Rookie Receivers: A Look at History

I have been very uneasy about going into the 2010 season with the receiver corp we currently have, but as I sought to rely on logic to guide my actions, I wanted to look to the past to see if my fears were unfounded. This is my research that I found and compiled, in the hopes of finding a conclusion.

As I went about doing this, I compiled a lot of data, and this is just a compact version, any longer might be too long, which I think it might already be. So as we head out, be patient, or if you are impatient, head to the final secion, and read the summery. For those of you who want the whole story, read on:

Rookie Receivers in the League as a Whole:

So to begin, I just wanted to look at rookie receivers as a body in the league. So I took all the numbers from the rookie receivers from the past decade and put them together to get some averages for each season, here they are:

Rookie Receivers Individually:

Here's a look at receivers from the past ten drafts, now I only listed those who caught at least one pass their rookie season or if they were a first round pick, otherwise this list would be much longer, and the shear volume of later round receivers would flood that data. In the yards column, any bold number is for the player who reached a 1,000 yards, in the touchdowns column, bold equals five or more. In the team column, if the starting quarterback was a Pro-Bowler that season, their team is in bold. This is quite a long table, but if you want to get a feel of how rookies usually do, it would be good to read this. I also apologize about the length again, but if I didn't put the table in, I would probably get called out, so for the sake of proof, here it is:

A Few Thoughts and Facts:

- Rookies with Pro Bowl quarterbacks average 451.3 yards and 2.4 touchdowns and drafted around the 81 spot versus 369.1 yards, 2 touchdowns and taken 54th overall. So a great quarterback makes about  82.2 yards and .4 touchdowns difference with lower ranked players. Pro Bowl quarterbacks make their receivers either better, or at least make the numbers look better. Receivers without Pro Bowl quarterbacks, on average, do worse then those who do.

- Since this doesn't include players who never caught a pass their rookie season, the data leans more so to the side of rookie success, because about 30% of rookie receivers never take a snap, thus putting a lot more 0's in the number to off-set the data. Now I'm not ignoring those players, but for the sake of the study, I wanted to just narrow it down to those players who at least got onto the field.

- After reviews the tables and data, I found that while their has been an upward trend in receptions, yards per reception and total yards, if you look back, the only reason there is an upward trend was because it was climbing back to it's original mean where it was four or five seasons ago. Yards and receptions are at a decade high, but they are only slightly above what they were at in 2004. Yards per reception are actually at a median point, rather then at a high. Now the touchdown chart is the most interesting, because of the huge jump seen from 2008 to 2009. But compared to 2004, it isn't the highest this decade, and from what I can tell, seems more like a rare spike, similar to the one in 2004, rather then a new level of play that's to be expected.

- Last seasons rookies were some of the strongest in a long time, with six being selected in the first round. A class this strong hasn't been seen since 2004 and 2005, both seasons that were above average. Looking at this years receiving class, we aren't even close to as strong as those years. Also due to the fact that from the 1st two rounds only Dez Bryant went to a team with a Pro Bowl quarterback, I don't think this rookie class will do as well. In the 1st three rounds, only three went to Pro Bowl lead teams, Taylor Price to New England and Damian Williams to Tennessee, whose Vince Young was the second alternate and made it in due to Manning, Rivers and Brady all sitting out the Pro Bowl. Now if you look at those who had success, reaching 600+ yards, that leaves eight receivers, of those eight, five had Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Last season was quite a rare season, and isn't a new level of play to be expect, but rather it was great quarterbacks making receivers even better.

- My pick for the lead receiver this next season: Dez Bryant. He is playing for a very balanced offense lead by Tony Romo, and will likely be matched up against the second corner or even the nickel back, which will allow him even more success. Being surrounded by talent, and with a accurate, strong quarterback leading the way, I see Bryant putting up around to 800 yards and 5 touchdowns. Compared to Thomas and Tate, who are on teams that have a group of experienced players fighting for the #1 spot, but lacking a real #1 receiver, they will succeed, but not likely to the level of Bryant. Now I was a little surprised I chose Bryant, he's a talented guy, but there are other talented receivers out there, but I found that have a great team around you makes it much easier to succeed.

- I don't expect, nor do the trends show that there will be a large jump in rookie production next season, and actually as a league, I expect it to fall from it's high point last season. As an average for the past ten seasons, you get 35.7 receptions, 483.5 yards, 13.57 yards per reception and 3 touchdowns. I think we could expect numbers similar to those next season. Now I'm not falling back on the data, but we will likely not be leader by a great passer next season. Orton will play well, but his expected average next season isn't much higher then it was last season, whereas Bryant will have Romo, a player who will likely top 4300+ yards next season. So my prediction for Thomas is 600 yards and 4 touchdowns, give or take 50 yards and a touchdown. Decker I think will be more limited, 400 yards with 3 touchdowns, playing a bigger role in the red zone and on 3rd downs, similar to that of Stokley last season.

- So from what I've seen, do I think we are set because we have two rookies, no, but I am a bit more secure then I was before, knowing that they will still likely contribute to helping our passing game. I just don't see enough from our team to say the Thomas or Decker will come close to a 1,000 yards or more then 5 touchdowns, especially if Royal returns to form and Gaffney keeps the #1 spot.

So for those of you who lived through this, thank you and hope it was informative.