2010 NFL Mock Draft

Quick thoughts on the draft before my mock:

1. Many people have us drafting 4 or 5 offensive linemen in this draft.  Not only will that never happen but it would also be the epitome of need forsaking value.  One rookie starter on the offensive line is enough for me.  You can't immediately fix our offensive line through the draft.  Most rookies do not start immediately.  

2. In my opinion, our entire draft depends on Ryan Harris and his health.  If he is gone forever, maybe Trent Williams (the best overall right tackle prospect) would be our #11 or maybe Roger Saffold at #48.  I would absolutely hate that but what can you do?

3. Tim Tebow will likely be a 1st round draft pick.  Bill Parcells and Tony Dungy, if I recall, among others, have said this.  Here is my thinking.  He is a fringe 1st/2nd round pick as of now already.  All he has left is his pro day, which he will probably do well at, and his interviews/work outs with various teams.  He can charm a snake!  My point is, he has nowhere to go but up.  If it wasn't for his Senior Bowl performance this would not even be up for debate.  

4. Don't you think McX thought about the 2010 draft during the 2009 draft???  Remember during the 2009 draft everyone, sometimes myself, thought we were crazy because we didn't address our defensive line?  Don't you think it is possible that McX was looking forward to the 2010 draft and knew there were many good defensive line prospects?  The 2009 draft was relatively weak, overall, besides LB.  The 2010 draft is supposed to be really strong at DT, OT, and RB.  If you look ahead to the 2011 draft, it looks to be really deep at WR, among other positions.  My prediction is that we will not address our interior offensive line the way many people want.  I think we will draft one, at most two O linemen but basically fill our LG and Center position through trade and draft, not just draft.  In my opinion, after Pouncey and Iupati, there is a SIGNIFICANT drop in interior line talent.  We should not reach just to fill a position of need.  

Trades: I'm hoping we trade Marshall but this draft does not reflect that.  This draft shows two trades.

Trade #1 - Tony Scheffler and a 2011 5th rounder to the Bengals for their 2nd round choice (#57 overall)

Trade #2 - Our 2010 6th and 7th rounder to an undisclosed team for their fifth round choice

1st Round (#11 overall) - Dan Williams NT.  

Nothing new here.  I am torn between McClain and Williams.  It's a more likely scenario that McClain is gone by this pick, disease and all, but you never know.  Dan Williams is the premiere run-stopper D-lineman in this draft and still has room to gain more muscle in his upper body.  Every team, besides the Chargers, have kept their NT.  The signing of Jamal Williams slightly decreases our chances at picking Williams, but I think it is still likely.  Dream scenario would be picking McClain with #11 and with #14 (from the Seahawks) picking Williams.  

Players on my first round short list (assuming Suh, McCoy, Berry, et al are off the board):

1. Rolando McClain ILB

2. Dan Williams NT

3. Mike Iupati LG

4. Brandon Graham OLB

5. Maurkice Pouncey C/G

6. Kyle Wilson CB

7. Jared Odrick DT

2nd Round (#48 overall) - Brandon Spikes ILB

This would be a very good value.  Spikes is terrific against the run and questionable in coverage.  I don't know how often he would be asked to cover.  Brandon was slow at the Combine in the 40 but was a top performer in the 3 cone drill.  Translated, short area quickness and weak straight line speed.  The second round pick is always the most difficult for me because there are so many directions we can go.  I think this pick is the most likely pick for us to go with a QB.  I don't imagine us getting another late-round QB this year.  BTW, if Spikes and his character concerns are deemed to be an issue, obviously he wouldn't fit into our plans.  Devin McCourty is on my shortlist because, among other reasons, he is possibly the best special teams player in the draft, kick returns etc.  

Players on my second round short list:

1. Brandon Spikes ILB

2. Tim Tebow QB

3. Cam Thomas NT

4. Terrance Cody NT 

5. Vladimir Ducaase OT/G

6. Colt McCoy QB

7. Devin McCourty DB

2nd Round (from Bengals #57 overall) - Toby Gerhart RB

I am assuming the players on my 2nd round short list are gone by now.  I watched this guy play so many times and I am confident he was the best running back in the country.  I am not stupid enough to say he is a better pro prospect than C.J. Spiller or Ryan Matthews.  I just think this is great value.  In my humble opinion he should have won the Heisman. Many people don't think RB is a need for us and I disagree.  I love Knowshon and he is obviously the #1.  I also love Buckhalter but I am not confident he can hold up with 10 - 15 carries a game.  Toby brings underrated speed and possibly the most power of any running back in the draft.  Assuming we tweak our interior offensive line, Toby would be amazing at 3rd and short and 4th and short opportunities.  He has the requisite character, toughness, intelligence, and competitiveness that McX is looking for.  

3rd Round (#? overall) - John Jerry RT/G

I love Jerry in the third round.  I would even consider him for a second round pick.  He has the requisite size and speed to fit our scheme.  He played right tackle early and was moved to right guard later in his college career.  Either Kuper or Jerry would have to move to left guard.  Depending on the prognosis of Ryan Harris, he could be an adequate to average fill-in at right tackle.  

Players on my third round short list:

1. John Jerry RT/G

2. Ben Tate RB

3. Donald Butler ILB

4. Jordan Shipley WR

5. J.D. Walton C

6. Arthur Jones DT

7. Linval Joseph DT

4th Round (#? overall) - Riley Cooper WR

Not sure if he will be around in the fourth but if he is I would jump all over him.  Good speed, great size, excellent athleticism.  This is the guy who recently gave up baseball and decided on football.  Made big catches in big games.  His hands are questionable but maybe with football as his #1 priority, that would change.  

Players on my 4th round short list:

1. Riley Cooper WR

2. Colin Peek TE

3. Jamar Chaney ILB

4. Eric Olsen C

5. Ted Larsen C

6. Joique Bell RB

7. Marshall Newhouse OG

5th Round (through trade; unknown overall) - Walter Thurmond CB

Living in Oregon, I watched Thurmond play many times.  He was a 1st/2nd round prospect before he tore his ACL. He played next to Jarius Byrd and actually looked better than him, in my opinion.  He is a special teams guy also.  Great cover corner and has very good ball skills.    

Recap - 

1. Dan Williams NT

2. Brandon Spikes ILB

2B. Toby Gerhart RB

3. John Jerry G

4. Riley Cooper WR

5. Walter Thurmond CB

Analysis: My draft is weak at QB, TE, DB, and special teams.  The draft is strong at spreading the talent around to various positions.  

Starters:

Offense:

QB - Orton

RB - Moreno/Gerhart

LT - Clady

LG - Jerry

C - Olsen/?/trade

RG - Kuper

RT - Harris

WR - Marshall, Royal, Cooper

TE - Quinn / Graham

Defense:

DE: Bannan

NT: Jamal Williams / Dan Williams

DE: Fields

OLB: Doom

OLB: Ayers

ILB: Spikes

ILB: D.J. Williams

S: Dawkins

S: Hill

CB: Goodman

CB: Bailey.