2010 NFL Draft Watch: Defensive Ends
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 8, 2010 6:14 PM MST
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(Note: This is the continuation of a series of articles looking in-depth at each position category in the 2010 NFL Draft. All players will be evaluated based on their fit in the Broncos' scheme and quality of player preference)
The defensive end position is a unique animal. I am tempted to separate out the "true" defensive ends (i.e., those who will play on the line in a typical defensive formation) from the "tweeners" or "hybrids" (i.e., those who will play either linebacker or situational role-player). However, I have promised myself -- and you -- that I will Keep It Simple, Stupid. So, I'll just assume that the premises are well-understood, and dive right in.
It might be helpful to read Emmit Smith's excellent article on the responsibilities of OLBs/DEs in the Bronco's scheme. For another defensive line analysis, see Vortex7's post HERE. Finally, I am indebted to PredominantlyOrange for generously allowing me access to the Scout.com War Room information.
| PROSPECT NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| Alex Carrington | 5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| CJ Wilson | 4.5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| Austen Lane | 4.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Corey Wooten | 3.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Carlos Dunlap | 2.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Derrick Morgan | 4.5 stars | LDE |
| Everson Griffen | 1.5 stars | LDE |
| George Selvie | 4.5 stars | RDE |
| Brandon Graham | 4 stars | RDE |
| Jermaine Cunningham | 3 stars | RDE |
| Brandon Lang | 3 stars | RDE |
| Jason Worilds | 2.5 stars | RDE |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 2 stars | RDE |
| Willie Young | 2 stars | RDE |
| Rahim Alem | 2 stars | RDE |
| Greg Hardy | 1.5 stars | RDE |
| Lindsey Witten | 1.5 stars | RDE |
Derrick Morgan (6-4, 272 lbs) Georgia Tech
1st round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
Most draft sites have a consensus that this guy is best in a 4-3 scheme. And I'll be honest, I usually stopped reading then. However, like Brian Price, the phrase "best fits in a 4-3 scheme" does not mutually exclude "can do well as a 3-4 end" So I looked deeper and found tidbits like these:
Was moved around throughout every game. Played end on both sides, even saw time inside the guard. The quickness off the snap and consistent technique allows him to excel at any spot along the defensive line. Even has the explosion to play standing up in a 3-4 scheme.
Morgan is by far the most versatile defensive end in this draft class, but the talent is right there to match it.... With that said, it is rare to come by such a talented prospect that understands the importance of technique and work ethic [NewEraScouting]
With his natural talent, work ethic, and willingness to be coached, he has elite potential. Also, he is "excellent" against the run, according to the War Room (especially our version that asks DEs to contain the edges):
Does a good job of tying up and stringing out the play on outside runs to his side. Keeps play inside of him when that is his responsibility and can disengage and make tackles. On misdirection plays back to his side, shows good athleticism changing directions and exploding back toward the near sideline to track down running back before he can turn the corner.
I'm going to spend a bit more time and space on Morgan than I will with the other guys, to reiterate a point. The Denver Broncos run an amoeba version of the 3-4, one that flashes 4-3 and 5-2 looks. Yes, Mike Nolan is gone, but that was a personal issue (wanting to be closer to home) that had nothing to do with McDaniels' preference. Given his prediliction for versatile players and a versatile offense, it is no stretch to assume the defense will be the same and we will continue with our current scheme.
This is why you simply cannot look at a prospect, see he projects to a 4-3, and write him off (as I did). The Broncos organization has made it clear that they want versatile players with good football IQ and good instincts. When you understand that, you understand that pretty much everyone is a "role player" of one sort or another. Think of it this way: when you're drafting Broncos-style, you're not spending a draft pick on a promise of statistics or playing time -- you're spending it on a player.
So here's the bottom line: Morgan is a fantastic player who has great potential and a very polished game right now (he even looks good dropping back into coverage). He is an excellent fit for the kind of player we want, and a good fit for our defensive scheme when you really look closely at what that scheme is. I see him projecting to a role at LDE, providing a great pass-rush opposite Doom while also being stout vs. the run.
FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars
Brandon Graham (6-1, 263 lbs) Michigan
2nd round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
The MVP of the Senior Bowl has greatly helped his draft stock by his performance. He now is more of a late first-round prospect. He certainly has the production for it, with a frightening 26 tackles for a loss and 10.5 sacks. He is in the same mold as Dumervil -- undersized with superior strength.
Very disruptive pass rusher. Usually occupied two blockers and can beat double teams. Very strong, especially in the lower body, and will break through double teams. Was very good in run support for the Wolverines and only got pushed back on double teams.
Draftbreakdown also says he has "Good overall football IQ with good awareness." NFLdraftscout notes that he drops into coverage "easily" and has "some fluidity in space". As a finishing touch...
Brings full effort from the first quarter to the fourth... Stepped up his role as a senior from leading by example and becoming a vocal leader who encourages and gets after teammates
This guy is a fantastic fit for the Broncos' player profile and a pretty good fit for their scheme (he is mostly used to a 3-point stance instead of a standup rush role) at RDE, but would work well at LDE also.
FINAL EVALUATION: 4 stars
Corey Wooten (6-6, 280 lbs) Northwestern
2nd round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
Wooten is a difficult prospect to evaluate. He is a work in progress against the run, with weak lateral agility and less-than-desirable strength. Also, he is entirely unproven dropping into coverage. In my opinion, he fits best on the interior at 5-tech RDG, but he needs about 10-20 lbs. more bulk. However, he is a quality player in the locker room:
Team Most Valuable Player in 2008 was a locker room and on-field leader on defense again as a senior. Coaches like his work ethic, especially during his recent injury rehabilitation. [NFLdraftscout.com]
The best part is that his instincts are already in place and he can be taught better technique:
Diagnostic skills are elite. Not a lot of wasted motion and gets himself into strong initial position. Gets the most out of his overall skills on a consistent basis. Works to the whistle on every play [Scouts, Inc.]
Definitely a project that we should avoid overpaying for.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 1/2 stars
George Selvie (6-5, 247 lbs) South Florida
3rd round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
via blog.nj.com
Which version of him are we referring to? The Selvie who got 14 sacks in 2007 and then 8 the next two seasons combined? I'll be honest -- he sounds mighty interesting:
Works hard throughout the game, no matter how often he's double-teamed. Played through pain during most of 2008. Team leader who charges up his teammates with big plays on the field. [NFLdraftscout.com]
Scouts, Inc. describes him as a "leader who loves the game" and who gives "outstanding effort". The most fascinating review comes from Sideline Scouting:
Really makes plays all over the field, great motor
-Good run stopper
-Looks comfortable dropping into coverage
-Such a humble athlete, has worked hard to get where he is
Honestly, if I'm Selvie I'm praying the Broncos select me. In a 5-2, he gets to use all his strengths (i.e., superb first step, play with his hand down) and isn't forced into a full-time coverage role. He would be a great backup for Dumervil at RDE, which would allow us to rotate Ayers to LDE, where I feel he is a better fit anyway.
FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars
Jermaine Cunningham (6-3, 252 lbs) Florida
3rd round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
First the good:
He hustles every single play and has a great heart. He’s a great leader on the football field [FootballFanSpot]
Cunningham is a high-effort player that leads by example [NewEraScouting]
He has experience at both ends, and playing standing up and from a 3-point stance. He also has been a solid special teams tackler while at Florida.
Unfortunately, he is a suspect quality against the run -- his number of tackles has decreased every year -- since he lacks adequate strength to shed blocks and effectively wrap up. His instincts are also questionable in this area. These deficiencies are offset somewhat by some very Bronco-esque qualities:
Shows good lateral agility to control the edge. Understands his role in containment... Developed a knack for knocking the ball loose as a junior due to active hands. [NFLdraftscout.com]
Ultimately, he is a solid backup RDE who needs to improve his strength and develop his instincts.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 stars
Alex Carrington (6-5, 284 lbs) Arkansas State
3rd-4th round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
I'll be up-front: I want this guy to end up in Orange and Blue in the worst way. And if you were man-crushing on Tyson Jackson last year, you need to jump on the bandwagon. He had 41 tackles, 14.5 for a loss, and 9 sacks his senior season. Still, this was in the Sun Belt Conference -- not particularly known for its high level of competition. Before you are scared off, however, know that he dominated in the Senior Bowl vs. elite competition.
While his quickness is not ideal off the snap, his strength is very impressive and he absolutely does not give ground. He is a superb run-stuffer:
His best area. Has the length and strength to hold up at the point of attack. Locks-out with the tackle and has the lateral agility and balance to work his way toward the sideline, stringing out the sweep. Instinctive, physical run defender that rarely loses contain [NFLdraftscout.com]
This means that he is a best fit as a 5-tech LDG for the Broncos. He graduated with a 3.52 GPA in Psychology and plans to return to grad school after his football career and become a clinical psychologist, so you know he's intelligent. In case you needed more proof, he has logged significant time on special teams.
FINAL EVALUATION: 5 stars
Brandon Lang (6-4, 260 lbs) Troy
3rd-4th round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
NFLdraftscout.com calls him a "natural pass rusher with a feel for lanes, good hand technique and a high football IQ." Indeed, one of the most commonly noted facets of his game is how good his technique is when he is engaged: multiple polished pass-rush moves, low pad level, good hands. Also, he has had ample opportunity to drop into coverage and has developed a good feel for reading the QB's eyes. Draft Countdown says he has "Excellent feet --- Fluid hips and has shown the ability to drop into coverage --- Active with a fantastic motor."
With that being said, there are some Bronco-centric red flags. First of all, he initially signed with Georgia but was declared academically ineligible and was forced to go to Troy instead after a year of junior college. Second, not only is run defense not his strong suit, he has an unfortunate tendency to overpursue and not contain the edge. This will have to be scrubbed out of him.
Ultimately, he is an RDE who could contribute right away in passing situations, but will need to have a good deal of work done before he is ready to assist in run support.
FINAL EVALUATION: 3 stars
Austen Lane (6-6, 267 lbs) Murray State
3rd-4th round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com
If we miss out on Alex Carrington, then this is the guy I'm targeting. Sideline Scouting says this about him:
-Very instinctive, always around the ball-Versatile, good pass catcher so he could be a #3 TE (think Connor Barwin)
-On-the-field leader, high motor
-Could add another 15 pounds without losing any speed
He has ideal size, but would need to put on some weight -- preferably muscle mass -- before he is quite ready to play every down at DG in the Broncos' scheme. He had an astonishing 22 tackles for a loss in 2008, so it is clear he has strong talent at getting in the opponent's backfield. He is good in pass coverage, but will need to get stronger before he can really contribute in run support. I like this summary the best:
He is a great athlete with elite initial quickness and an explosive first step; has excellent speed (4.59). Is fluid and agile when turning the corner and he has good closing burst to the quarterback. With great passion for rushing the passer, Lane is an intelligent player and has good feel for the game
His best fit right now is as an RDG, but he has a nearly limitless ceiling.
FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars
C.J. Wilson (6-3, 284 lbs) East Carolina
3rd-4th round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
One thing is certain: the later rounds are going to offer several gems for the Broncos. Wilson is definitely one of them. His height isn't ideal, but he uses every bit of his 284 lbs when engaged, keeping his pads low and using a very effective bull rush to collapse the pocket.
Disciplined defender who understands containment responsibilities. Keeps his head up and quickly locates the ball. Good effort in pursuit laterally and downfield [NFLdraftscout.com]
The mantra of "disciplined defender" is repeated by several sites, as are raves for his NFL-ready fundamentals and tackling technique. Scouts, Inc. notes that his awareness extends to the pass as well, getting his hands in the air in time to block the pass. Finally:
Plays with an edge and works from the snap until the whistle.
There are some concerns about academics, since he had to sit out his freshmen fall semester. Still, he is a great fit for the Broncos in every other way, projecting as an excellent LDG
FINAL EVALUATION: 4 1/2 stars
NOTICEABLY ABSENT:
Carlos Dunlap (6-6, 290 lbs) Florida
1st round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
Let the argument begin. It's difficult to distill Dunlap into a few sentences, so I'll just assume you all know the basics: perfect height/weight, amazing speed, very strong, with an NFL-ready technique and a nearly limitless ceiling. His closest NFL comparison is Mario Williams, drafted 1st overall in 2006. He also got a DUI 3 days before the SEC Championship game, was suspended then reinstated for the Sugar Bowl, and has lingering questions surrounding his on-field work ethic. He is perfect fit in our scheme as a RDG.
Got it? Now the conclusion: if Josh McDaniels takes him at 10/11, I'll be ecstatic. I'll also be terrified. I'll also be utterly befuddled, because it will go against the grain of everything he says he wants in a player: team-first, hard worker, good football IQ. Dunlap is a pure physical talent and will require a firm hand on the reins to do anything of value -- but Josh McDaniels and his mentor Bill Belichick are the BEST at that: Marshall and Moss are exhibits A and B. That being said, with what information I have I simply can't pull the trigger and say that Dunlap is a good fit for the Broncos. Besides, if Undead Al doesn't take Taylor Mays, he'll go with Dunlap instead.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 1/2 stars
Jason Pierre-Paul (6-6, 265 lbs) South Florida
1st-2nd round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
From a freakish athlete with character and motor/drive issues, we turn to another freakish athlete with academic and experience issues. No questions about Pierre-Paul's on-field effort, but you have to wonder about a guy's football IQ when he failed to get into USF because of academics, went to junior college, transferred to another junior college, and then had one year against so-so competition in the Big East. He is only capable of being an RDE for the Broncos, and while his effort is admirable vs. the run, he is raw at best in this area and is a complete unknown in pass coverage.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 stars
Everson Griffen (6-3, 278 lbs) Southern California
1st-2nd round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
A prospect with great measurables and plenty of experience as a starter. He even has experience dropping into coverage, and he projects best as an LDE for the Broncos. But, the common complaint aginst him is this:
He's got some character issues and some real issues about effort. You see it in the mental parts of his game. He doesn't anticipate well, doesn't read plays well, and just looks a little lost out there[DraftBoardInsider]
This is why despite his obvious talent and versatility, he has never dominated the competition on the field. Even as an LDE, due to his poor awareness he wouldn't be a good fit for us because our guys are asked less to make the big play or big hit and more to make the sure tackle for little or no gain.
FINAL EVALUATION: 1 1/2 stars
Greg Hardy (6-4, 279 lbs) Mississippi
2nd round
Scout.com 5-star prospect
Hardy has been in the national conversation for best pass-rusher in the country for... well, as long as he's been in college. He has good size, great bulk, excellent agility, and lots of strength. Unfortunately, he has red flags of the most serious variety if you're a Bronco fan:
Was benched during 2008 South Carolina game for a lack of effort. Was suspended two games in 2007 for violating team rules. Notoriously inconsistent worker [Scouts, Inc.]
He is also poor at dropping back into coverage and only adequate in run support. For these reasons, his best fit for us is as a 5-tech RDG, but that's not a great fit either. It's disappointing.
FINAL EVALUATION: 1 1/2 stars
Jason Worilds (6-2, 252 lbs) Viginia Tech
3rd round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
Will most definitely be an RDE for the Broncos if he does get drafted by the Orange and Blue. There are definitely some things to like: he has significant time as a special teams gunner with great speed (4.49) who puts in lots of time in the weight room. He plays with a nastiness and intensity that opposing quarterbacks fear. Still, he is entirely unproven in pass coverage, is a liability vs. the run, and is mostly a pass-rushing specialist. I have some lingering doubts about his character -- he entered the draft a year early, despite a poor showing by Virginia Tech and a disappointing junior campaign, surprising his coaches with his last-minute decision. I certainly wouldn't give anything more than a 4th rounder for him, but his special teams ability and willingness to work hard warrant a flier on his natural talent
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 1/2 stars
Willie Young (6-5, 251 lbs) North Carolina State
3rd round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
Like Worilds, he is undersized and is best as a pass-rushing OLB (an RDE for the Broncos). Also like Worilds, he is a liability against the run, although he is better able to set the edge on outside running plays. Unfortunately, he has neither the special-teams ability nor weight room drive of Worilds. Without a doubt, he is a seasoned player: he has played in every game he's been on the team for in college, and a 3-year starter. The problem with that is that he has only marginally improved each year and is now 24 years old. His upside is limited. Finally, there is this note:
An admitted free spirit who reportedly struggled initially adjusting to the coaching staff's old-school mentality, he was benched last season due to inconsistent effort and undisciplined play [NFLdraftscout.com]
Still, he was voted a team captain in 2009. A fair prospect, but no one to get excited over.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 stars
Rahim Alem (6-3, 260 lbs) LSU
4th round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
Well, he showed a lot of promise playing opposite Tyson Jackson in 2008, but did little in 2009. That, coupled with his lack of playing time in years prior, seems to speak to him being a one-year wonder that benefitted mostly from his supporting cast. Still, he is described as "Relentless in pursuit of the ball carrier" and "Explosive, plays fast and dangerous, goes all out on every play" (Sideline Scouting). His run skills are mostly effort, but he lacks the strength to really be a factor in this area. Right now, he is a pass-rushing specialist only, at RDE.
FINAL EVALUATION: 2 stars
Lindsey Witten (6-5, 248 lbs) Connecticut
4th round
Scout.com 4-star prospect
A prospect with good size but less-than-ideal bulk, Witten has improved every season he's been on the field. He had a great senior season, finishing with 11.5 sacks. He has great speed and quickness at getting around the edge and into the backfield. However, he projects as an OLB in the NFL -- a RDE in the Broncos' scheme. Due to limited playing time (his senior season was his first one as a starter) and limited exposure to elite competition (did not make a huge impact in the East-West Shrine game), his game only has one facet right now: speed rushing the passer. Granted, he does that plenty well enough -- coupled with his natural physical tools -- to warrant late-round or free agency consideration. At this point, however, he is a project that will sit for at least two seasons.
FINAL EVALUATION: 1 1/2 stars
Some quick final thoughts: It should be clear from the large amount of sub-3-star guys that the defensive end position is fraught with risk in terms of player evaluation. It should also be clear from the large amount of 4-star-plus guys that this is a deep draft class with lots of potential, particularly a few notables in the later rounds. Of course, much of the success of an evaluation like this depends on our roster and team goals. Do we resign Dumervil? If we do, do we use him as a situational rusher or an every-down guy? Does Robert Ayers rotate to the strong side or does he stay on the weakside backing up Doom? With Jarvis Moss still on the roster, is it even necessary to use a late-round flier on a pure pass-rusher? There is a lot of "Dove Valley Stuff" that affects how accurate an analysis like this is. Still, it is the best I can do with the information I have. We'll see if it passes muster when the dust settles. Enjoy!
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Comments
Graham is a fantastic player
Without a doubt, the kind of guy the Broncos look for.
We’d have to trade down to get him, and most people around here would be livid if we did that and didn’t grab Iupati (or Pouncey). Not that our opinion means much to Bronco brass (nor should it), but my point is that in a vacuum Graham looks great for us
The question now becomes, are we willing to pay what it might take to get him (i.e., passing on other guys, trading up if we can’t trade down, etc.). It will be interesting to see what the reaction will be if Doom is not signed and/or is tendered and we don’t match. Does Iupati or Graham now become the favorite in the late first round?
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 8, 2010 8:11 PM MST up reply actions
Rec'd
Great job, we all learn a lot from these. I wrote off Derrick Morgan as I saw he was talked about as a 4-3 player. Selvie is an interesting prospect that I’ll have to continue to look into. I put Carrington in one of my drafts a while ago, but he wasn’t as highly regarded, and was about a 6th-7th rounder. Keep ’em comin!
Eddie Royal will have a breakout season in 2010. Count on it.
Thanks!
The main reason Morgan is considered a 4-3 player is his size. There is an assumption that since you’re putting fewer guys on the line in a 3-4, you have to make up in body mass what you lack in number. 275 lbs seems to be the magic number. There are some less widely circulated assumptions, such as that guys with an exceptional first step belong in a 4-3 due to them lining up closer to the blocker, but the weight is the salient issue.
That being said, since Morgan projects into our system as an “on the line” player in the 5-2/4-3 look (i.e., on passing downs), that isn’t an issue. Also, he is very comparable in size to Ayers (who was also a consensus 4-3 player), so we know that McDaniels isn’t scared away from such guys.
I have altered my assessment of Morgan; he is now the only DL I would definitely take at 10/11 — Price I would have to consider and weigh against reaching somewhere else.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 8, 2010 8:03 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, I wouldn't be angry if we picked him at 10/11
If McDaniels does in fact like him for our defense, it wouldn’t be a bad pick.
Eddie Royal will have a breakout season in 2010. Count on it.
I agree
Personally, I like him better than Ayers as a prospect and perhaps even as a polished play-right-now player. And I’m an Ayers apologist, so that says something.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 9:40 AM MST up reply actions
but if Doom is resigned then the pick has to be used on need. 3-4 OLB with Doom and Ayers would not be a need.
Using a pick strictly on need is not a good idea,
that’s how major reaches and busts happen. Also, Morgan could be used in a few different spots.
Eddie Royal will have a breakout season in 2010. Count on it.
One name comes readily to mind:
Jarvis Moss
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 7:36 PM MST up reply actions
Absolute statements are very poor draft strategies
Who else is available? Can we trade down? What other FA moves have we made? What are our exact plans for Ayers? Is Doom mainly situational? What’s the depth at other positions in the draft like?
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 7:35 PM MST up reply actions
Very fine post Sharpe.
Moss has been a disappointment for us, or is there a talent there that needs more time. McDaniels keeping him on the roster after the episode in Training Camp says a lot of wht our coach is willing to do if there is a glimmer of hope. Here’s hoping he either get’s it this season or…get’s the boot.
I’ll take Derrick Morgan in the 1st.
Well, Moss is an odd situation
He’s scheduled to get $750K this year. Not incredibly huge, but his original contract in 2007 included $8.6 million in guaranteed money. I don’t know how much of that is allocated for 2010.
In 2009, he took up $1.86 million of cap space, which put him above several notables but more or less at the middle of the pack. His bonuses in 2009 were $80K, which put him well above most. Perhaps there are some incentives in place that are a factor — the contract had $3.6 million in incentives.
All indications out of Florida were that Moss is a player with exceptional speed/quickness who is a potential pass-rushing phenom. Unfortunately, while he’s got great height he’s got very poor weight, especially in our scheme. Maybe he’s been trying to put on weight, maybe his potential is a factor, maybe money is… I simply don’t know.
Or maybe he’s gone this offseason.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 9:26 AM MST up reply actions
Love these posts.
Great evaluations.
You guys feel we have that big of need here to go DE in 1st round? Again.
Rec’d
"Just trying to win a MF game."
Yes
Of course it all depends on who is available, etc.
I would put the following current roster players on the chopping block:
1. Kenny Peterson
2. LeKevin Smith
3. Jarvis Moss
4. Ryan McBean
That’s 3 DE/DGs, and 1 OLB/DE — all of whom play “on the line” in most situations. Even if those players aren’t axed, they are still all in need of upgrade.
Our biggest need is to get DGs who can stop the run. Our second-biggest is to get a pass-rush to complement Doom (but due to our standards, must also be solid vs. the run) either at DG or LDE. The guys on the list above didn’t really do much of either, although I will give McBean some minor props for his work.
I would take any of the following in Round 1 (considered in a vacuum, that is):
1. Ndamukong Suh
2. Gerald McCoy
3. Derrick Morgan
4. Brian Price
5. Dan Williams
6. Brandon Graham
They all fit our player profile, they are all excellent talent, and they all fit areas of need.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
DG
I see you have both starters Peterson and McBean on your list. That is why when people are clamoring for Denver to take a NT or LB, I question them. My opinion is that Peterson and McBean are quality backups. I don’t want to see them go but an upgrade at DG is the 3rd team need after C and OG which can be upgraded later in the draft than DG.
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
by 3nS on Feb 9, 2010 9:50 AM MST up reply actions
I have to disagree on your evaluation of Ryan McBean. Seems like he graded out as the second best DL in 2009 next to Ron Fields.
NAH, I would diffenately keep McBean.
McBean is the guy I would be most likely to keep
But honestly: “the second best DL in 2009 [on the Broncos] next to Ron Fields” doesn’t say much. It certainly doesn’t preclude an upgrade through draft or FA.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 7:38 PM MST up reply actions
Ryan McBean hasn't even reached his potential.
We can’t evaluate the players just on their performance last season. The new system and scheme has to be accounted for in their lack of performance. Hacking off potential stars isn’t as easy as it seems, there are circumstances that made them play the way they played. I wasn’t impressed with DJ’s play on a lot of plays, but he is still a very good player IMO. Evaluating these players and others is the first thing on the coaches mind. It will be a difficult task reading their abilities and assessing their value to the team. I know I wouldn’t want the job. The point is…If McDaniels cuts a player and he goes somewhere else and tears up the league with his play in a couple of years, that would make McD look a little crappy wouldn’t it? He has a tough job to do and I sure wouldn’t want it, pass or fail depends on his decisions.
rec'd for an incredible write up
Thanks for all of the great information
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
Thanks!
I hope this helps, come draft day
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks again!!!
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Feb 8, 2010 10:16 PM MST reply actions
No problem!
Thank you again for the War Room info
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 9:39 AM MST up reply actions
Even more DEs
Strangely, there were some names that I was thinking of when I noted that the DT list seemed incomplete and they’re still not part of the DE list.
An obvious one is Brandon Deaderick, who has now risen to a 4-5(rising). At 6-4, 296 lbs., and having played in a 3-4, he’s not likely to be overlooked by us.
Some of the other names don’t necessarily warrant inclusion on the list but I have a hunch that we’ll be calling some of them during the draft and recruiting them as UDFAs. There’s a few who may be drafted, such as E. J. Wilson, but most will have to go the FA route. Mostly it’s the potential DE34s that have caught my attention but there’s a number of OLB/DE hybrids who have fallen from contention for draft consideration. We shouldn’t forget about some of these players even though I wouldn’t expect them to make the list.
no goats, no glory.
Front 7
I think to upgrade the front 7 we need a true starting DG (as some prefer to call it). To get that from the draft will mean Denver draft a DG in the 1st or 2 nd round or steals a 3rd round. I’ve been kind of looking at what is labeled a DE in college but I realize that some college DT fit the bill also. I also read your comments on how Morgan upgrades 4 positions. Right now he is my favorite for a 1st round pick if he is there.
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
by 3nS on Feb 9, 2010 9:34 AM MST up reply actions
I agree
I think we need a run-stuffer first and foremost. And in my mind, any of the following could step in and start from Day One:
1. Derrick Morgan (1st)
2. Jared Odrick (2nd)
3. Arthur Jones (2nd/3rd)
4. Lamaar Houston (2nd/3rd)
5. Mike Neal (3rd/4th)
The following guys are right on the bubble of starting right away:
6. Tyson Alualu (3rd)
7. Alex Carrington (3rd/4th)
8. C. J. Wilson (3rd/4th)
Obviously, that follows the draft rounds pretty closely. Still, I think that we don’t necessaryily need to mortgage the (draft) farm to grab a top-end guy — depending on who’s also available. We are in a position of need on the D-line, but I would place O-line as a higher need with far less depth in the draft.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 10:10 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Sharpe, thanks for sorting out those who can contribute now.
That is a huge issue. I think too little attention is given to “who can contribute right away” on both the OL and the DL. Clady started but is very special. An OL draftee probably needs to be much higher in the draft to contribute immediately than a DL draftee. For these, our highest 2010 needs, we need help now. If the draftee can’t contribute now …then it indicates a free agency move to fill that need.
I attempted to find rookie data to correlate how high they are drafted with when they are prepared to start or even contribute in a meaningful way. Gave up due to my limited data mining skills.
Comment recommended, thanks
by el_DON_de_TAOS on Feb 9, 2010 10:27 AM MST up reply actions
I'm glad that's helpful!
Definitely agree that while we should stockpile all the talent we can on both lines, offense should be a higher priority.
I will add a caveat: I’m not considering the usual “learning curve” for the positions. I simply don’t know enough to do so. I am only taking natural talent, fit into our scheme, and how polished their game is into consideration.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 10:46 AM MST up reply actions
Reason
The only reason I said to take a DG in the first round is that OG and C tend to be selected low 1st or 2nd. So personally if Morgan is not there then I’d like to see them trade down and pick a Iupati or Pouncy. i think Pouncy is a greater need.
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
I still think that McClain, while not on the line
can significantly improve the effectiveness of the front guys. I’m still in favor of taking him if he’s there, and over Morgan.
I see McClain as the Suh of his position: once-in-a-decade prospect with excellent intangibles who can not only start but make an impact right away. This year’s draft is so deep at playmakers on the defensive line that we can afford to get top-tier talent at some other positions that are also areas of need and then get very solid talent with strong upside later on the D-line.
Ultimately, would I rather have Morgan in the first and Micah Johnson or Sean Lee in the 3rd/4th? Or would I rather have McClain in the first and Arthur Jones or Alex Carrington or Corey Peters in the 3rd/4th? Unquestionably, the latter.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 12:23 PM MST up reply actions
I'm compiling a list of the "just missed" guys
and I might do a post on that at the end of it all
Deaderick was definitely a “just missed”. NFLdraftscout seems to be alone in thinking he is a 4-5th round grade — most everyone else gave him a 6th or FA. I certainly grant you that his experience in a 3-4 and size/speed (4.9 reported 40) is a big plus. Still, what info I could find on him suggested that his upper-body strength needs some substantial improvement before he can take on double-teams. He seems a clear 5-tech LDG for us, and that position is rife with Broncos-style talent in the draft: Carrington, Wilson (C.J.), Alualu, Odrick, Peters, Houston, Neal… we would need to pass up/miss on several other players before I would look seriously at Deaderick.
Wilson (E.J.) had a fantastic Texas vs. the Nation game, but the competition on the whole was very sub-par. Still, he is on my radar as well come CFA time.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 9:54 AM MST up reply actions
well done, and a hypothetical question
excellent work as always.
I was hoping to get your opinion on a hypothetical question.
If Dumervil is traded for a late first and a third. I was wondering what you would do with those picks to our front 7.
Would you draft a Rush-LB to directly replace dumervil?
Do you believe there is enough talent on the team (ayers, moss, etc.) to replace Dumervil and only use one of those 2 picks on a front-7 player?
If dumervil is traded which 2 positions would you most want to upgrade and which 2 players would you add (assuming they would be drafted around their draft slot you stated)?
I am not "as sharp as a tack" ;-)
but IMO if Doom is not resigned then the 3-4 LB’s HAVE to be addressed high in the draft or big money in FA.
The reason Denvers run defense suffered late was that players wore down but mainly the LB’s started to miss assignments then tackles. I have ran the tape on Indy, Oak, Phil, and KC and the one thing that I see most is DL blocked and two LB’s together outside the gaps. Davis has to be upgraded (IMO Larsen), Doom/Ayers is learning, and I’M back on the fense on DJ.
My heart is hoping for McClain.
Almost agree
We need to make pass-rush a priority, but that doesn’t necessarily mean OLB/DE.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 8:12 PM MST up reply actions
If Dumervil is traded
Then a pass-rushing player is VERY high on my list. I am of the opinion that a credible and effective pass rush is very important, and upgrades the rest of your defense automatically.
Brandon Graham would be a superb replacement — maybe even an upgrade in a few years. Derrick Morgan would be an excellent pick as well, although he wouldn’t provide as much of a rush presence (at least not initially). George Selvie is a high-risk-high-reward pickup here. We could stick with the guys we’ve got at OLB (DE in a 5-2), and then add a pocket-collapsing presence on the interior. Brian Price would be my top choice there, so would Austen Lane. Corey Wooten would be a desperation pick at that spot, since his work against the run is very close to a liability.
My preference would be to grab McClain at 10/11, then Graham in the late first. After that, I would target the highest G/C I could in the 2nd, then target a CB with the first 3rd-rounder and an interior presence with the other 3rd-rounder. Then, I’m looking for WR, a T/G hybrid, and more D-line depth.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 8:03 PM MST up reply actions
to clarify
I’m not considering BPA or advocating we must pick up position X in round A. I’m answering the question with something a little more useful than “It depends on how the draft plays out” :)
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 9, 2010 8:09 PM MST up reply actions
I take it you like Alex Carrington? :)
And I agree, he has all the tools you look for in a 3-4 prospect. I think we will go for him in round three.
Another great piece Sharpe.
Thanks!
I’ll be upfront with my biases: I first saw Carrington in the Senior Bowl and became intrigued. Then I read some scouting reports and became interested. He was already well on his way to getting a 4 1/2 star and then I saw that he wants to be a clinical psychologist when he finishes his football career. That’s when he got a 5.
We psychology guys, we’ve got to stick together, you know? :)
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 10, 2010 10:33 AM MST up reply actions
Without seeing into the future
We obviously have no guarantees. But out of curiosity, what are your opinions on Julius Peppers as it relates to size? He’s 6’7, 283 or a little taller and lighter than a guy like Dunlap. I would think that his height helps distribute the weight more meaning he could bulk up just a hair to play the 5-tech, or maybe drop a few pounds to play outside.
The guy is so lean and muscular, such a physical speciman, couldn’t he almost stay right where he’s at and play any position but NT? Couldn’t he likely be moved around at will to truly force offenses to game plan against him in a 3-4? Has his body type ever done that? Is there a precedent for it?
Lots of questions, feel free to answer/skip whatever. Just curious. Great work btw.
Oh, I was thinking. Wouldn’t drafting a guy like Derrick Morgan basically be a re-do from drafting Ayers last year? It looks like you’ve found us a few great targets in rounds 3-4. Thanks for all the homework!
Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!
I don't know much about Peppers' skill set, let alone his motivation/drive/toughness/intelligence/leadership
and since the last question is a doozy, I’ll focus on what I know.
The Derrick Morgan/Robert Ayers question: I will say what I said earlier about Morgan —
Personally, I like him better than Ayers as a prospect and perhaps even as a polished play-right-now player. And I’m an Ayers apologist, so that says something
We are an amoeba 3-4 that adjusts to down/distance/personnel/opponent. We need players in such a scheme who can do many things well. Ayers is one such player, but is a work in progress. Morgan is more polished right now, and he provides more of a pass-rush than Ayers does. The bottom line: with Morgan and Ayers on the field, we would have more “good football players” out there than we would with Ayers and his opposite.
If we got Morgan, my thought would be to keep Ayers at RDE on rushing downs and rotate Dumervil on passing downs. Morgan would be an every-down presence at LDE, which would maximize the pass rush of both Ayers and Dumervil by providing a credible threat opposite.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 10, 2010 11:00 AM MST up reply actions
Well Done Sharpe!
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Thanks for taking the time to read it!
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 10, 2010 11:02 AM MST up reply actions
I'm curious:
No one has mentioned Dunlap yet. Not that I particularly want to start an argument, but is that just because he was overlooked or because the majority agree with my assessment?
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 10, 2010 11:03 AM MST reply actions
I've never really liked him
and his DUI before a HUGE game indicated to me that he’s not worth it. Extreme talent, horrible attitude.
by Sayre Bedinger on Feb 10, 2010 11:18 AM MST up reply actions
Great Article!!
I like to think of myself as a draft junky…but after reading this I hope we can draft Carrington on the second day of the draft. Nothing is better than having a high motor D-Lineman…they are harder to find that franchise QBs in my opinion. Too often D-Lineman take plays off and finding one that has the physical skills as well as a motor is a true rarity.
Absolutely
Like some people have mentioned, I’m easing up on guys who are 300+ lbs who have a suspect motor. I’m more concerned in such cases with their personality.
Are they tired because of the massive weight they are lugging around? Or are they tired because their heart really isn’t in it? Well, what do their grades suggest? What do their off-the-field comments suggest? What do their coaches say? Have they ever been benched? What do their teammates say? Have they won any awards related to character? What does their community work suggest?
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 10, 2010 1:49 PM MST up reply actions
Those were the days...
And you knew where you were then! Girls were girls and men were men, Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again…
:)
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 11, 2010 8:11 AM MST up reply actions
I’m a little late to the party, but awesome post nonetheless!
You obviously put tons of time into this, much appreciated. There are some guys in there projected in the 2nd and later rounds that seem like perfect fits for us. Carrington, Selvie, Graham, Lane…
Here’s my new dream draft:
1st round: Rolando McClain
2nd round: Maurkice Pouncey (Iupati if he falls that far, but he won’t)
3rd round: Carrington
I really like that lineup
I’m in the process of doing a post on the Centers, and the more I look at it the more I realize how god-awfully thin the 2010 crop is at that position. I doubt Pouncey will end up at #45, as the clear-cut best option in an incredibly weak class.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
by Sharpe as a Tack on Feb 11, 2010 11:16 AM MST up reply actions
Interesting. I thought there were a couple other good options… Tennant and Olson from Notre Dame? I guess we’ll find out in your next post!
re: availability of Centers
It’s often really tough to make statements about draft crops, and the Center position has problems that compound this. Also, there were a few more Centers — O’Dowd, Wisniewski — who were being looked at as being part of this crop but they remained in school.
Center is rarely a deep position although there have been some good crops in recent years. A comparison to last year’s crop of Centers might lead to the conclusion that this crop is weak but 2009’s crop was considered one of the best ever.
This is a numerically weak crop, but most of them are. The question is whether the existing supply of Centers meets demand. Strength of a crop is also dependent on when you pick, of shape (i.e., availability at each round).
Because we’re looking at low numbers, it’s a precarious drafting position for any team that wants to draft a Center at a particular range. IMO, Tennant and Walton are reasonable options after Pouncey but the list of starter quality Centers is short. For anyone hoping for a Center, I’d pay more attention to the UFA Guard/Center crop, and this is always true if you’re looking for starters. Also, don’t forget about Dustin Fry.
Curiously, we haven’t been particularly shy about drafting Centers, we’ve drafted Schlueter, Lichtensteiger, Eslinger and Myers in recent years. We’ve selected many but we don’t have anything to show for it despite emphasizing the postition.
no goats, no glory.
Thanks for the response, I always enjoy your input Colinski…
It does seem like our draft position has us in the “dead zone” for drafting a center… it will be interesting to see how Xanders and McD handle the situation.
Was it Tennant that had an awesome game at the senior bowl? Maybe we can grab him with our 3rd.
Centers' performances
I don’t recall anything on Tennant from the game but he was reported to have done well in practice. The only performance I recall was Ted Larson’s botched snap, which has apparently led to the decline of his draft stock.
BTW — the Guards and Centers are not necessarily different groups so don’t ignore possibilities that involve Guards moving to Center. Seth Olsen has already said he’s willing to move to Center. Also, there are a few players in the draft at other positions who’ve also been touted as Centers, such as Thomas Austin. Some of the FA Guards, such as Eugene Amano, are also able to slide over.
no goats, no glory.
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