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Grading The Draft (2)

Last week I posted a report grading the 2009 NFL Draft for the Broncos, and compared it to the other teams of the AFC West.  I've looked into it a little more and have updated it to include the 2010 draft.

For review, what I am specifically examining is how many game appearances each draft pick has made, for each team (even if the player goes on to play for another team).  We can grade each team in terms of how effectively they pick players that are capable of making game appearances.

The theory is simply that better players make more game appearances in their careers.  A team has a good draft if their draft picks have a high percentage of game appearances over a long period of time.

This method does not attempt to grade teams on their effectiveness of retaining talent, of making responsible trades, or of attracting talent through means other than the draft - this is simply to see who is good at drafting.

Numbers after the jump.

 

Denver Broncos 2009
Player Game Appearances Possible Appearances Score
Knowshon Moreno 17 17 100%
Robert Ayers 16 17 94.11%
Alphonso Smith 16 17 94.11%
Darcel McBath 13 17 76.47%
Richard Quinn 16 17 94.11%
David Bruton 15 17 88.24%
Seth Olsen 3 17 17.65%
Kenny McKinley 8 17 47.06%
Tom Brandstater 0 17 0%
Blake Schlueter 0 17 0%
Total 104 170 61.18%

At the end of last season, we were at 61.88%, so our score went down a bit, mostly because Darcel McBath didn't play.

Denver Broncos 2010
Player Game Appearances Possible Appearances Score
Demaryius Thomas 0 1 0%
Tim Tebow 1 1 100%
Zane Beadles 1 1 100%
J.D. Walton 1 1 100%
Eric Decker 0 1 0%
Perrish Cox 1 1 100%
Eric Olsen 0 1 0%
Syd'Quan Thompson 0 1 0%
Jammie Kirlew 0 1 0%
Total 4 9 44.44%

Given neither of our wide receivers made an appearance, I would expect our score to go up for this draft.

Typing these tables is harder than I thought, so I'll just summarize all four teams in the division.

Team Draft Last Week This week
2009 Broncos 61.88% 61.18%
2010 Broncos 44.44%
2009 Raiders 66.07% 66.39%
2010 Raiders 33.33%
2009 Chiefs 53.90% 53.68%
2010 Chiefs 71.43%
2009 Chargers 51.56% 50.74%
2010 Chargers 16.67%

Notes - The Raiders are the only team whose 2009 draft class had their score go up this last week. Also interesting how conventional wisdom is that their 2009 draft class sucked (Heyward-Bey) and their 2010 draft class was strong, when the stats are showing the opposite could be true. Chiefs had a scary good 2010 draft. And Ryan Matthews is the only Charger from 2010 that saw the field this last week.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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