FanPost

Is Perfection an Illusion? Yes. Especially in the Draft.


    Lately I’ve been hearing  a lot about our drafts from folks on both sides of the aisle.  On the one hand we have our glass half-full group talking up our picks and posting tons of info on the potential these players hold, and on the other we have the half-empty folks talking about the disaster that McX is when it comes to draft day especially in the value of picks department.  Specifically we seem to be focusing on Alphonso Smith, Richard Quinn and of course Tim Tebow.  We are generally focusing on whether we gave up too much for them or if we reached for them before it was necessary. 

    I’m not going to get into that aspect of the argument, instead I wanted to take a look at some of the past drafts and see how the league does when it comes to drafting players.  I was really curious to see if teams were making the right pick on draft day.

So I looked at a few things but nothing crazy.  I only have so much time in the day and I do occasionally like to go outside.  What I looked at were the first four rounds of the 2005, 2006, and 2007 drafts.  Mainly I just wanted to see how many players drafted were still with the team that drafted them.  I looked at these years because I wanted to see a year in which the draftees had hit free agency( 2005), a year in which they hadn’t been able to due to the CBA issues(2006) and a draft recent enough that we might not know if the kids were actually  going to make it in the NFL(2007).
    
    So here we go, let’s do this.


 2005                              1st Round        2nd Round    3rd Round    4th Round
Players still w/ team              19                   13                  11                 11
Released or traded               11                    14                  18                13   
Out of the NFL                       2                     5                     8                 11



There were 37 players taken in the 3rd Round and 35 taken in the 4th Round

Percentage of players still with original team that drafted them:

1st round- 59.4%, 2nd round-40.62%, 3rd round-29.7%, 4th round-31.4%




2006                                       1st Round    2nd Round    3rd Round    4th Round
Players still w/ team                     26                 23                 16                 20
Released or traded                       6                   8                  11                  11
Out of the NFL                              0                   1                   6                    5


There were 33 players selected in the 3rd Round and 36 in the 4th Round.

Percentage of players still with the original team that drafted them:

1st round- 81.25 %,  2nd round-71.9%,  3rd round- 48.5%,  4th round- 55.6%


And finally.....

2007                                              1st Round        2nd Round    3rd Round    4th Round
Players still w/ team                            28                     21                  20                25
Released or traded                              3                       9                   13                11
Out of the NFL                                     1                       2                    2                  2


There were 35 players selected in the 3rd Round and 38 picks in the 4th Round.

Percentage of players still with the original team that drafted them:

1st round-87.5%, 2nd round-65.6%, 3rd round-57.1%, 4th round- 65.8%


    I also took a look at the Broncos drafts from these three years and this is what I found out:


Year               # of selections    Still w/ Team    Still in the NFL    Still throwing to wrong team
2005                        6                        0                      3                                     0
2006                        7                        2                      6                                     1
2007                        4                        3                      1                                     0



    So a look at the numbers can be pretty revealing. 

    -With free agency available to the 2005 draft class an average of 50% of the players drafted in the first four rounds were still with the teams that drafted them.  

    -With the 2006 class that is trapped with the uncertainty of the new CBA holding them to restricted free-agency an average of 62% are still with the team that drafted them.

    -The 2007 draft class which we should have an idea of their talent levels after three years in the league, an average of 68.5% are still with the team that drafted them.

    The Broncos in that time frame have had mixed results with 2006 being by far the best year of drafting.  The 2007 numbers I think are a bit misleading in that Jarvis Moss may not be on the team at the end of camp and it is hard to say if Tampa Bay will get anything out of Tim Crowder.

    So what am I getting at here?  Most of these guys just don't work out and as time goes on the numbers will only get worse when you attribute injuries and age.  Only time will tell if the plan that McX are going by is going to work but it may be a little early to judge it and even if we do think that errors have been made it's just the nature of the draft.  We can all ramble on about how poorly we think the Broncos may have drafted in the last few years but when you look at the big picture there are not a lot of teams that seem to hit on the right guys all the time anyways.  Of course different teams have different needs and different luxuries(as in veterans that can allow for proper grooming of the rookies), but in the end it’s really just a toss of the coin as to who is going to pan out and who is going to flame out.

Thanks for taking the time and enjoy your day.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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