Evaluating the Roster – the State of the Broncos (As I Understand It)
by ejruiz on Feb 26, 2010 11:30 AM MST
in 2010 Denver Broncos Offseason
86 comments
Yesterday, I published a post describing my process for roster evaluation and some the inferences derived from it. Today, with that background thoroughly explained, I supposed it's only fair that I reward your patience by finally sharing my personal evaluation of the current roster of our Denver Broncos. Follow me below the fold and see just how far the rabbit hole goes!
For the purposes of this exercise, free agents will treated much like Schrödinger's cat in the famous thought experiment about quantum superposition: they will be simultaneously re-signed and gone, meaning that I’ll weigh both possibilities equally. Just to be clear, the positions and their grades are in bold, the starters are underlined, practice squad and future contract guys are italicized, and parenthetical notations are made for every impending free agent of every kind. Remember:
The specific definitions of the grades for this assignment are as follows:
A = All set
B = Depth wanted
C = Depth needed
D = Considerable need for a potential starter
F = Desperate need for an immediate starter
+/- = A potential future shift into the adjacent letter grade
Quarterback – Kyle Orton(RFA), Chris Simms, Tom Brandstater: C+
I firmly believe that Orton is good enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl championship (I chose every one of those key words carefully, by the way). While I do have some hope for our own Tom B, it’s imperative that we acquire a better back-up for the time being. There are viable options in free agency, plausible possibilities via trade and intriguing potential in the draft, so I would imagine that an upgrade in the position is impending.
Running Back – Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis, Bruce Hall, Lance Ball: B+
As some of you may recall, I both accurately predicted and actively promoted the idea of drafting Moreno last year; his rookie campaign, while solid, left something to be desired. I was also extremely pleased when we signed Buckhalter, but his impressive performance and even more awesome potential were overshadowed when concerns about his durability were validated once again. Hillis, a fan-favorite and seemingly theoretical ideal for McDaniels’ Ameoba Offense was handcuffed by mysterious issues that kept him in the coachs’ doghouse for most of last season. It would seem to me as though there is room for an additional contributor in this mix, though it would certainly not be a priority.
Fullback – Spencer Larsen, Peyton Hillis: C+
Though FB isn't really a position in our new offense, it sure would be nice to have someone on the roster that could perform these duties effectively at the crucial points throughout the year in which everyone called upon last season failed.
Wide Receiver – Brandon Marshall(RFA), Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, Brandon Lloyd (UFA), Kenny McKinley, Matthew Willis: B-
Without Brandon at the top of this depth chart, this position would be in far more dire straits than most people care to admit. It may make sense to add to this group even if the core remains the same. While Gaffney did amazingly well when pressed into a bigger role for various reason throughout the year, he’s not exactly young. Royal regressed in his second season, Stokley may well be entering the decline of his career and there is no depth to speak of behind them. Regardless of my personal dislike of Marshall at this point, it would be reckless to cut ties with him at the moment.
Tight End – Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler(RFA), Richard Quinn, Marquez Branson: A+
This unit is at least all set, with or without Scheffler in it. Graham is earning his considerable contract and I believe that Quinn will shine when he gets an expanded role. The potential that Tony flashed in the new system last season, however, is enough to make me hope he remains in a Broncos uniform. Even though he was a guy I wanted on this team coming out of college, I would not be all that upset if his days are in fact numbered.
Offensive Tackle – Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Tyler Polumbus, Brandon Gorin (UFA), D’Anthony Batiste: C
There is no better pair of young OTs in the league, but their back-ups proved ineffective when called upon. I have to believe that Harris will be back in top form coming off of his season-ending injury last year, but that event and the huge step backwards that the offense took thereafter should make it abundantly clear that depth at this position is rarely a luxury. Good back-ups are basically underpaid starter-caliber players and, unfortunately, we didn’t have any of those last season.
Guard – Chris Kuper(RFA), Ben Hamilton (UFA), Russ Hochstein (UFA), Seth Olsen, Matt McChesney, Mitch Erickson: D-
Kuper is a fine starting guard in the NFL, but Hamilton looks done to me. I felt that Hochstein was wholly ineffective in all the roles he was tried at and Olsen may profile better as a center, especially now that Casey Weigmann’s departure has essentially vacated the position. These positions could use multiple additions this offseason.
Center – Dustin Fry: F
With the news that Weigmann is done in Denver, our longstanding belief that this position required an upgrade has suddenly been replaced by the fact that we will be looking at a new starter in 2010. Though Olsen may step in to lessen the void, it would be hard to imagine the team not bringing in other options to compete for the job.
Defensive End – Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean, Vonnie Holliday(UFA), LeKevin Smith (RFA), Everette Pedescleaux: D
This squad vastly exceeded expectations, but they came back down to Earth by the end of the year and a talent upgrade is required. We can all hope that UDFA like Pedescleaux and Chris Baker step up to make an impact along the DL sometime soon, but they were undrafted for a reason.
Defensive Tackle – Ronnie Fields, Marcus Thomas, Chris Baker, J’Vonne Parker, Carlton Powell: D+
Fields acquitted himself unexpectedly well as the cornerstone of our new 3-4, but I have to believe that a more commanding presence would further tap into the potential of this defense as a whole. Despite my high hopes for Thomas and Baker, they haven't beaten Ronnie out for the job yet, so a new addition to push him may be needed.
Outside Linebacker – Elvis Dumervil(RFA), Mario Haggan, Robert Ayers, Darrell Reid, Jarvis Moss, Baraka Atkins: B+
Now the whole football world finally knows what our Elvis is capable of – despite his proving exactly that at every level he's ever played; I don’t believe that we can allow him to leave the building now. Haggan earned his starting spot last year, but I've seen enough from Ayers to know he's the future opposite Dumervil and the position looks like it’s in good shape if that’s the case.
Inside Linebacker – D.J. Williams, Andra Davis, Wesley Woodyard, Spencer Larsen, Nick Greisen, Braxton Kelley: C+
D.J. wasn't quite the force we thought he might become last season, but he was plenty good enough alongside the temporarily rejuvenated Davis. Woodyard continues to pleasantly surprise and I'd love for Larsen to get a shot to focus on this position. All in all, I think that this group may see enough internal improvement as to forego any considerable investment in the position unless the value is simply too good to pass up.
Cornerback – Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, Alphonso Smith, Ty Law (UFA), Tony Carter, Rashod Moulton: C
This starting pair is probably the best in the NFL, but the jury is still out on Smith as an heir apparent to either of those stellar veterans. Regardless, additional future prospects are needed to stabilize the position for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the sizeable role given to Law as a midseason pick-up. This is probably an underrated position of need, masked by the excellence of the senior statesmen heading this part of the depth chart.
Safety – Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill, Darcel McBath, David Bruton, Josh Barrett(ERFA), Vernon Fox: A+
This group includes a legitimate All-Pro, a could-be Pro-Bowler, a starter-caliber back-up, a TE covering specialist and a stud special teamer... what more could you ask for? Honestly, I cannot envision a scenario where it would make sense to address this position over any other, almost regardless of value.
Kicker – Matt Prater(RFA): A
Thankfully, he's turned things around and is living up to his potential.
Punter – Mitch Berger (UFA), Britton Colquitt, A.J. Trapasso: D+
This position was perhaps the most annoyingly frustrating aspect of our entire team last season and I'd be thrilled to see it settled in a positive manner. I’m not sure that the solution to this problem position is in-house already, so I’d be fine with adding even more names into the mix if necessary.
Long Snapper – Lonie Paxton: A
I think everyone is comfortable with this guy now.
Return Specialist – Eddie Royal: C
Royal’s a great returner, but I'd rather not have a crucial component of the offense doubling as the team’s return man if it can be avoided.
For the curious but lazy among us (I hope no one takes offense to that label, because it fits me far too well) I’ve done the "math" and our Broncos GPA comes out to just over an exact C+. That's only surprising in that this squad proved to be thoroughly average on aggregate last season and this outcome barely supports my prior claim that the normal distribution resulting from this sort of grading system would associate such a mediocre team with the average grade. I suppose the slight deviation from the exact grade of ‘C’ in this case can be attributed to some lurking variable(s), such as the extenuating circumstances associated with the regime change.
Anyway, I think it’s fair to say that the Broncos have plenty of needs to address this offseason, more than they have selections in the draft with which to do so, and that situation would only be made worse if we were to part ways with any number of our talented restricted free agents in order to acquire additional picks. Furthermore, those potential losses would significantly and negatively affect our positions of greatest strength on both the offense and the defense, perhaps causing exponential damage to the performance of those units that buoyed the team’s overall performance. We should instead focus on adding as much talent as possible along the trenches, while keeping an eye open for good values at the skill positions that could currently use additional depth. Those conclussions may not seem like news to you, but consider the potential implications of such an approach.
For example, popular first round targets like Rolondo McClain (ILB, Alabama) and Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State) would have to be that much better than their peers at positions of greater need for us – such as Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee) and any number of valuable/versatile offensive linemen – in order to be considered likely selections. That is, of course, unless those voids are filled by free agents and/or trade acquisitions prior to the draft. Suddenly potential signees like guard Logan Mankins, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin and defensive end Johnny Jolly hold the keys to our entire offseason and dramatically alter the landscape of the NFL Draft for us.
If you made it all the way through this rather length post and its shorter predecessor, I congratulate you for your dedication, thank you for your patience and look forward to discussing it all with you in the comments below. I encourage all of you, especially those particularly interested in the offseason, to go back to this step in the process and become reacquainted with the foundation of our team. It feels as though, with every mock draft and all the other rumored roster moves, we become further detached from that which should most inform and temper our speculation. Do not be confused by echo chambers and instead use all of the copious pertinent information available to you to make up your own minds about these things. Once again, I hope you find all of this valuable and I thank you for your time. Cheers and go Broncos!
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Wow
Very well done. I think this is an excellent view of the team and I can’t quibble with it much.
I would like to ask what you saw in Ayers to believe in him so much. I think that Doc was a pretty big fan of his, too, but the general opinion on this site seems to be down on him. I don’t think you can grade a player by how many sacks he had, but how he played in the scheme and I’ll admit I’m not good enough at watching film to see how he did.
I also think you’re bang on in you assessment of our draft needs unless FA strengthens our lines before then. McClain seems like a sexy pick (though I’ve never been in favour of drafting Dez) but I think that an OG or C would fit us much better.
Then again, one popular theory is best player available regardless of position, and either of those would possibly be the BPA at the time of our pick. Personally I hope that we are able to trade back and draft help for the OLine.
Thanks, EJ.
It takes neither courage nor intelligence to cheer for a team only when that team wins. The true test of a fan's mettle is the same as it is for a player: Were you there when you were needed?
aka Solace
Ayers
I would like to take a stab at answering this, with my VASTLY untrained eye.
I certainly do not have a quarter of the analytical ability of many pros here, but I would say that Ayers major downside this year was the learning curve. When he did NOT perform well, you could often see him confused and trying to figure out where he should be. He DID however, show amazing physicality for starters…how many suplex tackles have you seen from the Denver Broncos in the last few YEARS let alone last season.
He got to the QB a few times and did not get HORRIBLY burned during games where he seemed on point.
I personally think that with some more knowledge and a little more experience He should be Grade AYE….ers……..
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison
"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble
Good point Bronx
Late arrival at training camp undoubtedly contributed.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
by firstfan on Feb 26, 2010 12:51 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Ayers, the Draft, Etc.
You’re spot on when you say that you can’t judge a player like Ayers by his stats. The kid did a solid job learning a new position many people thought he didn’t have the skillset to make that transition. He showed flashes of his great potential and that’s all you can expect from such a raw young player. I wasn’t high on him when drafted, but I like him now; it’s just a matter of time before his hurries become sacks or lead to turnovers.
If we strick out in free agency, I’d think we’d have to focus on the trenches in the draft UNLESS the value elsewhere was overwhelming. I couldn’t justify picking McClain if Williams was still on the board and I’d have to consider anyone who could play a stellar guard for us. I’m a fan of BPA, but the situation in Denver is such that there are too many position with not enough talent to ignore…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
I think you're a tad off with the QB situation....
Allow me to work my middle school GPA averaging magic.
Kyle Orton – B – (3 points)
Chris Simms – F – (0 points)
Brandstater – Pass – (Pass/Fail does not enter into GPA calculations)
GPA – 1.5 =
D+
However, I imagine Simms will be tossed here soon and our numbers will be a lot closer…
One can hope, right?
J
Nice math - poor conclusion
I don’t know if it is fair to give Simms an F based on half a game played but even if it is, it seems like a fault in the evaluation breakdown that you would conclude the team would enjoy an overall improvement by dumping a player. Perhaps they are no worse off without Simms but better?
Addition by subtraction...
Not only is he a terrible player (or at least was for us), but the secret is out. There’s no getting around the fact that anyone you’d ask at the Broncos facility or Denver in general would remember/know how he midas touched us a pair of games that turned to poo.
Personally I’d like him to get a job at ESPN as Gruden’s personal assistant….. Yes. That would make for great television.
J
that seems so rediculous
he threw four passes the ONLY game he prepared for as the starter. It actually seemed to me and to the announcers at the time like a very poor coaching move pulling him so quickly. How do you name a guy starter, let him prepare all week and then pull him so quick? They didn’t know what to expect? Ya gotta protect the RIGHT side of a lefty RIGHT? We didn’t. He got kilt.
Meanwhile back at the ranch…. Simms has to go!
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 26, 2010 5:39 PM MST up reply actions
Different Midas
midas touched us a pair of games that turned to poo
I think that’s the Midas’ horse touch – everything turns to horse poop.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
Weighted Grades.
I don’t take the back-up to be equal in value to the starter (instead I roughly value the latter twice as much as the former) and I’d stop short of giving Simms an F. In fact, I’d say the position is closer to a B- than a C…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Nice One!
I encourage all of you, especially those particularly interested in the offseason, to go back to this step in the process and become reacquainted with the foundation of our team. It feels as though, with every mock draft and all the other rumored roster moves, we become further detached from that which should most inform and temper our speculation.
Wise words indeed, no way you can see where you are going without knowing where you are!
Rec’d!
Wow, excellent job EJ
we need some serious help in the trenches.
by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 26, 2010 12:11 PM MST reply actions
Yeah...
I was taken aback by that as well, especially as a guy who had been all but convinced that ILB and WR were legitimate priorities at the moment!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Amazing read, really nice.
I really think Tony Carter played very well when called upon towards the end of the season. He’s definately going to get a better look this year.
I also agree about ayers; he didn’t get any sacks but he did create pressure on numerous occasions. I also thought he set the edge well in the running game sometimes.
Average Raider Fan's IQ = 89
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Find yours by clicking here.
Nice work EJ
You hit everything very well and we are an average team at best for the moment. I am really looking forward to this draft now that McDaniels has a year under his belt. Like Sayre said above, we do need some serious help in the trenches. Depth is what we need to have for next season.
Floyd Little: HOF Class of 2010.
2009 NBA Champions L.A Lakers
2009 NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant
Draft #2.
I think it’s understated that this is the first time McDaniel and Xanders have a full year together at their respective positions and with this roster. I have to believe that this draft will tell us much more about the state and direction of this franchise than anything that happened last offseason…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Maybe a dumb question
but what is “E” in ERFA?
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed." - Michael Jordan
"To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift." - Steve Prefontaine
RIP BARREL MAN
Exclusive
ERFA is different from RFA. ERFA means Exclusive Rights Free Agent. In the case of Josh Barrett, he can either agree to our tender if we offer him one, or he can sit out the season. The Broncos can let him walk if they want. Essentially, any player with 2 years of experience or less whose contract has expired is assigned the ERFA status.
by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 26, 2010 1:17 PM MST up reply actions
Thank you!!
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed." - Michael Jordan
"To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift." - Steve Prefontaine
RIP BARREL MAN
HAHA hopefully!
It’d be good to keep him around…
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed." - Michael Jordan
"To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift." - Steve Prefontaine
RIP BARREL MAN
Pretty fair assessment I'd say
I can’t really argue any one position grade that would make it look better or worse. Now with last years rookies moving into a second year one could predict at least half a step up in each category. The OL is the place I’d really be focused on making a bigger improvement as this time, they need to be a B+ or better for the team to really compete. Right now they grade out as a D, not a very good showing at all.
"A great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do" Walter Gagenot
"Hope sees the invisible, feels the intangible and achieves the impossible."
OL
No matter what their philosophy is, every franchise worth their salt places a premium on talent along the offensive line. We really need to stabalize those positions if we expect to contend ever again!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Good job EJ. Rec'd.
I think the O Line is a little better than a D but other than that I think you are spot on. Question, has anyone ever thought about Kuper at Center?
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
Hmmm...
I hadn’t considered the possibility of moving Kuper to center, but I fear that may be creating a void to fill another. He’s our only acceptable interior lineman at the moment, so he’s fine where he is unless he’s better at center…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Great stuff man
I would’ve had to grade the quarterback situation at B even if we cut Simms, but I like your honesty, as I would have been lying to myself thinking it’s okay only having two QB’s on the roster. I learned from my theory on only keeping two QB’s for better roster depth, isn’t a great idea, even though Alphonso Smith played some quarterback, and I know we’ve got a few other guys, who could do a pretty worthy job if they had to, that are currently on the roster… Good ol’ Eddie can throw the rock pretty well too. Great post, thank you.
First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot ( =
by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Feb 26, 2010 1:05 PM MST reply actions
Simms.
I didn’t mind his signing last year, but I think we’re better off with someone better in his place. There are plenty of interesting FA out there that could do the job and, of course, a high ceiling rookie would be an interesting addition to the position as well…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
If all else fails (meaning KO)
Brandstater carries Us.
First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot ( =
by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Mar 8, 2010 1:47 PM MST up reply actions
Fooballa 303 "E"
stands for “exclusive rights” restricted free agent. Which I believe means that Exclusive-Rights Free Agents are players who have completed between 0-2 accrued seasons of service whose contracts have expired. If tendered, they have no negotiating rights with other clubs and must sign their tender with their old club or sit out the season. I would expect Josh Barrett to be tendered this year so that we can hold on to him he made solid contributions last year.
How do tight ends get a A+ when all they do is block and catch screen passes.
With exception of the SD game last season when Tony had a big game I would say that the TE position was underwhelming last season. Tony will be gone next season and Dick Quinn is a huge ?. I do like Dan Graham he is a really good TE. You are right on about Aryers though I hope he gets to start and plays alot next season.
TE
Whether or not they are asked to catch the ball, it’s clear that they can (all of them, in fact) and they can do it well. As for the blocking, even Scheffler’s improved in that respect and Quinn is on his way to the rarified heights of Graham’s prowess at that. There’s a nice spread of experience and skillsets at the position, so I fail to see what’s not to like…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Great job, and I rec'd it
Very good, very thorough. I like seeing your perspective.
Although it’s true that I’m bigger on Ayers than some, it comes from seeing his development over the season and his QB hurries. firstfan is right – he looked lost, early on. That’s not exactly new for rookies, 1st round or not. The issue that I had was whether or not that declines as the season wore on. The answer was that he seemed to be one of the few who played better at the end than at the beginning, and I give him credit for that. There’s no question that he’s a work in progress, but you could easily see the progress. That was what I liked about him.
I’m not sure that D+ is a fair grade for Fields and Co. Fields played well for most of the season. y impression became that Denver had more trouble with the ILBs than I think you allowed for. Please let me also say that this is arguable and difficult to quantify. The film I watched showed that the NT and LDE positions usually graded out pretty well. We had more problems on RDE and with the LBs on the running game. Thomas caught a lot of flack, but he also did some very good things. He is the classic lighter, penetrating single gap NT. He was too often washed out on running plays, and that was certainly an issue. Like many, I’d like to see him at RDE, bringing that bigger body to the edge where he will draw double teams a little less and can use his quickness to push the pile toward the QB and let the OLB do his Doomsayer thing.
Those issues aside – I love a well-organized, carefully thought out presentation, and this surely qualifies. Thanks – I look forward to the rest of your work!
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
I agree totally with your assessment wheere most will stomp their feet and disagree vehemently!
I’m not sure that D+ is a fair grade for Fields and Co. Fields played well for most of the season. y impression became that Denver had more trouble with the ILBs than I think you allowed for. Please let me also say that this is arguable and difficult to quantify. The film I watched showed that the NT and LDE positions usually graded out pretty well. We had more problems on RDE and with the LBs on the running game. Thomas caught a lot of flack, but he also did some very good things. He is the classic lighter, penetrating single gap NT. He was too often washed out on running plays, and that was certainly an issue. Like many, I’d like to see him at RDE
And the fact that Dumervil, Ayers and Haggan all had to learn a different scheme they put most of their learning effect towards the pass rush in which they faired better than expected. Where their troubles begin is in pass coverage and run stooping and some of that can be blamed on Nolan’s play calling (maybe not to showcase their inabilities to cover in space). Dumervil IMO had more difficulty in coverage than Haggan did and again probably because of the learning part. Ayers on the other hand displayed the physicality necessary for his role and improved with each week. I would give this group a C overall
Thomas would be a better fit on RDG IMO too, and with the development of Fields and Baker at the NT position this might be a more popular move that Martindale could look more closely at. Most of our running woes were on the DE, OLB and iLB side. If their one thing that irritates more it’s safeties making tackles on run plays 20 yards down field and most of this blame lies squarely on the shoulders of thise three. If there isn’t significant upgrade at thise three positions then the defense will continue to struggle in the run. It’s not the NT that needs immediate attention…Take a closer look folks.
Great write up & analysis EJ
I’m in Emmett’s camp on the D-line, however. My understanding of the defense that we were running was that the line was supposed to tie up the blockers and allow the LBs to make the plays.
In the first half of the season, we can see that this was happening — as the LBs had significantly more tackles than the d-line did. In the second half of the season we can see a marked rise in the number of tackles made by d-linemen while the LB’s production fell noticeably. That suggests to me that the LB’s were missing their assignments, and the d-line had to make up for it.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
by BShrout on Feb 26, 2010 4:30 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Ayers and the DL
I agree with you that Ayers’ progression spoke as much for him as his performance did. I now really like his potential in our scheme and look forward to continued improvement towards that ultimate ceiling.
As for the DL, I agree that our guys did much better than expected and that some of our troubles on that side of the ball were actually on other units. That said, I’m not sure that the individual subgroups are all that strong as presently constructed. Maybe if we had a more classic, double-team demanding NT – allowing for guys like Thomas and Fields to move over to DE – the whole line would look that much better and the potential/performance of the D would be elavated as a whole. We may not need new guys all along, but rather just a key addition that would allow us to restructure it more appropriately.
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Fantastic work EJ!
Rec’d and very well done!
"Precipitation, which side are you on?
Are you on the rise? Are you falling down?
Let me know, Come on let's go, yeah
Got some if you need it!" -EV
Good grasp of the variables
I don’t disagree with your grades. You, however, also indicated IMO how many variables we’re dealing with.
For instance, IMO the OL had two very weak links, which destroyed its effectively, especially as the season progressed. Not only were they weak links but they negatively affected the play of the other three who tried to compensate which is difficult in a sport and on a unity that relies heavenly on coordinated teamwork and where all make each better.
One of those weak links is gone, the other is a ??
The other three starters are largely regarded as OK. And IMO fixing the weak links will make them better as well.
The best way to replace those weak links is full of variables – ie sign two of the best UFAs (expensive and short term), fill both from the draft (not a quick fix perhaps, but long term effective), rely on developing backups (hard to evaluate unless you’re coaching them) or a combination of the above.
The same type of thing can be said for the Defensive front. There are some interesting UFAs, some interesting draft prospects and some developing backups.
I’m inclined to look first at developing backups. I don’t know enough about some of them but my impression is that there are some possibilities among the backups both on offense (Seth Olsen, Dustin Fry, D’Anthony Batiste, Matt McChesney, etc.). One or more might just fill a spot more than adequately.
The same applies to the defense (i.e. Chris Baker, Everette Pedescleaux, Carlton Powell, J’Vonne Parker, Thomas Marcus).
It may be that we’ll see noticeable improvement in both units just from the current roster.
Consequently, it’s possible that one UFA or draft OL and one UFA or draft DL might improve both units dramatically. That is especially true when one remembers that both units are deeply dependent on each other for coordination and effective teamwork.
However, supplementing that from the draft (I don’t see much potential help from the FA market, unfortunately) could both add depth and improve the units even more.
IMO just the addition of one of the oft mentioned lupati, Bulaga, or Pouncey on offense (there are others I like as well) or Cody or Cam Thomas on defense (I see NT as the best place to begin on the DL and see no UFA being available) might make more difference than we might expect.
That said, I however also believe that you do not disregard a unique talent if they fall to you. For instance, I see Suh, Berry, McCoy, McClain and Okung as the unique talents in this draft. If one is available at #11, you don’t pass them because you have a bigger need. Unique talents are the foundation for Super Bowl champions and you can never find enough of them.
by ivanthenotsobad on Feb 26, 2010 1:53 PM MST reply actions
Agreed.
I talked a little about this line of thinking in a comment above, but it is absolutely true that some of the units I divided out are more interconnected than that and an improvement in one may well impact several others. With McDaniels’ interest in versatility, that may be even more true for us than the average team…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Feel the same about our QBs
I don’t share the general apprehension about our QB situation that is expressed by many.
First of all, the Bronco system is difficult to assimilate in less than two years.
Secondlly, you don’t judge a QB by his first performance under pressure (Brandstater in his first pre-season start and Simms filling in for the injured Orton)
Thirdly, Both Simms and Brandstater are regarded as smart, agile and athletic. And both have strong arms.
I actually expect both to be back next year and to look good enough to start a QB controversy. Simms biggest problem is not his lack of ability or potential IMO (I expect he will show much improvement in the system next year and no panic lapses). His biggest liability is his contract. If he goes, IMO that will be the reason.
Brandstater is regarded as smart (got a Masters during his five years at college) athletic, agile, elusive and having a strong arm. We saw the arm in his second game. Unless he is a football idiot, I suspect that he will move to number two (probably this year) and become the starter fairly soon.
IMO the other hype about interest in QB is to influence the draft strategy of others.
by ivanthenotsobad on Feb 26, 2010 2:03 PM MST reply actions
Time To Develop!
I agree 100% that we need more patience when it comes to ultimately grading this team and especially some of the positions specifically, like QB. These guys are learning new systems, some yet another in a long string over the last few years…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Overall a very good summary
My opinion: Fullback – I agree, even though those two are effective ST’s players. I would rate DT and OLB at C – Minus. J’Vonne Parker and Jarvis Moss need to be replaced. Returner has to be a D and we definitely need to improve the Return blocking to help that. Royal should not be returning punts.
Rec’d EJ.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Return specialist?
Did anybody notice that the Chargers did not tender Sproles? That means he instantly becomes an UFA does it not? He would be a huge upgrade for our return game me thinks. Anybody have any thoughts on rather the Broncos will go after him?
He might be too expensive
I hear he wants starting RB money (or better). I wonder what the economy will do to some of these players salary expectations. I understand the reasoning to go after top dollar, but what would their ego accept?
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Fair Enough
Parker hasn’t had a chance to prove himself either way, but Moss has certainly worn out his welcome. I’d be lower on Royal as the return man if he wasn’t so spectacular at it!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
J'Vonne Parker was injured
J’Vonne Parker spent most of the year injured. He may be a dud, but the jury should still be out on him.
by ivanthenotsobad on Feb 26, 2010 2:21 PM MST reply actions
You're right ivan
ALL the Rookies and PS players should be given a little bit of a flyer just because we don’t exactly know how they fit in with McX’s plans. But that position (DE) could still be upgraded.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
excellent post, I love being able to break it down and grade by position
I agree for the most part with your grades… your Safety analysis is one I’m not so sure about. Maybe it’s more the quality of the talent available that i’m seeing but I don’t trust our youngsters to start just yet and honestly I saw BDawk outran over and over again…. (I know I’ll hear it over that one…)
Absolutely agree at QB. We MUST pick up a #2 QB! I’ll go with your carefully worded Orton analysis but Bstater is no #2 and Simms must go. (we can’t use a lefty) I hope we pick a guy late to compete for #3 as well.
Safety and QB
As long as Dawkins isn’t epected to do that much in coverage, especially in man (think of Lynch’s later years) he can still be a force; with how impressive Hill was as the other safety, I have no doubt that we can get away with that. I was actually amazed by McBath when he filled in for BDawk, as well as with Bruton’s special team work and Barrett’s TE coverage. As for QB, I’m with you damn near 100%.
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
E.J., I am with you on almost all of this.
Here are my thoughts.
1. Respectfully, giving our cornerbacks a “C” does not make much sense to me. Sure, we have little depth but our two starters are, as you said, perhaps the best in the NFL. Surely an A or B is warranted. It is almost like giving the Patriots a “C” at QB because they don’t have depth there. If you are basing this on the fact that we resurrected Ty Law to play nickel corner then I kind of see what you mean. The absence of a nickel corner should not effect it that much though. What are your thoughts?
2. I think you inflated our TE’s a bit. I am super excited about the prospects of Quinn and I think he will do well but he is virtually unproven. Scheffler is likely gone. That leaves us with Graham, who is a stud. However, I wonder about Graham starting to falter. He appeared to be inconsistent with blocking and receiving last year (my opinion only). I would still give him a high rating though. Long story short, if you come up with A+ for an unproven TE, a TE who is likely on his way out, and a TE whose skills may be dissipating but is still effective, then I think you are off a little. I would say B+.
3. It is hard for me to give a B+ to running backs when we didn’t have a 1000 yard rusher and we averaged so few yards per carry, not to mention our injuries at that position. You can blame many of these problems on our offensive line but you can’t grade on the thinking that says something like “we would be great if we had an offensive line.” You did predict the drafting of Moreno and I have faith in him. The bottom line for me is this, Moreno will be a solid #1. Buckhalter can be a solid #2 but his injuries prevent us from banking on him. We need to draft a RB. Therefore, this evaluation is based almost exclusively on Moreno, who didn’t gain a 1000 yards. Average. In my opinion, a “C.”
4. I pretty much agree with everything else you said. You seem to error on the side of drafting players who battle in the trenches first, and I am with your philosophy there. I am curious to see a Broncos Mock from you. By the way, do you agree with me that McClain and Bryant will likely not be available?
CB, TE, RB and the Draft
In today’s NFL, you can’t just have two useable CB, even if they’re exceptional. They also happen to be quite veteran. Depth at that position, for those two reasons, is even more important thatn elsewhere. Maybe I overstated our strength at TE (though I’d keep them in the A-range for sure) but that’s because I see Graham as the total package, have to consider Scheffler staying and think Quinn is the next Daniel Graham. All in all, we have a ton of depth and versatility at TE as of right now. As for RB, I think the whole 1,000 yard rusher is overdone. I rather have multiple guys carrying the ball further (as was the case with Moreno and Buckhalter) combined, as it means we have redundancy in starter quality and can likely keep fresh legs out there more often. Finally, I would be surprised if McClain is there at #11 and I’m not sure that Bryant will be there either. I’ll be working on my own mocks again when we work through the live interactive one and the analysis thereof!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
I found this on McClain
It really did make me think. It was clear from this set of clips that he has some serious weaknesses that might take him out of value as a first rounder. Take a look here and let me know what you think – his issues in coverage and with tackling looked to be substantial
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
Overrated.
I always worry about individual prospects in elite units being overrated and McClain could certainly be an example of that phenomenon. That said, he has all the tools and most of the skills that lend themselves to the kind of potential that makes for early draft picks. I am certainly not on his bandwagon and would wonder why a team interested in him wouldn’t be more inclined to target Brandon Spikes to fill the same need later in the draft…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
What?
It is hard for me to give a B+ to running backs when we didn’t have a 1000 yard rusher
I would consider one 947 yards rusher (Moreno) plus one 642 yards rusher (Buckhalter) better than a single 1000 yards rusher.
We were 18th in rushing last year.
I will stand by my comments. If being 18th out of 32nd is a B+ for you, then I wish I attended your school. I would have had better grades! (:
While I would agree that our running game needs to step it up signficantly
We need to keep in the back of our minds how relative, NFL rankings are.
At 1836 rushing yards, we were ranked 18th.
However, we were only 40 yards short of being in the top 15, and 196 short of being in the top 10.
Just saying.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
Good points, Brian
A couple of points on the running game – Moreno had 213 yards receiving for Denver as well and Buck added 240 more. That’s a very respectable yards from scrimmage, even if it’s not top 10.
Didn’t I see a number this past week that Moreno was hit behind the line on something like 40% of his runs? I understand not piling on the Oline, but you have to give the man credit for something – he was rarely hit for a loss and always managed to fall forward. If you’re playing the running game with the opposing D in your backfield, it’s not the running back. I know that Moreno also struggled with the one-cut ZB scheme – it is utterly counter-intuitive for the game that he had in college. Prior to Denver drafting him, I was worried about that if we took him.
Reading an article of Mike Lombardi’s in which he explains how certain schemes work for different players, he used Miani and Ronnie Brown as an example. The rest is from my old article:
Brown is more of a big nickel back who needs space and seams to make him most effective. The wildcat benefits him because, by the nature of the spread, there are seams, and he can use his speed to make plays. He’s not a yards-after-contact kind of back and he’s not the type who is better on his 18th carry than his first, a trait that all great backs must have — the ability to wear down a defense. "
What’s most interesting about this discussion is how few people have this knowledge. Ronnie Brown is a good back, but he’s not a good fit for this system and that makes for problems on both sides. Most people tend to see a back (or any player) as ‘good’ or ‘bad’ but generally don’t grasp the little points, the specifics of what exactly make a back successful and what will and won’t work for him at the next level or with a particular team.
That’s particularly true of the Denver rushing attack, which combines a one-but approach with a zone blocking scheme, and is unique in the NFL. Between SWG and myself, we once gave about 8-10 points on what precisely Denver needs from a back to be successful. Some of them were probably surprising to some folks – having a ton of success often makes backs poor choices for Denver, because to work in this offense you have to trust the line, trust the system, put a lot of what you’ve always done out the window and let the system work for you. Great vision in a limited space and the ability to make ONLY a single cut are necessities. There’s a lot more to it, of course, but it’s worth reading this post and then thinking about it.
I’ve thought that Rashad Jennings could be a near perfect fit, which is unusual for a back taken in the first three rounds. There are several others, mostly later in the draft. I don’t know that Moreno is a good fit for the system. They could change things to suit him, and they might do that. I’m certainly not opposed to the idea – he’s an unusually good player. I think that if they take him, they will be convinced that he can learn to unlearn a lot of what made him both unique and successful, and that would permit him to become very successful in a totally different system, a different way of doing things.
Since McD is going to a different scheme that may be much more appropriate for Moreno (Which makes sense, since KM was his first draft pick), I expect that KM, is he stays healthy, will progress significantly in the next two seasons. He needs a different offense to bring into play the skills that he demonstrated in college and it’s good that he’s getting that offense installed. He ought to become increasingly productive – and yes, I think that we need to improve the line dramatically for him to produce at his best level.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
by Doc Bear on Feb 26, 2010 10:22 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Video
I noticed that I had a draft prep video on Knowshon and another of that incredible leap over the defender
Prep Video
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
didn't realize we were that good.... or that bad in this league ...is really bad!
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 27, 2010 2:07 AM MST up reply actions
This is my point on all kinds of things "fans" tend to write
Folks always see the negative things on their teams… and the positive things on other teams. It skews most analysis to the point of meaningless-ness, and is why advanced stats and more detailed scouting of multiple teams are so useful. MHR is great on a lot that, but if I wasn’t hanging out at FootballOutsiders to hear about other teams, my guess is I’d have a much more biased view (and I don’t listen to other teams fans views of Denver, because they don’t know what we know).
For example, many non-MHR folks look at our OTs and say, “wow, what a great o-line and pro-bowl WR… the QB and RBs only produced average results however… therefore Orton sucks and Moreno was a disappointment.” I’m not sure that is the analysis I would give watching our interior line get blown up play after play….
Plus our expectations of what is “good” are also horribly warped by the best players in the NFL, which contributes to the “savior” mentality about new players, draftpicks, etc. For example, Orton threw for 3800 yards last year… yet folks are convinced he sucks because he’s not an All-Pro? The chances of a new QB being better than Orton are low, because he’s already “above average”… that means exactly what you it says… even if you beat the odds in the draft and select a starting caliber player, they are STILL more likely to be WORSE than better than what we already have. Sure, if you see someone who is an all-pro type guy you can roll the dice to improve, but the typical case would be to get worse, not better… its much easier to build depth and focus on the below average areas.
For this reason, I also think we need a big draft at CB… yes, Champ and Goodman played great… but “on average”, players in their 30s players tend to hit a wall. Either one or both of them could go from good last year to replacement level overnight (see Weigman, Casey)… Now if/when that happens, what would we have? Yes… I think that is scary too, especially since our top backup (Law) is even older than our starters.
As such, about the only positions I see us as even relatively set are 1) Safety (young, quality backups) and perhaps TE (though losing scheffler, as seems likely, would downgrade that). RB is okay, but I don’t trust Buck/Hillis to stay healthy/perform, so even there depth could be helpful.
However, even with all that, I think this team is probably average overall… because EVERY TEAM except the very best have similar problems.
Perception.
I agree with you on the fact that our perceptions can be molded without our knowledge or consent. We need to be critical, but constructive… objective, but not detached. These are difficult tasks for us fans, but they’re necessary if we’re interested in the truth!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Rushing Offense.
Much like team wins and QBs, I’ll never understand why people put the burden of rushing yards on the runningbacks. So much more than RB quality goes into rushing attacks that such stats fail to capture. I have to believe that the weakness of our offensive line (especially after Harris’ and other injuries) hurt much more than any other…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
I loved it that someone (BShrout) found a site
that included how many times the RB was hit behind the line. Since Moreno was hit there around 40% of the time, why are we not singing his praises for pushing 1000 as part of a rotation? He had some issues early on, but really improved over the course of the year. Sure, his ypc wasn’t as good as we’d like – see above. Our OL has some ‘issues’ to work out.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
Indeed!
I think Knowshon had his growing pains, but he was still an impressive contributor for the team and I only expect his production to increase as he gains experience and the team around him gets even better!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Excellent Post
Great reading, quite enjoyable.
by Bronco79 on Feb 26, 2010 4:04 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Logan Mankins
He came up in my research of McDaniels Draft Profile(hint of a post coming in the near future lol) and the guy is pretty damn good. He played OT in college, but wasn’t quite quick enough for the outside at the pro level. However, the Patriots thought he was a perfect Guard prospect. So much so that they drafted this 3rd round projected OT #32 overall in the 2005 NFL draft….B.B., McD, and the rest of the Patriots staff struck pay dirt. Can’t believe he is being allowed to enter FA…go get ’em McX!!!
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
Wow...a C for the best Pass Defense in the League?
Oh wait, the CB’s got burned by JAMARCUS RUSSELL in the final two minutes AT HOME. Uhg.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
Yeah...
That grade was more about depth and how it’s magnified at the position for various reasons, but that game is a cause for concern for more than just the D…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Great evaluation
Agree with your evaluation of the QB position. The lack of a quality backup QB arguably cost the team a playoff berth. A good backup leads the team to a win over the Redskins and is able to play until Orton’s injury doesn’t effect his mobility and overall level of play. The same thing happened in Chicago, after KO severly injured his ankle on a freak play against the Lions. Grossman was horrible and Orton was rushed back after only one game.
The QB is the most important position and McD needs to sign a veteran backup. Imo, Tom B isn’t nearly ready to step in and hold things together if Kyle goes down.
to be fair...
… only the coaches know if TB is ready to step in as backup. We here at MHR and everyone else outside of Dove Valley have no freakin clue about TB’s readiness to step in if Orton goes down.
Back-up QB
Orton, tough as he is and much as I like him, is a bit fragile; if we’re going to stick with him and continue to develop Brandstater as I hope we do, then we better invest on a quality back-up to place between them…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Final note
McD said today that he was hope that Brandstater develops sufficiently well this offseason to challenge Orton in TC and that they didn’t draft him to be a backup. That doesn’t exactly mesh with what old Woody Paige said last week, but we should know better than to listen to Woody anyway ;-). It’s nice to hear news of Brandstater, even something as ‘loose’ as McD’s comments. By the way, McD did expect Orton to keep his job and to develop this offseason as well, but it was still good news on TB.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
Good News Indeed.
I am probably the biggest supporter of Kyle’s out there outside of the Orton family, but I feel it’s warranted by his actions both on and off the field. As for our Tom B., it would be great to see him so far along that the staff feels as though he’s a legitimate starting option (however much of a longshot he may be) at this early stage in his career. That said, adding even more to the mix at the game’s most important individual position may be a good idea regardless, so long as it doesn’t interfere with our ability to improve the team where it needs it most…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Wow Really nice rating system!!
CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
I loved your breakdown.
That’s the first time I’ve seen it layed out that way. This is most helpful in trying to determine how to proceed in FA and the draft, whether or not one would agree with your grades (most of which I think are in the ballpark). While any grades we assign to players are speculation, and most casual observers will have at least some feel for performance and ability, the true tale will be told by what Josh & co. choose to do over the next two months.
QB – I agree with your grade. The Ortmeister earned himself another go round, and is essentially the only starting caliber player on the roster. I’d love to see him pick up some small moves within the pocket and a little more composure. Next years performance will decide if he has a long term future as the starter. I feel that bringing in another vet as a backup would be a step back, as he’d have to learn the system from scratch. I’m hoping that Brandstater can prove himself a reasonable #2 in camp.
RB – KnoMo and Buck are solid. Depth could be needed for injury insurance, and a change of pace burner would be a nice luxury. I hope Hillis can hang on, and improve his blocking. I still love seeing him 1 on 1 against safeties in the second level.
FB – Will we have one?
WR – I’ll call the grade incomplete until the Marshall plan is known. Late round sleepers sound good if he’s to stay around.
TE – While the roster looks solid, A+ seems a bit much, but I can’t wait to see what Branson has to offer.
OT – While the starters are pro bowl caliber, depth is desperately needed six months ago.
OG – Your assessment is dead on. Fix that leak!
C – McD seems to know something we don’t.
DE/DT – In one of my few, inane posts around mid season, I was calling for Thomas to get a real shot at DG. I can’t give a grade without knowing what is waiting in the wings. I’ve never known so little about, yet had so much hope for a group of players. What Josh decides to do, here, will tell us all a lot.
OLB – I have a lot of hope for Ayers. How long will it take Reid to be 100%? Depth is needed.
ILB – I was calling for a dominant force, here, looong ago. This was a large part of the breakdown in run D. McClain would look awesome next to DJ, but trading back could bring great value. Either way, I’ll be very sad if help isn’t brought in.
CB – The present is solid, but the future won’t be saved by trudging accross the tundra to “St. Alphonzo’s Pancake Breakfast”. (I couldn’t resist the Frank Zappa quote.) What we saw from Carter was interesting, and this next camp will say a lot about the Phonze, but quality help should be forthcoming.
S – Very solid, but developmental prospects are always welcome.
K – Good.
P – Colquitt should have won the job coming out of the gates, last year.
LS – Paxton is great, but….WHAT THE HELL WAS WRONG WITH MIKE LEACH, YOU BOOB?! Sorry, I’ve been holding that one in for a long time.
RS – We’ll have one.
Loved it, ej!
"People who live in glass houses...shouldn't."
EVERYONE: APOLOGIES
I had computer-related issues that kept me from addressing your comments earlier; I apologize for that and hope to continue the conversation now!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
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