DraftTek Simulation - Trade Back & No Trade Back


After Emmitt brought up the idea a few days ago and after I saw Colinski's simulation this morning, I decided to try a few myself. DraftTek is the website. The basic idea is to adjust positional rankings for our team and let the simulator tell us which prospects we end up with. I simulated three mocks with brief explanations and notes, then at the end I quickly detail my rankings and summarize.

Simulation One (draft picks as is):

Round      Pick        Selection                     Psn          School                     Reach/Value

1              11           Maurkice Pouncey      OC          Florida                     -19          Reach

2              45           Vladimir Ducasse       OT           Massachusetts       -8            Reach

3              80           Toby Gerhart              RBF          Stanford                 +16          Value

*4           114         Dennis Pitta                 TE           BYU                        +10          Value

6              183         Blair White                 WRF        Michigan State       +16          Value

7              220         Chris Hawkins             CB          LSU                          -8            Reach

*Jamar Chaney was available in the fourth round and is probably a more attractive pick there than the TE.  Another option would be to take Donald Butler instead of Gerhart in the third.  

Simulation Two - Moving down in the draft (Two Options, same outcome):

Trade Proposal One:

Denver trades Pittsburg first round picks – Broncos’ 11 and 114 for Steelers’ 18 and 52. This deal represents great value for the Giants as FMV would cost them an additional 5th rounder. We took less value since we initiated the deal and since we wanted so badly to move down.

Trade Proposal Two:

Denver trades New England first round picks – Broncos’ 11 and 114 for Patriots’ 22 and 53. Without adding our 4th round pick (114 overall) the trade would work out to be exactly market value (according to the standard trade value chart). But in this case, we’re adding the 4th round selection (114) to get the deal done.

Round      Pick        Selection                         Psn          School                     Reach/Value

1              18/22     Maurkice Pouncey           OC          Florida                    -8            Reach

2              45           Vladimir Ducasse            OT          Massachusetts      -8            Reach

*2            52/53     Jonathan Dwyer               RBF        Georgia Tech         +4           Value

3              80           Donald Butler                  ILB          Washington           -6            Reach

6              183         Walter Thurmond            CB           Oregon                 +15         Value

7              220         Arthur Moats                   OLB34     James Madison    +22         Value

*Demaryius Thomas was available at the 52/53 overall pick and could be taken in place of Dwyer depending on your personal outlook on the Brandon Marshall situation. Toby Gerhart was also available and could be taken instead of Dwyer. Additionally, regardless of Brandon Marshall, if we end up with a 4th round pick for Tony Scheffler, we would probably want to take a running back with that 4th rounder and take Demaryius Thomas in the 2nd.

Note that in both of the above trade scenarios, I gave extra value comparable to a 4th round pick. You can make up your own mind as to whether you would offer less, but the more we offer, the more sure we are to land a trading partner. One simplified way to look at  the differences between the two mocks is that trading back in the 1st round essentially bought us Donald Butler instead of Chaney, gave us the option to Dwyer instead of Gerhart, and allows us to pay Pouncey less money. Another way to look at is that in mock #1, we could have taken Donald Butler and Dennis Pitta, where in mock #2 we would get Butler and Dwyer.

Jump in and share any thoughts you might have..

Formula Notes:

I didn't change any positional values for teams other than Denver. I didn't change the default "big board" in any way. I did, however, lockout four players that came up on initial results (ILB's due to size and an OT due to his height - too tall to moonlight at guard).

My Adjusted Positional Values (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 - lowest number = highest need) (Same values used for each simulated mock):

QB     RBF        RBC        WRF       WRP      WRS       OT          OG         TE           OC         FB

9         3           5             5             4            5            2            4             5             2            9

DT43      DT34      DE43      DE34      OLB43   OLB34   ILB     SS           FS           CB          KR

9            6             9             6             9           5           3         6             6            5            9


This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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