Quick Shots: Five Denver Broncos Who Are On The Roster Bubble
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 10, 2010 7:30 PM MDT
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Aug 31st is a long ways away still, which means that the cut-down to 75 players is also a long ways away. However, I wanted to share the first output from a grading system I designed which is meant to rank the players during the off-season.
All 79 current players, including Darrell Reid, Ryan Clady and Elvis Dumervil were inputted into it (McKinley was left out), and it churned out numerical grades, between 0.0 and 23.0 for every player. Most of the starters and key backups scored around 15 and higher, while most of the bubble players struggled to approach double digits. I was surprised to find that a few players I thought of as at risk had more or less solidly entrenched themselves through consistency and versatility (such as Nick Griesen who scored a 15.0) .
The factors used to weigh these grades were: Game Performance Trend (Pro only), 2010 Practice Performance Trend, Special Teams Contribution, Starting Trend, Value of Investment, and Lack of Positional Strength and Depth. Most of these are pretty self-explanatory, but her are some quick points: 2010 Practice Performance Trend starts at average for every player, and is adjusted with ABs (atta boys) and HDs (Homer dohs) which were tracked from reputable Training Camp reports. Special Teams Contribution includes both skill at STs work and assignment experience, including in camp. Value of Investment adds a very small percentage of total score, but enough to see a difference between certain players. Lack of Positional Strength and Depth frames how much need the Broncos have for a certain player's skill set. 5 guys competing for one spot is a big difference from 3 guys competing for 2 spots.
Continue below the fold to see the 5 players lowest on the totem pole according to these grades, with some quick commentary...
5. Tony Carter, CB: Last year's practice squad to active roster feel-good story didn't set a good game performance trend, and so far in camp has been making mistakes and failing to stand out for good reasons. Cassius Vaughn is only a fraction of a point behind Carter as well.
4. Patrick Carter/Britt Davis WRs: The new guys haven't had much opportunity for impact, and it shows in their grades. they are pretty much interchangeable at this point, without an in depth analysis to separate one from the other.
3. Jeff Stehle, DL: Competition at his position is strong and deep, and Stehle simply hasn't stood out enough in practice, nor been a contributor on STs.
2. Stanley Daniels, OL: Even if you project Clady to miss the start of the season, there isn't really many openings on the OL at this point. Daniels hasn't got much attention in camp, and what he has received hasn't been positive.
(drum roll)
1. Paul Duncan, OL: What do you get when you combine multiple "Reminder Laps," lack of STs contribution and depth at a position? You get Paul Duncan as the #1 bubble player in camp right now.
*****
In no particular order, here are some highlights from the lowest 22 players beyond the 5 listed above. As you know, the 53 man cutdown occurs within days of the 75, so these players should be considered at risk as well:
McCarthy, Fry, Overbay, Barton, Toney Baker, LeKevin Smith, Chris Baker. Also of note is that two highly scoring players, Brandon Lloyd and Matthew Willis appear to be occupying the same spot on the roster. Whereas Lloyd has the quality in-gmae experience, Willis contributes a heck of a lot more to STs.... Should be interesting.
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New way to crunch some numbers!
Must be a reasonable system, as most of those names sound like good bets for BBS (burst bubble syundrome). However, here’s hoping that C Baker has just been injured enough (or ill enough) to account for his lack of TC props. . We have some time invested in him, and I think if he doesn’t make it onto the squad this year, it may be hard for him to do it.
It is mostly just an accounting of what's known
and then tying it up in a nice little package. Baker graded lower because of the whole package: there are a number of options ahead of him that aren’t going anywhere in the next few months, he is of very limited value on STs, the Broncos have very little actually tied up in him outside of time, he has no in game experience in the pros and he has missed much of the practices so far.
But I’m with you and JeffG below: he was sick and I don’t hold that part against him. He is a project, and as a project he has a certain nature to his development that doesn’t fit neatly into a slapped together grading system.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 10, 2010 11:29 PM MDT up reply actions
Chris Baker's been down with illness/injury, has he not?
And though it doesn’t mean much, even still he’s positioned fairly high on the depth chart. If they didn’t want to risk trying to put him on the practice squad last year, I suspect that they consider him a valuable project player.
Just a vibe I get, but he feels almost like a sort of secret weapon the Broncos are keeping close to the vest at this point.
Likely I’m giving him way too much credit though.
He has had a long time to develop...its now or never I'm afraid.
What does NFL stand for again?
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
Nice Friicken Life!
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
wonder
wonder how Stokely grades out….there is a fellow who might get cut despite possibly scoring higher than some other WRs on your little grading system.
any chance of you posting the numbers?
I'm betting he grades out as veteran leadership with ability to continue playing...grade=roster spot gauranteed
RL isn’t Madden. ;)
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
It isn't worth your time to see all the numbers
Stokes was 18.0 I believe, making him 4th or 5th among the receivers. This system doesn’t separate good players from great players. It mostly just points the fingers at the most likely cuts.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 10, 2010 11:31 PM MDT up reply actions
I like my system better
It has pretty much the same results but is much faster to implement: If I don’t recognize/ have heard their names, chances are they won’t make it
by warmick on Aug 10, 2010 8:36 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
My system
is recorded for posterity. In alder woodcuts.
Different strokes… ;)
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 10, 2010 11:33 PM MDT up reply actions
You mean
you have mastered that art of Ogham Pilgrim?
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Great analysis, styg!
Loved it. Rec’d.
I’m with Jeff above in hoping Chris Baker is making a bigger contribution than we’re aware of. But given that we’ve had MHR boots on the ground with little to say about him, I’ll admit that he may not be much more than a sentimental favorite. Not For Long, indeed.
In good times and bad times, I'm a Bronco fan. Sucka.
The thing about Baker
is he doesn’t fit into the same types of things everyone else does. (At 300+ he probably doesn’t fit into much of anything…) Developing a NT in the NFL, when there is almost zero supply coming in from the supply chain (colleges) means you have to take some risks, and take some lumps in the process.
At this point, I don’t think we have much data to support a hypothesis about him either way. I wouldn’t be surprised if he played his first game in a mask and cape. Secret weapon, indeed…
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 10, 2010 11:37 PM MDT up reply actions
sounds like a subjective grading system...
masquerading as an objective numbers system. And god knows we have enough of those out there already.
Withholding judgement until I hear more about how it works but it’s going to take a lot better of an explanation than that to win me over.
This system goes waaaaay beyond subjective
It is subjective and underinformed to boot. Also, none of the practice grades come from first hand observation either, so their is a level of faith thrown in for good measure.
No, you don’t have to worry about this thing masquerading as anything. I don’t have any plans to publish a Prospectus. Think of it as a compilation of general points… As I mentioned above, this won’t separate, say, Gaffney from Demaryius, but by singling out many of the factors that correspond with longevity in the NFL, it compiles what we might know at a given time, from far ranging resources, and puts it in one place, and in this case, in one column.
The two most important factors, to me at least, is the Lack of Positional Strength and Depth (LoPSaD) and the 2010 Honed Practice Performance Trend (THPPT)[THPPT was not designed by me but by Bill D. Cat who was also the man behind Adjusted Catch Kicking (ACK)]. Basically, is there still room at a spot, and are they standing out in practice? The roster numbers are pretty objective, and I trust guys like Kap, John, Sayre, and the gentlemen over at Broncotalk when they give atta boys and doh!s to players they saw in practice, so I feel like many of the grades are on solid footing, albeit a footing of informed opinion. One of the biggest drawbacks will be that not every player is getting the credit they are due (or the debits) simply because no one is talking about it, or saw it or whatever.
Again, this is just an exercise in unit reduction, taking a lot of general information, tweaking a scale to fit it, and then compiling it for quicker reference. I would need a lot more information to truly take a stab at the ‘objective’ grail.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 11, 2010 12:05 AM MDT up reply actions
We had a huge class last year too
and only one would make the 53 (Baker). No doubt those kids have an uphill battle. Really makes you appreciate the Rods and Woodyards that much more.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 11, 2010 12:11 AM MDT up reply actions
Great work...
I think your system sounds solid and well-thought-out. I know it isn’t as stat-heavy but it kind of reminds me of some of the FO stats, which make logical sense and make certain points very clear, but yet still lack the ability to tell the WHOLE story.
"A man can fail, but he is not a failure until he blames someone else." J. Paul Getty
If we release Chris Baker
I bet Nolan will sign him right away. I think the dolphins needs more body at Nose Tackle. So I’m hoping we keep him, as a lot of people pointed out Dliemen takes a while to develop.
I can't imagine us cutting Baker
when we are [this] close to the ideal time to use him. Baker and Thomas are competing against eachother, with Baker being the truer NT, and Thomas being more versatile…. But the DB.com depth chart lists baker ahead of Thomas right now, for what that is worth
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: You've come far pilgrim.
Jeremiah Johnson: Feels like far.
Bear Claw Chris Lapp: Were it worth the trouble?
Jeremiah Johnson: What trouble?
by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 11, 2010 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions
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