Lessons Learned and the 2010 Draft

by Kdo09 on Apr 3, 2010 5:51 PM MDT

Ok everyone. I am NOT a draftnik. I am NOT a college football fan. I AM a professional analysis. What I think nearly everyone is missing in their mock drafts is an explanation of HOW these picks fit into what we learned from last year.

Homework!! Everyone needs to re-read “MHR University Special Report - A Profoundly Powerful Draft Strategy (2009)” by Steve Nichols. April 27, 2009. Mr. Nichols wrote an incredible piece explaining (in his opinion) the strategy that was applied to the 2009 draft. It fit like a glove.

What has really happened in the example? The team has picked up the "best" player based on the probability that the player will succeed (a young LT), regardless of the position he plays. Had the team picked up seven NTs in the draft, though none was scouted as probable for success, would that have done any good? In the line of thinking that "the team needs a NT", the fallacy enters the thinking when the fan (or expert) assumes that one of these "tickets" will pay off. The catch is that it isn't likely to. One "Tomlinson" ticket is more likely to pay off because he is rated as the most likely to succeed regardless of position. Seven NT tickets are not likely to succeed because they aren't rated on a probability to win, but rated on a desire to see a certain player or position (which limits the pool).

Let’s look at the first several picks from last year to illustrate what Mr. Nichols found.

Moreno- “This is the best running back in the draft.”

Ayers- ““The best defensive player in the draft” or just “the best defensive lineman in the draft””

Smith- “The best intercepting, ball hawker”

McBath- “This kid is the best deep-coverage safety in the draft”

Quinn- “the best pass-blocking TE in the draft”

Now, we have no idea if this is going to be the same strategy used this year but it IS the best evidence we’ve got to go on. So now I ask all of you. Who fits this mold? Who would be able to provide the biggest impact to the Broncos THIS YEAR? Who are the BESTS? The only players that keep popping up on my radar are:

McClain- The best ILB in the draft

Iupati- The best OG in the draft

Pouncey- The best center in the draft

Outside of these three players I have NOTHING. Help me out.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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McD has already admitted he wasn't as prepared...

for the draft as he wanted to be. This tells me the same approach won’t be taken this year.

by TXBroncoFan on Apr 3, 2010 6:05 PM MDT reply actions

Somebody once called it silly to think that McD wasn't prepared

Wish I could remember who so that I could credit him, as I fully agree with their take.

It’s likely that not having your own trusted scouts and scouting program in place for much time hindered the later rounds and shortened their big board, but I find it near impossible to believe that they weren’t fully up to speed on all targets in the first-rounds.

I see it like Chess; your first three moves are often the same. I expect the same strategy in the early rounds this year as we saw last year: Put the team in the best situation to win by filling your biggest needs with your best resources.

Give me impact at center, copmetence at guard and an upgrade at linebacker - sprinkle in strides from having the same system for two years in a row - and I'll show you a contender!

by Alex on Apr 3, 2010 8:26 PM MDT up reply actions

colinski i believe..

by HorseStance on Apr 4, 2010 2:20 AM MDT up reply actions

Josh McDaniels never stated that he wasn't prepared for the draft.

What he did say was, that he has more time to study and evaluate more prospects. I think McDaniels is a very methodical man and thinks out each and every angle with precision. One glaring trait we can all agree on, is the signing of Chris Baker. I have found Baker as going in the 2nd or 3rd round on some mock drafts of prominent draft guru’s. Picking him up in CFA has to speak to volumes of McD/X’s ability to find forgotten talent. What I want to see is McDaniels’ #37 pick succeed and if he does, then, that will lay to rest any misconception that pick may have given. If Alphonso Smith turns into a Darrell Green like player it will make McD/X look like genius’

Will we see them pick players the same way they did last year? I think so and if we are to believe that we can pretty well zero in on the first couple of picks. I’m not telling and when I write my mock it won’t be posted like last year but sent directly to the contest…It’s a secret between me and Josh…LOL

by bfree2bronc on Apr 4, 2010 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions

He may have been trying to a bit humble

But a man like him doesn’t go into something like this unprepared.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Apr 4, 2010 12:15 AM MDT up reply actions

Systems

One thing that had to come into it for the Broncos can be seen by looking over the complex systems that both New England and Atlanta use. There was little time to put approaches that complex and intricate into place, and the shouting match with the younger Goodman (which led to the exit of both) gives a good indication of how different the various perspectives on the draft were. I think that Denver did well given the circumstances, but they have a different head of scouting now, some different people on the lower scouting playroll and a year’s worth of time to establish the Denver system, whether it’s the NE, ATA or a combination of the two. I tend to agree – unprepared is probably overstating the case, but they have a lot more in place than they did a year ago.

It all starts with the lines

by Doc Bear on Apr 5, 2010 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions

Total agreed

This off-season is much more stable and less rushed then the last one, and that’s great.

My emptiness says it doesn't care.

by Topher Doll on Apr 5, 2010 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions

I think I'd disagree

Once again, I dont know this but I would assume that his “not prepared” would be more in reference to the work needed to assess the players. Not necessarily on the strategy behind it.

by Kdo09 on Apr 3, 2010 6:13 PM MDT reply actions

Revisiting Steve Nichols April 27 09 post

Thanks for posting a reminder to Steve’s post. A reread was well worth the time and further cause for thought. McDaniel’s made a priority of hiring coaches who have excellent reputations for teaching. Rather than just hanging the hat on the Broncos drafting prospects “that are the best at something” it may also be true they are drafting for pure star potential, with coaching/teaching being counted on heavily.

Your post is a nice reminder that McDaniel’s has a solid and well thought out team development plan that is likely to be well in place after this draft. Give him 3 drafts and the foundation is laid…the remaining element is experience, so this makes it clear how giving him 5 years is necessary.

"Peace, a journey without distance to a place we have never left."

by BroncoCUbuffs on Apr 3, 2010 6:29 PM MDT reply actions

Here's a link to HT's post, by the way.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2009/4/27/855605/mhr-university-special-report-a

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
PS3 ID: broncomaniac6

by Troy Hufford on Apr 3, 2010 6:42 PM MDT reply actions

Great post, I guess the question is who is most likely to be a pro bolwer at 11....

I don’t see us passing on McClain if he’s there. I’d say it really depends on who “Wink” thinks he can work with thats currently on the roster.It’s McClain if he thinks we don’t have solid replacement for the ILB we just cut. I personaly am hopeing for the O-lineman, whoever they choose.

by bronco112 on Apr 3, 2010 6:44 PM MDT reply actions

Interesting take, nice read Kdo

Give me impact at center, copmetence at guard and an upgrade at linebacker - sprinkle in strides from having the same system for two years in a row - and I'll show you a contender!

by Alex on Apr 3, 2010 8:28 PM MDT reply actions