Grading The Draft (2)

Last week I posted a report grading the 2009 NFL Draft for the Broncos, and compared it to the other teams of the AFC West.  I've looked into it a little more and have updated it to include the 2010 draft.

For review, what I am specifically examining is how many game appearances each draft pick has made, for each team (even if the player goes on to play for another team).  We can grade each team in terms of how effectively they pick players that are capable of making game appearances.

The theory is simply that better players make more game appearances in their careers.  A team has a good draft if their draft picks have a high percentage of game appearances over a long period of time.

This method does not attempt to grade teams on their effectiveness of retaining talent, of making responsible trades, or of attracting talent through means other than the draft - this is simply to see who is good at drafting.

Numbers after the jump.


Denver Broncos 2009
PlayerGame AppearancesPossible AppearancesScore
Knowshon Moreno1717100%
Robert Ayers161794.11%
Alphonso Smith161794.11%
Darcel McBath131776.47%
Richard Quinn161794.11%
David Bruton151788.24%
Seth Olsen31717.65%
Kenny McKinley81747.06%
Tom Brandstater0170%
Blake Schlueter0170%

At the end of last season, we were at 61.88%, so our score went down a bit, mostly because Darcel McBath didn't play.

Denver Broncos 2010
PlayerGame AppearancesPossible AppearancesScore
Demaryius Thomas010%
Tim Tebow11100%
Zane Beadles11100%
J.D. Walton11100%
Eric Decker010%
Perrish Cox11100%
Eric Olsen010%
Syd'Quan Thompson010%
Jammie Kirlew010%

Given neither of our wide receivers made an appearance, I would expect our score to go up for this draft.

Typing these tables is harder than I thought, so I'll just summarize all four teams in the division.

Team DraftLast WeekThis week
2009 Broncos61.88%61.18%
2010 Broncos44.44%
2009 Raiders66.07%66.39%
2010 Raiders33.33%
2009 Chiefs53.90%53.68%
2010 Chiefs71.43%
2009 Chargers51.56%50.74%
2010 Chargers16.67%

Notes - The Raiders are the only team whose 2009 draft class had their score go up this last week. Also interesting how conventional wisdom is that their 2009 draft class sucked (Heyward-Bey) and their 2010 draft class was strong, when the stats are showing the opposite could be true. Chiefs had a scary good 2010 draft. And Ryan Matthews is the only Charger from 2010 that saw the field this last week.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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