Playing with house money: A drafting theory and the threat of a lock out.




Hi MHR Crew!


Waking up this morning REALLY feels like the new era for the Denver Broncos has started. Maybe its the drafting of Tebow and D Thom...or the jettisoning of the Scheffler and Marshall....or maybe a combination of both......but today feels fresh and full of hope, where this time last year I was enthused but still doubted the direction.


One thing that we know about McD.....and also Xanders, Kidd and the rest of the brainstrust is that these guys have BALLS OF STEEL. They look at things differently, they think outside the box, and they are leading the way in how business is being conducted in the NFL. Part of the credit belongs to McDaniel's apprenticeship with New England, but McD is his own man, and he has surrounded himself with like minded people. Denver is turning the game on its head....and I am psyched on it!


With this in mind, I would like to lead you guys thru a theory I have, why I have the theory and the plan I think McX will follow tonight.


Read on and enjoy!



We have been reading and hearing about this for the past 2 years, and just the THREAT of a lock out has done a couple of things:

  • It saw a GLUT of TALENTED juniors come out in this draft. They saw this as their last chance for a pay day or contract in case their is a lock out next year.
  • Combined with the seniors as well, we are seeing the 2010 draft be FULL of high quality players at cheaper prices due to the depth of this draft.
  • Next years draft, with the veil of a lock out hanging over it, will be very shallow in depth. WHY? Because many of the talented juniors will take the opportunity to stay in college and play their senior year. it gives them another year of development, allows them to play the game and strengthens their chance for a BETTER contract in 2012.
  • 2011 draft will be senior drop off in talent will be sharp.
  • Even without a lock out, there WILL be a rookie scale, and this will see juniors stay in college longer to develop their game as their wont be as much incentive for an early pay day.

SO, with this mind, lets look at how this might effect the VALUE of picks.

  • Clearly, a 1st round pick, at least in the Top 15, should be fairly even between this years and next years draft. There will be some very good players coming out next year.
  • Due to glut of talented players this year, we have a DEEP draft. Threat of lock out next year may provide a SHALLOW draft. It is very feasible, in fact, makes common sense, that a 2nd this year is probably worth a mid round first in next years draft.  I even believe that a late 2nd/ early 3rd this year will equate to a high 1st/ early 2nd in next years draft. This will correlate all the way down the draft.

With all this in mind, what do you think McDaniels and Xanders are thinking?





I am going to put myself in Denver's War Room. I know I still have a 2nd and 2 x 3rd going into tonights rounds. I know this is the deepest draft in years, and I know I still have needs to fill on our roster.


I have already given a clue to what I am doing. I took a BPA/Need with Demaryus Thomas. As much as I needed a WR, I took an EXPLOSIVE player with CRAZY upside when there MAY have been some more NFL ready prospects on the board, or maybe available to me in the 2nd. I also took Tim Tebow who was an ABSOLUTE luxury pick, who has great upside as well, but who will PROBABLY not start for at least a season.


The question I have to ask is why would I do this? Why give away so many picks ti get Tebow when I was up to 10 picks. I now only have 6 picks left. Or do I????


We know this is deep draft, we know the VALUE of this draft is huge. We have NO salary cap......and we can get 1st round talent at bargain prices.


And guess what.....I traded Brandon Marshall for 2 x 2nd round this year, and one next year. I also have next years 1st and 2nd as well.


I will leave that with you for a minute.......cue the JEOPARDY music...........





McD is on record as saying he will be aggressive today. Many WANT picks next year as a rookie salary cap would MORE THAN LIKELY be in place, but there is no guarantee there will not be a lock out, and even then, there is a strong possibility that next years draft will still not be as deep as this years.'s whats going to happen:

  • McD will be aggressive.
  • He is going to move around the 2nd round and I can forsee us taking 5 or so players amongst the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
  • McD will have 3 picks, but will also use NEXT YEARS 1ST AND 2ND ROUND PICKS as the quality in this years draft. McD has BALLS OF STEEL  and is going to be a major player NOW!
  • The Free agent class next year is going to be MASSIVE, so McX plays the draft game now and the FA game next season.

HERE is a list of players still available. It is a HEAVY LIST of 1st round talent in the 2nd round. How would these guys look in a Denver uniform?

  • Sergio Kindle
  • Roger Saffold
  • Everson Griffin
  • Taylor Mays
  • Charles Brown
  • Brian Price
  • Golden Tate
  • Arrelious Benn
  • Navarro Bowman
  • Terrance Cody
  • Vlad Ducasse
  • Ron Gronkowski
  • Koa Misi
  • Brandon Spikes
  • Aaron Hernandez
  • Toby Gerhart
  • Damine Williams
  • Zane Beadles
  • Jon Asamoah

.........and the list goes on!



This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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