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A nice peak into the Broncos (and Patriots and Chiefs) draft strategy. Simply put - it's called the "short board." You'll need to be registered to the DP's Broncos Premium to see the story.

about 2 years ago Madmen_icon_tiny jwkcsu 1 comment 1 recs  | 

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This is a must read for anyone interested in last year's draft philosophy

The short board philosophy is a strategy that sacrifices putative value for goodness-of-fit. The assumption that most people operate on is that putative value (BPA projected value) is acquired in the draft and that winners of the draft use draft picks in the same way as people money. In other words, more picks = more value. In an ordinary market, the value of a good is measured by price, and value can always be converted into currency and used, either sooner or later.

The short board philosophy emphasizes finding players who fit a certain profile, and those players are then groomed (trained) for their positions.

The commonly held philosophy (call it a garage sale philosophy) is a static view of talent. Value is also commodified and the belief in gaining or losing value is dogmatic. For instance, the belief that a team foolishly drafted because it selected a lower ranked player gives rise to considerable consternation, even though that ‘better’ player is a poor fit. Moreover, the belief by amateur draftniks that they know who is better is odd since most of them reveal no credentials to legitimize their adamant views.

Teams that emphasize ‘bargain hunting’ instead of goodness of fit relinquish value when players are cut. The problem exists for teams using the short board/goodness of fit strategy, too, but part of the point of that strategy is to minimize the chance of washout by avoiding indiscriminate acquisitions. Some value is always wasted but teams using the short board system decrease the odds of washouts by spending wisely and thus save value, even though they appear to be sacrificing value at the time.

Fans aren’t rigorous in their observations so their perceptions are frequently incorrect. Cognitive biases such as motivated cognition color perceptions. For instance, the Broncos last draft included 10 draftees and 1 UDFA, of which only 1 was cut. Keeping 10 draftees/UDFAs is extraordinary, but it’s common to see complaints even now about how badly the Broncos drafted. It’s true that a large pick value was used in the process, but it was the lower range where the Broncos showed the least concern for conserving value and spent to acquire good fits.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Apr 11, 2010 11:00 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

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