter, although a vacation would have been nice. Going into the bye, the team was confident about the way they had played and the week off gave them time to think about how good they were. Going into Pittsburgh, they were overconfident. They  were beaten badly. After that, they became discouraged. They played worse than they were. If you go into a game doubting your abilities, whether you voice it or not, your chances of victory are vastly reduced. As fans, you can feel that, as well.

Quick digression.... It makes me think about how important the Stokely miracle catch was. After that win, we played with extraordinary confidence. It's speculation to think about what would have happened if the miracle catch hadn't happened, but it definitely could have changed the overall confidence of the team and erased a few of our first six wins. The confidence that was created in week 1 was built upon as the weeks continued, making the Broncos more and more confident as the wins came rolling in.

The 2008 Broncos were a prime example of playing poorly when trailing and lacking the confidence to come back from a deficit. When they got down by a touchdown, my heart sank because I knew that it would be the struggle of a lifetime trying to come back from that. Turnovers and a poor defense certainly factored into that lack of confidence, but, nevertheless, any deficit seemed like an insurmountable one. In contrast,with the 2009 Broncos, in weeks 1 through 6, it seemed like they were overcoming first half deficits every week (in part to the confidence built upon the week 1 victory). It felt like the Broncos were always in the game, even if they'd spot the Cowboys 10 points before halftime or the Patriots 10 points before halftime.

On the back half of the season, however, when the Broncos would fall behind, it didn't feel as if we had as much of a chance, as we did earlier in the season. You can only imagine that the players felt the same way. They are people, too. They think, too. They get discouraged, too. They probably felt the exact same way that we did. During the KC game when you thought to yourself "here we go, again", there were probably players on the sidelines thinking the exact same thing.

Here's a note for you stat people. In the final 10 games, we won 2 games. In those two games, we never trailed. The Broncos led the whole way. They didn't spot the chiefs (week 12) or giants (week 13) 10 points like they did in the first 6 weeks. In their losses, they trailed at some point in the game (obviously). From my point of view, it's almost as if they got discouraged when they fell behind and tried to rush to get the lead. In their haste, they made mistakes which, inevitably, put them in a bigger hole, causing more discouragement and more haste. That, and the Broncos defense was bad and couldn't stop the run, but that's another fanpost, in itself.

Injuries and Fatigue

Kyle battled two different injuries. He injured his finger in the preseason and he injured his ankle in week 10. Yes, the injuries did have an impact in Kyle's play on the field. The ankle injury, especially, limited his mobility and power.

The offensive line also struggled with injuries. The big one was Ryan Harris. He was injured against Baltimore. He tried to come back, but he injured the same toe and was put on Injured Reserve. His presence, or lack thereof, was very significant. If you haven't read TJ's post about the running game and how Ryan Harris influenced it, it is definitely worth a read here. 

Fatigue also plays a factor in weakening the offensive line, especially with older players such as Hamilton, Hochstein and Weigmann. This could explain why they didn't show their weakness in the first few weeks, but over time, the line grew worse and worse. Kyle Orton was sacked 3 times in weeks 13, 14, 15 and 16 and twice in week 17. That is 14 sacks in the final five games of the season. On the season, there were 29 sacks on Kyle Orton, so almost half of those came in the final third of the season. Were some of those sacks because of his lack of mobility following his ankle injury? Probably, but the offensive line will not be given a pass, either.

How are the offensive line's struggles related to Kyle Orton's struggles? Sometimes, the run sets up the pass and other times the pass sets up the run. The similarity in both cases is that you need blocking to run and you need blocking to pass. Blocking is very important in the overall execution of an offense. Once you realize you can't run on third and short or you can't pass protect long enough for a longer route or you get blown up in the redzone and so on, you have to limit the number of plays you can run from your playbook. Good blocking makes all plays easier to run and opens up your offense to run a variety of different things. The jets, for example, rode deep into the playoffs behind their great offensive line and great defense. There wasn't anything spectacular about their offensive weapons, but they would win by beating you up for 4 quarters and taking big chunks of yardage when the defense cheated up to stop the run. The Broncos offensive line was nothing like that. At times, we had trouble stopping a four man front, let alone making the defense cheat up to stop the run or pressure the QB. We need to improve up front to take the next step in the offense.

So, what are we left with? Well, as far as I'm concerned, I think we've found the answers to the questions.

Kyle Orton's problems were caused by his unfamiliarity with the system, his injuries, Ryan Harris' injuries, fatigue from the older interior offensive linemen, and lack of confidence from the Broncos, going down the stretch. Part of the blame goes to Orton, part of the blame goes to his teammates, and part of the blame goes to uncontrollable circumstances such as injuries.

Moving forward, there are two things that can be controlled. Orton will progress in the system because of increased exposure to it and the Broncos will likely replace some interior linemen, this offseason. That should help the Broncos tremendously, going into next season.

Obviously, nobody can control injuries. They happen sometimes. Hopefully, in the case of Ryan Harris, he will be able to recover in time to start the season. If he can't, we may be looking for another tackle, although having depth is never a bad thing, anyways. For fatigue, there are a few things that we can do. We can get younger interior linemen in the offseason or put the older players on some sort of different training regimen so they are fresher, down the stretch. Personaly, I think that we should just scrap Hamilton and Weigmann and bring in some different guys through the draft and free agency.

Confidence is a different story, all together. It's easy to say "don't get discouraged", but it is another thing to put that statement into practice. Next season, if we start 0-3, guys will get discouraged. That's how it goes, sometimes. So, the best way to avoid confidence issues is to win a bunch of games, like we did in the first 6 weeks, while at the same time, trying to prevent overconfidence. It's tough to find that balance, but it is vitally important to the overall success of the team.

So, enjoy the offseason and look for the Broncos to improve along the offensive front (although there are other areas of concern, unrelated to Orton and the offense). Notice that I didn't say, one way or the other, whether I think Orton will be a longterm solution, going forward. He is the answer next season, in my opinion, based on his experience and growth, so far, in McD's system. However, to determine if he is the Broncos QB in 2011 and beyond, we'll need to see how he does in 2010. That's a situation I'm going to leave in my memory bank, for a while. Theories abound.

Well, it's been fun to theorize with you all and I hope to hear some of your theories, as well. Add some new variables I didn't address and expand upon the ones I touched on. The next time I get an idea, I look forward to sharing them with you all.