Rising and Falling of the Coach

by Topher Doll on Mar 18, 2010 1:26 PM MDT

BShrout posted an excellent article titled A Little Coaching Perspecitve about how rookie coaches have done in the past five years. And while I'm still a newcomer to MHR, I hope this post is helpful. This post is just an extension of his post, taking a look at how these new coaches did compared to the previous year and how they did their second year.

Team	Coach	Previous Season Record	Playoffs	Record	Playoffs	Second Season	Playoffs
2005
Cle	Crennel	4-12	N	6-10	N	4-12	N
Mia	Saban	4-12	N	9-7	N	6-10	N
SF	Nolan	2-14	N	4-12	N	7-9	N
St. L	Vitt	8-8	N	4-7	N	Fired
2006
Buf	Jauron	5-11	N	7-9	N	7-9	N
Det	Marinelli	5-11	N	3-13	N	7-9	N
GB	McCarthy	4-12	N	8-8	N	13-3	Y
Hou	Kubick	2-14	N	6-10	N	8-8	N
KC	Edwards	10-6	N	9-7	Y	4-12	N
Min	Childress	9-7	N	6-10	N	8-8	N
NO	Payton	3-13	N	10-6	Y	7-9	N
NYJ	Mangini	4-12	N	10-6	Y	4-12	N
Oak	Shell	4-12	N	2-14	N	Fired
St. L	Linehan	6-10	N	8-8	N	3-13	N
2007
Ari	Whisenhunt	5-11	N	8-8	N	9-7	Y
Atl	Petrino	7-9	N	3-10	N	Fired
Atl	Thomas	7-9	N	1-2	N	Fired
Dal	Phillips	9-7	Y	13-3	Y	9-7	N
Mia	Cameron	6-10	N	1-15	N	Fired
Oak	Kiffen	2-14	N	4-12	N	Fired
Pit	Tomlin	8-8	N	10-6	Y	12-4	Y
SD	Turner	14-2	Y	11-5	Y	8-8	Y
2008
Atl	Smith	4-12	N	11-5	Y	9-7	N
Bal	Harbaugh	5-11	N	11-5	Y	9-7	N
Mia	Sparano	1-15	N	11-5	Y	7-9	N
Oak	Cable	4-12	N	4-8	N	5-11	N
SF	Singletary	5-11	N	5-4	N	8-8	N
St. L	Haslett	3-13	N	2-10	N	1-15	N
Was	Zorn	9-7	Y	8-8	N	4-12	N
2009
Cle	Mangini	4-12	N	5-11	N
Den	McDaniels	8-8	N	8-8	N
Det	Schwartz	0-16	N	2-14	N
Ind	Caldwell	12-4	Y	14-2	Y
KC	Haley	2-14	N	4-12	N
NYJ	Ryan	9-7	N	9-7	Y
Sea	Mora	4-12	N	5-11	N	Fired
St. L	Spagnuolo	2-14	N	1-15	N
TB	Morris	9-7	N	3-13	N

So to better look at this, here are some points:

- Of these 38 coaches, 8 inherited a winning team. Of these 8, 2 improved while 1 stayed the same and the others dropped.

- Of these 38 coaches, 21 did better then the year before they started coaching, but only 6 made their teams a winning team rather then just, for example, improving from 2-14 to 5-11. So there is a 15% chance to lift you team out from below .500.

- Of the 38, 7 didn't get a second season. There is a 18% firing rate in the first season. 16 didn't stay longer than two seasons, so out of the 38, there is a 42% chance you won't last longer than two season, almost half.

- Looking at the season, 2005 was the worst season, all 4 are now not with those teams any more. 2006 was a better year, but not by much, only one coach managed to get a winning record. 2007 was an up and down season, 4 coaches fired, but the 4 remaining all made the playoffs in their first two years. 2008 was similar with some doing very well and others struggling. For having so many losing rookie coaches, 2009 saw very few firings, and only two new coaches with winning records.

- Of the 38, only 8 got their team to the playoff after not reaching it the previous season, 1 of them, Seattle, made the playoffs with the same record as the previous season when they didn't make it. Of these 8, only 1 made it back to the playoffs their second season. There is a 21% chance of reaching the playoffs after not reaching it the season before. But only a 3% chance of doing it twice.

- Of the 31 who stayed two seasons, only 5 improved every season. With only 4 maintaining a winning record for their first two season. There is an 14% chance to improve every season, and only a 10% chance to maintain a winning record for more then one season.

- Of the 38, 10 got their teams to the playoffs, 2 did it both their first and second year. Two made it to the Super Bowl in their first two years, Tomlin and Caldwell, but both those teams had appeared in the playoffs constantly in the past few years. Payton, won the Super Bowl in his 4th season, but was in and out of the playoffs over his career, making it twice and missing it twice.

- The teams with the most turn over in the past 5 years were: Miami, Oakland, and Miami with 3 new coaches, and St. Louis with 4.

These are just a few pieces of info, there is a whole bunch more info in this table. And sorry, for some reason I can't get borders on the table today.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Thanks Max

Interesting information to digest.

You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?

You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen

by johnnystarr on Mar 18, 2010 3:00 PM MDT reply actions

I try

I wouldn’t have thought of doing this without someone mentioning the idea first.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 18, 2010 8:43 PM MDT up reply actions

No need to apologize about the borders

Great job expanding upon BShrout’s article. Very interesting data. Rec’d.

My only suggestion would be to link to BShrout’s article instead of just mentioning it. That way if someone visits your post first, they can easily click to check out his.

Great spirits have often encountered violent opposition from weak minds. - Albert Einstein

Once we accept our limits, we go beyond them. - Albert Einstein

by c_style on Mar 18, 2010 3:16 PM MDT reply actions

Thanks

And done.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 18, 2010 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions

good stuff, thanks! rec'd

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Mar 18, 2010 3:36 PM MDT reply actions

Thanks, Max

You just saved me a ton of typing. :)

I really like the way you laid all of this out.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Mar 18, 2010 3:52 PM MDT reply actions

oh & rec'd btw

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Mar 18, 2010 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions

I just liked what you put out there

So I just added a few more columns to you table. Hope it helps.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 18, 2010 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions

Excellent

tremendous follow-on going around the site today. Inspiring.

There's a big hard sun, beating on the big people, in the big hard world.

formerly Styg-like

by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 18, 2010 4:10 PM MDT reply actions

With this

I just wanted to present the facts, but also to point out the while McD didn’t improve us, just the fact that we stayed the same is quite the feat.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 18, 2010 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions

Nicely Done

and rec’d.

by DoubleJay on Mar 19, 2010 9:01 AM MDT reply actions

Thanks

This had been something I was pondering

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Mar 19, 2010 9:35 AM MDT reply actions

There was too much info

For me to just talk about, so I made a table, list some points and hope people come to their own conclusions.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 19, 2010 9:46 AM MDT up reply actions

Good use of the socratic method ;-p

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Mar 19, 2010 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions

Haha

I’m a pretty opinionated person, but I try to be balanced.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 19, 2010 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions

You know the last thing we need is a revolving door of head coaches.

What we need and I believe we have him is a coach who is going to build a solid foundation around the team that plays hard. We see too many teams go through their coaches like a weaky faucet and they never really get the time to structure a winnng combination of players and coaches. Some never would and that is why owners like Pat Bowlen have been successful throughout their lives.

by bfree2bronc on Mar 19, 2010 11:07 AM MDT reply actions

It's very true

The best example to me is St. Louis, a team with a few very good pieces, but they can’t maintain stability, so their team continues to struggle, and they continue to lose. A pretty vicious cycle to be in.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Mar 19, 2010 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions