2010 Early Schedule Analysis and Prediction Part 3

This is just about time to make predictions, and the day of the mock draft passed, schedule mocks will begin. I am not really a fan of trying to predict the schedule, especially those who really just throw out wins and loses without explain why, so to try and avoid being a hypocrite, I tried to be as thorough as possible. This is based off the current state of the teams, including the draft, but without updated depth charts or any pre-season play. Since we have just received the schedule, I can try and take momentum into account here.

This is an in-depth look at each team we play and the changes they've made, I tried to be a bit more thorough then a normal prediction might be, and what I think the outcome will be. This is quite a bit long, so I encourage you to read the whole thing, but it might take a little while. If you have a problem with what outcome I've put for a game, please read my explanation before you start arguing with me please.

Week 1

Jacksonville (away):

Free agency and the draft: Made some moves early in FA in January, adding depth with 2nd string players. By adding Aluala and Smith to their DL, they are improving a pretty decent defense, and it didn't hurt that they spent their first 4 picks on their defensive line. This team has been trying to build up and become a more solid team, but they aren't at that level yet.

The game: This team is one that I think is headed the route of the Rams, not their record just their style, with a strong running back and a decent quarterback, the Jags will be coming out of the gates fighting next season. Sadly, they really haven't done much to improve in free agency, which means that this team will be one that will struggle if injury sets in during the pre-season.. Dangerous in their own division, they aren't really much to be feared, even at home, where they rarely sell out. If we can contain Maurice Jones-Drew, I think this game shouldn't be to bad. Also having Tebow come into town might be fun too. W

Week 2

Seattle (home):

Free agency and the draft: Seattle has made a lot of move this off season, signing Whitehurst, and trading Burleson, as well as smaller moves, and add in a great draft, Seattle is shaping up to make a great competitor in future seasons. By picking up Earl Thomas, Walter Thurmond, and Kam Chancellor adds some great weapon on defense and adding Okung will give Hasselbeck some time to use his new weapon in Golden Tate. They also add depth in their RB corp by trading for LeDale White and Leon Washington. Seattle's draft is just fantastic and very well rounded.

The game: This team has done some good moves this off-season, as well as a fantastic draft, enough to move them around being an 8-8 team, but it is hard seeing them as a real competitor yet. While their defense has improved some, Earl Thomas makes it bit scarier then before when you could throw blindfolded into the secondary and not worry, it isn't enough to compete with a good offense and a dominating defense either way. Their offense is looking much better, and with a very solid running game, and an improved passing game, there team won't be as much of a pushover as last season. But if we can continue to maintain our strong defense, I think we can hold of this rising team. The Seahawks always play much better at home, and with their good draft this will be a good game but they are just a year or two shy of being a real competitor. W

Week 3

Indianapolis (home):

Free agency and the draft: The Colts have been fairly quiet this off season with mostly small FA moves, and with their draft they added just a few players that will fix some small holes in this team, continuing to put a few more pieces into their puzzle. Their draft did a good job of giving depth to a defense that has been getting better each season.

The game: We are luck to be facing them at Mile High, and with the Colts just returning from playing the Manning Bowl, it could be interesting, but while we put a good game last season, much closer than the score showed, I still can't see use really upsetting the Colts. It's hard to imagine Manning having another bad game against us, and looking back, if he hadn't thrown 3 interceptions, it wouldn't have been nearly as close. Our defense is improved in my opinion, so we will still be able to not let Manning control the field, but few teams can keep up with the Colts offense, it took the Saints to finally put them down. While I like us to be so lucky, I really can't see it happening. L

Week 4

Tennessee (away):

Free agency and the draft: Tennessee have lost some players in FA, but to me by picking up Derrick Morgan in the draft will add a great defense player for a defense that has been falling part since their great team a few years ago. A few seasons ago losing LenDale White would have been a big lose, but not to much, unless of course if Chris Johnson gets hurt. Other then Morgan, their moves and picks are adding depth but don't make an immediate impact.

The game: This team was pretty hyped at the beginning and end of last season, but that may have been to either the past seasons record, or to a soft schedule. I like Chris Johnson, but I don't think he can carry a Vince Young lead offense for very long. This team doesn't have the tools of defense anymore to stop any decent offense. The Titans are often the talk of underachievement, and that will continue next season, like last season. While Young is dangerous and explosive, he is also very unreliable for most of the game, and with a defense in transition, this team has too many variables to be reliable winners. If we can contain Johnson from making any big runs, I think our offense will overpower their weakening defense. It will be tough, but I don't think home field will be enough to stop us here. W

Week 5

Baltimore (away):

Free agency and the draft: The Ravens have had a fantastic off season, fixing almost everything that was wrong with their team. Many viewed their defense on the decline, but after this draft by picking Kindle art Jones and Cody, this team has built a foundation for another decade of defense. And by bringing in Boldin, this team gave Joe Flacco another weapon to work with. Picking up Ed Dickson Dennis Pitta, at TE will be a good long term answer to when Todd Heap begins to slip.

The game: This team has been slowly rising and then falling from grace, the picture of inconsistent play, roasting the Patriots in the playoffs, but getting swept by the Bengals in some embarrassing games. But if Ray Rice can stay strong and Flacco do a good job of keeping the passing game going, I believe their defense is just too strong and they will keep us at bay. With Boldin on their team now, I think this game could turn out to be a battle of two very evenly matched teams. Both will have strong defenses and decent offenses. But the fact that it's in Baltimore gives the Ravens the edge on a very even match. If this were to come at another time in the season, it wouldn't be so bad, but after tough games against Indy and the Titans, going into Baltimore, I think we just won't be able to win here. L

Week 6

New York Jets (home):

Free agency and the draft: Not enough can be said about the moves the Jets have made, they are bringing in everyone and their dog. This team has added, Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, Sheppard and Jason Taylor to their defense, and while losing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, they add LT, Santonio Holmes, and they draft running backs Joe McKnight and John Conner. Adding Ducasse also give the shaky Sanchez some more time to throw. This team has built itself the best defense I have seen in a long time.

The game: The Jets have made some big moves this off-seasons, and their defense has become even better, if that possible, with the pick up of Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson and Jason Taylor. Mark Sanchez will improve next season, and with a good running game, and adding some new offensive weapons, their offense will be a bit more balanced than last season, but don't look for a high scoring game. But with a strong defense, I believe they can shut our running game down, and with Cromartie and Wilson joining Revis, I don't think Orton will be able to overcome this team, their defense is just too good. This will make for a tough loss in the middle of the season. L

Week 7

Oakland (home):

Free agency and the draft: The Raiders, surprisingly, have played it pretty smart this off season and with the draft. Kyle Boller gives some more security at the shaky position of QB, but for them the best FA pick up was Jason Campbell, who is the best quarterback on that roster, and by adding McClain, Walter McFadden and Houston to an already strong defense, this team will be much better next season, if they can keep it together. Al Davis also got lucky to pick Bruce Campbell in the later round, and by adding Jared Veldeer they give themselves some more room to breath behind their offensive line.

The game: At home, we have a strong chance of taking down the Raiders, which is just what we need after two tough losses. They have done little to improve over last season, outside of an unusually quiet and safe draft, and I don't think they will have as much luck on their side as internal problems will come to the surface that have been building for a while. Their strong defense will not be able to overcome offensive woes, and who ever is quarterback won't be able to get much going in the Mile High City. Look for a pep talk from the captains before this game, similar to Dawkins player meeting last season. W

Week 8

San Francisco (away):

Free agency and the draft: By bringing in Ted Ginn Jr. San Fran adds another weapon to a great special teams unit and a decent receiver to a shallow receiving corp. But outside of swapping Shaun Hill out and bringing in David Carr, which didn't change much really, not much happened in FA. But luckily they were blessed with a lot of picks in the top 3 rounds of the draft, picking up some key pieces for Singletary to work with this next season. Mays, who has yet to prove he can play at an NFL level, will be a solid player for them, either at SS or LB. And by adding Iupati and Davis to their OL, Frank Gore will have a bit more room to run. Their late round picks, won't immediately start, but add depth to their offense.

The game: This game takes place in London, so it's more of an neutral game rather than an away game. I like what the 49niners have done, but bringing in David Carr really isn't going to do much against the Broncos defense, nor is signing Ted Ginn. While Gore may try to carry the day for San Francisco, especially with their shiny new offensive line, I don't think their offense is at the point where it can keep up with us. Coming off a big win in Oakland, Denver will play with confidence, and should be able to handle the Niners across the pond. W

Week 9

Heading into our bye, a record of 5-3 isn't fantastic, but some of the toughest games are behind us. Looking forward, the team will need to focus to take on San Diego both times after the bye. The Broncos should be playing with some swagger about now, especially if they can get the wins over San Francisco and Oakland, but even more if we can get a win against the Jets, Colts, or Ravens.

Week 10

Kansas City (home):

Free agency and the draft: Kansas City had a lot of picks to play with this draft, especially in the first 3 rounds, and fixed a few hole there. Eric Berry should be starting, either at CB or FS on week 1, and will give a little security to their weak secondary, which they also  addressed by drafting Arenas. But the strangest move for me was, after bringing in Thomas Jones, you go and draft McCluster. Having so many glaring needs, to take a back after having two who can carry the load alone seems strange to me. While he will make a great returner and a threat out of the backfield, he now makes for a very full running back pool over in KC.

The game: At home we should be able to beat the Chiefs, and even though it's been a while, the thought of Jamaal Charles running over our defense will still be on our players minds.They have improved over last season, creating what could be the greatest 3 back tandem, if that makes sense, by picking up Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, but I don't think our defense will let us have a week 17 repeat. I don't see their defense being enough to stop a decent offense, I would have been only a little worried about their secondary, but by picking up Eric Berry, it may be a bit tough to dominate this defense, but in the end Berry and their run game won't be enough, and Orton will out gun Cassel, again. W

Week 11

San Diego (away):

Free agency and the draft: San Diego let go Cromartie, Jamal Williams, and LT, and really didn't act much in FA outside of signing CB's Nathan Vasher and Donald Strickland,  but made some good moves in the draft. Picking up Ryan Mathews is a great move, giving them a back who can run it up the middle, something Sproles isn't built to do. Donald Butler brings some hope that San Diego's defense can continue to grow, and by nabbing Cam Thomas in the draft, they fix their hole in the middle and not sink after losing some key pieces.

The game: San Diego in November and December are unbeatable, no question, especially at home. They have won a record 18 games in a row in December, against some really good teams. While they have made a lot of changes, mostly letting people go, I still think they will be a tough team to beat, especially late in the season. By picking up Ryan Mathews, the Chargers balance out their offensive attack after losing LT, making it even harder to shut them down. Despite the losses of Cromartie and LT, they are still one of the toughest teams to beat, and going into Qualcomm will be tough, I just can't see us winning there. L

Week 12

St. Louis (home):

Free agency and the draft: Drafting Bradford at #1 gives them the quarterback of the future, but unless they can protect him, it will be 2009 all over again, for both Bradford and the Rams. By drafting Roger Saffold, they have in place a young OL, which will struggle against good defenses but will be an improvement over last season. And by cutting Boller and Bulger, the Rams kind of shove Bradford in front of a moving train with only Steven Jackson to save him. They have lost a lot of 2nd and 3rd string players, and if injures set in, this team will struggle.

The game: Ah just what we needed, the Rams are rebuilding, but have done little so far to change their current sad state, I can't think of any reason on this Earth for us to lose this game, unless of course Steven Jackson pulls a huge game on us like KC did at the end of the season, but I really can't see that happening with all the changes we've made to the defensive line. At this point in the season, Sam Bradford will be black and blue, if not injured from the weakness in that offensive line, so if we can stop the running back, this game could turn out well.  W

Week 13

Kansas City (away):

Free agency and the draft: See week 10

The game: For me, this was one of the toughest games to pick, we have only won less then a handful of games out of the last 18 games at Arrowhead in December, and they are a team that looks to be a bit more dangerous this next season, especially in the winter. I like what we did last season there, and I really want to say we can do it again, but it's hard to call, and if we face them in Arrowhead this late in the season, I think we might just face an off-week, and KC is known to take advantage of a bad day. Tough to call, but I like to be conservative here. L

Week 14

Arizona (away):

Free agency and the draft: Starting your off season by losing Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and Antrel Rolle is never a good sign, but the Cardinals have made some good moves to help patch up some other holes. By bringing in Joey Porter and Kerry Rhodes, they manage to find a quick fix, if only short term, to their defense, and by bringing in Dan Williams, O'Brien Schofield and Daryl Washington add some youth. Bringing in Derek Anderson gives some security if Matt Leinhart doesn't pan out, but isn't a great option, and John Skelton is an interesting pick up. Whom ever starts has a brand new toy in Andre Roberts, a great receiver who should start as soon as possible.

The game: This team has lost a lot, and done only patch work to fill the voids left by the departure of key players, the most important of which was Kurt Warner. While still a decent team, the once powerful offense will not be able to make up for this now weakened team overall, and I don't think they will be able to match up against us well at, even home. Arizona at this point may be fighting for it's playoff life, but having either Derek Anderson or Matt Leinhart at the helm will not be enough, even at home. Fitz will still catch whatever is thrown his way, but this team looks too soft to compete against an aggressive defense. Arizona has tendency to lose games it shouldn't late in the season, this will be one of those games. W

Intermission: Okay at this point, we are 8-5 and in full gear to not finish 2010 like the past two seasons, the Chargers are probably in a similar boat, going strong near the end, just shy of clinching the division, so at this point it's make it or break it.

Week 15

Oakland (away):

Free agency and the draft: see week 7

The game: This season I think we will manage to keep it together and contain the unpredictable Raiders. Last season they won some surprising games against good teams, Denver, Philly, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Not this season, Oakland has done a lot to become a better football team, but like the Seahawks and the Rams, the are just lacking a few pieces, we won't repeat last seasons lose again. This late in the season, I see the Broncos having a lot of steam heading into the post season, rather then falling apart like in the past. W

Week 16

Houston (home):

Free agency and the draft: By bringing in Ben Tate, the Texans, now have a very solid running attack, hopefully one that is more consistent and fumble free. Taking Kareem Jackson so early was surprising, but he will still make a good CB, and along with Sherrick McManis they get some help with their struggling defense. But hopefully by adding Earl Mitchell, they have found someone who can either start, of switch in and out on the defensive line. But outside of the draft, Houston has done little to help it's shaky situation.

The game:This is a hard team to figure out, losing to Jacksonville twice, then winning games agianst New England and the Bengals. With a lot of weapons on offense, Schaub and Johnson lead a powerful passing attack, and now they have 3 good running backs in Sloan, Moats, and Tate, they have and will to struggle to live up to expectations. But if Schaub can pull a big day out of his offense, it will be hard to keep up with the Texans. While I want to say we'll win this it's hard to do, this team is dangerous and unpredictable. But, and that's one big but, we are at home here, coming off two wins, and if we can win here, we are set for the playoffs. It will depend on which Texans team shows up, but either way, I think we can pull this one out in a great game, out playoff lives depend on it. W

Week 17

via a.espncdn.com

San Diego (home):

Free agency and the draft: See week 11

The game: Could you ask for any better way to end the season, a huge way to conclude what might be one of the best seasons in while?  The Chargers have the longest winning streak in December, but December will be over, so maybe we can pull off some magic here. San Diego may be fighting for a 1st round bye, so they will come out fighting, making it tough to win. I have looked and looked, we now have the weapons on offense to compete a bit better then before, and with the changes to our DL, I hope we can match up, but Philip Rivers is a great quarterback. The Chargers have lost a lot of their weapons, and coming into Mile High, and not having Chris Simms as our starter automatically gives us a better chance then last season. I think this will be a big game, and we will want to spoil the Chargers late season drive, but I just don't think we can beat San Diego here, man it's a tough call. Okay I can't make up my mind, this late in the season, the Chargers are on fire, but if our defense can survive to this game, I believe we now have the weapons to go toe to toe with San Diego. Whatever letter comes next has been changed who knows how many times, but here goes. L

Record: 10-6, we make the playoffs (hopefully)!

Part 1 prediction: 10-6

Part 2 prediction: 10-6

I tried to make my explanations thorough, and hope I did a good job saying why we either won or loss. While this has a note that it can go +/- 1 game either way, I still see us having a winning year no matter what, we have made too many improvements. I was kind of surprised the record stayed the same during the the parts, but some wins and loses did get switched around. I would love to know what peoples analysis on games where they question my outcome so I can get a better feel from those who may follow those teams more closely.

P.S. For all you kool-aid drinkers, I want "13-3 till we aren't" too, just trying to be realistic.