2010 Denver Broncos Positional Preview - Running Backs
by Steve Nichols on Jul 10, 2010 2:00 PM MDT
in 2010 Denver Broncos Season Preview
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Much attention has been focused on the QB position during Denver's off-season. If not the QB position, many folks are inclined to study the many changes made at the defensive line. However, Denver's biggest surprise may come at the RB position. Why? There is more beef on the offensive line, a former first round RB entering his first year as a veteran, and a QB more capable of distracting teams with the passing game after a year's experience in the Denver system. If the Denver run game can make a mark on the League this year, everything else can fall more easily into place.
I expect Denver will use a committee approach to the RB position, using two backs to carry the ball (with one of those backs getting the majority of carries) in each game. I also expect Denver to use single back sets for virtually all of their offensive formations. Further, Denver will expect their backs to play in some screen plays. In such a scenario, those backs will need to be capable of catching the ball or blocking for whomever takes the pass. However, I expect the majority of screen passes to go to receivers, not to backs and TEs.
Further, the transition away from the zone block system is completed this year. This is not to say that there won't be occasional zone blocks (every team uses them). But the zone block will not be dominant as in years past, or even divided as it was in 2009. There are no true 1-cut specialists on the roster this year. In the past, with the help of the OL and RB coaches, Denver could pick-up specialists from deep in the draft and ensure a quality runner. Now the team will have success, but along very different lines. On the OL, "beef" is the theme for the interior OL, and the Tackles will depend on their excellent pass blocking skills in a system that should see a final departure from the bootleg driven west coast offense of years past.
But the transition at RB is complete, and the coach has the player types he wants throughout the RB roster.
Let's take a look at each Denver running back, and see how he plugs into the Denver system and where he may end up on the depth chart.
Knowshon Moreno
Denver Broncos #27 - Running Back
Born: 1987/07/16 Age: 22
Height: 5-11 Weight: 210
P.O.B. Belford, NJ
Seasons: 1
Drafted by: the Denver Broncos in 2009 (1st round)
Moreno is likely to be the primary back in a RB by committee approach. He was taken 12th in the draft last year, and in his first year with the team showed raw talent with mixed results. Given what we've seen from Knowshon, this could be his breakout year.
Numbers
First, let's credit Knowshon with the simple task of holding onto the ball; he only fumbled the ball four times in 2009. And while he didn't go over 100 yards in any game, he was splitting many carries. His average was a good, but not great, 3.8 yards per carry.
Observations
Knowshon is a shifty runner. He isn't going to be the fastest runner on the field, but his footwork is good and his acceleration is very good. Knowshon has a lot of agility, which often doesn't convert into yards in a rookie season, but comes into play with experience. This agility makes Knowshon a prime candidate for the screen game.
Denver used Knowshon rarely in screens or other passes (about twice per game) in 2009, with the exception of the won NE game, where Knowshon caught four passes for an average of 9 yards per (including a nice 27 yard reception). However, in the last four games (all losers), Knowshon picked up his receptions, gaining three receptions in each game.
Knowshon's agility and bursts of speed are more valuable in the inside game, and that's where Denver needs him as a distraction to compliment the frequent passes to the sides of the field. Knowshon will need to improve on his ability to shed at least one tackle on each touch of the ball in order to make the running game formidable.
What this young player does in his second year will go far in determining if Denver made a good call with his draft pick in 2009.
Correll Buckhalter
Denver Broncos #28 Running Back
Born: 1978/10/06 Age: 31
Height: 6-0 Weight: 223
P.O.B. Collins, MS
Seasons: 6
Drafted by: the Philadelphia Eagles in 2001 (4th round)
Correll came to the Broncos after several years with the Eagles. He is an older RB, but solid (outperforming rookie Knowshon Moreno throughout the 2009 season). He is not only adept in the running game, but a threat in the passing game as well. His skills buy time for Knowshon to develop further.
Numbers
Correll is a stud #2 RB for the running back duo in Denver. In 2009 he averaged a very impressive 5.4 YPC with only 3 fumbles. He also had 31 receptions. He will be 32 years old this season.
Observations
Correll can relieve Knowshon without the team missing a beat. It seems that Correll is at his best when he touches the ball only a few times per game. For example, when he touched the ball 20 times in a winning effort against the Giants, he only averaged 2.6 YPC. But against Cleveland, KC, and Philly he had averages of 8.4, 9.5, and 8.4 with carries of 9, 12, and 5 touches.
In the 14 games he played in, Correll caught 31 passes.
To be an effective back for Denver, Correll only needs to present a credible threat when Knowshon is off the field. So far, Correll has kept up his end of the bargain. Teams must account for Correll running the ball as well as receiving, and the double threat makes defenses guess wrong much of the time. Defenses must either account for the center of the field (Correll's run threat) or the edges (where Correll or any of the receivers can lurk).
J.J. Arrington
Denver Broncos #26 Running Back
Born: 1983/01/23 Age: 27
Height: 5-9 Weight: 212
P.O.B. Rocky Mount, NC
Season: 4
Drafted by: the Arizona Cardinals in 2005 (2nd round)
Arrington is a RB who specializes as a kick returner or receiving RB. As a pro, he was considered a #2 or #3 RB for the Cardinals, and failed his initial physical when trying to move to the Broncos. Denver sees something in him, and invited him to try again this year. If he can stay healthy, Arrington can be threat to any team and on third down in particular.
Numbers
J.J. had no numbers for 2009. In his last year of play ('08), J.J. had an excellent YPC of 6.0, and a receiving average of 8.8 over 29 receptions.
Observations
Arrington is a balanced threat up the middle, as well as to the outside on sceens. His health is the major factor to consider. Like Buckhalter, I'd like to see Arrington used sparingly. I would expect Arrington to compete with Buckhalter for the #2 spot, but to be used in a #3 spot at the end of the position battle. He may be brought in as a 3rd down specialist, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him get looks for returns (or at back-up for returns at the very least).
Lance Ball
(photo courtesy of NFL.Fanhouse.Com)
Denver Broncos #35 Running Back
Born: 1985/06/19 Age: 25
Height: 5-9 Weight: 220
P.O.B. Teaneck, N.J.
Seasons: 1
In 2008, Lance went to the Rams as an UFA. After a quick release, he went to the Colts. There, he was promoted off the practice squad and played. The Colts liked what they saw, and re-signed him. However, the Titans managed to grab him for their own practice squad before his current acquisition by the Broncos.
Numbers
In his brief appearance with the Colts, he managed a 6.4 YPC (including a 23 yard run) in 13 carries. He had 1 fumble, and 1 catch for 5 yards.
Observations
I project that Lance will make the cut. He will be behind two savvy veterans and a second year player that was a first round pick, so his playing time will likely be limited, if existent at all. Unlike previous years (where Denver RBs come out of nowhere), this prospect is on the roster to be a back-up.
The Rest
Considered a player that can play as a FB or a LB, Spencer has value to a team that values flexibility. Denver doesn't run a true FB position, so Spencer's run block skills could be better used at TE. However, Denver's TEs are more likely to fill roles as pass blockers than as run blockers or even receivers. In a pinch, Larsen could be a RB / RB-receiver, but his value to the team is probably more on the defensive side of the ball.
I expect Larsen to back-up the RILB position, and to stay away from the offensive side of the ball. He is only listed here because he could play at RB in an extreme emergency (multiple injuries to RBs in a single game).
Perhaps the greatest RB in NC football history, he has a following at Milehighreport .com amongst fans with respect for his tenacity. I'm afraid his injury history may relegate him to the practice squad or away from the team.
From DenverBroncos.com -
Hall, who entered the NFL with Buffalo as a college free agent in 2008, is a second-year player who spent the majority of his two seasons on the Bills' practice squad working under then running backs coach and current Broncos running backs coach Eric Studesville. He was signed to the Bills' active roster and dressed but did not play in Buffalo's 2008 season finale against New England.
Hall played both running back and quarterback in college at the University of Mississippi after spending time at Northeast Community College, Troy University and Wake Forest.
If I had to pick a dark horse prospect to crack the top four, it would be Hall. Apparently, Coach Studesville sees something in Hall from practice squad training.
Like Arrington, Smith is a 3rd down specialist if looked at in the Broncos context. However, I think that Arrington is a lock for the position. With Ball and Hall gunning for the #4 spot as well rounded back-ups, I don't think Smith makes the team.
Summary
Moreno is the future of the franchise if he takes the next step from rookie to second year player. His focus this year will be on short yardage situations. Buckhalter is a solid #2 in a run by committee approach. I project Arrington as the 3rd down specialist, and Lance Ball as the #4 (in a true back-up role).
The competition to watch is between Lance Ball (experience, good but brief numbers) against Bruce Hall (ties to current RB's coach, desired by several teams for practice squad status). Secondarily, the next competition to watch is between Arrington and Smith. Smith is not going into camp to compete against every RB, but instead to unseat Arrington for the 3rd down specialist spot. In this competition, I give the edge to Arrington because of career numbers and receiving hands.
Going into the season, the running backs corp can range from ordinary to outstanding, based on the following four variables (in order)...
1) Will Moreno take the next step in his development?
2) Will the new players on the interior line prove to have the right stuff against experienced DLs?
3) Will the passing game be strong enough to keep defenses from focusing on the running game?
4) Will the OTs be healthy in time to perform their roles for the team?
Watch the competition in camp, and (without watching for wins and losses) watch for individual performances from the RBs for answers.
Go Broncos!
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Comments
Moreno
O line blocking for the run was an outright nightmare the last half of the season. Knowshon was hit behind the line so many times it became a first priority just to get back to zero yardage then, look for a hole. Basically, he got living crap knocked out of him and yet he still managed to turn most carries into at least some positive yardage. With these considerations I was EXTREMELY pleased with the job he did. Give this man a chance to get to the hole first and a shot at the second level and he will be a 1000 yarder without a doubt. The O line is the key and THE question mark on the team. As the O line goes so goes Moreno.
"Peace, a journey without distance to a place we have never left."
Good call!
Not to mention the sudden transition from an agile OL playing zone block to gap block scheme, in which the coaching might be an issue. (Is it better to transition slowly, or to go all in? McDaniels seemed to go long term, having the OL squad start on more gap blocking up front, but this didn’t help Moreno much.)
I think we are both in the same camp that Moreno surprises some critics this year.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 10, 2010 5:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Plus a slower start due to his holdout in signing
Moreno also got a bit of a late start and early knick up injury early in last season. With a full year of experience and a full year of off season and training camp conditioning and study that will add to his baseline performance.
But absolutely right, you can see that a lot of his poor runs or losses were not his fault at all as he was being abused as a pinata in the backfield as something in the offensive line had broken down or someone missed an assignment or was just flat beaten.
Should be interesting
I expect Moreno to get the majority of the carries. We always give Moreno a lot of space saying the O-Line was horrible but as Steve points out he didnt break 100 in ANY game. even when the line was playing well.
Moreno is one of the guys i expect to see the light click on this year for. He has been given a lot of breaks on MHR (myself as well) and he had better earn them this year!
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
Didn't Moreno have a 94 yard game or something?
Moreno was close, and the offensive line, I think was sub-par for most of the season.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
very few would have said that at 6-0
the thing is right now I will buy the bad o line argument. Until he falls on his face this year I am going to believe the poor o line theory.
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
by Jon Tollerud on Jul 10, 2010 5:48 PM MDT up reply actions
You know, there is something to this that I'm not seeing.
As I recall, we were ALL, and I mean ALL, on the train touting the Oline as one of the best in the NFL, and the best unit on the team hands down during the offseason last year. Clady was a monster (coming off a rookie season in which he gave up only 1/2 sack). Weigmann had gone about getting his new contract in the right way. Harris, Kuper, etc. were all solid. Hochstein we had questions about, but we still felt the Oline was beast.
Now the Oline is the scapegoat for the collapse. I don’t get it. We can’t have it both ways.
I guess there are a couple of ways to go on this:
1. The Oline was great in pass protection, but horrible when run blocking, which seems to have been addressed through the draft. We’ll see to what effect.
2. Harris is THE crucial component to our line, and Polumbus is no adequate backup. Harris went out, and the Oline play begins to suck.
3. Cutler’s ability to avoid the sack (even at the risk of putting up a big ol’ duck) contributed to the statistical success of the line in 2008. Orton is not as mobile, so the Oline, while not regressing, gave up more statistical sacks.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
The O line was a victim of injuries
The main reason for the drop off in Oline play was by far more due to injuries than it was poor play.
The loss of Harris was huge. Not only did Polumbus not pick up the slack, his lack of production put too much pressure on the guard and center to compensate. Add in that Kupper spent some time on the bench and Wegman just looked older and you have the reason for the change in the O line outlook from great to mediocre.
"My team's on the floor"
Gene Hackman - Hoosiers
I could be wrong.
My impression was that the injury at OT was only a factor near the end of the season. During the mid-season, it seemed to me that our OL couldn’t get a decent push from the OC and OGs. That’s just my own opinion though.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks!
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 12, 2010 12:45 PM MDT up reply actions
I think there is merit in that Alan
The Right Tackle (strong side) is usually a team’s best run blocker, while the LT is the better pass blocker. Harris’ injury did affect the run game IMO.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
I agree to a point Kaptain.
I think I our biggest problem was short yardage up the middle. Losing a RT is more of a run problem than a LT, but I don’t think stretches and sweeps were as much of a problem as the centralized runs.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 4:28 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah
Ryan’s injury probably wasn’t much of a factor (other than the unit’s cohesiveness) in any runs up the middle.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
In fairness to Moreno (and the OL)...
…Moreno was also sharing a lot of carries. As a true primary back, he would have had more yards.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 10, 2010 5:17 PM MDT up reply actions
That's a fair point
however in truth coach Adrian Peterson splits carries as well. he may get a lion’s share more but he still splits. If your back up RB breaks 100 carries then I am inclined to agree with you. If you carry the ball 300-400 times and you get 200+ of them (Moreno) you are definitely the main guy!
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
by Jon Tollerud on Jul 10, 2010 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions
But McD's MO is not to have a feature back...
And thats why I see Toney Baker making the squad and getting some action. He is a POWER back with good moves and pretty good hands. he has a different skill set from Ball and Hall, and that works in his favor.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
Agreed
From the film I saw of Baker last year, he is tremendous and there’s no way he doesn’t make the team. But then, I haven’t seen any film of Ball, Hall, or Smith.
It is of perhaps interest that our human genetic code is constructed by the exact same four nucleotides as every other form of life on the planet.
My Stroke Of Insight, by Jill Bolte Taylor, Ph.D.
I only pointed it out as one of the explanations...
…for why he didn’t break 100. Add in the OL play (whether one believes it was injuries or poor play), and the rookie Moreno had an uphill battle.
I agree that it would be nice to see a true power back on the team. It will be interesting to watch the battle play out.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Running Game.
I too think that the Broncos running game should take a step up in 2010 and I’m glad you highlighted it so well!
MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!
Larsen will have a roll
for his size 6’2 243lbs … this guy is a stud! McD has already stated that he will use more 2 back sets (this makes more sense considering our TE situation) Larsen is the man for the job!
I can’t wait to see how this group performs this year along with the offensive line. It should be an exciting year for both groups, and hopefully Moreno has a breakout year, and Correll repeats what he did last year.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
Great series
Continued thanks to Steve and the other contributors on this series! This has been one of my favorites and continues the growth of my Broncos IQ here at MHR. As others have said, it’s on Moreno and the O-Line to take that mutual step forward in the running game.
Getting so jacked up about the 2010 season… just pulled my second Gus Ferotte headbutt againstttss thhheee walll of the ooffseasnons…
Excellent post, Steve.
I was surprised that there was not a RB drafted this year. Maybe they felt that we had good players already on the roster – sort of like the DL last year.
I agree with you that this could be a big year for our RBs. I look for the OL to be much improved. Nothing is certain at all – but by mid-season the LG and OC should be performing pretty well. Also Orton’s familiarity – as well as the entire teams familiarity – with the offense should bode well not only for the RBs but for the entire offense as well.
I agree with your assessment on who will make the final cut.
BTW: like your new avatar. Thanks for your time and energy.
Also I forgot to thank you for your 2008 article “The Nickel Formations”. It came up in another discussion. I followed the link and it is now in my library. Thanks.
We did draft a running back.
His name is Tim Tebow.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
by HarvJNep2n on Jul 11, 2010 1:51 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Moreno
Four fumbles isnt good I dont know where you came up with that, but a 1000 yard rusher with four fumbles isnt a good year holding onto the ball. Ideally a elite back should average two fumbles per year
Moreno
missed 12 practices after an eight-day holdout. Yes, he could’ve played better and needs to protect the football better. But in all fairness to him, he showed up late, missing time in OTAs, and was also a rookie.
He also had an O-line that was transitioning to a new scheme more and more by the end of the year. And don’t forget the injuries to Harris and Hochstein, not to mention the sub-par performance of Hamilton, which is why he’s no longer on the team.
I’m not giving you Kool Aid, but you need to see both sides, not just the negative all the time.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
They came mostly as a batch from games 5-6-7
I think he went his final nine games without a fumble.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 11, 2010 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Dude...
…I certainly never, ever said that Moreno was an elite back. The guy (as others point out) was a rookie behind an OL in transition. I stand by calling those four fumbles acceptable in that context.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 1:18 PM MDT up reply actions
No you said he deserved credit for only fumbling 4 times
You never called his four fumbles acceptable, but whatever I do not wish to argue and appear ungrateful for the well written article. I just wanted to point out that losing one fumble every four games isnt good
I think that's a fair comment on your part.
I think it is fair to say that a fumble isn’t a good thing every four games (on average). In my own opinion, given the players we had trying to gap block (prototype zone blockers), and the runner being a rookie, I would give credit. Its also fair to say (as you do) that it isn’t a good thing. Again, it is all context.
And thanks for the kind words!
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 4:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Where do you get that?
Ideally you want your RB to fumble no more than ~1 to 2% of carries… so 4 fumbles in 200 carries, while on the high end, is certainly acceptable.
Also remember you’re talking about ridiculously small sample sizes here… +/- 1 fumbles is +/- 25%, so the statistical significance test of any of the fine distinctions you are making is basically nil…
The difference between 2 fumbles in 200+ carries and 4 fumbles in 200+ carries easily could be nothing but randomn chance/luck. Given the circumstances of some of Moreno’s fumbles (Ed Reed missile strike, and stretching for the goalline), I saw nothing that makes me think there is anything wrong with Moreno’s ballhandling. (Note: I can’t say the same about Buck or B-Marsh, both of whom fumbled while being much more loose with their form).
Complaining about Moreno’s ball handling makes me think you have absolutely no clue what realistic expectations should be for fumbles, because either through scouting or stats I see absolutely NOTHING that makes me think Moreno will have an above average fumble rate for his career.
numbers and 'the' assumption
Firstly, I believe that Larsen is nearly a lock at FB because of his value as a blocker and STs member, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him retain his role as a backup ILB and I advocated it not long ago. I think he’s primarily a STs star whose role on offense & defense is secondary to his role on STs. They needed a role that didn’t require too many assignments and FB fits the bill. The problem is that he doesn’t run, or at least he hasn’t so far, which raises the question of how many RBs (speaking of both RB & FB) we’ll carry. It’s a question that needs to be evaluated anyways but it’s even more salient if the core group of RBs (the actual runners or RBs) consists of only 3 RBs.
Last year’s RB corps contained 5 RBs (Moreno, Buckhalter, Jordan, Hillis(FB) and Larsen(FB), but we were only capable of carrying that many because we had an unbalanced roster, i.e., 26 offense/ 24 defense. It’s hard to see us going with less than that this year. The primary reason, but not the only one, is because of the wear and tear at RB which makes depth necessary at the position.
Assuming that we do carry 5 RBs, I can see the logic of carrying Ball as the 5th RB. Baker is obviously going to get heavy consideration but the criteria for the 5th back is more blue collar than long term potential. Running skill is less important than knowing the playbook and reliably performing the various RB duties such as blocking. Ball probably has an edge in those departments right now. And it’s not as if Ball would earn a long-term position, it’s simply a question of the player’s utility in this role. Demonstrating reliability, usefulness on STs and versatility would probably mean more to the coaches than an exciting running style.
There’s no guarantee that we’ll keep 5 RBs but it’s far more likely that we will if the prospective 5th back can justify his roster spot by doing more than running. It’s all about making the active list, which normally requires making a significant contribution on STs.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Jul 11, 2010 12:11 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Agree Larsen's value as a slash player ILB / FB / ST / HB
Not sure how good a blocker Larsen is at FB, he only played in two games at FB last season and was inactive for 5 games. Actually, we only used FB in two games last season, both Hillis & Larsen combine for only 54 yards rushing. [Hillis used at RB & FB]
I think competition at ILB and ST is were Larsen’s real talent and value lies.
I think we keep 4 RB’s with Larsen listed at FB to keep him on the roster who can play defense or offense and special teams, said another way versaltile.
If healthy I think Tony Baker wins the 4th spot with Ball making the practice squad.
oc60
"Adversity Is Your Asset" John Wooden
I would guess the opposite way...
Ball makes the roster, and if healthy, Baker makes PS.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 11, 2010 12:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah more than likely ur right but....
Versaltility is great but sooner or later Broncos need play-makers, players [Marshall] who can score with the rock. Jack of all trades isn’t necessarily always the best thing at skill positions we need TD’s. Our depth also needs a player who can step up and fill-in just in case Moreno should go down with injuries.
oc60
"Adversity Is Your Asset" John Wooden
My guess is Arrington is cut
(Or at least my hope) Allowing the Broncos to carry both Baker and Ball. Kick returning is a young mans game, and if Royal struggles early I do not see a problem with him returning kicks and punts full time. I mean he is really good at it, and Cox could always get the job if he’s not the nickel guy. Or even if Cox is the nickel guy he could do kicks and Royal could do punts. With that said if I was Baker or Ball I would be trying to decapitate someone on kickoff in pre season, that’s always a good way to standout
other alternatives - the active list logic
McDaniels has said that he wants to use 2-back more this season so I take him at his word. My conclusion that Larsen was the superior blocker is based on reports (although they’re loosely sourced), some observations, and the fact that he started over Hillis late in the season. Larsen was inactive because of a neck injury in the early season so part of his limited usage was due to that.
As far as Larsen’s carries, I don’t have any record of any but I usually frame it as “virtually none” to cover myself for the ambiguity in the record.
Here’s the main point — it’s just as possible to use Larsen as a ILB if you don’t try to use him too much. The FB/Power back slot then could be handled by someone else (and also Branson at TE). The main logic here is that Larsen is on all the STs and earns his spot that way. A part-time position is therefore somewhat ideal for balancing his assignment load. The only question is whether ILB is better suited as a part-time position — as well as serving team needs — or whether FB is. My guess was that FB was better suited as a part-time position.
My main concern was that the workload was too large if he’s used at both ILB and FB (on top of STs), so it’s better to let him focus on either FB or ILB instead of overusing him. Moreover, as a player who’s going to be active, it’s better to use him at a part-time position than at a backup, where he would either not play or play full-time in the event of injury.
Re: Baker V. Ball. It’s anyone’s guess at this point. I like Baker’s tape so I’m certainly not down on him as a runner. I do think that the role of reserve RB is better served by having someone who does all the little things, i.e., blocks, knows assignments, etc. My guess is that Ball’s abilities are more useful to the team even though he may not be the best runner. It’s a pragmatic decision rather than one that focuses on Baker’s possible upside as a runner. The one back position demands considerable versatility so the decision was made on that one-back/ reserve RB criterion. The criteria for the 4th RB also favors Ball because versatility is even more essential when there’s fewer RBs.
Finally — I’m not down on the idea of using Larsen for emergency depth at ILB, but the problem comes in when you try to play him. He’s not a 3rd down/passing game situational player so when do you use him, and how? And, regarding Baker, the same question could be asked — how do you use him? I like the idea of a Power Back on the roster for short yardage situations but the player would have to be active (or course), so can we use Baker on STs? I’d guess that the 4th/5th RB could be inactive unless there’s STs assignments that he fills. There will be times that he’s active but the Power Back option is mainly an addition to the roster (53 man squad rather than 45 man squad) and it’s hard to justify that reserve’s presence on the active squad unless he performs a task extremely well. My guess is that Moreno is still the first option for tough yards.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Jul 11, 2010 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff all!
If we are going to switch to more of a 2 back set as Coach says, then Larsen is certainly a keeper at FB on the roster. I like him as a run blocker. One can look at coach’s words and OTAs, or look at his past experience (both in Denver and NE) to determine what he’ll do. It isn’t that I don’t trust the coach (and I don’t think you are saying I wouldn’t), but it is enough of a change from the Patriot Way that I’m a little skeptical.
It is very possible that Coach wants more short yardage in the traditional sense (power instead of setting up with the edge passes). I didn’t write the story with that assumption, but I would be all for it. While the League moves slowly away from the FB in favor of 2 TE sets, I’m still old school and prefer the FB position.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 4:38 PM MDT up reply actions
I should add that Larsen is also very much worth keeping...
…because of his efforts on STs.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 11, 2010 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions
If we were really going to use more 2 back sets
I would have anticipated more than half a FB on the roster at this point.
"swiching" schemes
Here’s some of McDaniels’ comments and rationale:
Broncos coach Josh McDaniels said earlier this week his offense would use more two-back sets on running downs this year. He added he, like all NFL coaches, steal formations and plays each offseason from teams who have demonstrated success with them. For proof, look at the Wildcat. Miami isn’t the only team running it.
Anyway, no team uses the two-back set like the San Diego Chargers. It’s why fullback Lorenzo Neal kept going to the Pro Bowl every year. I don’t study these things but I talk to people who do and they say that if you look at it, the Chargers and defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints get remarkable passing production out of running sets. Two backs and one tight end; one back and two tight ends, that kind of thing.
… For the Broncos, adjustments to their short passing game is necessary following the departure of Brandon Marshall. The increase in two-back sets is a way to get H-back-like tight end Marquez Branson and ferocious lead blocker Spencer Larsen on the field. If it means a few less receiver screens — and we can only hope — and more running plays, so be it.
And here’s the rationale, as told to the Gazette by Bronco players (Moreno or Larsen): LINK
The Broncos intend to use more two-back sets this season, with Spencer Larsen as the lead blocker for Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.
This is a part of Denver’s new power-blocking scheme, which promotes more of a smash-mouth mentality. Coach Josh McDaniels says the spread offense will still be used often. Moreno will be the lead back no matter the formation.
Source: Colorado Springs Gazette
These reports appear completely trustworthy, and the rationale for why we would be using the 2-back makes sense. I believe the philosophy is to run at the defense in order to ease pressure on the OL. And I’m also intrigued by the Klis article’s (Broncos’ O stealing from Chargers) reference to learning from the success of other teams. The obvious implication in my mind was that Tebow might get some snaps in some short-yardage sets, but McDaniels at one point also threw water on the idea of three QBs being active. However, he said it boils down to how well we’re set on STs, so I don’t think keeping Tebow active is out of the question. And it would make a lot of fans happy, which isn’t a bad thing.
The comments in your second paragraph concerning the possibility that “coach wants more short yardage in the traditional sense” appear to be validated. It’s seems clear from past comments that McDaniels is going to show us more of his playbook this year. The assumption that many fans may have made when they read that was that we’d use finesse and trickery, but sophistication on offense doesn’t mean that we can’t be physical.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Jul 12, 2010 3:36 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Smash mouth also means wearing down the defense as well
Another advantage of a two back set with a FB (I like the sound of “ferocious lead blocker Spencer Larsen”) is that by attacking the DL eventually you put them back on their heals a bit and wear them down a bit. That gives a tad more time for your passing decision making and eventually makes it easier to run later in the game when they wear down.
Like anything though its all tradeoffs but its a good thing if the roster spot for the FB is also carrying a special teams stud.
Everything being said indicates a change to 2 backs.
All I’m saying is that I didn’t want to base my story on what is being said given the coach’s previous history of play calling. While I doubt that OTAs and the coach’s comments are pure trickery, it wouldn’t be the first time this has happened. When in doubt (and I have doubts both ways), I go by what has happened in the past over appearances.
However, I’m very much in favor of retaining the traditional FB in a two back set. I don’t like the sacrifice made in giving up short yardage by letting the FB position go. Some day (if trends continue), we may well see a dominant form of 3 TEs, but I don’t like the interim 2 TE sets run by some teams (though it IS hard for me to argue against the sucess of teams like Indy and NE).
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 12, 2010 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions
one more comment
I share your skepticism since I had the same reaction when I first read the article posted above.
What gave it credence was the context. As I recall, McDaniels was discussing last year’s playcalling and the lack of success in the running game + OL. He’s clearly talking about a departure from past tendencies but it’s only a change in degree. He points out that we’re not going to be changing our scheme but merely employing the 2-back more frequently instead.
My assumption has been that it’s a move to address our weakness in short-yardage and on the OL. It may not make perfect sense but I believe that it’s a move to help the transition to the power/ gap blocking as well easing the transition of Beadles and Walton. Perhaps it’s an attempt to give Beadles & Walton ‘reps’ in a vanilla scheme before adding complexity. And I admit that I like this idea since it caters to their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.
I think that Kosty expresses it better in his post directly above:
Another advantage of a two back set with a FB (I like the sound of "ferocious lead blocker Spencer Larsen") is that by attacking the DL eventually you put them back on their heals a bit and wear them down a bit. That gives a tad more time for your passing decision making and eventually makes it easier to run later in the game when they wear down.
There’s two things going on here — one, simplicity; and two, using a sets that have been effective elsewhere (or complexity). Letting Beadles and Walton ‘fire out and block’ seems like a good way of addressing the experience problem at OG & OC but there’s some copycatting going on, too. We’re obviously surveying the play usage by other teams and stealing whatever might help us. Additionally, I believe Larsen is going to be employed more simply because of his talents, so it’s a personnel-based decision rather than solely a scheme based one. McDaniels has advocated using personnel according to their talents in the past, but his history shows certain tendencies. I suggest that disentangling tendencies from personnel-based usage is sometimes difficult since they overlap.
I have no illusions of 2-back being our primary set/ scheme, but there seems to be adequate reasons for employing it more, given the reasons I list above. The important point here is that success at establishing a running threat helps set up other aspects of the offense. I’m not saying that “you need to run to set up the pass,” which has been partly debunked, but the value of the 2-back set is partly is what it sets up, rather than what it does. Opposing defenses aren’t honoring our running threat anymore, nor are they confused . I see the 2-back as a way of adding new elements of the McDaniels playbook.
Here’s a tidbit to consider (from Klis article, Broncos’ O Stealing from Chargers):
I don’t study these things but I talk to people who do and they say that if you look at it, the Chargers and defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints get remarkable passing production out of running sets. Two backs and one tight end; one back and two tight ends, that kind of thing.
I think the recent use of Branson may indicate some changes are in store. McDaniels has promised us that we’ll see some new wrinkles and my intuition tells me that he’s not being used to merely replicate last year’s usage of the TEs. The usage of the TEs may sound like a separate issue but I lump the usage of FB and TE together as part of the same development.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Jul 12, 2010 5:34 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Its hard to argue with such a well reasoned reply.
Very hard. I like what you’re selling.
: )
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 12, 2010 7:22 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree Rec'd
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
by KaptainKirk on Jul 13, 2010 12:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Nice points, Colinski
There was a picture this year during one of the early off-season OTAs of Spencer Larsen, carrying the ball. What caught my eye about that was that in his first season, Larsen vocally wanted no part of toting the ball. Last year he dealt with injuries, and as a result, this is his first true first full season as a FB.
I’m hoping that McD uses him much as he did Heath Evans in New England – 98% blocking, a few totes and receptions over the course of the year. As has been said, McD has suggested that he’ll be using mostly a two primary back rotation. Larsen could fill the FB end of that role, and his blocking was substantially better than Hillis’. Since the dominant formation is a one-back, whether shotgun or under center, Larsen can maintain that level of work and still function well as a STs specialist. I know that Coach McDaniels has mentioned that he’ll be using the two back offense more, but to me, this gives a greater chance for Baker to get in some carries (and I could be totally off on that). Sammie Morris and Kevin Faulk were used together in a similar or that same 2 back formation with good results, even with Evans available, so this option would be reasonable given McD’s history and his usage of RBs.
And, if Arrington’s knee is back to functional, Denver will have a lot of options available without going to the two or three TE power sets. Arrington is also (was also? We’re still waiting to see how far he’ll come back, I suppose) a very good blocker, with the kind of versatility that McD has been looking for. Depending on the OL, it could be a very good season for the running game.
Gnothi Seauton
Larsen was loyal to his linebacker roots
He definitely wanted to be doing the hitting early on, and he said as much. i don’t know if you caught it or not, but ver y recently (OTAs) he mentioned that part of moving to FB has been learning to think of himself as a FB, rather than a temporarily displaced LB. He said he had been so focused on being a LB still that he felt it was holding him back as a FB, and that he has had somewhat of a seachange in his thinking… i.e., he thinks of himself as a FB now.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 11, 2010 7:05 PM MDT up reply actions
That's interesting
Although being able to play linebacker in a pinch is an asset and part of Larsen’s versatility, it’s the position or specialty that he can be best at that will determine his playing time and much of his value to the team. It’s not like anybody’s shouting it from the treetops but apparently his blocking skills are considerable and that skillset might dovetail with McDaniel’s needs with an offensive line that’s likely to be unsettled for at least the first few games.
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
I would agree
And point out it doesnt really matter if you call him a fullback or linebacker, the guy will surely earn his mail on special teams. As a fullback on a team that rarely uses one, he maybe ironically has more of a chance of contributing here then on D. Where he would likely need two injuries to occur until he would really see playing time
The idea is to have as much talent on the field as possible for as many plays as possible
and at starting fullback (with more emphasis on two-back sets) and special teams ace the Broncos should get quite a few plays per game at a high level of excellence from Larsen. So he’s valuable. What’s interesting is McDaniels saying he wants more two-back sets. I agree with Colinski in taking him at his word, and wonder if this is part of his strategy for surviving the first half of the season with an O-line that’s probably going to start out dodgy. Both Terrell Davis’s and LaDainian Tomlinson’s best years were abetted by top-drawer blocking fullbacks, and having a lead blocker on a higher percentage of plays could help counterbalance some of the inexperience on the line. Except for his linebacking, which is being de-emphasized, Larsen was essentially auditioning for the same role as Hillis and did more of the things McDaniels values better than Hillis did. I’m surprised that he’s that much better a blocker than Hillis, but that’s what I hear, too. I’m glad to see special teams prowess carries more weight than it used to. If a player is likely to see lots of playing time and play well on special teams does it matter if he’s not quite as good a LOLBer as the other guy competing for the job of sitting on the bench when the defense is on the field? So I see the RB roster like several here do: Moreno, Buckhalter, Arrington, Ball, Larsen, with the assigned slots being three runners in rotation plus a back-up (Ball) and one blocking fullback plus a back-up (Ball). Has anyone other than Larsen taken snaps at fullback?
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
Let's hope Moreno holds up better this year...
Last season Moreno faded terribly the last four games and with Buck, J.J. both injury prone I’m guessing McD will rotate with 4 RB’s most of the season to help keep Moreno fresh. He didn’t hold up carry the rock only 15 attempts per game last year. He’s got to step up!
oc60
"Adversity Is Your Asset" John Wooden
I feel extremely comfortable with our 1-2 punch.
The OL health, and the ability of the new O linemen to grasp the plan quickly is the key.
Orton, in his 2nd season in the offense, should take a little heat off the running game. I hope we see more screens to Moreno this year. We tended to throw more to Buck, but I think KM could really shine if given the opportunity in the receiving game.
I just have a feeling that Baker will end up on the roster, although I have no facts for that assumption….training camp will decide this. :)
Thanks for another great look!
Future 2010 MHR Fantasy Football Champion! ;)
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
I have the same feeling about Baker...
There’s a reason he’s still playing football and has the chance to make the squad if healthy. We have two 1-2 punch with Moreno & Buck. I think our 2nd 1-2 punch will be J.J. on ST’s and Baker on Red Zone plays. Just a feeling I’ve had for long time. If both J.J. and Baker come back from injuries they add tremendous talent to our core RB’s. [ J.J. was a legit Heisman Candidate at Cal ].
Can’t wait till TC….
oc60
"Adversity Is Your Asset" John Wooden
great job, coach
I really think the RBs will be a huge receiving weapon this year because of Marshall and Scheffler departing. I envision Moreno, Buck and our #3 RB to be used much more on dump offs and screens between the hashmarks. here’s hoping Eddie can take the LBs with him from slot.
Our RBs will have a huge yr in total yards.
"You are worthress, Arec Barrwin!" - Kim Jong II
by Orange and Blue on Jul 11, 2010 1:38 PM MDT reply actions
Something we often forget about JJ Arrington is his toughness.
His size 5’9" and 212 lbs may seem smaller than others but the Cardinals had him playing most of the 4th Quarter in the SB against the Steelers. He can do a lot of things including block and receive. I see him as part of a 3 back attack with KM and Buck.
I'll start thinking about JJ's toughness
when (if) I finally see him on the field…!
by Merlin Scott on Jul 11, 2010 5:32 PM MDT up reply actions
The OL was fine until the scheme change.
Hopefully they’re getting a firm grasp of it now. It didn’t help that every team knew that they could crowd the line because of the near-exclusive short passing game. Hopefully that can change as well…that would REALLY help the line and the backs. And if Knowshon can hold on to the ball better – since he’ll be the primary back – we should be in pretty good shape.
(Fingers crossed.)
Thanks for the great write-up
one key piece that seems to be missing though is pass-pro. My impression of McD is that he is unwilling to put anyone on the field at RB who cannot perform in pass protection. In fact I think that is why Hillis is no longer with us. Modern pass protection for the RB is very complex – they must be able to read the defense, diagnose possibly blitz threats, block the correct man when needed, and release into the route otherwise.
Buck was outstanding at this last year.
Moreno showed flashes of greatness at it as well, obliterating Ware on one play.
Arrington was brought in, I think, solely because of the prowess he displayed in the SB.
Other RBs will make it or not based on their ability to pass pro
Good call.
I agree that those three players make it. I also agree that their pass blocking talents are a major part of it.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 12, 2010 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Blocking schemes
I’ve seen a number of comments regarding blocking last year that warrant some comment.
going into 2009 the Broncos seemed to attempt a hybrid zone-blocking/power scheme. In practice it did not work as the staff anticipated. Many times the line seemed un-coordinated and confused. Then they went back to straight ZB for a while and it seemed to be more effective.
But when Harris went down and Hamilton was pulled for ineffectiveness in pass protection the cohesion needed to run ZB was lost and the whole run blocking to a huge step backwards.
I don’t think Clady, or Kuper, regressed. But the scheme adjustment didn’t pan out. The power scheme doesn’t require as mush coordination as zone-blocking and given another year to install, I fully expect the line to perform much better – with or without Clady.
Its tough to change schemes mid season
You really have to change things in pre season as you just don’t have the time reps and personnel to do it when you are moving and surviving game to game in the regular season grind. When you have to do something as a major change its very difficult.
We have a much better chance of getting it right before the season starts than on the fly after the season starts.
I think your take on this hits the nail on the head.
Still, I’d MUCH rather see Clady than any alternative at this point.
Formerly known as Hoosierteacher or just HT.
"I presume that all of you here think me worthy of pity. But Great God, when I think I was on the point of doing nothing, I consider myself worthy of envy." Jean Valjean, Hugo's Les Miserables
by Steve Nichols on Jul 12, 2010 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions
obviously we are much better off with a player of Clady’s ability than without. But even without him, I think our line would perfrom better this year than it did toward the end last year.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 12, 2010 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions
That relieves some of my gloom
at the thought of Clady and perhaps Harris starting slow or late and one or two rookies learning on the job. Hope Hochstein is ready to go. Do you think the line will be improved over the latter part of last year even if Beadles and Walton both start? Who do you see at left guard and center?
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
In my opinion one of the short comings of the zone-blocking system is that it isn’t very fault tolerant. The combo block requires great coordination between adjacent blockers. Hold the double-team too long and you cannot reach the second level in time. Slide to the second level too early and you risk the lineman breaking through. Hence when a player like Harris goes down the drop-off isn’t just the difference between Harris and Polumbus (which is significant in itself), you also lose the coordination that Harris and Kuper built together over the past year and a half.
One of the advantages of the power-scheme is that it is less dependent on coordination between the blockers. You have a double-team block, a kick-out, and a pull. While two blockers have to execute the double it’s pretty straight-forward, as are the other blocks. Youth league teams can run the system. Hence the system is less vulnerable to losing a starting lineman.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 12, 2010 7:19 PM MDT up reply actions
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