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Around SBN: Jon Jones, Rashad Evans Reignite Rivalry

2010 NFL Draft Watch: Defensive Tackles (part 2)


As I stated in PART ONE, a full analysis can get very lengthy so I have had to split this into two parts.  This will focus on the guys in the 3rd - 5th rounds.  Hopefully we can find a gem or two in there that fit the Broncos' plans.  I promise, this will be the last time I infringe on your patience and split up the project.  I will force myself next time to KISS -- Keep It Simple, Stupid.  Also, be sure to check our Vortex's excellent post in a similar vein, for another set of eyes.

Now to address a couple points of confusion: First of all, I want to reiterate what my goal is here, which I initially described in the Introduction.  I want to look at each of these players with a Bronco filter, evaluating them for their potential fit into McDaniels & Co.'s plans for the team.  That means, for example, this will NOT be an evaluation of how Player X fits into a 3-4 defensive scheme, or an evaluation of how much skill/potential Player X has.  It will rather be primarily a look at how Player X fits into the mold that Josh McDaniels and his staff have made it clear they are looking for.  I will take the player's fit in a 3-4 defense or Amoeba offense into consideration, but I will not use that as my primary determinant.  I am not interested in making a Big Board... yet.

Second, I want to clarify why I have classified the players into the position categories I have.  I am considering each player at their listed position (according to NFLdraftscout.com), and will note in the write-up what position they would play for the Broncos.  Strictly speaking, in a 3-4 defense the only DTs I would consider would be NT prospects, while several guys listed at DT would actually be DGs.  This is to alleviate confusion -- if you want to find out what I think of Player X, rather than speculate on where I think he will fit in you can just look him up and then locate the corresponding write-up I've done on that position.

Finally, thanks for the positive comments.  They are greatly appreciated, since it tells me that this is not just an exercise in futility for my own sake.  Thank you also for the negative comments.  I want to improve this by checking my opinion against others', and that is why I have made some changes already.

So, here is a cheat sheet, and happy reading!

PROSPECT NAME RATING BEST FIT
Gerald McCoy 5 stars 3-tech LDG
Arthur Jones 4.5 stars 3-tech LDG
Mike Neal 3.5 stars 3-tech LDG
Boo Robinson 3 stars 3-tech RDG
Geno Atkins 2.5 stars 3-tech RDG
D'Anthony Smith 2 stars 3-tech RDG
Earl Mitchell 2 stars 3-tech RDG
Tyson Alualu 5 stars 5-tech LDG
Jared Odrick 4.5 stars 5-tech LDG
Corey Peters 4.5 stars 5-tech LDG
Lamarr Houston 4 stars 5-tech LDG
Ndamukong Suh 5 stars 5-tech RDG
Brian Price 4 stars 5-tech RDG
Vince Oghobaase 3.5 stars 5-tech RDG
Terrell Troup 4.5 stars NT
Dan Williams 4 stars NT
Cam Thomas 3.5 stars NT
Terrance Cody 2.5 stars NT

Star-divide

Tyson Alualu  (6-2, 291 lbs)  California, #44

Projected pick: 3rd round

Scout.com: 4-star prospect

Ncf_i_alualu2_sw_600_medium

via a.espncdn.com

It is nearly impossible to say too much about this guy's character on the football field:

High-intensity player who plays with reckless abandon. Seems to enjoy the physical aspect of the game and is willing to throw his body into the pile. Team captain. Given the team's Brick Muller Award as the defensive line MVP the past three years. Played in all 51 games of his career. Earned Joe Roth Award for best exemplifying courage, attitude and sportsmanship

Besides that, he has played 3-4 DE all through college.  The ratings on Alualu are all over the map, ranging from 1st-round material to 4th round.  Here's a fascinating set of facts: In 2009, Alualu got a school-record 62 tackles at Cal.  Whose record did he beat?  None other than current Washington Redskin (and Denver-born) Andre Carter, who was drafted 7th overall in 2001.  Why the discrepancy in projections?  Ultimately, due to the inherent bias for pass-rushers.  While Alualu is competent in this department (3.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks), he got what he did mostly on sheer effort.  His strength is vs. the run, where he has excellent recognition and above-average pursuit.

Let's see: intense, physical, team leader who is a run-stopping 3-4 DG (most likely 5-tech).  What do you think?

You Tube video

FINAL EVALUATION: 5 stars

 

Mike Neal  (6-3, 293 lbs)  Purdue, #92

Projected pick: 3rd-4th round

Scout.com: 4-star prospect

 Ncf_i_mnealts_300_medium

via a.espncdn.com

The guys at TheNFLDraftSite summarize him pretty well:

He doesn’t necessarily wreak havoc in backfields or tear apart double teams but with a lot of work on technique he will have the ability to plug up running lanes and apply pressure to the quarterback every now and then in the NFL.

Essentially, he is a quality depth player whose strong suit is strength and run support.  He is a bit of a "tweener" for the Broncos' purposes, though: not quite big enough for NT, just shy of athletic enough for DG.  His best fit is in a Tampa-2 type defense; for the Broncos he projects as a 3-4 DG.  His best recommendation is this: "the best thing about him is his tenacity and his hustle on the field" (thefootballfanspot.com).  If we miss out or pass on the top prospects, Mike Neal is a solid pick for us.

FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars

 

Torrell Troup  (6-3, 310 lbs)  University of Central Florida, #98

Projected pick: 3rd-4th round

Scout.com: 3-star prospect

 3121526553_medium

via www.centralfloridafuture.com

One of the things I've discovered doing this series is just how thin the NT position is in this year's draft.  To be fair, that is somewhat typical since a true NT is a very unique blend of height, weight, strength, and conditioning.  Still, there's Cody, Williams, and... and... hmmm...  well, Troup for one.

He was the main reason UCF's rush defense was ranked in the top 5 in the nation, and why the two starting DEs beside him got 24 sacks between them.  Ready for the best part?

Hard-working, unselfish leader with a quiet sensibility. Consistently gives good effort inside whether rushing the passer or stopping the run. No major character issues. Worked off 30 pounds of weight during his career to gain stamina.  [NFLdraftscout.com]

 He is still far from elite, since his production dipped significantly his senior season facing more double-teams (and he's a bit undersized for a NT).  That being said, he fits as arguably the next-best NT after Dan Williams, and a heck of a lot cheaper.

You Tube video

FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars

 

Cam Thomas  (6-4, 331 lbs)  North Carolina, #93

Projected pick: 3rd-4th round

Scout.com: 3-star prospect

 627611_medium

via media.scout.com

Thomas was rated much lower until the offseason.  He impressed in Senior Bowl practices and got a sack in the real thing.  His mediocre production can be easily explained by the system he played in at North Carolina, which emphasized patience, reading the offense, and reacting more than applying heavy pressure.  That's a plus for the Broncos.  He has already played in a 3-4 system, so that's a plus.  Finally, while he is a bit raw and unproven, by all accounts he has plenty of strength to play the NT position for us.  FFtoolbox says this about him:

While the numbers may not be eye popping, Thomas is an experienced defensive tackle who has a great size. Most opposing offensive linemen have a difficult time moving his 6-3, 330 pound frame and that makes it very difficult to run against Thomas. Despite being so large, Thomas is surprisingly athletic and has good footwork

I couldn't find much either overwhelmingly positive or negative about his personal qualities, so I'll call that a wash.  In a draft thin at NT, Thomas is likely to be picked before his talent/production/promise says he should be.  Still, he will come cheaply.  And yes, that is Pat White he is chasing down.

You Tube video

FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars

 

Boo Robinson  (6-2, 295 lbs)  Wake Forest, #96

Projected pick: 3rd-4th round

Scout.com: 3-star prospect

 2008145841_medium

via seattletimes.nwsource.com

Opinions on Boo Robinson are all over the map (Interestingly, his given name is Shaunteryous, an amalgam of his mother's and father's names... just like our own Knowshon).  He posted similar numbers in his first 3 years in college to 1st-round pick Evander "Ziggy" Hood, but had nowhere near the final season Hood did.  That could be attributed to the scheme he was playing in -- an aggressive blitzing type that had just lost Aaron Curry and Alphonso Smith.

While he is listed at 295, he has been as heavy as 340 lbs.  His coaches claim he plays best in the 300-310 range.  That would make him undersized for an NT, but not horrendously so.  The question is, can he keep this up at 310 lbs?

Good initial quickness off the snap. Flashes the burst to slip through gaps and collapse the pocket from the inside... Relatively good agility to break down in space and make the tackle against smaller, quicker athletes. Athletic enough to drop into coverage in this scheme as an occasional zone defender. Cerebral player. Keeps his head up and sniffs out screens and draw plays well. Not an explosive hitter, but can catch runners as they go by inside and shows some burst to close behind the line of scrimmage. Good effort in pursuit

Personally, I think his best bet is as a 3-4 DG in our scheme, due to his lack of serious upper-body strength.  His versatility, agility, intelligence, and awareness are all positives.  He's just stuck in physical no-man's land.

You Tube video

FINAL EVALUATION: 3 stars

 

Vince Oghobaase  (6-5, 305 lbs)  Duke, #3

Projected pick: 4th round

Scout.com: 4-star prospect

  593294_medium

via media.scout.com

Oghobaase is a name showing up on many mock drafts on this site as a late-round value pick.  I'm fine with that evaluation.  Just don't expect him to be the anchor of our defensive line starting next year.  While his athletic ability is fantastic -- 305 lbs and almost all of it muscle/height, he has been plagued by injuries during his career, and like Dan Williams there are questions about his motor/effort:

The only concerns would be his motor which is not always 100%. His stats last year and the impact he had on the team were good, but not great and he’s shown flashes of brilliance which lead me to believe that if is motor is on 100% more he could do some amazing things in the NFL.  [footballfanspot.com]

That caveat being said, he is a disruptive pass-rushing force with excellent upper and lower body strength, good speed, adequate awareness, and a project with great upside as a 5-tech DG.  Since he has played under-tackle, he is also a potential rotational NT on obvious passing downs.  He is not a liability vs. the run, but this is certainly not his strong suit.  Finally, we see this from Scouts, inc.:

A competitor who plays with an edge and doesn't back down from confrontation but appears to wear down at times and lacks ideal endurance

I'm starting to rethink calling the motor of 300+ lb guys into question, since... well, they're over 300 lbs.  Especially in Oghobaase's case, where that is also coupled with positive comments about his intensity.  Still, when you're almost always the best athlete on the field, why the disappointing senior season?  He is an enigma I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to due to his potential role on the line rushing in tandem with Doom.

You Tube video

FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars

 

Corey Peters  (6-3, 295 lbs)  Kentucky, #91

Projected pick: 5th round

Scout.com: 3-star prospect

 Dirty3_medium

via a1.twimg.com

Peters is not on many people's radar, but he might need to be.  His height and weight are good, his speed is adequate, but his best quality is how he continues to gain accolades from his coaches.  In 2007 (soph), he won the Most Improved Defensive Player award.  In 2009 (senior), he won the Most Outstanding Defensive Player award and the Jerry Claiborne award, presented to a senior offensive and defensive player for "academic success and a team attitude".  Peters' high school coach said of him: "Corey is a disciplined, mentally tough player who is very coachable, very attentive, and an excellent student."  Still, something is awry:

Peters is one of the quickest linemen in the SEC, but he has shown a tendency over the course of the year to struggle when engaged with physical interior linemen [draftnasty.com]

But it's hard to argue with his production: 49 tackles, 11 for a loss, 4 sacks.  This is my opinion: Peters is steadily improving, but has had poor coaching on his technique at Kentucky.  Now he gets the chance to learn in the NFL -- and he's smart and a team player.  I think he is a great fit for us as a 5-tech DG.

FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars

 

NOTICEABLY ABSENT

D'Anthony Smith  (6-2, 300 lbs)  Louisiana Tech, #5

Projected pick: 3rd round

Scout.com: 4-star prospect

I almost gave him the benefit of the doubt when I read raves about his "coachability" and "good football intelligence", in addition to accolades for how great of an athlete he is despite his size.  Still, while projected scheme (i.e., 3-4 vs. 4-3) is not the prime metric here, it is still significant.  And, with a prospect like Smith, it is a deal-killer.  Scouts, Inc. says "Will never be a good fit in a two-gap defensive scheme" -- which ours is -- and NFLdraftscout.com concurs:

Doesn't play with the nastiness you'd expect from a defensive tackle. Might lack the intensity and self motivation to maximize his talent

Intriguing, but a raw prospect (played in the WAC) that is a poor fit for us despite his personal qualities.

FINAL EVALUATION: 2 stars

 

Geno Atkins  (6-2, 286 lbs)  Georgia, #56

Projected pick: 3rd-4th round

Scout.com: 4-star prospect

First the positives: Scouts, Inc. -- "Hard worker on and off the field. Very good student... Above-average overall quickness. Does not display elite initial burst, but he shows the consistent ability to penetrate as a 3-technique and also has closing burst to the ball carrier."  Now the negatives: NFLdraftscout.com -- "Short, stumpy defender with limited room for additional muscle mass... Hasn't proven the work ethic or determination to take advantage of his skill set. Seems to have the tools to be a difference-maker, but needs constant prodding from coaches."  He was voted Florida 5-A Defensive Player of the Year his senior year of high school and his sophomore year appeared to be a superstar: 41 tackles, 15 for a loss, and 7.5 sacks -- starting only SEVEN games.  But then the bottom fell out and his last two years were... mediocre, at best.  In 2009, he only started 3 games due to inconsistency.  He would be a good late-round (6th/7th) flier based on talent and smarts, but it's likely some other team more desperate will grab him before then.  Random interesting note: he got a sack in the Senior Bowl... against none other than Mike Iupati

FINAL EVALUATION: 2 1/2 stars

 

Earl Mitchell  (6-1, 289 lbs)  Arizona, #49

Projected pick: 5th round

Scout.com: 3-star prospect 

First the good: he played H-back and TE his first two seasons, then played DT his final season where he excelled -- 48 tackles, 12.5 for a loss, and 6.5 sacks.  Obviously a versatile player.  Now the bad: "He's not too big at 290 pounds, but he can hold his own in a one-gap scheme" [draftcountdown.com].  His strengths are power and leverage.  Unfortunately, we need a guy who can push back instead of just simply hold his ground.  He fits great as a 4-3 DT but is a 3-tech DG for us at best.

FINAL EVALUATION: 2 stars

 

Well, that's the end of the guys listed primarily at DT.  A few links are in order to help solve some confusion you might be having.  If you want to know what the heck a defensive lineman does, and what in the world I mean by 5-technique or 3-technique, I am indebted to Hoosierteacher Steve Nichols for his excellent article DL Gaps and Techniques.  If you wondered why I am using the designation of DG -- defensive guard -- instead of the traditional DE -- defensive end -- I want to direct you to Steve's other great article The Denver Broncos' 5-2 Formation.

As always, the more comments the better.  If there is someone I missed in here and you want to know what I think of him, please let me know and I will dig a little.  Other than that, enjoy! 

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 40 comments  |  12 recs  | 

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Great job again

This is a solid group of guys, and I expect at least one of these players to wind up with this team. My personal favorite is Alualu from Cal, and I have been on his bandwagon since I saw him play Minnesota earlier this season. His motor never stops, and as your report indicated, he is a high character guy. I’d love to see him wreaking havoc on our line.

by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 4, 2010 10:47 AM MST reply actions  

Alualu is my favorite as well

He is a rare player that is already reared in a 3-4, at a position of need, and with a very high-intensity personality. That covers all the selling points.

Personally, I couldn’t care less if he is “overachieving” — so does Bob Sanders.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 2:26 PM MST up reply actions  

Ooof

Another soft spot for an Iowa guy! Gotta love Bob

by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 4, 2010 3:49 PM MST up reply actions  

MMMM Sayre

Don’t we want him wreaking havoc on the other team’s line?

Sorry. Couldn’t resist.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 6, 2010 9:11 AM MST up reply actions  

Rec'd

What I love about your posts, as opposed to majority of others, is the depth you put into them. I, selfishly, only try to project what could happen or what I’d like to happen in Denver in mine. You take the “This is why you may or may not be hearing about this guy, and here is why he does or doesn’t fit in Denver” approach. Very interesting, and obviously love what you have to say about Alualu, Peters, and Troup.

by Vortex7 on Feb 4, 2010 10:52 AM MST reply actions  

Glad you like the depth!

I wish I could find the golden mean between depth and quality. I worry that things of this nature are useful, but run the risk of causing the average reader to shut down. I want to make it accessible enough to JoeBroncoFan and still pass muster from Emmitt, Steve, and the rest.

Still working on that…

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 2:28 PM MST up reply actions  

When in doubt

just break it up… The trick is theming each section for consistency (like DL makes a good theme, but as you have shown, breaking it into multiple parts is very necessary.)

Think of this knowledge like nutrition for the draft-ready brain. There is a time and a place for well spaced meals with rounded out nutritional value, but there is also a time and a place for carb-loading etc….

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's MR.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 4, 2010 2:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Also

It was rude of me, but in reading your post, I completely forgot to thank you for the shout out. Thanks!

by Vortex7 on Feb 4, 2010 6:42 PM MST up reply actions  

You're welcome!

It was well-deserved.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 6:55 PM MST up reply actions  

Great Work

I really like what I saw out of Cam Thomas as NT at the Senior Bowl. I also think as a CFA it would be good to look at Travis Ivey at Maryland or think about him in the 7th round.

Also Lamarr Houston-It seems that he didn’t practice well at the Senior Bowl, and he might not measure well. But sometimes people are just different when they get into live action and this seems to be the case with him. He’s just a baller.

"No more my bad just make the play"-McJedi

by RockyMountainThunder on Feb 4, 2010 10:59 AM MST reply actions  

He did dominate at the Senior Bowl, indeed

I’ll look up Ivey. I also left off some guys like Jeff Owens, Linvall Joseph, Ekom Udofia, Kade Weston, and Al Woods

One guy I’ve got my eye on for next year (assuming we stand pat this year at NT) is Kendrick Ellis from Hampton — 6’5", 340 lbs.

Houston is a baller, no doubt. I graded him as a 4-star fit at 5-tech run-stopping DG. We have to be sure we don’t overpay for him, though — he will take some adjustment and coaching before he can start.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 2:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Awesome Job

I’m all for Alualu…of course, being Hawaiian, I’m a little biased towards other polynesian players.

"I can do all things through HIM who gives me strength"
"Death had a near Chuck Norris experience."

by BroncoCountryHawaii on Feb 4, 2010 12:21 PM MST reply actions  

apologies for my ignorance/insensitivity

But if that group includes players like Maualuga, Polamalu and Iupati, you’ve got good reason to be biased!

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 2:47 PM MST up reply actions  

no worries

no ignorance at all my friend. On a side note, I was stoked when Ma’a Tanuvasa played for the Broncos. My uncle coached him in Pop Warner.

"I can do all things through HIM who gives me strength"
"Death had a near Chuck Norris experience."

by BroncoCountryHawaii on Feb 4, 2010 4:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Great work, Tack

Love this series. As I said on Vortex’ post as well (I hope you guys can hook up, you’re both cranking out some great stuff), I really like the eval vs. mock approach. This is the meat.

Step aside, my friend, I been doin' it for years.
Said sit on down, open ya eyes, say open up ya ears....

by pubkeeper on Feb 4, 2010 12:39 PM MST reply actions  

Glad you like it!

I prefer this to a mock anyway — this is the necessary groundwork for doing a mock (at least, it is for me), and with all the mocks out there I wanted to try something different.

You might say… I wanted to try a different Tack…

(end of world’s worst pun)

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 2:49 PM MST up reply actions  

LOMFL!

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Feb 4, 2010 3:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Great post Sharpe

Very informative. If you get a chance down the road, a player I would like to know more about, is M. Tevaseu from UNLV. He drew rave reviews from Marty Schottenheimer at the East-West shrine game. I can’t find much information on him. Am guessing he will be a CFA. I think his measurables are 6’1-329. Any help would be appreciated.

by rg2247 on Feb 4, 2010 6:21 PM MST reply actions  

Sure! I'll look him up

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 4, 2010 6:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Awesome work!

Although I am kind of indifferent to most players on this list other than Tyson, I really appreciate the amount of effort put into this series.

I do not have a college team that I follow too intently, other than Ol’ Miss and living in CO. does not warrant getting to see too many of their games, so the amount of player knowledge provide is awesome! In particular, how you rate each player in terms of how they might fit with the Broncos scheme.

Obviously after watching any Suh highlights or game footage, every other player just seems to pale in comparison, but I do like what I see in Tyson. A high motor, work ethic and character player that relies more on determination than overall talent or physical attributes would be a steal on the second day.

Lady, you want me to answer you if this old airplane is safe to fly? Just how in the world do you think it got to be this old?
— Anon

Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.
— George Bernard Shaw

by Choochoobonewagon on Feb 5, 2010 12:29 AM MST reply actions  

Email Sent

Don’t know if you got it, but Vortex7 will be in the subject bar.

by Vortex7 on Feb 5, 2010 11:00 AM MST reply actions  

thanks!

got it, sent reply

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 5, 2010 11:49 AM MST up reply actions  

quick comment on organization

I appreciate the hard work putting this together but it became apparent to me that translating positions still leaves some players out. I was just looking at Scott Wright’s site and noticed his recent entry on Alex Carrington, who will/should be on your listing of 5-tech RDGs, but the listing at the top of the page is drawn from DT lists and not a DE list.

I’m not complaining but I was attempting to get an idea of who & where some prospects might fit in and realized that the list was incomplete.

A merged listing of DT and DE lists with the non-3-4s culled out would help. I love the idea of 3-4 prospect list but we’re missing some of the bigger DE34s candidates who are listed as DEs.

Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas State
6-5¼ | 284 | 4.80
Scouting Report

“With so many teams now running a 3-4 defense personnel for that scheme has become much more valuable on Draft Day. One prospect who could benefit is Alex Carrington. A big, strong, powerful five-technique, Carrington enjoyed an eye-opening performance at the Senior Bowl and his stock is now on the rise.”

- Scott Wright

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Feb 5, 2010 10:14 PM MST reply actions  

He's in my DE post

projected as a 5-tech LDG (strongside due to his lack of elite first step and natural run-stuffing skills)

Yeah, I’m going to leave players out no matter what. I’ve resigned myself to that problem, and to keep some semblance of continuity I’m using NFLdraftscout.com’s position designations as a starting point, then an individual analysis to project them into the Broncos scheme.

I could really parse things out if I felt compelled to — DE43, DE34, NT, DT43, OLB34… Those designations, while probably more accurate, run into two problems: 1) they are not as commonly used as DT and DE are, and 2) they seem a bit too dogmatic to ideas about 4-3 vs. 3-4 defenses, and leave out hybrid versions like ours or even Tampa/Cover-2 styles.

But yes — I like Carrington a LOT!

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 6, 2010 12:45 AM MST up reply actions  

it's not a complaint

No disagreement on Carrington’s status as a LDG — it was a semi-arbitrary categorization on my part based on his somewhat greater speed. And it’s still arguable. Holliday is emblematic of the problem. His strength at pass rushing is accompanied by a weakness at run defense. Many (or more) of the DG candidates are going to be LDGs because they lack something at pass rushing, although they’re strong at run defense.

Our best configuration (for downs 1 & 2) may include two LDG types. Very few of the players considered as classic DE34 types are going to be unusually proficient pass rushers. Suh and McCoy are, but we can ignore the exceptions for obvious reasons. I’d be happy if the DL as a whole became more proficient at pass rushing while at the same time maintaining a strong run defense.

A slight segue — I like to see bull rushing ability, since it can create chaos in a disorganized collapse of the pocket. I also like to see technique, such as Dumervil displays. Creating pressure on the QB and disrupting the offense doesn’t have to rely on speed rushing. For this reason, I don’t see DE34s as needing to be specialists in the same way as R-DE43s are. I see utility in having high-motor types like Alualu at RDG even though you’ve classified him as a LDG.

A complete listing of DE34s (DGs) which is culled from the DT and DE listings would help people become aware of all the RDGs candidates. But what has become apparent to me, as I write this, is that the classification of DL34s into LDGs and RDGs tends to adopt 4-3 thinking. There’s a natural cognitive tendency to think that improving our pass rush involves upgrading R-DE with a better pass rusher. There’s a bias towards thinking in terms of specialization as well as one towards native position, which ignores situational assignments. I’ve attempted in the past to apply a corrective by suggesting that we think in terms of collections of attributes. Improving our pass rush doesn’t necessarily involve bringing in pass rushing specialists, it’s more a case of improving overall, which can mean adding number of DL34s who are incrementally better at pass rushing, but it could be accomplished indirectly by improving our run defense.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Feb 6, 2010 2:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Absolutely

And you hit on one of the major areas of weakness/discomfort I have with what I’m doing. I internally fought classifying someone as either “left” or “right” because of the inherent classification bias in doing so. I liked, however, the fairly quick and easy way of distinguishing between “run guys” and “rush guys”.

Now that I’ve finished with the DEs, the problem has become clearer. The perfect example is Robert Ayers. Currently, he is listed as Dumervil’s backup at RDE (weakside OLB in a traditional 3-4). But his strength is run support, not rushing the passer which is usually asked of an RDE. There are two possibilities here: do we get a pass-rushing phenom, put him at RDE as backup/replacement for Doom, then slide Ayers over to LDE (a potentially more natural fit)? Or, do we get a solid run-stopper for LDE and develop Ayers’ pass rush/coverage skills? This allows us the more “balanced” approach you describe.

Ultimately, I went with what I have because I find that while the overall ideal is indeed to have a pass-rush coming from both ends (and run-contain from both as well), there is still a legitimate priority placed on one over the other due to the general character of the rest of the NFL offenses — strongside runs are more common (and more successful in the aggregate) than weakside runs. Thus, while it would be fantastic to exploit a matchup problem by having a less athletic RT be blocking a pass rusher, if there is a run to that side and the player is not stout at the point of attack, has poor awareness, has difficulty disengaging, or has poor tackling form… in short, we’re screwed.

The bottom line is that I hope people will look at the LDG/RDG designations and take them as suggestions — in fact, as precisely what I call them: “best fits”, and not concrete projections.

And once finished, I will indeed post a summary chart organized by position. I may do that in a separate post from the “short board”, or I may do it in the same one. I haven’t quite figured that out yet. In any case, I clearly see the same need you do.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 6, 2010 2:40 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

a digression

I discovered an interesting site that evaluates teams.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/cstats.php?tab=by_team&season=2009&teamid=10&stats=d&stype=r&playerid=

Most of my analysis consists of re-evaluations. I don’t ‘rest’ on past conclusions about the weaknesses and strengths of the team. My only point here is that I’m always willing to take a fresh look at the situation, and the evaluations in the linked site provide just that.

Re: Ayers. I still see a lot of potential that he should realize in time. I’m not sure why people decided that his contribution should be measured solely in sacks. Also, I see room at R-OLB precisely because neither Dumervil nor Ayers provides a complete set of attributes even though both offer a lot in different ways. An added pass rusher who’s also more capable at run defense or pass defense could help compliment existing talent. Situational substitutions allow us to add to our capabilities without having to find the do-it-all type of player. My thinking of late his been drawn to possible late round picks that could help us.

Here’s one (a potential UDFA): Deji Karim

330 25 Deji Karim RB Southern Illinois 5-09 210 same 4.46

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Feb 7, 2010 3:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Great link

Thanks for sharing. It will be interesting to take some time & look to see what it has to say.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 7, 2010 4:43 PM MST up reply actions  

PFF

be sure to read up on how they go about assessing those grades, and be sure you have come to terms with their system and who they have doing it before putting too much stock in the grades.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's MR.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 7, 2010 6:03 PM MST up reply actions  

thanks for adding a disclaimer

I should have added that caveat.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Feb 7, 2010 8:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Interesting

I assume that “forcing” the raw data into a bell curve is your main objection?

If not, I would be very curious. It looks pretty solid to me.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 7, 2010 9:29 PM MST up reply actions  

It is the lack of transparency

there is no way to double check their grading system. I did something similar on MHR a few years ago, called a Comparative Structure (for Broncos only). It is a minefield, and a TON of work. To their credit they are divying up the work load.

One problem with grading each player on a play, is that it is easy to penalize someone for not doing something they were not supposed to do. Sometimes, you can’t even tell exactly what the play was that was being run. When analyzing plays run by Shanny, there were times when I thought I recognized the play, and then realized on the tenth or so viewing that it was some unusual variation of some other play. Without being at Dove Valley HQ, it is debatable how well I could understand just what the purpose of each play was, and who did their jobs. The only solution is to throw out the play and have an incomplete analysis, or risk allowing bias to form the grades. Problem is, you can only throw out so many plays before you don’t have a comprehensive grade that allows comparison from one position to the next.

PFF have some very general statements about how they handle this, and again, to their credit, they acknowledge that the unknowns have to be tossed out. But which ones were unknown? I think they should address this by tracking the data by position for the percentage of each players play they are grading.

Also, some positions are near impossible to grade on a TV broadcast, such as the DBs, or some of the more technical play in the trenches. Their own statements on those matters implies that they would need to throw more than 50% of those players samples out. Not exactly a comprehensive grade.

But I don’t want to give the impression that what they are doing should be dismissed. It is hard work that I have a lot of respect for, and sympathy. Normally I don’t really say much about them, because they are a work in progress, and as such I think the standard for judging their efforts should give them the benefit of the doubt. Mine is not to object, mine is merely to warn….

That is why I say that anyone using them should come to terms with their system. Some people will be fine with it, it gives them what they are looking for (such as comparing QBs, where there is a huge sample size to draw from), while others will be uncomfortable with certain grades for certain players.

My hope for them is that they will allow their process to be more transparent to the inevitable community that is going to be following their work. What they are doing is an unbelievable work load, and by opening up about their system, they would transfer part of that workload to the community, in the form of enforcing objective standards, because that is the crux of their whole purpose and goal. If subjectivity creeps into their grading system it falls apart in an epic fashion.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's MR.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 7, 2010 11:58 PM MST up reply actions  

I should point out

that their Player Participation Logs are worth their weight in gold. They could easily have a worthwhile website if that was the ONLY data they provided, but I certainly admire their desire to shoot for even more…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's MR.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 8, 2010 12:03 AM MST up reply actions  

I can understand and respect that, for sure.

For my part, I come from a field (counseling/psychology) where cumulative statistics are presented all the time without also providing the raw data. I’m used to it; I tend toward that not being an issue.

Even in my field, however, if one is using an assessment tool that is significantly flawed, then one’s results become suspect. In that sense, I certainly understand the reluctance to entirely trust that the persons in question are both 1) qualified and 2) able due to the intrinsic constraints to provide meaningful analysis with good “construct validity” when grading plays using TV broadcasts of games. Essentially, is the thing they use to do the measuring (i.e., their personal observation) actually measuring what it intends to measure (i.e., effectiveness of NFL players) and not something else (i.e., their inherent biases).

I think they acknowledge some degree of subjectivity. I would think that given that, a statement detailing their credentials (apart from a massive amount of free time) would go much further toward easing fears than the raw data would.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 8, 2010 3:13 PM MST up reply actions  

It says...

that Andra Davis was our best player this year (in terms of “doing his job”), followed by Vonnie Holliday. Our worst were Ryan McBean and Kenny Peterson.

Sounds like we need some DGs, and now.

It also says that Doom was pretty poor in run support, Andre’ Goodman wasn’t really good at all, and Champ is still the champ.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 7, 2010 9:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Great write up

Thanks for the time you took and the well presented thoughts

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 6, 2010 9:12 AM MST reply actions  

You're welcome!

Thanks for taking the time to read it. It’s an awful lot to digest, I know. Your time is greatly appreciated.

So long, and thanks for all the fish!

by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 6, 2010 2:41 PM MST up reply actions  

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