Drew, A Feel Good Story, and A Broncos Connection

by BShrout on Feb 8, 2010 8:58 PM MST Comment 37 comments

With the Saints winning the Super Bowl, and Drew Brees winning the Super Bowl MVP, Drew has become the feel good story for the 2009 season. Now that I've had a couple of days to ruminate on the Super Bowl, have read the many great posts that have appeared, have had the opportunity to converse with another member of MHR, and because my knowledge of the draft is sadly lacking, I thought it might be fun to take another look at Mr. Brees, and the rather interesting connection he has with the Broncos.

More after the jump

Drew Brees

   Brees was projected by many pro-scouts to be drafted in the mid- to late 1st round. Evaluations of him had slipped slightly due to the perception that he had a relatively short stature for an NFL QB, a perceived lack of arm strength and a sense that he had succeeded in college in a system designed for him. He was picked by the San Diego Chargers with the 1st pick of the 2nd round of the 2001 draft.

   He played just 1 game in his rookie year. He then won the starting job from Doug Flutie in 2002. He was replaced by Flutie in 2003 after San Diego started 1-6. His continued future in San Diego became a question mark when the Chargers acquired Philip Rivers in the 2004 draft. Only River's choosing to hold out through most of training camp allowed Brees to start in 2004. Brees became a free agent after the 2004 season, but San Diego laid their franchise tag on him. No other team offered the 2 first round draft choices it would have required to take Brees away from the Chargers.

   Brees went on to have a career year in his 5th year in the league, throwing for 3576 yards and ending the season with an NFL 10th best passer rating of 89.2. He was injured during the final game of the 2005 season while trying to recover his own fumble in a game against the Broncos. After the season, San Diego offered Brees a contract that was heavily based on performance incentives. Brees took this to be a vote of no-confidence from the Chargers. When he demanded a better contract, and San Diego refused to budge, Brees met with other teams, eventually signing with the Saints.

Brees posted the following stats in his fifth year (after sitting out nearly a full year when you consider the 2001 and 2003 seasons):

Attempts	Completions	Percentages	Yards	Yards/ Attempts	Longest	TDs	Ints	Sacks	Rating	Yards/ Game
500 (7th)	323 (4th)	64.5 (7th)	3576 (9th)	7.15 (12th)	54 (36th)	24 (4th)	15 (6th Most)	14 (14th Most)	89.2 (24th)	224 (13th)

After moving to the New Orleans Saints, Brees took the Saints to the NFC Championship in 2006, where he lost to the Bears. The Saints missed the playoffs in 2007 & 2008. Then, in 2009, the Brees led Saints finished 13-3 and went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Broncos Connection

    Drew Brees has an unusual connection to the Broncos, beyond the fact that he played against them while the starting quarterback for the Chargers. He has a connection in Kyle Orton -- a connection that goes beyond the fact that both men graduated from Purdue University.

    Orton was projected by pro-scouts to be drafted in the middle of the 4th round of the draft due to concerns over accuracy of his deep throws and a slow release. He was perceived as benefitting from taking most of his snaps from the shotgun. He was described as being patient in the pocket and able to buy time for his receivers. Kyle was picked by Chicago in the 4th round.

    Orton became the starter in his rookie season due to a preseason injury to starter Rex Grossman and the extremely poor play of the #2 QB -- Chad Hutchinson. After a 1-3 start, while he learned to play primarily from under center, Orton led the team on an 8 game winning streak and ended up with a 10-5 record. The coaches insisted that they were pleased with Orton's play and that they had asked him to minimize mistakes and let the running game and the defense carry the team. Grossman returned to health in time to be the starter in Chicago's playoff game that year. Chicago signed Brian Griese to become the 2nd string QB following the 2005 season, and Orton did not see action in 2006. He played just 3 games in 2007 before winning back the starting job in 2008. Following a season in which Chicago came within a game of making the playoffs, Orton was traded to Denver.

    Orton went on to have a career year in his fifth year in the league, throwing for 3802 yards and ending with an NFL 14th best passer rating of 86.8. This despite having dislocated a knuckle on his throwing hand during the preseason, and later missing approximately 1/2 of a game due to an ankle injury.

Orton posted the following stats in his fifth year (after sitting out over a year when you consider the 2006 & 2007 seasons):

Attempts	Completions	Percentages	Yards	Yards/ Attempts	Longest	TDs	Ints	Sacks	Rating	Yards/ Game
541 (6th)	336 (10th)	62.1 (14th)	3802 (11th)	7.03 (16th)	87 (3rd)	21 (15th)	12 (17th Most)	29 (14th Most)	86.8 (14th)	238 (13th)

Here are Brees' and Orton's 5th year statistics side-by-side:

	Attempts	Completions	Percentages	Yards	Yards/ Attempts	Longest	TDs	Ints	Sacks	Rating	Yards/ Game
Brees	500 (7th)	323 (4th)	64.5 (7th)	3576 (9th)	7.15 (12th)	54 (36th)	24 (4th)	15 (6th Most)	14 (14th Most)	89.2 (24th)	224 (13th)
Orton	541 (6th)	336 (10th)	62.1 (14th)	3802 (11th)	7.03 (16th)	87 (3rd)	21 (15th)	12 (17th Most)	29 (14th Most)	86.8 (14th)	238 (13th)

The first thing that leaps out about this is how comparable the statistics are.

The second thing that jumps out is how relative statistics can be. Examples:

1)In 2005, Brees' 323 completions were good enough for 4th place in the NFL while Orton's 336 completions in 2009 were only good enough for 10th.

2)In 2005, Brees' 3576 yards was 9th best in the NFL, while Orton's 3802 yards in 2009 only ranked 11th.

3)In 2005, Brees' 24 TDs were good enough for 4th, while Orton's 21 TDs in 2009 could only muster a 15th place finish.

4)In two of the most telling example of relativity, in 2005, Brees was sacked 14 times -- the 14th most in the NFL that year. In 2009, Orton was sacked 29 times -- the 14th most in the NFL last year. In 2005, Brees threw for 224 yards/game (13th best), while in 2009, Orton threw for 238 yards/game (13th best).

Brees did not play in a playoff game until his fourth year. He did not win a playoff game until his sixth year (winning one game & losing to Chicago in the NFC Championship game). He did not make playoffs the next two years. Then finally, this past season he won the Super Bowl.

Orton positioned his team to make the playoffs in his first season, though he was replaced by Grossman (who had been projected to be the starter, prior to a preseason injury). He also had his team in a position to make the playoffs in his fourth year. It has been said in some circles that the Bears would have made the playoffs, had the defense -- after Orton led the Bears to the go-ahead touchdown with 11 seconds left -- not allowed the Falcons to get into field goal range with 1 second left, and Elam delivered the game winning kick for Atlanta. Next year will be Orton's 6th in the NFL. Could it be that that will be the season where we see him win his first playoff game?

Maybe, maybe not. A lot of it will depend on several things: can Orton continue the pattern of improving his game, can the Broncos o-line & d-lines hold up for the entire season, can the running game improve, can the offense quit leaving points on the field, can the defense play consistently for the full 16 games?

The parallels between these two former Purdue players is remarkable. Does this mean that Orton is destined to be the next Drew Brees? Who knows? We can only watch, wait, hope, pray and see.

Poll

It took Sean Payton and Drew Brees 4 seasons to build & lead the Saints to the Super Bowl. Are you as a Broncos fan willing to give McDaniels/Orton the same time frame?

Yes

46 votes

No

8 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

8 recs | Comment 37 comments

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Comments

That seems rather optimistic....

and I’m an optimistic person by nature.

I mean….Orton does not have a noodle arm….but brees…..I mean come on….much better athletically in my opinion.

I, by the way, am an Orton proponent. but Orton does not escape a sack as well as brees. He does not have the vision that brees has….and frankly….while Orton CAN be a SB QB….he is not breez……the accuracy is just not the same.

but I do think Orton can take us all the way.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison

"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble

by DenBronx on Feb 8, 2010 9:26 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

DoI agree that Orton is not Brees

nor McNabb, nor Cutler. . . etc, etc, etc.

What I do like about him is the steady improvement in his play each year which shows that he has not yet reached his potential.

So far as how far he can take us, only time will tell. From what I’ve heard here were people who believed that Brees would not be able to take a team to the Super Bowl.

So let’s wait and see what happens when McDaniels get some of the other offensive pieces into place.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 8, 2010 9:34 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

This....

And I think that Orton will become more comfortable in the pocket and buying time as he gets more comfortable with the system. He’s thinking too much, and I think that kills him. I don’t see a huge jump in athleticism from Brees to Orton, that’s not to say I think Orton is on level with Brees, just that I think he hasn’t had a chance.

That being said, I trust that McD has a better feel for how Orton is progressing within the system, and how much of the playbook was really opened up to Orton this year. I think Orton is our best option going into next year, but I wouldn’t be against drafting a QB if one that we like were to fall to us.

by Kgrone on Feb 9, 2010 8:06 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

That works for me too

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 9:15 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

A very

informative and interesting read. Both from Purdue. Both had good 5th year. The stats were great. Comparable.
Now is Orton destined to be the next Drew Brees? No. Could he continue to thrive in this system? Yes.
Best case scenario is he’s doing so good Brandsater or whoever we get this year can’t get him out of the starting lineup. LOL

"Just trying to win a MF game."

by Digger24 on Feb 8, 2010 9:32 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

That would be ideal.

The only point I’ve ever really pushed for Orton is that his statistics support the view that he is still developing, and that we do not yet know where his ceiling is. It might be that 2009 was his ceiling, but we won’t know that until after 2010 or 2011.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 8, 2010 9:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

pray is right

Sorry fellas but KO is never going to be as good as D. Brees. Doesnt have the feet, the athleticism, or even close to the accuracy of Brees. And Drew does it all standing only 6’ tall. Truly remarkable. And did anyone see the moment after the game with he and his son? You can go to you tube and watch it. Holding his son, whispering into his ear and kissing his hand. It was like they were the only 2 people on the field. The pride and tears welling up in Drews eyes. What a moment. Sitting their watching with my 1 and a half year old son on my lap I had one hell of a lump in my throat. You go Drew, if only you were wearing the orange and Blue. We can dream right?

by johnnyurrotten on Feb 8, 2010 9:54 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

It was truly a magical moment

And you could be right about Orton, only time will tell.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 8, 2010 10:00 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I have all the confidence in the world that we can win with Orton.

It’s the other players that have to step up and make the same statement. Brees couldn’t get there and win without the supporting cast and neither can Orton. You know, everybody says it’s Orton this or Orton that, but the TEAM is what wins SB’s. Thanks for the great work B

by bfree2bronc on Feb 8, 2010 10:41 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

yqw

And Amen to your points.

We still have several pieces to be put into place, and hopefully we’ll see some of them established during this off season.

I’m like you, I think Orton has more potential than most would give him credit for.

And the “team” philosophy is what McDaniels’ vision is all about (that, and winning playoff games LOL)

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 8, 2010 10:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree....

I was only refuting his breeslike…ness….ed….ing….er…

I made the statement that I am a Pro-Ponent of Orton (for those that don’t know that means I like him as our QB)

But do I see him ever having the vision that Brees has? no. I’ve seen far too many wide open Broncos just before Orton steps into a sack while looking the other way. This is correctable…and he will get better…he has not hit his ceiling….but Brees will probably end up as an HOF QB if he keeps playing at his current level. Orton….would need to continue to improve for the rest of his career to get to the same level that Brees is at today. A supporting cast would certainly be a step up…but I think most would agree that Brees escaped more sacks than Orton would have regardless of the line.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison

"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble

by DenBronx on Feb 9, 2010 7:30 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd tend to agree

I do have to wonder, though, how much of what happened in 2009 was the result of Orton’s first 4 years in the league — the Chicago coaches admitted to coaching Orton to not take chances, check down, take care of the ball and let the running game and defense carry the load. From what I’ve read, he was not challenged/asked/coached to be the hero who carried the team on his arm. Plus, his pre-draft report saw his ability to see the field as one of his strengths.

So how much of 09 was the result of Orton’s limitations, and how much was the result of ingrained habits taught to him? If what we saw was the former, there will be issues. If what we saw was the latter, he can be retaught.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 7:50 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think its both..

MCD first rule this year was dont turn the ball over. So he is basically being coached the same way he was in Chicago. If I was going to draw a conclusion to this I would say that the coaches on both teams see his limitation and wont push him out of his comfort zone. When he was pushed out of his comfort zone (games against PItt, Balt and KC) he threw multiple INTS.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Feb 9, 2010 9:41 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Could well be

It could also be that McDaniel’s basic philosophy is to play smart ball — which inherently includes not turning the ball over — which may be why he found himself less than enamored of Jay Cutler.

From what I’ve read about McDaniels, there is great attention to detail — each part of an offense play from the moment the players circle up in the huddle to the snap of the ball is expected to happen in a very specific way. When you’re learning a new system, any new system, the tendency is to keep it simple. I’ve seen NE run a fair number of plays that involve shifting the pocket to one side or the other, but not a lot of designed roll out plays.

The telling point will be this next year. If we see a great variety of plays called, and more movement, we’ll know which it was.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 9:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Forsure

I agree with you that this year will be telling. I’m definitely not in the Orton camp but i’m not sure if there are any upgrades available out there (that wont rob us of our draft picks). If Kevin O’Connell becomes available I would love to see what he can do. He was a third round QB that was drafted into MCD’s system.

I would be all for bringing him into camp and letting the two of them duke it out for the starting job

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 9, 2010 10:36 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you just made a very important point

If we’re going to change QB’s it needs to be for someone who

was drafted into MCD’s system.

Bringing in someone who needs to learn all of the terminology, methodology, plays and Denver players is not, IMHO, an upgrade — no matter how talented they are in their current system.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 10:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind

MCD went hard after O’Connell last year when he was released. I dont know much else about him.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 9, 2010 10:50 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Which supports both our points

O’Connell knows the system.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 11:01 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

What is O'Connell's status?

Kevin O’Connell becomes available I would love to see what he can do. He was a third round QB that was drafted into MCD’s system.

Orton, O’Connell and Branstater would be intriguing

The prophet Elijah told Ahab that the dogs would lick his blood, and so it came to pass, as you would imagine, since only the successful prophets are remembered.

by bradley on Feb 9, 2010 10:49 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

He is either the 3rd or 4th Qb with the Jets

If they decide to keep Kellen Clemens then O’Connell could be had.. If not he might be a bit harder to trade for

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 9, 2010 10:51 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

nice post though.

You put a lot of work into this. Its a good read

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

by johnnystarr on Feb 9, 2010 9:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

thank you

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 9:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I really hope

we haven’t seen Kyle’s ceiling…. The fact that he came to a new team and was (almost) immediately elected by his peers as captain shows that the people who count the most are behind him, that is, his teammates.

Great optimistic post B!

I also hope, that no matter what, we don’t EVER have to see Our second stringer come in and look as lost as Simms did – even if he remains Our #2, I hope he is more comfortable or whatever if it comes down to needing him in the game again. THAT sucked hard core – I had some optimism for Chris until I saw him (attempt to) perform in those two halves of football for Us when Kyle went down.

I saw it somewhere on another post today – but I have to say I would be perfectly fine with Brandstater as Our backup and some new rookie as 3rd string, after re-watching last preseason…… Damn, this off-season is going to take forever.

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot ( =

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Feb 9, 2010 10:29 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Amen, I hate the offseason

I’m clueless when it comes to draft prognostications. LOL

I can hardly wait for the OTA’s to start up. :)

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 10:37 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Brees had protection and weapons

That will be the main factor in how high Orton can go.

by admill on Feb 9, 2010 11:27 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Difference

Payton and Brees got to the NFC championship game their first year. McDaniels and Orton basically accomplished the same as the previous regime.

I don’t think you will see Orton or McDaniels here for four years unless they are in the plaayoffs, if we are floundering at or below 500, both of them will be long gone.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Feb 9, 2010 12:14 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

In this rapidly changing league, you could well be right.

By the same token, they could end up having a very good run together. There’s no real way to tell at this point in time.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 12:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Orton is no Brees but...

he doesn’t necessarily have to be. If you compare where the Broncos are going into 2010 and where the Saints were in 2006, we have more pieces to build around. An elite QB is an easy ticket to playoff success, but it isn’t the only ticket and isn’t always as sure a thing as solid talent from top to bottom. Just ask the Vikings and Colts. Hell, even ask the McDaniels from his days on the 2007 Patriots. Great players can get you there, but the most complete team that gives their opponent a number of things to combat usually holds the trophy in February. That’s how New England won 3 titles with a less flashy team than they had 2 years ago.

by Vortex7 on Feb 9, 2010 1:49 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Love this quote V7

can I use it? ;-p

the most complete team that gives their opponent a number of things to combat usually holds the trophy in February. That’s how New England won 3 titles with a less flashy team than they had 2 years ago.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by BShrout on Feb 9, 2010 1:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It all boils down to,

can Kyle Orton win us a Super Bowl? The answer is yes and I will attempt to show you how. First we have to take another SB as an example, SB42 with the NY Giants and NE Patriots. The Giants were heavy underdogs going in the game. They were a Wild Card team and the Pats…Well they were the Champs. The Giants’ mealy 10-6 record was good enough to get them in the playoffs and eventually Super Bowl Champs. The teams offense was 14th out of 32 teams with 373 pts scored. Their defense was 17th with 351 pts scoed against them. Their take away/ give away differential was -9. That’s right, -9. Eli Manning their QB threw for 3,336 yds for 56.1% completion. He was sacked 27 times and threw 23 TDs. His quarterback rating was 73.9, below what you would expect from an elite Super Bowl winning quarterback. The defense was the great either, but they somehow managed to be Champs. Their regular season wasn’t much unlike ours, when they lost, they lost big, 45, 35, 31, 41, 22 and 38 to the Pats to close the season. How ironic it was that they would redeem themselve in the Big Show. My point is, anyone can win on any Sunday if the right tools a some luck falls their way. I believe we can win Super Bowls with Kyle Orton and we will, but it takes a team not just Kyle. Because you see Kyle Orton was alot better in 2009 than Eli Manning was when he won the SB, alot better! It takes a team and anyone that says it’s the quarterback that get’s them there then they are just fooling themselves as far as I’m concerned. People need to quit being stupid and wise up, we have the ingredience, all we need is players willing to put it all together.

by bfree2bronc on Feb 9, 2010 5:14 PM MST reply actions 2 recs