Roster Analysis
by Nick Cast on Sep 6, 2010 4:00 AM MDT
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PrintOver the past 4 days, the Denver Broncos have cut nearly 22 players, signed 5 of those players back, and are probably not quite done yet. Yesterday, they were awarded RB Andre Brown from the New York Giants. This move comes as a result of LenDale White being lost for the season. Denver was also awarded OL Chris Clark who spent 2 years on Minnesota's practice squad. Now that the roster is set, the football season is about to begin. Before it does, let's take a position by position look at our roster. Where are the strengths and where are the weaknesses? I'll be grading the positions on a scale of 1-10. 1 being horrendous and 10 being excellent.
Quarterback
Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn
Analysis:
No surprises here. Every quarterback made the team. Kyle Orton has been nothing short of amazing this summer. He goes into the season being the unquestioned leader of the team. He finishes the pre season with 38 of 57 for 397 yards, 4 TD's, and 2 INT's. Orton averaged 7 yards per attempt. He finished with a 95.4 QB rating.
Brady had a rough pre season. He struggled heavily during the first 3 games before coming on strong during the last game. He finished with 32 of 56 for 334 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averaged 6 yards per attempt. He finished with a 73.1 QB rating.
Tim has had an up and down off season, but his flashes of brilliance are very encouraging. He averaged more yards per attempt then any QB. He attempted nearly 20 less passes then the other QB's, but still was 2nd in total yards. He finished with 25 of 39 for 344 yards, 2 TD's and 2 INT's. He averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. He finished with a 88.0 QB rating.
I believe Tim clearly out played Quinn. Tim should be the back up QB going into the season.
Overall Rating: 8
We have a very solid starter in Orton, and have up and coming talents in Tebow and Quinn. However, if Orton were to go down, we would surely struggle. Tim is still a rookie and has a ton of work to do. Quinn is very inconsistent and sporadic. I wouldn't feel comfortable if they had to be a starter in the event of an Orton injury. Orton is the most important player on the team. Without him, we don't have any chance of improving from last years record.
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Lance Ball, Andre Brown, LenDale White (IR)
We would be in really good shape if everyone was healthy. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Actually, it's quite the opposite. Knowshon injured his hamstring the 1st day of training camp. Buckhalter was injured the same day. The Denver Broncos signed LenDale White to come in and compete for playing time. He came in and was very solid, but he too succumbed to an injury. He tore his ACL in the final pre season game and will be out for the year. As we approach the 1st game of the season, Knowshon has yet to play since his injury, Buckhalter had limited play against the Vikings, and Andre Brown has yet to play with the Broncos. Lance Ball is the only running back to play this pre season and show that he can handle contributing during the season.
Lance Ball finishes the pre season with 23 attempts for 119 yards, 0 rushing TD's, but a 5.2 average. He also caught 5 passes for 39 yards and 1 TD. Andre Brown rushed 21 times for 95 yards, and 1 TD. He averaged 4.5 ypc for the New York Giants.
Overall Rating: 4
Injuries have ravaged this group. A team of Knowshon, Buckhalter, LenDale, and Ball would have been a studly group. Instead, we have an injured Knowshon, still recovering Buckhalter, newly signed Brown, and 1 healthy running back in Ball. The injuries in this group only increase the importance of Kyle Orton. Don't expect our team to start the season running. Expect us to start the year airing it out...a lot.
Wide Receivers
Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, Demayrius Thomas, Matthew Willis
Analysis:
It's a good thing that we have a bunch of solid receivers to compliment our terrible run game, or we would be in big trouble.
Here are our pre season stats for our receivers:
| Receiving Statistics | |||||
| Player | Rec | Yds | Yds/Rec | Long | TD |
| Eric Decker | 16 | 183 | 11.4 | 31 | 1 |
| Matt Willis | 13 | 263 | 20.2 | 39 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 10 | 143 | 14.3 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 16 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 18 | 1 |
As you can see, Decker, Willis, and Gaffney were the stars of the pre season. All of them had 10 receptions or more. They also all had over 11 yards per catch. Brandon Lloyd was close with 9 receptions for a 9.3 yards per catch. Eddie had just 6 catches, but averaged 10.5 yards per catch. Everyone but Gaffney scored a TD.
Overall Rating: 9
This is a great group of guys. Each of our guys has the potential to be a #1 any given weekend. Demayrius Thomas has not been able to stay healthy, but when he finally gets healthy, he will join the deepest receiver corps in the AFC West, if not the entire AFC. Our receivers would have one more player if Marques Branson had stayed healthy and wasn't released. It remains to be seen how Dan Gronkowski will be a factor, if at all, in the pass game.
Tight Ends
Daniel Graham, Richard Quinn, Dan Gronkowski
Analysis:
Truth is, there is no analysis on this group. Daniel Graham and Richard Quinn have both missed extended time during the pre season. The only 2 tight ends on our team that made a contribution during the pre season were Marques Branson and Riar Geer. Branson hurt his knee and was released while Geer is on the practice squad. If Marques had stayed healthy, I would feel okay about the position. Graham is a solid blocker and Branson could be the receiving threat. But Branson isn't on the team. The whole group of TE's have barely played for the Denver Broncos this pre season. Gronkowski was with the Detroit Lions until we traded Phonz for him. Gronkowski caught 7 passes for 80 yards for Detroit. The people over at Pride of Detroit were fond of him. They said we got a solid player with good potential.
Overall Rating: 4
We have some big concerns at this position. If Daniel Graham is healthy, then he is enough to make this group a 5. We don't use the tight ends much in the passing game, and Graham and Quinn are both solid blockers. However, we don't know if Graham is healthy, or if he is going to stay healthy. Quinn has had ankle problems. So we better hope that Gronkowski is a real player or we might be in big trouble. For a team that likes using 2 TE sets, this area has me concerned. It's a good thing we have Riar Geer on the PS. If worst comes to worse, we could pull him up to the main roster. He wasn't terrible in the pre season.
Offensive Line
Ryan Clady, Zane Beadles, J.D. Walton, Chris Kuper, Ryan Harris, Stanley Daniels, Eric Olsen, D'Anthony Batiste, Russ Hochstein, Chris Clark
Analysis:
Good news is, when healthy, we have one of the strongest offensive lines. Problem is, when they aren't healthy, we are a mess and unfortunately, we aren't healthy. Clady is still coming back from a partially torn patellar tendon, Kuper has been banged up all off season, and Harris recently had an ankle injury. Behind our starters are a bunch of players who haven't showed a whole lot. Hochstein is probably the best depth guy that we have. He can play center or guard. D'Anthony Batiste was terrible this off season. Eric Olsen was better, but not by much. Stanley Daniels has done some good things, but he struggles in pass protection. He is a pretty decent run blocker though. Chris Clark is new, but Vikings reports have said he is terrible.
Overall Rating: 5
The only reason we are rated this high is because our starting offensive line is so good. The depth is terrible. Despite using 3 picks on the offensive line in the 2010 draft, we have a ton of holes behind our starters. Zane Beadles is the only player who could attempt to play tackle and have any kind of success. I think we could survive with our back up guards. Bring Daniels in on run plays and Hoch in on pass plays. Other then that, we better pray that Clady and Harris stay healthy, or we are in for a very, very long year.
D-Line
Ryan McBean, Jamal Williams, Justin Bannan, Marcus Thomas, Ronald Fields, Le Kevin Smith
Analysis:
McBean was able to hold off veteran Jarvis Green for the starting LDE position. He was a roster cut. Jamal and Justin were brought in during the off season to enforce the D-line. They are going to have to do a lot more then that. They are going to have to be the key contributors on the D-line if we want to succeed this year. Marcus Thomas, Ronald Fields, and Le Kevin Smith need to step it up. They are the only depth we have. We are going into the year with only 6 d-lineman. We only need 3 for the 3-4 defense, but injuries can and do happen as we know very well. McBean has had a good off season. We better hope Jamal has something left in the tank or D-line is going to be a big problem this year.
Overall Rating: 6
It's an interesting group of guys. We have solid DE's in McBean and Bannan. I hope Jamal has something left in the tank. Marcus Thomas needs to step it up in the worst way. Our biggest problem last year was that our D-line faded out. I fear that our group could do the same. We could use 1 more D-lineman, but the starters are solid. 17 games is a lot of plays for 6 guys though... We had 7 last year and still faded out.
Linebackers
Jarvis Moss, D.J. Williams, Joe Mays, Mario Haggan, Wesley Woodyard, Robert Ayers, Jason Hunter
Analysis:
This group had so much potential, but with the loss of Doom, it just isn't the same. Ayers has had an amazing off season. He has looked flat out dominant. Moss has come in and stepped it up from what we are used to seeing. Mays and Woodyard are very solid back ups. Hunter has been transitioned into the 3-4 in the past 2 weeks and has showed some flashes. My biggest problem is that we are going into the season with just 3 OLB...Although, we do have Kevin Alexander on the PS who was decent in camp.
Overall Rating: 6
This group will rise and fall by the play of 2 players: Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss. If we want our defense to be dominant, we need these 2 to step it up. I believe Ayers is primed for a huge year, but Moss is a bit of a question mark. He has shown flashes of pass rush brilliance, but he has also struggled against the run. Jason Hunter will also play a significant role this year. I do not like having just 3 OLB going into the season, but at least those 3 OLB look to be solid. I did not like the move to drop Baraka Atkins for Chris Carter. I do believe that at some point, we will cut 1 OL and bring up Kevin Alexander to the main roster.
Defensive Backs
Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, Perrish Cox, Syd'Quan Thompson, Nate Jones, Cassius Vaughn, Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill, Darcel McBath, David Bruton
Analysis: This is the strongest group on our roster by far. We have great starters with great depth. Cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman have each shown they are still dominant during the pre season. Perrish Cox and SydQuan Thompson have both shown immense potential, particularly Cox. Nate Jones hasn't shown much this pre season, but he is supposed to be a solid nickel back. Vaughn is a great special teams player. Dawkins and Hill should be solid. McBath has an arm injury that concerns me, but hopefully he comes back soon. Bruton is a punshing tackler and an excellent ST player.
Overall Rating: 9
I don't see much weakness in this unit. Our starting CB's make the best starting CB tandem in the West, and our CB depth (Cox, Jones, Predator, Vaughn) is unparalleled. We are immensely strong in that area. The only reason this unit isn't a 10 is because of safety. Dawkins and Hill are solid player, but if they were to get hurt, I would be uneasy. McBath's trouble with his arm scares the living daylights out of me. He has had injury problems ever since his college days at Texas Tech. Bruton looks like a better ST player then a safety. I've seen him struggle in coverage. Nevertheless, we arguably have the best DB's from top to bottom in the whole division.
Special Teamers
Matt Prater, Britton Colquitt, Lonnie Paxton, Perrish Cox, Squid (Predator), Cassius Vaughn, ST coverage players
Analysis:
We appear to be much better in this area. Prater looks to continue on his bounce back year in 09 with another solid year in 2010. Colquitt is a million times better then Mitch Berger. In 14 pre season punts, he has averaged 50.9 yards per punt. You truly can't appreciate that number until you have had Mitch Berger on your team.
On top of that, we have the best returners in the division. Cox was the best college returner. He already has a big run back this pre season. Squid (Predator) is the player that has shocked me most. I can't decide if I want Cox or Predator as the starting punt returner. Predator has probably shown the most ability in the punt game. Every punt he fields features multiple broken tackles. In 7 punts, Predator is averaging 16.3 yards per punt. Cox is averaging 22.3 but on just 3 punts. Cassius Vaughn is arguably our best kick returner. In 6 returns, he has averaged 28.5 yards per return. That is nearly 10 yards more then the next guy (Predator with 19.8 yards per return).
Our special teams coverage also appears to be very strong. With players Cassius Vaughn, David Bruton, Joe Mays, Wesley Woodyard, Darcel McBath, and many more on the coverage unit, we have a ton of hard hitting play makers. I expect a couple forced fumbles from these guys.
Overall Rating: 10
We are solid through and through. There isn't anything left to say that I haven't already said. Prater looks good, Colquitt looks great, Paxton is a great long snapper, and our ST players are studs. I expect great things from this unit.
Final Thoughts:
We have the potential to make a playoff run. The only thing stopping us is injuries. Our QB is solid, our WR our great, and our pass defense will be one of the best. Our biggest questions come in the RB, OL, DL, and LB. If Knowshon and Buck can stay healthy, our run game will be strong. If our starting OL stays healthy, our entire offense will be a force. If our DL can stay healthy and if our depth steps it up, our run defense will improve. If Ayers and Moss step up, we will be able to survive without Doom. We have the talent, but we have a lot of questions. Too many "ifs" for comfort. If for some chance those "ifs" turn in our favor, we will be one fun team to watch. If not, well, I have my draft prospects already lined up.
Early 2011 Draft Positions of Need:
OT Depth
D-Line
Complimentary RB
TE
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Nice summary,my question is
How isClark an upgrade over Polumbus?
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by littletinybroncos on Sep 6, 2010 4:22 AM MDT reply actions
I have been watching Chris Clark in every pre season game.
The Vikes really have no one to back-up our left tackle. Clark was given that chance. Every game he failed to do good work. Penalties, Missed blocks, Lack of Strength. I and others blasted his failed attempts. But that said. I have maintained all preseason that Chris Clark has a great first step and good technique. He can play the left tackle spot. He just needs to get it. Whatever it is. Whatever magic a coach can bring out. If he gets it he can be very good.
After all my bashing I was still hoping he could qualify for our PS. Unfortunately he didn’t and we had larger O-Line back up needs than OT.
Good luck with Chris.
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by lifelongvike on Sep 6, 2010 6:48 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks for the analysis
The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese in the trap.
thanks for that analysis lifelongvike
appreciate it.
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ditto, thanks for honest comments
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
also
Clark doesn’t have to meet the standards we’d normally apply to his inclusion on our roster. His acquisition looks like a temporary move to address depth problems. We don’t have any LTs besides Clady, and it’s not a position that you leave without a backup.
He may eventually stay as a PS member but all he needs to do for now is protect the QB if called upon in an emergency.
Also — (I’ll post this below, too): reserve strength at LT may be best found AFTER final cuts. It’s a way of bolstering your roster through using the rest of the NFL’s players. I call this the “soft roster.” Some positions — such as RB, TE or LB — are so plentiful that it’s easier to scavenge the waivers during the cut to 53 than attempt to bring enough into camp. There are so many players available at certain positions and so many teams have an excess at those same positions that it’s easier to watch the ‘stacked’ teams and take their rejects. And, moreover, we’re only looking for reserve strength and projects are often a luxury that teams can’t afford, so those stacked teams are like a farm league for us.
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
by Colinski on Sep 6, 2010 4:29 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
we only need him as long as Harris is out.
as soon as Harris returns, Beadles can return to being a backup LT
by black_knight101 on Sep 7, 2010 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Polumbus compared to Clark?
Clark has an easier name to spell, and we haven’t soured on watching him (yet). That would seem to be about it, unfortunately, at least from the first analysis. I suspect that McD/X were hoping for something better on the waiver wire when they let Polumbus go.
quite true
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
thanks littletinybroncos
I have no idea. We will see in the coming days/weeks
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An extra draft need
Depending on how this group comes together, I’d argue we need some linebacker depth pretty badly next year. Inside or out, but mostly out.
Ah yes
ILB should be on the list.
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yep....that's for real
by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 6, 2010 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions
Believe me, I know exactly what I'm looking for
It’s best for me to go vague with the draft because I could go all day talking about the 2011 draft if someone gets me started. I figured I would save all that good draft stuff for the off season.
Yes, we do need another LB
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Can't wait
I could talk for those same hours with you. Looking forward to the offseason. Uh, but I should be excited about the regular season first!
by BroncosBassist on Sep 6, 2010 6:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Very good analysis in my opinion.
Let me add a couple of things….
1. I would add another category and I would call it “coaching” or “play calling.” It is obvious to me that McD’s play calling is much better this year and he seems to have progressed past that rookie coach learning curve. I liked the mixture of run/pass plays called this preseason and noticed more creativity. I would give him an “8.”
2. Another observation I have is our overall lack of team speed. Don’t get me wrong, our cornerbacks, wide-receivers, and a couple of running backs are speedy but we are pretty slow in many other areas. Our defensive front seven is VERY slow and has a problem with speedy running backs. I am not sure who to blame our porous run defense on more, the LB’s or the D-line.
3. I also wonder if our lack of a good run offense is because of our scheme or our personnel. Without looking at statistics, I believe that the Patriots system has always provided a strong passing game and a weak running game. Our pass protection always seems to be good though. Once again, scheme or personnel?
For your point #2. That’s a pretty clear and consciously made trade off. McD prefers larger and stronger plays like Haggan, Bannon and Jamal Williams so the sacrifice for speed is an obvious one.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
I disagree.
I doubt McD looks at it as a “trade off.” I think he is trying to assemble the best football players at each position relative to his scheme. I don’t think that precludes a faster front seven. Remember how high he was on Sean Weatherspoon (ILB) prior to the draft. He is more of a speedy undersized ILB.
The Defense is slow in the base package
Like McGeorge said, this is by design to be stout against the run. It is a trade-off in the sense that in general when you gather bigger and stronger players you are missing out on faster players. There are exceptions to this rule and you always attempt to get them on your team, but in the case of a guy like Weatherspoon they are almost always found high in the draft.
However I don’t believe the team lacks speed in the defense as a whole, because when they play in the nickel (more pass oriented) they improve their team speed dramaticaly. Ayers, Moss, and Hunter playing as DEs bring much more athleticism to the defensive line. DJ and Woodyard provide some speed and athleticism for the Linebackers and then the secondary has plenty of quickness and speed (although Dawkins is not ahtletic for a safety but his timing is still fine because of his experience).
You make good points....
I disagree with a little though.
1. I understand your “trade-off” comments but I don’t think it is an either/or type of deal. It isn’t as formulaic as you imply.
2. I am going to disagree about overall defensive team speed. We have more problems with smaller speedy backs than we do power backs. Speedier tight ends, without me looking at any statistics, seem to cause us fits as well. I tend to think this is a speed issue, though I concede it may be a unique match-up exploitation as well.
3. In my opinion, Dawkins is super athletic. The dude was flying all over the field last year! He seemed to be in the air half the time trying to tackle guys.
I have no idea what McD looks at? He looks at Tebow and sees a future franchise QB (based on Tim’s preseason play – I feel much better about this), he looked at the Phonz like a major stud CB in 2009 and he didn’t like Winborn (a very fast LB, and terrible too).
If you are going to play guys like Haggan, Bannon, Williams, McBean, Thomas, Ayers, and Hunter…. you are going to have a slow and powerful front 7. There is a trade off. The fast and powerful players like Patrick Willis are very few and far between. TEs should be a big problem for us again in 2010, but we should be good in the redzone on D, like we were in preseason.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
by McGeorge on Sep 6, 2010 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice
Hate to chime in late on a conversation, but you hit the nail on the head for me McGeorge. Sometimes McD’s decisions are perplexing. It seems that he has better addressed the WR and DB weakness than the D-line and LB weakness.
While it is easy to say “we need to draft a Patrick Willis type player,” they are truly a rare breed. Personally, I like the beef we have brought in up front, hope they occupy more blockers in the run game and pray we draft some D-line and OLB soon. With all of that said, I still feel our TE depth is the most pronounced weakness.
by BroncoWeimer on Sep 6, 2010 12:59 PM MDT up reply actions
When McDaniels was hired he said he wanted tough, versitale, smart, high character players. He never said he wanted speed. So we are getting bigger/tougher players.
Shanny favored speed, as do the Colts. Different philosophies. But you are right, he is trying to make our team bigger/tougher.
This is also why we kept running up the gut on 3rd/4th and short last year. Tough teams run up the middle and make it on these plays. We weren’t tough/big enough to do this (Weigman/Hamilton) so he is also trying to make the OL bigger as well.
Once a short yardage run game is established then I think you’ll see some play action mixed in on those situations.
Amen
I agree 100% . His play calling after the 1st 6 game sucked to be honest and I felt that was the majority reason our O went so far down hill. Now other than all the Buck screen passes we did not over do anything this preseason like the bubble screens every 3rd play last year. (Oh and the screens kept working so I say go until they dont) If he keeps up this type of play calling, throwing the ball over the middle and down the sidelines for PI penalties, we will improve dramatically. That said, unless we develop some real plays to get our TE’s involved down the field, we will not be as productive as we all hope.
Guys, you are trying to compare 1-2 quarters for 4 games of pre-season.
- the play calling is ONLY for player evaluation. We can not really say that is better or worse than last year.
- we have big stout dl, with pretty big backers. If containment breaks down up front, like aany other team, you had better have some speedy recovery. Starters we do not but the backups (nickle and dime) have exceptional speed.
- McD ran 10 times in the Cin game. Here was looking at pass evaluations. In the Min game he ran a bunch, again evaluating players.
At this point we can not rate our run defense. Yes I know you look at stats that say our 162/g is 32nd. BUT that is rating the pre-season (which IMO has no value).
SWG..I do agree for discussion that thru the pre-season they pass protected better.
by DLMyers on Sep 6, 2010 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
thanks swg
1. I think the coaching has been better also. We have seen some good play calling IMO
2. I think that we need more speed too. We would certainly look quicker with Doom….but the D-line is full of strong, but slow guys. We should be targeting a quick DE in the draft…Adrian Clayborn anyone?
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Well done Nick...
Here’s to getting/staying healthy!
- "I don't want Pro Bowl Players - I want Super Bowl Players."
-Marv Levy-
thanks BroncoSense
amen to that!
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Good read. Not sure our ST is a 10, but they had a very good preseason. Love all the touchbacks.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
thanks McG
Prater has looked really good other then that 1 missed FG. He has boomed kicks out the end of the endzone a few times.
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good stuff.
DLine has got be our biggest question mark….I didn’t see anything in preseason that showed me the front 7 is going to fare any better against the run than the late 2009 run d
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thanks Tim
D-Line certainly concerns me. I think the overall talent is better then last year, but we still don’t have a lot of depth. I would like 1 more D-Lineman on the roster to make 7. I don’t see 6 guys playing the whole year on a high level without fading out or injuries, but I guess it’s possible.
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on the 6 DLs
You should recall that Baker hardly played and LK Smith was injured for a while. We have — in effect — as many DLs or more than last year.
Another added factor was the weak run stopping capability of our R-DEs, which contributed to our overall weakness. We appear to be fortified somewhat (on paper) in our run stopping and this should decrease the amount of situations in which the DL is tired.
I think our mix-and-matchability on the DL should help us distribute the load as long as we stay healthy. I hope that we can get some contributions from the LBs to lessen the burden on the DL, and the big LBs are DLs on some plays anyways so this is a reasonable hope.
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
For the sake of comparison
how was our run D during preseason last year? Anyone remember?
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Nice Post
I agree with most of this, but I am less concerned with how the Broncos look at RB.
From all reports, Moreno was healthy enough to play at Minnesota last week and had it been a regular season game, he would have gone.
I would like to have seen our backs be healthy enough to get a few more live reps during preseason, but both Moreno and Buck should be full speed by week 1 at Jax. Ball looked good during preseason. Were it not for the injury to White I’d actually quite high on our RBs.
I need to see how Brown pans out as a short yardage back before I pass final judgment, but at the moment, RB is not at the top of my list of concerns.
Thanks DoubleJay
Well, Knowshon hadn’t practiced at any point up until the Vikings game. By that I mean, he hadn’t been hit since the Vikings game. He practiced 1 time I believe with the no contact jersey on. It would be a little reckless for us not to be a little concerned about Knowshon.
Buck is past the 30 hump and going to deteriorate from here. Adding 1 more complementary back with Knowshon would make our offense a whole lot better especially considering Knowshon has yet to stay healthy for any length of time.
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I can see where you are coming from. I guess we’ll have to wait to hear how much they let him do in practice this week.
My assumption is that he has had plenty of time to heal up and should be fine for week 1 and that the Broncos are just choosing to be cautious and not put him at risk while getting more reps for bubble players during preseason (similar to how Jax has been treating MJD).
If I am wrong and it ends up being a lingering thing, I’ll gladly own up to my error.
I'm actually very high on Brown
His size/speed combo was the highest in his draft class, which portends very good things about his ability to succeed at the NFL level, if he can get the finer nuances of the game (blocking, etc.) down. Being behind Bradshaw/Jacobs/Ware/Johnson on the NYG depth chart is not a horrible thing.
My compliments on the article, but I think you wanted a "complemenary RB" :)
I pretty much agree with your assessments, Nick. We are still a few pieces away from having the team we need even without the injuries (DL/LB and OL depth are my primary areas of concern), but we are moving n the right direction. As a guy that has viewed the McD model of team building with favor, I am very nervous about this season. If the injuries heal, and few new ones occur, we should do well enough. If things on that front keep going the way they have since TC started, we are deep in the brown stinky stuff.
isn’t there supposed to be a “t” in complementary?
We need 1 more solid draft and free agency period before we are competing for the West. I expect us to be around 8-8 this year. When healthy, we are above 8 wins. When we aren’t, we are below 8. We shall see.
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"t"?, we don't need no stinkin' "t"......guess I can't type as well as critique, eh? :D
1 more year should do it, I totally agree. After that, if the the phrase “just a player or two short” is uttered should actually mean something.
Depth this, depth that
Great post, but I can’t remember a time when Denver fans were so concerned about depth. I do remember when Shanny fielded an entire team of backups in starters clothing.
Depth is something that is hard to have in this league. The only reason we’re stressed about it is because of the injury bug. Out depth is far better this year than last and everybody is freaking out. Relax – if injuries hit any team they’re more than likely in a lot of trouble – look at the Ravens at CB. If SD loses their LT or one of their WRs its in trouble (they kept like four WRs!).
We have some solid starters and if we can put it all together we should have a pretty solid season. My number one concern is our run defense. For some strange reason we can’t put it together.
Why does Madden suck at ranking the Broncos so much?
Not on the O-line
our depth on the o-line is terrible and sounds like we brought someone in to improve who is terrible. As a thinking man hahah that tells me just how bad our depth is if we get someone elses cast offs and they are better than what we have.
Our starting O-Line is studly.
And even with injuries our o-line is better than some teams.
Why does Madden suck at ranking the Broncos so much?
It only takes a few plays (maybe just one) with Batiste on the field for Orton to end up in the emergency room. With an injury to Clady or Harris, our O-line is god awful at one spot.
Do you think our starters (overall) are better than 50% of the other teams in the NFL, 33%, 85%, etc. It’s a serious question.
Denver: 32-32 until we're not.
Well...
It is a fair question and I think it is way up there if our starters stay healthy.
Most places have us ranked somewhere near the middle. I’d say we’re top 10 in pass blocking for sure. Probably somewhere in the middle for run blocking.
I’d say we’re in the top 75% overall, but not top 85%. Maybe in a few years.
Why does Madden suck at ranking the Broncos so much?
Our tackles are in the top tier if healthy.
Kuper is probably above average.
But then you have 2 rookies and who knows how good they will be.
So overall, I’d say our line is about average (call it 60% given importance of tackle position) but if we get injury, it drops really fast.
But then again, when did our team have great depth in the OL? Or is there a team in the NFL that does? Seems like OL get injured at a lower rate than most other positions so you get good starters (like we had in Nalen/Hamilton/Lepsis) and hope they stay healthy.
someone made a key point on Friday..Broncos will look at PS eligiable tackles
until they find a suitable bu. Reason, with the current injuries, they can not line up a scout team OL. Notice tere are no OL on PS
Depth is important
because we are a team that is being hit by the injury bug and being hit hard.
Our depth at o-line is scary and not in the good way. We have no tackles other then Beadles that I would be confident in putting in.
Our starters are great, but with the injuries that have been occurring, we need solid depth or we will struggle greatly this year.
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Rec #7
Elway’s number. Yep.
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Thanks Sayre
Mile High Salute to #7. A man in a league of his own.
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Pre-season run defense
is not indicative of what our regular season team is capable of. Good or bad.
I can’t understand why everyone is assuming we have a terrible run-d based off our preseason games.
First off, teams do not play with the schemes they plan on using during the regular season.
Second off, many starters don’t play much with the first team D during preseason (ie Bailey, Dawkins, our two best DB run stuffers).
Anytime you think “Hey this preseason game/stat tells me this”, remember that Detroit went 4-0 in preseason then went 0-16 during the regular season.
Of course it is just pre season
but you can and should take things from your starters in the pre season. The fact that Detroit went 4-0 in the pre season just means there backups were better then the other teams backups.
Our starting Run D has not been able to stop any starting RB. Jahvid Best made our Run D look Stupid. Now, we have been throwing out some vanilla defense, but the fact that our starters have been run over during pre season is a bad sign.
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Okay
I went and did the math for the first half runs against us in all our preseason games. I did not include quarterback scrambles.
Bengals, .5 ypc, yes point five.
Lions, 3.6 ypc (no bailey)
Steelers, 4.8 ypc (no dawk/bailey)
Vikings, 3.4 ypc (not really starting d)
So again, why the assumption that our Run D is terrible???
Against the Lions
We played our starters well into the 3rd quarter. Best ran 8 times for 49 yards and a 6.1 average. He killed us that game.
Look, the team has clearly thrown out some vanilla defense. However, we spend the majority of our off season trying to shore up the D-Line that killed us last year.
I would have liked to see better results in the pre season then what we did.
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We did not
play our first team D in the 3rd quarter. Go look at the play by play.
Players who made tackles in 3rd quarter:
L.Smith
J.Mays
C.Vaughn
A.Smith
S.Thompson
W.Woodyard
N.Jones
Not one of those players are 1st team D.
I don’t want to debate any further, I really enjoy all your posts and definitely have a lot of respect for you. However there are two schools of thought, people who think preseason can be indicative of regular season play, and those that don’t. I believe history has proven the later, but everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Agreed Doom
Maybe I’m putting too much stock in our pre season run D.
I sincerely hope your right, but I fear that your not.
It should be interesting to see in the coming weeks.
I appreciate your comments and your dialogue. Good stuff.
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It is really pleasant
to be able to have civil conversations on the internet of all places. MHR is the best.
With preseason you can grasp a good picture of individual play IMO, and when I analyse our starting line up individually on both sides of the ball, I get very excited.
Pray we don’t get many injuries to our lines or LBs, because the drop off from our starters can be amazingly steep in those areas.
Keep up the amazing work Nick. Hope to see you do some more cross-division posts!! Its always intriguing to read all the responses, because you get them from 4 different perspectives.
Sorry
Bengals game is wrong, for some reason I stopped at 1st quarter.
With second quarter it definitely changes.
5.46 ypc, however outside the 48 yard run, we held them to 1.76 ypc.
I apologize for the misinformation.
However again, even if our run D was spectacular in preseason, it doesn’t matter. The schemes used are not regular season schemes. Wait till we get regular season stats, then we can judge our defense.
We can improve all our stats a lot
if we exclude other teams’ big plays. Big plays are part of what makes an average. I realize our run D was vanilla — this part isn’t aimed at you specifically — but so was everybody else’s, so we were the 32nd best vanilla defense. Do we think that our non-vanilla schemes are so much better than everybody else’s that it will elevate us to, say, the middle of the pack? Were we more vanilla than others? Were we less concerned with winning than evaluation, therefore less inclined to make changes or play calls to help the run D rather than make it easy to evaluate players? This last is a possibility. I’m not saying we won’t be considerably better at run D during the regular season, just trying to bring clarity to the discussion of our run D prospects.
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
Yes, thats why I defined it with the big play first
but overall this preseason, our first team run D was not terrible. And I think I provided the stats to prove that.
Yes, our scheme was vanilla. But also we often held out key starters with the first team, and our 2nd/3rd team absolutely shewed our run D stats to the bottom of the barrel.
And yes, I believe our regular season schemes are going to be MUCH more aggressive than what we have shown. Yes, we were more vanilla than at least the teams that played us. McD acknowledged that some teams were playing more aggressive than usual this preseason. And we all know we were not playing aggressive Ryan style defense so far, but the less tape our opponents have, the better. How many times did you see us stack the box this preseason?
You say we had the 32nd rank run D, and that seems to be what everyone is looking at when they judge our run D. But it doesn’t matter, not one bit. And if you go watch the first team in the games, or at least run through the play by plays, it REALLY isn’t as dire as fans are making it out to be.
We should have faith in our team, even our Run D, and don’t let preseason stats affect that faith. If we get ran over during the regular season, there will be no arguments, from me at least.
Maybe I misremembered
It seemed to me our first team got run on pretty good. It’s too much to say I should have faith, but I have hope (and maybe charity, too). Yes, out 32nd rank in preseason worries me, because I don’t know how much we sandbagged by emphasizing evaluation over winning. And I have memories of us looking bad in preseason at the beginning of the Bates run contain experiment, of being assured that it would be fixed before the season started, and then watching us get run over during the regular season. Even if McDaniels puts less emphasis on winning in preseason than Shanny did, which I think is the case, it’s hard to think that if we’re this bad in preseason that we’ll be anywhere near the top during the season. But of course I’m hoping the preseason is radically unindicative of the regular season.
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
comparisons to last year's D
I find that there’s only a limited amount of value in conclusions drawn from pre-season. It’s a good time to look at individual performances but team performance is a misnomer since it’s often not the starters that we’re seeing and they’re not all playing together at the same time. Because of this, I’m stuck drawing conclusions more from what I see on paper, with some added input based on individual performances when warranted.
An added consideration is whether we’ve addressed the problems from last year. We have. Maybe it’s just me but I see signs of a number of small adjustments that would — presumably — be part of adjustments that we made to help the run defense. For instance, Vickerson rather than Holliday at R-DE. I have to believe that the weakness we exhibited late in the season when teams ran against our weakside (and it was uneven, some were much more successful than others) is part of the reason for having new R-DEs (Peterson, Holliday → Bannan, Vickerson). I’m also high on Mays, and we didn’t have much depth nor experience at ILB last year (Davis, Williams, Woodyard → Haggan, Williams, Mays, Woodyard). There are assorted other changes that I could talk about, such as Jamal Williams and the added experience in the 3-4. It’s problematic to infer improvement but McDaniels seems be the type who never lets a weakness remain one for long.
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
I agree with what you say, ski
But I wonder about the actual DE rotations. I think that we’ll see Bannan and maybe Vickerson on the left end, with McBean and Thomas on the right. At least, I think that’s kind of the way the preseason worked out. The only question mark in that rotation against the run in my mind is Marcus Thomas, but even he’s an upgrade over Holliday in that regard. Either way, there should be improvement from that squad against the run. My new concern is still part of my old concern. Who, at the left outside linebacker spot, will be able to keep contain and maybe shed a blocker and make a tackle? Doom was, quite frankly, atrocious at it last year, and what I’ve seen from Moss doesn’t give me a lot of hope for his play. I didn’t see enough of Hunter (having only had the opportunity to watch the Steelers game on TV) to know for sure if he’s capable. I’m hopeful there. Incidentally, that is the same side that DJ is on, so it could be that unless someone steps up mightily this year, we could be gashed to the weak side again this season. It will help having a DE that doesn’t get collapsed down inside consistently, though.
by BroncosBassist on Sep 9, 2010 5:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Doom was (and Moss is) at right OLB, not left
which lines up across from the offense’s left side. Is that what you meant?
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
Success
the distorting effects of big plays is why raw yardage stats are basically worthless in analyzing the effectiveness of a team in W-L.
Sure, big plays are very valuable, and they can’t be ignored. But one 51 yard run and 9-1 yard runs is generally not as valuable to winning as 10 6-yard runs. The team with 9 1-yard runs was likely punting all over the place (unless those 1 yard runs were in 3 and 1 situations) and maybe has a single field goal or TD to show for it… the consistent team probably had a number of good long drives that put points on the board.
This is where advanced stats like “success rate” and footballoutsider’s DVOA are huge. Unfortunately to interpret our run defense, we need more info such as number of 1st downs, the down/distance situation, etc. Having not seen any of the pre-season games, I can’t tell you more than that…. but I look forward to getting regular season data, and advanced stats to interpret.
TJ?
Wow, we have some stats geeks on here. Love it. Where’s the Dude?
by BroncosBassist on Sep 9, 2010 5:32 AM MDT up reply actions
I think our TEs are better than what you have them at. McDaniels wants blockers at TE. 3-4 defenses mean that you have a rush LB setting up wider. The counter is a blocking TE. Graham is a good blocker and supposedly Quin was as well in TC.
Our WRs have too many young guys to be highly rated. They have the potential but aren’t there yet. I also have a nagging feeling that Eddie had his career year as a rookie and if he is in the slot ala Welker, he’ll be injured. He’ll need to learn to get low and get down like Welker does.
Rest looks good to me. I hope our ST is a 10 this year.
Rich Quinn has been injured
and it remains to be seen how effective he will be, if he plays at all.
Daniel Graham is solid, but other then him we have a bunch of questions.
We like to run 2 TE sets and both Graham and Quinn have been injured. Gronkowski is a total question.
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Quinn played the whole first quarter against the Vikings and did his job.
He was also very open on a number of routes he ran, however the ball was not thrown at him.
The broadcast said Geer started, but Quinn was in there from the second snap on.
Thanks Todd
I wasn’t aware of that. I didn’t see him that much, but I’m glad you saw him.
If that’s the case then we should be okay in TE’s.
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I rewatched the game again this weekend — I had noticed him wiff on a tackle at the goal line [he went to chop the defender down and the defender hurdled him], so I made a note to rewatch the game later to look at his play. I don’t really look at the TE’s during the game too frequently.
On the second watch through, he kept his man away from the backfield when he was supposed to and he ran routes [I assume properly since he was open].
I think Graham is more than solid
He’s one of the best blocking TE’s in the league. I remember one article, it might have been in Bleacher Report, in which the author noted that in McD’s system tight ends block more than pass catch, then we turned around and rated ours a C and parenthetically noted that he was basing his grade on their pass catching ability. Graham is a beast as a blocker, and Quinn was looking awfully good as a blocker before he got injured, so I’d say we should be at least a B for the tight ends, even without Branson. Note that even when healthy and playing well Branson, as our pass-catching tight end, was third on the depth chart.
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
Our Defensive & Offensive units were very vanilla during pre-season...
First things first; NC nice article…
I think everything as you say was played in a way to evaluate the talent and not expose how our defense will play in regular season. I believe the D & STM’s will be even more aggressive against the Jaguars and perform lights out.
But, my concern heading to Florida is RT and RB. How serious is it that we needed to cut Atkins [talented] to add Chris Clark [TTBD] for depth at Tackle who won’t be ready for weeks I suspect that Zane starts in place of Ryan Harris who won’t be ready IMO for quite some time hope I’m wrong. Hopefully Batiste doesn’t have to start for Ryan Clady? Losing Atkins is big mistake barring injuries leaving the D with only 23 players and the offense with 27 for the first game.
With only ONE healthy RB heading into Jacksonville and he has no experience. With Andre Brown as the possible back-up if Moreno or Buck aren’t ready for Sunday. Question is why would we claim Brown who might be suffering turf-toe injury and may not be ready to play on Sunday.
I guess we will see plenty of passing this coming Sunday… and the D must perform at their best for Broncos to WIN on the road. Our record is not very good when starting on the road in Florida.
oc60
"I'd rather have a lot of talent and a little experience than a lot of experience and a little talent." John Wooden
thanks oc
We have certainly been throwing out vanilla defense. All the off season talk about having an aggressive DC in Wink certainly didn’t show in the pre season. But, I feel we will be seeing a lot more out of our defense on Sunday.
I agree with your concerns. RT definitely worries me. Has Zane even taken meaningful snaps at RT? Scary thought. We need help at the position in the worst way.
RB is a worry, but hopefully Knowshon is healthy. If he isn’t, Lance Ball is going to be seeing A LOT of work next weekend.
When all is said and done, fingers crossed that we have a healthy team
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Great analysis nick and rec'd!
One point. he TE position doesn’t really concern me with Josh’s scheme/system there. I think Graham is an under rated blocker who catches the ball on occasion when asked to. I rate the TE’s with a 6 or 7 just on his strengths alone. Quinn is developing as well. TE won’t be a problem this year…
The DLine depends on J Williams’ health. If he stays healthy and Fields steps up a notch (since I feel they played a vanilla D in presaeson) there shouldn’t be any concerns especially with Justin Bannan leading the gang…
Thanks bfree
eh. I’m not so sure. We like to use a lot of 2 TE sets, but Graham has not seen much playing time in the pre season and Quinn has been banged up. We really don’t know what we are getting in Gronkowski yet. I keep my rating the same until either Quinn or Gronkowski step up.
JWill better stay healthy or we are screwed…
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10th rec Nick!
Job well done.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
thanks Horsepower!
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I'm much more optimistic on the RB's than many here....
To me it seems pretty obvious that they have made a conscious decision to rest KM…he struggled with the full season last year, and I think they just want to give him all the rest he can have before a very busy year running the ball. I expect he will see as much, if not more carries than last year.
Buck was brought in for a few plays in MIN, and his speed was a HUGE upgrade over the 3rd and 4th backups. I think he was also held out with the specific intent of saving for games that count.
If you want to get some RB depth next year, I certainly would wait until we shore up the DL, LB and OL needs. :)
Just my 2 cents…..
Thanks for the post!
Officially on record with a 10-6 prediction for 2010! (8/21/10)
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
Nice analysis Nick
but I’m a little less enamored of our O-line – at least until I see some evidence with regular season games. As others have pointed out above, our depth here is very sparse, Harris seems pretty injury-prone, we’re starting a rookie at center and have another newbie on the line to start the year. Clady’s coming back from injury and is an average run blocker (has great potential to improve here however). I think we pass block fairly well, but run blocking is questionable at best. It usually takes a couple of seasons of playing together to get the kind of cohesiveness necessary to really field a top 10 O-line. We shall see – and be hopeful!
Go Broncs!
It's "just" football
Didn't I hear once that games are won and lost in the trenches :-)
That’s what worries me the most, on both sides. Man o man, I hope KO can generate a bunch of sustained drives.
Give a man a fish, and he'll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat for a lifetime.
"Losing stinks" - Josh McDaniels
Great thoughts Nick
OL: Clady and Harris should be absolute “go’s” by week-two at the latest. Even if they’re only 85% for another week or two, they’ll still be far better than the average NFL tackle. Same thing with Kuper. He’ll be playing in week-one and should have his mojo by week-two. The two rookies, Beadles and Walton, seem to have the confidence of the coaches. And they’ve played A LOT in the preseason.
Translation: Our offensive line should be better than fine. Depth is an issue, but as Coach would say, the Denver Broncos certainly aren’t unique in that concern. I’m not going to start worrying about what might happen to ankle down the road.
Linebackers: This is my biggest concern. Dumervil is gone. Haggan is playing a new position. Hunter is our starting OLB on the weakside, although he just came to our team and isn’t used to playing standing up or dropping back. And his backup is the ever under-performing Jarvis Moss is our backup OLB.
Even with Dumervil back next season, and even if Ayers performs as well as he and I expect this year, I still think we draft a linebacker in the first two rounds. Along with a TE and a NT. Assuming we’re drafting for depth and not to replace one of the Ryans, I don’t see it likely to draft OL until late 2nd round, probably third.
It's just about time for us to get out there and win a MF Game!
Most people voted O-Line... really??
Orton looks much better this year and can fire the ball quickly – we can survive with an ugly O-line. Now if we can’t get the ground game going THEN we are in for a LOOOOONG season. Opposing defenses won’t give Orton much if they don’t have to worry about a threat from the backfield. No answer at RB seems to be the largest concern by far.
"It is better to be rougly right than precisely wrong." - John Maynard Keynes
Good rating, I agree with most except I think you have the TE too low
I think the problem is that we don’t use the TE much, but Graham is still a very good force, when used.
D-line is tricky, while I like the starters, I have my doubts they last through the season, and I am not impressed with the depth coming off the bench behind them.
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