FanPost

A Little Coaching Perspective

    BroncoTILLIDIE wrote a very nice fan post called, "A Little Venting Needed."  If you haven't read it already, it is worth a look.  Anyhow, in that post there was a two-comment subthread that caught my attention.  Maxwellsdemon suggested that McDaniels' Win/Loss record be placed in the context of the other 2009 rookie Head Coaches.  McGeorge suggested it be placed in the broader context of the rookie HC's from 2008 as well as 2009.  Rather than sidetrack BroncoTILLIDIE's post, I decided to take the discussion a bit farther and look at the Win/Loss records of the new coaches from the last five seasons (2005-2009).  The results after the fold.

    The following table lists the coaching changes in seasons 2005-2009:

Team
Coach
Record
Notes
2005



Cleveland
Crennel
6-10

Miami
Saban
9-7

San Francisco
Nolan
4-12

St Louis
Vitt
4-7

2006



Buffalo
Jauron
7-9
3rd HC stint (Chi 1999-03, Det 2005)
Detroit
Marinelli
3-13

Green Bay
McCarthy
8-8

Houston
Kubiak
6-10

Kansas City
Edwards
9-7
2nd HC stint (NYJ 2001-05); made the playoffs, lost in the Wildcard round
Minnesota
Childress
6-10

New Orleans
Payton
10-6
Made the playoffs, lost in the Conference championship
New York Jets
Mangini
10-6
Made the playoffs, lost in the Wildcard round.
Oakland
Shell
2-14
2nd HC stint (LA Raiders 1989-04)
St. Louis
Linehan
8-8

2007



Arizona
Whisenhunt
8-8

Atlanta
Petrino
3-10

Atlanta
Thomas
1-2

Dallas
Phillips
13-3
5th HC stint (NO 1985, Den 1993-94, Buf 1998-00, Atl 03); made the playoffs, lost in the Divisional round
Miami
Cameron
1-15

Oakland
Kiffin
4-12

Pittsburgh
Tomlin
10-6
Made the playoffs, lost in the Wildcard round.
San Diego
Turner
11-5
3rd HC stint (Was 1994-00, Oak 04-05); made playoffs, lost in Conference championship
2008



Atlanta
Smith
11-5
Made the playoffs, lost in the Wildcard round
Baltimore
Harbaugh
11-5
Made the playoffs, lost in the Conference championship
Miami
Sparano
11-5
Made the playoffs, lost in the Wildcard round
Oakland
Cable
4-8

San Francisco
Singletary
5-4

St Louis
Haslett
2-10
2nd HC stint (NO 2000-05)
Washington
Zorn
8-8

2009



Cleveland
Mangini
5-11
2nd HC stint (NYJ 2006-08)
Denver
McDaniels
8-8

Detroit
Schwartz
2-14

Indianapolis
Caldwell
14-2
Made the playoffs, lost in the Super Bowl
Kansas City
Haley
4-12

New York Jets
Ryan
9-7
Made the playoffs, lost in the Conference championship
Seattle
Mora
5-11
2nd HC stint (Atlanta 2004-08)
St. Louis
Spagnuolo
1-15

Tampa Bay
Morris
3-13


    So, when we look at this data, we can see that following facts may be discerned:

1 -- There were 38 new head coaches during the last five seasons.
2 -- 8 of those 38 were not in their first term as an HC.
3 -- 13 (34%) of the 38 posted a winning record in their first season.  3 of those coaches were not in their first stint as an HC.
4 -- 5 (13%) of the 38 posted a .500 record in their first season.
5 -- 20 (53%) of the 38 posted a losing record in their first season.
6 -- 11 of the 38 made the playoffs.  3 of those coaches were not in their first stint as an HC.
7 -- There were 30 rookie head coaches.
8 -- 10 (33%) of the rookie HCs posted a winning record in their first season.
9 -- 5 (17%) of the rookie HCs posted a .500 record in their first season.
10 -- 15 (50%) of the rookie HCs posted a losing record in their first season.
11 -- 8 (27%) of the rookie HCs led their teams to the playoffs.

    What we can see is that McDaniels' 8-8 record is better than 53% of the new coaches over the last 5 years.  It was worse than 34% of the new coaches during the same period.  His record was better than 50% of the rookie HCs during this period.  It was worse than 17% of the HCs during the last 5 seasons.  Does this mean we should be happy with an 8-8 record?  Absolutely not.  Especially after a 6-0 start.  Should we despair and call for McDaniels to be fired.  Absolutely not.  After all, he was above average for rookie head coaches over the last 5 years.  He was above average for all new coaches over the last 5 years.  Having said that, we must also acknowledge that many of his decisions were unpopular with the fanbase, the epic 2-8 finish to the season left a sour taste in pretty much everyone's mouth, and most of us have looked at areas that need to be improved upon, if the Broncos are to reach the playoffs again.

    Where I find some hope is in three areas: (1)McDaniels has acknowledged that there were thing that the coaching staff needed to do differently.  Hopefully, he has learned from his first year and will be a better coach in 2010.  (2)I do not anticipate the team having to deal with a 40-50% turnover rate in the roster.  That should provide the Broncos with some continuity and the ability to work better as a team.  (3)The offensive/defensive schemes will be in their second year.  It would seem to me that having a year's experience under their belts should enable the players to better execute the game plans, and for the coaches to better discern how each player's skillset can be maximized.

Just a little something to think about.

Peace.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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