Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Chiesa Di Totti for AS Roma fans!

Sharing the Wealth

    In a recent post, "Time to Bid Marshall Adieu," I suggested that, perhaps, it was time for us to allow Marshall to move on, since it appeared that our offense had become overly dependent upon him.  Some of the responses to that post led me to believe that some readers may have thought I was being unfair and/or overly harsh towards Brandon. 

    My intent had not been to disparage Marshall's talents or contributions, but rather point out some rather significant trends/patterns that had appeared in our passing game.  Trends that, IMHO, contributed to our offensive struggles during the second half of the season.  While I realize that there are a large number of factors that affect to whom the ball is thrown -- such as play calling, field position, score, offensive line play, wide receiver play, quarterback preference, etc -- what I was looking at were the end results.  Two things in particular stood out to me:

1)Marshall was targeted at a rate of nearly 2-to-1 over the 2nd & 3rd receivers.

2)In games where Marshall was targeted only 6 or 7 times, Denver went 5-0, whereas when he was targeted 8 or more times, Denver went 3-7.

    This is not to say that the reason we won or lost any of those games is to be laid solely at the feet of Marshall.  After all, he has no control over whom Orton chose to throw to on any given play.  Again, however, the tendency to throw to Marshall far more than to any other receiver definitely presented opposing defensive coaches with a pattern they could exploit.  I am also left to wonder if it did not also have an effect upon how quickly and how well other receivers were able to get into the flow of the game (it would take someone with experience as a player or a coach to clarify that one for me).  I recall reading that McDaniels wanted to identify patterns which the Broncos could exploit while attempting to deny their opponents patterns in the Broncos' play which could be exploited to the detriment of the team.  The heavy targeting of Marshall would appear to be such a pattern.

    But, in order to be a bit more fair to Brandon, I thought I would look at some additional statistics across the board for the Denver receiving corp, as well as taking a looking at how some other teams spread the ball around in 2009.

Star-divide

The Three Receivers Thrown to the Most

    I'd like to start by looking at how the ball was spread around to the three receivers to whom the ball was thrown the most.  I looked not only at Denver's top three, but also the top three for each of the teams that made the playoffs this year.

 

Denver         
Marshall Gaffney Royal            
154 88 79            
 
Cincinnati     New York Jets     New England    
Ochocinco Caldwell Coles Cotchery Ewards Keller Welker Moss Edelman
128 80 77 96 95 82 162 138 54
 
Baltimore     San Diego     Indianapolis    
Mason Rice Heap Gates Jackson Floyd Wayne Clark Garcon
132 103 75 114 107 76 149 132 91
 
Green Bay     Arizona     Dallas    
Jennings Driver Finley Fitzgerald Boldin Breaston Austin Witten Crayton
118 112 71 153 126 82 125 125 67
 
Philadelphia     Minnesota     New Orleans    
Jackson Celek Maclin Rice Berrian Harvin Colston Henderson Meachem
118 112 90 122 92 91 106 83 64

 

 

Gap Between 1st & 3rdGap Between 1st & 2ndGap Between 2nd & 3rd
Denver 75 66 9
Cincinnati 51 48 3
NY Jets 14 1 13
New England 108 24 84
Baltimore 57 29 28
San Diego 38 7 31
Indianapolis 58 17 41
Green Bay 47 6 41
Arizona 71 27 44
Dallas 58 0 58
Philadelphia 28 6 22
Minnesota 31 30 1
New Orleans 42 23 19

 

Some Observations

1)With the exception of New England, Denver had the largest disparity between the #1 and #3 receivers.
2)With the exception of Cincinnati & Denver, the largest gap was between the #2 and #3 receivers; Baltimore was more or less balanced at 29 & 28.

The Denver Receiving Corp

    The tables that follow list the production of the Broncos' receiving corp, as posted at espn.com.

 

MarshallGaffneyRoyalSchefflerGrahamMorenoBuckhalterStokleyLloydHillisJordanQuinn
Games 15 16 14 15 16 16 14 16 2 14 9 15
Targets 154 88 79 50 42 41 38 33 18 6 2 1
Receptions 101 54 37 31 28 28 31 19 8 4 0 0
Percentage 65.5 61.3 46.8 62 66.6 68.2 81.5 57.5 44.4 66.6 0 0
Yards 1120 732 345 416 289 213 240 327 117 19 0 0
Average 11.1 13.6 9.3 13.4 10.3 7.6 7.7 17.2 14.6 4.8 0 0
Touchdowns 10 2 0 2 1 2 0 4 0 0 0 0
Longest 75 49 20 52 24 27 30 87 44 6 0 0
20+ 11 12 1 5 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0
Yards/Game 74.7 45.8 24.6 27.7 18.1 13.3 17.1 20.4 58.5 1.4 0 0
Fumbles 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yards After Catch 457 167 114 100 164 121 241 117 0 13 0 0
First Downs 56 36 23 17 14 10 8 15 5 0 0 0

 

 

 

Targets in WinsMarshallGaffneyRoyalSchefflerGrahamMorenoBuckhalterStokleyLloydHillisJordanQuinn
Cincinnati 7 4 4 2 3 0 2 4 0 2 2 0
Cleveland 6 5 9 2 1 2 3 7 0 0 0 0
Oakland 7 6 3 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Dallas 6 4 6 3 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 0
New England 11 8 15 5 3 5 0 1 0 0 0 0
San Deigo 6 4 4 6 0 2 4 3 0 0 0 0
NY Giants 9 4 0 6 1 3 2 3 0 0 0 0
Kansas City 10 1 4 4 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
  62 36 45 29 17 14 20 18 0 3 2 0

 

 

Target in LossesMarshallGaffneyRoyalSchefflerGrahamMorenoBuckhalterStokleyLloydHillisJordanQuinn
Baltimore 8 4 8 2 4 2 6 0 0 2 0 0
Pittsburgh 15 3 10 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0
Washington 10 1 4 5 3 5 1 2 0 0 0 0
San Diego 9 9 6 3 1 1 3 0 0 1 0 0
Indianapolis 28 4 2 1 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0
Oakland 9 3 4 5 2 7 0 2 0 0 2 0
Philadelphia 13 8 0 4 4 3 2 1 5 0 0 0
Kansas City 0 19 0 0 8 3 4 0 13 0 0 1
  92 51 34 21 26 27 18 7 18 3 2 1


Some Observations & Analysis

Some definite patterns emerge when you look at how the Broncos' receivers were targeted:

 

 

GamesTargetsRecordTargetsRecordTargetsRecord
Marshall 15 6-7 5-0 8+ 3-7    
Gaffney 16 3 or less 1-3 4 4-2 5 or more 3-3
Royal 14 4 or less 5-3 4 or more 3-3    
Scheffler 15 1-2 3-3 3-5 3-4 6 2-0
Graham 16 2 or less 3-3 3 5-2 4 or more 0-3
Moreno 16 1 or less 3-1 2-3 4-4 4 or more 1-3
Buckhalter 14 1 or less 2-3 2-3 4-3 4 or more 2-2
Stokley 16 2 or less 4-8 4 or more 4-0  

 

    The Broncos experienced their greatest successes when the following targeting pattern occurred: Marshall 6-7, Gaffney 4, Royal 4 or fewer, Scheffler 2, Graham 3, Moreno 2 or fewer, Buckhalter 2-3, Stokley 3 or more.

    Is this an attempt to claim that if the Broncos merely follow that pattern they will win?  Not at all.  Rather it is the observation that the more the ball was spread around, the more likely it was that Denver would show achieve a win.

    I fully realize, as I mentioned above, that there are a multitude of factors that go into winning a football game.  This article is not an attempt to suggest that the heavy targeting of Brandon Marshall in 2009 was the causal effect for the Broncos.  I would, however, argue that the heavy targeting of Marshall was a contributing factor to the struggles of the offense.  A factor which, when added the less than effective running game and the struggles of the offensive line, created a situation in which it became that much harder for the offense to maintain drives and score points.

    This issue -- of leaning too heavily upon a single receiver -- is something which, IMHO, can be fixed relatively easily.  I believe we will see improved offensive line play in 2010.  This will boost the effectiveness of both the running and passing games.  I believe we will see our receivers step it up a bit as they will have spent a year in the playbook and (hopefully) not be need to concentrate as heavily upon what they're supposed to be doing.  This should enable them to run more effective routes.  Finally, Orton can be reminded to spread the ball around more, which, if the receivers, o-line and running backs are playing more effectively should be an easy thing to do.

Poll
Did the Denver passing game target Brandon Marshall too heavily in 2009?
Yes
83 votes
No
25 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 59 comments  |  14 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Good job Brian

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Feb 4, 2010 11:25 PM MST reply actions  

Thanks Kap'n

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 4, 2010 11:31 PM MST up reply actions  

You and me both

I was envisioning Royal with 1000 yards.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 7:22 AM MST up reply actions  

I think having Eddie

as the return man hurt his on field production. JMO tho. Your right about the need to spread the ball around. It would interesting to see how this year stack up with 97 & 98 teams. Did Elway spread it around more or did he just focus on Rod and Eddie Mac? Having TD for those years didn’t hurt also.

by papasteven on Feb 5, 2010 7:52 AM MST up reply actions  

Interesting points

I think you may be right about doing dual duty may have affected Royal’s production in both areas.

I think having the TD running game boosted the Elway passing game & vice versa.

I may have to look and see if these same kind of stats are available from that far back.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 7:56 AM MST up reply actions  

The team definitely needs a return specialist.

But, I don’t think Royal’s return duties was the deciding factor in his performance as wide receiver. He had a hard time with the system and scheme. Hopfully he can improve his worth this season.

by bfree2bronc on Feb 5, 2010 12:52 PM MST up reply actions  

Wow, BS. Great post.

5-0 when Brandon catches 6-7 balls. 3-7 when Brandon catches 8+ balls. That is a very very revealing stat. Rec’d.

Are you and TJ brothers or something? These stats don’t lie.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
"I think we’re past that. I love the city of Denver. I started there and I’d like to finish there." - Brandon Marshall at the 2010 Pro Bowl

by Troy Hufford on Feb 5, 2010 7:33 AM MST reply actions  

Everyone's got to be inspired/amazed by The Dude

I’m just one among the masses who have picked up his refrain.

:D

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 7:57 AM MST up reply actions  

Great Post

Gave you a rec just for the work involved. Nice to see a good break down on how we stack up against the league. It sure looks as tho we became pretty much one dimentional. The gap between Marshall and Gaffney is pretty hugh.

I think it was you who commented on the Oline and holding penalties and sacks given up. I don’t remember a whole lot about it but even tho the Line didn’t give up a sack I think what might be reflective in these stats is the fact that the interior line got pushed back far enough to make looking for alternate recievers to Marshall a little bit harder. They didn’t have to allow the defensive palyer to get ot Orton but made it hard for him to step up in the pocket. This would surely have shortened his read time and allow for a throw to the 2nd ,3rd or 4th option. Again JMO on that one. I could be way off base but my gut feeling is that while line line gave up a few sacks Orton prevented some more because he settled on his first read which would have been Brandon Marshall therefore causeing the one dimentional passing attack.

by papasteven on Feb 5, 2010 8:07 AM MST reply actions  

Thanks PS

I wasn’t the one who originally raised the point about Holds/Sacks — I’m trying desperately to remember who that was, it appeared in the comments section of a post.

I do believe you’re right in that Orton often didn’t have anywhere to step up into, that he often had a shortened read time and that those contributed to his throwing to his first read which was most likely Marshall.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 8:24 AM MST up reply actions  

Between the 20s vs the RZ

I believe the team can afford to throw to BMarsh more when between the 20s, since we’re merely trying to move the chains. And we saw how much of a mismatch he appears to be for opposing defenses. The Indy game was a great example: it’s as if their defense knew they could afford to let Marshall get all the catches he could get, as long as the other Denver receivers remained completely taken out of the game.

However, once the offense makes it past the opponent’s 20, the ball needs to be distributed the most, I believe. If Denver maintains one receiver as the “go-to guy,” especially in the RZ, then it appears to be a recipe for losing. One of my gripes during the season was that Tony Scheffler was becoming a frequent observer when the offense was in the RZ.

In TJ’s recent “Bang Your Head” article, he gave the points value of both Scheff and BMarsh. Scheff did the most damage in short right plays and plays that were run out of the shotgun (which is a substantial number of our offensive plays.) Yet he was nowhere to be seen. In those situations, I believe it is critical that the ball is distributed more, since throwing to a double-teamed BMarsh or a 2 yard screen to a RB who is tackled as soon as he makes the catch is a recipe that proved to be ineffective.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Feb 5, 2010 8:34 AM MST reply actions  

Great insights

I agree that we need a “go-to” guy, and that Marshall fits that bill. My only problem with the situation was that our go-to guy was getting thrown to almost twice as often as the next two receivers.

I think your example of the Indy game is especially apt — they weren’t afraid to let the Broncos throw to Marshall, because they knew it kept the other receivers out of the flow of the game and thus helped make our passing offense very one-dimensional.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 8:57 AM MST up reply actions  

Yes

It was unorthodox, but it worked. You’d usually expect a team to get the best player out of his game. But with Indy, they allowed the best player to set new records, but focused on making everyone else a non-factor. By doing that, they allowed Denver to score points, but not enough to win the game. I think it was an interesting bend-but-don’t-break approach, that seems to work.

If Marshall is a Bronco in 2010, I hope Denver solves this problem next year, or we’ll watch this team lose a lot of close games.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Feb 5, 2010 9:27 AM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

And, for no particular reason, I’m inclined to believe that if Marshall does stay, that this situation will be addressed with the whole offensive unit.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 9:34 AM MST up reply actions  

Great post BShrout

I was part of the discussion about BMarsh with you on the last post. Excellent work on digging up these stats and displaying them. I do believe it is up to the coach to figure out how best to utilize the great players and not get rid of them because they are being over utilized….so I hope that is the remedy McD uses (to oversimplify).

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Feb 5, 2010 9:02 AM MST reply actions  

I agree

It’s the coach’s responsibility to also tool the rest of the offense, so that it does not lean too heavily upon any single player.

Marshall’s extremely good at what he does, and I think McDaniels & Orton went to that well just a bit too much.

I also find myself waffling on the whole “keep him/trade him” thing. I’m becoming more and more convinced that McDaniels will treat Brandon as a Randy Moss type project. If they can make that work, we could see our offense really open up in the next couple of seasons.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 9:13 AM MST up reply actions  

So...let me get this straight.

The “Problem” is that Denver threw the ball to Marshall too much down the stretch.

The “Solution” is to get rid of him? Really?

I can think of bunches of reasons to get rid of Marshall. He is whiny. He is injury prone. He is bad in the lockerroom. He is going to be a FA next year. He is too expensive. He is perpetually on Goodell’s chopping block. These are all valid reasons to get rid of Marshall, hopefully getting something in return.

Getting rid of him so that Orton will throw to the other guys…is not.

The problem with McD’s offense last year was…McD’s offense. It was boring. It was one-dimensional. It lacked consistency and purpose. There was no flow or logic to the play calling. Two Words…Bubble Screen. It lacked the ability to set up the run with the pass. It lacked the ability to set up the pass with the run. It was bad in the Red Zone. It was awful trying to come from behind.

The Problem with McD’s offense last year…WAS NOT an excess of talent and we WILL NOT get better by getting rid of more. If we are better next year than we were this year, it will be because everyone else on the offense improved. Not because we got rid of Marshall.

by miner00 on Feb 5, 2010 9:35 AM MST reply actions  

If you read my comments carefully, you will a couple of things

1)I never said in this article that Marshall was “The Problem.”

I suggested that Orton, the play-calling or whatever, that led such an over-targeting of Marshall was a contributing factor to the offensive struggles. There were a lot of other factors that played into it. As you mentioned, play-calling was a big part of it. The lack of a consistently effective running game was a part of it. The o-line’s struggles with schemes played a role.

2)I have moved away from the “Let’s get rid of Marshall” position. Both here and in comments on other posts, I’m becoming more and more convinced that Denver will keep Marshall, that this will be a good move, and that Orton needs to be coached to look for other receivers.

3)The whole point of this article was to point out that when compared to the teams that made the playoffs, Denver did not do a good job of spreading the ball around, and that contributed to the offense’s struggles.

4)I also noted that what this pattern did was provide opposing defenses with a tendency they could exploit — something McDaniels did not want to have happen.

5)I wrote this article as much to see if I had been unfair in my previous article, and I am saying now that I believe I was unfair to Brandon.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 9:46 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

BS - If that is the case, then we agree

I apologize. I admit that I didn’t read through the entire comments section of your first article on this subject so I didn’t know you had changed your position.

1) I didn’t say that you had said Brandon was " the Problem"…

The "Problem" is that Denver threw the ball to Marshall too much down the stretch.

by miner00 on Feb 5, 2010 10:04 AM MST up reply actions  

No worries

It is the open, civil sharing of dissenting opinions (IMHO) that makes MHR such a great place.

While you and I usually don’t agree, I do value your input, because it forces me to examine my own position and determine whether or not I have support for what I see and believe.

So, thanks for your contributions.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 10:15 AM MST up reply actions  

BShrout

Good article in that it defines what happened to Denver last year. It answers the where did we go wrong question. You don’t and I wouldn’t put the blame on the coaches in this case. The situation was just the situation. There was a new, complicated scheme for a new QB to learn. I think the coaches underestimated the diminished ability of Hamilton and Hochstein and the loss of Harris effects on the team. I think just like fixing the safety situation last year improved the defense fixing the O-line this year will greatly improve the offense as well as another year in the schemes. This spring and early summer the team can concentrate on something else than teaching and learning the schemes.

... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear

by 3nS on Feb 5, 2010 12:37 PM MST up reply actions  

I'd agree with you on future improvement

I think the coaches & players all did the best with the situation they were handed.

I’m going to believe that they will learn from 2009 and not repeat some of the same mistakes.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 12:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Another solution would be an upgrade on the offensive line.

Not only would it help the running game, but the defense would have to respect the run, opening up the passing game. Granted, having a deep threat receiver would help, too, but it isn’t just as simple as saying “McD’s offense was boring.” The bubble screen was an attempt to get the ball out quick and into the hands of a playmaker. Unfortunately, the safeties played up and were closer to the action and helped make the play. There’s a strategy behind a playcall and McD was just trying to do the most with the least.

The thing I’m getting at here is that even if we have Marshall, our offense still isn’t clicking on all cylinders. What will help it click on all cylinders is a great offensive line. Look at the jets. They made it all the way to the afc championship with a rookie QB and Braylon Butterfingers Edwards. Their offensive line and defense paved the way for them to make it that far. I would love to see our offensive line look like that. We could have all the weapons in the world on the outside, but if nobody can block up front, then it doesn’t mean anything. The jets showed that you can do more with a good offensive line and average weapons than we could with good weapons and an average offensive line.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
"I think we’re past that. I love the city of Denver. I started there and I’d like to finish there." - Brandon Marshall at the 2010 Pro Bowl

by Troy Hufford on Feb 5, 2010 9:50 AM MST up reply actions  

Yes...I agree

Though only partly. We need new OL to run McD’s scheme. Our guys are NOT power blocking O-Linemen and wouldn’t claim to be. An upgrade on the ofensive line should open things up a little.

It will not fix the lack of imagination that I saw last year in the play calling. Back in Shanny’s first days, a lot was made of his first 15 plays. The beauty of the first 15 was that Shanny could effectively read the entire defensive scheme by running 15 carefully selected plays. He could then exploit that information to run offensive plays for the rest of the game that would set up and misdirect the opposing team. It wasn’t the plays that were spectacular, it was how he organized them, how he read them and how Elway could execute them.

I didn’t see that from McD last year. It seems to me that he sees each individual play as a masterpiece in itself and they are all called in a bubble without regard for what came before or what came after. IMO, he has not learned how to make the defense do what he wants.

I could care less about a deep threat. Even with a QB who can throw the long ball, a long pattern is mostly useless. We brought in Anthony Miller for Elway to chuck it to and it provided mediocre results at best. I certainly don’t expect long ball success with KO heaving it downfield.

The Bubble Screen is exactly what is wrong with this offense. The Bubble screen can be effective, if the safeties have to play honest. The Bubble Screen can work if there is a running threat. The ‘09 Broncos couldn’t run the ball and allowed safeties to play up all the time, and yet we still ran that Fracking Bubble screen 5-6 times per game. The one time it scored was because Brandon Marshall is a beast with the football.

by miner00 on Feb 5, 2010 10:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

From what I’ve read, the heart of the McDaniels offense is the 15-20 yard passing game & using that to open up the running game, the short and long passing games. For whatever reason, our guys weren’t getting open in the 15-20 yard range, which allowed the defense to collapse towards the line while keeping a safety or two (ala the Baltimore game) back to protect against both the mid and deep passes.

Given the fact that McDaniels’ playbook has been described as “taking up an entire shelf,” I’d like to be able to believe what we saw last year was only the primer portion — trimmed down to fit the available personnel. For example, if his offense relies on a power-blocking o-line and had a zone-blocking one, he would have had to scrap a lot of his plays. IMHO, that would have been a contributing factor to the very vanilla look of the offense. Add in all the other factors that can affect an offense and we got what we saw in 2009.

Hopefully, we’ll see an offense that looks different in 2010.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 10:24 AM MST up reply actions  

Word. We just got rice and peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in 2009.

Next season, hopefully we’ll see more exotic dishes in 2010.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
"I think we’re past that. I love the city of Denver. I started there and I’d like to finish there." - Brandon Marshall at the 2010 Pro Bowl

by Troy Hufford on Feb 5, 2010 10:49 AM MST up reply actions  

But . . but

I like PB&J sandwiches. LOL

That’s great.

I want to see steak & potates (good old mid-west, redneck, blue collar power food).

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 10:55 AM MST up reply actions  

YES!!!!

Nothing wrong with PB&J, but if given the choice, I’d definitely choose steak and taters. lol

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
"I think we’re past that. I love the city of Denver. I started there and I’d like to finish there." - Brandon Marshall at the 2010 Pro Bowl

by Troy Hufford on Feb 5, 2010 11:14 AM MST up reply actions  

"our guys not getting open in 15-20 yard range"

I’m not sure I agree, although the TV doesn’t really allow the viewer to judge this. But Marshall, Royal, Scheff, and I’m guessing Gaffney were getting open in that range the year before so the likely problem isn’t the receivers but either the play calling, Orton, the O-line or a combination.

"Pain don't hurt" - Swayze (Road House) -- We miss you man!

by bonaire on Feb 5, 2010 11:27 AM MST up reply actions  

My vote is a combination

I think the o-line struggled with the new scheme.

I think Orton struggled to overcome the muscle memory built from playing behind the Chicago o-line.

I saw quite a number of plays wherein the receivers were slow getting off the line & establishing separation.

I saw some, what I thought was some rather strange situational play-calling (though I tend to pass that off more as my ignorance than an inherent problem in the system).

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 11:37 AM MST up reply actions  

strange plays

Could be on Orton for audibling or not out of a play. Don’t know but just saying.

... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear

by 3nS on Feb 5, 2010 12:44 PM MST up reply actions  

could well be

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 12:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Absolutely...

I would love to once again eat my words on McD and see a greatly improved offense next year!

by miner00 on Feb 5, 2010 2:00 PM MST up reply actions  

And I'm desperately hoping

that I won’t have to eat my words. LOL

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 2:03 PM MST up reply actions  

miner

The only problem with your analyses of Shanahans play calling is that his teams generally scored early but leveled off after the 15 plays. As it gave Shanny an idea what to do, it also gave the defenses an idea of what Shanny was going to do.

... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear

by 3nS on Feb 5, 2010 12:42 PM MST up reply actions  

True...But it worked for a while

I think part of his downfall over the last 5 years or so is that he didn’t put the time or effort into doing that like he did when he first got the gig.

by miner00 on Feb 5, 2010 2:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

I think in becoming an HC, Shanny was pulled away from what he does best — offensive scheming. He was not as strong in the areas of talent evaluation and development.

He inherited a team that had most of the pieces in place for a playoff run, and for his first 4 years went 47-17, a .870 winning percentage. After the 2nd Super Bowl win as some of those began to decline and/or leave, Shanahan had a 10-year stretch in which his record became 91-69, or a .569 winning percentage.

It will be interesting to see if the Washington position places him in a position to do what he does best, or whether he will continue the tendency to stretch himself too thin.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 2:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Amen to that KB

I’d be very surprised if the o-line isn’t a priority for McDaniels this off season.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 10:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Yes he was targeted too much, but should still be a BRONCO :)

This was pretty eye-opening. Nice job!

One thing that glared at me was that NE really screwed the pooch by letting us get Gaffney. When Welker went down, they were finished. I believe it also speaks very highly of Gaffney’s abilities. :)

Nice work, and here’s hoping that we can rediscover Royal this year!!!

"Brandon Marshall will be a happy BRONCO WR in 2010"
Broncotodd - 2009

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

by Broncotodd on Feb 5, 2010 9:43 AM MST reply actions  

Agreed

I think Royal was just having a sophomore slump, exaggerated by having to learn a new offensive system.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 10:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Stokley

We can also see that Orton targeted others like Stokley when he needed the big play done.

by Topher Doll on Feb 5, 2010 11:35 AM MST reply actions  

Good point

Something that the stats don’t show is the number of times that Stokley was cutting on a slant across the middle and had the back of his jersey grabbed & held onto just long enough to make him break stride — which led to his slapping the hand of the ref in that one game.

Though I think all Stokes was doing was saying “Good call, ref, gimme five” ;-p

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 11:38 AM MST up reply actions  

You make a good case..

for diversifying our pass offense. Also, with a strong OL and running game, we should not be so easily defended. Good job and rec’d.

"Weakness of attitude becomes weakness of character." -- Albert Einstein

by hairybear on Feb 5, 2010 12:28 PM MST reply actions  

Thanks for jumping in

I agree with you that if we can improve the o-line (at least stop flopping between blocking schemes) and the running game, we can present a hard to defend offense.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 12:46 PM MST up reply actions  

It would be SO much easier to trade BM if Eddie Royal hadn’t sucked so bad in 2009. Eddie looked like he would be a legit #1 WR after the 2008 season, certainly a top shelf #2 WR. After 2009, I don’t know what to think of Eddie’s future prospects – by the thoughts are not nearly as cheery. If Eddie gets more defensive attention or lined up vs better CBs in 2010, I can’t help but think he’ll be ineffective.

At this point, we certainly can’t count on him being a #1 WR and he didn’t even look ready to play #2 WR at an adequate level in the McDaniels offense.

Gaffney does seem like a decent #2 WR, but certainly not a #1 WR. Gaff had only 33 catches and no TDs from games 1 to 14 (most of the season). Before the Philly game, I didn’t think he’d have a LT future in Denver, but his play at the end of the season leads me to believe he’ll be in our plans for the next few years.

If Gaff and Royal were our #1 and #2 WRs to start 2010, we’d probably have close to the worst starting WR duo in the NFL. No Scheff at TE and we lose another pass catching weapon (not a big loss IMO, but worth noting). I don’t see how any of this helps Orton. No game breaking (sometimes Marshall), no go to possession WR (certainly Marshall) and no deep threat.

Our running game would have to improve by leaps and bounds in order for our offense to do its part in 2010. Will drafting Pouncy and trading for a player like Yanda immediately make our running game unstoppable? Maybe by mid season or 2011, but not in the short term.

Without Marshall, we have a massive crater at #1 WR and no one on the current roster that is remotely ready to fill the void (even groups of players not ready to fill the void). If signing someone like TO or drafting Dez Bryant is how we backfill BMs roster spot, I don’t see our offense getting any better in 2010. Drafting two WRs like Golden Tate and Jordan Shipley (with the Marshall pics) would get me more excited, but it still leaves 2010 as a year of growing pains (after 2009 was a year of growing pains).

I believe that trading Marshall for draft picks (a 1st and 3rd seems most logical based on the CBA) will have a negative impact on our 2010 season. How those draft picks pan out will speak to our future beyond that. Maybe we’ll be coming around in time for the lock out in 2011.

San Diego Super Chokers – The annual preseason Champs, eternal post season chumps. Stay Classy

by McGeorge on Feb 5, 2010 3:02 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

Good points

Marshall, love him or hate him, you won’t replace him with a better receiver.

... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear

by 3nS on Feb 5, 2010 3:07 PM MST up reply actions  

amen to that

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

I'd totally agree on trading Marshall for picks

I just don’t see that that would provide us with an immediate improvement.

I’ve mentioned recently that I’m leaning towards the view that McDaniels may want to make Marshall a reclamation project (like the Pats did with Moss), and the biggest question in my mind is whether or not Marshall will be willing to go along with it.

I think if we can keep Marshall, improve the o-line, improve the running game, and spread the ball around more in the passing game, we will have an offense that will be strongly competitive. I know, I’m wishing for the moon here, but as the little boy JP repeatedly declared in “Angels in the Outfield:” “It could happen.” :)

Thanks for adding your viewpoint McG.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

I just realized that first sentence sounded weird

I meant to say “I’d agree that trading Marshall for picks is not a good idea”

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 5, 2010 6:17 PM MST up reply actions  

McGeorge your scenario scares the begeebers out of me...
If Gaff and Royal were our #1 and #2 WRs to start 2010, we’d probably have close to the worst starting WR duo in the NFL. No Scheff at TE and we lose another pass catching weapon (not a big loss IMO, but worth noting). I don’t see how any of this helps Orton. No game breaking (sometimes Marshall), no go to possession WR (certainly Marshall) and no deep threat.

by bfree2bronc on Feb 5, 2010 4:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Excellent line of logic.

Is Royal a bad receiver? Did Cutler make him who he was in 2008? DId he just have a sophomore slump? If he’s not going to be a good receiver, then we should get rid of him, but how can we tell? One good year, one bad year. Seems like 2010 is his rookie season all over again. I can give a player a bad year, learning a new system, yadda yadda yadda. But more bad years, even cut with good years, means he has to go in my opinion. Inconsistency is just as bad as consistently bad, IMO.

-Harvey J. Neptune

"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi

by HarvJNep2n on Feb 6, 2010 8:14 AM MST up reply actions  

Great stuff, BS

I can’t help but have the feeling that Marshall’s targets were up in losses BECAUSE we were losing, and BECAUSE the running game wasn’t working. What else can we do when we’re behind with no effective running game? We have to lob it toward the guy who can make the fantastic catches (although Lloyd showed us some of that, too). I like your stats, but, as you stated, they have multiple interpretations.

Thanks for the effort!

-Harvey J. Neptune

"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi

by HarvJNep2n on Feb 6, 2010 8:10 AM MST reply actions  

Great research BS but we also have to include that Josh addresssed this issue during the season .

He said that Royal and Gaffney split snaps so he doesnt consider them as playing the second and 3rd receiver spots . So I took it he meant

Receiver 1 – Brandon

Receiver 2 – Eddie/Gaffney

Now imo that explains a lot and essentially points to a mistake by Josh . By giving Royal more snaps than Gaffney prior to his injury when Gaffney was outplaying Royal badly he hurt the team . It caused Orton to lean on Marshall more than he shouldve have .

Also we have to take into account the packages that we used . The only guy who really was invisible was Eddie .

Im working on a highlight video and the one thing I noticed was that whenever Gaffney was in Orton found him the same with Stoke and the same with Scheff but on some of those plays they were decoys or scheff was used to stay in to block . On other plays Eddie was in for Gaffney and he just couldnt get open.

the other factor was what defense were we facing . Against those Zones Marshall was playing Welkers role so hes dragging across the field behind the linebackers looking for a hole and the other routes were used to widen those holes for Marshall .

I thought the KC game was a good example of how good the passing game could be because we moved Gaffney around a lot because he knows all 3 positions and he was getting open. Now imagine if we could get our top 4 receivers to the level of being able to lineup anywhere and make the route adjustments at the line .

In the grand scheme Marshall was targeted no more than any other top 7 receivers in the game even with him missing a game . The Indy game actually boosted him to top 5 level and without it hes near the bottom of the top ten .

Royals lack of productivity is really what screws things up. Because even without the last game Royal and Eddie were targeted numbers combined would put them in the top ten. If Royal was more productive and we consider what the coach said the combined catches wouldve put them at 75.+ catches . The TE in our offense only 40-50 passes.

We had 3 receivers in the top 61 in the nfl in times targeted but because of Royal not all 3 were in the top 61 in catches. The gap in the passing offense in terms of balancing it out is Royals productivity if hes productive it closes the gap.

by Hoopforia on Feb 6, 2010 9:51 AM MST reply actions  

thanks for the great addition

I definitely noticed that Royal’s reception percentage was way below what it had been the previous year.

I had not heard the quote from McDaniels about Gaffney/Royal essentially sharing the number 2 spot. Thanks for bringing me up to speed on that one.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 6, 2010 10:08 AM MST up reply actions  

Great work, BShrout!

Top of your game!

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Feb 6, 2010 11:24 AM MST reply actions  

Thanks, TJ

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Feb 6, 2010 11:57 AM MST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

MileHighReport(MHR) is the ultimate independent resource for the Denver Broncos on the web. Along with MHR Radio, the official podcast of MHR, we look to provide hardcore Denver Broncos fans positive, independent insight about the Broncos, 24/7/365!

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Haleycriesalot_small
Pre-Free Agency Thoughts
Pumpkin_small
MLBs - what we have and what Fox and Del Rio historically want
Ph_small
2011: MHR I Need Your Help With An Upcoming Post
Zozobra_small
Explaining What "IT" Is that Tebow Has: An Analysis of the Art of Miracles
Pumpkin_small
The risk/reward analysis on drafting RBs earlier vs later

Recent FanPosts

0_1979_ford_f100-sequin_small
QBs and what MHR wants???
Small
Denver Broncos Draft Strategy - Analyzing 2011 Offseason
Small
Broncos Roster needs – offseason 2012
Cube-orange_small
what makes a good nickel cornerback?
Small
Spread-ing History
Denver-broncos-wallpaper_1__small
The First Real Signing
La_la_land_small
Kids In A Candy Store
Small
A Shot at a Mock
Small
Broncos positions of need – off season 2012
0_1979_ford_f100-sequin_small
My GM box 2.0

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Getting Social With MHR

Facebook_badge_medium_medium
Black_generated_button

Milehighreport_email_medium

Web Stuff


 

Listed on BlogShares Top NFL Fan Sites


General Manager/Head Coach

Milehighreport_small John Bena

2011_small KaptainKirk

Asst. Head Coach

Dadndaughter_small Tim Lynch

2_small Sayre Bedinger

Bronco-pride_small Brian Shrout

Broncohoodie_in_africa_small Troy Hufford

Position Coach

182px-jesus_small Jezru

Flag_canada_small Colby

Img_0007_small Topher Doll

Small zsheely

Hottie_small Sarah_Marshall

Quality Control

800px-john_brown_painting_small mdierk