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Orton vs The 4th QTR Part II: Cutler Comparison

Orton vs The 4th QTR Part II: Cutler Comparison

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via www.unlockedsports.com

 

 

 

 My previous article only had shown a few statistics on Kyle Orton in the production of a quarterback in the fourth quarter .  I do realize that Kyle Orton can make big plays, and can keep drives going.  So in part 2 we’ll compare him to another QB that was average to below average as a first benchmark.

 

 Also, I have added some criteria such as 4th down conversions, Big Plays, and Blowouts.  I thought this would be interesting to see how Orton fared on fourth downs.   I wanted to see what big play ability he had in the final 15 minutes.  The blowout category I think is important because that shows that the offense was doing well enough that it didn’t have to rely on its QB in the 4th quarter.  Also in a blowout the QB doesn’t usually have to convert third downs or make big plays.  So of course the first QB I wanted to compare to Orton was Cutler.  Both QBs that switched systems, and had surprisingly similar numbers.  Though their numbers suggest they are the same average QB, they get there in different ways.

 

*I updated Orton’s numbers, and had missed a TD as well as I had to take away a few third down attempts due to penalties.

Cutler

Orton

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

14 Games

 

13 Games

 

QB Att

49

QB Att

46

QB conv

18

QB conv

17

pct

37%

pct

37%

 

 

 

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

9 games >30%

 

8 games >30%

 

QB Att

33

QB Att

28

QB conv

19

QB conv

15

pct

58%

pct

54%

 

 

 

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

5 Games <30%

 

5 Games <30%

 

QB Att

15

QB Att

18

QB conv

0

QB conv

2

pct

0%

pct

11%

4th Down Conv

4th Down Conv

QB Att

5

QB Att

5

QB conv

1

QB conv

4

pct

20%

pct

80%

TD

10

TD

6

INT

9

INT

5

3rd and longs

29

3rd and longs

26

3rd and shorts

20

3rd and shorts

20

Big Plays 20yd+

12

Big Plays 20yd+

14

Blowouts

2

Blowouts

3

Negative plays

10

Negative plays

13

3 & outs

11

3 & outs

15

Third and Long = 3rd-6 or longer

Third and Short = 3rd-5 or shorter

Negative Plays = sack, fumble, neg yard pass

Blowouts = up by 17 or more

 

 

 

Q4 Third Down Conversions

In looking through each game that both QBs had you realize that Orton both QB’s are eerily similar in their 3rd down production.  They had eight and nine games where their third down conversion rate was above 30%.  The both had exactly five games where their conversion rates were below 30%.  In those games both QBs were horrendous in the 4th quarter of all of those games except Orton in the Dallas game.  He wasn’t great in the fourth quarter, but he did make two key plays that a QB needs to make to win.  Cutler had a streak of six games that may have been the worst in the NFL as far as fourth quarters go.  He Only converted 2 of 20 third downs, had 0 TDs, and 5 INTs.  He also was averaging almost two three and outs per fourth quarter.  Kyle had a couple of bad streaks similar to this, but it was broken up more.  He had Bal, Pit, and SD, but then was able to stop the slide with decent fourth quarters against the Giants, Chiefs, and Colts.  Then Orton continued the slide for the next two weeks before he had his Jay cutler game against KC.

 

Both QBs had five games that they played poorly in and likely cost their teams wins.  Of course supporting cast can be blamed for some of it.  Clearly though Cutler and Orton were overwhelmed in many of those games and their ability to keep drives going was diminished from what they are capable of.  When Cutler was bad he was really bad.  Orton was almost as bad, but not quite.  So for you Orton fans out there I guess this is something to hang your hat on.  Orton wasn’t the worst QB in the league during his dry streaks in Q4 third down conversions.

 

Q4 TD to INT Ratio

This is probably the largest difference and most telling statistic of the two signal callers.   Both QB’s are average when you look at the averages.  However, Orton does not waiver to both ends of the spectrum as much as Cutler does.  Orton isn’t going to overwhelm a defense, but he isn’t going completely shoot himself in the foot on a regular basis either.  What Orton lacks is spectacular playmaking ability in the departments of mobility, and wicked 30 yard throws that no one should try to attempt.  Cutler on the other had has that playmaking ability.  Of course he also is able to make a completely stupid play that will drive you crazy.  Orton would not dream of attempting these triple and quadruple coverage throws.  It is a risk to reward playing style and ability that really separate the two QBs.  It directly reflects in their TD to INT ratios.   On a scale of 1 to 10 in rewards and risk, Cutler is a 10 in reward, and a 9 in risk.  His touchdowns were 10 in the fourth quarter and his interceptions were 9.  How about that?!  Orton on the other had is a 6 reward guy, but only a 4 or 5 risk.  I know I am matching the numbers here, but I don’t think I am that far off.  Cutler as on the ends of the spectrum and Orton is in the middle.  (Sneak Preview: Brees and Manning are more like 10 Reward, and 4 Risk.)  I am not sure who is better here because I want the 10 TDs, but I also want the 5 INTs.  If only there were a way to mold body and mind. Hmmmmmmm? (Tebow was actually built in McDaniels’ lab in his basement. Body of an Olympian, Mind of a Genius, Heart of Lion/Mother Theresa)

Cutler

TD

10

INT

9

 

Orton

TD

6

INT

5

 

 

Other Telling Statistics

Blowouts - Both the Broncos and Bears blew out the Cleveland Browns. Who hasn’t? The Broncos got to play KC and Oakland, and the Bears got to play Detroit.  I am not really putting a lot of stock in any of these "blowout" games because even a blind dog finds a bone.  Jemarcus Russell always seems to find two, weird.

Third and Longs/Shorts -  These stats are almost the same as well.  Both QBs seem to find themselves in tough third down situations, but also have failed to convert easy 3-3s.  I think Cutler’s issue in this is he was not on the same page as his WRs or made a throw into tight coverage.  Orton on the other hand seemed to lack the ability to run for the first down and willing to take the sack.  No Brandon Marshall vs. only Brandon Marshall.  Orton had an advantage in the chemistry department in this one.  Both Offensive lines were weak at the end of the season.  Orton had another advantage here until Week 8 at Baltimore when Harris got hurt.  Each had 20 third and shorts.  I may want to look into each third and short.

Big Plays and Negative Plays - To start off I was actually surprised at how many big plays Orton was a part of.  He had more than Cutler.  Though we need to take this with a grain of salt as one had an All Pro receiver and the other didn’t.  We all know what big play capability Cutler had with Marshall.  Orton also took more sacks.  Niether QB is great in the negative play department.  One takes sacks, the other throws INTs instead.  Both fumble.

 

3rd and longs

29

3rd and longs

26

3rd and shorts

20

3rd and shorts

20

Big Plays 20yd+

12

Big Plays 20yd+

14

Blowouts

2

Blowouts

3

Negative plays

10

Negative plays

13

3 & outs

11

3 & outs

15

 

Conclusions

Really I believe this helps in getting perspective.  After the part one I realized that it was too easy to focus on Orton as an island.  I think that this comparison gives a nice benchmark to grade how well Orton does in the 4Q, and shows more of his strengths and weaknesses in perspective.  Also, it shows how important it is to have talent to go along with a good supporting cast.  In Denver Cutler was  a Pro Bowl quarterback who throw for over 4,000 yards.  In Chicago his weaknesses were exposed.  Orton had his strengths emphasized and weaknesses minimized.   With that said I don’t really see Denver getting that much more out of Orton than they already have.  Denver could get better in the run game and therefore have a more productive offense overall, but I still see Orton at his limits.  Shy of a number one defense like Mark Sanchez had or Joe Flacco had, I don’t see Denver going beyond 9-7 with a Orton at the helm.  I have come to the conclusoin that with a defense and running game like those teams have he could go far into the playoffs.  So just to make sure I will be continuing this exercise by comparing him to a few more QBs. 

 

Side note: I don't necesarrily accept average at the QB position as many of Bronco Nation.  However, we have seen in this segment that there are worse things out there than Kyle Orton in this offense.

 

Up next….Part 3: Elway (was going to do average QBs, but what is the fun in that?)  Part 4: Manning, Brees, Favre (Best in the 4th quarter)

 

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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