More Draft Analysis

Round #1

 I’m on the fence with the 1st round, especially Thomas. I really like his potential. He has a very high ceiling. I think the comparisons to BMarsh are actually off. He's faster and a better vertical threat than Marshall. He probably isn't going to be the monster that BMarsh was to tackle in the open field. As far as route running goes, he needs to learn and Marshall still had a ways to go in that department as well. My concerns are not so much that we took Thomas, it's that we took him while 3 players in particular were still available.

1. Brian Bulaga OT, Iowa. Honestly, this was the only player on the board that we had to jump the Packers to get, and I think we should have done it. He’s an athletic big man with the feet to play left tackle. He could have started at guard for us immediately (and would be better than Beadles) and provided depth behind the injury prone Harris and versatility to the line if Clady were to go down. When your biggest need is offensive line and a player that was pretty much a consensus top 10 guy falls in your area, I have some reservations about not taking him.

 2. Dan Williams DT, Tennessee. Very few analysts would have batted an eye if Williams had gone in the #10-#15 range. He's 330 pounds of run-stuffing, pocket pushing, hold the line manhood. I liked what I saw from Baker last preseason, but there's a reason he went undrafted. Williams would have played right away as he learned the position from Nunnely and Jamaal Williams. Once again I have to question the wisdom of skipping a need/value match like this was at #22, and we might very well have had him at #24 and kept our 4th. Green Bay sure wasn’t going to take him with their NT rotation set. NE might have but who knows with NE?

 3. Jared Odrick DE, Penn St. Prototypical 5-tech defensive end. His strength is anchoring against the run on the edge. He's not a brilliant pass rusher but has some ability there which is a bonus. The DEs are still my biggest question mark on the defense going into the season. We patched something together last year and we may be in the same boat this year. I expect Bannen to start there, but there is no guarantee he'll be an upgrade. While not the value at #22 that Bulaga or Williams would have been, few would have considered him a reach. And the fact is, we could almost certainly had him at #24. He’s at least the equal of Thomas as a need/value match, and in my opinion DE was a bigger concern than WR going into the draft.

 As far as the Tim Tebow pick goes, I'm fine with it for the most part. It does feel somewhat like a luxury pick considering all our needs and the fact that he will take time to develop. At the same time, that we have the personnel on the roster to allow him to develop as a QB while contributing in other ways is a plus for the pick. I definitely don't believe he would have made it to our second rounder so we clearly had to package something to move up to get him. I do wonder if Baltimore might have taken a little less than what they did for us to get there. While it's clear at this point that the sole reason those picks were acquired was to have the ammo to get Tebow, I still have a hard time with giving up a 2, 3, and 4 for a project when we have a ton of holes to fill.

As far as Thomas and Tebow as players, I think they both have a good chance to make us better in the long run, I just question if they were really the best choices for the team to win right now. I especially wouldn’t want to bet against Tebow finding a way to be a stud QB over time.

Round #2

This is the pick that I truly hate in this draft. Yes he’s a high character, hard-working, smart guy. He or an equivalent player would absolutely have been there in the third round though. In fact, I’m 95% certain that we could have had Beadles himself at either #80 or #87. It especially annoys me when I see some of the following names: Linval Joseph, Toby Gerhart, Mike Neal, Terrence Cody, Golden Tate, Vladimir Ducasse, Brandon Spikes, Jon Asomoah, Alex Carrington, John Jerry, Donald Butler. All these players went between where we did pick Beadles and where we could have picked Beadles. If we take J.D. Walton at #80 then we likely could have taken Beadles at #87.

There were three OGs taken after Beadles and before Walton. Coming into the draft, I wasn’t that high on Ducasse, was neutral on Asomoah, and actually really liked John Jerry. That said I like J.D. Walton plus any one of those three guys for our line more than I like J.D. Walton and Beadles.

The other annoying part is that we could have traded back for another pick AND still had one of the eleven players mentioned above, or Beadles himself. If you really, really like Beadles then fine, but find a way to get the maximum value for your picks while getting the players you targeted.

The 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you get the core of a great NFL team. I don’t think we did ourselves any favors in the 2nd.

Round #3

I have the complete opposite feeling for the 3rd round. These two picks I love. Good players at positions we need to upgrade chosen where their value is high.

While J.D. Walton is not the freakish athlete for the interior offensive line that is Maurkice Pouncey, he’s still just about everything you want in the pivot. He’s intelligent with a great football IQ, he’s tough with a mean streak on the field, he’s durable, and he gives his all on every play. He’s the only player we took in the first three rounds that is a sure-fire day one starter for the Broncos from the time he walks in the building. Now what more could you want at pick #80. 

For those that believe in numerology, isn’t it interesting that Eric Decker was taken with pick #87? Can anyone else hear Invesco reverberating with the rhythmic chant of, “E-ric!, E-ric!, E-ric!” If you can’t tell, he reminds me of another tall WR that once wore the orange and blue. A WR who was tough as nails, caught nearly everything thrown in his zip code, ran great routes, and knocked people on their tuckus when he blocked downfield. While I like Demaryius Thomas’s potential, I expect Decker to contribute more right away, and wouldn’t be surprised if we look back ten years from now and see Eric with the better career. Now THAT is draft value.

Round #4

No picks due to our first round maneuvering. I’m sure in the coming days that we are going to do the pros and cons to death of giving up a 2nd, 3rd, and two 4th round picks to guarantee that Thomas and Tebow became Broncos. Personally, I think we probably could have stood pat at #24 and had Thomas. And even if he is taken, I’m perfectly happy with either Dan Williams or Jared Odrick at that spot. In fact, I probably would have preferred it. In other words, we should have had at least one 4th round pick and still got a targeted player.

Did we give up more than we had to to get back into the 1st for Tebow? I think we probably could have replaced the 3rd or 4th in the package we gave with a 5th or 6th and still had Ozzy’s attention. In other words, we could have probably bought our way back in with a 2nd, 4th, and 5th, or a 2nd, 3rd, and 6th. Still that’s a little nit-picky even for me. I’m fine with the Tebow trade for the most part.

We still should have had at least one pick in this round.

Round #5

It’s perfectly appropriate to remove character concerns from your first round board. Missing on first rounders because of their temperament is just as bad as misjudging talent and can set your franchise back years. At the same time, it’s perfectly appropriate to take a risk with character concerns later in the draft when the talent value is very high. That’s what we have with Perrish Cox. Talent-wise, he averages about a 2nd round grade. A few teams even had him rated as a late 1st in ability. Most think he has starter potential at CB, he’ll have a chance to win the KR job and free up Eddie Royal to play offense exclusively, and I’m guessing he contributes on coverage teams as well. That’s value meeting need. I like this pick a lot.

Round #6

Meh. I expect that Eric Olsen will provide depth at all three interior line positions and compete for a starting job over the long term. Can’t expect much more out of a 6th rounder.

I think my biggest problem with both Olsen and Beadles is neither is Bulaga. If we were gonna give up a fourth to leap-frog the Packers then I just can’t convince myself that he shouldn’t have been the pick. And if he’s the pick, then we can use either our 2nd or 6th to fill another hole. Especially our 2nd.

Round #7

We our gave our 5th rounder next year to make sure we got a couple of intriguing developmental prospects in Syd’Quan Thompson and Jammie Kirlew. If we had them rated in the 5th to 6th round range then that trade is appropriate. I’m okay with trading a marginal pick next year for a couple guys the coaching staff liked in this draft.