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Orton vs. the 4Q Part 4: The Elite- Manning, Brees, and Favre Comparison

 

Orton vs. the 4Q Part 4: The Elite- Manning, Brees, and Favre

Peyton-manning-mustache-sprint_medium

via www.obsessedwithsports.com

 

Part 3: QBs with top D and Run Games Sanchez, Palmer, Flacco

Part 2: Cutler Comparison

Part 1: Orton vs 4th Qtr

The elite QBs in the league, Manning and Brees, showed how good they were in the fourth quarter as well as  the first three quarters of games.  These two quarterbacks rightfully faced each other in the Super Bowl, and provided the bar at which all other QBs are measured.  So we might as well take a look at how Kyle Orton stacks up to toher QBs in the fourth quarter.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees provided a stat line that actually got me excited (in a nice way) as went through each fourth quarter.  Every drive I looked at would make me sit in awe thinking "Wow this guy is money".  I am using this as a comparison because I believe that if Denver wants to get to the Super bowl someday they will need to have a top quarterback.  I did provide Brett Favre as a third comparison, but after looking at every fourth quarter he played in it was obvious he was not among the best QBs in the NFL at the end of games.  Certainly he did not belong in the same class as Manning and Brees, but I give my reasons on why I kept him later.  He did have some better numbers than Orton, but truly he was more of a big play guy than a consistent quarterback.  This was especially the case on third downs where his conversion rates were near exact of Orton’s conversion rates.  Enough about Favre let’s look at some stats after the break.

 

4th Quarter Statistic Comparison of Manning, Brees, and Orton

 

Third Down Conversions and other statistics

 

Manning

Brees

Orton

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

13 Games

 

14 Games

 

13 Games

 

QB Att

32

QB Att

34

QB Att

46

QB conv

21

QB conv

18

QB conv

17

pct

66%

pct

53%

pct

37%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

12 games >30%

 

11 games >30%

 

8 games >30%

 

QB Att

31

QB Att

28

QB Att

28

QB conv

21

QB conv

18

QB conv

15

pct

68%

pct

64%

pct

54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

1 Games <30%

 

3 Games <30%

 

5 Games <30%

 

QB Att

1

QB Att

6

QB Att

18

QB conv

0

QB conv

0

QB conv

2

pct

0%

pct

0%

pct

11%

4th Down Conv

4th Down Conv

4th Down Conv

QB Att

1

QB Att

2

QB Att

5

QB conv

1

QB conv

1

QB conv

4

pct

100%

pct

50%

pct

80%

TD

7

TD

7

TD

6

INT

1

INT

0

INT

5

3rd and longs

14

3rd and longs

17

3rd and longs

26

3rd and shorts

18

3rd and shorts

17

3rd and shorts

20

Big Plays 20yd+

11

Big Plays 20yd+

12

Big Plays 20yd+

14

Blowouts

4

Blowouts

7

Blowouts

2

Negative plays

3

Negative plays

3

Negative plays

13

3 & outs

4

3 & outs

4

3 & outs

15

 

 

  Peyton-manning_medium

via musico8.files.wordpress.com

Peyton Manning

Peyton only had one game where he was under 30% of his third down conversion.  In all other games he was at almost 70% conversion rate.  Also I noticed that he only had to complete 1-3 conversions per fourth quarter.  This was because he often threw on second down for a first.  He had about the same amount of big plays as the other quarterbacks, but he was by far the most consistent in moving the chains and extending drives.  Even Brees wasn’t as consistent for doing this on a game by game basis. 

 

  Drew-brees1_medium

via americansportsblog.files.wordpress.com

Drew Brees

Brees was maybe not as consistent as Manning, but he wasn’t far off.  The two QBs were very close in their fourth quarter numbers.  The one thing that stands out is that Brees never threw an interception in the fourth.  Both QBs only had 3 negative plays and only four 3 & outs.  Brees did have a few bad games, but really the majority of the time when the Saints relied on him he produced and got the first down or made the play.

 

 

4th Quarter Statistic Comparison of Favre and Orton

 

Third Down Conversions and other statistics

 

Favre

Orton

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

14 Games

 

13 Games

 

QB Att

35

QB Att

46

QB conv

14

QB conv

17

pct

40%

pct

37%

 

 

 

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

8 games >30%

 

8 games >30%

 

QB Att

24

QB Att

28

QB conv

13

QB conv

15

pct

54%

pct

54%

 

 

 

 

3rd Down Conv

 

3rd Down Conv

 

 6 Games <30%

 

5 Games <30%

 

QB Att

11

QB Att

18

QB conv

1

QB conv

2

pct

9%

pct

11%

4th Down Conv

4th Down Conv

QB Att

2

QB Att

5

QB conv

2

QB conv

4

pct

100%

pct

80%

TD

8

TD

6

INT

2

INT

5

3rd and longs

19

3rd and longs

26

3rd and shorts

16

3rd and shorts

20

Big Plays 20yd+

11

Big Plays 20yd+

14

Blowouts

5

Blowouts

2

Negative plays

10

Negative plays

13

3 & outs

4

3 & outs

15

 

Brett-favre-vikings-debut-20090821_zaf_e47_624_medium

via mlom.files.wordpress.com

Brett Favre

In part one of this series someone commented about the top QB ratings for teams in the NFL.  They had Minnesota listed as number one.  When I went through each game I didn’t see a very efficient QB.  I think Favre’s TD/INT ratio was the main reason his QB Rating was so high.  Again I see the flaw in the QB rating system, and how it doesn’t take into account many things such as fumbles, third down conversions, and big plays.

The reality is that Favre is great in people’s memories.  I was hesitant to put Favre here after my research, but I know how everyone perceives him.  Favre really only makes a big play at the end of the game one or two times in the season.  Everyone remembers those two last minute heaves into the end zone, and think that Brett must be a great fourth quarter QB.  Take away those two big plays, and really Favre kind of sucks.  In several games that I went through couldn’t convert a third down to save his life.  He also committed a fair amount of mistakes.  Fumbles, sacks, and interceptions were a part of his game at critical parts of a drive.  He blew games at the end, but his team had already won the game and the team could just run out the clock and play great defense.  Really the Vikings needed Favre for a power punch every now and then in order to become a contender.  The running game and defense did the rest.  Favre had a much better TD INT ratio than Orton of 8/2.  This would be similar to Brees and Manning.  Other than the big play and

 

Orton vs. the Elite

 Orton is decisively average in this comparison.  He does not make the big play to win the game like Favre, and he is not at the level of consistency like Manning or Brees.  He makes mistakes, but doesn’t have the play making ability to overcome them like Favre.  Another difference is that Orton is on a team that doesn’t currently have a great running game to keep chains moving.  The three QBs on this list only had to convert between 32 – 35 third downs.  Orton attempted nearly 50 conversions.  In the fourth quarter having to convert one or two more third downs makes a huge difference.  This means that your offense is not consistently getting past the first down marker on running downs.  So the performance of Kyle and the offense on first and second are hurting him on third downs.  If you look at the drives of Manning and Brees they were consistently throwing for first downs.  They did not rely on their running games as much because they didn’t have too.  Favre had Adrian Peterson to break tackles and get long gains.  Quarterbacks are not separate from their running games, but the performance of the QB can be better in regards to Orton.  Denver definitely lost games because they had Orton and not one of these QBs behind center.  Not every team can have one of these guys, but at the same time not every team can be a contender. 

 

 

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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