Looking back on last off-season for guidance on this one, I stumbled upon the predictions that some had for the 2009 season. Reading some of these, it got me thinking, lets take a big look at what was said on how the Broncos would do last season. So I went back and dug up some of the predictions from some well known contributors to Mile High Report as well as some well known sites around the internet. Let me tell you, some of the big names around MHR sure played it safe, and either made it hard to find their predictions, or just didn't make one. If you want to post your predictions for last season, make sure to include a link. Some were right, some were wrong, here are a few:
A few well known MHR members:
Tim Lynch: 7-9
Steve Nichols: 8.5-7.5
BShrout: 7-9 to 9-7
Average: 9-7 (rounded)
The kool-aid drinkers (too many links) 13-3
Football Outsiders Almanac: 4.9-11.1
- This is a statistics and probability site that runs simulations. This simulation was ran 10,000 times.
NFL Fanhouse: 4-12
NFL.com Average for columnists: 6-10
- This was the average of 5 columnists, here are their exact predictions
- 5-11, 6-10 three times, 7-9
- Putting us anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the AFC West
Mike and Mike: 4-12 and 7-9
- Mike Greeny (4-12) and Mike Golic (7-9) are radio hosts for ESPN
Bet Firms: 6-10
- A betting and odds site
Bleacher Report: 9-7
Average: 6-10 (rounded)
Looking back, I would say we did about as well as most thought we were going to do, but since no one predicted a 6-0 start, most people started changing their predictions and our hype grew. Due to that, when the Broncos ended at 8-8, it was harder on us than if we had won every other game throughout the season. Darn our high false expectations. But my purpose isn't to point out who was wrong or right, but feel free to poke fun at some of these predictions if you want, but to see what would be a pleasing record to the masses. While many call for 13-3, I would love that by the way, it is a hard record to rationalize. If we hadn't started 6-0, I think we would be happy to have achieved the same as last season even with all the changes that happened. So looking ahead, I made an early prediction for us to reach 10-6. This included the schedule, and the draft, but at this point, to me a successful season will be around 10-6. 9-7 would be an improvement, and people shouldn't be mad about the first winning record in 3 years. I would also say making the playoffs would be great, but in the AFC, sometimes even 10-6 doesn't cut it, so missing it is acceptable. In a poll I took when I made my prediction, 97% said 10-6 would be an acceptable record.
McDaniels must be wondering "What do I have to do to please these people?"
So I want to hear what you think, now this isn't your dream prediction, but what you would be happy with, what you would consider a good season, or what would be considered a failure. Also if you feel like bashing some of those predictors above, that's always fun too.