Don't Pass on Us: Franchise Quarterbacks in the Middle Rounds
by Cody Meiden on Mar 2, 2010 9:24 PM MST
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Going into the beginning of the 2009 season, the Denver Broncoswere a mystery to the NFL and to their fan base. No one knew what to expect. The Broncos had fired long time head coach Mike Shanahan, and brought in offensive genius Josh McDaniels to take over. Then, the biggest move of the NFL off season struck the heart of all Denver Bronco fans. McDaniels, dealing with an unhappy Jay Cutler amid trade rumors with the Patriots, dealt him to the Chicago Bears in the infamous Kyle Ortondeal. However, the deal went better than fans expected. Orton actually outperformed Cutler, but the Broncos yet again collapsed at the end of the season, finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs for the fourth straight year. Now, going into the 2010 offseason, the quarterback position still remains in question for the Denver Broncos. Kyle Orton will be back, and he will start again. Orton's the answer at quarterback for now, but the Broncos need a quarterback for the future, and they have a couple of options in this year's draft. Some argue that Tom Brandstater is our quarterback of the future, but I have my doubts and there's nothing wrong with a little healthy competition. So without further ado, I present the top three options the Broncos have for their franchise quarterback in this year's draft.
Tony Pike-Cincinnati
Tony Pike is in my opinion the best option the Broncos have in this years' draft. Pike played in a pass-heavy scheme similar to McDaniels at Cincinnati and was having an excellent year for the Bearcats before going down with shoulder injury. Pike is option one because while he's not spectacular, he's a solid starting quarterback. There are a few concerns about Pike, particularly his size and his arm strength. Pike is 6'6"225 pounds, which is a positive in this case as he will have no problem with seeing over the O-line even when McDaniels adds some extra size to it. However, there are concerns that he lacks the bulk to withstand the hit he'll take in the NFL. The biggest concern teams have is his arm strength. Many scouts and draftniks don't believe that Pike has an NFL-caliber arm, and I respectfully disagree. Pike has an average, if not slightly above average arm, and he can make all the NFL throws. He puts good velocity behind his throws and can hit all the routes McDaniels' offense requires. Arm strength is not a huge component of McDaniels' offense; most of his passing plays focus on short to intermediate throws that lead to yards after the catch and require a smart accurate quarterback to man the helm. Tony Pike has all the tools to excel in McDaniels' offense, and the Broncos would be wise to take himif he's available in the 3rd round.
Round: 3-4
John Skelton-Fordham
John Skelton is one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects in this year's draft. Skelton played Division II at Fordham University in the Bronx. For reasons unknown, Skelton received few scholarships coming out of high school, and Division I schools are kicking themselves over it. Skelton is the real deal. He's a big quarterback at 6'5", 243 pounds, and has all the physical intangibles to be a NFL quarterback. The biggest incentive for Skelton is that he has a cannon of an arm. Not quite Jay Cutler style of arm, but not far behind. The most impressive display of his arm was against Cornell, where, backed up on his own two yard line, Skelton hit a receiver almost 60 yards down field, in stride, for a Patriot League record 98-yard touchdown pass. Also, Skelton is very mobile, being able to throw on the run and pick up the first down with his legs. The concern with Skelton is that he played Division II, so teams are going to view him as a project, as well as his weight. We don't know if that size is a product of the weight room or if he just has problems keeping his weight down. Just something to keep an eye on. Skelton has all the physical skill to excel in the NFL, but it will take time, which is what puts him behind Pike.
Projected Round: 4-5
Sean Canfield-Oregon State
Sean Canfield is third in my rankings for no other reason than that Pike and Skelton are better options than him at quarterback. Canfield is a reliable, but unspectacular quarterback. However, at 6'4" 223, size is one thing we won't have to worry about. Out of the three quarterbacks I've talked about he has the weakest arm and a decent number of concerns. Canfield had a solid senior year, passing for 21 touchdowns to only seven interceptions with a 67.9% completion percentage. However, he struggled at the Senior Bowl and continues to struggle at the NFL Combine this week; his stock is dropping quickly. Sean Canfield is a southpaw reincarnation of our own Kyle Orton, but may be the most NFL ready prospect out of the three I've talked about. He played in an offense that wasn't far off from your average NFL offense, as Oregon State ran a very balanced pass-run attack. Canfield's comfortable under center, and at the very least would make a solid backup for the team that drafts him.
Projected Round: 6
Notable Snubs
Colt McCoy-Texas
Longhorn fans, I'm sorry, but your golden boy is most likely going to fail as an NFL quarterback. McCoy is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play college football, but he won't pan out for three reasons: offense transition, arm strength, and durability. The Texas offense is exclusively out of the shotgun. McCoy has never had to read a defense in his college career and doesn't have a lot of experience under center. There were aleady concerns over McCoy's weak arm, and after having suffered nerve damage in his throwing arm in the National Championship against Alabama, those concerns just got bigger. McCoy will probably end up being a career backup, but I would take Sean Canfield before I took Colt McCoy.
Tim Tebow-Florida
I don’t doubt that Tebow could make it in the NFL, I'm just not sure if it will be at quarterback. Tebow is a second round project quarterback who may eventually have to switch to a different position because of his physical ability and whether or not he gains the skills to be an NFL quarterback. It wouldn't be smart for the Broncos to use a high draft pick on a project who might not even be a quarterback in the NFL. John Skelton, or even Matt Nichols, another Division II prospect out of Eastern Washington, would be the wiser and more economical choice than Tim Tebow.
Now, none of these guy are true franchise quarterbacks, they are just prospects who I believe have the potential and ability to be franchise quarterbacks. I may be right, I may be wrong, only time will tell.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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I voted for John Skelton,
but I hope the coach takes a look at Zac Robinson Okla St. or Dan LeFevour C M. Kafka of North Western and Bill Stull of Pitt
Jarrett Brown
Why does everybody ignore this guy? He showed arguably the best throwing mechanics at the combine, has great arm strength and is accurate. He also has a little bit of mobility in him too. He’s also got good size at 6’4" 220.
He’s a good kid. Check him out.
Jarrett Brown reminds me of Jarius Jackson the 3rd string QB we had back in the day.
Remember #17? Ah yes, I had high hopes for that kid and he couldn’t ever cut the mustard. If we get a quarterback in this draft I hope McD has sense enough to get someone that can be a leader and make great decisions. From what I’ve read about Brown is that he isn’t as good as they have hyped him up to be. But, check him out over at Charleston News or his game day log and stats. May not be as good as Pat White
Jarrett and Pat White are apples and oranges. Pat was a runner who could throw ok. Jarrett is a passer who can run.
Here’s what I’m saying: he showed good leadership in college, and he has the physical tools you want in a QB. We could probably get him late in the draft which would allow McD to keep him behind Orton for a few years. With all his raw talent, McD could turn him into a hell of a QB in a few years.
Pike
was making sure he wasn’t under-throwing any of his receivers at the combine on the deep passes and that seemed to effect his accuracy. I’ll take Skelton.
From what I am hearing
shouldn’t Skelton be ahead of Pike in the ratings? I would rather have him out of all of them.
Interesting use of the term "Franchise QB"
To most people, a franchise quaterback is one who can lift the team on his shoulders and win no matter who is in the game. More to the point, a franchise QB is the guy who it all hinges on, and if you lose him you’re skating on thin ice. Peyton Manning, Rothlisberger, Rivers: these guys fit the bill as “Franchise QBs.”
The guys you list are condemned with faint praise. When I see terms like “solid”, “not spectacular”, and “project” I wonder how they can be “franchise QBs.” Skelton might in fact be the only one on the list who has a chance to meet the definition.
Not to say I’d be unhappy with Pike — I’ve watched him play the past couple years and I think he is pretty good and will make a fine QB. However, I’m also not sure he’d be an upgrade over Orton (not a bad thing, since I like Orton in the Bronco offense).
None of the above
Sean Canfield is the best of the three – but keep these two names in mind when the 7th round/UFA rolls around.
Tim Hiller – 6’4 229 – Western Michigan. Big guy, finished college in 3 years with a 4.0 GPA. From what I read, among the best in the draft at reading coverages. Questions concerning his arm and previously injured knees were answered this past weekend. Consistent delivery will be an issue and while he’s accurate – he’s not pin-point accurate.
Levi Brown – 6’3.5 229 – Troy. In a draft full of mediocre arms, his stands out. Very athletic, moves around very well. Impressed with great zip and accuracy on the short and intermediate throws at the Combine. Very quick, albeit awkard delivery. Lack of experience (only started 1.5 years at Troy) is the major concern.
I had planned on diagramming both of these guys further in a post – and I may – but times have been hectic. Still, I think these guys offer more possibility than Pike and Skelton (who both have big arms with shakey accuracy (in Pike’s case shakey health)) and Canfield’s poor arm strength and footwork.
Pike has shakey arm/health?
Really? I hadn’t realized that Pike’s accuracy was shakey when he was going 211/338 (62%) for 2520 yards with 6 ints over 10 games. Or perhaps you’re talking about the broken arm that kept him sideline for a couple games while the rod they put into healed up: as far as I know that has been his only injury, and he and the Cincinnati docs agreed to leave the rod in place until he was drafted and his future team decided what to do about the rod. Certainly not enough of a history to deem his health “shakey.”
by DCJ on Mar 3, 2010 2:01 PM MST up reply actions
Um, yes?
In 2008 Pike missed 2 games and parts of 4 others with injuries including a broken left forearm – the same forearm he injured this past season. Missing 6 games and parts of 4 others in 2 years isn’t exactly an injury liability – but I think shakey is accurate especially when you reinjure the same body part 2 years in a row.
Speaking of “accurate” – Pike isn’t terrible, but again “shakey” fits. Every report I’ve read has him missing high a lot and forcing balls in the middle. Here is an excerpt from Scout.com’s few of him at the combine.
“After a very solid set of practice performances during Senior Bowl week, much was expected from Pike during the throwing session at the NFL combine. Unfortunately, he didn’t deliver. Pike was all over the place with his accuracy and his throwing mechanics were poor. Quarterbacks who have poor or inconsistent mechanics will take power off their throws. Pike seemed to be changing his delivery for some reason on some of his "
Additionally, Draft Scout, for instance, says this about his tape:
Recognizes defense’s weakness and exploits it. Height allows him to survey the field and find second or third option when patient, but often bird-dogs primary option, allowing defenders to knock down passes or jump routes. Doesn’t recognize zone corners or safeties waiting for his late throws. Puts balls into traffic, putting his receivers at risk over the middle, or throws across his body over the middle when trying to make a play. Floats passes down the middle, allowing safeties into the play. Can throw before his receiver makes his break on out routes. Needs to sell ball and pump fakes better.
In case you were wondering, Draft Scout also says this about his injuries
“Durability is a major concern given his lanky frame and injury history. Missed four games in 2009 after needing surgery to replace a damaged a protective six-inch plate already inserted in his left (non-throwing) arm from a break occurring in 2008. "
I’m not trying to bully you or Tony Pike (who I liked in college) nor am I saying NFL Draft Scout and Scout.com are know-alls (though other sites have similar things to say). I’m just saying that I’ve read a lot and am obviously not as enthusiastic about Pike as you seem to be – especially in the middle rounds.
Nice article, CM.
I didn’t know about the damage to Colt McCoy’s arm. Too bad. He seems like a good kid.
I am with bfree2 in hoping that the coaches take a look at Zac Robinson. Zac made Dez Bryant look good at OK State.
Thanks for the Comments
To the questions about other quarterbacks, Zac Robinson is a guy I forgot about and would probably rank ahead of Canfield. Robinson’s a Division I version of Skelton without the cannon arm. Jarrett Brown is another project guy, and I don’t see the point of spending a second round pick on a project. Guys like Hiller and Brown will likely be career backups.
About my “definition” of a franchise quarterback, I’ll explain it in the edited version of this paper that will be uploaded shortly.
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