2010 Schedule Analysis and Prediction Final Part & Hold Yourselves Accountable!

In my final season analysis, I took into account preseason play, free agency, and the draft. I tried to be as thorough as possible, and tried to make it obvious why I chose my outcome. So the first part of this post will be the analysis and prediction, the second part will be your prediction. Now I know this has become trendy to ask, the preseason is now over, the final cuts have been made, there is nothing more to really know before the season starts, so it's put up or shut up. Now I will be holding people, including myself, accountable for what is said here, so your vote is final. So put your prediction as a comment if you want, include in your comment post-season prediction as well. Good luck.

Week 1 Jacksonville (away):

Free agency and the draft: Made some moves early in FA in January, adding depth with 2nd string players. By adding Aluala and Smith to their DL, they are improving a pretty decent defense, and it didn't hurt that they spent their first 4 picks on their defensive line. This team has been trying to build up and become a more solid team, but they aren't at that level yet. The preseason really didn't show much positive, outside of Luke McCown, but I did notice their offensive line seems to be stepping up.

The game: This team is one that I think is headed the route of the Rams, not their record just their style, with a strong running back and a decent quarterback, the Jags will be coming out of the gates fighting next season. Sadly, they really haven't done much to improve in free agency, which means that this team will be one that will struggle. Garrard didn't exactly play great in the preseason, which won't bode well for their passing attack, forcing them to rely on MJD even more. Dangerous in their own division, they aren't really much to be feared, even at home, where they rarely sell out. If we can contain Maurice Jones-Drew, I think this game shouldn't be too bad, it will come down to containing Jones-Drew. After watching this preseason, I do worry about our run defense, but if we can bend and not break on MJD, I think Orton can help put up enough points that we should be fine. Also having Tebow come into town might be fun too. W

Week 2 Seattle (home):

Free agency and the draft: Seattle has made a lot of move this off season, signing Whitehurst, and trading Burleson, as well as smaller moves, and add in a great draft, Seattle is shaping up to make a great competitor in future seasons. By picking up Earl Thomas, Walter Thurmond, and Kam Chancellor adds some great weapon on defense and adding Okung will give Hasselbeck some time to use his new weapon in Golden Tate. They also added depth in their RB corp by trading for Leon Washington. Seattle's draft is just fantastic and very well rounded.

The game: This team has done some good moves this off-season, as well as a fantastic draft, enough to move them much closer to .500, but it is hard seeing them as a real competitor yet. While their defense has improved some, Earl Thomas makes it bit scarier then before when you could throw blindfolded into the secondary and not worry, it isn't enough to compete with a good offense and a dominating defense either way. Turnovers will be key, their secondary seems primed to make quarterbacks lives terrible with interceptions, but their defensive line can't seem to stop the run or get pressure. Their offense is looking much better, and with a very solid running game, and an improved passing game, there team won't be as much of a pushover as last season. But if we can continue to maintain a solid defense, I think we can hold off this rising team. The Seahawks always play much better at home, and with their good draft this will be a good game but they are just a year or two shy of being a real competitor. The preseason was interesting, but they aren't playing at a real high level yet. Look for the first big game of the season for our running backs. W

Week 3 Indianapolis (home):

Free agency and the draft: The Colts have been fairly quiet this off season with mostly small FA moves, and with their draft they added just a few players that will fix some small holes in this team, continuing to put a few more pieces into their puzzle. With the return of Bob Sanders, and their receiving corp back at full health, this team could be better then last season. Their draft did a good job of giving depth to a defense that has been getting better each season. Their receiving corp is very deep, and behind Bailey and Goodman, I don't think we have the DB's to be able to outsmart Manning.

The game: We are lucky to be facing them at Mile High, and with the Colts just returning from playing the Manning Bowl, it could be interesting, but while we put a good game last season, much closer than the score showed, I still can't see use really upsetting the Colts. It's hard to imagine Manning having another bad game against us, and looking back, if he hadn't thrown 3 interceptions, it wouldn't have been nearly as close. Our defense is improved in my opinion, so we will still be able to not let Manning control the field, but few teams can keep up with the Colts offense, it took the Saints to finally put them down. I think with luck on our side, we might be able to beat them, but I think we used up all our luck the last time we played them. While I like us to be so lucky, I really can't see it happening. Manning will likely have quite a bit of time in the pocket, considering he has a great offensive line, and when Manning has time, he's almost perfect. L

Week 4 Tennessee (away):

Free agency and the draft: Tennessee have lost some players in FA, but to me by picking up Derrick Morgan in the draft will add a great defense player for a defense that has been falling part since their great team a few years ago. A few seasons ago losing LenDale White would have been a big loss, but not too much now, unless of course if Chris Johnson gets hurt. Other then Morgan, their moves and picks are adding depth but don't make an immediate impact. This team is just too shallow outside of Chris Johnson to be able to compete.

The game: This team was pretty hyped at the beginning and end of last season, but that may have been to either the past seasons record, or to a soft schedule. I like Chris Johnson, but I don't think he can carry a Vince Young lead offense for very long. This team doesn't have the tools of defense anymore to stop any decent offense. The Titans are often the talk of underachievement, and that will continue next season, like last season. While Young is dangerous and explosive, he is also very unreliable for most of the game, and with a defense in transition, this team has too many variables to be reliable winners. With what they showed in the preseason, I'm not as concerned as I was before, Young struggle a lot, and their defense was hardly threatening, especially in the secondary. Their offensive line is one of the worst in the league and that won't help Johnson or Young out much. If we can contain Johnson from making any big runs, I think our offense will overpower their weakening defense. It might be tough, but I don't think home field will be enough to overcome the big problems this team has. W

Week 5 Baltimore (away):

Free agency and the draft: The Ravens have had a fantastic off season, fixing almost everything that was wrong with their team. Many viewed their defense on the decline, but after this draft by picking Kindle, Jones and Cody, this team has built a foundation for another decade of defense. And by bringing in Boldin, this team gave Joe Flacco another weapon to work with. Picking up Ed Dickson, and Dennis Pitta at TE will be a good long term answer to when Todd Heap begins to slip. With the arrival of Boldin, I think this team is deadly on both sides of the ball.

The game: This team has been slowly rising and then falling from grace, the picture of inconsistent play, roasting the Patriots in the playoffs, but getting swept by the Bengals in some embarrassing games. But if Ray Rice can stay strong and Flacco do a good job of keeping the passing game going, I believe their defense is just too strong and they will keep us at bay. With Boldin on their team now, I think their offense has enough weapons to keep defensive coordinators very nervous. But the fact that it's in Baltimore gives the Ravens the edge on a pretty close match. This team has just too much skill, and with a great coaching staff, and plenty of experience, they will be one of the teams to beat in the AFC. If this were to come at another time in the season, it wouldn't be quite so bad, but after tough games against Indy and the Titans, going into Baltimore, I think we just won't be able to win here. I'm looking to see Ray Rice have a great game, his elusiveness will allow him to make the most of our defensive line, as well as on screens and short routes. L

Week 6 New York Jets (home):

Free agency and the draft: Not enough can be said about the moves the Jets have made, they are bringing in everyone and their dog. This team has added, Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, Sheppard and Jason Taylor to their defense, and while losing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, they add LT, Santonio Holmes, and they draft running backs Joe McKnight and John Conner. Adding Ducasse also give the shaky Sanchez some more time to throw. This team has built itself the best defense I have seen in a long time.

The game: The Jets have made some big moves this off-seasons, and their defense has become even better, if that possible, with the pick up of Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson and Jason Taylor. Mark Sanchez must improve next season, and with a good running game, and adding some new offensive weapons, this offense could turn out well, but don't look for a high scoring game. During the preseason, I really didn't see anything out of the new or old offensive play makers, and I think this teams offense might struggle more then people expect. But with a strong defense, I believe they can shut our running game down and force Orton into situations he doesn't want to be in, playing catchup. With Cromartie and Wilson now in with the recently resigned Revis, I think Orton will do his best able to overcome this team, but I don't think he'll be able to, this defense is just too good. I don't think the Jets will be as good as most think, their offense will struggle without Washington and Jones, but their defense will keep them in any game, and I think it will outmatch us. This is a toss-up game, but I think it goes their way. This will make for a tough loss in the middle of the season. L

Week 7 Oakland (home):

Free agency and the draft: The Raiders, surprisingly, have played it pretty smart this off season and with the draft. Kyle Boller gives some more security at the shaky position of QB, but for them the best FA pick up was Jason Campbell, who is the best quarterback on that roster, and by adding McClain, Walter McFadden and Houston to an already strong defense, this team will be much better next season, if they can keep it together. Al Davis also got lucky to pick Bruce Campbell in the later round, and by adding Jared Veldeer they give themselves some more room to breath behind their offensive line. They played well in the preseason, but I just see too man questions to give them a lock at beating us.

The game: At home, we have a strong chance of taking down the Raiders, which is just what we need after two tough losses. They have made some improvements over last season, outside of an unusually quiet and safe draft, but I don't think they will have enough luck on their side to keep things solid. Their strong defense will not be able to overcome an average offense, and while Campbell is a big improvement at quarterback, I don't think they will be able to get much going at Mile High. Look for a pep talk from the captains before this game, similar to Dawkins player meeting last season, to get us back on track. Our defense will be looking to make a statement about physical football, and Orton will be trying to rebound after the Jets game.W

Week 8 San Francisco (away):

Free agency and the draft: By bringing in Ted Ginn Jr. San Fran adds another weapon to a great special teams unit and a decent receiver to a shallow receiving corp. But outside of swapping Shaun Hill out and bringing in David Carr, which didn't change much really, not much happened in FA. But luckily they were blessed with a lot of picks in the top 3 rounds of the draft, picking up some key pieces for Singletary to work with this next season. Mays, who has yet to prove he can play at an NFL level, will be a solid player for them, where ever he ends up playing. And by adding Iupati and Davis to their OL, Frank Gore will have a bit more room to run. Their late round picks, won't immediately start, but add depth to their offense. Picking up Brian Westbrook only makes this teams offense even better.

The game: This game takes place in London, so it's more of an neutral game rather than an away game. I like what the 49niners have done, and it's hard to bet against them. They have a solid offense, and a very good defense. While Gore may try to carry the day for San Francisco, especially with their shiny new offensive line, I don't think their offense is at the point where it can dominate a team. I want to say this will be a defensive game, I get the feeling the offenses will get a chance to shine here, but it will come down to defensive play and key turnovers. I think it will be a very close game, and it will likely come down to a key play, either by the offense or a turnover by the defense that changes the momentum of the game I think Orton will outplay Alex Smith, but I think it won't be pretty for either quarterback. Coming off a big win in Oakland, Denver will play with confidence, and should be able to handle the Niners across the pond. Andre Goodman is my man in this game, no idea why, but I just get a feeling, and I hate it when it happens. W

Week 9

Heading into our bye, a record of 5-3 isn't fantastic, but some of the toughest games are behind us. Looking forward, the team will need to focus to take on San Diego both times after the bye. The Broncos should be playing with some swagger about now, especially if they can get the wins over San Francisco and Oakland, but even more if we can get a win against the Jets, Colts, or Ravens. but just remember that momentum before the bye doesn't always care over afterwords, see last season.

Week 10 Kansas City (home):

Free agency and the draft: Kansas City had a lot of picks to play with this draft, especially in the first 3 rounds, and fixed a few hole there. Eric Berry should be starting, either at CB or safety on week 1, and will give a little security to their weak secondary, which they also  addressed by drafting Arenas. But the strangest move for me was, after bringing in Thomas Jones, you go and draft McCluster. Having so many glaring needs, to take a back after having two who can carry the load alone seems strange to me, but after watching him in the preseason at wide receiver or in the back field, he is an explosive player. 

The game: At home we should be able to beat the Chiefs, and even though it's been a while since week 17, the thought of Jamaal Charles running over our defense will still be on our players minds, expect a lot of film of that day to be shown to our defense. They have improved over last season, creating a great running back tandem by picking up Thomas Jones, as well as using Dexter McCluster, but I don't think our defense will let us have a week 17 repeat. I don't see their defense being enough to stop a decent offense, I would have been only a little worried about their secondary, but by picking up Eric Berry, as well as improved play by Brandon Flowers, it may be a bit tough to dominate this defense, but in the end I see too many problems with this team to give them this game, and watch for Orton will out gun Matt Cassel, again. W

Week 11 San Diego (away):

Free agency and the draft: San Diego let go Cromartie, Jamal Williams, and LT, and really didn't act much in FA outside of signing Donald Strickland,  but made some good moves in the draft. Picking up Ryan Mathews is a great move, giving them a back who can run it up the middle, something Sproles isn't built to do. Donald Butler brings some hope that San Diego's defense can continue to grow, and by nabbing Cam Thomas in the draft, they fix their hole in the middle and not sink after losing some key pieces. But by week 11, the hold outs should be back in practice, hopefully for them, and while they may be a bit rusty, their return will make a big difference.

The game: San Diego in November and December are unbeatable, no question, especially at home. They have won a record 18 games in a row in December, against some really good teams. While they have made a lot of changes, mostly letting people go, I still think they will be a tough team to beat, especially late in the season. By picking up Ryan Mathews, the Chargers balance out their offensive attack after losing LT, making it even harder to shut them down. After watching the preseason, the Chargers offense seems to be getting along fine, actually very well, and Mathews seems to be really stepping up. There defense is far more suspect, with the loss of Cromartie and cutting Nathan Vasher, their secondary is pretty weak, as is their defensive line. Look for a high scoring game as both teams pick on their opponents weakness. Despite the losses of Cromartie and LT, they are still one of the teams to beat, and going into Qualcomm will be tough, I just can't see us winning there, especially if the Chargers are hot, which they usually are in the winter. Orton will play very well, as will our running backs, look for this game to be a shootout. L

Week 12 St. Louis (home):

Free agency and the draft: Drafting Bradford at #1 gives them the quarterback of the future, but unless they can protect him, it will be 2009 all over again, for both Bradford and the Rams. By drafting Roger Saffold, they have in place a young OL, which will struggle against good defenses but will be an improvement over last season. And by cutting Boller and Bulger, the Rams kind of shove Bradford in front of a moving train with only Steven Jackson to save him. They have lost a lot of 2nd and 3rd string players, and if injures set in, this team will struggle.

The game: Ah just what we needed, the Rams are rebuilding, but have done little so far to change their current sad state, I can't think of any reason on this Earth for us to lose this game, unless of course Steven Jackson pulls a huge game on us like KC did at the end of the season, but I really can't see that happening with all the changes we've made to the defensive line. At this point in the season, Sam Bradford will be black and blue, if not injured from the weakness in that offensive line, so if we can stop the running back, this game could turn out well. This team just hasn't done enough to make itself a competitor.  W

Week 13 Kansas City (away):

Free agency and the draft: See week 10

The game: For me, this was one of the toughest games to pick, we have won less then a handful of games out of the last 18 games at Arrowhead in December, and they are a team that looks to be a bit more dangerous this next season, especially in the winter. I like what we did last season there, and I really want to say we can do it again, but it's hard to call, and if we face them in Arrowhead this late in the season, I think we might just face an off-week, and KC is known to take advantage of a bad day. Tough to call, but I like to be conservative here, the Chiefs are going to be fighting, and I think it might just be too much. L

Week 14 Arizona (away):

Free agency and the draft: Starting your off season by losing Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and Antrel Rolle is never a good sign, but the Cardinals have made some good moves to help patch up some other holes. By bringing in Joey Porter and Kerry Rhodes, they manage to find a quick fix, if only short term, to their defense, and by bringing in Dan Williams, O'Brien Schofield and Daryl Washington add some youth. Bringing in Derek Anderson seems like a smart move now, and he should add a vertical element to their passing game, and John Skelton is an interesting pick up, not to mention, UDFA Max Hall's great preseason performances. Whomever starts has a brand new toy in Andre Roberts, a great receiver who should start as soon as possible.

The game: This team has lost a lot, and done only patch work to fill the voids left by the departure of key players, the most important of which was Kurt Warner. While still a decent team, the once powerful offense will not be able to make up for this now weakened team overall, and I don't think they will be able to match up against us well at, even home. Arizona at this point may be fighting for it's playoff life, but having Derek Anderson at the helm will not be enough, even at home. And after watching the preseason, Anderson brings a spark to that offense and is able to go long and make the most of some of the offensive weapons that Arizona has. Fitz will still catch whatever is thrown his way, but this team looks too soft to compete against an aggressive team, something Denver is striving to be. Arizona has tendency to lose games it shouldn't late in the season, this will be one of those games. W

Intermission: Okay at this point, we are 8-5 and in full gear to not finish 2010 like the past two seasons, the Chargers are probably in a similar boat, 8-5 or 9-4, going strong near the end, just shy of clinching the division, so at this point it's make it or break it.

Week 15 Oakland (away):

Free agency and the draft: see week 7

The game: This season I think we will manage to keep it together and contain the unpredictable Raiders. Last season they won some surprising games against good teams, Denver, Philly, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Not this season, Oakland has done a lot to become a better football team, but like the Seahawks and the Rams, the are just lacking a few pieces, we won't repeat last seasons lose again. This late in the season, I see the Broncos having a lot of steam heading into the post season, but it is so hard to say we can sweep the Raiders, I'd like to, but they have improved in every area since last season, so I struggle to see us winning this one in Oakland, the Black Hole will get us.  Our offensive line will be beat up, look for Orton to take his fair share of sacks. L

Week 16 Houston (home):

Free agency and the draft: By bringing in Ben Tate, the Texans, now have a very solid running attack, hopefully one that is more consistent and fumble free. Taking Kareem Jackson so early was surprising, but he will still make a good CB, and along with Sherrick McManis they get some help with their struggling defense. But hopefully by adding Earl Mitchell, they have found someone who can either start, of switch in and out on the defensive line. But outside of the draft, Houston has done little to help it's shaky situation.

The game: This is a hard team to figure out, losing to Jacksonville twice, then winning games agianst New England and the Bengals. With a lot of weapons on offense, Schaub and Johnson lead a powerful passing attack, and now they have 3 decent running backs in Sloan, Moats, and Tate, they have and will to struggle to live up to expectations. But if Schaub can pull a big day out of his offense, it will be hard to keep up with the Texans. While I want to say we'll win this it's hard to do, this team is dangerous and unpredictable. But, and that's one big but, we are at home here, coming off a lose, and if we can win here, we will still be in the hunt for the playoffs. It will depend on which Texans team shows up, but either way, I think we can pull this one out in a great game, out playoff lives depend on it. Look for a great game from our running backs, and look for a fired up linebacker corp to try and do their best Dumervil impression with a lot of sacks on Schaub. W

Week 17 San Diego (home):

via a.espncdn.com

Free agency and the draft: See week 11

The game: Could you ask for any better way to end the season, a huge way to conclude what might be one of the best seasons in while?  The Chargers have the longest winning streak in December, but December will be over, so maybe we can pull off some magic here. San Diego may be fighting for a 1st round bye, so they will come out fighting, making it tough to win. I have looked and looked, we now have the weapons on offense to compete a bit better then before, and with the changes to our DL, I hope we can match up, but Philip Rivers is a great quarterback. The Chargers have lost a lot of their weapons, and coming into Mile High, and not having Chris Simms as our starter automatically gives us a better chance then last season. At this point in the season, our defensive line will be worn out, having aged lineman is a nice thing, but come week 17, they won't be at peak levels, and watch for Mathews to take advantage of that. I think this will be a big game, and we will want to spoil the Chargers late season drive, but I just don't think we can beat San Diego here, man it's a tough call. Okay I can't make up my mind, this late in the season, the Chargers are on fire, but if our defense can survive to this game, I believe we now have the weapons to go toe to toe with San Diego. With a weak secondary, I think Orton will open it up in what may be his last game as a Bronco, and try to get us into the post-season. Whatever letter comes next has been changed who knows how many times, but here goes. L

Record: 9-7, A winning record, 2nd in the division!

Part 1 prediction: 10-6

Part 2 prediction: 10-6

Part 3 prediction: 10-6

I tried to make my explanations thorough, and hope I did a good job saying why we either won or loss. While this has a note that it can go +/- 1 game either way, I still see us having a winning year no matter what, we have made quite a few improvements. I was kind of surprised the record stayed the same during the the first three parts, but some wins and loses did get switched around. And now in my final prediction, I have us at 9-7 rather then 10-6. I do this, not because I feel we are worse then before, I think my hopes are improved, but I feel the teams we are playing against have just showed how good they are in the preseason, and I struggle to see us winning the same number of games. I would love to know what peoples analysis on games where they question my outcome so I can get a better feel from those who may follow those teams more closely. I know we finish 2-4 in the division, but we play in a more competitive division then most think, and it's not a sign of how bad we are, rather a sign of the quality of the other teams in our division. San Diego could easily be split, I really, really wanted that to happen, but every time I put a win in that week 17 game, I just kept getting that nagging feeling that I was wrong, so had to stick to my instincts. But I could see us winning that game, going 10-6, and possibly earning a wild card spot, but it was a toss up. I tried to keep the kool-aid out of this as much as possible.

Now I don't think we will make the playoffs, just because I feel there are other team that will be so close in the wild-card race, that I don't think 9-7 will be good enough. But 9-7 is far better then most expert put us at, and the first winning record in some time isn't something to be mad about. Also if we strong performances from our rookies, especially Decker and Thomas, it will go a long way in terms of respect, especially looking forward to 2011.

Your Predictions:

Like I said at the beginning, this prediction will be recorded and dug back up at the end of the season, and we'll see how well we did. So good luck.

Noted: The poll is closed, I tried opening it, as well as deleting it and remaking it, but permission has been denied. I have contacted John about it, but if any other staffer can fix this, that would be super.