Last week I posted a report grading the 2009 NFL Draft for the Broncos, and compared it to the other teams of the AFC West. I've looked into it a little more and have updated it to include the 2010 draft.
For review, what I am specifically examining is how many game appearances each draft pick has made, for each team (even if the player goes on to play for another team). We can grade each team in terms of how effectively they pick players that are capable of making game appearances.
The theory is simply that better players make more game appearances in their careers. A team has a good draft if their draft picks have a high percentage of game appearances over a long period of time.
This method does not attempt to grade teams on their effectiveness of retaining talent, of making responsible trades, or of attracting talent through means other than the draft - this is simply to see who is good at drafting.
Numbers after the jump.
Denver Broncos 2009 | |||
Player | Game Appearances | Possible Appearances | Score |
Knowshon Moreno | 17 | 17 | 100% |
Robert Ayers | 16 | 17 | 94.11% |
Alphonso Smith | 16 | 17 | 94.11% |
Darcel McBath | 13 | 17 | 76.47% |
Richard Quinn | 16 | 17 | 94.11% |
David Bruton | 15 | 17 | 88.24% |
Seth Olsen | 3 | 17 | 17.65% |
Kenny McKinley | 8 | 17 | 47.06% |
Tom Brandstater | 0 | 17 | 0% |
Blake Schlueter | 0 | 17 | 0% |
Total | 104 | 170 | 61.18% |
At the end of last season, we were at 61.88%, so our score went down a bit, mostly because Darcel McBath didn't play.
Denver Broncos 2010 | |||
Player | Game Appearances | Possible Appearances | Score |
Demaryius Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Tim Tebow | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Zane Beadles | 1 | 1 | 100% |
J.D. Walton | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Eric Decker | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Perrish Cox | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Eric Olsen | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Syd'Quan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Jammie Kirlew | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Total | 4 | 9 | 44.44% |
Given neither of our wide receivers made an appearance, I would expect our score to go up for this draft.
Typing these tables is harder than I thought, so I'll just summarize all four teams in the division.
Team Draft | Last Week | This week |
2009 Broncos | 61.88% | 61.18% |
2010 Broncos | 44.44% | |
2009 Raiders | 66.07% | 66.39% |
2010 Raiders | 33.33% | |
2009 Chiefs | 53.90% | 53.68% |
2010 Chiefs | 71.43% | |
2009 Chargers | 51.56% | 50.74% |
2010 Chargers | 16.67% |
Notes - The Raiders are the only team whose 2009 draft class had their score go up this last week. Also interesting how conventional wisdom is that their 2009 draft class sucked (Heyward-Bey) and their 2010 draft class was strong, when the stats are showing the opposite could be true. Chiefs had a scary good 2010 draft. And Ryan Matthews is the only Charger from 2010 that saw the field this last week.