Visions of Sugar Plums - The Value of Brandon Marshall
by TJ Johnson on Mar 6, 2010 6:54 PM MST
196 comments
Christmas comes only once a year. And Pete Carroll isn't donning a santa costume.
While we all might have believed last week that Brandon Marshall was worth a 1st and a 3rd round pick, two things happened in the last two days that say otherwise:
1) The Denver Broncos themselves placed only a 1st round tender on Marshall
2) The Anquan Boldin trade
The Boldin trade, in particular, dealt what could have been a giant blow to the idea that the Broncos will be getting what we as fans hope is a fair value for the player known as The Beast.
After the jump, we'll look at the Boldin deal, it's consequences for Marshall, and what both Seattle and Denver might be considering as they discuss what Bradon Marshall is worth.
False Expectations
On October 14th, 2008, the Detroit Lions made their greatest play in the team's history. They completely fleeced theDallas Cowboys by trading wide receiver Roy Williams to them for a 1st, 3rd, and a 6th-round draft pick. The trade, it was speculated, was a result of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and his desperate attempt to win after Tony Romo broke his finger the same year. No matter what the reason, the trade will certainly go down as one of the stupidest trades in NFL history.
This trade also had the unfortunate consequence of setting a false market value for wide receivers. Given that Roy Williams was worth this much of a haul, certainly other wide receivers like Chad Ochocinco had this kind of value too. In fact, earlier in the same year, the Washington Redskins had offered the Cincinnati Bengals two first-round draft picks (the 2nd pick conditional on performance measures) for Ochocinco (then Chad Johnson). The Bengals refused.
These two deals, along with the general diva-like behavior of wide receivers, helped to create a perception that wide receivers had exceedingly high value.
Fast forward to today. Boy, do things change. We are about to enter an uncapped year in the NFL. The market has changed. The perception of value changes too. So two years ago, Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall may very well have been worth a lot more than they are today. But as fans, tipsy off of our desire to see our team do well, we often mistakenly believe what we are holding is more valuable than it really is. The market has a way of bringing us back to reality, however. The Anquan Boldin trade is that reality.
Reducing Anquan Boldin to a Number
Officially, the Arizona Cardinals sent Boldin (and a 5th-round draft pick) to the Ravens for a 3rd and a 4th-round draft pick. But to really get an idea of the real values of these picks, we must look at the actual placement of each of these picks within these rounds. If we use the standard draft value chart that most teams stick to, we could write this as an equation:
88th pick (150 points) + 121st pick (52 points) = 154th pick (30.8 points) + Anquan Boldin
If we consider Anquan Boldin the variable, we would then place Boldin's point value at 171.20 points. This is the equivalent of the 83rd pick in the NFL draft (3rd Round). Now we are getting a better idea of how the Cardinals saw Boldin's value--A mid 3rd-round draft pick. Or if we just want to objectify Mr. Boldin completely, 171.20 points.
You can begin to see why getting a lot of value for Marshall becomes more difficult in a market which values, one could argue, a Top-5 wideout at this level. We'll return to this in a moment.
But let's ask ourselves, can we apply this sort of analysis to Brandon Marshall and what's currently going on with the Seahawks?. Absolutely. Right now, owners and general managers are using these kinds of charts and the current deals that are being made to determine if their own deals are structured properly, so there's no reason we should let them have all the fun.
A Extremely Quick and Ridiculously Simplified Comparison
Here's where it gets tricky. Can we equate Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin? Do they add similar value? Let's take a stab at this using a simple valuation approach that one can apply to any productive asset, in this case two NFL players. It's called the RAG approach to asset valuation. It involves looking two investments from a perspective of Risk/Reward, Alternative Investments, and Growth.
Risk/Reward
In short, investments that have a high reward and low risk are worth more than assets that don't. And here, if you are the Seahawks, you have concerns. Marhall's off-the-field and injury risks are well documented. In fact, there are many in Seattle that are right now pointing this out to anyone that will listen. This from Greg Johns with the Seattle Post Intelligencer:
Remember when Tim Ruskell worried as much about character as talent when it came to football decisions? Those days apparently are in the past as the Seattle Seahawks' new leadership is reportedly pursuing the possibility of signing Brandon Marshall.
Adam Schefter of ESPN is reporting that the Denver Broncos receiver, one of the NFL's most-notorious bad boys in recent years, will visit the Seahawks on Saturday as the two sides talk about a possible contract offer.
Boldin, while presenting similar injury risks to Marshall, presents no such off-the-field risk. In fact, quite the contrary. Unlike Marshall, who famously tried to take a run at Denver's punting position when the Broncos wouldn't give him a new contract, Boldin remained steadfast, quiet, and by all accounts, a team leader and positive locker-room presence when the Cardinals wouldn't offer him a new contract.
So while Marshall might have a slightly higher upside, the risk he presents is more significant than Boldin. So, for me, it's a wash. But I'm feeling frisky and emotional as a Bronco fan, so let's say we add a slight premium for Marshall.
Alternative Investments
The alternative for both Denver and Seattle right now is clear: Dez Bryant. If Seattle doesn't deal for Marshall, Bryant makes sense for them. If Denver deals Marshall, Bryant is a distinct possibility, as Sayre Bedinger has pointed out many times.
Despite this draft being relatively deep with wideouts, this is a complex question, really, for the Seahawks: is Dez Bryant or a Seattle receiving corp made up of TJ Houshmandzadeh and company a reasonable alternative to Marshall? Before you answer this question, I implore you again to ignore cumulative stats (100 catches, 1,000 yards), which are really just a reflection of targeting, and to look at rate stats. In fact, I did just that in a previous article, in which Jabar Gaffney had a higher points value per pass than Marshall. Once you do this, I think you'll come to the conclusion that Marshall is not as valuable as the media hype that comes with catching 100 balls. Certainly not significantly higher than Anquan Boldin.
But even so, I enjoy adding premiums, so we'll give Marshall the advantage again.
Growth
Marshall (25) is younger than Boldin (29), so presumably, one would have the opportunity for 4 additional years of production out of Marshall. Moreover, given this age difference, we have likely seen Boldin peak at level of about 80 catches and 1,000 yards. Marshall, as scary as it sounds, has the potential to get even better--when his head is right. 100 catches and 1,200 yards is not out of the question for Marshall for the foreseeable future. However, let's not get carried away with cumulative stats. The fact of the matter is that Boldin catches more passes as a percentage of targeted passes (72%) to Marshall (67%). So if Boldin was targeted as many times as Marshall, he'd actually have more catches.
Because of Marshall's age, we'll give him the advantage, but I don't believe it's a huge advantage, as Ernesto Ruiz pointed out to me earlier in the day:
[Boldin's] production essentially mirrors Brandon's. As a player who has never relied on speed or agility (the tools that fade with age) Boldin is likely to hold up well as he enters the decline of his career. Marshall's physical style, on the other hand, may be cause for concern as he exists his prime. Speaking of which, baseball players tend to experience their primes in their mid-to-early 20's and I can't imagine that football would be much different, so perhaps it's time to consider the possibility that BM has reached his peak and is in fact on his way down.
#14 or Bust?
So now that we've given Marshall a higher value premium than Boldin, we are ready to apply this to what many Bronco fans say we must have if we are to let Marshall go--the 14th pick of the NFL draft. In sheer value, the 14th pick is worth 1100 points to NFL owners and general managers, or 929 points more than what the Cardinals let Boldin go for.
From a market value perspective, in which no one is beating down the door of the Broncos for Marshall, this is an exceedingly high premium for the Seahawks to pay. I was very generous in demonstrating Marshall's value over Boldin, but is Marshall really 6 times more valuable than Boldin? I highly doubt it. Even if he's three times as valuable (and that's debatable), this equates to only 513 points, or the 7th pick in the 2nd round.
Interestingly enough, Seattle now owns the 8th pick in the 2nd round? Coincidence? I think not.
Perhaps the saving grace in all of this that human beings are not rational, because if they were, the Seahawks would not offer the Broncos the 14th pick based on points and market value. In fact, as we know from the study of behavioral economics, people will often overvalue an asset--specifically one that they are attached too. That's what makes this recent comment from Bill Williamson so interesting:
There are going to be layers to this situation. First, Seattle has to feel comfortable with Marshall. That is the purpose of this visit. He has had several off-field issues, so Seattle has make sure it has a good feeling about Marshall. It has a good start because former Denver assistants Jeremy Bates, Jedd Fisch and Pat McPherson are on Seattle's staff. They know Marshall and they like him.
It appears as if Jeremy Bates and Jedd Fisch are really wanting to do this deal. And this is good for Denver. The more Bates lets his friendship and emotion for Marshall sway him, and the more than Marshall flashes his boyish charm, the more likely Seattle will be to pull the trigger, overvalue what they are getting, and dump the 14th pick (and a player!) to Denver in the morning. Let's all cross our fingers.
Still, I agree with this comment left on a message board under Johns' column by Bronco fan and MHR member xteve:
Even if they negotiate down to something like the #14 and Sims this is a dumb move for the Hawks. Having Marshall does them little good when they have a declining,injury prone QB and an O-line that can't protect him. And Marshall is one bong hit away from a mandatory 8-game suspension by the league so this move comes with enormous risk with very little chance of return on investment.
Before the final game of the season last year the team captains went to coach McDaniels and specifically asked that Marshall NOT be allowed to suit up for the last game because of his attitude. This was on an 8-8 club that still had a shot at playoff contention that week and they didn't want him on the field.
I can only imagine what Marshall would be like on a rebuilding Hawks club. Remarkably similar to TO in his 49er days. Great stats for him, didn't do jack to help that franchise.
While it's not clear that the team captains were signaling out Marshall specifically (they could have meant Scheffler), sometimes perception is reality when it comes to risk and assessing value.
McEvil Genius?
Is all of this part of McDaniels' master plan to keep Marshall? Is it possible that the Seahawks will low ball the Broncos and this will show Marshall the light? Is it possible, just possible, that we'll be seeing Marshall back in Denver next year? Fellow MHR-staffer Brian Shrout raised this possibility with me today. After all, McDaniels says he can work with Marshall, despite their recent differences.
Anything's possible. After all, Santa gave Pete Carroll another shot at an NFL head-coaching job.
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Love is in the eye of the beholder
I mean value is in the eye of the beholder.
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
LMAO
Great photo, dude. Haven’t read yet, but I’m intrigued by the above-the-fold intro.
"All we're trying to do is win the *********** game!" -- Josh MF McDaniels tearing into his offensive line after three false starts in the red zone. The tirade turned the tide of the game, and the Broncos dominated from that point on.
It's always Christmas at Dove Valley, MT!
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Okay, fully read and enjoyed immensely
and I’m coming down with B-Shrout. If Xanders and his staff were reasonably conscious about what to expect from the non-cap free agency period, it’s not hard to imagine that they could have seen this coming. Letting the situation play out, as John described the other day, is a masterful way to keep Brandon in the fold. I mean, if no one will pay him what he says he’s worth, what can he say?
Aside from some team overpaying for B Marsh immensely, this is (imho) really the best case scenario for Denver: keeping him at a reasonable dollar value and reaping the rewards of our investment of time and patience in him.
"All we're trying to do is win the *********** game!" -- Josh MF McDaniels tearing into his offensive line after three false starts in the red zone. The tirade turned the tide of the game, and the Broncos dominated from that point on.
by broncosmontana on Mar 6, 2010 8:41 PM MST up reply actions
It sucks but somebody had to spell out the reality of the situation
There was never any reason that anyone was going to give us a top 10 pick or a first and a third for the beast. It sucks and I want those picks but we’re not going to come out as great as we all dreamed
JA, let's hope Bates and his man crush sway the day with Pete Carroll. I think there's a chance
I’ve seen stranger. But given the Cromartie and Boldin deals, this is what we are facing.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Both players mentioned are not present Pro-bowlers!!!
Cromartie has had a major drop off in production over the last 2 years and wanted a contract that outwieghed what he was producing on the field. He could end up costing the Jets as much as a second round pick in 2011. Even though his tender was 3rd round!
Boldin is 30 this year and coming off another injury. Also he was a major headache in the 2008 season, he wanted a huge contract and Arizona refused he was offered for trade with no takers. Along with Antrel Rolle and Karlos Dansby in a CBA year the cards needed to dump th contracts which is exactly what they’ve done! Also Boldin was tendered at a 3rd round so I think Baltimore gave up about that by giving up a 3rd and 4th and receiving a 5th.
The Broncos do not have the same problem! Marshall is tendered at a 1st round pick so by hook or by crook Seattle or whomever else comes in for Marshall has to make that value up. They may have to be a bit creative to do it but the value has to be around a first round pick.
If they don’t match that then Marshall stays a Bronco!!! Easy
It's not like keeping him
would be a bad thing. Win-win as it stands right now. He didn’t throw a year-long pout like I feared he would last season and he won’t have any axes to grind with our management if the other GM’s don’t call him, so maybe he sucks it up in 2010.
Offense in general isn’t the priority for me and I’m more concerned with O-line depth/more talent than I am with wideout. on that side. If we’re sticking with Kyle he needs a rock-solid pocket (and yes, Neckbeard honks, I’m not ruling out making a QB move in free agency – but don’t mention McNabb to me).
We need more D, and then some more D. I saw flashes of greatness last year but injuries and the temptation to freelance out of scheme held them back – the perils of a new scheme and a number of youngsters. Nolan leaving was a setback and we need more quality players to keep us heading in the right direction.
A Bronco fan in San Diego - where history begins in 2004.
by BroncFanInChargerLand on Mar 7, 2010 12:55 PM MST up reply actions
at this point
I would rather keep marshall and risk his off field antics. Really. He’s proven he can get 100 receptions year after year. A 2nd round pick may statisticly equall marshall, but not in the real world. But it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.
by aldawg33 on Mar 6, 2010 7:13 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Wouldn't be so bad to have him. But are we going to be back here again with this antics?
Until he gets that big deal?
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
IF
If the Broncos don’t get what they perceive as a great offer, they’ll just keep him. No reason not to.
Step aside, my friend, I been doin' it for years.
Said sit on down, open ya eyes, say open up ya ears....
Too right pk
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
i wouild demand
A CURRY olb even if i means only getting a 2 round pick i wouild say no curry we will match any conect u draw up
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24
Intriguing.
You want Aaron Curry?
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Mar 6, 2010 8:29 PM MST up reply actions
yeah
2 reaons 1 he can play inside and out leader 2 make KC mad
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24
Probably wouldn't make a good 3-4 OLB.
Maybe even a poor one.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Mar 6, 2010 8:48 PM MST up reply actions
Meh, he could probably make a good ILB in a 3-4,
but I’m assuming the resources required to acquire him would be massive.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Mar 8, 2010 10:14 AM MST up reply actions
From what I saw and read, Curry had a mildly disappointing rookie season. Not a train wreck like Glenn Dorsey, but not very impressive either.
In my opinion.
He had trouble with assignment and scheme
He’s still a physical monster and we’re hoping he’ll mature a little in his sophomore year.
You can't (or wouldn't) match a contract
that says “This contract is guaranteed in its entirety if the player plays more than 5 games in any one year in the state of Colorado”. The poison pill is still effective.
Nice stuff as always, TJ
Like I’ve said before, if the Broncos draft Dez Bryant, I’ll make like Werner Herzog and eat my shoe. There is just no way that a statistically minded, risk-adverse management team like the Broncos’ throws a high pick at a wide receiver. Wide receivers bust out waaay too much, and like you pointed out, too many other things have to go right on the field for them to even be factors. Throw in Bryant’s head-case issues, and like I said, I’ll eat my shoe.
This is also probably a good time for me to take a victory lap on Marshall and the Ravens. I said the move doesn’t fit Ozzie Newsome’s M.O. And I was right. He’s a good general manager, and the good general manager surrendered a smaller sum for a better player who has a smaller chance of blowing up.
You’re right that people are irrational and ridiculous (quick, somebody tell the University of Chicago Economics Department!), and you’re right this is the Broncos’ best hope. It’s pretty clear that Jeremy Bates and Pete Carroll approve mightily of the 2008 Broncos offense and want to recreate it. This is amusing, since most stats had Marshall as a below average wideout that year. But it’s better to fleece a vulnerable human being than it is to chase some silly and abstracted concept of market value. Either the Broncos get good value for Marshall, or they keep him and have good leverage w/r/t telling him to STFU. I’m happy either way.
Chibronx, have you read the Pro Football Weekly article on Bryant?
Shhh, don’t tell Uncle Milton!
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
I was sort of on the Bryant bandwagon...
…or at least viewed him as an acceptable possibility until I read that. The dude sounds exactly like a slightly shorter, slightly faster BM— right down to the impulsive violent temper. I now have my doubts he’s even on the Broncos board.
I sure wish the Broncos could hold onto Marshall…that somehow it could work. But when I see he turned down $9.5 mil a year, and also consider the human side of it (the D. Wil stuff), I just can’t see it happening anymore. Unfortunately, I don’t see Bryant as a natural consolation prize either. Great player, but why would Denver trade one headache for the next?
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Mar 6, 2010 8:39 PM MST up reply actions
Dan Lebotard was saying the Marshall offer last year had very little money upfront and few guaranteed dollars, which is what set him off on his punting adventure.
I won’t pretend to understand guaranteed contract dollars vs total dollars, but apparently it was that issue and small signing bonus, not dollars per year.
In my opinion.
in a nutshell
the contract was said to be backloaded. Less signing bonus, less paid $ in the first 1-3 years, which is exactly the opposite of what Brandon wanted. He wanted big dollars (what WR doesn’t), but he wanted more the financial security that normally comes along with a big contract. Signing bonus, big payouts the first few years to reassure the player against career ending injury. Back then, the Broncos were protecting themselves (he had a court date and hip surgery), and BM wanted assurance no matter what happend with any suspensions (now/future) and injuries, he’d be setup…. I don’t see a full Bronco resigning happening, but I thought Shanny wouldn’t bench Plummer for the golden armed rookie (yes it stings still… I’m working on it. ;)
I'm glad we had this talk. -- TJ Johnson
by BroncoInExile on Mar 7, 2010 12:55 AM MST up reply actions
Therein lies the biggest rub...
I’m sympathetic to Marshall wanting the dream contract. But it seems like there has to be some sort of give on his part. When they made that offer, he was just a few weeks removed from missing a seriously long suspension. He’s still in danger of that. He’s embarrassed the organization a few times, and for a player of his ability, he managed to do the almost impossible— get on the wrong side of Mike Shanahan. Not giving him huge money up front isn’t personal— its just prudent business, and even if BM can’t come to understand that, I’m betting his agent does. Because of that, I don’t think this is so much about the money as it is that he just doesn’t want to be here.
However, if Mike Lombardi has it right today, he might not have a choice. I have a hard time coming up with the team that is going to give a huge front load and surrender the 1st round pick. Thats an epic gamble, and with Baltimore seemingly out of the picture, I don’t see anybody positioned to take that type of roll of the dice.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Mar 7, 2010 1:53 PM MST up reply actions
Which may be what this is all about
letting Marshall go through the humbling experience of realizing no-one’s going to give him exactly what he wants, and learning that he will have to compromise.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
I hope it works out that way.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Mar 7, 2010 3:04 PM MST up reply actions
Then,
Maybe Benn at WR in the draft? I still think we can keep BM, though. I think he knows he needs to mature, it’s just a matter of him actually doing it. If he’s back next season, it should be fun, and I mean that in a good way.
by NxtYrNvrArrives on Mar 6, 2010 11:45 PM MST up reply actions
Then,
Maybe Benn at WR in the draft? I still think we can keep BM, though. I think he knows he needs to mature, it’s just a matter of him actually doing it. If he’s back next season, it should be fun, and I mean that in a good way.
by NxtYrNvrArrives on Mar 6, 2010 11:45 PM MST up reply actions
don't know why
this posted above, ooops
by NxtYrNvrArrives on Mar 6, 2010 11:46 PM MST up reply actions
i hope a 2nd round pick is not the reality
means we traded Marshall and the #14 pick to Seattle for a 2nd round pick and Alphonso Smith (a 2nd round pick)
that just saddens me to read
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
"We laugh to stave off madness."
This has been an amazing 'debate'.
I’m starting to believe that it isn’t much different than when Galileo— or whoever it was— tried to convince the masses that the earth wasn’t flat. Those that want to believe that Brandon Marshall is viewed as glowlingly through the rest of the NFL as he is viewed within a large portion of Broncos Country are gonna by golly believe it— no matter what. And those that don’t believe it are going to be viewed as heretical, or just plain stupid. In the end, false expectations are being fostered, and once again everybody is going to get all angry with McD, and the Broncos in general, when this works its self out within the constraints of reality rather than wishful thinking. It seems to be an endless cycle that has enveloped the fan base as a whole.
The question I like to ask myself is, would I be happy with Broncos management if they traded the 11th overall pick for a guy exactly like Marshall? I’d personally be flat out annoyed and disheartened. Not only does his body of work fall well short of his on field image, but he vibes as a potential locker room wrecker and constitutes a gamble of epic proportions. All these latter factors matter just as much as 100 catch seasons— especially those with complimentary numbers that scream ‘possession’ receiver. We should dance in the streets if Denver trades him and is lucky enough to get a 2nd rounder. That won’t happen, though— even if Denver gets lucky, the masses will go apocalyptic.
Anyway, awesome as always T.J.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Mar 6, 2010 7:34 PM MST reply actions 10 recs
PO, dude, I can't add anything to this. Epic post. You should make this a fan shot
Speaks to human nature in general. This was totally interesting and compelling by itself. Great work!
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Thanks for this post...
This is, hands down, the best way that I’ve seen anyone explain this. You’re right. I would be absolutely ticked off if the Broncos traded our pick (or a #6 or #14) for a player with Brandon’s history.
Kudos to TJ, too. You were one of the first to bring the rest of back to earth. Good job!
One more thing that I should add
Is it possible that the Roy Williams/Cowboys/Lions trade will soon be viewed in the exact same light as the JC/Bears/Broncos trade? I can’t help but think that McX pulled off a pretty good “play” of their own….hindsight being 20/20.
Hershal Walker?
I think that was the Cowboy running back sent to Minn for 1 years worth of picks, or something close to that. And he was on the down side of his career at that time as memory serves.
Bronco Learning Curve
"I don’t want to lose any time... I don’t want the team thinking I’m a money-first guy. I’m here to play football and to win. Money is secondary." Robert Ayers
"I’m still around .... I might just do it for my own well-being. I don’t get no bonuses for it, I’m just doing it because this is what I do." Doom
"He can throw a fastball, he can throw a touch ball, he throws an awesome deep ball" Brandon Lloyd on K.O.
True, but at the time, it was viewed as one of the dumbest moves ever.
They basically threw out that season by bringing in a bunch of rookies. They got one win all season. Walker WAS the cowboys at the time. It would be the equivalent of the Rams trading Stephen Jackson, right now. They are bad, but they’d be even worse after trading Jackson.
What was interesting about that move was that it seemed stupid, at the time, but it was done with the end result in mind. The Cowboys maximized Hershal’s value and got all those picks and ended up building a team that dominated most of the 90’s.
So, using hindsight, we are able to see that it was a great move for the cowboys, but at the time, Cowboys fans didn’t think so because they couldn’t see into the future. They just thought that the Cowboys were trading away their only good player.
That would be the same situation with Brandon Marshall, in all likelihood. If we trade him this offseason, it’s going to be a meltdown of McJayGate proportions. Whether or not it turns around to benefit us down the road, I don’t know. But it might…
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
PS3 ID: broncomaniac6
by kentuckybronco on Mar 7, 2010 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
McD seems to take the "long view" of things
for example (of course) Cutler.
Is he following Hoodie’s “team over player” philosophy or marching to his own drummer ? I can’t say, but it looks as if he’s willing to take the heat from fans to do his own thing.
Whether that’s ultimately good or bad remains to be seen in the results, but I’m hoping this shows a plan is in place and the media’s knee-jerk portrayal of McD as a confused, clueless rookie turns out to be another bonehead mistake on their part. After all, he proved them all wrong on the win-loss record last year. I’m not 100% sold yet but it will take more than the Beast leaving to put me off McDaniels’ bandwagon.
A Bronco fan in San Diego - where history begins in 2004.
by BroncFanInChargerLand on Mar 7, 2010 1:21 PM MST up reply actions
There are those that speak TO others...And those that speak FOR others...
Rec’d your comment PO!
-Stick to the fight when you are hardest hit - it's when things seem worst that you must not quit!
by BroncoSense72 on Mar 7, 2010 6:43 AM MST up reply actions
Galileo
Capernicus is the one that proved the earth was not flat. Galileo proved that the earth was not the center of the universe which fits your post even better.
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
by 3nS on Mar 7, 2010 7:33 AM MST up reply actions
A great post PO and rec'd
It will be interesting to see how the Brandon Marshall situation shakes out. I would give a low 1st or early second round pick for Marshall because his talent warrants it.
I love coming over to MHR. I always leave with a higher football IQ than I came with. A terrific article T.J.
Awesome article great reality check
We don’t really want Marshall and all his baggage but we feel someone will overpay to get him? No way. Hopefully, Seattle will loball him into reality and we can procede. No first round picks on WR. Build from the OL and DL. Let Marshall return to Denver and reality and find a sleeper WR later in the draft. Don’t trade of a 2nd rounder. He costs us almost nothing next year and we still have the franchise option after that.
Ah, The Front Page...
This is where this article belongs! Excellent work, as usual TJ; I think we see roughly eye to eye…
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
We've already given them the #14 for the #37 last year for Phonzy.
Now even if BM is only really worth the #40 they’re gonna give us the #6 or we keep him. The way I see it they owe us. LOL
Any other teams?
Are there any other teams interested in Marshall?
Well, if I'm the Broncos
it’s either the #6 or we keep Brandon. I don’t see one single player in the draft who I would rather have than a proven three-year, 100 game two-time Pro-Bowler superstar, anyway.
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
I totally disagree. You back through past drafts and see the percent of players that even EVER start. The look at the percent that make the pro bowl. The draft is a much bigger gamble then BM even with his off field troubles.
by hhammer7man on Mar 7, 2010 7:14 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Cold hard economics vs. warm fuzzy emotions
Great article TJ! I thought Seatle only had a couple of starting caliber receivers, doesn’t that fact figure into the equation somehow? I hope that this is just a reality check for Marshall and he realizes that he has it good here in Denver. Maybe he should just “follow the rings”.
"The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy."
Martin Luther King Jr.
I'm always amazed....
Some posts like this one blow me away for all the knowlege you guys have. Such a detailed ,almost scientific description as above totally changes an opinion I once had about this entire deal. When I think of how obviously amatuer my feelings were about this possible deal it’s laughable. Every time I open this site I become more impressed with the football brains that I learn so much from. I used to think I knew something about football. This is probably a real eye-opener for Marshall. If we end up keeping him he “may” have an entirely different mind-set and attitude. Who knows. Thanks McManJoe Semper Fi
by McManJoe on Mar 6, 2010 7:54 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks, McManJoe!
May not be how things shake out, but perhaps it will help give some perspective.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
When do we say "enough?"
There is only so much time and energy that the Broncos should spend trying to elicit a realization of potential from Marshall. If he becomes what he could be, it’s worth it. History has shown, though, that a leopard won’t change his spots. Just paying players for what we HOPE they’ll become is insane, and that’s what the draft is for, anyway. I think Marshall is at the point where the hope for him to change has run out.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
I told you so!
I dont want to say I told you so but I have been saying from the start that we would not get all that for BM. I am however with the camp that if we dont get a 1st, (#6 is out of the question so our pick back) We keep him. He will leave when he becomes a REAL free agent in a couple years but until then, we have a good receiver with an attitude. Just like at least 15 other teams in the NFL
I like this post.
Marshall is far from the only unhappy player in the NFL. This article forgot that Boldin made several public stinks with the Cards over his contract and wanting to be traded the past few seasons. Boldin was a headache for Arizona and this article seems to have missed those moments in recent Cards history.
In my opinion.
A headache over a contract
Not a headache over being a potential catalyst for a fellow teammates murder, a serious arm injury or calling out an entire medical staff for a misdiagnosis of an injury. Lets not forget two seasons with missed games due to suspension or flat out sitting out.
Boldin played one month after breaking his damn face, and still put up numbers that rivaled Marshall… The guy deserved a bigger contract more so than any other WR in recent history, maybe you missed that point.
Lady, you want me to answer you if this old airplane is safe to fly? Just how in the world do you think it got to be this old?
— Anon
Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.
— George Bernard Shaw
by Choochoobonewagon on Mar 6, 2010 8:40 PM MST up reply actions
I don’t know where you got that I don’t like Boldin or think he is a wuss. I think he is bad ass, but he did make several public demands to be traded. He fussed and fussed about his contract – which he shouldn’t have signed in the 1st place so the problem was more his fault that the teams.
Like I said before, he gave the Cards and their ownership several headaches. He tried to make them look cheap so he could shot his way out of town.
In my opinion.
And then I get to your post farther down McG
Foot in my own mouth
Lady, you want me to answer you if this old airplane is safe to fly? Just how in the world do you think it got to be this old?
— Anon
Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.
— George Bernard Shaw
by Choochoobonewagon on Mar 6, 2010 8:43 PM MST up reply actions
No worries.
But I’m right when I say the Boldin / Cards relationship was NOT all sugar and ice cream. There were plenty of sour moments that were very public.
In my opinion.
It is a shame that it worked out the way it did for Boldin with AZ
It seems as though he wanted to stay with the team had they just paid him. Whereas with Marshall… well who really knows. Though it seems Boldin has landed in a pretty good situation with Baltimore and congratulations to him. I just felt that over any other receiver in recent memory, he has earned the money he deserves.
Lady, you want me to answer you if this old airplane is safe to fly? Just how in the world do you think it got to be this old?
— Anon
Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.
— George Bernard Shaw
by Choochoobonewagon on Mar 6, 2010 9:30 PM MST up reply actions
I think money is, BY FAR, the primary factor in both players’ dissatisfaction. No one likes being underpaid, especially rain makers like Marshall and Boldin. These two are special players and want to be paid as such.
In my opinion.
This quote from Mike Kliss is rather disconcerting.
The Broncos did offer Marshall a multiyear contract last summer worth approximately $9.5 million a season, according to two NFL sources.
Marshall rejected the proposal because the contract structure had relatively little money upfront, and also because the receiver preferred to play elsewhere.
What would make him happy, besides money and LOTS of it, only BMarsh knows, but 9.5 mill a year is not chump change. I get that its up front loaded, like his friend Roddy White’s contract that netted him 18 mill upon signing, but he would be right behind Larry Fitzgerald in terms of base salary, who is making 10 mill annually.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, and it might just bite us in the arse seeing him leave if we do not negotiate, at least, a first round pick or player compensation, but in my opinion, if the shoe doesn’t fit…
Lady, you want me to answer you if this old airplane is safe to fly? Just how in the world do you think it got to be this old?
— Anon
Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.
— George Bernard Shaw
by Choochoobonewagon on Mar 6, 2010 9:57 PM MST up reply actions
That its not front loaded rather.
Lady, you want me to answer you if this old airplane is safe to fly? Just how in the world do you think it got to be this old?
— Anon
Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.
— George Bernard Shaw
by Choochoobonewagon on Mar 6, 2010 9:58 PM MST up reply actions
Agree, he threatened to sit out games. He put himself over the team. This guy was a headache.
by hhammer7man on Mar 7, 2010 7:20 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
14 is better than 6
A #6 draft choice, especially this year, isn’t as sweet as the 14th. There’s still a ton of talent out there at much less money. I will choke on my tongue if the broncs draft Dez Bryant.. He brings all the baggage of marshall without any of the proven ability. Go ahead and “let” Seattle win one and take their 14th pick; then draft Dan Williams or Golden Tate with that pick, get a high character, high talent guy for much less money, and let the good times roll.
there is no Logic that supports that 14 is better then 6th
that is just insane. People in this camp that the 14 is better then the 6th are insane. The is no logical points you could make to prove this.
by gnarlybroncodude on Mar 6, 2010 10:04 PM MST up reply actions
I agree. We could always trade down from 6 to 13 by picking up another pick later in the draft or a player.
Makes no sense to say lower is better.
In my opinion.
In a salary capped season, while it would be better to have the 6th choice, the value per dollar would be less with the 6 then the 14. In terms allocation of resources the draft has been the biggest waste of money for every team in the top 10.
by hhammer7man on Mar 7, 2010 7:23 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
+1
that’s what I said, less eloquently, below. /thanks
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Isn't the logic that
in a deep draft, the better value is had outside the top 10? You get an equal caliber player for way less money. Value depends on need. If we could get the #1 or #2 pick and pick up Suh, I’d say that’s worth it. The rest of the first round players are valuable only as teams have a need to fill.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
The difference
Between #6 and #14 point value wise is about the same as #37 and 314
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
by 3nS on Mar 7, 2010 7:38 AM MST up reply actions
doesn't that depend on what you need?
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
That was suppose to be #14 not 314
... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear
by 3nS on Mar 7, 2010 8:17 AM MST up reply actions
B-Marsh is an enigma, but he's a Bronco today
I said this in the other post, but showing him as a clown now that he’s not a favorite is beneath us. It’s beneath you.
Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!
Elvislex, seriously?
I didn’t choose this for any other reason than because Marshall is about to cash in on a contract and it implies his value is going up. Wasn’t trying to imply that he is a clown in any way.
Are you sure that possibly you’re not reading into this a little?
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
I didn’t understand the Elvis post either.
But I will say this. I think you need to compare trading Marshall to other trades of 25 or younger NFL stars not the trade of a soon to be 30 year old WR that is past his prime. Funny thing is, you’ll rarely find NFL teams trading emerging stars unless you are talking Denver (Portis, Culter and maybe Marshall). This doesn’t happen often, but we are argueably two for two.
Marshall is entering his prime, like Jay Cutler was one year ago.
You are putting too much weight into the position variable not taking into account the age variable as much as you should.
As for the character variable, that is what Seattle is looking into at a nice downtown restaurant right about now.
In my opinion.
McG, your idea about the comparison is a good idea. If I can get the time, I'll put the ideas
to a post. This story might be done by tomorrow, though!!!
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure you're portraying him as a punk-clown.
You’re disrespecting our player by making him look stupid – to underline your point. Everybody will hate Marshall after he’s traded anyway; everyone will call it the right choice and line up to just say “yes”. So there’s no need to push it further. I think everybody understands that we’re supposed to stop being loyal to Brandon now and tow the company line, I just think we could do it without that picture.
I could be wrong, though. Maybe you thought it was a good picture, showing him in a good light. If so, I look forward to the day that you make Orton or McDaniels look so good in one of your posts.
Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!
Elvis
while I understand and appreciate your not liking the picture that accompanied this post, as a member, and now a staffer who has
(1)revised his take on Marshall,
(2)repeatedly endorsed the idea that we’re better with him than without him.
(3)of late has advanced the speculation that McDaniels does, in fact, want Marshall back,
(4)expressed the belief that the hard line of “a first or more for Marshall or you’re not getting him” is more about proving to Marshall that the best place for him is Denver,
I’m starting to find the whole “toeing the company line” spiel to be not only a bit old, but becoming more than a little offensive.
I am loyal to any and all players/coaches/front office personnel right up to the moment that they don the colors of another team. At that point they become inconsequential to me, since my fandom is reserved for those wearing the orange and blue. To the best of my knowledge, as of this point in time, Marshall is still a Bronco.
That being said, however, he has conducted himself over the past year or so in ways that could be construed as “clownish” (i.e. the incident with the ball boy during training camp).
TJ’s article was more to raise the question of whether or not the rest of the league places the same value on Marshall that we do. So far, it would appear not. How the rest of this will play out, we will have to wait and see.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
I wasn't talking to you B
I didn’t mean that to be directed at you. I saw your reply relating to “the company line” issue on the other post. Perhaps I should have replied there, in fact, I probably should have. I didn’t put you in that category. I don’t put you in that category. My question there related to credibility. If I never hear a person go against the grain, then instead of assuming he actually agrees with everything done, I conclude that he’s painting a rainbow and that he’ll do so regardless of situation.
The question was a real question, not meant to sound as snotty as it did. In that comment, I went out of my way to explain that I respect the opinion and evaluations of Mr. Nicols (sp?). I only meant to ask if there were examples of things he campaigned against. Basically saying that if you never say no, then saying yes means less. Again, not directed at you. Not even at TJ.
So as an aside, TJ: I read your comment too. I chose not to respond, thinking less was better. Instead, let me go on record as saying I hear you. I respect your thoughts there too. I’m glad to hear you’ve been critical of Moreno’s production v Buck’s. I’ve opined the same concern, allbeit without the great stats. I wasn’t trying to start a war.
Back to Mr. Shrout, I’m sorry if I offended you with the “company line” statements. Please understand, none of my comments were ever directed at you. That’s not because I’m afraid of confrontation, but because I never even had that idea of you.
In general, I’ve been critical of the tender decision and perhaps let my anger start a broader war. That wasn’t my intent, just passion taking over perhaps.
I maintain the idea the tender decision was bad. I maintain the idea that it was an express lane to get rid of Marshall. And I still believe it’s the wrong choice, that BM is worth more to our team than any single lotto ticket. All of that said, if I had a do-over, I would change the manor in which I’ve argued the point. I would have tried harder to not alienate opinions that I respect, yours is pretty high on my list.
Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!
No worries Elvis
As a poster whose opinions I’ve enjoyed reading, it just took me a bit by surprise, and seeing it multiple times, probably just hit a nerve, as the tender offer did with you.
My own belief on the tender — which I’ll hold right up until it should be announced that Marshall has been traded — is that the hard line offer was done with intentionality as an effort to prove to Marshall that the rest of the league does not value him as highly as Denver does, and, in essence, convince Marshall to stay. Should that happen, I don’t see the front office creating an unhappy Beast by signing him to the minimum guaranteed by the tender. I would think they would sign him to a multi-year deal that lies somewhere between the tender and what he thought he was worth.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
And I'll just agree to disagree
Maybe I should have done that earlier. I think Marshall’s good as gone, and for less than what his production means to us.
On another note, I forgot to mention the picture in my last reply – the reason for the original comment. That position is not one of those that I would change, or even change tune. Maybe I’m being a shinny-new-problem person here, but I absolutely stand firm that the picture lends disrespect to our player. Regardless of my feelings on Marshall, who I don’t really like… I would have said the same if it were KO, Dawk, McD, Moreno, etc… It’s disrespectful to our player. Placing a clownish picture at the top of the post wasn’t intended to make BM look good. More probable, it was intended to say it’s OK to dismiss him, to not like him, to disrespect him. And he’s still a Bronco in my eyes.
That said, I won’t talk again about it.
Good luck with the Redskins Mr. Mike! I'll be watching and cheering for a non-Bronco team for the first time in my life. Well, except when they play the Broncos!
I think Marshall is good as gone too,
but I have always enjoyed his play. Like Brian when he leaves and puts on the other jersey then he is a foe to me, but if he somehow stays then I will root as hard for him as I would the rest of the team. As for the right choice is releasing him or letting him go is up to the FO not us and I have to trust McDaniels’ choice as the team’s choice.
Good article The Dude.
As I’ve always maintained, Marshall is an elite for US, the Broncos. He has more value to us than any other NFL team. We should be the team willing to pay the most to have him.
My sincere hope is that we can offer him a market deal to keep him in Denver. The guy may have a demon here or there, but his real issue has always been money.
He didn’t go AWOL when D Will died or when he got a suspension for his legal run ins. Marshall went crazy when Denver low balled him with a LT offer with little money upfront and few guarantees. He was his absolute worst when money was at stake.
Hopefully we can structure something both sides can live with and Marshall will settle back into the fold like he did this past season. He was underpaid the last few years, but that was certainly a lot to do with his foolishness off the field. He has certainly found much less trouble with the law the past 20 months or so, seems to have made many strides in his dealings with the media and his understanding of how to behave like a pro. He has come a long way the last two years. Not all the way, but he has made many strides. Now is not the time to sell him for pennies on the dollar. Not after he proved he can star in two systems, regardless of the QB.
Marshall is a risk, no doubt about it, but he seems much less risky today that at any other point in his career. This offseason is the time to retain Marshall thru his prime.
In my opinion.
it would be an acceptable outcome for sure
it will be interesting to see if he really would be happy here if he got paid or if he would find something new to complain about (i.e. Coach, QB, Targets, Injuries)
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
"We laugh to stave off madness."
When has he ever been like that about anything other than money. He has felt underpaid for a long time. THAT is the root of his ills as a Bronco.
In my opinion.
i hope so for sure
some people are just happy being unhappy and find a way to do so, hope hes not that kind of guy. It just seems that groundwork is layed for that with his personal problems. He is playing football for a multimillion dollar living and cant just be happy, he has to hit his woman and talk sh*t to gang members
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
"We laugh to stave off madness."
He was very immature and certainly a coddled athlete. Far from the only one I might add. You hear stories of athletes getting into fights, nonsense, etc at clubs, with women, all the time. I’ve seen it with my own two eyes with DJ Williams and Jon Vilma. Or, just look at Big Ben this weekend.
We have never seen Marshall playing under a fair value contract. I think he would react very favorably to being paid properly for his immense worth to our team. I may be wrong, but he sure seems like a very happy guy on game day when he is playing well. He wears his happy heart on his sleeve as well as any Bronco outside of Dawkins.
I think he’ll continue to dominate once he is paid fairly for his on field excellence. Who knows, no one has ever seen it before. He has been vastly underpaid as a pro and he did not handle this well at all (off the field).
But to your point. Shanny traded Portis before Clinton had what could have been a similar meltdown.
In my opinion.
again, i hope so and the reward should outweigh the risk
so show him the money then
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
"We laugh to stave off madness."
We traded Portis for proven talent. We traded him for arguably the greatest corner to ever walk the earth. We didn’t trade for a prospect.
by hhammer7man on Mar 7, 2010 7:30 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
McGeorge, glad you visited one of my posts!
As always I respect your views.
He’s a young and emotional guy, that’s true. I would love for him to get his head right and be a Bronco. If he must go, I’m hoping Sayre is right and we can get 14 and a player. If not, I’m hoping he stays.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Other than the Alphonso Smith trade, I have not seen McDaniels make a roster move that struck me as desperate (risky) or one sided in our opponents favor.
Hopefully he learned his lesson with the Smith trade and will do what is in the best interest of the team. I don’t see letting Marshall go (100+ catches is like death and taxes) for a measly 2nd round pick. That makes us quite a bit worse, and in no way better. I’m sure McDaniels knows this so he’ll likely act accordingly.
Like he did last season, he has again impressed me with his approach to FA. Hope he keeps this up.
In my opinion.
I agree with you McG
I don’t see McDaniels/Xanders pulling the trigger on a Marshall trade unless they can receive whatever they deem as sufficient compensation.
I’ve mentioned in several threads to-date that I’m not convinced that McDaniels wants Marshall gone. I’ve also raised the question with a number of people about whether or not it is within the realm of possibility that Xanders (our resident contract specialist) was reasonably certain that no-one would pony up a 1st round choice and/or the kind of money that Marshall wanted, and so they tendered him for a 1st just to see if anyone would offer something outrageous, but more so out of the belief that nobody would, and they would be able to keep a humbled — from seeing that other teams weren’t valuing him as much as the Broncos — Marshall around.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
Regardless of where the contract was weighted
If he keeps his nose clean for 4? 5? (I’m too tired to check) years he gets 9.5 million a year. Given the facts of his behavior and the odds on a suspension during one of those years, that’s treating him like an elite player. All he had to do was to say yes and produce. The fact that he wasn’t willing to acknowledge that his behaviors have to be a factor in the contract and still could make that kind of cash tells me that this is the best approach.
I don’t know one way or the other if he’ll be a smiling nice guy or a clownish gent who gets suspended, to be honest. I’m not sure that giving him a lot of money is a sensible way to find out.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
"other teams interested"
tired of these namelessly speculated teams
lets give them some names, i’ll start
Tampa Bay – needs a wideout badly, with Antonio Byrant leaving they are left with none. They have the 3rd overall pick which they would not give up and we do not want for money reasons. They more interestingly have high second rounders, if we got one of those and a later round pick, that second would almost be as good as a first in this deep of a draft.
Tennessee – Titans could use a real playmaker in the passing game. Do not know how high the hopes are for Kenny Britt, but they cannot be too high for Washington or Gage. They hold the 16th pick in the draft. The problem is they are losing defensive players that may need to be addressed with that pick.
Indianapolis – Highly unlikely with the emergence of Collie and others to fill the numer two position, but if anyone could check Marshall’s behavior it would be Manning. And they for all intensive purposes pretty much would be giving us a second rounder considering they hold the 31st pick.
Cincinnati – Have said they would welcome T.O. into town. Obviously can handle the egos in that city. Letting Coles go and the unfortunate passing of Chris Henry has certainly left a void in their receiving core. Can Palmer throw enough passes in a game to keep #15 and #85 happy is another question. They hold the #21 pick which I believe would be a prime position in this draft to take one of the offensive lineman (Iupati or Pouncey) without reaching.
San Francisco – Josh Morgan cannot be your answer for a number two. Whether they stick with Alex Smith or bring in another QB, you have to give them someone to compliment Michael Crabtree. They hold the number 17 pick in the upcoming draft.
Green Bay – yea, the Pack. Gennings is the perfect deep threat, Driver is getting old, and Jones is not a legitimate replacement. Marshall is and plays a very similar game, he just plays it bigger and stronger. Green Bay hold a nicely placed pick at number 23. They also have no real glaring weakness that absolutely has to be addressed with that pick.
lets start rumors!
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
"We laugh to stave off madness."
by zclayro on Mar 6, 2010 8:12 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I love it:
lets start rumors!
And since MHR members are both knowledgeable and hold the Broncos near and dear, we could be both “informed sources” and “sources close to the team.” LOL
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
I like it.
Which member lives geographically closest to Dove Valley? I think that they should start the rumor. That way “sources close to the team” wouldn’t be a stretch of the truth, at all.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
PS3 ID: broncomaniac6
by kentuckybronco on Mar 7, 2010 12:33 PM MST up reply actions
targets vs. rates
Question about the argument about target vs. rates re: Marshall and Gaffney. Have you (or others) done similar stats for other teams 3rd/4th receivers vs. starters? Gaffney’s rate stats would seem to be likely to be inflated by 1) drawing more nickel/dime backs instead of top CBs; 2) the element of surprise when Gaffney is targeted; and 3) Marshall probably had a lot more targets when the Broncos were winning and not trying for larger plays to play catch up. I think these factors all suggest Marshall might be undervalued by the analysis you mention.
As for what to with Marshall, there is no reason to me to trade him for less than a 1st rounder plus something else signifcant. If that’s not where the market is at for him, then our best move is to roll the dice and keep him. The upside is too high to let him go for less. Hopefully seeing the (lack of) market for him will humble him a bit.
Gaffney was nothing more than a bit player for most of 2009. In fact he had five or six games with zero or one catch. He disappears for long stretches and scored a TD in all of one game all season (two vs Philly).
There are some at MHR that have a totally skewed view of Gaffney because they project his last two games (both losses) to a season of sustained excellence. But we all know that is misleading. He made something like 33% of his 2009 catches in two games.
I like Gaff and think he had a decent 2009, but there is a good reason he is on his third team already. He has proven out that he is not a legit #1 WR or even a consistent threat at that. Gaff is a decent role player.
In my opinion.
McG, I think Gaffney is not as talented as Marshall. However, if Gaffney was targeted
148 times, do you think his numbers would be significantly less than Marshall’s?
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Good Point
I like what Gaff has to offer. He has always been a solid WR in the league and does his job when the opportunity presents itself. I project a solid starting role and career numbers this year. Mr. Clutch
by atwaterlegend on Mar 6, 2010 9:10 PM MST up reply actions
Oh yes. Yes yes and one thousand times yes. Gaffney could never handle that many targets. He has proven he can’t over his eight year career. He was given every opportunity to be a key player in Houston, but it never happened. Then he was a role player in NE they felt they could replace without a hitch.
After eight years in the NFL, the guy is what he is. A 29 year old that is a 40 to 50 catch guy with three or four TD capability. Asking him to be a #1 WR that sees 148 passes is a highly dubious strategy. If Denver is crazy enough to go that route, you’ll see what I mean in 2010 because he won’t come close to putting up Marshall type numbers.
Marshall is an elite NFL player. Gaffney is much much less than that. But I sure did enjoy watching him destory a 4th rate CB in that Carr kid from KC. That was awesome.
In my opinion.
Well hopefully
We can get Eddie more involved and get running game going. We won’t have to rely so much on B Marsh’s production. Why so little action today? Its got me a bit worried to be quite honest. How many Centers are even available at this point? Hadnot had me excited.
by atwaterlegend on Mar 6, 2010 9:21 PM MST up reply actions
It is not good for Denver to rely on Marshall as much as we do, but Eddie really regressed in 2009. Many smart MHR writers say he can’t beat press coverage. They say teams found his weakness and that was why he didn’t do well in 2009. Don’t shoot the messenger, that is what others said. I have no idea why Royal sucked so bad in 2009.
And Yikes… because without Marshall around, Royal will face better CBs and if that is the case, Royal will get his butt kicked at the line. Marshall is going against guys like Revis and Flowers. Now we’re asking Royal to beat those guys… Doesn’t sound appealing for this Bronco fan.
In my opinion.
This is funny that Royal could not beat
press coverage in 2009 because I saw him beat press coverage multiple times his rookie year. I have no idea why he regressed by I know he is a smart and hard working guy. I believe he will get better.
by gnarlybroncodude on Mar 6, 2010 10:10 PM MST up reply actions
I think we should look into the comfort zone of where Orton likes to throw the ball on the field to where Eddie has run most of his routes. It seemed that when Orton did throw to Eddie their timing was off. Maybe Orton doesn’t like the small target for fear of INT’s, I just don’t know. But it would be interesting to see some stats.
by hhammer7man on Mar 7, 2010 7:44 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
100% x 1,000!!!!
I can’t give you any stats, but I know my eyes groaned a million times at the lack of chemistry between Orton and Royal. Orton could be in one of his zones— and it would inevitably get broken by a low and outside knuckleball to a frustrated Eddie Royal.
And thanks for the insight— I didn’t ever consider the target-size angle, but it sure seemed like Orton had the football version of the yips with Royal at times.
"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."-- Oscar Wilde
by PredominantlyOrange on Mar 7, 2010 2:04 PM MST up reply actions
You've hit on one of the problems, PO
The reason that I saw Royal having some of the issues was that he was catching too many balls either too close to or onto his body. He has to get back to catching with his hands.
By the way, I’m not taking any responsibility away from Orton – I agree that they just didn’t mesh and his throwing was part of that.
Don't say rebuild - say reload...
LOL, McG! Alright, you've convinced me!
I
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
bushwah,
I think some of what you say is true, certainly. There were games, however, that Marshall disappeared as well and had some beastly games against lesser opponents.
I haven’t done the numbers for other teams, yet. I am working on this during the offseason, but I should have some of these numbers in the future.
Your point 3 is very interesting to me. I need to consider this further.
Good points, all. Good comments.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Come on The Dude. Be honest.
In 2009, Gaff had two games with zero grabs, three games with 1 catch, one game with two catches and six more games with three catches. So in 12 of 16 games, he only made three or fewer catches. Come on man, that is not what #1 WRs do, esp in a short, controlled passing game like Denver ran in 2009. Even #2 WRs do much better than that in an O like we ran. Gaff is not consistent enough to be a legit weapon. He is a role player. A good role player. Denver needs guys like him, but not to focus on a guy like him.
Marshall excels in this short, controlled passing game. He is the perfect WR for what we are trying to do in Denver and it is why Orton locked onto him so often.
In my opinion.
McG
I think he is good for this offense!
I agree with your points!
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Gaff is just fine in Denver. But it is Marshall that really fits this offense as an amazing possession WR. Isn’t that exactly what McDaniels is trying to implement in Denver. A possession type O where we hold the ball for a while as we move down the field.
Isn’t that exactly what Marshall does best?
In my opinion.
McGeorge, yes, agreed.
My original post on the topic, the very same in which I give the rate staff for EPV for Gaffney, I say that Denver should try and keep him at exactly your point—Market Value.
But I’m not in the camp that considers him Top-5 in the league, and I think you and I are congruent with respect to the possession receiver status. I would love for us to have someone who can get deep actually.
By the way, I loved your point about the 4th-string CB.
I
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
If we sign Edwards
Do we have to give up a 3rd rounder??
no
ufa
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
"We laugh to stave off madness."
Profootball talk
Some comment said we had to give the Ravens a pick Thanks for clearing things up
Nice post TJ
They way you put it, I can see where the 6th pick would be a bit high, however there is nothing wrong with having the 14th pick because we have the 11th too. Therefore with all the talent out there we should be able to fill some holes with those slots. I also would like to get a player along with the trade too. If a trade happens, hopefully both teams will get exactly what they want.
The one thing that has bothered me with Marshall is kind of what you explained in your “growth” segment. I have never really put a lot of weight on the fact that he has 100+ receptions in each of the last three years. The one thing that bothered me is that with those 327 rec. from ‘07-’09 he only has 25 TDs. Targeted is nice and all but getting in the endzone is what counts. Now I really hope he stays a Bronco because the skills he has. If he does stay I would like to see McDaniels work him into getting in the endzone more.
Floyd Little: HOF Class of 2010.
2009 NBA Champions L.A Lakers
2009 NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant
Oops, I got it wrong. Meant to be 307 receptions.
Floyd Little: HOF Class of 2010.
2009 NBA Champions L.A Lakers
2009 NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant
Couldn't have said it better myself, weazel.
I know I am in the minority, but if you are targeted 148 times, you are going to have great stats. I know he’s a beast, yes, and I hope he stays or we get 14, but I’m not out there saying the dude is top-5 in the game because he has monster cum stats, when the rate stats say otherwise.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Go back and review his catch against the 0Cowboys that he took to the house. He is a possession receiving with skills to take it to the house. Most if not all possession recivers have no ability to do what he did.
by hhammer7man on Mar 7, 2010 7:49 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think Denver's getting a 1st round pick out of Seattle.
They have little to no leverage. Whatever the reasons, Marshall’s relationship with the Broncos is very poor. It seems highly unlikely that Josh McDaniels is going to have him around much longer, despite him voicing opinions to the contrary. This was made evident by only giving Marshall a 1st round tender, which is basically a way of telling the NFL they’re shopping him.
I liked your post, but I severely disagree with the premise that Marshall is only slightly more valuable than Boldin.
Boldin, while presenting similar injury risks to Marshall, presents no such off-the-field risk.
What? Marshall’s injury history isn’t anywhere near as perturbing as Boldin’s, who seems to be consistently appearing on the injury report every few weeks or so.
[Boldin’s] production essentially mirrors Brandon’s. As a player who has never relied on speed or agility (the tools that fade with age) Boldin is likely to hold up well as he enters the decline of his career. Marshall’s physical style, on the other hand, may be cause for concern as he exists his prime.
This is implying that Boldin somehow doesn’t have a physical style of play, despite the fact that it’s well known Boldin runs hard like an RB once he gets the ball in hands and goes looking for contact. Add the fact that Boldin is several years older, already checkered with an injury history, and probably going to decline very soon (while Marshall might just be ready to hit his prime years), and it’s fairly obvious Brandon Marshall is far more valuable than Anquan Boldin.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
FF, nice to see you over at MHR.
I think the injury point is very debatable. Marshall was forced to play through hamstring injuries by Shanny, so it’s skewed a tad. Marshall hasn’t exactly been a brute force with respect to the injury report each week. Overall, however, I’d cede the point that Boldin has more risk with respect to injury due to the age. So I added the premium.
Same with the 2nd point. Added the premium there as well. I do think, however, think Marshall’s style is more prone to taking hits. Except when he gets hit (Eagles game, Ravens game) he tends to shut it down a bit.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
If we do not get a 1st round pick
then Seattle does not get Marshall. It is that simple. Also Marshall is a much better WR then Boldin ever was. People really cannot compare the two because Marshall is superior by far in every way.
by gnarlybroncodude on Mar 6, 2010 10:15 PM MST up reply actions
The Broncos FO tendered Marshall with a 1st
knowing that the team with the 32nd pick could sign him away with a poison pill contract. The maximum they reasonably expected was the 32nd pick (anything more than that would be gravy). They therefore value him at a level equal to the 32nd pick or lower. That’s where I imagine the negotiations will begin. They will probably go down from there.
Poison Pill contracts no longer exist now that there is
no salary cap. Go back to the hawks blog with this crap. We are a little more knowledgeable over here at MHR.
by gnarlybroncodude on Mar 6, 2010 10:58 PM MST up reply actions
I'm not sure you understand how the poison pill works
Here’s a link to Wikipedia: Poison Pill.
The contract given to Burleson had two vengeful poison pill clauses in response to the contract offered to Hutchinson. Firstly, it stipulated that if Burleson were to play five or more games in the state of Minnesota during any single season over the life of the contract, the entire $49 million would become guaranteed. Secondly, if Burleson were to earn more per year on average than all of his team’s running backs combined, the $49 million would be guaranteed.There’s no reason why this exact same method couldn’t be repeated by another team. The “poison” part of the poison pill is that the entire contract is guaranteed (which may or may not have salary cap implications). The poison pill is no less effective in the (one-year) absence of a salary cap.
The poison pill is overrated, after the Vikes and Hawks used it. The owners pretty much tried to get it wiped out, when the players union refused to get rid of it because of the slight leverage it gives a RFA; they just decided to make it an unofficial rule between owners.
And because teams submit the offers not players bye bye poison pill.
But I do agree with your assessment on where overall negotiations will start.
The poison pill only works if both the player and the team agree
Hutch signed a contract with a poison pill because he was pissed at the Hawks’ FO and wanted to get out of Dodge. There’s no reason to think a similar contract couldn’t be drawn up today with similar results (except that the Seahawks don’t want to give up the #6).
I know how it works and I know the Hawks wont deal their first pick; and I dont appreciate you ignoring my post.
I'm sorry if I ignored your first post
I don’t mean to be rude or disrespectful, but sometimes I can be a little dense.
If you’re referring to the fact that the poison pill hasn’t been used recently, I don’t think you assume that it can’t or won’t be used. The transition tag remains ineffective today because the poison pill can still be used. No team can use it without a player’s consent (it requires that the player sign the offer sheet, after all), but it is still effective.
Well the transition tag is just dumb, paying top 10 money or 120 percent. And then stand to get nothing in return. Thats why thats not used, because its absolutely stupid when you could use a franchise tag.
I dont believe a poison pill will ever be used again, and I think the owners agreed on that. Call me paranoid but it makes good sense to me.
Here
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ross_tucker/03/03/tender/index.html
Ross Tucker says that the poison pill is still legal and fair. He suggests that it isn’t used because either (a) there’s a gentleman’s agreement among the owners or (b) teams don’t want to pay the RFA tender and would prefer to negotiate down.
Yeah didnt say it wasnt legit or fair. I said I believe the owners have decided not to use it. It can take anyway a clubs leverage, and thats not good for any owner.
So a “gentlemans” agreement sound exactly right. Its like a one or one bar fight, a kick to the balls is legal and fair, but the unwritten rule is its punk.
I'm a guest here
Its not my place to get indignant about how other fans express their fandom in their own fan community.
Besides, if I’m going to disagree with someone, I try not to be disagreeable. Some people still won’t want to hear a conflicting opinion, but at least I’ll know that I made the effort.
Like i said earlier
Boldin was tendered at 3rd round. So the final deal is about right!
I don't think the Boldin deal can be taken as hard/fast precedent
I don’t think the Boldin deal necessarily sets the market value for wide receiver. Boldin is older and more injury prone than Marshall. He’s missed playoff games the past two seasons (plus additional games). He’s a stud all right but that only means that he’s even more injury prone. He plays with reckless abandon. A couple of years ago he busted his face to smithereens against the Jets. As a football fan, I love to see that. But that style is detrimental to his health. Marshall plays physical too but I think he’s a little more lithe—he seems to avoid collisions better than Boldin. Additionally, the Cardinals have been trying to unload Boldin for a couple years now. Their Super Bowl year they had 3 receivers with 1,0000 yards (Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston). Breaston is legitimate as is up-and-coming Doucet. They don’t need Boldin. Plus, Boldin has been stewing for two years for a trade and has felt slighted by Cardinal’s management. Thus, the Cardinals wanted to deal him and after getting no offers last year, they jumped (prematurely in my opinion) on the first decent offer (and it was a low-ball offer). The situation is different with Brandon Marshall. He is worth more than Boldin and Boldin was a steal for the Ravens. So, to use the Boldin deal as a means of evaluating Marshall’s value is a stretch. It is useful but not definitive. I think the Broncos know this. And I hope the Seahawks (or any other team interested) know this because I’d like to get value for Marshall and move on from him. We’re not taking anything less than 1st round value for him though. He’s in the top five of WRs, if not top 3. So if no team makes him an offer, fine. We’ll keep him and his attitude and his talent. I"m okay with that, even if I don’t love it. Do not forget about the Dallas game, the Giants game, and the Indy game last year. Marshall was spectacular!
hey, benny, this is a well put together post, and I enjoyed reading all of it, quite frankly
I hope it is useful. The two situations are not perfectly aligned, but I think that one can apply the logic to them because they involve draft picks. These charts and values are being used.
I’m beginning to sway on my thoughts about his style of running after thinking back to the Ravens and Eagles game. Your point about Boldin in the Jets game I had forgotten. Alright, man, you’ve convinced me. Even with the premium, however, I’m not thinking they are going to give up #14. But believe me, I hope they do.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
I think fewer and fewer of the NFL GMs are using the draft value chart than you think. The value of draft picks has really changed in the last five years as Top 7 picks are so vastly overpaid. In fact, most 1st round picks are overpaid vs their value in the 1st few years.
That chart made more sense in the Jimmy Johnson days than it does now. Guys like Mayock say this all the time.
In my opinion.
McG, don't listen to their words....watch what they do...
then tell me if they use the draft charts or not….
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Thanks for the post TJ
It’s nice to get several different viewpoints on an issue. Before your post, I’ve been hearing a lot about the value of BM—mostly that it is at least a first-rounder. Your post has made me re-evaluate these evaluations. We do have to look at BM’s value in the context of the Boldin deal. The thing is I don’t think that was a very fair deal for the Cardinals; I don’t really think they got equal value. I’m not saying BM is Larry Fitzgerald, but wasn’t Fitz a no. 3 first rounder? And wouldn’t you say that a receiver like Fitz was worth that pick and then some? (Now it helps to have a QB like Warner. If BM had had Warner, I daresay he could have put up stats and made plays like Fitz. Though BM has the character issues.) Fitzgerald and Warner were why the Cardinals got to the SuperBowl in ‘09. Even if the market for WR this offseason is influenced by the Boldin deal (and it probably is), I think GMs know what a top flight WR can give you and many probably would willingly use a high first round pick on one. Plus, a proven one in the NFL is worth two top-flight WR prospects coming out of college (if you get my drift). Now, with the Boldin deal out there, GM’s will use that as a negotiating point to try to get BM for less. I think the Broncos would be foolish to accept less though. And personally, I hope we do get the #14 instead of #6 for monetary reasons.
TJ...stud post.
I agree with tons of what you are saying but it wouldn’t be interesting to post “I agree” twenty times. Instead, I will tell you where I disagree:
1. Was the Roy Williams trade stupid because hindsight is 20/20 or was it actually stupid at the time? Roy Williams, in the opinion of many pundits at the time, was a legit #1 WR. The Cowboys did not have Miles Austin. They had pain in the arse T.O. A seemingly legit #1 WR, Miles Austin, has helped push the Cowboys over the hump and made them a contender. Once again, hindsight is 20/20. There were red flags on Roy Williams, but most of them were attributed to the fact that he played on a horrible team.
2. Dez Bryant does not automatically become the #1 alternative if we deal Marshall. He has to pass the sniff test and I don’t think he can. I have severe doubts about this guy and just because he is popular doesn’t mean he is right. He has the makings of another diva WR, does not appear to have the requisite intelligence McX is looking for, and has some off the field problem potential that must be looked into. With that said, he is a competitive animal, which I love, but so is Brandon Marshall.
3. Boldin AND Marshall are both physical WR’s. Boldin is a smash mouth WR if there ever was one and has been hurt as a result. You can be a physical WR and still have longevity. Look at Terrell Owens. So, I disagree that Boldin will necessarily have more longevity.
4. As John Bena said, this scenario is a win/win situation. Either we end up with fair compensation or we end up keeping our pro-bowl pain in the ass WR. The failure of a deal within 48 hours of the start of free agency has not changed this and has not taken my eye off the ball.
by swg777 on Mar 6, 2010 9:30 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
SWG, this is why MHR kicks arse,
The posts to a post are as good or better than the original:
1) Yeah, you are right, I’m apply hindsight here, it’s true. I still think it helped set the stage for overvaluing WRs, though. But excellent points
2) Good point. I probably could have presented some other WRs, because this draft does have some depth.
3) I think some other posters have convinced me of point 3 as well. I probably generalized a bit there.
4) How do we define win with respect to the compensation, SWG? That would be my question back to you.
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
Off the subject....
Should I be worried that Dove Valley was so quiet today? WIth this thin free agency group and our many needs, where are these guys going to come from? Centers don’t grow on trees…
Is Hadnot a no go?
Is Pashos even going to stop by? Im just wondering where we are going to fill our needs.
by atwaterlegend on Mar 6, 2010 10:10 PM MST up reply actions
idk where will get the talent on the line
Hopefully we are active tomorrow, but on the + side i haven’t heard about any signings today so it wasn’t just a slow day for the Broncos
Can Seattle wait until after the 2010 draft to sign Marshall to a contract and would that mean we get their 2011 1st round pick? If so, that is what Seattle should do.
In my opinion.
No Restricted Free agents have until
4/15 to sign an offer sheet. If they are not signed by then they have to stay with their original team
by gnarlybroncodude on Mar 6, 2010 10:19 PM MST up reply actions
Very interesting that
we haven’t contacted any WR for depth (especially if/when Marshall is traded). Very interesting indeed.
might as well keep him
As a resident zonie, I have watched every game Mr. Boldin has played. When you have Larry Fitzgerald in front of you, your stats can lie. If he had been traded straight up for Marshall I would have been happy, and I wouldn’t be suprised if he has a breakout season. Sorry fans, but three times his value seems high for Marshall. Unfortunately this season the owners hold all the cards. Can anyone tell me why the players union let this happen?
"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
Philip K. Dick
I've been saying for months
for anyone that’s read my comments that while I personally value Marshall at at least a first and a third, we’ll never get it. The reason I assumed such is because of the Boldin situation. He’s been asking for a trade since the offseason of 2007-2008 which was the offseason before they went to the Superbowl. The asking price was a first rounder which nobody offered. Keep in mind this is a 26-27 year old Boldin we’re talking about. In his prime and arguably in the top 5 at his position. The price dropped to a second rounder last year…no takers. My whole premise was that this was an indication on what the true market was for WR’s. I say true market because you can’t base expectations on extremes. Sometimes there are a few idiots who throw around 1sts and 3rds for guys (Dallas). Boldin was a similar player. Maybe even better at the time. We will be very lucky to obtain a 1st rounder. If that’s the case then you have to look at value. Like McG has repeatedly said Marshall’s greatest value to the Broncos is not realized through trading him but keeping him at a fair market price.
However for this to be done there have to be 2 willing parties. That is what we don’t know for sure. Does Marshall just want money or does he want money and a new home. Do we want Marshall or do we want him for pennies. These are questions that have not been answered yet.
Just get better.
I really don’t care one way or another what happens with Marshall. If he stays in Denver or if we trade him for spare parts, all I care about is what is best for the team as a whole. I think personally he is better than any of the prospective WR’s in this years draft based on the fact alone that we know what he is capable of and still has more potential to reach. So any team that may take a WR in this years draft is likely in the race for Marshall. I can see the Jets making a move on him in the coming days.
Seattle and any other team would be lucky to have Marshall and if he remains a Bronco than we would be lucky as well. I think if we lose him for something less than a 1st round pick, we will still be okay. The most talented teams don’t always win championships, but the most talented team players always do. We’re not there yet but I do believe we’re heading in the right direction.
"If we cannot find a way, we will make a new one." -Hannibal
by AvalancheRescueDog on Mar 6, 2010 10:34 PM MST reply actions
Great Post
One of the best posts Ive ever seen on SBNation. One thing I would like to refute is the pass targeted versus caught rate, you seem to like this stat McG. Personally I feel this stat is worthless, because you cant really compare the percentage of caught ball/versus targeted with Bmash and Boldin.
One is a number one receiver, and a leaper; and the other was a number two and much more of a “possession” type guy. You would expect a primary leaper to have a lot more balls thrown over his head on purpose; and even if the ball is uncatchable that counts as a targeted ball. I mean the targeted has to get pinned on someone if the QB is in the pocket right.
I wish we had you over at BFTB to tell the dozen or so over their we werent going to receive a first for Cro.
And if you want an outsiders opinion, I think he’s worth a first to the Broncos. I just dont know if he’s worth that much to another club with this good draft coming up.
I TOLD YOU SO
I have been saying for months that anyone who things that any team will give the Broncos a 1st pick and 3rd pick for BM is crazy. And if the Broncos trade BM for anything less than a 1st round in the first 10 spots this year they will be making the biggest mistake in recent years. YOU DO NOT TRADE PROVEN PLAYERS FOR POTENTIAL.
Wow someone needs to get over themselves
you still have no idea how it is going to turn out
by gnarlybroncodude on Mar 6, 2010 11:00 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Doing the math....
I can’t make sense of how a team that give us a 1st and third is “crazy” but we’re making a huge mistake not getting a high 1st for him ? Unless you’re assuming the 3rd rounder is another Lawrence Taylor, this doesn’t compute. If he’s proven, why are they crazy ? If we’re getting overpaid, why is it a “mistake” ?
A Bronco fan in San Diego - where history begins in 2004.
by BroncFanInChargerLand on Mar 7, 2010 1:09 PM MST up reply actions
My thoughts
Why are certain circles convinced that BM MUST be traded? I think Denver would rather pay the 1st round tender on him, or any other lowball offer, then let him walk for draft picks/players that don’t have a huge impact.
I don’t have the numbers, but it is my guess that if Denver did trade BM for a 2nd and 4th round draft picks, they would end up paying more money then the 1st round tender for BM, and they are guaranteed a proven player.
If he is still in Denver, and wants to pout about it, he only hurts himself and further shrinks his market, because it doesn’t make sense for the Bronco’s as an organization to not get “top dollar” for him.
I still like the idea of showing BM that he isn’t worth what he thinks he is worth, and maybe opening his eyes that he is wanted and valuable in Denver, but not above the team.
As for the article in regards to the previously offered contract, I think that whole situation partially stemmed from the fact that BM thought he could force his way out of town. The Bronco’s are not going to do something stupid in regards to a trade with him.
Just some random jumbled thoughts
"No matter how far a Jackass travels it will never come back a horse"
by SpaceCowboyInLG on Mar 6, 2010 11:11 PM MST reply actions
Why all the flip-flopping?
When the front office slapped the 1st round tender on Marshall, many articles stated he was priced to sale. Yes Boldin got traded for not a whole lot of compensation. But I don’t know a single football fan that wasn’t surprised at his deal. Seeing players traded for low values is as common as seeing players traded at ridiculous values.
What it boils down to, with Marshalls’ past production, if the 06’ draft was done in hindsight, he would be a 1st rounder not a 4th. And spending a 1st now for a proven talent is less risky than drafting a player who hasn’t played on the NFL level. He is peaking in his career, isn’t a player who gets injured a lot, and has shown improvement in how he handles himself.
With Seattle, I don’t see the 6th pick out of reach. First off, you have to spend a lot of money on a top 10 pick. The money Marshall wants is a bit more, but its a small premium to get an NFL proven talent. And Seattle desperately needs some help in the WR dept. And knowing 1st round WRs tendencies to bust, Marshall looks much more attractive.
RFA dealings always take longer than UFA. We can’t get impatient from the lack of dealing him and constantly flip flop our positions. It will happen, he was planning meetings the first day of FA. I enjoyed the Beast being on our team, he caught many balls for us and for the most part gave it his all, any receiver who specializes in YAC has to WANT IT. But its been fairly obvious that both McD and Marshall have been saying all the right things to boost his value, as it benefits them both. I may end up eating my words, and honestly I hope I do. Id rather see Marshall in a Denver uniform in ’10 than an extra 1st rounder to risk money on.
I am fine keeping Marshall. A tall "beast-like" receiver is a tough matchup for DBs.
I just don’t want to see him gone for peanuts. Were he to go to Seattle for the 6th pick or for #14 plus a player – that almost is a wash as trading down from #6 should yield 2 pretty high picks: a 1st rounder and probably a 2nd or high 3rd, if not more. Getting #14 plus an experienced OG that fits our need pretty well, that is pretty good. But I see it as a wash.
Seattle – especially if they draft a QB to play right away – would benefit from BM as he is a big target and a possession receiver. Young QBs need guys to keep drives going helping them in performance and confidence.
Since we have plugged a hole in both our secondary and DL – and hopefully another in the DL with Edwards – we can focus on the makeup and depth of the OL and improving the running game. If BM is traded, I look for us to target Jacoby Ford and possibly another big WR in rd 2, 3 or later. Not Bryant.
I agree with John – it is a win/win whichever way this turns out. But he does need to be paid. He was underpaid – as McGeorge said – the last 2 years.
Excellent post. Lots of good opinions expressed. Thanks for your time and energy, TJ.
Rec’d!
Finally!!! Thank you TJ
Finally we get a bit of a reality check in here. It was well needed.
You probably get this a lot. This isn't the real Caesar's Palace is it?....Did Caesar live here?
You know where I wanna go? I'll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Aspen
I'm torn between two bridges...
One bridge of me wants to burn BMarsh down and scater the ashes in Puget Sound, but another part of me wants Brandon to be in Denver helping the team win superbowls. I really don’t don’t care if Marshall goes somewhere else and maybe it would be better all around for those involved. Take a 4th round pick for him and say good ridence butt hole.
Lets say the Broncos can't trade BMarsh and no one signs him to an offer sheet.
I’m going hypothetical here. No one bites. The fact that BMarsh wants a big new deal and the Broncos want a large amount of compensation scares most teams off. What type of deal do you guys think would be fair for both sides? Would he even sign it?
Yes, he will sign.
I really think they still want him and will pay him. It’s just not quite as much as he feels he would have gotten if there was still a CBA. He’s right. Many others are in the same boat. Without having to give up picks, teams would have been fighting over him. One screw up away from suspension or not. Every team would want to have a safety net though. So do we. He has earned a pay raise, but he by no means had earned a contract without stipulations for staying out of trouble and with incentives. If he does not go for this then he can play under the tender offer and prove for one more year he has matured. Then by rights we could still franchise him next year(if there’s football) which give him the money he has been coveting, but not the long term security. My hope is a 5 year deal with about 15 mil guaranteed. then 10 mil. obtainable by attendence, attitude and production.
I was thinking
that we’ll end up signing him. I’d say 3yrs/24 mil with a large percentage of that guaranteed would entice him to sign. However, that is assuming that he realizes that his value isn’t as high as he thinks.
by broncodude793 on Mar 7, 2010 9:53 AM MST up reply actions
Forgot
to add that the incentives Digger was talking about will probably be essential for any contract BMarsh signs with any team.
by broncodude793 on Mar 7, 2010 9:54 AM MST up reply actions
I'd be happy with 3 yr deal.
Pretty sure Bowlen promised him something. Whether it was for if he testified or just played out the other contract, I don’t know. I think this is just a head game McD is playing with Seattle. Kinda like the he masterfully played on Cutler last year.
:)
I would really
Like this “mind game” if it results in us getting the 6th, then flipping it into the late teens or early twenties plus additional picks.
by broncodude793 on Mar 7, 2010 11:55 AM MST up reply actions
Excellent analysis TJ
I’m hoping for a little irrationality myself (i.e., #14), although the second rounder would be sweet too. I’ve been saying all along that getting Brandon off the team would be addition by subtraction and whatever pick we get will be gravy. I’m just hoping it’s the real good gravy— like that real turkey gravy that you mix on Thanksgiving.
Valuation and Such
1. Clearly BM was tendered at the highest “shopping” value in order to kickstart the market to see what he was worth. Saying the Broncos devalue him, or are even looking to trade him necessarily is jumping the gun. What we do know is they want to test the market. They could just be testing the waters to see what he’s worth, fully planning on matching any reasonable offer, happy to have the deal settled. And if he gets no offer, great. They retain him at ridiculously low wages.
2. Using standard valuation models in this framework is tricky. While $1 in my pocket is worth the same as $1 in yours, a talented WR is not worth the same on all teams. In fact, he’s got 32 different valuations, depending on how his skills match up with the dynamic environment of a professional football team. It may still turn out that BM has the highest value on the Broncos.
For example, if BM is indeed as tormented by memories of DWill has it seems, he might find the best motivation playing for the the city that lost a young, bright talent. I’m surprised we haven’t seen any “Brandon, Don’t Leave Us Now” campaigns… Convincing him that he would erase his demons by facing them is a tactic that hasn’t gotten much traction, but is one of the unique factors we have going. It also highlights how BM’s value changes (sometimes radically) from one team to the next.
(Personally, I think the ‘Hawks are nuts if they spend this much on a WR while they have a swiss cheese o-line and a declining QB, but that’s just me.)
3. As TJ can attest, something else we learn from behavior economics is that, more often than not, the winning bidder at most auctions overpays. We’ve only had one team come sniffing. Wake me when we’ve got five. (Read Charlie Munger’s essay on the patterns of human misjudgement: http://www.poorcharliesalmanack.com/index.html)
4. Even considering the extraordinary variance in valuation for football players, Boldin was traded for WAY below his value. AZ got fleeced. We don’t yet know if Baltimore hit the jackpot (i.e. Boldin could still bust), but it certainly looks that way right now.
Remember, it is vital that we separate PRICE from VALUE. (e.g. You get a good deal when you buy something for a lower price than you personally value it at.). Just because one team misjudged the price-to-value equation, doesn’t mean the Broncos will.
The trick is determining value. In finance (at least in my school of thought), value is based almost exclusively on the present value of future cash flows — the trick is getting down to the fundamental components that you will use to most accurately predict those future cash flows.
What encourages me the most is that the Broncos front office seems entirely capable of determining those components themselves for this team (although it’s certainly a bit early). But unlike the Broncos’s front offices of the past, these guys seem to determine their own valuations based on their unique position, rather than listen to all the distracting blather from the assorted peanut galleries around the league.
(For more on that philosophy, read Michael Lewis’s “Moneyball”)
From Michael Lombardi
I fully expect another team to jump into the Brandon Marshall sweepstakes at some point this week. Not certain which team, but it appears Marshall has more than one team interested in his services. I do know this: The Denver Broncos won’t negotiate a trade for Marshall. Either a team is prepared to pay a first-rounder or move along. Denver will not take calls on Marshall; it’s either an offer sheet or he plays in Denver next season. If Seattle really wants Marshall, it will take the sixth pick in the draft….
Well, if he's right...
Then boom goes the dynamite.
That would definately change this entire discussion. Would teams overspend for Marshall? I mean this is a really sticky situtation but if the Broncos are saying, “First Rounder or he’ll play here next year”, then I’m liking that approach. McD and X are sending a message on what type of team they’re trying to build.
by broncodude793 on Mar 7, 2010 11:53 AM MST up reply actions
Yes
This is what I’m saying.
Keep it simple.
Too much noise becomes a distraction.
So far, I really like how McDaniels and Xanders are handling this. They have determined what THEY thing Brandon Marshall is worth to them. Eff everybody else. Either pay up or he’ll suit up in orange and blue.
PREDICTION expect a trade...
because Marshall will not sign in Denver. I find that those who feel he is going to stay will be disappointed. 15 doesnt want to stay here PERIOD. and keeping him is not an option – I am betting his agent has already indicated to the front office he wont even show up for the year.
I dont care if we over-paid him. He is going to find someone who will pay him with all the behavior clauses included and take out the $ risk.
However, what we get in return will more than likely be – 2nd rd and 4th rd picks. Everyone will be unhappy but that will be the ONLY option. I have already processed it and am accepting it when it hapens.
by Orange and Blue on Mar 7, 2010 12:09 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
No offense intended..
but i’ll take Michael Lombardi’s word on this, he seems convinced that Denver won’t take less than a first.
Thanks Dude
I was tired of banging the drum that we were expecting way too much for BM, glad to see that some reason and justification in looking at what we could really expect to get in return.
I still don’t think BM is brought back, just because there is a termendous risk and prima dona WR don’t win SB’s.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
That was my comment on John's board TJ
Thought I did leave my name, but oh well. Thanks for the citation. As a Broncos fan living in Seattle I just don’t see what interest the Hawks have in him when they have so many other holes to fill, and after the PR nightmare that was Koren Robinson it seems odd that the team would be so anxious to add another player with a long history of off-field problems.
xteve, please let me correct it, what name should I cite?
The Dude abides. I don't know about you but I take comfort in that.
You can just use xteve
that’s the name I post under here and usually on the various NFL boards. Thanks!
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