Answers in Search of a Question: Post-Elway Era Drafts (1999-2008)

"We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself." -- Lloyd Alexander.

    "With the 61st pick of the draft, the Denver Broncos select Paul Toviessi, Defensive End, Marshall"  The Broncos select who??  Leroy Fields?  Ahmaad Galloway?  Clint Mitchell?  Aaron Hunt?  Who are these people?

    This edition of ASQ has arisen from a number of comments that I've seen in threads, both this year and last year, in which the suggestion has been made that at least a portion of Denver's problems over the last few years have their origins in the drafting strategy/choices of Mike Shanahan's staff.  That may or may not be an accurate fact.  It can be helpful when planning for where you want to go, to take a look back at where you came from.  Ultimately, in regards to the draft, what can be said is that every draft choice does affect a team, its strategies, and its future.  If nothing else, picking one person precludes picking a different person in that spot.  Think anyone in Indianapolis is unhappy that the Colts selected Peyton Manning rather than Ryan Leaf?  Anyone believe that San Diego doesn't wish they had made a different use of their first pick in that same draft?  Some draftees will go on to long and storied careers which place them firmly in the legendary lore of the team, while others will become little more than a footnote in the team's history.  Who are these young collegians who set their sights on becoming the next NFL legend at their position?  Who are the ones that the Broncos saw as the next, best cog for the Broncos' machinery?  More after the fold.

    Since John Elway retired after the 1998 season, in the 7 rounds of the regular NFL draft each year, the Broncos have selected 92 young college prospects to come and become Broncos.  They have hailed from such football powerhouses as Oklahoma, USC and Michigan, and from smaller schools such as TCU and Hawaii.  They all came with plans to become NFL football players of renown.  This article will be focus upon the 82 collegians selected in the 10 years between Elway and McDaniels.

    Every team begins the draft with a base set of 7 picks -- 1 per round.  Through trades, and NFL rules like Restricted Free Agent tendering, a team may gain additional picks.  Theoretically, there is no limit to the number of picks a single team may hold within a single draft.  A team may also be awarded up to 4 compensatory picks in any given draft.  Compensatory picks are made at the end of rounds 3-7.  These picks are given to teams who lost more free agents who meet specific criteria than they gained during the previous year's free agency period.  Teams may also be awarded compensatory picks if they had an even exchange in free agents, but lost higher valued FA's than they gained.  These picks are awarded at the NFL Annual meeting.

    In the ten years between Elway and McDaniels, Denver had a total of 82 picks.  I chose to not attempt to determine which picks were among Denver's original 7 picks for any given year, which were compensatory picks, and which were acquired through trades.  Ultimately, it is not particularly significant how the picks were acquired but rather how the picks were used. The picks can be broken down in multiple ways: by Year, by Round, and by Position.

Year	# of Picks	Round	# of Picks	Position	# of Picks
1999	12	1	9	QB	4
2000	10	2	13	RB	9
2001	6	3	10	FB	1
2002	8	4	15	WR	14
2003	10	5	10	TE	5
2004	10	6	11	OT	3
2005	6	7	14	OG	6
2006	7			C	3
2007	4			DE	10
2008	9			DT	6
				LB	5
				DB	14
				K	1
				P	1

A few things stand out when this data is examined. 

    First, the Broncos had 10 or more picks in 4 years (1999, 2000, 2003, and 2004).  Denver had 3 years in which they held fewer than the base set of 7 picks (2001, 2005 and 2007).  The Broncos had a remarkably few picks (4) in 2007.  Denver's options were extremely limited by having that small a number of picks in 2007.

    Second, it is interesting to note how many of Denver's picks occurred in the later rounds.  The three largest rounds, in number of picks, were the 7th (14), the 4th (15) and the 2nd (13).   Denver had 1 year (2005) when they didn't have a 1st round pick.

    Third, 34% of Denver's picks have been spent on WR (14) and DB (14).  20% of the Broncos picks have been on the defensive line (10 DEs & 6 DTs).  Thus we can see that over the last 10 years, over 50% of Denver's picks have been spent on 4 positions.  The large number of DBs and D-linemen may be due in part to the turnover in Defensive Coordinators.

    Fourth, 45 (54.8%) of Denver's 82 draft picks were used on offensive players.  This may well be a result of Shanahan's interest in the offense.  I remember hearing one of the Broncos' defenders had remarked that he felt like the defense was treated like second class citizens.

    Another way the drafts can be looked at would be to examine which positions were drafted in which rounds.  When we take this approach we find:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
QB	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
RB	0	2	1	2	1	1	2
FB	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
WR	1	2	2	2	3	3	1
TE	0	1	0	0	0	2	2
OT	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
OG	0	1	0	3	2	1	0
C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0
DE	1	2	2	2	1	1	1
DT	0	1	0	3	1	0	1
LB	2	2	0	0	0	1	0
DB	2	2	4	2	2	0	2
K	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
P	0	0	0	1	0	0	0

What can we glean from this information?

    First, OT, LB and DB were the most common 1st round choices, comprising 2/3 of the Denver's 9 1st round picks.  QB, WR and DE make up the rest of the 1st round choices.  Interestingly enough, 44.4% of the Bronco's 1st round picks were spent on defensive players.  Denver only spent a single 1st round pick on a QB. 

    Second, rounds 2-5 were evenly split between offensive and defensive picks with 24 on each side of the ball.  Rounds 6 & 7 were heavily invested in the offensive side of the ball -- 18 offensive picks to 7 defensive.

    Third, 3/4 of the QBs were taken in the 7th round.  7/9 of the RBs were taken in the 3rd round or later -- 2/3 of the RBs were taken in the 4th round or later.  Only 1 FB was taken -- in the 7th round.  11/14 of the WRs were taken in the 3rd round or later.  4/5 of the TEs were taken in the 6th & 7th rounds.  2/3 of the OT were taken in the 1st round.  6/7 of the OG were taken in the 4th through the 6th round.  2/3 of the Cs were taken in the 6th round -- none were taken earlier than the 4th round.  The DEs were spread throughout the draft, though 60% of them were taken in the 2nd through 4th rounds.  1/2 of the DTs were taken in the 4th round.  4/5 of the LBs were taken in the 1st or 2nd round.  8/14 of the DBs were taken in rounds 1-3.  No kicker was taken before the 4th round.

    There is one final way to look at these players: their longevity as Broncos.  In other words, how long did each player remain a Bronco?  Did they move on to other teams?  How many years were they a primary starter?  Did they play well enough to be selected for the Pro Bowl?  Where they so exceptional that they were selected as an All Pro player?  The statistics in the tables has been drawn from pro-football-reference.com.  The following tables -- which are quite lengthy, since there are 82 players to look at -- have the following pieces of informaiton:

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Obviously, the player's name	The player's position	The round in which the player was taken	# of years the player played for the Broncos	# of years player was a primary starter at his position for the Broncos	# of games the player played for the Broncos	# of times the player was voted All Pro as a Bronco.	# of times the player was selected for the Pro Bowl as a Bronco.	Did the player play for any other teams?

Please remember: These statistics reflect only the time each player spent as a Bronco.  This is important since many of the players moved on to other teams.  Also please note that the data from pro-football-reference.com does not include the 2009 stats for the 2008 draft class.  I am  not certain why this is so, and have sent a note to the site requesting an update.

DRAFT CLASS OF 1999

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Al Wilson	LB	1	8	8	125	1	5	No
Montae Raegor	DT	2	4	0	45	0	0	Yes
Lennie Friedman	OG	2	3	1	33	0	0	Yes
Chris Watson	DB	3	1	0	14	0	0	Yes
Travis McGriff	WR	3	3	0	34	0	0	No
Olandis Gary	RB	4	4	1	35	0	0	Yes
David Bowens	DE	5	1	0	16	0	0	Yes
Darwin Brown	DB	5	0	0	0	0	0	No
Desmond Clark	TE	6	3	0	41	0	0	Yes
Chad Plummer	WR	6	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Billy Miller	TE	7	2	0	22	0	0	Yes
Justin Swift	TE	7	0	0	0	0	0	Yes

    There were 12 players selected in the 1999 draft.  Three players (Brown, Plummer, Swift) did not make the team; two of those (Plummer, Swift) ended up with other teams.  9 players ended up player for other teams after playing for the Broncos.  Three players (Wilson, Friedman, Gary) won starting positions for at least 1 year.  1 player (Wilson) was voted to the All Pro team.  1 player (Wilson with 5 trips) was voted to the Pro Bowl.  The average number of years played for the Broncos (not counting the 3 players who did not make the team) was 3 years.  Wilson had the longest tenure at 8 years.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2000

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Deltha O'Neal	DB	1	4	2	61	0	1	Yes
Ian Gold	LB	2	7	4	99	0	1	Yes
Kennoy Kennedy	DB	2	5	4	73	0	0	Yes
Chris Cole	WR	3	3	0	35	0	0	No
Jerry Johnson	DT	4	1	0	9	0	0	No
Cooper Carlisle	OG	4	7	2	95	0	0	Yes
Muneer Moore	WR	5	0	0	0	0	0	No
Mike Anderson	RB	6	5	3	74	0	0	Yes
Jarious Jackson	QB	7	4	0	5	0	0	No
Leroy Fields	WR	7	0	0	0	0	0	No

    There were 10 players selected in the 2000 draft.  2 players (Moore, Fields) did not make the team.  5 players (O'Neal, Gold, Kennedy, Carlisle, Anderson) played for other teams after playing for the Broncos.  5 players (O'Neal, Gold, Kennedy, Carlisle, Anderson) won starting positions for two or more years.  None of this class was elected to the All Pro team.  Two players (O'Neal, Gold) were elected to the Pro Bowl.  The average tenure of this class (not counting Fields & Moore who did not make the team) was 4.5 years.  Gold had the longest tenure at 7 years.  A larger percentage of the 2000 draft class stayed with the Broncos for a longer average tenure than the 1999 class.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2001

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Willie Middlebrooks	DB	1	4	0	51	0	0	Yes
Paul Toviessi	DE	2	0	0	0	0	0	No
Reggie Hayward	DE	3	4	1	47	0	0	Yes
Ben Hamilton	OG	4	7	6	111	0	0	No
Nick Harris	P	4	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Kevin Kasper	WR	6	3	0	27	0	0	Yes

    The 2001 class was one of the smaller draft classes during the time we are considering.  Two players (Toviessi, Harris) did not make the team; Toviessi did not make the team due to injury issues, Harris was cut, but picked up by another team.  3 of the 4 remaining players went on to play for other teams.  Only 2 players (Hayward, Hamilton) were able to win starting positions.  The average tenure of this draft class (not counting Toviessi & Harris) was 4.5 years.  Hamilton had the longest tenure at 7 years.  None of this class has been selected to the All Pro team, nor to the Pro Bowl.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2002

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Ashley Lelie	WR	1	4	3	64	0	0	Yes
Clinton Portis	RB	2	2	2	29	0	1	Yes
Dorsett Davis	DE	3	1	0	14	0	0	No
Sam Brandon	DB	4	5	1	63	0	0	No
Herb Haygood	WR	5	1	0	4	0	0	No
Jeb Putzier	TE	6	4	0	41	0	0	Yes
Chris Young	DB	7	2	0	21	0	0	No
Montsanto Pope	DT	7	4	1	48	0	0	No

    The class of 2002 is the first of the classes under consideration in which all of the draft choices made the team.  4 of the players (Lelie, Portis, Brandon, Pope) went on to secure starting positions.  Only 3 of these draftees (Lelie, Portis, Putzier) went on to play for other teams.  1 player (Portis) was selected for the Pro Bowl.  The average length of this class' tenure was 2.9 years.  Brandon had the longest tenure at 5 years, though 3 players (Lelie, Putzier, Pope) were close seconds with 4 years.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2003

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
George Foster	OT	1	4	3	49	0	0	Yes
Terry Pierce	LB	2	2	0	18	0	0	No
Quentin Griffin	RB	4	2	0	16	0	0	No
Nick Eason	DT	4	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Bryant McNeal	DE	4	0	0	0	0	0	No
Ben Claxton	OG	5	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Adrian Madise	WR	5	1	0	11	0	0	No
Aaron Hunt	DE	6	0	0	0	0	0	No
Clint Mitchell	DE	7	0	0	0	0	0	No
Ahmaad Galloway	RB	7	0	0	0	0	0	No

    This would appear to be the most disappointing class of the post-Elway era.  There were 10 collegians drafted.  6 out of the 10 (Eason, McNeal, Claxton, Hunt, Mitchell, Galloway) failed to make the team.  Only 2 of those 6 (Eason, Claxton) caught on with other teams.  Of the 4 players that made the team, only Foster became a starter.  None of this class made it to the Pro Bowl, nor were any selected to the All Pro Team.  The average tenure for the 4 who made the team was 2.3 years.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2004

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
D.J. Williams	LB	1	6	6	91	0	0	No
Tatum Bell	RB	2	4	1	49	0	0	Yes
Darius Watts	WR	2	2	0	22	0	0	No
Jeremy LeSueur	DB	3	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Jeff Shoate	DB	5	2	0	14	0	0	No
Triandos Luke	WR	6	1	0	10	0	0	No
Josh Sewell	C	6	0	0	0	0	0	No
Matt Mauck	QB	7	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Brandon Miree	RB	7	0	0	0	0	0	Yes
Bradlee Van Pelt	QB	7	1	0	3	0	0	No

    This would appear to be another disappointing draft class.  Of the 10 players selected, 4 (LeSueur, Sewell, Mauck and Miree) never played for Denver.  3 of those (LeSueur, Mauck, Miree) were picked up by other teams.  Only 2 of the 6 (Williams, Bell) who made the team played for more than 2 seasons.  Only 2 (Williams, Bell) won starting positions.  The average tenure for the 6 Broncos from this draft class was 2.7 years.  There were no All Pro nor Pro Bowl Players among this group.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2005

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Darrent Williams	DB	2	2	2	27	0	0	No
Karl Paymah	DB	3	4	0	60	0	0	Yes
Domonique Foxworth	DB	3	3	0	46	0	0	Yes
Maurice Clarett	RB	3	0	0	0	0	0	No
Chris Myers	OG	6	3	1	41	0	0	Yes
Paul Ernster	K	7	2	0	18	0	0	Yes

    The class of 2005 will be forever etched in Broncos' fans' memory for two things: the untimely shooting death of the rising young star, Darrent Williams, and the failed Maurice Clarett reclamation project.  Though a small draft class, this one began by showing promise -- 5 out of the 6 (all except Clarett) made the team.  5 of the 6 lasted more than a single year.  It is interesting to note that 1/2 of the draft picks were used on DBs in this draft.  It is also interesting to note that only 2 (Williams, Myers) won starting positions.  The average tenure for this group was 2.8 years.  Unfortunately, none of this group made the Pro Bowl, or were selected to the All Pro team.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2006

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Jay Cutler	QB	1	3	2	27	0	1	Yes
Tony Scheffler	TE	2	4	1	56	0	0	No
Brandon Marshall	WR	4	4	2	61	0	2	No
Elvis Dumervil	DE	4	4	2	61	1	1	No
Domenik Hixon	WR	4	1	0	4	0	0	Yes
Chris Kuper	OG	5	4	2	35	0	0	No
Greg Eslinger	C	6	0	0	0	0	0	No

    The class of 2006 followed the same sort of pattern as earlier draft classes.  Only 1 player (Eslinger) failed to make the team.  Only 2 players (Hixon and Cutler) went on to other teams.  Among the players that remained with the Broncos, 5 (Cutler, Scheffler, Marshall, Dumervil, Kuper) became starters.  Their average tenure was 3.3 years -- this is not a surprising number since the maximum any of them could have been Broncos is 4.  3 players (Cutler, Marshall and Dumervil) won Pro Bowl honors.  1 (Dumervil) was voted All Pro.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2007

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Jarvis Moss	DE	1	3	0	19	0	0	No
Tim Crowder	DE	2	2	0	19	0	0	Yes
Ryan Harris	OT	3	3	1	27	0	0	No
Marcus Thomas	DT	4	3	0	27	0	0	No

    This was the smallest of the draft classes in the time period we are considering.  It has done very well with draftees staying with the team -- only Crowder has moved on.  1 player (Harris) secured a starting position.  There were no All Pro or Pro Bowl honors among this group.  The average tenure (realizing that there is a maximum of 3) was 2.75.

DRAFT CLASS OF 2008

Name	Pos	Rd	Yrs	St	G	AP	PB	Other
Ryan Clady	OT	1	2	1	16	1	1	No
Eddie Royal	WR	2	2	1	29	0	0	No
Kory Lichtenstein	C	4	1	0	16	0	0	No
Jack Williams	DB	4	2	0	17	0	0	Yes
Ryan Torain	RB	5	1	0	2	0	0	No
Carlton Powell	DT	5	2	0	0	0	0	No
Spencer Larsen	LB	6	2	0	19	0	0	No
Josh Barrett	DB	7	2	0	14	0	0	No
Peyton Hillis	FB	7	2	1	22	0	0	No

    With the class of 2008, we begin to see Denver holding on to draft picks (after the 2007 season where we only had 4) and using them to develop the team.  Out of the 9 picks we had in 2008, all players made the team.  Since then, however, 2 (Lichtenstein, Torain) only played a single year and neither player moved on to another team.  1 player (Williams) played well, but eventually changed teams.  1 player (Powell) has had to deal with being sidelined by injuries.  The rest of the players have all made contributions to the Broncos.  1 player (Clady) has won both All Pro and Pro Bowl honors.  The average tenure among this group is 1.8 years (out of a possible 2 years).

    So, what do we make of all of this?  There's a lot of data, and a number of inferences which could be made.  but first, let's summarize what we've found (for those who did not choose to wade through the tables):  The Broncos selected 82 players in the draft between 1999 and 2008.  19 (19%) draft picks failed to make the team.  36 (44%) players eventually ended up on other teams.  28 (34%) were able to win a starting position for the Broncos.  3 players were awarded All Pro honors.  7 players won Pro Bowl honors.  The average tenure of this group of players has been 3.1 years.  According to the NFLPA, the average NFL career is 3.5 years. 

    To gain a small comparison, let's take a brief look at the Indianapolis Colt.  The Colts qualify as a "winning" team given the fact that between 1999 and 2008, they have had only 1 year with less than 10 wins.  They've had 4 years with 12 wins, 2 years with 13, and 1 with 14.  During the time period we looked at, the Colts drafted 81 players (1 less than the Broncos).  8 (10%) of the draftees failed to make the team.  27 (33%) players eventually changed teams.  40 (49%) players became starters.  4 players won All Pro honors.  10 won Pro Bowl honors.  This suggests that the Broncos might have been able to do better.

    All of this leaves us with a fair number of questions:  How do we judge effective draft strategies?  What criteria do we use: longevity?  Impressive stats?  Non-tangible contributions to the team?  Winning a starter's role?  Pro Bowl selection?  All Pro selection?  Win-Loss record each year?  Just what does it mean to say we had a successful draft?

    Another issue that arises is: as mentioned above, the NFLPA has stated that the average NFL career is 3.5 years.  Yet, we are told that we can not judge whether or not a rookie has reached his potential for approximately 3 years.  This would seem to create a bit of a dilemma.  If we can't tell how a draftee will pan out until his third year, and the average career is 3.5 years, chances are we'll only have that player for 1/2 of a year once we figure out whether or not we should keep him.

Some things that bothered me, after compiling this data

(1)The fact that almost 20% of the Broncos' draft picks did not even make the team.  It would be interesting to see to see what the league-wide average is on that.  Indianapolis, for example, only had about 10% of their picks fail to make the team during that period, so my suspicion is that the league average is somewhat lower than Denver's result.  Perhaps a future edition of ASQ might address this, if an enterprising member doesn't happen to take it up in a fanpost (hint hint). 

(2)The fact that 44% of Denver's draft picks eventually ended up playing for other teams.  Again, it would be interesting to see what the league-wide average is on that.  Again, my suspicion is that the Broncos had a higher than average turnover.  Interestingly enough, however, is the break out of the players who left in terms of offense vs defense.  The situation in Denver has often been portrayed as one in which -- in essence -- Shanahan doted on the offense and tolerated the defense.  Of the 36 players who left Denver and went to another team (whether via being released, through free agency, or being traded), 20 of them were from the offensive side of the ball.

(3)The fact that 16 out of the 28 draftees that won starting positions, ended up playing for other teams.

(4)The fact that the average tenure with the Broncos for our draftees during this period was shorter than the league average for player careers.

     What do I draw from all of this?  The results of Shanahan's draft choices were, overall, mediocre at best.  Oh, make no mistake, there were highs -- such as 2002, 2007 & 2008 where all of the picks made the team; also 2000 and 2006 which each contributed 5 starters to the team.  Yet there were also equally low lows -- such as 1999 where 9 out of 12 picks ended up on other teams, 2000 where 5 picks that became starters went to other teams, or 2003 where 6 out of the 10 picks failed to even make the team.  We must also not forget 2007 where we only had 4 picks in total. 

     Looking at these results, I am left with the impression that Shanahan truly believed the Broncos were only a player or two away from contention.  It also strikes me that he tended to be reactionary in his drafting -- such as in 2004 when the Broncos were torched in the wildcard game by Indianapolis' passing for 458 and 4 passing TDs, the first 3 picks in the 2005 draft were DBs.  So, as I mentioned above, at best, Shanahan's strategy can be considered hit and miss, and does not really reflect an intent to build up the team through the draft.  For that reason, I would have to agree with the assertions that a portion, IMHO a very large portion, of Denver's decline and struggles have to do with how Shanahan approached the draft.

How do you see Denver's drafts from 1999 to 2008?

Poll

Do you think Denver's drafts from 1999 to 2008 were:

0%

The best of the best of the best, Sir!

2 votes

3%

Pretty Good, but not Great

16 votes

16%

Better than some, Worse than Others

69 votes

23%

Fair to Middlin'

96 votes

30%

Worse than Most, Better than Some

126 votes

18%

Pretty Poor, but not Awful

77 votes

5%

Football's equivalent of the Titanic

23 votes

409 votes | Poll has closed