I've been pleased with what I've seen in Kyle Orton's numbers through 2 preseason games: 7 drives, 24/35 (68.%), 7.5 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns (11.4%), 1 interception (2.9%), 1 sack for 7 yards lost, and a 116.5% passer rating. Now I realize this is waaay too small a sample to be used to predict anything at all. I also realize that these were preseason drives, and so, again, do not have much validity for predicting long term success.
But what, if, just what if (and yes, I do know that that is a very very very big "if") Orton and the Broncos offense could sustain that type of production after the season. After the jump, we'll take a quick trip back to La La Land of the Preseason (a place where anything is possible) and do a little kool-aid math, just for fun.
Now, as was mentioned above, so far, Orton has directed 7 drives in the 2010 preseason. A team will average around 10 drives per regular season game. Multiply that by 16 games, and you get somewhere in the neighborhood of 160 drives for the season. If we take Orton's numbers from his 7 preseason drives thus far, and multiply them out over the course of a 16 game regular season they would look like this:
549 out of 800 (68.6%) for 5965 yards with a 10.9 yards/attempt average, and 91 touchdowns against 23 interceptions.
A little unrealistic? You betcha. I've never heard of any quarterback passing 800 times in a season. So, let's try a little different tack, and apply Orton's 2010 percentages for completions, TDs & Ints, along with his average/attempt to his 2009 numbers. In 2009, Orton attempted 541 passes. Using his 2010 preseason effort to date, his numbers in 2010 would look like this:
371 out of 541 (68.6%) for 4057 yards with a 7.5 yards/attempt average, and 62 touchdowns against 15 interceptions.
While I would be more than a little inclined to believe that the touchdown count is way too high, the rest of the numbers do not seem that far out of reach. The two 2009 Super Bowl QBs (Brees and Manning) had touchdown percentages of around 6%. If we applied that to Orton's 2009 stats, we would be looking at 32 touchdowns. That might well be within his reach. Can you imagine how Denver's offense would look if Orton could go:
371 out of 541 (68.6%) for 4057 yards with a 7.5 yards/attempt average, and 32 touchdowns against 15 interceptions?
It would be a great year.
Isn't La La Land of the Preseason a fun place to visit every once in a while?