Alphonso Smith and the Wisdom of 2nd Round picks
by MGM on Sep 10, 2010 9:20 AM MDT
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Amidst all the talk of the Alphonso Smith trade(s), there is one constant- we continue to refer to his pick as having been a first rounder. And that is close to the truth, in that we traded away our 2010 first round pick (#14) in order to use the #37 pick of the 2009 draft to take him. However, that does NOT equate to having used a first round pick on Alphonso Smith. It equates to having traded a first round pick, and then used a 2nd round pick to select him. This seemingly unimportant distinction, however, carries a lot of weight. Follow me after the break...
If you look at New England's draft strategies for the past decade, you will notice an interesting trend. Here are NE's picks in the first 3 rounds beginning in 2000-
2000-
| 2.15 | OL | Adrian Klemm | Hawaii | |
| 3.14 | RB | J.R. Redmond | Arizona State |
2001-
| 1.06 | DL | Richard Seymour | Georgia | |
| 2.17 | OL | Matt Light | Purdue | |
| 3.24 | DB | Brock Williams | Notre Dame |
2002-
| 1.21 | TE | Daniel Graham | Colorado | |
| 2.33 | WR | Deion Branch | Louisville |
2003-
| 1.13 | DL | Ty Warren | Texas A&M | from CHI; trade drafts picks 2003 1.14 and 6.20 (was from NYJ; trade draft pick 2003 1.04 plus rec'd 2003 1.22 and 4.19 (was from WAS; compensation WR Laveranues Coles)) |
| 2.04 | DB | Eugene Wilson | Illinois | from HOU; trade draft picks 2003 2.09 and 3.11 plus rec'd 2003 4.20 |
| 2.13 | WR | Bethel Johnson | Texas A&M | from CAR; trade draft picks 2003 2.18 and 4.23 |
2004-
| 1.21 | DL | Vince Wilfork | Miami | from BAL; trade draft pick BAL used to select QB Kyle Boller (2003) |
| 1.32 | TE | Ben Watson | Georgia | |
| 2.31 | DL | Marquise Hill | Louisiana State | |
| 3.32 | DB | Guss Scott | Florida |
2005-
| 1.32 | OL | Logan Mankins | Fresno State | |
| 3.20 | DB | Ellis Hobbs | Iowa State | from BAL; trade picks 2005 2.32 plus rec'd draft pick 2005 6.21, 2006 3rd Round (TBD) |
| 3.37 | OL | Nick Kaczur | Toledo | compensatory pick |
2006-
| 1.21 | RB | Laurence Maroney | Minnesota | |
| 2.04 | WR | Chad Jackson | Florida | from GB; trade 2006 2.20, 3.11 |
| 3.22 | TE | David Thomas | Texas |
2007-
| 1.24 | DB | Brandon Meriweather | Miami | from SEA |
2008-
| 1.10 | LB | Jerod Mayo | Tennessee | from NO |
| 2.31 | DB | Terrence Wheatley | Colorado | |
| 3.15 | LB | Shawn Crable | Michigan | from NO |
| 3.31 | QB | Kevin O'Connell | San Diego State |
2009-
| 2.02 | DB | Patrick Chung | Oregon | from KC |
| 2.08 | DL | Ron Brace | Boston College | from OAK |
| 2.09 | DB | Darius Butler | Connecticut | from GB |
| 2.26 | OL | Sebastian Vollmer | Houston | |
| 3.19 | WR | Brandon Tate | North Carolina | from NYJ through GB |
| 3.33 | LB | Tyrone McKenzie | South Florida | compensatory pick |
2010-
| 1.27 | DB | Devin McCourty | Rutgers | from DAL |
| 2.10 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | Arizona | from CHI through TB and OAK |
| 2.21 | DL | Jermaine Cunningham | Florida | |
| 2.30 | LB | Brandon Spikes | Florida | from MIN through HOU |
| 3.26 | WR | Taylor Price | Ohio | from DAL |
# of 1st round picks- 10
# of 2nd round picks- 13
# of 3rd round picks- 11
So what does list this tell us? First, NE is clearly targeting 2nd round picks to acquire in their trades. And this is particularly the case over the past few years. However, it is also striking that NE has only 3 picks in 11 years in the upper half of the 1st round. Granted they have been an excellent team, but they have had high picks (acquired in trades) that they have generally relinquished (other than in 2001 and 2008 (in 2003 they actually moved back to the 13th pick from the 4th)). So what is their draft strategy, and how does that apply to Alphonso Smith?
Clearly, they, and McX, are focused on value. In the 1st round, and particularly the upper half of the round, the prices paid to rookies are exhorbitant. However, beginning in the latter half of the 1st round, and continuing into the 2nd, the prices fall incredibly quickly. By the time you reach the latter half of the 2nd round, the salaries for players become essentially the same, excepting signing bonus.
One can easily make the analogy to a fantasy football draft. In a FF draft, there will be the few elite players that cost tremendously to acquire (in draft pick terminology). However, after the first half of a round or so, the talent levels off significantly to the point where the next 10-15 players will often have roughly the same worth. However, they still must be selected in order, and if this were the NFL, the players selected highest would be paid exponentially more than those selected last. In fact, the range is extreme- although one could argue the relative merits of the 10-15 players, in terms of worth they are all very similarly valued. Yet, by nature of the in-order selection process, the players selected highest will make exponentially more money than those selected last. So there becomes a severe disconnect between cost and worth.
And this value discrepancy is at the heart of the NE/ McX draft strategy. Rather than pay higher prices for relatively equal talent, trade into the area of the draft with the greatest value ratio (latter part of 1st- end of 2nd) and choose players from that range. Then even if the players don't work out, there will be much less sunk cost, and more capital will be freed to improve the team elsewhere (FA, etc.).
So, in discussing Alphonso Smith, it is actually very important to remember that we TRADED a 1st round pick to acquire him, but did not SELECT him with a 1st round pick. Although this makes no difference in draft pick terms, it makes a tremendous difference in $ terms. Because we actually made a much smaller $ investment in Smith than if we had used a 1st round pick to select him, we saved quite a bit of money that can be used to address other roster shortcomings. So in essence, the trade becomes
2010 1st round pick (#14) for
2009 2nd round pick (#37) AND $
$ can then become FAs which help our team win a championship. See the distinction?
(btw, this post is by no means an attempt to defend the particular selection of Smith, simply to defend the general strategy of targeting and acquiring 2nd round picks)
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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That has been part of my arguement all along..
Money does have something to do with it. Yes, it was a swing and miss. But what if it wasn’t? Sure, hindsight says the Broncos gave up the 14th pick for Smith, but when the trade is made, the Broncos aren’t going to bet against themselves. For most of the 09 season it looked like that pick was going to be in the 20’s somewhere.
Like you said, and I have said, you can’t defend the result. The Broncos missed. What we can do is look how they handled their mistake(got something in return), how they patched it(With Cox and Thompson) and how they continue to focus on the future, not the past…
-TSG
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Thanks John
And like you said, it’s definitely better to swing and miss on a $5 fastball than a $20 one (umm, if fastballs cost money…)
Exactly! And thanks MGM...
Does MGM stand for McGeorge’s manager?
by bfree2bronc on Sep 10, 2010 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Yes, it was a swing and miss. But what if it wasn’t?
But it was and the Phonz is not the 1st time a team tried this trade. History has shown us over and over again that this trade is a failure far more often than not.
After the Phonz debacle, I can’t believe you guys are still in the camp of wanting to see us try these trades again (Poll results).
Well, actually I can believe it. Guys, its okay to admit you are wrong when you are wrong.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Its not right or wrong McG....if you are like me its believing the logic was sound but the result was not the one desired. There is no right or wrong in my opinion.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
The logic was not sound. It’s flawed. It’s proven flawed (ask Bobby Bethard, the former Dolt GM that did a Phonz type trade two or three times with NO success).
Can anyone come up with a single example of a team that traded away a furture #1 draft pick to select a future star in round 2?
Bryan Still, Natrone Means, Alphonso Smith and Tony Ugoh are a few I can think of that failed quite miserably.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
not the point
I wasn’t actually arguing in favor of trading future #1s for #2s, merely that the NE/ McX strategies seem to favor acquiring late 1st/ 2nd round picks.. And more importantly, I’m trying to remind people that we didn’t spend a 1st round pick on Smith, so we don’t owe nearly as much money. To all the people saying we basically drafted Smith with the #14 pick in the 2010, that is a major distinction.
The only 1st round picks that carry obscene salaries are Top 8 picks.
Guys like Clady and Revis are/were on urer-team friendly rookie deals and each was a mid/high 1st round pick. Revis was going to make something like $1MM this season as the best defensive player in the NFL. What a rip off for the Jets right? He was the 13th overall pick a few years ago.
Now those top 8 picks (really top 5) were very troublesome for the last few years so I agree they carried a massive risk. I read that Eric Berry is the highest paid Safety in the NFL? He’s never even played. I get that we wanted to avoid that…. If McD felt his 2009 team was going to be decent (and he said he did), it was really foolish to trade away that 2010 pick. Any 1st round pick after #10 overall is going to be a great team friendly contract if that player performs to his draft position.
With the 14th pick any draft, you usually draft the 1st or 2nd best player at his position in the entire draft. Guys like Patrick Willis, Demarcus Ware, Clady and such. Then you pay them far less than their value for the next 5 or 6 years. McD deserves no snaps for trading that away.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Clady and Revis
are both All-Pro players who have clearly outplayed their contracts simply by nature of the fact that they are both top 3 players at their position in the NFL.
However, their rookie contracts are both still quite expensive, relative to an average NFL player. Darrelle Revis’ rookie contract (incidentally for the same #14 slot) was for $30 million, with $11 million guaranteed. And that was in 2007. Add in 3 years worth of 5% increases, and you’re talking significant guaranteed money.
By comparison, Justin Bannan was signed to a free agent deal worth $22 million with $10.5 million guaranteed in 2010. We got Bannan for less than the $ cost of the 14th pick in the draft.
We basically got Alphonso Smith and Justin Bannan for the $ cost of our 1st round pick.
Actually not a terrible trade (although not one I would make), and it shows how far the money goes.
But Bannon is a career platoon player, not a top shelf DE. He never has been.
$11MM guaranteed over 5 years for Revis? That is chump change. $30MM for five years is chump change too.
I fail to see your point here. My point is that the NFL is not the NBA when it comes to 1st round picks vs 2nd rounders. The difference between the money the 25th pick makes vs the 34th pick is a basis point of a basis point. The sweet spot for the NFL draft over the last five years has been picks 11 thru 28ish. Great talent available for team friendly contracts.
Yeah we missed on Jarvis Moss, but it didn’t kill our cap like the Raiders with JaBust Russell or Run DMC.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Other FAs
we signed for less money than the 14th pick in the draft-
Renaldo Hill- 10 million/ 4 years, 3 million guaranteed
Jabar Gaffner- 10 million/ 4 years, 3 million guaranteed
Correll Buckhalter- 10 million/ 4 years, 1.5 million guaranteed
Brian Dawkins- 17 million/ 4 years, 7.5 million guaranteed.
You’re not going to win this argument, McGeorge. The money paid to the 14th pick in the draft is significant. It is not budget busting, but it is significant. As as the numbers above show, good FAs can be signed for significantly less.
Clady makes 12th pick money which is far more bang for our buck than Hill or Dawkins or Gaff as UFAs. How many folks say “you build a team thru FA, not the draft”
The value for contract you get in round 1 outside the Top 8 to 10th overall picks makes those picks/contracts the most attractive unknown asset in the NFL.
I stole this concept from Mike Lombardi and his research team.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Right
But again, Ryan Clady was an immediate All-Pro left tackle, taken with the 12th pick in the draft. Those don’t come along very often. So sure, if every time you draft in the teens, you take an All-Pro like Revis or Clady, then you are getting remarkable contract value for those players. But that doesn’t change the fact that you are still paying an unproven player, the vast majority of which do not become Cladys or Revis-type All-Pro players, more money than, say
Andre Goodman- 20.5 million/ 5 years, 9.8 million guaranteed.
Another crucial player we signed for less money than the 14th pick in the draft. And again, the point isn’t that we should get rid of 1st round picks- we need them to find elite talent. Simply that they are very costly in $ terms, and many good FAs can be signed for less money
“Any 1st round pick after #10 overall is going to be a great team friendly contract if that player performs to his draft position.”
It seems you’re still thinking of draft choices as though they were apples or cars, rather than the lottery tickets they are.
Great Article MGM
I see the logic but I am with McGeorge never trade a 2nd round for a first unless you got a guarenteed Pro bowler because that is the only way it makes sense. But Great angle that we did save$ which we did, just dont like the trade but love McD.
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Sep 10, 2010 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions
This is going round in circles. You have your opinion. I have mine. if we had of got a solid starter from the Smith pick I would have been happy as we got a good player at a reduced price.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
McG...it has happened. My argument is about using future picks to move up in draft, yours is about this particular scenario. We gave a 5th to get 2 x 7th this year. I am hoping this works out for us with Thompson.
This is the same premise as how we got Smith, except the risk was bigger. We lost. i would support it again in a heartbeat.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Not the same premise or same deal. Not even close.
I too understood the logic of the Thompson trade and was not surprised this one looks good given that McD had ample time to scout this guy.
It is also not surprising he whiffed on Bradstater given he didn’t have a chance to fully scout the 2009 draft.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
As usual we disagree...but thats all cool. Would be boring if we agreed. Thanks for info on Ugoh.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Try your hardest not to support the dumb moves McD makes. He needs people to keep him honest, not a bunch of yes men like Shanny had in 2006 thru 2008.
I wish someone was in the war room in 2009 with the courage to stand up to McD and Xanders when the Phonz debacle occurred.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Hey man, dont get me wrong. I am bummed Smith did not work out. We could have done a lot with the pick. I just support the philosophy, but I am a gambler. For others, I am sure its an insane concept.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
MMM...Tony Ugoh is not a failure man. He is a starting LT/ RT in the NFL. Where's the failure in that?
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Don’t take my word for it.
Go over to the Indy website and ask their opinions of Tony Ugoh.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Nope. Not cut. Put on injured. he immediately started for the Colts as a rookie.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/09/08/colts-wave-goodbye-to-tony-ugoh/
It’s okay to admit when you are wrong. I do it too.
This guy didn’t work out for Indy. Just ask a Colt fan.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
My apologies McG. I thought he was just injured as I read an interview he was trying to get back in 3 weeks.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Nice post MGM and nice comment Guru. The logic was sound, the player did not pan out. Thats how simple it is!
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Also..
And this is a general comment. Agree or disagree,this is what I am looking for in any ‘argument or debate’. Please don’t say ‘You never do this" or "you can’t do that". Do some research, build an opinion off of it, and let’s talk about it.
That is what MGM did. Again, you don’t have to agree with it, but at least there is effort there – not just MSM regurgitation…
-TSG
SBNation's Denver Broncos Blogger
MileHighReport
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by John Bena on Sep 10, 2010 9:50 AM MDT reply actions 3 recs
That has been the MHR creed for a long long time.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
Nice post MSM
that has been my arguement all along, nice put though. Much nicer written than I could sum it up.
Alphonso did not work out…. but we didn’t take a big hit to figure that out financially. It’s all about Risk/Reward.
daaayuuuuum! you gonna take that KB?!? lol -Broncs55
Absolutely not. KB is a function of aggression and rage, the derivative of which can be traced back to my childhood.-KentuckyBronco
PS3 ID: KoRnHo|ed
Thanks Broncs55
And you’re absolutely right- the draft is all about risk/reward. Using 2nd rounders minimizes risk, without much hit to potential reward.
lol
you could probably get about 4 #37 picks for what you would have paid for a #14.
With that said… what are your chances of 1 or more of those 4 players not being a bust, but yet a solid contributor? Probably pretty good, and those that don’t work out… no big loss. Get something for them or just cut ties.
daaayuuuuum! you gonna take that KB?!? lol -Broncs55
Absolutely not. KB is a function of aggression and rage, the derivative of which can be traced back to my childhood.-KentuckyBronco
PS3 ID: KoRnHo|ed
haha
yeah, although the team does still need 1st round picks. There are certain kinds of players that will almost never make it to the 2nd round, like elite tackles. Never could have gotten a Ryan Clady in the 2nd round (we were lucky he lasted to the 12th pick).
very true
however if there are no players that you believe are rewarding enough to take in the first for your specific needs… why take them and not just trade back?
I don’t believe there were anyone, outside of pouncey worth taking with our first pick this year, which is why we traded back.
I think McD was targeting Tebow in the late first round, however Thomas was still on the board that he knew he could not pass up. He grabbed Thomas and then went after his project, which he knew would probably be scarfed up in the late first – early 2nd rounds. I think there were a few teams targeting Tebow with the early 2nd rounds anyhow such as Buffalo.
daaayuuuuum! you gonna take that KB?!? lol -Broncs55
Absolutely not. KB is a function of aggression and rage, the derivative of which can be traced back to my childhood.-KentuckyBronco
PS3 ID: KoRnHo|ed
That is not right. The 14th overall pick does not carry an obscene salary.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
I did and it doesn’t make sense.
Bannon and Alphonso Smith for a 1st round pick salary? Huh… Not one team in the NFL would be happy to have Bannon and Alphonso Smith for the 14th pick in the 2010 draft.
You pro rate that rookie deal over 5 or 6 years and it really looks good for Seattle or whomever selects a good player in the middle of round 1.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
again, not the point
which was simply that, in salary terms, the difference between Alphonso Smith and the 14th pick in the draft is our starting DE’s salary. So it is not an insignificant amount.
When you consider the talent disparity between the 14th and 37th pick and how that pro rates over a long rookie deal (as you said above – no Clady’s or Revis drop to 37) it’s a very insignificant amount.
Mr. Mike Lombardi himself said the best value (and he included salary as a consideration) in the NFL draft is the picks between 11 and 25. If McD felt we were going to be pretty good last year, he traded out of the sweet spot for talent vs contract value.
That’s not smart to me.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
where did I argue that it was a smart trade?
you’re trying to pull me into a larger discussion of Smith’s worth, and that is simply not the point. I was trying to show tendencies towards stockpiling relatively cheap but valuable picks. Not to say that they are better or worse (teams clearly still need 1st round picks), but to show how the NE/ McX approach seems to value these picks, and that their salaries are significantly cheaper. It is only relevant to Smith because people keep claiming that we spent the 14th pick of the 2010 draft on him, which is inaccurate and very misleading from a $ perspective. I am trying to show how, having spent a 2nd rounder on him, a more accurate measure would be to say that we traded our 14th pick for Alphonso Smith and the $ we used to sign Justin Bannan. Or, it if makes you feel better, we traded the 14th pick for Alphonso the $ we used to sign Brian Dawkins last year.
by MGM on Sep 10, 2010 5:26 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Everyone knows a 2nd round pick makes less than a first. That doesn’t need to be pointed out because it obvious.
Denver unfortunately does not have the same problems as NE. NE has several superstars making 2nd contract money (Brady, Wilfork, Moss, Ty Warren and Welker) and guys like Mankins, Mayo Meatherweather that will be up for new deals soon. They need their 2nd round picks to stockpile cheap depth, not to add future superstars. They have those already and can’t afford more – just look at Mankins as proof. Or see how they let guys like Samuel, Seymour, Graham, Watson and such leave as UFAs or trades.
Denver lacks top shelf talent like NE. We only have Bailey on a mega deal and now Elvis. Soon, we won’t have Bailey on a huge deal. We need to think about Clady and maybe Harris, but those deals are a ways off. We need more 1st round talents on our team. NE needs more secondary parts, not stars. Our draft approach can’t be the same because or needs are so much different
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
we've had 4 1st rounders in the past 2 drafts
how many more do we need? And if we had even more, I would be worried that our team was trending too young and losing its veteran leadership.
It’s important to have a balanced roster, including veteran FAs from winning clubs (which Mcx have done a wonderful job of signing) and not just a bunch of highly paid kids. Even if they are talented. Otherwise you end up with a leadership vacuum.
Personally, I would rather have B Dawk on our team for the next couple years providing the kind of veteran leadership and teaching the draft picks how its done.
But we don’t have a balanced roster. We lack top shelf talent. We just need a few more stars. We need talents that will make us a playoff team.
As we all know, all draft picks come with a potential bust label. But far more 1st rounders become the Clady or Bailey type cornerstone players we need to be a playoff contender.
There has not been a single team of inexpensive average players that had playoff success in the last two decades. Right now, Denver is plush with secondary role players like Goodman, Bannon, Gaffney, Orton, Graham, etc. We need two or three more Clady / Elvis types. We also need better depth at O-line and RB, but that is another discussion and a much easier fix with smart late round picks.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
I’d like to wait and see how our recent 1st round picks turn out- it seems like all 4 have a chance to become the type of elite player you are referring to. I think we may have the elite talent we need now- it’s simply a matter of development.
Also, as far as teams that have won a Superbowl without an abundance of stars- how about the 2001 Patriots? A bunch of blue-collar type players, not a lot of stars, and they set up a dynasty. Not bad.
Definitely enjoying this, too, btw. You bring a good time, McGeorge
Thats fair McG....but we are in the position of needing some elite players and some depth. When looked at from that perspective...
Taking guys in the late 1st into the 2nd round actually INCREASES Denver’s chances of 2 things. It should have a HIGH probability of increasing depth at a minimum, have a good chance of bringing in a GOOD QUALITY starter and a decent probability of finding an ELITE player.
SO, looking at probability alone, McX knows they have an AWESOME opportunity to improve the team on at least 1 of 3 levels, unless the player is a complete bust.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Not sure I agree
I think you’re correct that the Patriots seem to value 2nd round picks, but it’s not apparant that they’re valued over 1st round picks. In fact, the Patriots seem to have done the opposite in 2003, sending a 2nd? round pick to BAL for a 1st round pick in 2004.
Finally, a quick perusal of the drafts listed shows substantially more standout players taken in the 1st round than the 2nd, even though the Patriots have exercised more 2nd round picks than 1st round picks.
1st round picks that turned into above average starters:
Richard Seymour
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Logan Mankins
Jarrod Mayo
Daniel Graham and Ben Watson were both contributors, but I’ll give you that they might be merely “average” TE.
2nd round picks that turned into above average starters:
Deion Branch
You can also have Matt Light and Eugene Wilson as average starters.
The jury is still out on the 4 2009 2nd rounders.
The Patriots selected Richard Seymour with the 6th overall pick in 2001 and Ty Warren with the 13th overall pick in 2003. The Warren pick represents a trade up (for more money). Only once, in 2009, did the Patriots not exercise a 1st round pick. I believe that was the year they had their 1st round pick stripped because of spygate, no?
couple rebutts
I absolutely agree that the Patriots value 1st round picks, and posted above that 1st round picks are still certainly necessary. But it is a matter of balance- with too many 1st round picks, the payroll becomes overly invested in young unproven players. If trying to build quickly however, (something it seems McX is doing), it is therefore important to balance the roster with money going to veteran FAs in addition to the draft. And by investing additional picks (not initial picks, but additional picks, i.e. from trades) in 2nd rounders instead of 1st rounders, one is able to maintain financial flexibility while obtaining some level of premium talent.
As for the results on some of the 2nd rounders, it’s too soon to tell with many of them taken in the past few drafts.
Also,
the 1st round pick NE gave up from Spygate was in 2008, not 2009, and was the 2nd of their 1st round picks (the first one having been acquired the previous year from the 49ers). Their 2009 1st round rick they traded away, by trading back twice- first from 1.23 to 1.26, and then out of the first round entirely. And after their wheeling and dealing was done they ended up with four 2nd round picks in that draft. Doesn’t seem very coincidental to me.
The data indicate otherwise....
It seems that the great value here is not in 2nd round picks, but in late 1st round picks. So trading down to the end of the 1st (or back up into it…Tebow…) seems to be the route to take. I think you also need to take into account the makeup of the team. NE just dropped another big contract on brady, so they need to watch their $$$. Dever is in a different position of still needing impact players and therefore should try to be drafting late in the 1st rather than the 2nd.
by Coverboy on Sep 10, 2010 2:13 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
The other thing this highlights for me
is the fickle nature of drafting.
Even in building their dynastic (is that a word?) squad, Belichick and company have totally whiffed a few times on 2nd and 3rd round picks – including guys who are not on their squad a couple years out or even out of the league. Like McD if they didn’t cut it, they are gone – see Jackson, Chad for reference!
This is my major beef with the cult of negativity around Phonz/McDaniels/etc. What standard are you holding these guys to? Total perfection? If so, get ready for a disappointing, slow and painful long term relationship with your football squad…
by jonahsilas on Sep 10, 2010 11:04 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Couldn't disagree more with this article
If you’re saying every year that we should give up our first round pick for a second round pick straight up, I say you’re nuts. Sure you might get a little bit better value, but I’ll take a more talented player any day. This article seems like a desperate attempt to talk ourselves into “hey Alphonso Smith didn’t pan out but it was a good idea!” It wasn’t a good idea, and we all knew it at the time.
Also, using the Patriots to support your claim – it’s just weakly argued… To show that they had 10 1st rounders and 13 2nd rounders as a definitive way of proving that they target 2nd rounders more often is kind of… weak? It’d be one thing if it was a dramatic difference, but it really wasn’t.
Also, let’s compare:
1st Round:
Richard Seymour
Daniel Graham
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Ben Watson
Logan Mankins
Laurence Maroney
Brandon Meriweather
Jerod Mayo
Devin McCourty
2nd Round:
Adrian Klemm
Matt Light
Deion Branch
Eugene Wilson
Bethel Johnson
Marquise Hill
Terrence Wheatley
Patrick Chung
Ron Brace
Darius Butler
Sebastien Vollmer
Rob Gronkowski
Jermaine Cunningham
Brandon Spikes
Look at those lists and tell me which group you would rather have? The 1st rounders has a ton of impact players, the 2nd rounders has just a few of them. Not trying to totally pour cold water on this article, but given the data, I couldn’t possibly disagree more.
by scooter17 on Sep 10, 2010 11:06 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Yeah....he never said that, but whatever. Go back to your list and give us how MUCH all these 1st rounders cost vs the 2nd rounders and get back to us with regards to VALUE to overall MAKE UP of the team.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
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I’ll take superior players with slightly bigger contracts over “value” which in this case is code for “cheap mediocre” players.
Group 1: 9/10 are impact players
Group 2: 3ish/13 are impact players (2 more are close). Many aren’t even with the team anymore.
look at the years
Many of the 2nd rounders are from recent drafts- we don’t know how they’ll do yet.
As for the argument, it is not about 1st vs. 2nd round picks. It is about maximizing value. And in my post, I argued that the value begins around the latter half of the first round. So actually, many of the players you mentioned fall into that category.
And I was simply pointing out the tendency for NE to settle into picks ranging from 1.20-2.30. And this is usually after many trades (both up and down).
by MGM on Sep 10, 2010 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
"slightly bigger contracts"??
That comment shows you are not understanding the major differences in money between 1st and 2nd round picks. Take another look at the $.
There's a big difference
Between the #1 overall pick and the #20 pick for example. Huge difference. And for what it’s worth, I’d rather pay big money for a guy who turns out to be a perennial pro bowler than pay a 2nd rounder half the money to just be a low-end starter or a high-end backup.
High risk, high reward. 2nd round has better value sure, 1st rounders have better players. Quite honestly, you need both to build a winning team.
For what it’s worth, yes the NFL needs a rookie pay scale badly. The top 5 IS a bad place to be picking, I’ll grant you that.
No way are the 2nd round guys are "slightly cheaper". They are WAY cheaper, and seen as WAY better value for money. When you are trying to build a roster while still playing to win....
You cant take the RISK of taking 1st round players all the time. They have almost high % of failure as 2nd round players. Mc D and Xanders are still trying to win….they are not rebuilding!
So why a lot of fans bag on the Alphonso Smith gamble, the reasoning behind it is more than sound. And guess what, due to their scouting they have found 2 guys in the 5th and 7th rounds that they like MORE than the 2nd round pick. Thats AWESOME and GREAT value for money.
I just dont get how people dont see this. It seems pretty obvious to me!
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Bringing in the 5th and 7th rounder is not really the point
Not arguing at all with that. I think the Broncos had one of the best drafts in the league this year! Broncos owned this years draft. Considering how well we did, how nice would it have been to have yet another 1st rounder?? Seeing how well McDaniels and crew did with more time to prep for the draft, imagine if they had another 1st rounder to play with!
My point is, yeah a 1st rounder is a gamble and yeah it hurts a bit more to miss on one. Who do you have more faith in though? An undersized corner taken in the 2nd round on a year that you had almost no time to properly scout, or a 1st rounder (around 15 or so if I remember correctly) that you’ve had much more time to evaluate. Take a look at this year’s draft and see the talent that was still on the board at that point. An awful lot that’s for sure!
Also, claiming the 1st rounders have almost as high a failure rate as 2nd rounders without any data to back that up is weak. Well I say they have half the chance to fail. Who’s right? I sure don’t know ;).
Another fact you need consider – is do 2nd rounders have as good a chance as 1st rounders to turn into elite (by that I mean more than one Pro Bowl) players? I don’t have data to back it up nor do I have time to research it at the moment, but I highly doubt it. That doesn’t mean 2nd rounders (or 7th for that matter) can’t do that, but play the odds. It’s high risk yes, but also higher reward.
My point isn’t that 2nd rounders are dumb or anything ;), my point is I’ll take a 1st round pick over a 2nd round pick 90% of the time. Now I’ll take 2 2nds over a 1st in a heartbeat, but that’s a different story. I’m straying off topic a bit, so I’ll just hit the post button.
Dont call me weak man...no need for that. I believe that Brian may have done a post on it and I recall their not being a disproportionate amount of difference.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Hey man...go check this out. I knew I had read it somewhere...
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2009/3/20/804891/success-by-position-and-ro
So, depending on position, you can see the success rates of each position in the draft by round. Its pretty interesting and gave me a good understanding of in what positions a team needs to hit on in the early rounds. Hope you enjoy the read.
There is some large discrepancy in some positions eg QB and not in others eg RB and TE.
Thanks SCooter.
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Actually, it's not a different story...
according to the draft value sheet that many people use to coordinate trades, 2 2nd rounders are roughly equivalent to 1 first rounder taken in the same portion of the round. So actually, your admission that 2 2nd rounders is better than 1 first rounder isn’t an obvious one at all, and in part proves the point of this post.
Better response to the whole cost thing
Really, the cost issue is overrated unless you are picking in the top 5 year after year, in which case is it a very real issue. If you get a 2nd rounder, pay him less, and he turns out to be a stud… Chances are he’ll be holding out until he gets paid like a stud within a year or two anyways. The only way in which a 2nd rounder is better is that it hurts a less to miss on one, but if that’s the only reason then we should stock up on 7th rounders, because then if they fail, big deal! They cost us nothing!
Hope that clarifies my thoughts a bit better…
We should run a list of first round draft picks by the Broncos during the same period
and them compare them to the PATRIOTS second round picks. :)
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
I might do that later
I’m curious to see some draft records. I was actually really impressed actually by the Patriot’s 1st round picks. I’m not sure we could find 3 teams in the league with a better first round track record.
Please don’t. I can’t stand to see names like George Foster and Willie Middlebrooks.
Those guys were only 1st round picks because 1 NFL team was dumb enough to rate them that highly.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
by McGeorge on Sep 10, 2010 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
HAHAHA....that I can agree with!
You, my friend, are proof you dont need to have big floppy feet and a red nose to be a clown!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
2000-Deltha O’Neal
2001-Willie Middlebrooks
2002-Ashley Lelie
2003-George Foster
2004-D.J. Williams
2005-None
2006-Jay Cutler
2007-Jarvis Moss
2008-Ryan Clady
2009-Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers
2010-Demaryius Thomas, Tim Tebow
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 10, 2010 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Damn IT!
Lelie? Why?? Ed Reed was right there and we NEEDED a safety? WHY!!!!!!!!
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
by McGeorge on Sep 10, 2010 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
We knew Kenoy Kennedy would be there later!
lol
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 10, 2010 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Maybe THAT was the beginning of the neglected D
- Nick
"Know the enemy, know yourself, and victory is never in doubt, not in a hundred battles."
- Sun Tzu
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This is a great post. It won’t turn green for many reasons, but still.
A funny thing I see with MHR and the Phonz ordeal is that when I would say "the Phonz is not good and he’ll get cut in TC in 2011 or we should trade him for anything, people would say I was being impatient and you need to give rookies three years, esp CBs because it’s hard to learn this position.
McD decides to trade Phonz away for a sack of Doritos before Smith’s 2nd season and he is glorified and praised endlessly for not getting caught up in sunk cost thinking.
McD showed even less patience than I did. McD cut bait on Phonz after a handful of regular season games. But this was not impatience, it was courage and cahones!?!
After watching the 2010 preseason, I would have traded or cut Nate Jones. Easy choice.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
by McGeorge on Sep 10, 2010 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
not praised, simply acknowledged
for his honesty in evaluations. So many coaches preach that the best 53 will make the team, while favoring those they selected. McX took the route less traveled, and I appreciate their (apparent) honesty and clarity in evaluations. Even if it means admitting a mistake. And hopefully he has learned from it. We’ll see.
“Even if it means admitting a mistake”.
And that mistake was not drafting the Phonz. The Phonz was selected right about where most NFL folks said he’d go. We didn’t reach on Alphonso at all. He was considered a 2nd round talent we took in round 2.
The mistake was trading away a future unknown 1st rounder from a strong 2010 draft (which was known back before the 2009 draft) for a 2nd round talent in a weak 2009 draft.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
no disagreement there
and you’ve been proven correct on your arguments about Smith. Unless, of course, Grankowski becomes the next Gates ;)
The amount of time McD/X had to...
gather a coaching staff, deal with head ache players, scour the free agency board, put a new system in place and evaluate players already on the team and then…And then, make sound decisions in the 2009 draft!?!…If anybody can’t see the work that they had piled upon them last year coming in then they are seriously in trouble! This years draft is a testament of having the time to put together the draft board and fully evaluate prospects from the bottom to the top…They razzle-dazzled the draft in the first round and McD/X should win an emmy if it were possible! How many of you rewatched the draft just to watch them do their magic? I did! I was amazed at the manipulation of the first round…As was the world!
his time was very limited
especially considering he couldn’t trust who Shanahan employed for scouting as McD wasn’t looking for the same type of players.
McD had to hire a scouting team or specialized scouting business to do it. So the draft was a time crunched cross your fingers type of draft at best.
You can see the difference a year makes, however!
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I agree with you
Which is yet another reason the Alphonso trade was a bad idea. If they had less time to be prepared, why NOT sit on the 1st round pick that was waiting next year? Then they’d be better prepared to spend it. Make sense?
I think McD/X was looking to get a value (A Smith) at the pick.
Sure he could have used that pick this year, but the way they manipulated the first round this year is a testament of McD/X’s prowess in drafting if given enough time to work on it. I can’t fault the A Smith pick myself, but I could see where others might take issue with it, i.e., losing a 1st rd pick is frustrating and could have been used this year for further draft uses…But i can’t hold this against the front office, what I will do is watch how this team plays and plays together as a team and the playcalling, which too me was suspicious at times last year. That’s the important things for me a ththis point and time…Go Broncos and kick some serious bootay!
by bfree2bronc on Sep 10, 2010 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions
I guess it comes down to the phrase "hold it against them"
I do hold it against them as a mistake. That said…
I do agree with the general consensus that the Broncos owned this years draft. I hold that “against” them as well if I can use the same word. Overall, I think McDaniels will be a success in the draft which will by extension make him a success as a coach.
My hope is this – that it’s acknowledged as a mistake and not repeated. If the Broncos ever give up a 1st rounder for a 2nd rounder (straight up trade that is), I will bang my head against the nearest brick wall over and over again.
Great article!
To all those who are so upset about the Phonz deal, I hope this addresses most of your concern. Sure, it is unfortunate this did not work out – and it was a lost opportunity. But there will be drafting failures (look at all the NE draft picks above – many great players – and several failures).
The jury is still out on McD/X – and I have some concerns there too – but the Phonz deal is not one of my concerns – unless draft failures become a trend.
The key point is we did not lose a lot of money. Now if Moreno, Ayers, D Thomas, or Tebow become failures, then any of those would hurt much more than the Phonz deal. Those four players cost a lot of money. And to those who say we need first round draft picks – we had four in the past two years – and have one next year (plus two 2nds).
I agree 2nd round picks have been better values (not better players) in the salary capped NFL. However, that may not be the case going forward with the next CBA, if a lower salary scale is established for 1st round draft picks.
interesting point
about the new CBA probably changing the relative value of 2nd rounders. We’ll just have to wait and see, I suppose
Great point about the CBA
A rookie pay scale HAS to be coming, and this will somewhat restore the balance. Mostly it will affect the really bad teams – the Oakland/Detroit/St. Louis of the league that get stuck dishing out big dollars every year to a high draft pick. It’s no big deal to have that every now and then, but five years in a row, it really hurts.
Nice post.
I agree that looking at the contract costs for 1st round talent is an important part of analyzing whether trading to acquire 2nd round picks is a worthwhile strategy to pursue.
The key balance is talent vs cost. Normally, the talent level of the players available drops as the draft progresses, as does the cost per player. I don’t think there is a simple solution to optimizing these two variables though.
Each year the talent pool changes, and the drop-offs in talent vary at each point in the draft. For this reason, decisions need to be made on a case by case basis. Sometimes the best move is to use the pick you have. Sometimes the best move is to trade. It depends on who is willing to trade, what they would give, who is available now, and who is likely to be available later. There is always a degree or risk involved in any decision.
I also think that it is important to note that just because Phonz did not happen to work out does not mean the strategy is necessarily unsound. It just wasn’t the right move in that particular instance.
Totally agree with you Scooter
Look, I understand the reasons for the A. Smith pick/trade, I just don’t agree with them.
I think you had a young coach trying to make an impact and he swung and missed badly. The thing I think that this article fails to address is that New England generally (IMO) has a better opinion about the overall draft class. They will get out of poor classes (like two years ago when A. Smith was drafted) and stockpile picks in stronger classes (like this past years), with the idea that better to have more picks in a deeper class than reach for guys in a poor class. The biggest error I felt was that McDaniels overvalued the draft class of 2009 compared to 2010. 2010 draft class was arguably the most talented in a long time, while 2009 draft class was piss poor, most of the guys drafted in the 1st round in 2009 probably would of been lucky to be drafted in the 3rd round of this last years class. Even if our pick had been in the top 20 of this past years class, I still would want that talent level option versus the 2009 level.
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by Broncoman on Sep 10, 2010 11:19 AM MDT reply actions 3 recs
Interesting point
and I would need to look at the results a bit more closely to see if that is indeed the strategy of NE- to try to trade out of weak drafts into stronger ones. But if so, that would certainly add another level of value strategy, one that I would like to see McX emulate in future years. We’ll see, but I think it can be very difficult to predict the strength of an entire draft- many times I’ve read that a particular draft is expected to be weak, only to have in turn out quite well or vice versa. Heck, look at the “QB Draft” of 99. Supposed to be one of the strongest ever (at the time) and it turned out to be a bust-a-palooza.
My guess is that it’s more likely that NE is simply backing out of drafts in which their primary targets are either taken or will cost too much to draft.
Excellent comment
I think you summed up my feelings exactly.
What he really missed on
Was not trading a first for the right to draft ALphonso Smith, they should have gone with what at least was being reported, which was that James Laurinaitis was their top target in round two. They should have used their assets to move back into the first and acquire him rather than having three 2nd rounders. Laurinaitis in the late first would have been much better value that Smith in the early second, a much more calculated risk because Laurinaitis at least had ideal NFL measurables and intangibles. When he fell, they should have leaped onto the board and picked him.
Hindsight is 20/20, but Laurinaitis’ do not grow on trees, and the Broncos were not overly deep at ILB. Top target for next year’s draft in fact.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 10, 2010 2:40 PM MDT up reply actions
NO!!!!
Stop trading away future unknown #1 picks.
There are many great players in every draft that get drafted after round 1.
Show some damn patience on draft day and use the picks you have in that draft. Maybe there is a Tebow every so often you just have to get, but other than those select times, just let the board come to you. Guys like Parrish Cox fall in every single draft.
Baltimore is the model. They bid their time and select the BPA in all rounds. It’s why they’ve been so good the last decade.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
by McGeorge on Sep 10, 2010 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
And yet they only have 1 SB championship…
Being the best drafting team (BAL,PHI,SD,IND) doesn’t seem to equal SB rings
Eh
You’re cherry-picking stats a bit here. You can’t judge just based on SB rings, you judge on overall success.
Being one of the best drafting teams puts you in the playoffs every year. I believe all of those teams have been in the playoffs the last two years (if they haven’t, then at least 2 of the last 3 years) and Denver has missed the playoffs.
Once you get to the playoffs, all bets are off. But being in the playoffs 2-5 straight years is a success, and often is a result of drafting well.
Not cherry picking. I didn’t say the uber drafting teams don’t win games. They do. But building through the draft isn’t enough to win the big one. You ultimately need luck, FAs, an elite QB and good/elite coach.
Anyway, if the best drafting teams are best positioned to win SBs, you would expect them to win more. It might rotate—BAL one year, SD the next. But that isn’t who wins it. It tends to be the team that gets the right pieces in place (not through stockpiling 2nd round picks) and gets hot at the end of the year.
The goal of the NFL is to win the SB each year. It isn’t to amass the most reg wins or be the paper SB champ every year (see SD). SB wins are the only criteria as far as I’m concerned.
Another thing about the trade
do you think they understood what would happen in 2010 with the looming lockout in 2011. Anyone who could come out early did. Which int turn created a deep draft.
"3 and Out Baby" I ride the short bus!
It was even more than that. There were a lot of players expected to enter the 2009 draft that returned for Sr. seasons.
Guys like Sam Bradford, Suh, Gerald McCoy, Taylor Mays, Okung, Gresham, Kindle and a few others all carried 1st round pick grades heading into the 2009 draft. But they surprised many people when they decided to return to college for another year. This happened before Jan 15th 2009. This really pushed down the talent in the 2009 draft.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
I have to agree with McGeorge.
If we were going to trade away that 1st rounder we should have waited until this year and traded back into the second round with it while aquiring a couple more picks in the process. In such talent rich draft as this one we could have traded out of it while picking up a Toby Gerhart or a Nate Jones in the process. Hell, we even could have used it and picked up Weatherspoon along with Tebow and Thomas. How would that have been? This was definitely a bad play by McX and judging by this years draft I would say he has learned from his mistake. Like McG said, you can’t trade future first round unknowns for a gamble. Especially on second round talent in a shallow pool.
Massey-Thaler study
I wanted to post this study again. The following excerpt is from the conclusion of the study:
http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/pdf/massey_thaler_overconfidence_nfl_draft.pdf
We suspect that some teams have not fully come to grips with the implications of the salary cap, a relatively new innovation. Buying expensive players, even if they turn out to be great performers, imposes opportunity costs elsewhere on the roster. Some of the successful franchises seem to understand these concepts, most notably the New England Patriots, but others do not. – (p.36)
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
Thanks Colinski
That is a great article. I’ve read excerpts from it before, but thank you for linking to the entirety.
As someone noted above, it will be interesting to see what happens with the new CBA and possible rookie scale. That could certainly change the budget balancing of a lot of teams.
NE already has several opportunity cost players on their roster in Moss, Brady, Welker, Wilfork and Warren.
We don’t. We need more stars before we worry about opportunity cost. Denver did not play up against the cap in 2009. We are not San Diego, NE, Indy or Pitt with their expensive roster of studs on 2nd contracts trying to figure out how to keep our own players. We have plenty of room to resign guys like Elvis or Marshall if we so choose.
We can’t stockpile 2nd round talents because we still need some stars to be playoff competitive.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
what the Massey-Thaler shows
NE already has several opportunity cost players on their roster in Moss, Brady, Welker, Wilfork and Warren.
We don’t. We need more stars before we worry about opportunity cost. Denver did not play up against the cap in 2009.
We can’t stockpile 2nd round talents because we still need some stars to be playoff competitive.
There’s two things going here — one is the cost in salary and the the second is the value of the pick. Owners would argue that maximizing surplus value (i.e., cost effectiveness) is a worthwhile goal in its own right because it’s more profitable but fans will probably be more concerned with the wise use of draft choices.
There aren’t “opportunity cost players” but there are high and low picks and commensurate probabilities of them becoming stars. Lower picks can become stars, too, such as two of our 2006 4th rounders — Marshall and Dumervil. Teams with important needs to fill will still turn to higher picks even though it’s somewhat less economical but it’s primarily a consideration for renegotiation rather than the draft. Wise teams cull their rosters of the Seymours, Cutlers and Marshalls, etc., and convert their value back into picks. Picks in the late 1st and early 2nd round are more cost-effective but you can’t produce a desired mix of stars and blue collar players merely by drafting some high and some low and designating them as such. The best strategy is to maximize pick value because more stars will develop, even though we may not be able to successfully predict which ones they’ll be.
Most teams have realized the wisdom of Massey-Thaler and that’s why it’s so hard for teams to trade down from the top ten. On the other hand, the trade value chart is still in use and the discount rate is still high (about a round per year, which makes Alphonso Smith a value but at rate that overvalues getting him early), but there may be a reason for that besides overconfidence since the tenure of football coaches is so short (on average).
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
Yes. And another thought...
The other thing about trading down is you get more picks, which means more players. If you value competition and think it will improve the performance of the starters, as McX seems to do, then this is another good point of the strategy. Also, as you stated, you free up $$, which means you can bring in more competition from free agency. I think you might sometimes need players from early in the first round in the case of truly unique talent, but it’s quite possible that this value strategy could build a better TEAM, even if you miss out on getting a wonderfully exceptional player to fill a roster spot here and there. You can always wait for Philidelphia to cut some more of their best players lol.
time value & fast failure
Would you rather have $100 today, or $100 next year? Smart people recognize that obtaining $100 today is more valuable than obtaining the same sum next year. It’s called the ‘time value’ of money. The same thing exists with knowledge. Be the information good or bad, it’s better to gain it now than next year.
Thus, we enjoyed (more or less) Alphonzo’s services 12 months earlier than we could have enjoyed the services of a 14th pick this year. We also benefited from fast failure, which is preferable to slow failure.
I’d rather have $200 next year than $100 this year. That was the Alphonso Smith trade from Seattle’s prospective.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
And from ours: We blew the $100 almost completely. A. Smith, from our perspective, is now officially a bust. The jury will be out on McD until some of the following players actually make an impact:
1. Moreno
2. Ayers
3. Richard Quinn (who did have an unforgettable ass chewing to his credit yesterday)
4. Demaryius Thomas
5. Tim Tebow
Thomas and Tebow combined to 2 yards yesterday. But I know it is way too early to judge them. Ayers had a sack. He also looked noticeably overmatched on a few runs around his end. Moreno finally had a few nice runs, but doesn’t look like a game changer by any means. I’m hoping that at least 2 or 3 of the above players start to have an impact this season.
A positive from yesterday? Orton looked very good, imo. Especially when he was able to deliver the ball with someone in his face, something I didn’t think he could do last season.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Sep 13, 2010 11:03 AM MDT up reply actions
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