Game Changers: The Changing Face of the Receiving Corp

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I'd like to go on record as saying that I was dead wrong about the Brandon Marshall situation.  I truly thought that McDaniels/Xanders were pursuing a strategy to convince Brandon that he was more valued by the Broncos than by any other team, and thus woo him back into the fold.  I believed that the high tender, the lack of obvious interest -- read just a single visit with Seattle -- and the public statements by both sides were leading us towards a scenario in which Brandon would choose to remain in Denver and the Broncos would extend to him an equitable contract.  The trade to Miami, and Marshall's subsequently signing a huge contract has shown me the error of my ways.  The Broncos' Front Office had obviously figured out that Brandon was about the money, and personal records (witness his statement to Florida reporters: "I play because I want to have my name in the books and win lot of games") and Denver wanted a team-first player, and was not about to pay him what he wanted.  There are other posts that have, and I'm sure will continue to examine whether or not he's worth that kind of money.  That's not what I'd like to look at here.   The focus in this article will be on how Marshall's departure, beyond any shadow of a doubt, will be a game-changer for Denver.

The Broncos' receiving corp took a very large hit this off season.  It started with the trade of Peyton Hillis to the Cleveland Browns.  It continued, and was most dramatically impacted by the trade of Brandon Marshall to the Miami Dolphins.  It will most likely be furthered affected by the fact that Tony Scheffler will most likely be traded before the end of the off season.  These three players all played a role in Denver's 2009 passing/receiving game.  Denver's 2009 passing offense was strangely frustrating.  At times, it was flashy as in the two long bombs for touchdowns in the Washington game.  At other times, it appeared anemic, as in the Baltimore game (152 yards, no touchdowns).  It did well in certain categories, and fared poorly in others.  The table that follows shows where the Broncos ranked in relation to the other 31 NFL teams in 2009.

Category	2009 NFL Ranking
Attempts	9th
Completions	11th
Completion Percentage	14th
Attempts Per Game	9th
Yards	13th
Average Per Attempt	15th
Yards Per Game	13th
Touchdowns	16th
Interceptions	7th (fewest)
First Downs	16th
First Down Percentage	16th
Longest	3rd
20+	15th
40+	13th
Sacks	15th (fewest)
Rating	15th

    The departure of Marshall and Hillis, and the likely departure of Scheffler will have an impact on the passing game.  The question becomes how much of the passing production was created by these three players?  The next table breaks down the individual player 2009 receiving stats.

Player	Position	Targets	Receptions	Reception %	Yards	Average	Touchdowns
Brandon Marshall	WR	154	101	65.5	1120	11.1	10
Jabar Gaffney	WR	88	54	61.3	732	13.6	2
Tony Scheffler	TE	50	31	62.0	416	13.4	2
Eddie Royal	WR	79	37	46.8	345	9.3	0
Brandon Stokley	WR	33	19	57.6	327	17.2	4
Daniel Graham	TE	42	28	66.7	289	10.3	1
Correll Buckhalter	RB	38	31	81.6	240	7.7	0
Knowshon Moreno	RB	41	28	68.3	213	7.6	2
Brandon Lloyd	WR	18	8	44.4	117	14.6	0
Peyton Hillis	RB	6	4	66.7	19	4.8	0

    This table shows that Marshall accounted for 29.6% of the catches.  Scheffler had 9.1% of them, while Hillis accounted for 1.1%.  Together, these three caught 39.8% of the Broncos' receptions.  Marshall amassed 29.2% of Denver's receiving yards; Scheffler had 10.9% and Hillis had less than 1%.  As a group, these three produced a little over 40% of the Broncos' receiving yards.  Marshall had 47.6% of Denver's passing touchdowns, while Scheffler added 9.5%.  Together they scored 57.1% of the Broncos' passing touchdowns.  This means that there is a very large hole in the passing production to fill.  It's helpful to break out these stats by per game average since the players did not all play the same number of games.

Player	Catches/Game	Yards/Game	TDs/Game
Brandon Marshall	6.3	70	0.625
Jabar Gaffney	3.4	45.75	0.125
Tony Scheffler	1.9	26.0	0.125
Eddie Royal	2.3	21.6	0.0
Brandon Stokley	1.2	20.4	0.25
Daniel Graham	1.75	18.0	0.06
Correll Buckhalter	1.9	15.0	0.0
Knowshon Moreno	1.75	13.3	0.125
Brandon Lloyd	0.5	7.3	0.0
Peyton Hillis	0.25	1.2	0.0

Per game, we see the same trend, that Marshall and Scheffler were important producers for the Broncos passing attack.

    The part of the story that the total numbers, and even the per game numbers fail to highlight is the consistency of the players.  How they fared from game to game.  Now it is important to remember that players will have good games and bad games.  There will be some teams that a player matches up against very while, and others who seem to get inside that same player's head and cause him to play poorly.  For example, Marshall had big games against Oakland (twice) and Indianapolis, in those three games catching 33 passes for 340 yards and 4 touchdowns.  While he was less successful against Baltimore and Cincinnati, being held to 8 catches for 51 yards and no touchdowns in those two games.  For this reason, it can be helpful to consider the consistency of the production by these two players.  For this instance, I am ignoring Hillis' production since it was minimal.  With Marshall, it is important to note the following facts:

Catches	Yards	Touchdowns
20.7% came in 1 game	17.9% came in 1 game	60% came in 3 games
31.7% came in 2 games	29.9% came in 2 games	100% came in 7 games
47.5% came in 4 games	39.9% came in 3 games	Over 1/2 of his TDs came in 1/5 of the games he played
61.3% came in 6 games	56.4% came in 5 games	His 3 biggest games came in a win and 2 losses
Over 60% of his catches came in 40% of the games he played	Over 50% of his yardage came in 1/3 of the games he played
His 4 biggest games came in 1 win and 3 losses	His 3 biggest games all came in losses

Scheffler posted the similar stats in the same categories:

Catches	Yardage	Touchdowns
19.3% came in 1 game	24.2% came in 1 game	His touchdowns came in 2 separate games
51.6% came in 4 games	37% came in 2 games
61.2% came in 5 games	48.6% came in 3 games
Over 60% of his catches came in 1/3 of the games he played	59.3% came in 4 games
His 4 biggest games came in 3 wins and a loss	Almost 60% of his yardage came in 4 games
	His biggest 4 games came in 3 wins and a loss (though not the exact same games as his biggest games in terms of catches)

What this breakdown suggests is that while overall Marshall and Scheffler were very productive, they were also "streak" players.  Their production came in clumps.  In both cases, the majority of their production came in less than a third of the games that they played.  By way of comparison, Larry Fitzgerald -- to whom Marshall has been compared by others -- spread 61% of his catches over 8 games, 56% of his yardage was spread over 7 games, and his touchdowns were spread over 11 games.  Now, we have to acknowledge that stats such as these are the result (in equal parts) of play-calling, quarterback choice, and receivers getting open.

    This is all a long winded way of saying that Marshall and Scheffler were very talented and will leave a large hole that will need to be filled.  As a result, the question now becomes, we have lost two players who contributed a great deal to the productivity of the receiving corp for the Broncos in 2009, so who do we have to replace them?

    The answer is neither simple, nor clear.  As of the time of the writing of this article, these are the players that we have who will have to step up their games if Denver's passing game is to become an effective threat to opposing defenses.

Player	Position	2009 Catches	2009 Yards	2009 TDs
Jabar Gaffney	WR	54	732	2
Eddie Royal	WR	37	345	0
Brandon Stokley	WR	19	327	4
Daniel Graham	TE	28	289	1
Correll Buckhalter	RB	31	240	0
Knowshon Moreno	RB	28	213	2
Brandon Lloyd	WR	8	117	0

All of these players will need to step up their games.  Royal, in particular, stands out in that regard -- he must have a better 2010 than his 2009 season.  Stokley will continue to be a situational player.  Graham is a steady producer -- though he did have a number of drops on easy passes last year.  Lloyd will need to become more consistent and involved.  The running backs will need to, at the very least, maintain their level of production.

We also have the following players waiting in the wings (using the most recent full season stats I could find for each; in most cases it is their stats from their senior year in college; Arrington's are from the 2008 NFL season):

Player	Position	Catches	Yards	Average	TDs
JJ Arrington	RB	29	255	8.8	1
Lance Ball	RB	18	88	4.9	0
Marquez Branson	TE	45	737	16.3	11
Bruce Hall	RB	10	101	10.1	0
Kenny McKinley	WR	54	642	11.9	4
Richard Quinn	TE	8	97	12.1	1
Matthew Willis	WR	21	219	10.4	2

If these players were to all make the team, and were all to match their last full season stats, they would come close to matching the 2009 production of Marshall, Scheffler and Hillis.  Marshall, et al, accounted for 136 catches, 1555 yards and 12 touchdowns.  This group, during the seasons cited, posted 185 catches, 2139 yards and 19 touchdowns.  Add in the possibility of Royal rising closer to his rookie year form, and we may not see as much of a drop-off in receiving production as might be feared.

    I acknowledge that there are a lot of "if's" in this evaluation.  Yet there are some things that are very clear.  The trade of Marshall and Hillis, along with the probable departure of Scheffler, will have an impact in a number of areas for the Broncos this off season. 

First, it will directly impact the Broncos' draft strategy and off season player acquisitions.  The front office will definitely be looking for additional help in the wide receiver position.  This may not be a first, nor even a second round, pick, but we will most likely see the Broncos take at least one wide receiver during the draft. Another scenario might have us making a trade which would include a current NFL wide receiver.  Plus, there will be receivers to be found in college free agency.

Second, there will a greater importance placed on participation by the receivers in off season workouts, OTAs, training camp and the preseason.  Where in 2009, it was pretty much a given which players would be starting, which would be leaned upon for production, etc., the 2010 off season will be seeing positions that are up for grabs.  Gaffney is most likely a lock for the #1 position, and his 213 yards in the Kansas City game show that he can be counted on as a go-to guy.  Lloyd's 95 yards in that same game show what he's capable of when he brings his "A-game," though it's too early to tell if he can consistently produce at that level.  Royal may well find himself on the hot seat and -- if he fails to produce during the off season -- find himself on the outside looking in when it comes to being a starter.  We'll have young, hungry players pushing for roster spots and playing time, in Kenny McKinley and Matthew Willis.  Competition will most likely be fierce this off season, with all receivers seeing an open opportunity to "strut their stuff," since there is no longer an established "pecking order."

Third, we will most likely see an even greater emphasis on situational players.  McDaniels has consistently advocated situational playing and situational players.  Both Correll Buckhalter and J. J. Arrington were brought in in 2009 with the view that they would fill situational roles in the Denver offense.  Arrington was the more notable of the two in that regard, with the belief being that he would be used mainly as a 3rd down back who could block, and then slide out for an outlet pass if needed.  Just as Shanahan several seasons ago ran a running back by committee season, we may well see a wide receiver by committee style approach in 2010.

    So, while the initial reaction might be to panic, and worry about what we no longer have, the reality is not nearly as grim.  Last season, Denver's receiving corp was comprised of 7 wide receivers, 3 tight ends and 4 running backs.  Currently, Denver's roster includes 6 wide receivers, 3 tight ends and 5 running backs.  That does not take into account whatever additional players may be gained through the draft and college free agency.  There are also still free agent wide receivers currently on NFL rosters which could be traded for, if the Broncos were so inclined.  If our current roster players (Gaffney, Stokley, Graham, Buckhalter, Moreno, Lloyd) can match their 2009 production, if Royal can bring his game back up to the level of his rookie play, if the players waiting in the wings can contribute at a level commensurate with the last full season (whether in the NFL or in college), then the Broncos could be looking at a 363 catch, 4000 yard season.

    A lot of "ifs?"  Of course, but that is the nature of any NFL season.  Every season is affected by a myriad of factors from personnel, to coaching, to injuries, and so forth.  I think all of us would be hard pressed to find an example wherein the loss of one player, or the addition of one player broke or made a team's season.  There are lots of reasons that Denver won 8 games last season, and the passing game was but one facet.  There's lots of questions about that facet going into 2010, but there are also lots of possibilities.  It's going to be a wild and exciting ride to see who rises to the occasion and shines in the coming season.