FanPost

Rising and Falling of the Coach



BShrout posted an excellent article titled A Little Coaching Perspecitve about how rookie coaches have done in the past five years. And while I'm still a newcomer to MHR, I hope this post is helpful. This post is just an extension of his post, taking a look at how these new coaches did compared to the previous year and how they did their second year.

Team

Coach

Previous Season Record

Playoffs

Record

Playoffs

Second Season

Playoffs

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Crennel

4-12

N

6-10

N

4-12

N

Mia

Saban

4-12

N

9-7

N

6-10

N

SF

Nolan

2-14

N

4-12

N

7-9

N

St. L

Vitt

8-8

N

4-7

N

Fired

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buf

Jauron

5-11

N

7-9

N

7-9

N

Det

Marinelli

5-11

N

3-13

N

7-9

N

GB

McCarthy

4-12

N

8-8

N

13-3

Y

Hou

Kubick

2-14

N

6-10

N

8-8

N

KC

Edwards

10-6

N

9-7

Y

4-12

N

Min

Childress

9-7

N

6-10

N

8-8

N

NO

Payton

3-13

N

10-6

Y

7-9

N

NYJ

Mangini

4-12

N

10-6

Y

4-12

N

Oak

Shell

4-12

N

2-14

N

Fired

 

St. L

Linehan

6-10

N

8-8

N

3-13

N

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ari

Whisenhunt

5-11

N

8-8

N

9-7

Y

Atl

Petrino

7-9

N

3-10

N

Fired

 

Atl

Thomas

7-9

N

1-2

N

Fired

 

Dal

Phillips

9-7

Y

13-3

Y

9-7

N

Mia

Cameron

6-10

N

1-15

N

Fired

 

Oak

Kiffen

2-14

N

4-12

N

Fired

 

Pit

Tomlin

8-8

N

10-6

Y

12-4

Y

SD

Turner

14-2

Y

11-5

Y

8-8

Y

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atl

Smith

4-12

N

11-5

Y

9-7

N

Bal

Harbaugh

5-11

N

11-5

Y

9-7

N

Mia

Sparano

1-15

N

11-5

Y

7-9

N

Oak

Cable

4-12

N

4-8

N

5-11

N

SF

Singletary

5-11

N

5-4

N

8-8

N

St. L

Haslett

3-13

N

2-10

N

1-15

N

Was

Zorn

9-7

Y

8-8

N

4-12

N

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Mangini

4-12

N

5-11

N

 

 

Den

McDaniels

8-8

N

8-8

N

 

 

Det

Schwartz

0-16

N

2-14

N

 

 

Ind

Caldwell

12-4

Y

14-2

Y

 

 

KC

Haley

2-14

N

4-12

N

 

 

NYJ

Ryan

9-7

N

9-7

Y

 

 

Sea

Mora

4-12

N

5-11

N

Fired

 

St. L

Spagnuolo

2-14

N

1-15

N

 

 

TB

Morris

9-7

N

3-13

N

 

 

So to better look at this, here are some points:

- Of these 38 coaches, 8 inherited a winning team. Of these 8, 2 improved while 1 stayed the same and the others   dropped.

- Of these 38 coaches, 21 did better then the year before they started coaching, but only 6 made their teams a winning team rather then just, for example, improving from 2-14 to 5-11. So there is a 15% chance to lift you team out from below .500.

- Of the 38, 7 didn't get a second season. There is a 18% firing rate in the first season. 16 didn't stay longer than two seasons, so out of the 38, there is a 42% chance you won't last longer than two season, almost half.

- Looking at the season, 2005 was the worst season, all 4 are now not with those teams any more. 2006 was a better year, but not by much, only one coach managed to get a winning record. 2007 was an up and down season, 4 coaches fired, but the 4 remaining all made the playoffs in their first two years. 2008 was similar with some doing very well and others struggling. For having so many losing rookie coaches, 2009 saw very few firings, and only two new coaches with winning records.

- Of the 38, only 8 got their team to the playoff after not reaching it the previous season, 1 of them, Seattle, made the playoffs with the same record as the previous season when they didn't make it. Of these 8, only 1 made it back to the playoffs their second season. There is a 21% chance of reaching the playoffs after not reaching it the season before. But only a 3% chance of doing it twice.

- Of the 31 who stayed two seasons, only 5 improved every season. With only 4 maintaining a winning record for their first two season. There is an 14% chance to improve every season, and only a 10% chance to maintain a winning record for more then one season.

- Of the 38, 10 got their teams to the playoffs, 2 did it both their first and second year. Two made it to the Super Bowl in their first two years, Tomlin and Caldwell, but both those teams had appeared in the playoffs constantly in the past few years. Payton, won the Super Bowl in his 4th season, but was in and out of the playoffs over his career, making it twice and missing it twice.

- The teams with the most turn over in the past 5 years were: Miami, Oakland, and Miami with 3 new coaches, and St. Louis with 4.

These are just a few pieces of info, there is a whole bunch more info in this table. And sorry, for some reason I can't get borders on the table today.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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